US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

Lets summarise this.

Rising power such including China wants to change the voting rights in the IMF to reflect the fact that if you believe clout in the IMF is dependent on economic power, then rising powers should get more. The US has been unwilling or unable to get this change. So China decided in 2013 to set up its own bank called the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). It plans to start off with $50 billion dollars of which China will provide half and own 50% of its shares. While the funds is somewhat lesser than the IMF, it will focus in on infrastructure projects only.

Despite reports that the IMF itself welcomes the competition or help depending on how you look at it, the US has been lobbying behind the scenes to get countries to not join the AIIB. A proposition its denied of course, but from Australian news, we were pretty much approached by the US. Publicly the US has merely "raised concerns" about standards and not told anyone not to join. Except when they did.

You see, after they US managed to convince Australia not to join (in what was a very heated debate in Australia's cabinet) the UK suddenly up and decided to join. Then the Obama administration rebuked the UK (BBC, FT) for doing so, even though they haven't really told anyone not to join the AIIB.

Anyway soon after that, other American allies decided to join. Germany, France, and Italy joined and financial centre Luxembourg is now applying to join. SK is now "seriously considering the issue" and Australia is reconsidering (some predict it will join).

Financial times provided good analysis and calls it a Diplomatic debacle which makes America look isolated and petulant. The Diplomat calls it AIIB disaster.

The Washington Posts (not sure how reliable they are) calls it Diplomatic disaster The Washington post doesn't limit the number of articles you can view like FT, so I will post their article here.
Diplomatic disaster: Obama humiliated by allies’ rush to join China’s new bank
Britain, France, Germany, Italy sign on as Beijing courts Australia, South Korea

The battle of wills between Beijing and Washington over a China-sponsored development bank for Asia is turning into a rout, and the Obama administration has found itself isolated and embarrassed as its top allies lined up this week to join the proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

In what one analyst dubbed a “diplomatic disaster” for the U.S., Britain became the first major European ally to sign on as a founding member of the Shanghai-based investment bank, joined quickly by France, Germany and Italy, which dismissed public and private warnings from the U.S. about the bank’s potential impact on global lending standards and the competition it could provide to existing institutions such as the U.S.-dominated World Bank.

Luxembourg, a major global financial center, revealed this week that it would sign up. China also is also wooing Australia and South Korea, two of America’s closest Asian allies, to join before the March 31 deadline. A South Korean wire service reported Wednesday that Seoul was “seriously considering” the offer.

The reason for the stampede is clear: China’s market and its huge hoard of cash to invest override any concerns voiced by the U.S. Treasury Department and State Department over Beijing’s half-ownership stake in the bank.

“Simply put, if you partake, you have a stake,” Thomas Koenig, a policy analyst with the European Union Chamber of Commerce, told the German broadcast service Deutsche Welle.

With 32 countries on board and more expected in the coming days, Chinese state media have begun to gloat about the failure of the Obama administration to rally even its closest allies and trading partners to shun the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. They noted that U.S. officials have long lectured China, now the world’s second-largest economy, to take a more active “stakeholder” role in global economic affairs, but then tried to undermine the investment bank almost from the time Chinese President Xi Jinping floated the idea of an Asian development fund during a trip to Indonesia in October 2013.

“Welcome Germany! Welcome France! Welcome Italy!” the official Chinese Xinhua News Agency wrote in a commentary published Wednesday.

“Despite a petulant and cynical Washington,” more and more major countries are joining, the commentary noted. “Holding sour grapes over the AIIB makes America look isolated and hypocritical.”

Chinese officials noted Wednesday that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will be on the agenda for the summit of top Chinese, Japanese and South Korean diplomats Saturday in Seoul. Chinese Deputy Finance Minister Shi Yaobin told reporters in Beijing that the U.S. would still be welcomed as a founding partner.

Saying Asia’s booming infrastructure financing needs — estimated at a staggering $700 billion annually — aren’t being met by institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, China is putting up half of the planned initial $50 billion financing to launch the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. India, another U.S. ally, is the second-biggest investor, and a group of developing countries from Asia and the Middle East quickly signed on.

