The 2016 US Election (Part II)

[Dalton]

Let's keep the discussion going and the bullshit to a minimum.

The story thus far:

The Republicans have three candidates still in the field: Trump, Cruz, Kasich. There is a very real possibility of a brokered convention if Trump can't secure enough delegates for the nomination.

The Democrats have two candidates in the field: Clinton, Sanders. Sanders is trailing quite a bit but still in the race.

The next Primaries are on March 22nd. Who's going to come out on top? Discuss.

[Raw Shark]

I'd find the Drumpf thing a little bit of a cheap shot, if he wasn't so adamantly against immigration. As it is, I think it's fair ball. Let him reap what he sews.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, I'll make my tentative prediction for the next primary on the Democratic side:

Arizona-Clinton.
Idaho-Sanders.
Utah-Sanders.

Although the only prediction I'm really feeling fairly confident about is Utah-Sanders.

In other news, Bernie won the Democrats Abroad Primary by 69 to 31. Not a lot of delegates, but its of particular interest to me as a participant in the Democrats Abroad Primary.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/21/politics/ ... index.html

(CNN)Bernie Sanders has won the Democrats Abroad presidential primary, defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 69% to 31%, the organization announced Monday.

Sanders received 23,779 votes from American Democrats living in more than 170 countries. Clinton received 10,689 votes. He picked up an additional nine delegates, compared to four for Clinton.

The contest marks the Vermont senator's 10th win so far this campaign season and his first victory since winning the Michigan primary on March 8. Clinton, who swept the primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio last week, has won 19 contests overall.

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The nearly 35,000 votes cast in the global primary exceeds the 23,000 votes cast in the 2008 primary, when Barack Obama defeated Clinton 66% to 33%.

Voting was held from March 1 through March 8.

Democrats Abroad is the international arm of the Democratic National Committee and gives Democrats living overseas the opportunity to participate in the presidential nomination process.

The group was officially created during the 1964 presidential election by Americans living in London and Paris. In 1976, the organization held its first global primary and sent its first voting delegation to the Democratic National Convention.

Edit: Fixed quotes, corrected error.

[Lord MJ]

Narrative going around now is that the very fact that Bernie is even still in the race is evidence that he's racist. Because he lost the entire south overwhelmingly and most of them are black, his pushing to still win anyway is proof he doesn't care about the wishes of black people.

That could be a legitimate concern for Bernie is he somehow overcomes the Clinton delegate lead. Any scenario in which the primaries end with either candidate in close proximity to another in delegates will turn into a contested convention. Racial divides could be huge in such a scenario.

Also leads to the question. Will Black voters support Bernie in a general election if he were to become the nominee?

[Flagg]

I'd find the Drumpf thing a little bit of a cheap shot, if he wasn't so adamantly against immigration. As it is, I think it's fair ball. Let him reap what he sews.

As someone who's great great grandfather (on my moms dads side) had his name forcibly changed from Kaupf to Cobb, I find it a bit distasteful and would be a hypocrite if I didn't say so in this case just because it's making fun of Fake Billionaire Donald "Il Douche" Trump. But since it had been gone over before (I just wanted to add my 2 cents as its a personal issue with me) I don't think it needs to be re-argued.

My guess is "Il Douche" will have it locked before the convention.
Bernie will take it all the way to the convention even if he's behind by 25% or more, going back on more of what he's said he wouldn't do to try and get elected. But ultimately Clinton will win.

[Flagg]

Narrative going around now is that the very fact that Bernie is even still in the race is evidence that he's racist. Because he lost the entire south overwhelmingly and most of them are black, his pushing to still win anyway is proof he doesn't care about the wishes of black people.

That could be a legitimate concern for Bernie is he somehow overcomes the Clinton delegate lead. Any scenario in which the primaries end with either candidate in close proximity to another in delegates will turn into a contested convention. Racial divides could be huge in such a scenario.

