Syria hurtling towards a bloodier crisis

[Bernkastel]

From the Guardian.

Syria's uprising stands poised between intensifying international diplomacy that may achieve little and escalating violence that is taking events on the ground to a new and menacing level.

After heavy casualties across the country at the weekend, the focus moves on Tuesday to the UN security council where Arab and western governments are trying to persuade President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Extraordinary scenes of armed rebellion in the suburbs of Damascus – filmed by the BBC, CNN and others in the last few days – have underlined both the gravity of the challenge to the regime and the determination of its opponents to carry on.

The sudden suspension of the Arab League monitoring mission on Saturday marks the end of Arab efforts to resolve the crisis and the start of what Assad most fears – its "internationalisation". Syrian officials made no secret of their satisfaction with a hastily-organised and ill-equipped mission that they were able to manipulate even as it served as a fig leaf for repression. In the shadow of last year's Libyan crisis – when a UN resolution-triggered Nato intervention and eventual regime change in Tripoli – the diplomacy around Syria is being carefully orchestrated and closely observed.

A key moment will come when Nabil al-Arabi, the secretary-general of the Arab League, and Hamed bin Jassim Al Thani, Qatar's prime minister, brief the UN's Ban ki-Moon. That will feed into intense discussion of a draft resolution that could be put to a vote in New York this week. Russia has warned it will block any such resolution, just as it, with China, blocked a previous UN attempt to impose sanctions on Syria.

The draft text, backed by Britain, France and Germany, sticks carefully to the Arab League plan and avoids talk of sanctions, military action or other consequences in a deliberate effort to get Moscow on board. But the signs are not encouraging, with Russian officials complaining about a new formula for "regime change" – since the league plan calls on Assad to hand power to a deputy who would form a unity government with the opposition. If the Russians carry on shielding Assad that will mean there is no significant pressure on him to meet any demands for ending the security crackdown, releasing prisoners or starting a dialogue with the opposition.

And the signs are that the Syrians are already re-imposing the media blackout they maintained for most of the past 10 months. Journalists allowed in on short visas in recent weeks – including the Guardian – were there in partial fulfilment of Assad's deal with the Arab League. But that is now in tatters. BBC and CNN crews have left Damascus.

Allowing the media to operate was a double-edged sword – even if one inescapable conclusion is that the regime still enjoys significant, if unquantifiable, support as Syria slides towards civil war. So chances are that the latest army operations in suburbs of the capital where the Free Syrian Army is operating will not now be screened live on any major international TV networks.

"With no Arab observers and not much media presence left things could now get a lot worse," said a western diplomat. "Any constraining hand has gone. It makes it all the more urgent to achieve something at the UN this week and that can't be taken for granted."

The stakes could hardly be any higher for the bloodiest current chapter of the Arab spring. "The coming few days are critical for #Syria revolution," tweeted activist Wissam Tarif. "Al Assad will turn this into a massive blood bath and humanitarian crisis."

[Baffalo]

Hmm... in all honesty, with the US having pulled out of Iraq and support for Israel starting to slide a bit, I have to wonder how this will affect the region.