House Maj. Leader Eric Cantor loses primary

[Maraxus]

GOP House Majority Leader and noted all around nice guy Eric Cantor has lost his House seat to a little-known and less-funded Tea Party challenger.

Eric Cantor Defeated By Tea Party Candidate In Virginia Primary

By Scott Neuman

NPR.org, June 10, 2014 · House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has lost his Republican primary in Virginia's 7th congressional district to tea party challenger David Brat — a stunning upset that will re-write the leadership of the chamber's GOP leadership.

With all but a few of the precincts reporting, Brat, an economics professor, was leading Cantor by 55 percent to 44 percent of the vote.

"I know there's a lot of long faces here tonight, and it's disappointing, sure," Cantor said, speaking to supporters. "I believe in this country, I believe there's opportunity around the next corner for all of us."

NPR's Ron Elving calls the defeat of Cantor, who was widely expected to eventually replace House Speaker John Boehner, "Truly stunning and all but unprecedented for a speaker-in-waiting."

Politico says that Brat tapped into "strong anti-incumbent fever that has taken over Cantor's Richmond-area district."

Although Cantor is a conservative and has been close to the tea party, "in the past two years they've been angered by his shift to support for some kind of immigration reform. Brat made that an issue, saying Cantor was no longer a real conservative," NPR's Don Gonyea says.

Even so, "Going into the elections, most Republicans had been watching for how broad Mr. Cantor's victory would be, with almost no one predicting that he would lose," The New York Times says.

The Washington Post, in an article earlier today said Cantor was expected to prevail, but acknowledged that Brat had "exposed discontent with Cantor in the solidly Republican, suburban Richmond 7th Congressional District by attacking the lawmaker on his votes to raise the debt ceiling and end the government shutdown, as well as his support for some immigration reforms."

Reuters says Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, heavily outspent his opponent, who managed to raised just over $200,000 for his campaign, according to his most recent campaign finance reports.

The Associated Press says:

"[Cantor's] loss to Dave Brat, a political novice with little money marks a huge victory for the tea party movement, which supported Cantor just a few years ago."

"Brat had been a thorn in Cantor's side on the campaign ... Last month, a feisty crowd of Brat supporters booed Cantor in front of his family at a local party convention."

The Hill calls Cantor's defeat "perhaps the most significant jolt to the Republican establishment since the emergence of the Tea Party in 2009."

"While conservative activists have ousted veteran Republicans like Sens. Bob Bennett (Utah) and Richard Lugar (Ind.), a sitting majority leader has never been defeated in a primary election."

"As recently as Friday, Cantor and his team in Virginia projected confidence."

"'I'm just not worried,' Cantor's Richmond-based political adviser, Ray Allen, told The Hill. Cantor's own polling showed him with a comfortable lead."

"Brat told The Hill he was 'peaking at exactly the right time.'"

Holy Shit.

[The Romulan Republic]

On the one hand, I despise Cantor. On the other hand, I hate any victory for the Tea Party, and God help us if Cantor is now considered not conservative enough.

[Mr Bean]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I cheer anytime any of the current crop of Republican or Democratic party leadership loses a primary. And the Majority Leader losing his seat is worth twice the cheer.
However I'll note when Eric Cantor (who was bad at his job) going down I have to say that means the field is wide open as to who will replace him. Seriously he was the lesser of four evils and without him in control the House just got interesting again.


*Edit
And as far as the current crop of Republican leadership Cantor was the best at selling the fact he was not crazy.

[General Zod]

On the other hand, the new guy is running on an anti-immigration platform.

[Pelranius]

Boehner will have a lot of trouble keeping the Tea Party in line now....

Shutdown in 2015? (Assuming that Boehner stays on).

[Maraxus]

On the other hand, the new guy is running on an anti-immigration platform.

Yeah but immigration reform was never happening anyway. What's one more anti-immigrant Republican in a larger heap of anti-immigrant Republicans?

IMO the bigger loser tonight is Boehner. Cantor served as Boehner's interpreter whenever he wanted to talk to the savages over in the Republican Study Committee. He was also apparently the main go-between for a couple of big legislative priorities, like raising the debt ceiling or passing a Voting Rights Act fix. Now that Cantor's gone, Boehner's going to have to watch his back even more than usual around the "conservatives."

Oh and the election to replace Cantor as Majority Leader is probably going to get ugly.

