Ukraine seizes 28 Russian villages in Kursk region as over 100,000 forced to flee

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine seizes 28 Russian villages in Kursk region as over 100,000 forced to flee

More than 100,000 civilians have been forced to flee the Kursk region of Russia, after the Ukranian army took control of 28 villages since launching their attack almost a week ago.

Vladimir Putin has vowed to "kick the enemy out" of Russian territory, after officials in Kursk informed him Ukrainian troops had managed to advance 12 kilometres into the territory across a 40 kilometre stretch of the border.

The Russian president said: “It’s obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilise the situation in the border zone to try to destabilise the domestic political situation in our country."

He claimed the attack marked an attempt by Ukraine to secure a better negotiating position in any future talks to end the war.

Posting an update on X, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was "grateful to all soldiers and commanders for their resilience and decisive actions."

He also suggested Ukraine would offer humanitarian assistance in the region, where Russian authorities claim 12 civilians have been killed and 121 others, including 10 children, have been wounded.

The attack marks the largest ground incursion on Russian soil by Ukrainian forces in the two-and-a-half years since the war began - and also the most significant attack since World War Two.

State propaganda has tried to play down the attack, which took Russian forces by complete surprise.

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The aim of the Ukrainian operation - and whether forces are aiming to hold Russian territory, or stage hit-and-run raids - is unclear.

Around 121,000 people have fled the areas where fighting is taking place, with a total planned number of evacuations estimated to be 180,000, acting governor of Kursk Alexei Smirnov confirmed.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the neighbouring Belgorod region, said people living in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district were being moved to safety.

"I am sure that our military will do everything to cope with this threat," he said.

"But to protect the life and health of our people, we are beginning to relocate people who live in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district to safer places."

[Rogue 9]

He claimed the attack marked an attempt by Ukraine to secure a better negotiating position in any future talks to end the war.

I mean, yes? Obviously? Also an apparently successful attempt to make Russia reallocate troops from other fronts, so there's that too.

[His Divine Shadow]

Well well well, if it isn't the consequences of my actions.

Ballsy move though, and it seems to be working.

[wautd]

Apart from his nauseating professional victimhood and projecting his war crimes on the Ukrainian defenders, Putin appears to be panicking and wanting to micromanage everything.
About two days ago he fired Gerasimov and replaced him with KGB/FSB boss Bortnikov to command the defense in Kursk.
I guess he quickly realized that giving too much power to the FSB isn't smart for his own survival, so within less than 24 hours, Bortnikov is already being replaced with Putin's loyal bodyguard Dyumin (former secret service).

Ukraine must be thanking their lucky starts that in Putin's Russia, loyalty is rewarded over competence (not that Gerasimov or Bortnikov would be competent either). Soon Putin won't have anyone left to blame

[Ralin]

He claimed the attack marked an attempt by Ukraine to secure a better negotiating position in any future talks to end the war.

I mean, yes? Obviously? Also an apparently successful attempt to make Russia reallocate troops from other fronts, so there's that too.

More the latter. Unless I'm misunderstanding something this is a raid and they don't have any real chance of holding onto that territory for some sort of negotiated exchange. Still, seems like a good thing.

[bilateralrope]

He claimed the attack marked an attempt by Ukraine to secure a better negotiating position in any future talks to end the war.

I mean, yes? Obviously? Also an apparently successful attempt to make Russia reallocate troops from other fronts, so there's that too.

More the latter. Unless I'm misunderstanding something this is a raid and they don't have any real chance of holding onto that territory for some sort of negotiated exchange. Still, seems like a good thing.

Ukrainian Troops Are Digging Trenches In Russia’s Kursk Oblast. It’s A Sign They Plan To Stay.

David Axe
Forbes Staff

Aug 11, 2024,04:22pm EDT

Every day the Russians don’t counterattack is a day the Ukrainians dig in deeper.

