US Government telling other countries not to expect JCPOA to be restored

[Straha]

Two Articles:

First, from Haaretz.

U.S. officials who visited Israel with CIA Director William Burns believe that the chances of Iran returning to the 2015 nuclear deal are slim, Israeli officials familiar with the details said Wednesday.
Members of Burns’ delegation, the Israeli officials said, clarified to their Israeli counterparts that they do not expect that the discussions with Iran that are being promoted by global superpowers will bear fruit. Following the swearing-in of Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi last week, Israeli officials have also assessed that it is unlikely that Iran will return to the deal.
Although Israel wants the United States to join it in displaying a significant military threat against Iran, the sources said, “It does not look like the Americans have the intention of responding militarily, and it is unlikely at the moment that there will be such a response.”
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Burns met Wednesday for their first work meeting since assuming their positions. The premier and the director have “discussed the situation in the Middle East, with emphasis on Iran, and possibilities for expanding and deepening regional cooperation,” a statement from the Prime Minister’s office said.
Mossad Chief David Barnea and Defense Minister Benny Gantz also met with Burns, the minister said in a tweet, adding they discussed the Iranian nuclear program and “the need to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and other moderates in the region.”
Burns, who is visiting Israel for the first time since his appointment in March, is also expected to meet with the Palestinian Authority leadership.
Israel has been trying in recent weeks to harness the United States to promote dramatic steps against Iran, if Iran declares that it won’t renew the nuclear agreement. The defense establishment is afraid of a scenario in which Iran will delay its announcement for months to prevent international action against it.
Israeli officials are now trying to ascertain if the U.S. administration is willing to mobilize the international community for a significant pressure campaign against Iran if it rejects the deal, in order to force it to give up its nuclear ambitions in the near future.
Israeli sources say that recently there was an attempt to determine if the United States is capable of carrying out its plan to formulate a tougher follow-up nuclear agreement, and to coerce Iran into signing it. The original intention of the United States is to implement the new treaty in 2030, the expiration date of the present agreement.

CNN has a much longer article here, which I won't quote at length for readability purposes.


The long story short is that the United States is basically throwing away the best tool it has to deescalate tensions in the Middle East because it would rather posture than undo the sanctions it imposed without a quid pro quo in place. Which is, of course, absurd because the United States is the one that broke the deal in the first place.

[Solauren]

The explaination should be:

Odds are, Iran wouldn't sign it anyway, as the United States has shown that one of the two major political parties is willing to ignore international law and agreements, as well as their own intelligence agencies facts, and do whatever the hell they want.

[Straha]

The explaination should be:

Odds are, Iran wouldn't sign it anyway, as the United States has shown that one of the two major political parties is willing to ignore international law and agreements, as well as their own intelligence agencies facts, and do whatever the hell they want.

Iran did sign it, and Iran's position since the US leaving the deal is that they're still willing to be bound by the terms of the agreement if the US undoes its imposition of sanctions. Iran views the US position of demanding pre-emptive concessions from Iran before the US returns to the agreement as insulting dickwaving lunacy, and rightly so.

[Solauren]

So, if the current administration undoes the stupidity of the previous administration, Iran will follow the deal?

Biden, get your head out of your ass on this one.

[MKSheppard]

I wish both Israel and Iran would stop making coy eyes at each other and just get this show on the road, instead of trying to rope as many outsiders as possible into their little prat.

[Highlord Laan]

No point in keeping it around anyway. The misadministration of cheeto bennito and the continued pants-on-head retardation of less than half the of population empowered by a broken and archaic system has made it abundantly clear to the world that uhmurrikuh is not a reliable ally or honest dealer. Biden could be the second coming of JFK, and it wouldn't matter, since we have worthless nonperson filth like mcconnel, desnatis and the supremes doing everything they can to make sure they and their braindead legions of drooling idiots get back into power.

No point in attempting to deal with uhmurrikuh in any fashion when four years later some fucking idiot will be in position to fuck things up again. So, good on Biden. Cut off enough foreign ties to help contain the damage to the world when the fucking magatards take back power. Hopefully the isolation is more complete in 2024.

[Solauren]

I wish both Israel and Iran would stop making coy eyes at each other and just get this show on the road, instead of trying to rope as many outsiders as possible into their little prat.

They're like any other spoiled children. They want someone else involved in the fight, so they can pass the blame when it backfires.

[Straha]

I wish both Israel and Iran would stop making coy eyes at each other and just get this show on the road, instead of trying to rope as many outsiders as possible into their little prat.

They're like any other spoiled children. They want someone else involved in the fight, so they can pass the blame when it backfires.

It's not just them. And, in reality, it's not even that duo that are the main players.

Israel's focus on Iran is largely played up for domestic consumption, and vice-versa. Iran poses little to no actual threat to Israel given the debilitating sanctions on its economy, the massive geographic distance, and the comparative strength of the militaries. The idea that Iran could reasonably strike Israel in any way is... far fetched. Internal to Israel, outside of paranoid hawks, it's an easy way to play to the cheap seats without actually ruffling feathers. If you want to drum up fear of invasion the actual neighbors of Israel are: Jordan and Egypt, who pose no threat to Israel and/or have become low-key allies of the Israeli government, Syria and Lebanon, who are complicated confusing messes and difficult to keep drumming up fear again, and (across the water) Saudi Arabia, who are a real power and Israel doesn't want to piss off directly.

Netanyahu may have believed in his fear-mongering personally, he may not have, but his talking points against Iran were hotly contested inside of Israel and were designed for easy pickup by a domestic audience looking to fearmonger. As for him being the critical influence on Trump to withdraw, possible but who knows? Trump is an enigma wrapped up inside of a stained diner child's placemat.