The Obama administration has been skeptical of the idea from the start, arguing that the proposed bank could prove redundant and could undercut lending standards on such issues as worker protections and the environment. China’s large stake also raised red flags, U.S. officials said, about whether the bank would favor Beijing’s economic and strategic priorities.

Clash over clout

Underlying the public debate was a clear clash between Washington and Beijing over clout in the globe’s leading financial infrastructure, set up largely by the United States in the wake of World War II and still largely dominated in the senior ranks by U.S., European and Japanese officials.

“We are wary about a trend toward constant accommodation of China, which is not the best way to engage a rising power,” an unidentified U.S. official told the Financial Times newspaper after news broke that Britain would join the bank.

Rising powers such as China, Brazil and India also have expressed mounting frustration that a proposed overhaul of the International Monetary Fund to reset voting rights to reflect the new global pecking order has been blocked because the Obama administration and the Republican-dominated Congress have been unable to pass it.

Analysts say Chinese officials have skillfully tried to meet concerns that Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank members will be drawn into a power clash. During a visit to Australia last month, Zhou Qiangwu, a point man for Beijing’s selling efforts, noted that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank would be run by a multinational secretariat and use the same management structure as the Asian Development Bank and World Bank.

The proposed bank would “follow the international practice and give highest attention to environmental impact and resettlement” issues, he said, with strong safeguards against corruption.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew tried to moderate the U.S. line against the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in testimony on Capitol Hill this week, insisting that the administration’s primary goal was to ensure that the bank did not undermine lending standards.

“I hope before the final commitments are made anyone who lends their name to this organization will make sure that the governance is appropriate,” Mr. Lew said.

But the White House and the State Department said this week that it was the “sovereign decision” of each country on whether to participate in the bank.

Mr. Lew did acknowledge that the longtime U.S. and Western primacy in the global financial sphere was being challenged by China and other rising powers, which may not share Washington’s priorities.

“New players are challenging U.S. leadership in the multilateral system,” Mr. Lew said, pleading for passage of the IMF reform package. “Our international credibility and influence are being threatened.”

But private analysts say that credibility and influence have taken major hits from the rush to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

C. Fred Bergsten, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote this week that the Obama administration made a huge mistake by trying to undermine the bank, not only failing to persuade allies to stay out but also strengthening the voices in Beijing who argue that the U.S. is trying to keep China down.

“The U.S. hostility reinforces the Chinese view that U.S. strategy is to contain and suppress it,” he wrote, “so increasing rather than decreasing the prospect of uncooperative Chinese behavior.”

Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman said this week that the saga “is turning into a diplomatic debacle for the U.S.”

“By setting up and then losing a power struggle with China,” he said, “Washington has sent an unintended signal about the drift of power and influence in the 21st century.”
I think there are a few things of note here in this affair.

1. By opposing China in something less offensive as a bank to lend money for development, Obama has just strengthened voices in China who believe that the US is seeking to contain them. I can understand if China made military moves, but for this. Nevertheless this doesn't look good, because it will be better if the US and China cooperated. But as they say it takes two to tango.

2. I think the Washington post put it aptly. By losing this diplomatic struggle with China it unintentionally feeds into the "US decline" and "China rising" memes.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Maggie Thatcher's quote about "either being at the table or on the table" comes to mind.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Once again the US becomes the definition of failure. :lol: "We don't like your bank cause it's competing with our bank". Sore losers.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

While Switzerland has now applied to join as well.
http://news.yahoo.com/switzerland-part- ... ector.html
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Stas Bush wrote:Once again the US becomes the definition of failure. :lol: "We don't like your bank cause it's competing with our bank". Sore losers.
This is what puzzles me about this story. Why even pick this fight?
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

Gandalf wrote:
Stas Bush wrote:Once again the US becomes the definition of failure. :lol: "We don't like your bank cause it's competing with our bank". Sore losers.
This is what puzzles me about this story. Why even pick this fight?
They're buttsore after Putin humiliated them in 2008 and 2014 and needed a quick victory. :D :D :D

Ok jokes aside, I have heard it written by journalists that the US is afraid of China using the bank to boost China's soft power. In which case they don't need to worry, since economic loans and aid is actually an example of hard power. * However if we change it to simply "China's power in general" irregardless of whether its hard or soft, it makes sense to want to oppose it.

