Who Will Be Romney's VP Pick?

[Flagg]

I've narrowed the list down to 3:

Paul Ryan
Tim Pawlenty
Rob Portman

So who's it gonna be? My pick is Pawlenty, with Ryan coming in a close second.

[Sea Skimmer]

If I had to choose, Ryan, but I think all of them work out to be the exact same person anyway as far as being national characters, they even come from the same part of the country.

[Mr Bean]

I have 50$ on Rob Portman, I have 20$ that it won't be Paul Ryan because Paul Ryan will say no if asked.

[Flagg]

BREAKING NEWS: Mitt Romney to announce vice presidential pick Saturday at 8:45 a.m. ET

Looks like we'll know tomorrow morning.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

From the objective standpoint of what would improve Romney's chances, and help him keep his foot out of his mouth? Either Pawlenty or Portman (even though both would only serve to polish Romney's "cred" with the Wingut Right GOP base.) From the 'let's show the American people just how pants-on-fire stupid Romney really is' perspective: Paul "My Budget Fucks Poor People" Ryan.

[Flagg]

BREAKING NEWS: Campaign sources indicate Paul Ryan is Romney's VP pick, NBC News reports

Well, guess I was wrong. If this is accurate, Romney can't even announce his VP without fucking it up.

[Flagg]

My take on Romney's choice of Ryan (assuming NBC News knows what the fuck they are talking about, and I think they do) is that he basically picked a male Sarah Palin. He fell into the same fucking trap as John McCain, his campaign is flagging so pick a "game changer". Unfortunately if he'd picked a Pawlenty or Portman he'd have had a boring but unquestioningly qualified running mate. Now he's got a hard rightwing nutjob whose sole job is to haul in votes from other rightwing nutjobs.

[Block]

My take on Romney's choice of Ryan (assuming NBC News knows what the fuck they are talking about, and I think they do) is that he basically picked a male Sarah Palin. He fell into the same fucking trap as John McCain, his campaign is flagging so pick a "game changer". Unfortunately if he'd picked a Pawlenty or Portman he'd have had a boring but unquestioningly qualified running mate. Now he's got a hard rightwing nutjob whose sole job is to haul in votes from other rightwing nutjobs.

I like how they tried to solve Romney's unlikeability by picking an even bigger douchebag that a lot of people openly hate for his terrible budgets.

[Flagg]

My take on Romney's choice of Ryan (assuming NBC News knows what the fuck they are talking about, and I think they do) is that he basically picked a male Sarah Palin. He fell into the same fucking trap as John McCain, his campaign is flagging so pick a "game changer". Unfortunately if he'd picked a Pawlenty or Portman he'd have had a boring but unquestioningly qualified running mate. Now he's got a hard rightwing nutjob whose sole job is to haul in votes from other rightwing nutjobs.

I like how they tried to solve Romney's unlikeability by picking an even bigger douchebag that a lot of people openly hate for his terrible budgets.

But he's young and the right LOVES him, what could possibly go wrong?

[Block]

Yuh, I guess maybe they felt like not enough of those people were going to hold their nose and vote for Mittens? That's the only thing I can think of.

[UnderAGreySky]

So the man whose best claim to fame so far is his attempting to destroy Medicare is going to be Mitt's VP pick? I'm not sure this will play very well with a few of the old folks and all of the young ones. And knowing how good the Obama campaign machine is, they are going to hammer them on this point.

[Mr Bean]

My take on Romney's choice of Ryan (assuming NBC News knows what the fuck they are talking about, and I think they do) is that he basically picked a male Sarah Palin. He fell into the same fucking trap as John McCain, his campaign is flagging so pick a "game changer". Unfortunately if he'd picked a Pawlenty or Portman he'd have had a boring but unquestioningly qualified running mate. Now he's got a hard rightwing nutjob whose sole job is to haul in votes from other rightwing nutjobs.

I like how they tried to solve Romney's unlikeability by picking an even bigger douchebag that a lot of people openly hate for his terrible budgets.

But he's young and the right LOVES him, what could possibly go wrong?

*snip image

Paul Ryan is well spoken and comes off as intelligent, something the Half-Governor could never manage on her best day with a prepared speech.

Paul Ryan is likeable as in that decent guy kind of way the way Sanatorium is likeable, Romney comes off as the literal stereotypical evil CEO in the Saturday morning special. His choices were Portman (The correct choice of those three), Ryan who was number 2 or Pawlenty the I want to lose the election but don't want to make it obvious choice. Hell Pawlenty per 538 pick would make him more likely to lose that state.

[Sea Skimmer]

Yuh, I guess maybe they felt like not enough of those people were going to hold their nose and vote for Mittens? That's the only thing I can think of.

Election campaigns shift the votes of very few people, and this election has been setup to have an especially low shift in my opinion. It isn't about winning voters on the other side, its about making sure your side turns out in enough strength. Ryan might want to fuckover the poor, he also wants to do so in a manner that can be painted as tax cuts/balanced budget and that does attract Republican attention at all levels. None of the reported VP options are going to do anything to help Romney convince Democrats they can stay home.

[Flagg]

So what's the over/under on Ryan running for his House seat "in case" Romney loses?

[Sea Skimmer]

It doesn't make that much sense not to run, its a pretty accepted thing, as for example Obama still ran for senate, and the governor is Republican so the seat is safe for the party if he becomes VP and a replacement is appointed. Letting someone else run for the seat could risk loosing it to a democrat, his home district is on the moderate side.