Also leads to the question. Will Black voters support Bernie in a general election if he were to become the nominee?

Source?

[Lord MJ]

Narrative being sentiment of what people are saying, not official news narrative.

[The Romulan Republic]

Narrative going around now is that the very fact that Bernie is even still in the race is evidence that he's racist. Because he lost the entire south overwhelmingly and most of them are black, his pushing to still win anyway is proof he doesn't care about the wishes of black people.

That could be a legitimate concern for Bernie is he somehow overcomes the Clinton delegate lead. Any scenario in which the primaries end with either candidate in close proximity to another in delegates will turn into a contested convention. Racial divides could be huge in such a scenario.

Also leads to the question. Will Black voters support Bernie in a general election if he were to become the nominee?

Well, I can't imagine most black people voting for the Republicans.

Worst case scenario, a lot of people don't vote or go write-in/third party/independent. But there is a real risk of that if Sanders loses too.

I'd probably be panicking about the Democrats' chances in the general election right now if not for the fact that the internal clusterfuck is even worse on the Republican side.

But I do question the assumption that a close primary will necessarily mean a contested convention. I would hope that either candidate would have the sanity to concede if they were behind at the convention, even if the margins were close.

In any case, if Bernie goes to the convention behind in pledged delegates, he kind of has to concede. No way he's winning the super delegates if he can't win the pledged delegates.

[Flagg]

Narrative being sentiment of what people are saying, not official news narrative.

Where are they saying it?

[Lord MJ]

My guess is "Il Douche" will have it locked before the convention.
Bernie will take it all the way to the convention even if he's behind by 25% or more, going back on more of what he's said he wouldn't do to try and get elected. But ultimately Clinton will win.

Bernie would probably only attempt to win via superdelegates or flipping delegates if he is close. 25% is not going to do it.

As for whether Bernie will stay in the race even after it's clear he's mathematically eliminated, it depends. He can't win the election but he could still drive home the reform message, and force the Democrats to make agree to certain platforms and make changes. Otherwise the Dems can kiss their general election prospects goodbye. On the other hand he might tow the party line and throw his support to Hillary. It really is unknown at this point.

[Lord MJ]

Narrative being sentiment of what people are saying, not official news narrative.

Where are they saying it?

Friends, colleagues, Internet comments, etc. Not a scientific poll, but could indicate a general mood of people if it is shared across a wide spectrum of the black electorate.

Would be nice to know whether the black opinion is:

1. We think Clinton is better than Bernie (but would still support Bernie if he wins)
2. We really do not like Bernie Sanders.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm sure that their are a lot of different opinions among black voters, but the sense I get is less "we hate Bernie" and more "we prefer Clinton". Though hostility might build as a bitter primary gets dragged out.

My guess is "Il Douche" will have it locked before the convention.
Bernie will take it all the way to the convention even if he's behind by 25% or more, going back on more of what he's said he wouldn't do to try and get elected. But ultimately Clinton will win.

Bernie would probably only attempt to win via superdelegates or flipping delegates if he is close. 25% is not going to do it.

As for whether Bernie will stay in the race even after it's clear he's mathematically eliminated, it depends. He can't win the election but he could still drive home the reform message, and force the Democrats to make agree to certain platforms and make changes. Otherwise the Dems can kiss their general election prospects goodbye. On the other hand he might tow the party line and throw his support to Hillary. It really is unknown at this point.

If Sanders loses the pledged delegate count and popular vote and still tried to win through convention maneuvering, I'd lose pretty much all respect for him, because at that point he'd not only be breaking his word and being hypocritical, but risking the general election.

I hope he'll have the sense not to do that.

[Flagg]

I'd vote for Sanders but it would be hard to not just write-in Geoffrey Baratheon, instead given that I don't like how he's run his campaign at all

[The Romulan Republic]

Personally, if I was going to write in someone, I'd probably either write in Lando Calrisien (as per a recent discussion in the Star Wars forum) or Buffy the Vampire Slayer (just for the hell of it, and since as an American citizen who's canonically over 35 now, Buffy is actually about as eligible for the Presidency as a fictional character can be).