It doesn't make sense from the POV of using resources to oppose it, because the cost / benefit ratio seems very low. China already has lots of applicants even before the big European powers joined. Its not like China can't afford to fork out the $50 billion dollars by itself. In other words, no way in hell is the AIIB not going to be set up. The cost of trying to stop China is twofold as mentioned - US loses a bit of prestige, Chinese Hawks interpret this as US is out to suppress China. The former seems minor, especially in light of what Putin has managed to pull off against them, so China setting up a bank is nothing. The latter however could be more costly if China decides it needs to behave less cooperatively and more competitively.

* It could be an example of soft power if you interpret it as "countries may admire this Chinese institution" and like China by virtue of the fact they run this institution. Although I would be careful with this interpretation. I mean how many people admire the US based on the fact that they are the dominant power in the World Bank or the IMF. In fact how many developing nations actually admire the IMF or the World Bank, as oppose to seeing it as a necessary evil?
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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mr friendly guy wrote:Ok jokes aside, I have heard it written by journalists that the US is afraid of China using the bank to boost China's soft power. In which case they don't need to worry, since economic loans and aid is actually an example of hard power. *
It is both.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Australia has now applied as well.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Who hasn't, yet?
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Is Russia joining?
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Stas Bush wrote:Who hasn't, yet?
The US for one. :D

Japan most probably won't. I have heard rumours that SK would like the HQ to be located in their country, so maybe they will join as well.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by K. A. Pital »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:Is Russia joining?
Considering it still, but no firm decision. Though I believe it will have no choice but to join, given its damaged relations with the Western powers who control all the IMF and WB capital.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Well Turkey and South Korea has applied. Despite earlier reports some Australian politicians ie Julie Bishop who opposed it the first time, is still claiming Australia needs to iron out a few details before applying. I would laugh at our government's paranoia if the US biggest allies joined but we haven't. Oh wait, we are America's deputy in this region. :D
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Ralin »

So how exactly does starting this bank and giving a whole bunch of wealthy American allies a seat at the table particularly help China?
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Ralin wrote:So how exactly does starting this bank and giving a whole bunch of wealthy American allies a seat at the table particularly help China?
You're taking the piss right?
This is another step towards China becoming the global economic superpower.
Basically, the nations of the world are beginning to crowd under China's economic umbrella, rather than exclusively the USA's.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Ralin wrote:So how exactly does starting this bank and giving a whole bunch of wealthy American allies a seat at the table particularly help China?
Several reasons.

1. Gives more legitimacy to an international organisation if more countries join especially ones with large economies - plus China has 50% voting rights so even if a whole bunch of American allies get a seat at the table, they will just dilute the voices which isn't China. Its not like every one of these allies are going to agree 100% of the time are they. Nor is it likely they joined just so they could act as saboteurs, so the fact they are American allies most likely won't come into it.

If you seek to maximise geopolitical advantage, having others help you with tasks help. Ideally these others become your allies, not just allies of convenience. But I am sure China would be happy if they can pull some Europeans slightly away from America's orbit. Like how even the UK with its "special relationship" broke ranks with the US on this one.

2. If the bank is run as its supposed to, it will be profitable for those who provide the funds (because the countries it lends to will pay back). China is the one forking out most of the cash. Of course nothing is without risk, and by having other members provide cash as well, China reduces the risk.

3. It increases Chinese influence to those who the bank lends to. Mainly in the form of hard power but a bit of soft power as well - see discussion earlier in this thread. Obviously letting the others join in doesn't contribute to that aim, but you did also ask how starting the bank helps China.