[Flagg]

It doesn't make that much sense not to run, its a pretty accepted thing, as for example Obama still ran for senate, and the governor is Republican so the seat is safe for the party if he becomes VP and a replacement is appointed. Letting someone else run for the seat could risk loosing it to a democrat, his home district is on the moderate side.

Obama was elected to the Senate in 2004 IIRC. I remember Lieberman getting flak for running for senate reelection in 2000.

[Sea Skimmer]

Yeah you're right, I was thinking about how his senate seat had to be filled in 2008.

[UnderAGreySky]

CNN (and I guess other networks) has just announced that Paul Ryan, indeed, is Romney's VP pick. Let the negative ads begin!

Ezra Klein has a good summary. Some important points:

2. This is an admission of fear from the Romney campaign. You don’t make a risky pick like Paul Ryan if you think the fundamentals favor your candidate. You make a risky pick like Paul Ryan if you think the fundamentals don’t favor your candidate. And, right now, the numbers don’t look good for Romney: Obama leads in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by more than four percentage points — his largest lead since April.

6. Consider the case for Romney until today: He’s a relatively moderate businessman running because his experience in the private-sector gives him crucial insight into how to manage the economy. Now consider Ryan: He’s worked in politics his entire life, beginning as an aide to Sen. Bob Kasten, then working for Sen. Sam Brownback and as a speechwriter to Rep. Jack Kemp. He’s known as a relatively ideological politician who has put forward a detailed policy plan to remake the federal government. It’s a rather different message about what’s important. And how does Romney say the problem with Barack Obama is that he’s “never spent a day in the private sector” and then put Ryan a heartbeat away from the presidency?

7. Ryan upends Romney’s whole strategy. Until now, Romney’s play has been very simple: Don’t get specific. In picking Ryan, he has yoked himself to each and every one of Ryan’s specifics. And some of those specifics are quite…surprising. For instance: Ryan has told the Congressional Budget Office that his budget will bring all federal spending outside Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security to 3.75 percent of GDP by 2050. That means defense, infrastructure, education, food safety, basic research, and food stamps — to name just a few — will be less than four percent of GDP in 2050. To get a sense for how unrealistic that is, Congress has never permitted defense spending to fall below three percent of GDP, and Romney has pledged that he’ll never let defense spending fall beneath four percent of GDP. It will be interesting to hear him explain away the difference.

8. It’s not just that Romney now has to defend Ryan’s budget. To some degree, that was always going to be true. What he will now have to defend is everything else Ryan has proposed. Ryan was, for instance, the key House backer of Social Security privatization. His bill, The Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2005, was so aggressive that it was rejected by the Bush administration. Now it’s Romney’s bill to defend. In Florida.

There's more at the link, but these are the most significant points Ezra makes, IMO.

[eion]

It doesn't make that much sense not to run, its a pretty accepted thing, as for example Obama still ran for senate, and the governor is Republican so the seat is safe for the party if he becomes VP and a replacement is appointed. Letting someone else run for the seat could risk loosing it to a democrat, his home district is on the moderate side.

I don't think replacements get appointed in the House. I would think there'd be a special election, just like when a congressmen resigns in the middle of their term.

As for Romney's choice. I think Joe Biden is going to rip Paul Ryan apart in the Veep Debate.

[Dalton]

Replacements are appointed by the state governor as I recall.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

So he picked Paul "I Like Fucking Poor People" Ryan. Maybe this means I can actually vote my conscience this election cycle, instead of my original plan to vote Obama just to keep the GOP out of the White House? Nah, American politics demands that Americans vote with their limbic systems and not with their neocorticies. As has been said, Paul Ryan is too extreme for even more than a few Republicans ... so I think I can sleep a little better.

[eion]

Replacements are appointed by the state governor as I recall.

I looked it up finally (don't know why I didn't before)

When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

So Governors are explicitly forbidden to appoint a replacement to fill the vacancy it seems. So Ryan will be costing his state extra money if he wins reelection to his House seat and the Vice Presidency. How lovely.

[Guardsman Bass]

Ryan's not surprising. He's popular with the conservatives, and young - if by some unfortunate chance Mitt Romney were to win two terms, Ryan could run at age 50 for the Presidency.

[Terralthra]

Replacements are appointed by the state governor as I recall.

I looked it up finally (don't know why I didn't before)

When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

So Governors are explicitly forbidden to appoint a replacement to fill the vacancy it seems. So Ryan will be costing his state extra money if he wins reelection to his House seat and the Vice Presidency. How lovely.

Forbidden? That's the exact opposite of what that says. The Executive Authorite (governor) issues a writ (appoints) to fill such a vacancy.

[eion]

Writs of ELECTION. As in, hold an election to decide who gets the seat. Go here and look at all the House vacancies and see how they were filled. All special elections.

For comparison, here's the part of the Constitution talking about vaccencies in the Senate

Immediately after they shall be assembled in Consequence of the first Election, they shall be divided as equally as may be into three Classes. The Seats of the Senators of the first Class shall be vacated at the Expiration of the second Year, of the second Class at the Expiration of the fourth Year, and of the third Class at the Expiration of the sixth Year, so that one third may be chosen every second Year; and if Vacancies happen by Resignation, or otherwise, during the Recess of the Legislature of any State, the Executive thereof may make temporary Appointments until the next Meeting of the Legislature, which shall then fill such Vacancies.

Notice how it explicitly tells the Governor to appoint a temporary replacement?

The West Wing made the same mistake in "Mr. Willis of Ohio" where they had the governor appoint a dead woman's husband to her House seat.