Hypothetical Korea Scenario

EmperorSolo51 · Post by **EmperorSolo51** » 2003-05-21 06:32pm

During the past few months/years the North Korean military has been playing a dangerous game in Est Asia regarding thier Nuclear Weapons program and thier ballistic missile program. Durring the 1990's they launched a test missile over the Sea of Japan and the Japanese Home Islands and splashed down in the pacific. That alarmed the Japanese so much that they began to formulate war plans against North Korea. The hightened state of alert in Japan regarding North Korea was elevated when it was revealed that North Koreas was in fact continuing to develope Nuclear weapons, in breach of the treaty with the Clinton administration. A few short months ago it was announched during a meating in Peking, that North Korea had 2 nuclear weapons and hinted taht more were on the way. Prime Minister Koizumi of Japan hinted that Japan could use military force to take out North Korea's nuclear weapons facilities should North Korea continue to threaten East Asia and Japan.

Now what if some months from now, talks with North Korea fail and Japan is forced to launched a bombing raid similar to what Israel did in 1988. How would North Korea respond? What would be the reaction from the United States and the UN and South Korea?

The Albino Raven · Post by **The Albino Raven** » 2003-05-21 06:50pm

North Korea would retaliate, but not with nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Il is crazy, but not stupid. If he were to launch nukes, it would not be at Japan, where the fallout would damage NK millitary facilites, and possibly threaten he himself.

Shinova · Post by **Shinova** » 2003-05-21 06:57pm

Fremen_Muhadib wrote:North Korea would retaliate, but not with nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Il is crazy, but not stupid. If he were to launch nukes, it would not be at Japan, where the fallout would damage NK millitary facilites, and possibly threaten he himself.

Or he really could be that stupid and start launching nukes at SK and Japan.

PrinceofLowLight · Post by **PrinceofLowLight** » 2003-05-21 07:29pm

Fremen_Muhadib wrote:North Korea would retaliate, but not with nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Il is crazy, but not stupid. If he were to launch nukes, it would not be at Japan, where the fallout would damage NK millitary facilites, and possibly threaten he himself.

I think you're underestimating just how crazy he is. This is the guy who has schools teach kids songs about how he makes the sunrise. That kind of hubris combined with the fact that he's basically broken a plan-words treaty with the most powerful force in the world and has yet to be punished can only confirm delusions of godhood.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-05-21 09:21pm

The Japanese are very ill equipped to launch such a strike, they never would try. In addition the problem is that while we know where the north's reactor is, it is active. So blowing it up with spread heavy long term fallout over South Korea and Japan. We also know they already have the material for a half dozen bombs, and there's no way to be sure of locating it, and even direct bomb hits wouldn't destroy it.

Israel on the other hand struck before Iraq's reactor had ever been critical.

The North could hit back with conventional or biochemical missiles against Japan and or the South, along with the same but from tube and rocket artillery. The probably reply would be some missiles against Japan and artillery fire aginst US troops in the south at the least.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-05-21 09:26pm

If we ever got into a situation where a North Korean nuclear attack seemed imminent, do you think it would be best to glass Pyongyang before they could strike?

Setzer · Post by **Setzer** » 2003-05-23 02:08pm

BTW, does anyone know the words to "Long haul for army based leadership" or whatever the song was?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-05-23 03:25pm

HemlockGrey wrote:If we ever got into a situation where a North Korean nuclear attack seemed imminent, do you think it would be best to glass Pyongyang before they could strike?

Given that it would accomplish absolutely except giving them an excuse to use biochemical weapons, no. Any preemptive strike would probably have to involve dozens if not hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons, mostly with ground or earth penetrating bursts against there vast array of hardened missile and gun positions and various piece of defence infrastructure. They started digging in 1950 and haven't stopped, and much of the North is made of granite.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-05-23 03:32pm

Well, ok, what I meant was, should worst come to worst, would it be best to wipe them out before they attacked SK and Japan?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-05-23 03:38pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Well, ok, what I meant was, should worst come to worst, would it be best to wipe them out before they attacked SK and Japan?

Yes, the damage such an attack could cause to South and Japans economies and populations would be massive, and the ripple effect on the world would make 9/11 look like just another down day for the market.

However there insane paranoia level of security would make anticipating such an attack with solid information very difficult. It also doesn't help that there own military is deployed to its wartime positions. It's believed that the North could launch a full-scale invasion of the South on a single hours notice. Though there lack of fuel and food makes acutely conducting such an operation impossible now. However there artillery and missiles work just fine.

NapoleonGH · Post by **NapoleonGH** » 2003-05-23 05:13pm

just remember that if japan is nuked, the radiation will not hit NK, the jetstream takes care of that taking the air and making it go east of japan towards the pacific

Newtonian Fury · Post by **Newtonian Fury** » 2003-05-24 12:07am

PrinceofLowLight wrote:I think you're underestimating just how crazy he is. This is the guy who has schools teach kids songs about how he makes the sunrise.

Not a sign of craziness. Other communist leaders, like Mao, had songs dedicated to them with about the same magnitude of sycophantic fawning. I can still sing a couple of them to ya even though they're not my generation... Anyway, the past leaders were not crazy, and I doubt Kim Jong-Il is either. He's developing near-mindless devotion to maintain his power. It's actually effective on the hungry masses.

PrinceofLowLight · Post by **PrinceofLowLight** » 2003-05-24 01:51am

Newtonian Fury wrote:
PrinceofLowLight wrote:I think you're underestimating just how crazy he is. This is the guy who has schools teach kids songs about how he makes the sunrise.
Not a sign of craziness. Other communist leaders, like Mao, had songs dedicated to them with about the same magnitude of sycophantic fawning. I can still sing a couple of them to ya even though they're not my generation... Anyway, the past leaders were not crazy, and I doubt Kim Jong-Il is either. He's developing near-mindless devotion to maintain his power. It's actually effective on the hungry masses.

Well, I can't say I'd do differently in his position. But my point was that eventually, after enough of this, it really could go to your head.

Also thought this would be appropriate to post here...http://www.livejournal.com/users/kim_jong_il__/