On the sixth day of Ukraine’s advance into Kursk Oblast in southern Russia, there’s growing evidence the Ukrainian invasion corps—some or all of up to five 2,000-person brigades plus at least one 400-person independent battalion—plans to stay.

The Ukrainians are digging trenches. Anticipating static warfare along or near the existing front line, the Russians are digging in, too.

That both sides are fortifying their positions doesn’t mean the Ukrainians are done advancing. Nor does it mean the Russians can’t counterattack—and push the Ukrainians back to the border, 10 miles away.

But it does mean that stabilization of the front line—and a long-term Ukrainian occupation of part of Kursk—is on the table.

Russian military correspondent Aleksandr Kharchenko observed Ukrainian forces digging trenches in Kursk on Sunday. He described it as “the worst thing that can happen,” according to a translation of his missive by Estonian analyst War Translated.

Ukrainian sources have spotted industrial excavators at work on both sides of the front line.

“Once the enemy picks up shovels, in two days it will be just as difficult to take the forest stands as it was near Avdiivka” in eastern Ukraine, Kharchenko added. It took the Russian military six months to roll back Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka—and cost it tens of thousands of casualties.

Arguably, the Russians won the battle for Avdiivka in mid-February only because the Ukrainians ran out of ammunition following months of delays in U.S. aid to Ukraine orchestrated by Russia-friendly lawmakers in the U.S. Congress.

Now that U.S. aid is flowing again, Russian forces around the Kursk salient can’t count on the Ukrainian invasion corps running out of ammo. To push potentially thousands of Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, they’ll have to capture one trench at a time.

Unless, of course, the Kremlin can organize a powerful counterattack before the Ukrainian trenches are complete. But “the window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” Kharchenko warned—and Ukrainian attacks are blocking Russian reinforcements trying to reach the Kursk front line.

Russian columns “are met by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, drones and artillery,” wrote Artur Rehi, an Estonian soldier and analyst.

If and when it stabilizes, the Kursk salient could become another major front in Russia’s 29-month wider war on Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have already positioned potentially more than 10,000 troops in Kursk and the adjacent Ukrainian oblast, Sumy. And according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces is trying to move 10 to 11 battalions to the front line—perhaps 4,000 troops in all.

Those 10 or so Russian battalions are just the initial echelon, however. On paper, the Northern Grouping of Forces oversees 48,000 troops. Many of them are bogged down in Vovchansk, the locus of Russia’s own attack across the Russia-Ukraine border that kicked off in May.

But if it gives up trying to advance in Vovchansk and other front-line towns and cities, the Russian military could shift significant forces to Kursk. Indeed, compelling the Russians to deplete their forces along other fronts may have been the Ukrainian invasion corps’ main objective.

Kyiv is probably trying to “divert some of the Russian attention and Russian troops stationed in the eastern parts of Ukraine,” France 24’s Emmanuelle Chaze noted, citing Ukrainian sources.

Once the trenches are complete, that diversion could become long-term—if not permanent.

It sounds like Ukraine is planning to stay there for a while.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I'd wager they're also taking measures to protect their flanks to prevent encirclement because looking at the map it looks like a textbook example of a salient, reminiscent of another battle in that same area 80 years ago when it was also a salient pointing the other way.

I'm normally wary of opening up a second front like Russia had been considering through Belarus because it creates as many issues for the attackers as defenders and is probably why Russia decided against it, however it does look more like an expansion of the same front instead of opening up a new one.

[Vympel]

He claimed the attack marked an attempt by Ukraine to secure a better negotiating position in any future talks to end the war.

I mean, yes? Obviously? Also an apparently successful attempt to make Russia reallocate troops from other fronts, so there's that too.

Literally noone I've seen believes that Russia has reallocated any significant number of troops to deal with this dumb stunt, and Russian advances in the Donbas continue unabated. The response to this in the western commentariat has actually been refreshingly sceptical / negative for once, as opposed to their getting carried away in the belief this will somehow result in something significant, like the previous Belgorod stunts or the go-nowhere counteroffensive of 2023. It's a spectacularly foolish waste of things that are in extremely short supply (manpower and vehicles) and has no clear point.

