My dire prediction...

Ted C · Post by **Ted C** » 2003-04-11 03:13pm

Now that Saddam Hussein's government has been ousted from Iraq, the Bush administration will quickly find someone of Iraqi origin who will be friendly to the US and help them establish control.

American interest will then wander elsewhere. The new government in Iraq will become tyrannical in its own way; better than Saddam perhaps, but still essentially an oppressive dictatorship.

I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't see how I can trust Bush to handle this situation so that a real democracy emerges in Iraq. Once it's stable enough to get the oil flowing again, I think the American funding will drop to a trickle.

I wish I thought the UN or some other organization could do better.

On a side note, I notice that Syria and Jordan are loudly proclaiming that it's already time for the Americans to bug out of Iraq. No surprise there; I'm sure they've got loyal government paramilitaries of their own who are eager to fill the power vacuum in Iraq.

Am I too frickin' cynical today?

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-04-11 04:02pm

I agree with you. Winning the war is one thing. Winning the peace is another.

Let's hope that Bush and Co know what they're doing.

The Nice Guy

Enricko · Post by **Enricko** » 2003-04-11 08:29pm

I'm not an expert (but damn it's fun to make unfounded predictions!

), but I think Bush will place someone like the Chah of Iran at the head of Iraq. The Islamists will get angrier, another islamic revolution, another hostage crisis, etc.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2003-04-11 09:13pm

There are already two functional democratic governments in the north - We'd have to destroy them to install an autocrat like the Shah. It would be easier, really, to try for democracy. Anything less and the Kurds would try to break away, since what they've got is the real thing already.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2003-04-11 11:57pm

yes, what we'd best do is occupy Iraq for the next 5-10 years with UN people doing most of the work but with definite US and UK presences. During that time we set up a democratically elected government with a totally new structure, perhaps similar to the American or British systems. after 10 years we pull the vast majority of our forces out of Iraq but maintain a presence in the region, perhaps an airbase or two, like we did with Japan after the war.

We also have to make Iraq a truly modern nation, get everyone electricity and running water guaranteed, unless they live out in the boonies. We have to market to the population, build up power plants and civilian infrastructure, provide jobs, build industry..

This has to be BIG. We've commited to something more then just "get rid of saddam and get out", we've commited to a total reconstruction of the Iraqi civilisation and culture.

Rubberanvil · Post by **Rubberanvil** » 2003-04-12 12:24am

kojikun wrote:yes, what we'd best do is occupy Iraq for the next 5-10 years with UN people doing most of the work but with definite US and UK presences. During that time we set up a democratically elected government with a totally new structure, perhaps similar to the American or British systems. after 10 years we pull the vast majority of our forces out of Iraq but maintain a presence in the region, perhaps an airbase or two, like we did with Japan after the war.

Problem is everybody hostile toward US and UK's is going to be on their ass every single minute until either Iraq is completely rebuilt or the US and UK say "ah f--k this s--t" and withdraws from there.

Post by **Coyote** » 2003-04-12 02:28am

Oddly enough, as much as I loathe and despise Chirac, this is why I think it would be good to have someone like the French gendarmes or the German Polizei train the new police force. It would still be done along Western models but it could not be said that we are installing US puppets.

Plus it would stop them from whining and kvetching. And the Arab world would prefer to see "friendly" Euros rather than Yanks of dubious intent.

I think US military restructuring would be preferred, or UK/Commonwealth professionalism.

And Iraq has so many interest groups and tribal factions, a Parliamentary democracy would be better than trying ot set up a two-party system.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2003-04-12 02:53am

And Iraq has so many interest groups and tribal factions, a Parliamentary democracy would be better than trying ot set up a two-party system.

No, it wouldn't. Confederate Constitution is best. *grins* Minus the parts on slavery, sure, but it still makes a great model for Iraq. The real problem we're going to have is in redrawing the provincial borders to reflect the situation on ground as opposed to what Saddam wanted, and then building up a state infrastructure for each new one.

That said, I'd let the Spaniards train their police force and paramilitaries.

Post by **The Yosemite Bear** » 2003-04-12 04:13am

Whose the new Boss same as the old boss.

Sounds just like the 1950's and a certain asshole we installed in Iran.