4. China gets to be a member of an international finance institution where it holds more voting power. Remember it was their frustration with how the US stalled giving rising nations such as themselves more voting power which prompted them to create a bank of their own. I am sure it could start another bank where it held 100% voting rights and it was the only member, but it kind of defeats the purpose of being affiliated with an international organisation which rivals the ADB / IMF / World Bank.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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Well like I said, inviting rich countries who are generally far friendlier towards the US than China means that 1) it's much less 'under China's economic umbrella' because France or Germany aren't going to sink their money into it without getting a large say in how the bank is run and what it does and 2) while France and Germany might not agree with the US they're still longstanding allies who aren't going to support things that seriously harm US interests.

Plus this is China we're talking about. They have massive corruption issues at pretty much every level of government. Setting up the Chinese IMF or whatever won't do China any good if it's mismanaged and highlights China's problems.

mfg posted while I was writing that and I'm about to go to bed.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

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To update, Russia has also joined. Australia is pretty much in the bag despite the mixed signals we have been sending (which the more I think about it is a way for Julie Bishop to save face by saying the Chinese have agreed to address our "concerns" re : Bishop's concerns).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infr ... tment_Bank

Qatar, Russia, Denmark has also joined.

North Korea was rejected. :D

*****************************************************************************
Another reason why its beneficial to China is to deal with possible overcapacity. Its not secret that China is the largest consumer of steel, and some of these mills are inefficient, pollutes without much gain. Beijing has stepped up the effort to close them. However China still has lots of capacity. No one else has built that much infrastructure. Why not put some of this excess capacity to good use and build up infrastructure elsewhere in Asia. Given their track record they will be pretty competitive in a fair tender. Asia needs the infrastructure and it will boost Chinese trade.

The following article explains a bit

http://www.theage.com.au/comment/aiib-c ... maoq7.html

Its long and makes fun of our prime minister. As much as I like that I will focus on its explanation for why China wants such a bank
We can see why the AIIB is so significant by looking both at why China has set it up, and why the United States has opposed it. China's motives are partly economic, and the logic for this is clear. To reach its economic potential Asia needs to invest about $1 trillion each year over the next decade on infrastructure of all kinds.

Existing outfits like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have neither the money nor the expertise to begin to meet this challenge. China alone has the money needed to get things moving and the expertise, built up through its extraordinary achievements in developing its own infrastructure over the past decade. No country in history has ever built so much, so quickly.

that is only half the story. China understands that leading this kind of effort will deliver huge strategic benefits as well, not just consolidating China's position as Asia's economic hub but also building its credentials as the region's political leader too. No one watching its foreign policy over the past decade could doubt how important that goal has become to Beijing.

This is exactly what worries Washington. People there know better than anyone how much the US's leading role in the World Bank and IMF has served US political and strategic interests since World War II. They know that the AIIB can help China contest US primacy in Asia and take a bigger share of regional leadership for itself, and that is precisely what Washington wants to avoid. That is what President Obama's "Pivot to Asia" is all about.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

http://en.people.cn/business/n/2015/033 ... 71761.html

BEIJING, March 31-- The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiated by China is widely recognized as an important instrument for win-win cooperation in Asia, but unfortunately some Western media have ignored basic facts to portray the bank as a sinister invention.

The burgeoning institution attracted intensive media attention in mid-March after Britain announced its intention to join as a founding member, despite questioning by Washington whether the China-led bank will have sufficient standards of governance and environmental and social safeguards.

As of March 31, the deadline for countries to apply for founding-member status, over 40 countries have declared their interest, with a noteworthy presence of many U.S. allies from both Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
However, seeing the upbeat mood surrounding the AIIB, some Western media have unleashed a fresh round of China-demonizing reports, alleging that the AIIB is a vehicle for China to assert dominance in Asia and even beyond.

As in similar cases, such reports hyped the so-called "China threat" without giving adequate supporting details and were very much based on theories of those who always seek to cast China in negative light.