Rob Lee, referring to the NYT:

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1823382115016118314

"'Our guys do not feel any relief,' said Artem Dzhepko, a press officer with Ukraine’s National Police Brigade, which is fighting near the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces there were still using as many as 10 aerial bombs a day, he said.

On Monday morning, the attacks near Toretsk continued, said Yevhen Strokan, a senior lieutenant and commander of a combat drone platoon in the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion.

'I don’t feel a decrease in intensity,' Mr. Strokan said. 'Everything is being assaulted in the same way.'"
@antontroian
, Kim Barker, and Evelina Riabenko

and the WSJ:

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1823523909930520696

Another soldier said he was surprised to learn he was being transferred to the Sumy border region as his unit was so short of men that infantry spent as long as 45 days straight in a trench. The 25-year-old had been stationed in Chasiv Yar, one of the hottest spots on the front line, until a week before the incursion...

Units being deprived of men for this along critical sectors of the front. Absolutely baffling stuff.

Ukrainian Troops Are Digging Trenches In Russia’s Kursk Oblast. It’s A Sign They Plan To Stay.

“Once the enemy picks up shovels, in two days it will be just as difficult to take the forest stands as it was near Avdiivka” in eastern Ukraine, Kharchenko added. It took the Russian military six months to roll back Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka—and cost it tens of thousands of casualties.

Pure clownery. Avdiivka was a major fortified city that the Ukrainains built up for over a decade. The notion that a freshly dug trench in forest wilderness would render this territory 'just as difficult to take' is asinine. Dumb takes abound.

[Gandalf]

Units being deprived of men for this along critical sectors of the front. Absolutely baffling stuff.

Zelenskyy needs good news to keep people enlisting and keep foreign governments interested in Ukraine. That's the sole reason I can deduce for this sort of offensive. Does Kursk have any real value aside from symbolism?

[wautd]

Units being deprived of men for this along critical sectors of the front. Absolutely baffling stuff.

Zelenskyy needs good news to keep people enlisting and keep foreign governments interested in Ukraine. That's the sole reason I can deduce for this sort of offensive. Does Kursk have any real value aside from symbolism?

Russia was bombing Ukraine from withing the Kursk region, so by creating a buffer zone inside Russia, it might help to take some pressure of Ukrainian cities like Soemy. And who knows, if they somehow reach the nuclear power plant further up north, they'd have a massive bargaining chip.
But so far it's probably mostly symbolic, but sometimes symbolic offensives can have a significant aftermath (eg. the Tet Offensive in the Vietnam war).
I could imagine it would be a morale boost for the Ukrainian defenders, to finally take the fight to the aggressor, and liberate a large area after Russia slowly nibbling away small areas for months on end.
It also makes the Russian dictator look incredibly weak, and Putin reshuffling the incompetent generals he appointed won't fix the current chaos and lack of leadership in the Kursk region any time soon.
However, apart from the people in Kursk, I doubt that most Russians will wake up that the war of aggression started by their country is entering its own borders. The Putin regime still controls all the media and narrative

[Vympel]

Russia was bombing Ukraine from withing the Kursk region so by creating a buffer zone inside Russia, it might help to take some pressure of Ukrainian cities like Soemy.

There's been no significant combat in the Sumy region at all, the idea that it makes sense to send precious manpower and equipment which is badly needed all along the front into a fresh and quiet sector to prevent bombing (which can only apply to artillery, since the Russian Air Force can bomb at will) would be totally irrational.

And who knows, if they somehow reach the nuclear power plant further up north, they'd have a massive bargaining chip.

There's absolutely no prospect of this whatsoever though. It might as well be in Siberia fow how far it is out of reach. Ukrainian progress has already stalled.

