Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

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mr friendly guy
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Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by mr friendly guy »

A lot of news outlets are reporting this, so I just picked the telegraph, since its got nice pictures summarising the state of military forces in the conflict

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11 ... ce-seized/
Syrian rebels lose all of northeast Aleppo 'in worst defeat since they seized half the city in 2012'

Agence France-Presse
28 NOVEMBER 2016 • 6:36PM
The four-year battle for Aleppo appeared to take a decisive turn in favour of the Syrian regime last night as Bashar al-Assad’s forces drove back rebel fighters and captured more than a third of the territory held by the opposition since 2012.

Analysts said rebel forces were facing the “beginning of end” after they were pushed out of all the northern neighbourhoods in their east Aleppo stronghold and may be just weeks away from total defeat in Syria’s largest city.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed since the regime offensive began two weeks ago and more than 10,000 people have fled their homes in the last two days as Syrian army troops and their allies rapidly advanced into opposition areas.
“This is [the rebels’] worst defeat since they seized half the city in 2012,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Rebel fighters have been defending a kidney-shaped enclave in east Aleppo since July when regime forces surrounded them and cut off their supply routes to opposition areas in the countryside.

While the frontlines around east Aleppo have ebbed and flowed, rebel forces have been mostly able to hold out despite punishing airstrikes from Russian and regime jets and intense ground attacks launched by Syrian troops along with Hizbollah fighters and Shia militias.

But rebel lines in the northern part of east Aleppo collapsed on Monday and over a few chaotic hours they were driven out of four of the key neighbourhoods they had spent months fighting to defend.

“This is a turning point,” said Michael Horowitz, director of intelligence for the Prime Source consulting group. “What we’re seeing could be the beginning of the end for the opposition not just in Aleppo but across Syria.”

Victory in Aleppo would give Mr Assad control over Syria’s largest cities as well as its strategic coastline, significantly strengthening his position with the country and on the international stage.

​A rebel defeat in Aleppo could also cause the opposition’s main backers in Qatar and Saudi Arabia to reconsider whether it was worth sending more arms and money to rebel groups that continue to lose on the battlefield.

There are around 275,000 civilians living in east Aleppo. Around 4,000 fled into regime-held west Aleppo on Monday and another 6,000 escaped to a Kurdish held area in the north of the city, according to the SOHR.

Hundreds more reportedly retreated into the remaining opposition neighbourhoods where they sought shelter from the winter cold in bombed-out buildings or on the streets. There are no functioning hospitals left in the area and the UN has warned that civilians are days away from starvation.

"The situation is disastrous," said Ibrahim Abu Al-Leith, a spokesman for the White Helmets rescue group. "There is mass displacement and morale is in the gutter. People are sleeping in the streets. They don't have anything to eat or drink, but neither do we.”

Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, called for an immediate ceasefire so humanitarian aid could be delivered to civilians but both Russia and the Syrian regime have ignored similar calls from the UN for weeks.

Modar Shekho, a nurse and opposition activist, said people in east Aleppo were worried about bloody reprisals by the Syrian regime against civilians once it re-established control in the city.

“God forbid, I hope the regime does not massacre us when it takes control of these neighbourhoods,” the 28-year-old told The Telegraph. Mr Shekho’s brother was killed on Monday when the family’s house was bombed in the al-Mashad neighbourhood. He had already lost a sister to an airstrike in 2012.

Rebel groups have continued shelling western Aleppo and their fire killed three civilians and wounded 29 people on Monday, according to the SOHR
AJ also reports it, and credits the help of Iranian and Russian forces which allowed Assad to improve his fortunes. If you told me 2 years ago Putin would be doing Russian intervention in various countries like Syria and throwing Russian weight around, not seen since the Cold War, I would have thought you crazy. Shows how much I know.
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cosmicalstorm
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by cosmicalstorm »

Funny to see the CIAs front White Helmets etc bitch and moan.
Guess the poor people of Aleppo will never be ruled using proper Sharia laws now.
And the tap water is back on now that the rebels have abandoned the water pumps, the humanity!
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

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Good.

Its been clear since the first year of this conflict ended this was going to be the end and best result. The choices were failed state, ISIS controlled state, or Assad. This half a decade of destruction and death has been perpetuated to give non decisive westerners a warm fuzzy. Let it end, no aftermath can possibly be as bad as another year, two years, or decade of war even if it resembles Assad's dad's brutal response to crushing his own uprisings.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by K. A. Pital »

I think the only people who really got "a warm fuzzy" about the bloodbath were Saudis.

But it's not over - yet.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

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I am alluding to the anemic military aid we supply to the Rebels that is basically designed to perpetuate stalemate. As long as the Rebels are fighting, regardless of the casualties and destruction that result, Obama and other Western leaders can pretend they are fighting the good fight. The reality is they have no intention of facilitating a win, preventing the immediate collapse of the Rebels is a pure vanity move.

If you they not going to provide a viable path to victory, whatever that looks like, no aid should have been given to the Rebels at all. It accomplished nothing, and inflicted grievous harm on millions.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

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Russia is now claiming Assad has won.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-14/s ... ys/8118440
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Local news saying rebels have capitulated. Hopefully the bloodbath can end now.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by loomer »

It might end in the open, but Assad's forces are going to be doing a hell of a lot of torture and executions in the coming weeks. Aleppo isn't out of hell, it's just plunged into a new, quieter one. The twitter feeds from people there are already sad and horrifying.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

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His Divine Shadow wrote:Local news saying rebels have capitulated. Hopefully the bloodbath can end now.
The bloodbath is only just beginning. Anyone who couldn't get out of Aleppo now gets to find out what happens when you annoy an authoritarian government with a security service that is infamous for "disappearing" people and later dumping them on street corners having been tortured to death (although social media reports seem to indicate that Syrian government forces weren't even waiting that long; with reports of summary executions of civilians.) Not to mention there are still substantial swathes of rebellious territory that still remain in Syria.

So what happens is few remaining Westerners who care about Aleppo will stop paying attention (since for a lot of people Aleppo = the rebellion,) leaving Assad's forces free to do, basically whatever they want, to the remaining opposition.
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His Divine Shadow
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Bad as that is, I doubt it'll reach the death toll of the civil war.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by Tribble »

If true, all this means is that the American Industrial-military complex will move on to its next target peace-keeping mission. Gotta keep the cash rolling in, what use is there for a giant military complex with no war to fight? Who do you think will be America's next victim?
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Tribble wrote:If true, all this means is that the American Industrial-military complex will move on to its next target peace-keeping mission. Gotta keep the cash rolling in, what use is there for a giant military complex with no war to fight? Who do you think will be America's next victim?
President-elect Trump appears to be perfectly happy to let his BFF Putin have Syria. The incoming administration is making noises about Iran, and has decided to directly question the One China policy, and China in general; if you're looking for reasons to not sleep tonight.
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Re: Assad looks like he is going to take Aleppo

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Well they've been trying to evac civilians from what's left of the city for days now. It's been stop-start for the entire time as every so often the convoys of buses come under fire- footage of one that had five vehicles destroyed by fire emerged yesterday.

What I find surprising is that the Syrian Government and its allies have neither demanded the Rebels surrender from the last district or stormed it- it's a bit late for them to show concern for civilians trapped after all this time.
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