But no way I'm going to do a write in in practice. I'm in a swing state, so I simply can't justify wasting my vote to myself. I expect I'll vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, probably gritting my teeth and cringing as I do it.

[Flagg]

Narrative being sentiment of what people are saying, not official news narrative.

Where are they saying it?

Friends, colleagues, Internet comments, etc. Not a scientific poll, but could indicate a general mood of people if it is shared across a wide spectrum of the black electorate.

Would be nice to know whether the black opinion is:

1. We think Clinton is better than Bernie (but would still support Bernie if he wins)
2. We really do not like Bernie Sanders.

So it's basically water cooler shit? Ok, I can safely sleep knowing that the vaaaaast majority of minorities don't hold that view.

[Lord MJ]

I'm sure that their are a lot of different opinions among black voters, but the sense I get is less "we hate Bernie" and more "we prefer Clinton". Though hostility might build as a bitter primary gets dragged out.

My guess is "Il Douche" will have it locked before the convention.
Bernie will take it all the way to the convention even if he's behind by 25% or more, going back on more of what he's said he wouldn't do to try and get elected. But ultimately Clinton will win.

Bernie would probably only attempt to win via superdelegates or flipping delegates if he is close. 25% is not going to do it.

As for whether Bernie will stay in the race even after it's clear he's mathematically eliminated, it depends. He can't win the election but he could still drive home the reform message, and force the Democrats to make agree to certain platforms and make changes. Otherwise the Dems can kiss their general election prospects goodbye. On the other hand he might tow the party line and throw his support to Hillary. It really is unknown at this point.

If Sanders loses the pledged delegate count and popular vote and still tried to win through convention maneuvering, I'd lose pretty much all respect for him, because at that point he'd not only be breaking his word and being hypocritical, but risking the general election.

I hope he'll have the sense not to do that.

Convention maneuvering would be inevitable if say Bernie was within a close threshold. Not sure what would constitute "close" 25 delegates, 50, 100?

Regardless of what Bernie does, even if he gives up on his bid for the nomination, the Dems would have a serious problem on their hands if their "establishment" candidate has been voted against by so many people AND a sizable portion of the party base is dissatisfied about how the party is managed and the direction of the party. Democrats would have some very hard choices to make as to what kind of party they want to be. They would rather sweep all the "anti-establishment" talk under the rug and unite behind Clinton and beat Donald Trump. Neither Bernie nor his supporters are going to let the establishment off the hook that easily.

[Lord MJ]

Where are they saying it?

Friends, colleagues, Internet comments, etc. Not a scientific poll, but could indicate a general mood of people if it is shared across a wide spectrum of the black electorate.

Would be nice to know whether the black opinion is:

1. We think Clinton is better than Bernie (but would still support Bernie if he wins)
2. We really do not like Bernie Sanders.

So it's basically water cooler shit? Ok, I can safely sleep knowing that the vaaaaast majority of minorities don't hold that view.

I wouldn't write if off so easily.

There is also the narrative that anyone that isn't going to support Hillary is exercising "white privilege." The logic being that Bernie's mostly white base can afford to live under a Trump presidency, while minorities can not. Thus whites have a choice to not support Hillary, while minorities do not have that choice.

Another less prevalent line of thought is that since Bernie's "socialism" is such a risk in a general election, white voters are "privileged" in that they can afford to take risks on putting Bernie into the nomination, if he loses white voters can live with a Trump presidency. While I've heard this less often, this reasoning could explain why Clinton is getting her support. The prospect of someone like Donald Trump becoming president is too big of risk to be taking any chances.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm sure that their are a lot of different opinions among black voters, but the sense I get is less "we hate Bernie" and more "we prefer Clinton". Though hostility might build as a bitter primary gets dragged out.