But so far it's probably mostly symbolic

It's actually this, if anything. Narrative management, public morale, demonstrating Ukraine is still in the fight, attempting to reverse months of increasingly negative coverage.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine claims to have captured more than 100 Russian soldiers as they advance into Kursk region

Ukrainian forces have pushed deeper into Russia's Kursk region capturing more than 100 prisoners, gaining more territory and destroying a jet bomber in its continuing incursion.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian troops advanced one to two miles in parts of Kursk, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military, said on Telegram.

Syrskyi reported Ukrainian troops captured over 100 Russian soldiers on Wednesday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said these prisoners would be used in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Ukraine's General Staff, Anatoliy Barhylevych, added that troops in Kursk destroyed a Russian Su-34 jet, which had been used to launch glide bombs at Ukrainian front-line positions and cities.

Military analysts believe the incursion could involve as many as 10,000 Ukrainian troops backed by armour and artillery.

Ukraine's surprise incursion into the neighbouring Kursk region on August 6 is the first time a foreign military has entered Russian territory since the Nazis in the Second World War.

Meanwhile, the Russian region of Belgorod declared an emergency after new Ukrainian attacks with Kyiv claiming 1,000 square kilometres - although this has not been independently verified.

However, if true, it would mean Ukraine took just one week to capture the equivalent area of land Russian forces took in Ukraine between January and July 2024, according to calculations by the Institute for the Study of War.

Belgorod's governor Vyacheslav Gladko declared an emergency on Wednesday after the region began evacuation earlier on Monday.

A Russian woman currently in Belgorod said less people were openly supporting the war since the incursion began.

“When explosions started near the city, when people were dying and when all this started happening before our eyes … and when it affected people personally, they stopped at least openly supporting the war," she said.

In a video message posted on Telegram, he said: "The situation in the Belgorod region continues to be extremely difficult and tense."

Children are being moved to safety, with about 5,000 currently in camps in secure areas, he said.

He also reported that around 11,000 people had fled their homes, with about 1,000 staying in temporary accommodation centres.

Gladkov said regional authorities are now appealing to Vladimir Putin's Russian government to declare a federal emergency.

He added that Ukrainian drones targeted two locations in Belgorod - the city of Shebekino and the village of Ustinka - but no casualties were reported.

Russia's defence ministry reported on Wednesday that it had destroyed dozens of drones and four tactical missiles over the Kursk region, as part of a larger assault in which air defences downed 117 "aircraft-type" drones overnight.

Since Ukraine's incursion began, over 132,000 people have been evacuated and 74 villages in the Kursk region are now under Ukrainian control.

Russian authorities have announced plans to evacuate another 59,000 more people.

This situation poses a potential embarrassment for Putin as he scrambles to halt the advance and “kick the enemy out” of Russia.

Counter-terrorism operations have been imposed in Kursk, Belgorod and another border region, Bryansk.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy said its forces are making preparations for “next steps” in the Kursk region.

US president Joe Biden addressed the incursion on Tuesday, saying that he was receiving regular updates from his staff and that it was "creating a real dilemma for Putin."

A Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed there are no intentions to occupy any Russian territory, as the purpose of the incursion is instead to stop Russia from firing missiles into Ukraine from Kursk.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine's surprise incursion in Russia: How will it affect the war?

Last week, Ukraine began an incursion into Russia's Kursk region, dealing a significant blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The surprise attack has overwhelmed Putin's military, resulting in Ukrainian control of 28 villages and forcing more than 100,000 civilians to flee the area.

Putin has vowed to "kick the enemy out" of Russian territory after officials in Kursk informed him Ukrainian troops had managed to advance 12km into the territory, across a 40-kilometre stretch of the border.

For Ukraine, the raid has provided a much-needed morale boost amid relentless Russian assaults along the extensive 1,000km front line, where its forces are stretched thin.

ITV News takes a look at the Ukrainian incursion and the potential consequences:

How the attack unfolded?

Last Tuesday, several experienced Ukrainian army brigades entered Russia's Kursk region, overpowering border guards and infantry at several checkpoints along the 152-mile border between the two countries.