Browsing through China-related reports by these media outlets offers a glimpse of the routine absurd prejudice against China: On the one hand, they bombard China for purported reluctance to shoulder global responsibilities and on the other, they play up imminent "China threat" if China does make a solid move to address certain global challenges.

By initiating the AIIB, China intends to break Asia's infrastructure bottleneck by tapping into the country's huge amount of foreign reserves.

By inviting more countries to join the initiative, China aims to pool resources for the sake of Asia's development and meanwhile offer these partners a better chance to grow with Asia in the long run.

As a matter of fact, the China-proposed development bank is a perfect example to showcase China's desire to play a bigger role in shouldering global responsibilities.

Those accusing China of shirking its global responsibilities should know that it is only fair for China to shoulder its due share that is within the country's capability and is compatible with its status in various aspects.
Meanwhile, every time they predict that an endeavor by China will bring tangible changes to the existing order, they should also remember to ponder whether the old system is still sufficient.
The Chinese are 100% right. You cannot for years criticise China for not shouldering its global responsibility in regards to Climate change, helping out American misadventure in Iraq etc and talk about how China needs to be a "stakeholder" in the world system yet whine when China tries to shoulder this responsibility. At least some in the media recognised what a clusterfuck Obama's attempt did. Maybe he'll have better luck reining in Tsar Putin. :D
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

Well the final line up of applicants include a few surprises with quite a few last minute applications.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infr ... tment_Bank

Namely

Norway (I guess under the new conservative government we can forget that Nobel Prize spat)

Israel (I know demanding American help while giving them the finger is the norm, but I wouldn't have thought they would have that much interest in the AIIB)

Taiwan (they'll apply under the one china principle, and Taiwan even applying just says it all)

Sweden, Iceland, Finland in the last 2 days, along with the aforementioned Norway and Denmark makes all the Nordic countries.

Japan has declined as I expected, although they believe they can get in later if "standards of governance" are met. The US of course hasn't because that would be a ginormous humiliation.
********************************************************************************
On another note, watching the butthurt of some Australian conservatives is funny. Simultaneously they attack China and Obama for making Australia join the bank. No you didn't misread it. You see its all Obama's fault. Obama mentions climate change and Australia apparently takes it personally even though you would have to use more mental gymnastics than Biblical apologetics to interpret what he said as an insult to Australia. So we jumped onto China's ship (ok he didn't exactly phrase it like that, but that's the underlying message). If this is the quality of our leaders that we make decisions based on who "might" have insulted us, God help us all.

Oh, and the whining from comments is just music to my ears.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

mr friendly guy wrote:On another note, watching the butthurt of some Australian conservatives is funny. Simultaneously they attack China and Obama for making Australia join the bank. No you didn't misread it. You see its all Obama's fault. Obama mentions climate change and Australia apparently takes it personally even though you would have to use more mental gymnastics than Biblical apologetics to interpret what he said as an insult to Australia. So we jumped onto China's ship (ok he didn't exactly phrase it like that, but that's the underlying message). If this is the quality of our leaders that we make decisions based on who "might" have insulted us, God help us all.

Oh, and the whining from comments is just music to my ears.
Must have grown up around the time when Australia was screeching about the "Yellow Plague".
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Sidewinder »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:
mr friendly guy wrote:On another note, watching the butthurt of some Australian conservatives is funny. Simultaneously they attack China and Obama for making Australia join the bank. No you didn't misread it. You see its all Obama's fault. Obama mentions climate change and Australia apparently takes it personally even though you would have to use more mental gymnastics than Biblical apologetics to interpret what he said as an insult to Australia. So we jumped onto China's ship (ok he didn't exactly phrase it like that, but that's the underlying message). If this is the quality of our leaders that we make decisions based on who "might" have insulted us, God help us all.