Bernie would probably only attempt to win via superdelegates or flipping delegates if he is close. 25% is not going to do it.

As for whether Bernie will stay in the race even after it's clear he's mathematically eliminated, it depends. He can't win the election but he could still drive home the reform message, and force the Democrats to make agree to certain platforms and make changes. Otherwise the Dems can kiss their general election prospects goodbye. On the other hand he might tow the party line and throw his support to Hillary. It really is unknown at this point.

If Sanders loses the pledged delegate count and popular vote and still tried to win through convention maneuvering, I'd lose pretty much all respect for him, because at that point he'd not only be breaking his word and being hypocritical, but risking the general election.

I hope he'll have the sense not to do that.

Convention maneuvering would be inevitable if say Bernie was within a close threshold. Not sure what would constitute "close" 25 delegates, 50, 100?

Regardless of what Bernie does, even if he gives up on his bid for the nomination, the Dems would have a serious problem on their hands if their "establishment" candidate has been voted against by so many people AND a sizable portion of the party base is dissatisfied about how the party is managed and the direction of the party. Democrats would have some very hard choices to make as to what kind of party they want to be. They would rather sweep all the "anti-establishment" talk under the rug and unite behind Clinton and beat Donald Trump. Neither Bernie nor his supporters are going to let the establishment off the hook that easily.

Maneuvering would be pointless if Bernie is behind in pledged delegates, because their is no way he's winning Clinton's super delegates over without a majority in pledged delegates.

If, however, he has a narrow lead in pledged delegates somehow, he can legitimately make the case that the super delegates should defer to the choice of the Democratic primary/caucus voters.

[Terralthra]

I think Bernie is a better candidate for President; however, political inertia, centrism, and a better-run campaign have given Secretary Clinton a commanding lead in delegates. It's mathematically possible that Bernie overtakes her in pledged delegates, but certainly unlikely. Most likely she maintains a substantial pledged delegate lead (though the remaining primary states will most likely narrow it), and the superdelegates follow their signals so far - and the will of the plurality of the slim minority who voted in primaries - and she will be the Democratic nominee.

All other things being equal, unless Cruz picks up a substantial majority of primary voters whose candidate has left the GOP field, and/or Kasich drops out and his supporters also go to Cruz, it looks as if Donald Trump will enter the GOP convention with a majority of delegates. Even if not a majority, it'll be close enough that any argument on a second ballot that he isn't the consensus choice will alienate a huge number of GOP voters - many of whom are not tied strongly to the party - with hilarious or violent results. Should be "interesting" to watch.

[Flagg]

I'm sure that their are a lot of different opinions among black voters, but the sense I get is less "we hate Bernie" and more "we prefer Clinton". Though hostility might build as a bitter primary gets dragged out.

Bernie would probably only attempt to win via superdelegates or flipping delegates if he is close. 25% is not going to do it.

As for whether Bernie will stay in the race even after it's clear he's mathematically eliminated, it depends. He can't win the election but he could still drive home the reform message, and force the Democrats to make agree to certain platforms and make changes. Otherwise the Dems can kiss their general election prospects goodbye. On the other hand he might tow the party line and throw his support to Hillary. It really is unknown at this point.

If Sanders loses the pledged delegate count and popular vote and still tried to win through convention maneuvering, I'd lose pretty much all respect for him, because at that point he'd not only be breaking his word and being hypocritical, but risking the general election.

I hope he'll have the sense not to do that.

Convention maneuvering would be inevitable if say Bernie was within a close threshold. Not sure what would constitute "close" 25 delegates, 50, 100?

Regardless of what Bernie does, even if he gives up on his bid for the nomination, the Dems would have a serious problem on their hands if their "establishment" candidate has been voted against by so many people AND a sizable portion of the party base is dissatisfied about how the party is managed and the direction of the party. Democrats would have some very hard choices to make as to what kind of party they want to be. They would rather sweep all the "anti-establishment" talk under the rug and unite behind Clinton and beat Donald Trump. Neither Bernie nor his supporters are going to let the establishment off the hook that easily.