Russian military bloggers reported Ukrainian mobile units, each with several armoured vehicles, swiftly advanced into Russian territory, bypassing fortifications and spreading panic across the region.

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Ukrainian forces advanced nearly 19 miles in some directions.

He explained the total area covered by the incursion is estimated to be around 154 square miles. It is unclear how much of that territory they actually control.

The Ukrainian military has extensively used drones to target Russian military vehicles and deployed electronic warfare to jam Russian drones and disrupt communications.

While smaller Ukrainian groups move through the region without seeking to hold territory, other troops have reportedly begun digging defensive positions in areas like the western part of Sudzha, a town about six miles from the border.

How is the Russian military responding?

Russian troops were reported to be caught off guard by the Ukrainian attack.

They struggled to respond quickly, as most of their forces were focused on the offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, leaving the Kursk border area sparsely defended.

Russian military bloggers claim the Russian units, made up of less experienced conscripts, were easily overpowered by seasoned Ukrainian forces.

Putin's military had to rely on warplanes and helicopter gunships to make up for its shortage of troops.

Ukraine managed to down at least one Russian helicopter and damaged another.

Russian reinforcements, supported by Wagner mercenaries - a private military company - have begun arriving in the Kursk region but have so far failed to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Sudzha and other areas.

On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukraine lost 945 soldiers over four days of fighting, but it did not disclose Russian casualties, and the figures could not be verified.

What are Ukrainian authorities saying about the incursion?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the incursion as "purely a security issue for Ukraine," and said his military was retaliating against Russian forces that had launched strikes from the Kursk region.

He added in a video post to his Telegram channel, that attacking Russian positions, airfields, and logistics used to strike Ukraine was “absolutely fair,” and the goal of the mission was the “liberation of the border from the Russian military".

Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, informed the president that Kyiv's forces control 386 square miles of the Kursk region, though this claim could not be verified.

Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggested the operation may improve Ukraine's future negotiations with Russia.

"When will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process in a way that we can push them or get something from them? Only when the war is not going on according to their scenarios," he said.

What is Russia saying?

The Russian President described the incursion as a "large-scale provocation" that involved "indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses and ambulances".

Putin suggested Ukraine's attack is an attempt to halt Moscow's offensive in the Ukrainian Donbas region and gain leverage in future peace talks.

Speaking to his top officials on Monday, he vowed Moscow would achieve all its military objectives.

"It’s obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilise the situation in the border zone to try to destabilise the domestic political situation in our country,” Putin said.

"(Russia’s main task is) to squeeze out, drive the enemy out of our territories and, together with the border service, to ensure reliable cover of the state border."

On Monday, the Kursk region's acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, reported 12 civilians had been killed and 121 others, including ten children, had been wounded since the incursion began.

He also said that Ukrainian forces have taken control of 28 settlements and about 121,000 people have been evacuated from the combat areas.

Russia has declared a federal emergency in the Kursk region and launched a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, and Bryansk, giving local authorities extra powers to manage the emergency and boost security.

What are Ukraine’s goals and how could the situation unfold?

Ukraine may be aiming to force Russia to divert resources from the Donetsk region, where Putin's forces have made slow but steady progress.

By holding on to Kursk territory, Ukraine could strengthen its position in future peace talks and potentially trade these areas for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

The incursion has also shattered the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia has remained unaffected by the war, and sent a strong message to Ukraine's allies that Zelenskyy's military could take control of the war.

However, despite the initial gains, the operation might deplete some of Ukraine’s most capable units and leave troops in Donetsk without crucial reinforcements.

Plus, establishing a lasting presence in the Kursk region could be challenging, as Ukrainian supply lines would be vulnerable to Russian attacks.

[Solauren]

I wonder if Ukraine can do a secret-withdraw, make the position look defended, and fake supply run attempts to keep Russia pounding at it and wasting ammo...

[bilateralrope]

Trying to outrun Ukrainian drones? Kursk traffic cams still issue speeding tickets.