Oh, and the whining from comments is just music to my ears.
Must have grown up around the time when Australia was screeching about the "Yellow Plague".
Did anyone read the following article from American Thinker [insert sarcastic comment regarding oxymorons here]?
David Archibald, March 12 wrote:Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

How do we know the war is coming in the first place? Because the advertising for it is out. Amongst plenty of other evidence, one Chinese front organisation conducted a poll on Australian attitudes to the ANZUS treaty and a Chinese attack on Japan. Why would they conduct such a poll unless they are going to attack Japan? Not that they were interested in the results as such. They just wanted to be able to publicize the poll in order to try to keep Australia on the sidelines of their war.

The war will have two functions for China. Firstly, it will provide legitimacy for the regime as economic growth stalls. Secondly, the Chinese will have pride in humiliating their neighbouring countries, and the United States, by defeating them in battle and creating no-go zones in the oceans which other countries won’t be able to enter without Chinese permission. The war will have nothing to do with oil and gas resources under the seabed and securing sea-lanes. The Chinese have never offered those excuses for their behavior themselves. The excuses are the creation of Western pundits for something that otherwise is stupid, destructive, and primitive.

Some have seen this war coming well in advance. In 2005, Robert Kaplan wrote an article entitled How We Would Fight China. In it he notes that China will approach the war “asymmetrically, as terrorists do. In Iraq the insurgents have shown us the low end of asymmetry, with car bombs. But the Chinese are poised to show us the high end of the art.”

To win the war, China has to seize territory and then hold it against the US/Japanese counterattack. There will be two main theatres of operation -- the Senkaku and Yaeyama island chains in the East China Sea and the Paracel and Spratly Islands south of Hainan Island in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea, China claims the uninhabited Senkaku Islands and has made noises about being the rightful owners of the Ryuku and Yaeyama Island Chains. This part of the world is complicated for China in that there are US bases on Okinawa in the Ryukus.

They could leave the US bases out of their attack in the expectation that President Obama will renege on his commitment to come to Japan’s aid if China attempts to seize the Senkaku Islands. More likely they will attack US bases in the region at least as far out as Guam on the basis that the United States will be entering the war anyway and they are better off getting a surprise attack in first. Also, they can’t be number one on the planet until they have defeated the United States. So their pride will be a big part of it.

If China is going to seize the Senkaku Islands, it would take only a little bit more effort, morally and militarily, to seize the Yaeyama Islands at the same time. Part of the preparations for this operation includes building the Shuimen airbase on a ridge on the mainland at 26° 56’ N, 120° 05’ E. More recently an expeditionary base for helicopters is under construction in the Nanji Islands at 27° 27’ N, 121° 04’ E. China has been conditioning the Japanese by having their fishing vessels run incursions into Japanese territory with each incursion lasting two hours. In late 2014, the fishing transgressions extended to the Osagawa Islands further east.

In the East China Sea, China is likely to start the war off with helicopters landing troops on the Senkaku and Yaeyama Islands quickly followed by a swarm of coast guard and commercial vessels to dilute the targeting of the naval vessels among them. They may also use fishing vessels to land Special Forces further east in the Osagawa Islands. These troops would be used sacrificially to dilute the response to the main thrust. That would be why China is conditioning Japan to get used to fishing vessels making incursions in the Osagawas. China would also be attacking US and Japanese bases with intermediate range ballistic missiles -- everything that would throw the Japanese off balance and make the problem of the Chinese attack seem overwhelming.

The US Marines are confident that they could recapture the Senkaku Islands once control of the sea and air was assured. Japanese and US forces would have no desire to set foot on Chinese territory. After the initial Chinese onslaught, the campaign would settle down to a blockade of shipping to China conducted beyond the reach of Chinese aircraft. China wouldn’t run out of oil because they are building a large stockpile and they could easily cut consumption down to the level of domestic production of 4 million barrels per day. But 26% of the economy is export-related and so economic activity would collapse. The effect of the blockade in the rest of the world would be a major boost to economic activity as companies tried to make good the loss of Chinese supply.

