I've been looking over the primary election number and I don't see the Democratic base being as energized as it might be, even considering that voter turnout in primaries is notoroiusly low. The only exception to this was New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The only reason I still gave Arizona, Wisconsin, and Oregon to Bush is because he is the incumbant and I cannot see Kerry overcoming that disadvantage in those states.
Kerry loses Florida along with any chance of the southern states since he will be percieved as a New England liberal and because Bush has successfully pandered to the bible thumpers .
NJ is the only state I can see myself as being easily wrong on. It all depends on voter turnout. But based on what I've seen so far, NJ goes Republican for the first time since 1988.
I might give Kerry a couple more states, but this is pretty close to how I think things will end up going down.
BoTM / JL / MM / HAB / VRWC / Horseman
I'm studying for the CPA exam. Have a nice summer, and if you're down just sit back and realize that Joe is off somewhere, doing much worse than you are.
Considering how close the Bush vs. Gore election was, and all the advantages Kerry has in 2004 over Gore in 2000, I don't see how you could possibly come up with that map.
The Kernel wrote:Considering how close the Bush vs. Gore election was, and all the advantages Kerry has in 2004 over Gore in 2000, I don't see how you could possibly come up with that map.
Don't some polls already have Kerry beating Bush in a run-off election? That is a strong indicator in favor of Kerry winning since Bush is the incumbent.
Remember Dole running against Clinton in '96 - at this point in '96 Dole was nowhere close to beating Clinton in a strait run-off and was not doing nearly as well as Kerry was doing in the primaries. Kerry is going to be a strong challenger to Bush.
Kerry is going to get Pennsylvannia due to much of the voting power of the state being centered about Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, both of which are overwhelmingly democrat. While much of the state is conservative, much of the state is also not very populated and not enough of the other large towns (like Erie, Scranton, Harrisburg) are conservative enough to fight Pittsburgh/Philadelphia. We own PA like New York City owns the rest of New York.
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Bertie Wooster wrote:Don't some polls already have Kerry beating Bush in a run-off election? That is a strong indicator in favor of Kerry winning since Bush is the incumbent.
Not really, keep in mind that the news has predomately been on the Democratic Primary for the last month or so. The focus has been on Kerry and the Democrates for the a while so its not unexepected that polls show Kerry up some at this point.
Bush should start racheting up his campaign here shortley now that there is a 'front runner' for the Dems. Once both campaigns start kicking in, then you'll have a better picture of how it will go down.
They say, "the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots." I suppose it never occurred to them that they are the tyrants, not the patriots. Those weapons are not being used to fight some kind of tyranny; they are bringing them to an event where people are getting together to talk. -Mike Wong
But as far as board culture in general, I do think that young male overaggression is a contributing factor to the general atmosphere of hostility. It's not SOS and the Mess throwing hand grenades all over the forum- Red
I've been looking over the primary election number and I don't see the Democratic base being as energized as it might be, even considering that voter turnout in primaries is notoroiusly low. The only exception to this was New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The only reason I still gave Arizona, Wisconsin, and Oregon to Bush is because he is the incumbant and I cannot see Kerry overcoming that disadvantage in those states.
Kerry loses Florida along with any chance of the southern states since he will be percieved as a New England liberal and because Bush has successfully pandered to the bible thumpers .
NJ is the only state I can see myself as being easily wrong on. It all depends on voter turnout. But based on what I've seen so far, NJ goes Republican for the first time since 1988.
I suspect that he'll do a bit better in the New England states than is seen here. He'll pick up PA and we'll give him NJ as well. Also, Oregon is pretty liberal, so I can see it going to Kerry.
With that, I see the delegates being:
Bush: 298 - 55%
Kerry: 240 - 45%
If we assume Wisconsin goes to Kerry too, then the numbers become like so:
Bush: 287 - 53%
Kerry: 251 - 47%
It won't be quite the runaway that 63% to 37% is.
