Kurds push for independence vote amid Iraq chaos

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... ud-barzani

Kurds push for independence vote amid Iraq chaos
Massoud Barzani, president of autonomous Kurdish region, calls on Iraqi MPs to plan for independence referendum

Martin Chulov in Baghdad and Fazel Hawramy in Irbil
The Guardian, Friday 4 July 2014 04.06 AEST

Iraq inched closer to partition on Thursday as the president of the country's autonomous Kurdish region asked MPs to start making plans for an independence referendum.

Speaking in the Kurdish parliament in Irbil, Massoud Barzani said he no longer felt bound by the Iraqi constitution, which enshrines the unity of the state, and asked MPs to start preparations for a vote on the right of self-determination, which would represent the Kurds' boldest move towards statehood in 94 years.

"The time has come to determine our fate and we should not wait for other people to determine it for us," Barzani said. The Kurds' historic ambition for a nation state has been given new momentum by the lightning advance of Sunni militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) – and Iraqi politicians' inability to act decisively in the face of the insurgent threat.

Iraq's national flag is now rarely seen in northern Iraq, and the Kurdish colours have been raised above all government buildings in Kirkuk, which Kurdish forces seized when the Iraqi army fled in the face of the Isis advance two weeks ago.

Government forces clashed again on Thursday with Isis militants near Tikrit, the home town of Saddam Hussein, which the army has been trying to retake for more than a week.

Kurdish fighters have engaged with Isis largely to defend Kurdish interests. In his speech Barzani said: "We will try to help our Shia and Sunni brothers … to get out of this crisis, but to be truthful we will [be responsible for] a new people [Kurds] who believe in coexistence, democracy and constitution. We will not deal with those who sabotaged the country."

Earlier this week, Barzani suggested that an independence referendum could be held within two months, a move that would redraw Iraq's current borders and in all likelihood spread deep instability in what remained of the country.

The fallout would be unlikely to stop there: Turkey, Iran and Syria are all skittish about Kurdish claims to sovereignty. Turkey, in particular, has fought a decades-long and bloody insurgency against Kurdish separatists in its south-east, who would be keenly watching developments.

Barzani insisted that years of Kurdish self-government had proved that they posed no threat to neighbouring countries. "We have many friends and supporters. There may be risk in this, but it is the right moment for us to tell the world what we want."

Iraqi Arab officials in Baghdad attempted to play down Barzani's comments, claiming he was simply attempting to gain leverage in the formation of a national government, in which Kurdish MPs comprise a significant minority.

Barzani and the Iraqi prime minister, Nour al-Maliki, have been at odds for much of the past three years and the Kurdish leader has insisted that Kurds will not join another Maliki-led administration.

Earlier this week, Sunni and Kurdish parties withdrew their MPs from Iraq's national parliament, when Shia politicians refused to name their candidate to replace Maliki as prime minister before the Sunni and Kurdish MPs revealed their own nominations for speaker. The standoff underscored the deep divisions that run through the fragile state's political class.

But in Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, Barzani's remarks were seen by officials as significantly more than brinkmanship. Kurdish MP Haji Karwan Najmadin said: "What came out of the president's speech is that we don't accept orders from any countries. We support the declaration of Kurdistan statehood. It should not be delayed – this is the right time, but we just need a preparation and that is for people to vote on this issue."

Barzani said Iraq should look to the precedent of Czechoslovakia, which peacefully separated into two countries following the end of communism. "Czechoslovakia was comprised of two peoples and they were forced together to establish a state. Because it was forced upon them, they separated again," he said. "There is a lesson here: they cannot oppress the people of Kurdistan and then say we must remain united."

Another MP in the Kurdistan regional government warned that there was still a gulf between Kurdish ambitions and reality. Mahmoud Haji Omar said Iran and Arab countries would oppose independence, not least because Israel has expressed support for Kurdish sovereignty. Earlier this week, Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, endorsed Kurdish ambitions for statehood.

But Omar said Turkey, which had long been vehemently opposed to Kurdish statehood because of potential implications for its borders, had softened its stance in recent years. "They have expressed flexibility on this issue maybe because of the oil," he said.

Over the past year, the Kurdish regional government has been directly selling oil to Turkey despite an agreement with the central government that all oil should be marketed and exported nationally.

What are the implications for Turkey?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I think Turkey knows more than they are letting on.

[K. A. Pital]

I support. Kurds are secularists compared to their enemies.

[montypython]

The Syrian Kurds may need to hop onboard too given the increasing instability caused by all the fighting.

[Thanas]

The Kurds have managed to cconquer a nice bit of territory in the last weeks. This is their best chance for getting out and becoming independent.

I wonder how Turkey would react though.

[Captain Seafort]

I wonder how Turkey would react though.

My gut reaction would be "badly". An Iraqi Kurdish UDI has the potential to undo all the negotiations of the last few years.

[xerex]

I wonder how Turkey would react though.

My gut reaction would be "badly". An Iraqi Kurdish UDI has the potential to undo all the negotiations of the last few years.

I'd disagree. Everything ive read indicates that Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds have very good relations down to Turkey helping the Kurds sell their oil bypassing the Iraqi govt and the Iraqi Kurds sidelining the PKK.


I think the Turks are ready to bite the bullet and back a Kurdish buffer state if there is a guarantee that it will not make any claims on Turkey. Such a state would be economically dependent on Turkey in any case.

