Tusk European Council president?

[Irbis]

Looks all but confirmed, likely pushed to the spot by anti-Russian lobby. If so, I really hope he grows a spine and becomes true, non-populist leader, or both EU and Poland are utterly fucked

Who I am kidding, Kaczyński will do his damnedest to ensure we're fucked anyway...

[Siege]

I suspect it's not so much intended as an anti-Russian signal (although that sure is a nice bonus) as a 'new EU states are people too' signal. Van Rompuy and Ashton were both very much 'old Europe'; the appointment of a Pole and an Italian to respectively Council President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs seems to me a clear signal of inclusivity to both Eastern and Southern Europe.

[K. A. Pital]

Why would the EU be 'fucked' just because a Pole leads the EC? I have to agree with Siege, it is a much needed step to give some trust to Eastern Europe. Show them that their politicians can also be included and take key positions. Even if he's rabidly anti-Russian, the harm cannot exceed some trade losses. Which are small enough, and Russia needs EU trade much more right now, as the Great Leap Eastwards is nowhere near completion.

[Irbis]

I suspect it's not so much intended as an anti-Russian signal (although that sure is a nice bonus) as a 'new EU states are people too' signal.

Sort of, and while it was certainly a factor, Tusk was head of informal 'counterweight to pro-Putin Italian female politician' list. It included other Eastern European leaders, I suspect he was picked mostly after UK and other Russian sceptics choose him. While I don't oppose Tusk that much, anyone who got Cameron's support is suspect.

Though, I might just be overreacting, I guess, last 2 days Polish press was full of crowing how this choice shown Putin how big loser he is and how EU will now anschluss GUAAM overnight, both of which looking really stupid to anyone sane.

Why would the EU be 'fucked' just because a Pole leads the EC?

Because the man is a populist?

Not populist-populist, but sort of like Merkel, 'watch public polls before doing anything' populist. Add to that the foreign languages are not his strong side, and you get recipe for rather weak and pliable leadership, even if Donald Tusk was quite ruthless at home politics.

Plus, he like Merkel is supporter of austerity and conservatism. Weak right wing leader doesn't strike me as what the EU needs right now, but hopefully, I might be wrong and he lives up to the task. Hopefully

[K. A. Pital]

Merkel is a right-winger, but a competent one. If you wanted to impress me with a bad example, you failed.

[Siege]

Sort of, and while it was certainly a factor, Tusk was head of informal 'counterweight to pro-Putin Italian female politician' list.

Personally I think her 'pro-Putinism' is an overblown accusation, to be honest. I'm certainly no expert, but everything I've read about Federica Mogherini so far is pretty admirable. Indeed some of the criticism feels like right-wingers are reaching for any excuse to denounce the appointment of a social-democrat, or else it's people daydreaming of a High Representative who will slam her shoe on the table and call Putin names. And that wasn't ever going to happen anyway.

With her appointment the top of the EU is (or rather will be come November) Tusk (center-right), Jean-Claude Juncker (center-right) and Mogherini (left). All things considered that's pretty balanced.

I honestly don't think Putin has anything to do with any of these appointments. The sense I get is it's already hard enough to create a broad pan-Union consensus, so very little thought is given to how palatable the appointees are outside the EU. It is a very inwardly-focused process with a ludicrous amount of internal European political jockeying involved, and I suspect Brussels isn't really considering the current crisis when making long-term appointments.

It included other Eastern European leaders, I suspect he was picked mostly after UK and other Russian sceptics choose him. While I don't oppose Tusk that much, anyone who got Cameron's support is suspect.

I agree and I will defer to your expertise with regards to what kind of politician Tusk is, but I will say that it looks to me that Cameron lost super hard this time around. He didn't want Juncker appointed and Juncker got appointed anyway, plus Ashton will be gone and a leftie is taking her place. Having a sympathetic ear as Council President is a consolation prize at most.

