I know, I know, I can anticipate the shock and surprise that French-Canadians are much more strongly anti-war than the rest of CanadaThe Globe and Mail wrote:Support for Chrétien's war policy sags
By SHAWN McCARTHY
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Ottawa — Support for Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's handling of the Iraq war plunged in the past week, with opinion split virtually evenly outside Quebec, where antiwar sentiment is strongest, a new Globe and Mail/CTV poll suggests.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos-Reid, found Canadians deeply divided along regional and gender lines over the government's decision not to participate in the war in Iraq. Nearly half of the respondents said Canada should now join the military effort.
The poll found Mr. Chrétien had the support of 56 per cent of Canadians for his handling of the Iraqi crisis — a drop of 10 points in a week. Outside of Quebec, his majority was razor-thin, according to the survey conducted this week.
"Canadians are conflicted on this," Ipsos-Reid vice-president John Wright said. "They are proud that Canada has taken an independent stand but anxious and concerned about the impact of that action."
About 73 per cent of Quebeckers approved of Mr. Chrétien's handling of the Iraq war. Outside the province, he received 50 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval.
Over all, women were far more likely to support Mr. Chrétien's decision to stay out of the war — 66 per cent of women supported the move, versus 52 per cent of men.
U.S. Ambassador Paul Cellucci fuelled Canadian concerns over Mr. Chrétien's stand this week when he said Americans are "disappointed and upset" over Canada's decision and warned vaguely of repercussions.
Mr. Cellucci was more conciliatory yesterday as he spoke in Fort St. John, B.C., where he emphasized the importance of Canada-U.S. ties. He also lauded Canada's naval presence in the Persian Gulf, saying the Canadian military is still playing a huge role helping countries that are part of the U.S.-led coalition against Iraq.
The poll found Canadians are sensitive to his argument that Canada has turned its back on its closest friend at a time of need.
Approximately 47 per cent of respondents agreed Canada "turned our back" on the Americans, while 51 per cent disagreed. In Quebec, only 36 per cent agreed that the decision amounted to a failure to support the U.S. at its time of need, while 51 per cent of those in other provinces agreed.
While hundreds of thousands of Canadians have attended antiwar rallies across the country, pro-U.S. rallies are also starting to spring up.
Pro-coalition rallies were planned for today in Winnipeg, Ottawa and Red Deer, Alta., and in Calgary and Vancouver tomorrow. American flags are flying off the shelves in many western cities.
Still, two-thirds of poll respondents said Mr. Chrétien's stand has shown Canada is an independent player on the world stage.
The Ipsos-Reid poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between March 25 and March 27 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mr. Chrétien has cancelled an April 9 visit to Washington, where he was due to receive an award for his support for national parks. A spokesman in his office said yesterday the Prime Minister did not feel comfortable accepting an award as Americans are fighting in Iraq.
U.S. President George W. Bush's planned state visit to Ottawa may also be cancelled, though it still remains on the schedule.
Mr. Chrétien has defended his decision to keep Canada out of the war, saying he believed United Nations weapons inspectors were working to disarm Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
However, in recent days, he and his senior ministers have warned their caucus to restrain from criticizing the U.S. war effort and to rein in negative statements about Mr. Bush.
In the Ipsos-Reid poll, 59 per cent of respondents said they were glad Canada stayed out of the war, including 83 per cent of Quebeckers. Outside of Quebec, only 52 per cent of respondents said they were glad Canada opted out of war.
But approaching the war's two-week mark — with U.S. and British forces meeting unexpectedly stiff resistance — 45 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that "it is now time for us to come aboard and offer our military support."
Again, the difference between Quebec and the rest of the country is stark. Only 34 per cent of Quebeckers agreed it is now time to join the coalition, while Canadians outside that province were evenly divided.
PS. Roughly 4000 people marched in a pro-war rally in Ottawa today. At the same time, 400 marched in a peace demonstration at the US embassy. I'm not sure what it means that Canadian support for the war is on the increase (I can't imagine Don Cherry's pontificating on Hockey Night in Canada could have had that much effect
), but there you have it. Take it for whatever you think it's worth.