Drones are everywhere. Traffic cameras don't care.
Nate Anderson - 8/29/2024, 5:50 AM

Imagine receiving a traffic ticket in the mail because you were speeding down a Russian road in Kursk with a Ukrainian attack drone on your tail. That's the reality facing some Russians living near the front lines after Ukraine's surprise seizure of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. And they're complaining about it on Telegram.

Rob Lee, a well-known analyst of the Ukraine/Russia war, comments on X that "traffic cameras are still operating in Kursk, and people are receiving speeding fines when trying to outrun FPVs [first-person-view attack drones]. Some have resorted to covering their license plates but the traffic police force them to remove them."

The Russian outlet Mash offers more details from a local perspective:

Volunteers and military volunteers who arrived in the Kursk region are asking the traffic police not to fine them for speeding when they are escaping from the drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Several people who are near the combat zone told Mash about this. Cameras are still recording violations in the border area, and when people try to escape from the drones, they receive letters of happiness [tickets]. One of the well-known military activists was charged 9k [rubles, apparently—about US$100] in just one day. He accelerated on a highway that is attacked almost every hour by enemy FPV drones. Some cover their license plates, but the traffic police stop them and demand that they remove the stickers.

Mash claims that the traffic police are sympathetic and that given the drone situation, "speeding can be considered as committed in a state of extreme necessity." But those who receive a speeding ticket will have to challenge it in court on these grounds.

Mash claims that the traffic police are sympathetic and that given the drone situation, "speeding can be considered as committed in a state of extreme necessity." But those who receive a speeding ticket will have to challenge it in court on these grounds.

The attack drones at issue here are widely used even some distance beyond the current front lines. Russian milbloggers, for instance, have claimed for more than a week that Ukrainian drones are attacking supply vehicles on the important E38 highway through Kursk, and they have published photos of burning vehicles along the route. (The E38 is significantly to the north of known Ukrainian positions.)
So Russians are understandably in something of a hurry when on roads like this. But the traffic cameras don't care—and neither, apparently, do the traffic police, who keep the cameras running.

Estonian X account "WarTranslated" provides English translations of Russian Telegram posts related to the Ukraine war, and the traffic cam issue has come up multiple times. According to one local Russian commentator, "In frontline areas, they continue to collect fines for violating traffic rules... For example, drivers exceed the speed limit in order to get away from the drone, or drive quickly through a dangerous place; the state regularly collects fines for this."

Another Russian complains, "The fact is that in the Kursk region, surveillance cameras that monitor speeding continue to operate. There are frequent cases when fighters are fined when they run away from enemy FPV drones. Papering over license plates on cars does not help, either. For example, a guy from the People's Militia of the city of Kurchatov was sent to 15 days of arrest because of a taped-over license plate."

Fortunately, there's an easy way to end the drone danger in Kursk.

I wonder how this is going to escalate.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Latvia to hand over 20 confiscated vehicles to Ukraine for military needs

The Latvian government has decided to donate 20 vehicles to Ukraine that were previously confiscated from drivers caught driving under the influence of alcohol, citing Delfi.

The donated vehicles will be distributed across various military units of the Ukrainian National Guard and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Recipients also include medical institutions and administrative bodies in different regions of Ukraine, such as the hospital in Dolynska, Kalush district, Ivano-Frankivsk region, and the primary healthcare center in Pisochyn, Kharkiv region.

The total market value of the donated vehicles is €117,640.

Since mid-February, Latvia has enacted a law allowing the confiscation of vehicles with Russian license plates. These confiscated vehicles will be sent to Ukraine.

Previously, Latvia had already sent vehicles to Ukraine that were confiscated from drivers caught driving under the influence. In total, Riga has donated over 270 such vehicles, with their combined value estimated at nearly €1 million by mid-December 2023.

Lithuania is planning to introduce a similar measure. The head of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defense, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, stated that Russians had until mid-March to remove their vehicles from the country.