In the South China Sea, China would declare an Air Defence Identification Zone and enforce it using the airbase they are currently building on Fiery Cross Reef. They may attempt to seize other countries’ bases in the Spratleys or they might just sink their ships and starve them out. The problem for China is that the South China Sea is a natural kill box for Chinese shipping. On the western side, Vietnam has upgraded its radars (with assistance from the French company Thales) and has an inventory of about 500 anti-ship missiles. Singapore’s air force is likely to assist Vietnam and stage through Cam Ranh Bay with their 36 F-15s.

On the eastern side, the US has plenty of basing opportunities in the Philippines. Once the airfield on Fiery Cross Reef was degraded, Chinese shipping would have to rely upon air cover coming from bases 1,000 km to the northwest. Eventually the Chinese air defences will be worn down and the Chinese ships will be defenseless. Then will come bombardment of the bases they have built and it will be all over. The US Marines now have a base at Oyster Bay on the western side of Palawan Island in the Philippines in preparation for this battle. If the Chinese are particularly intractable, then the US might go on to capture Woody Island in the Paracel Group. That will be a lot tougher in that it is only 300 km from Hainan Island and the depth of Chinese basing behind it on the mainland.

What if you don’t like the idea of the US being involved in a war with China? Well stop buying anything made in China. The US takes 17% of China’s exports and if that dried up, the Chinese economy would shrink by 4.5%. The social dislocation that would cause might be enough to topple the warhawk who is driving the Chinese aggression, President Xi Jinping. Until President Xi is gone, prepare for war.

David Archibald, a visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery, 2014)
Note the writer is using British English, NOT American English, as his spelling indicates- "defence" (UK) vs. "defense" (US), "neighbouring" (UK) vs. "neighboring" (US). "Take up the White Man's Burden (so the British and the Australians won't have to), America!"
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Gandalf »

Maybe Abbott can ask for an investment for us to build a national broadband network? :P
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:Must have grown up around the time when Australia was screeching about the "Yellow Plague".
I was born in the mid eighties. Even though phrases like "yellow plague" were out of vogue, I still heard a lot of it. Australia is still quite scared of Asia for some reason.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Gandalf wrote:Maybe Abbott can ask for an investment for us to build a national broadband network? :P
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:Must have grown up around the time when Australia was screeching about the "Yellow Plague".
I was born in the mid eighties. Even though phrases like "yellow plague" were out of vogue, I still heard a lot of it. Australia is still quite scared of Asia for some reason.
It's probably an Anglo-Saxon thing. Australia still behaves like it's a European country that is in Europe and not in Asia. Your country had an active policy of encouraging immigration from S. Africa and UK in a bid to "suppress the immigration of yellow people" way back in the 60s, 70s etc.
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Re: US "diplomatic disaster" on Chinese bank (AIIB)

Post by mr friendly guy »

My gut feeling is that the average Australian is most probably somewhat more tolerant than cough cough the average European cough cough for individuals of a different race. And we do have a bunch of racist pricks, but I don't think we have large number of fans throwing bananas or make monkey sounds to sport stars of African descent. In fact in say Europe, police don't do much when this racist shit happens. In Australia this is what happens when a racist bitch uses a racial epithet against an Indigenous player. That's right, security escorted her out of the ground, the president of the side whose fan was racist apologised to the player, and then the stupid bitch apologised on national television. What does one need to do in Europe soccer matches to stop racism. An Eric Cantona fly kick? :D

I also however think that the average Australian might be opposite in the geopolitical realm when we talk about entire countries. I mean the Japan scare in the 80s and the China scare now. The holy mantras about how China or Asia would never surpass anyone, almost as if you shout it enough times it won't come true (hint Asia's GDP in nominal terms is already larger than the US or the EU). Meanwhile Europe is more worried about Russia than Asian countries. :D

This is just anecdotal evidence, so I will easily change my mind if someone has a study of some sort saying the opposite. But it is my take on the Australian psyche, there is racism but there is also a strong current of this will not be tolerated. So the racists whine on youtube. :D
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
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