[Esquire]

Well, the challenger will win the general election - my family's from that district; a more conservative hellhole there isn't - so we'll get to have a Mr. Brat as a Republican congressman. That's worth something.

[The Romulan Republic]

Boehner will have a lot of trouble keeping the Tea Party in line now....

Shutdown in 2015? (Assuming that Boehner stays on).

A shutdown would be horrible, but America's handled shutdowns before, and a shutdown might have the up side of hurting the Republicans in the 2016 elections.

What really scares me is the possibility of a default on the debt.

[Simon_Jester]

On some level, the whole thing makes me think "Live by the sword, die by the sword." When you rose to power by appealing to radicals, you are always in danger from those radicals, and cannot escape.

I'm worried about a default too. On the other hand, this may rattle Boehner into saying "fuck it" and deciding that he'd rather lead a bipartisan centrist coalition than a fractious band of lunatics whose idea of governance is to play chicken repeatedly until they crash the system.

Why no, I'm not just whistling in the dark...

[Borgholio]

Although nobody in the government is really all that popular right now, I'm sure a good number of Americans still remember the GOP-led government shutdown and if they try it a second time, there would be a great deal of hell to pay. There is also a (remote) possibility that as more Tea Partiers are exposed to the reality of how Congress works, they will have to scale back their rhetoric to more closely match what they can actually accomplish.

[Simon_Jester]

Although nobody in the government is really all that popular right now, I'm sure a good number of Americans still remember the GOP-led government shutdown and if they try it a second time, there would be a great deal of hell to pay. There is also a (remote) possibility that as more Tea Partiers are exposed to the reality of how Congress works, they will have to scale back their rhetoric to more closely match what they can actually accomplish.

Hasn't happened yet as far as I know.

Am I wrong? I think I'd like that.

[Edi]

The Tea Party does not inhabit reality. Therefore any argument based on reality is utterly meaningless against them. The only thing that matters to them is the mythology they have built up around their movement and what they want to hear. Facts don't matter and that will not change until their demographic is sufficiently demolished by time that they become marginal enough. Won't be for years yet.

[Irbis]

Although nobody in the government is really all that popular right now

Obligatory statistic:



You were saying?

And yet, there are people who still say USA is democracy and not gerrymandocracy...

[Guardsman Bass]

The popularity of Congress doesn't seem to translate down into the popularity of particular Congresspeople, who can remain quite popular (or unpopular). And yeah, there's always been a strong incumbency bias in American politics. It only gets flipped when someone gets knocked out a in primary, or during wave election years for an opposing party.

[Welf]

Yeah but immigration reform was never happening anyway. What's one more anti-immigrant Republican in a larger heap of anti-immigrant Republicans?

Afaik Cantor was anti-immigration, to. It just wasn't the centre of his platform and he publicly sometimes said he might consider it. So it's more of a zero sum game.

A shutdown would be horrible, but America's handled shutdowns before, and a shutdown might have the up side of hurting the Republicans in the 2016 elections.

What really scares me is the possibility of a default on the debt.

A shutdown would be horrible, but a default would be apocalyptic. Either the international financial system would break even more than in 2008, or Obama would ignore a longstanding (if extremly stupid) parliamentary tradition, weakening congress even more and strengthening the presidency.

[Irbis]

It only gets flipped when someone gets knocked out a in primary, or during wave election years for an opposing party.

Not necessarily even then - Cantor might have lost the primary, but everyone acts like that Brat guy already won election for the same party, and, given nicely carved district, it's probably true.

@Welf - didn't someone invented half a dozen of ways of getting around it, including infamous platinum coin?

[Welf]

It only gets flipped when someone gets knocked out a in primary, or during wave election years for an opposing party.

Not necessarily even then - Cantor might have lost the primary, but everyone acts like that Brat guy already won election for the same party, and, given nicely carved district, it's probably true.

@Welf - didn't someone invented half a dozen of ways of getting around it, including infamous platinum coin?

Pff, "platinum coins". Creating physical objects is sooo 19th century. I think they were planing to sell options on those coins.
And I think there is even amendment saying the USA may not default. But the US presidency is powerful enough, and no one knows what presidentess Jenna or Barbara Bush will do with that power in 2024.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah but immigration reform was never happening anyway. What's one more anti-immigrant Republican in a larger heap of anti-immigrant Republicans?