The popular vote would probably break down as follows:
Bush: 51%
Kerry: 48%
Nader: <1%
Which is to say that it's probably going to be fairly close. Any other bets on how the popular vote is going to look?
Nader, I don't even know if Nader will even get 1 percent this time around.
BoTM / JL / MM / HAB / VRWC / Horseman
I'm studying for the CPA exam. Have a nice summer, and if you're down just sit back and realize that Joe is off somewhere, doing much worse than you are.
I don't think Bush has a shot in hell in New Jersey, personally.
Any city gets what it admires, will pay for, and, ultimately, deserves…We want and deserve tin-can architecture in a tinhorn culture. And we will probably be judged not by the monuments we build but by those we have destroyed.--Ada Louise Huxtable, "Farewell to Penn Station", New York Times editorial, 30 October 1963 X-Ray Blues
The Kernel wrote:Considering how close the Bush vs. Gore election was, and all the advantages Kerry has in 2004 over Gore in 2000, I don't see how you could possibly come up with that map.
Bush is an incumbent this time around, which is almost always a huge advantage
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— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
I think it will be close... but WV stays a Red state..
After actual observation of the political climate in this state, I beleive I can say more than six percent shifted. Sorry to burst the bubble of your assumptions.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.
Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.
After actual observation of the political climate in this state, I beleive I can say more than six percent shifted. Sorry to burst the bubble of your assumptions
and those observations come from?? and what are you basising this on if ya don''t mind...
Sudden power is apt to be insolent, sudden liberty saucy; that behaves best which has grown gradually.
All Bush has to do is keep reminding Christians that he's the candidate of Jesus while Kerry is the candidate of liberals, secularism, and anti-war demonstrators, and he'll probably win.
"It's not evil for God to do it. Or for someone to do it at God's command."- Jonathan Boyd on baby-killing
"you guys are fascinated with the use of those "rules of logic" to the extent that you don't really want to discussus anything."- GC
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Ohio is always important. That's what most Presidential elections come down to.
BoTM / JL / MM / HAB / VRWC / Horseman
I'm studying for the CPA exam. Have a nice summer, and if you're down just sit back and realize that Joe is off somewhere, doing much worse than you are.
After actual observation of the political climate in this state, I beleive I can say more than six percent shifted. Sorry to burst the bubble of your assumptions
and those observations come from?? and what are you basising this on if ya don''t mind...
Most of the observations are from the local newspapers(Both mainstream and the odd Left publication), and from the one man every WVer will always follow, Byrd. The war was not popular here, and with the local economy, if the Democrats do make an issue of it, this state will shift by the needed amounts.
Bush is commonly portrayed as a nitwit who got large chunks of the population to run off to some place no WVer has ever seen, fight a bunch of people over things he can't prove, and all the time the local economy continues to die off. This is a recipe for a six-percent-plus shift, IMHO. If your projection was based just off a WVers reaction to Gore four years ago, I'm gonna have to say I trust mine more.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.
Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.
theski wrote:and even bigger will be OHIO... and maybe just maybe Cal is in play
You are fucking insane if you think Bush can win California. NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.
Yes. Any Republican who points out that there's a Republican in Sacramento (and by extension suggests that Bush has more than a snowball's chance in California,) would do well to remember that a big part of what got the Governator elected was his force of personality and his notoriety. And they'd also do well to remember that he's not the same sort of conservative that Bush is.
The Kernel wrote:
theski wrote:
and even bigger will be OHIO... and maybe just maybe Cal is in play
You are fucking insane if you think Bush can win California. NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.
Yes. Any Republican who points out that there's a Republican in Sacramento (and by extension suggests that Bush has more than a snowball's chance in California,) would do well to remember that a big part of what got the Governator elected was his force of personality and his notoriety. And they'd also do well to remember that he's not the same sort of conservative that Bush is.
I said IN PLAY I think it will be closer than you guys think...IMHO
Sudden power is apt to be insolent, sudden liberty saucy; that behaves best which has grown gradually.