[K. A. Pital]

I think the Turks are ready to bite the bullet and back a Kurdish buffer state if there is a guarantee that it will not make any claims on Turkey. Such a state would be economically dependent on Turkey in any case.

Uh... You know that when you give sovereignity, even if you think the state in question is a total economic pawn of yours and a dependent, it won't always be that way? Sovereignity, once given, cannot be easily taken back. It is an irreversible act. So, once Kurdistan exists, Turkey will get a state that is full of people who actually understand that their minority in Turkey has been oppressed for a long time. And that state will be independent; with an army, an intelligence, and the ability to enter treaties with other nations.

[xerex]

I think the Turks are ready to bite the bullet and back a Kurdish buffer state if there is a guarantee that it will not make any claims on Turkey. Such a state would be economically dependent on Turkey in any case.

Uh... You know that when you give sovereignity, even if you think the state in question is a total economic pawn of yours and a dependent, it won't always be that way? Sovereignity, once given, cannot be easily taken back. It is an irreversible act. So, once Kurdistan exists, Turkey will get a state that is full of people who actually understand that their minority in Turkey has been oppressed for a long time. And that state will be independent; with an army, an intelligence, and the ability to enter treaties with other nations.

I doubt very much the Turks are giving the Kurds sovereignty. They're taking that for themselves .

More like trying to make the best of a bad situation. What's the alternative ? Occupying Kurdistan ?

[Purple]

I think the Turks are ready to bite the bullet and back a Kurdish buffer state if there is a guarantee that it will not make any claims on Turkey. Such a state would be economically dependent on Turkey in any case.

Uh... You know that when you give sovereignity, even if you think the state in question is a total economic pawn of yours and a dependent, it won't always be that way? Sovereignity, once given, cannot be easily taken back. It is an irreversible act. So, once Kurdistan exists, Turkey will get a state that is full of people who actually understand that their minority in Turkey has been oppressed for a long time. And that state will be independent; with an army, an intelligence, and the ability to enter treaties with other nations.

Maybe they are counting on that happening? As in hoping that once they get a nation of their own the Kurd minority will just leave Turkey and go to their new homeland?

[Edi]

I've also read that Turkey is more or less an ally of the Iraqi Kurds. The creation of an independent Iraqi Kurdistan carved out of the Iraq and possibly some sections of northern Syria under Kurdish control is not necessarily a bad thing from Turkey's point of view if they can keep things friendly.

I don't know how much in the way of easily extracted minerals or other valuable resources there are in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, but if there are not, in the long run Turkey may even see it as an option to give the Kurds a small amount of territory that would allow them to also dump the most troublesome bits of their own Kurdish minority into the new state. They'd get rid of a bloody rebellion, internal instability and other issues for relatively little cost. Of course, states are usually rather loath to part with any territory, so that is a less likely outcome.

In any case, a stable independent Kurdistan is going to be much preferable to an unstable patchwork of tatters made up of what remains of Iraq and Syria, where each region is controlled by the warlord/faction of the day.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I've also read that Turkey is more or less an ally of the Iraqi Kurds. The creation of an independent Iraqi Kurdistan carved out of the Iraq and possibly some sections of northern Syria under Kurdish control is not necessarily a bad thing from Turkey's point of view if they can keep things friendly.

I don't know how much in the way of easily extracted minerals or other valuable resources there are in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, but if there are not, in the long run Turkey may even see it as an option to give the Kurds a small amount of territory that would allow them to also dump the most troublesome bits of their own Kurdish minority into the new state. They'd get rid of a bloody rebellion, internal instability and other issues for relatively little cost. Of course, states are usually rather loath to part with any territory, so that is a less likely outcome.

In any case, a stable independent Kurdistan is going to be much preferable to an unstable patchwork of tatters made up of what remains of Iraq and Syria, where each region is controlled by the warlord/faction of the day.

There is no doubt some kind of under the table agreement that both sides made really. I seriously doubt the Kurds will commit to independence without some kind of blessing from Turkey. Might include uprooting the Kurds in Turkey and placing them in Kurdistan though, and thus solve Turkey's Kurdish problem for good.

[Thanas]

The question is though whether the Kurds in Turkey would be okay with that. Not all kurdish factions are of the same mind after all.

[Welf]

Uh... You know that when you give sovereignity, even if you think the state in question is a total economic pawn of yours and a dependent, it won't always be that way? Sovereignity, once given, cannot be easily taken back. It is an irreversible act. So, once Kurdistan exists, Turkey will get a state that is full of people who actually understand that their minority in Turkey has been oppressed for a long time. And that state will be independent; with an army, an intelligence, and the ability to enter treaties with other nations.

That's what Ukraine thought, too.

I think for the Turkish government it's now just choosing between lesser evils (or "evils" since kurdish independence isn't relly an evil). In the south the have Sunni Islamists they have no more control over, in the east a ever stronger Iran, and they pissed of the military in Egypt by supporting Morsi. If they support kurdish independence they have chance to win ally that stabilizes the east boarder and will be a puffer against Iran. The short-term "downside" is that they have to threat the Kurdish minority well and develop that region. Long-term they might loose that region. There are 14-15 million Kurds in Turkey and only 5 million in the Kurdistan.

[cosmicalstorm]

Sometimes I get the feeling that whatever the choice, Turkey will pick the worst option. They seem incredibly incompetent.