Thoughts on Iraq's "unconventional" tactics

[Durandal]

From
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/04/inter ... ARINE.html

UTSIDE BAGHDAD, April 4 ? American marines advanced to the Baghdad city limits today, meeting scant resistance, and stopped at the brink of entry, awaiting orders.

Overnight and early today there was a shattering bombardment of what remained of the Nida division of the Republican Guard, with artillery shelling Iraqi tanks from as much as 20 miles away and B52's firing from above.

The reports from 155-milimeter guns were so powerful that they blew off the tarps and broke the windshields of nearby American military vehicles, officers said.

The First Marine Division raced behind the Nida division, whose burnt-out tanks littered the roadside. Local residents cheered the Americans, as they did on Thursday.

Two captured members of the Medina group of the Republican Guard said today that under intense bombardment on Thursday, hundreds of their fellow soldiers gave up the fight, slipping away from the guard. Many tore off their triangle insignias, the two said.

Today's advance left the marines about 10 miles from downtown Baghdad and across town from the Third Infantry Division, which took control of the city's airport, on its west side. The dual positions put the city in a powerful vise.

Iraqi television broadcast another address today from President Saddam Hussein in which he called on Iraqis to continue to resist against the United States-led invasion.

"Let the criminals lose," he said.

Although Mr. Hussein made one topical reference during the broadcast ? the capture of an Apache helicopter in central Iraq on March 24 ? it was uncertain when the broadcast was taped or whether it was actually Mr. Hussein or one of the doubles that he has used from time to time.

Iraq's information minister, Muhammad Said al-Sahhaf , today said that Iraq would use "unconventional" tactics to fight the coalition's advance on Baghdad.

Asked whether he meant the use of chemical or biological weapons, he replied: "No. that's not what I said. What I meant are commando and martyrdom operations in a very new, creative way."

The United States Central Command said today that three American soldiers were killed at a checkpoint late Thursday night in a suicide car bombing near the Haditha Dam, which is northwest of Baghdad and about 80 miles east of the Syrian border.

The driver of the vehicle and a pregnant woman who was with him were killed in the explosion, according to Central Command.

"These are not military actions," Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, deputy director of operations for Central Command, told reporters today at the daily briefing in Qatar. "These are terrorist actions."

With strong momentum, the Americans might wish to enter the city, but generals must decide whether the risk of street-by-street fighting and chemical attack argues in favor of holding back.

The bulk of the First Marine Division crossed the Tigris River on Thursday from the southeast, and wheeled northward, pausing to do battle with several hundred Iraqi soldiers who decided to stand and fight.

As the marines pushed northward during the day Thursday, thousands of Iraqi civilians were fleeing Baghdad and its surrounding cities, some of them going south, cheering and encouraging the troops as they passed.

It was one of the first signs of a large movement of people out of Baghdad since the American bombing began two weeks ago, and one of the warmest receptions the Americans have gotten to date.

The Iraqis crammed into buses, cars and taxis, piling out of a city they said was no longer safe. One man drove himself and his family south on a motorcycle and sidecar, another in a 1954 Dodge pickup. A third man, standing in the bed of his pickup, raced down the highway shouting the only words in English he knew.

"George Bush!" he cried, whizzing past.

The cars and buses carrying southbound Iraqis were so jammed that even some Iraqi soldiers jumped abroad, hoping to make an escape. Many Iraqis, fearful of the convoy streaming past them, waved white flags, some fashioned out of bed sheets and T-shirts. One woman waved a pair of boxer shorts. Today's advance came after waves of civilians streamed out of Baghdad and its surrounding cities on Thursday.

That exodus continued today. The Associated Press quoted some witnesses as saying that there were lines of vehicles bumper to bumper extending up to six miles.

The outpouring by the Iraqis marked a break with days past, when the reception offered by townspeople had often been more muted. For days, as American troops swept through the country, Iraqis often refrained from offering their opinions, fearful of reprisals, some said, especially if the Iraqi president survived.

But on Thursday, as the goal of the American military effort became apparent, Iraqis seemed to feel little urge to keep their emotions in check.

I've got to admit, this has me creeped out. An Iraqi official said that thousands of Iraqi volunteers had signed on for suicide attacks against the Coalition forces currently holding Saddam International Airport, but he said that weapons of mass destruction aren't what he means.

Now, coming from a country who keeps claiming not to have weapons of mass destruction when it's clear, at this point, that they do, a statement that they won't use those weapons (which they don't have) isn't exactly worth a whole lot. I suppose that the guy could always be bluffing, trying to scare the forces in there, but I doubt it. If there's anyone who could think of creative ways of martyrdom, it's the Iraqis.

So, what do you think? What are they planning? Is it for real? Are the Iraqis underestimating our troops' capability to deal with what they have?

EDIT: Added link and content of article, since NYT requires a subscription.

[Kelly Antilles]

You know what comes to my mind when they talk of the suicide bombers? Lemmings.

[Durandal]

Stupid fucking subject line limit.

[Warspite]

The Iraqis can't afford to use WMD's, otherwise they would be caught lying (in the eyes of the International community, and more important, in the eyes of the Arab world), and give validity for the invasion of Iraq. They are more inteligent than that, they must keep playing the card of victim.
They are being invaded for no good reason, it's the Americans who have invaded their country, why?
They don't have these WMD's, that Bush claim they have... This card needs to be played to the end.

Note the briefings the Ministry of Information produces daily, are getting very unrealistic, much of it is more intended for internal consumption, in a way to reassure the illusioned elite that they still have control. Or, in another way, much of it can be disregarded, since it's mainly political propaganda for themselves, than a viable, credible, threat. (As a side note, most of it is televised, something the average Iraqi doesn't have... This raises some interesting thougt, also, another thought, word-of-mouth is a reality that has to be taken into account, do you think the Iraqis that saw that armoured column wouldn't say anything about it?)

Now, this doesn't mean those threats shouldn't be taken serious, quite the contrary, they are serious, but not in a cataclismic sort of way, not in a human wave, car bombing the hell out of the Americans sort of way. Surely, there will be suicidal attacks, there will be ambushes. But not this ominous, apocalyptic, blood bath that the message of the Minister implies.
The raid this morning is a good proof, after all, the Iraqis could had made a disaster of that raid, but it turned out to have unconcerted, even sporadic, attempts at the US column, not the overwhelmed attacks expected, if the briefings would be taken at face value.

And when the troops enter Bagdad properly? It's dangerous to speculate, since a lot is not known, but I think we will see a mix of reactions, in several places there will be more tenacious firefights, and in other places, the people will simply let the US troops pass... Najaf is a good evaluation, as is Basrah. (And there's a thread on Basrah already, let's leave it there.)
There have been a lot of surprises in this operation, Bagdad will be a big one.

[Darth Gojira]

"Let the criminals die", eh? Looks like Mr. Hussy has suicidal impulses.... I couldn't resist....