[Irbis]

Personally I think her 'pro-Putinism' is an overblown accusation, to be honest. I'm certainly no expert, but everything I've read about Federica Mogherini so far is pretty admirable. Indeed some of the criticism feels like right-wingers are reaching for any excuse to denounce the appointment of a social-democrat, or else it's people daydreaming of a High Representative who will slam her shoe on the table and call Putin names. And that wasn't ever going to happen anyway.

I agree, which is why I thought the criticism was so stupid.

With her appointment the top of the EU is (or rather will be come November) Tusk (center-right), Jean-Claude Juncker (center-right) and Mogherini (left). All things considered that's pretty balanced.

Maybe, but seeing problems Hollande has and the fact UK and Germany have leaders close to Tusk, I am not that optimistic.

I honestly don't think Putin has anything to do with any of these appointments.

Possibly, after all, pool of candidates is quite limited. That was other reason why Polish news reporting looked dumb as I said in last post.

Though, upon thinking, Tusk moving to EU had some silver lining, after all. Rabid right religious right that already was seeing their victory next year is now barking mad they don't get to humiliate him and already making conspiracy theories it was reward from Merkel for loyally administering German protectorate

I agree and I will defer to your expertise with regards to what kind of politician Tusk is, but I will say that it looks to me that Cameron lost super hard this time around. He didn't want Juncker appointed and Juncker got appointed anyway, plus Ashton will be gone and a leftie is taking her place. Having a sympathetic ear as Council President is a consolation prize at most.

Maybe? I'd say it was more of a win for Merkel than loss for Cameron, but UK really lost a lot of EU influence under him.

I am not saying Tusk is bad, he is quite competent, but 20% of his decisions were either badly thought moves or concession to backwards movements in his own party, like part of Ministry of Justice openly sabotaging separation of church and state and being unpunished for it. I don't know, I am just saying he has a lot of dirt in his closet.

Merkel is a right-winger, but a competent one. If you wanted to impress me with a bad example, you failed.

One, I said Merkel-lite, less decisive and even more tied to opinion polls. Though, even Merkel did dumb decisions based on it, see nuclear power in Germany. Two, even Merkel would be out of her depth and less effective after sudden assignment to higher post she didn't prepare for and had problems with languages used in it.

Three, Merkel's austerity ideas are criticized all over EU and a lot of economists agree it wasn't good idea after all. Four, not even Germans seem to agree with you. Opinions I get were that Germany is tired with Merkel, and she wins on weakness of her opponents and stabbing any possible rival she has in her own party, not on her merits alone.

Also, to answer your question in more detail, with Tusk leaving, Kaczynski (leader of nationalist, religious populist party) has a lot better chance of taking over as PM next year and destabilize EU in that way, too. Last time he was in power was when Polish government was ridiculed virtually everywhere outside of Tea Party meetings.

[Siege]

Maybe, but seeing problems Hollande has and the fact UK and Germany have leaders close to Tusk, I am not that optimistic.

I agree in the sense that it's deeply frustrating to see the European left fail to capitalize on a crisis brought about by the irresponsibility of laissez-faire jackoffs and their wanker banker friends. For that however I chiefly fault the current crop of social-democrats, a (warning: broad brush incoming) bunch of technocratic regents with the charm of a piece of cardboard who let right-wing demagogues run roughshod over their principles and ideals (if they even remember what any of those are, which in some cases I doubt).

Also Hollande's problem seems to be more like he made crazy campaign promises that there was no way he could keep, and now people are pissed off that he's not keeping them .

[Thanas]

I think you two are forgetting another high-profile appointment which will soon change heads and which gives this jockeying a whole other level - the head of Nato will soon be Stoltenberg, somebody who is Russian-friendly and also not somebody who likes to go hawkish on Russia. So we got the following posts:

Nato - Stoltenberg to replace the hawk Rasmussen
European council - Tusk
EU foreign policy - Mogherini
And of course Juncker.

That sounds a very balanced slate of appointments overall. And it makes sense to view Tusk as a concession to eastern Europe in that light - if it had been another central European or pro-Russian politician it would probably not be taken very well in the capitals of the Eastern Europeans and even less so in the Baltics.