The real players against Iran are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Gulf States. Geopolitics means that control over the Persian Gulf and its shipping lanes puts them at immediate odds, and Iran's history of militant Shia revolution targeted at royalty puts it inimically at odds with the Sunni royalties in those Gulf states. Something which is compounded by the large, and actively suppressed, Shia minorities (or, in the case of Bahrain, majority) in those states. Given the Saudi's closeness to the GOP, and especially the Bush and Trump clans, I'd put my money on them being the real influencers on JCPOA withdrawal because they view any toleration of Iranian ambition as perilous to their existence and want to maintain the hardest possible line against them, and the pitch of a "internally stable Iran with a growing economy" has few, if any, upside in their book.

No point in keeping it around anyway. The misadministration of cheeto bennito and the continued pants-on-head retardation of less than half the of population empowered by a broken and archaic system has made it abundantly clear to the world that uhmurrikuh is not a reliable ally or honest dealer. Biden could be the second coming of JFK, and it wouldn't matter, since we have worthless nonperson filth like mcconnel, desnatis and the supremes doing everything they can to make sure they and their braindead legions of drooling idiots get back into power.

No point in attempting to deal with uhmurrikuh in any fashion when four years later some fucking idiot will be in position to fuck things up again. So, good on Biden. Cut off enough foreign ties to help contain the damage to the world when the fucking magatards take back power. Hopefully the isolation is more complete in 2024.

Sanctions are bad and kill people. Iran wants those sanctions gone. If Iran can get those sanctions lifted, even for a few years, it boosts its economy, saves lives, and stabilizes the region. Iran wants this. Europe wants this. Much of the world wants this. Even if the US is run by drooling idiots it's better for Iran that they get this deal and better for the world. And for Biden to look at the GOP and say "Well, they exist so I can't possibly make this deal work" is such inanity that it's not worth entertaining.

[Highlord Laan]

The GOP existing is a blight on humanity as a whole and America in particular. It is hardly insanity to see the writing on the wall with that legion of low, worthless filth. Nothing will ever be achieved for the better of anyone that matters so long as they're still around and have a voice.

So, taking the entirely cynical stance that uhmurrikuh needs to be contained and destroyed to root out the decay, cancer and filth is both entirely sane, and completely laudable. The world wants to move on, bring the Mideast into the fold, and finally advance from the diseased miasma of Cold War excess and stupidity? Good. To do so they must cut uhmurrikuh loose and never look back.

[MKSheppard]

Sanctions are bad and kill people.

You forgot "Drive up price of all ammunition in the USA by 30-40% or more.", Straha.

[Broomstick]

The reason ammo is skyrocketing in price (again) is because the GOP is yet again panicking its base because that's their only tool left for getting votes. First it was OMG! Black man in the Oval Office, hide yer wimmin! Then it was immigrants. Then it was "The Left". Then immigrants again. Then OMG! Democrat in the Oval Office!

Something like that. Frankly, I can't keep up with the alerts for the GOP sheep anymore.

(Anyone else note the irony that the idiots who push back on every single damn rational protective measure for covid because they don't want to be "sheeple" are not dosing themselves into liver failure with dosages of ivermectin intended for livestock... including sheep?)

[MKSheppard]

The reason ammo is skyrocketing in price (again) is because the GOP is yet again panicking its base because that's their only tool left for getting votes.

Bless your heart, Broomstick.

fact-sheet-united-states-imposes-additional-costs-on-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny

Description of Sanctions: Pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (the CBW Act), the United States will impose a second round of sanctions on the Russian Federation over its use of a “Novichok” nerve agent in the August 2020 poisoning of Russian opposition figure Aleksey Navalny.

New sanctions imposed today under the CBW Act include:

Restrictions on the permanent imports of certain Russian firearms. New and pending permit applications for the permanent importation of firearms and ammunition manufactured or located in Russia will be subject to a policy of denial.

Basically 40% of all ammunition sold in the United States according to an ammo importer was:

MADE IN RUSSIA
STEEL CASE IS GOOD FOR YOUR AK TOVARISCH.

Lots of people shot it because it was significantly cheaper.

What happens when you eliminate 40% of a given supply of anything for the indefinite future?

Bueller?

Anyone?

Even the supposed target of aid, Navalny basically says sanctions won't hurt the elite in Russia:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/worl ... erpts.html

[Tribble]

Sanctions are bad and kill people.

You forgot "Drive up price of all ammunition in the USA by 30-40% or more.", Straha.

That’s an interesting response.

Would you care to elaborate? Because it seems that based on your posts in this thread so far, you want a war to happen and kill a bunch of people, with your only concerns about sanctions that will also hurt and kill people being that the price of ammunition for ur guns will be going up.

Is that an accurate assessment?

[Broomstick]

The reason ammo is skyrocketing in price (again) is because the GOP is yet again panicking its base because that's their only tool left for getting votes.

Bless your heart, Broomstick.

If you're going to say "fuck you" do it in plain English and not Southern Belle Bitch.

Even if sanctions against Russia are a factor this time around it doesn't explain the prior jumps in price due to panic buying.

[Solauren]

Even the supposed target of aid, Navalny basically says sanctions won't hurt the elite in Russia:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/worl ... erpts.html

Sanctions rarely if ever hurt the elite anywhere they are put down. All they did is hurt the common people, in hopes they'll rise up to overthrow their government, to get the sanctions removed.

And it doesn't fucking work like that. Because the victims of the sanctions blame the people that put them on, not their leaders. Instead, the leaders use it to further unite the people against an outside enemy.

It's rare sanctions will work. The only types of countries they would work on would be classic 'first world countries', and that if you hit everything.