Afaik Cantor was anti-immigration, to. It just wasn't the centre of his platform and he publicly sometimes said he might consider it. So it's more of a zero sum game.

A shutdown would be horrible, but America's handled shutdowns before, and a shutdown might have the up side of hurting the Republicans in the 2016 elections.

What really scares me is the possibility of a default on the debt.

A shutdown would be horrible, but a default would be apocalyptic. Either the international financial system would break even more than in 2008, or Obama would ignore a longstanding (if extremly stupid) parliamentary tradition, weakening congress even more and strengthening the presidency.

What could Obama do? And if he tried to deal with a default without Congress's approval, wouldn't that simply give the Republicans a no doubt longed for pretext to impeach him?

[Simon_Jester]

They'd lose. The Democratic minority in the House is easily large enough to block an impeachment attempt, and it would be blatantly divided along partisan lines.

[Maraxus]

Yeah basically. None of the sensible Republicans want an impeachment, unless it's raising lots of money from stupid people. John Boehner had a leadership job back in the mid-late 1990's, and grouchy conservatives cast him out because they didn't have the votes to fire Gingrich or Dick Armey. He had to claw his way back to the leadership over the next decade, largely because the House GOP was dumb enough to impeach Clinton on far more salacious charges.

It only gets flipped when someone gets knocked out a in primary, or during wave election years for an opposing party.

Not necessarily even then - Cantor might have lost the primary, but everyone acts like that Brat guy already won election for the same party, and, given nicely carved district, it's probably true.

Eh, redistricting's overrated as a way of keeping the GOP in power. Brat's won because Cantor represents one of the most reflextively conservative areas of Virgina, and that'd be true whether or not he had a "fair" district. Cantor's voters are the OG Republicans in Virginia, and they haven't really supported Democrats since the 80's. Nowadays Cantor's voters NEVER vote for Democrats and they probably never will.

At least a few long-term incumbents always lose in midterm elections. Most of the time they just get caught napping, and that's probably what happened here. Cantor tried to keep a foot in the Tea Party camp and the Grown Up GOP camp and apparently just annoyed everyone.

[Welf]

What could Obama do? And if he tried to deal with a default without Congress's approval, wouldn't that simply give the Republicans a no doubt longed for pretext to impeach him?

Absolutely nothing. He is both forced by law to spend money and not borrow money. He probably simply is legally required to use the Platinum Coin option. Or ignore the debt limit. Either way, it's never good for democratic system when the elected parliament shows incompetence and/or disdain for the public good, and a Strong Leader needs to save the day. It's good the first time, but sets a bad precedent. Probably the reason why Obama and the FED refused to use the platinum coin last time. Not that it's a good sign when the executive needs to preserve the power of the legislative so it can keep on controlling the executive.

[Crossroads Inc.]

You know... this whole situation reminds me of something my dad said long ago:

"When Liberals loose, they think it was because they were TOO Liberal.
When Conservatives loose, they think it was because they were NOT Conservatives ENOUGH"

Personally I think Cantor lost because he's just an asshole

[Eulogy]

Personally I think Cantor lost because he's just an asshole

Alas, modern politics are not that reliable. Otherwise, we wouldn't have half the shit that's going on now.

[Lord MJ]

Cenk Uygur at the Young Turks seems to think that the reason Cantor lost is not because of immigration, but because Brat was able to campaign against crony capitalism, Washington serving the needs of Wall Street instead of the people, etc.

Cantor's district polls show the majority support some kind of immigration reform. Even among Republicans (though not necessarily the Republicans that showed up to vote in the primary)

[Edi]

Indeed, and it's the ones who show up in the primaries that determine the course of the entire party. Those are the most extreme fanatics in the Republican base for the most part.

It's also the reason why the Republican party gives everything to those extremists: Their representatives are scared shitless of challenges from the right unless they appease the extremists.

Democrat voters should take the same tack: Every time someone fails to deliver, primary them from the left and instill a similar fear of the voter base. Right now there is no incentive for Democrat reps to do what their base actually wants because they take those votes for granted.

Another thing that the Democrats fail to do: Reliably show up in ALL elections. Doesn't matter if it's the position of municipal rat catcher in Bumfuck Nowhere, everyone who wants to influence things should vote. Voter apathy on the left is the reason why so many districts are represented by people with far more right wing views than the people whose interests they supposedly serve.