If Hillary Clinton has more delegates and they throw a fit costing the party the election then it's on their own heads. Let's not forget, they started off demanding that if Sanders had the slightest majority, the Superdelegates should go for him, because they assumed he'd have a majority. Now that it's actually Clinton, with a sizable lead, they want the nomination handed to him.

He should follow Clinton's 2008 example and exit with grace. But since he doesn't give 2 shits about a party he joined just in time to run for its nomination (and I put down a standing bet of 5 masturbation sessions to pictures of present-day Angela Merkel or present-day George H. W. Bush (your choice) that he'll be back in the Senate as an Independent when he loses the primary) I don't think he will.

[Flagg]

Friends, colleagues, Internet comments, etc. Not a scientific poll, but could indicate a general mood of people if it is shared across a wide spectrum of the black electorate.

Would be nice to know whether the black opinion is:

1. We think Clinton is better than Bernie (but would still support Bernie if he wins)
2. We really do not like Bernie Sanders.

So it's basically water cooler shit? Ok, I can safely sleep knowing that the vaaaaast majority of minorities don't hold that view.

I wouldn't write if off so easily.

I am. You're just talking about Internet speculation, essentially. If you had any articles with quotes from leaders or staffers of the various communities and campaigns it would be relevant. As it stands, it's nothing more than speculation like the kind at Democratic Underground, where you get banned if you're not "liberal sounding enough" or "don't say the right things the right way". There is no greater hive of scum and villainy this side of "Weather Disturbance at the Fore-End".

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Well, I'll make my tentative prediction for the next primary on the Democratic side:

Arizona-Clinton.
Idaho-Sanders.
Utah-Sanders.

Although the only prediction I'm really feeling fairly confident about is Utah-Sanders.

I wouldn't if I were you. The most recent Utah poll showed Sanders up by eight points. However, the sample size was 194 people, and the margin of error was 7 points. With an apparent 4% undecided, Utah could go either way.

Likewise, the most recent Idaho poll (taken way back in February, before Sanders' whipping last week) showed him with a lead that was within the poll's four point margin of error.

Clinton will almost certainly beat Sanders in Arizona, though. The latest poll suggest that every undecided voter would have to vote for Sanders, just for him and Clinton to draw even (Currently, it has Clinton at 50 points, Sanders at 22, and undecided at 26 with a 5.4 point margin of error. Note that this poll was also taken before Sanders' whipping last week.)

Your prediction shows the absolute best Sanders can do tomorrow. The best place for Sanders is probably going to be Utah; however it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton sweeps all three states, or blows out Sanders in Arizona, picks off either Utah or Idaho, and holds Sanders to a very disappointing margin in whichever state she didn't pick off.

[The Romulan Republic]

I don't put enough faith in polls to give them much weight either way.

These are more favourable regions and demographics for Sanders, and I don't think his recent loss will make a big difference (he has a lot of committed supporters who don't really care if he's behind, and a sense of Clinton inevitability might also cause some Clinton supporters to not bother voting because they think they've got it in the bag). But I feel that any of them could conceivably go either way. Though I tend to put Arizona more in the Clinton column due to the larger Latino vote- while its not as much a weakness of Sanders' as the black vote, its not his strongest demographic either.

[Flagg]

So we have "Il Douche" Trump who appeals to racist, xenophobic, and religious nutjob white voters. Then we have Sanders who appeals to Democratic white voters. So if Bernie gets nominated (I figure Trump for a lock), we'll have 2 old white guys who appeal to white guys. Yeah, this isn't 1992.

[The Vortex Empire]

2 old white guys who appeal to white guys people.

Bernie's support is stronger among women than men.