CIA: EU will break-up by 2020

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2005-01-20 01:15pm

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

Bertie Wooster · Post by **Bertie Wooster** » 2005-01-20 01:33pm

What's the track record for the CIA's predictions?

Steven Snyder · Post by **Steven Snyder** » 2005-01-20 01:35pm

Bertie Wooster wrote:What's the track record for the CIA's predictions?

The CIA said you would say that.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2005-01-20 01:37pm

I think the 'Stargate' program suggests there's nothing to fear...

My ability to take this seriously is undermined by their mention of the 'Next technological revolution of nano, bio, information, and materials technology'.

Chmee · Post by **Chmee** » 2005-01-20 01:44pm

Douglas MacEachin, released a report entitled `The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA.' In this report he outlines what he regards as some of the major known failures of the intelligence community. He attributes these failures to analysis which rested on faulty assumptions--he called these assumptions `linchpins.' In the report he states:

A review of the record of famous wrong forecasts nearly always reveals at least one `linchpin' that did not hold up: the Soviets will not invade Czechoslovakia because they will not want to pay the political costs, especially after having signed the Rejkavik Declaration the previous year; the Soviets will not invade Afghanistan because they do not want to sink SALT-II which at that moment is being debated by the U.S. Senate; Saddam Hussein needs about two years to refurbish his military forces after the debilitating war with Iran and, therefore, will not, despite evidence of motives for doing so, invade Kuwait in the foreseeable future.

He concludes, `In each case, the sin was less in the fact that the linchpins did not hold than in the failure of the intelligence products to highlight the extent to which they were assumptions.' Surely intelligence products could benefit from highlighting assumptions. However, a more rigorous scrutiny provided by greater openness would give an opportunity for facts, assumptions, and conclusions to be challenged.

Link

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 01:49pm

SirNitram wrote:I think the 'Stargate' program suggests there's nothing to fear...

My ability to take this seriously is undermined by their mention of the 'Next technological revolution of nano, bio, information, and materials technology'.

Why?

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2005-01-20 01:53pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
SirNitram wrote:I think the 'Stargate' program suggests there's nothing to fear...

My ability to take this seriously is undermined by their mention of the 'Next technological revolution of nano, bio, information, and materials technology'.
Why?

Somewhere after the descriptions of Future Warrior 2020 being able to metamorph his business suit into a full-body suit of armour that completely cancels out automatic weapons fire hitting him, and other such comic-booky nonsense regarding nanotech, I lost all ability to give credibility to anything the US government says near the word 'Nanotech'.

That being said, if the EU pins it's hopes on nanotech in similar ways, they could suffer a serious blow.

Chmee · Post by **Chmee** » 2005-01-20 01:57pm

I think it's probably a good idea for anybody to put too much stock in predictions about what the 'next revolution' will be ... I mean, if it's really a revolution, will people see it coming?

That being said, there's certainly reason to believe that technologies or products could emerge out of nano and materials science that will affect the global economy as fundamentally as information technology affected it in the last twenty years.

Get back to me when my personal nano-assembler is ready.

AMX · Post by **AMX** » 2005-01-20 02:01pm

Well... I can only speak for one rather smallish coutry... but our "ailing welfare system" is continously reformed, net benefits shrinking every single year, retirement ages were raised just last year and are expected to rise again soon - then we had a bureaucracy-cutting measure in health insurance, an adjustment in charges in favor of cheaper medication... all kinds of charges added to pretty much anything ... the last actual increase I remember (not counting election pledges that were not fulfilled, or disbanded shortly after implementation) was an "investment-type" thing to raise birth rates...
I think someone is underestimating our politicians' ability to do cuts without making a lot of fuss about it (except, of course, in election years, when they do make a lot of fuss about the cuts the others will make, then do exactly the same themselves).

We've got kick-ass politicians, here. They're assholes with a predilection for kicking their own voters in the ass, but kick-ass politicians.
Except for our education minister. That's a groundschool teacher who doesn't know anything about politics, or running a university, or anything else that matters.

SirNitram wrote:Somewhere after the descriptions of Future Warrior 2020 being able to metamorph his business suit into a full-body suit of armour that completely cancels out automatic weapons fire hitting him, and other such comic-booky nonsense regarding nanotech, I lost all ability to give credibility to anything the US government says near the word 'Nanotech'.

Is that in any way related to the idea of soldiers in chameleon-suits with handgun-sized weapons firing guided missiles at full-auto?

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 02:12pm

SirNitram wrote:

Somewhere after the descriptions of Future Warrior 2020 being able to metamorph his business suit into a full-body suit of armour that completely cancels out automatic weapons fire hitting him, and other such comic-booky nonsense regarding nanotech, I lost all ability to give credibility to anything the US government says near the word 'Nanotech'.

That being said, if the EU pins it's hopes on nanotech in similar ways, they could suffer a serious blow.

Forget that bullshit. Nanotechnology, biotechnology and IT are merging and it is hailed as the biggest revolution in technology after the digital age, but don't let that trip you into tagging this Future Warrior and similar wishful thinking concepts into the same group. I assure you, the revolutions I speak of are very real. This US Army GI of the future able to take on whole nations, is not.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2005-01-20 02:15pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Forget that bullshit. Nanotechnology, biotechnology and IT are merging and it is hailed as the biggest revolution in technology after the digital age, but don't let that trip you into tagging this Future Warrior and similar wishful thinking concepts into the same group. I assure you, the revolutions I speak of are very real. This US Army GI of the future able to take on whole nations, is not.

I'm going to remain skeptical. Frankly, given the widespread belief of the sci-fi wankery of nanotech, it's too easy to see a nanotech 'bubble' that makes the 90s seem sane.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 02:20pm

SirNitram wrote:
I'm going to remain skeptical. Frankly, given the widespread belief of the sci-fi wankery of nanotech, it's too easy to see a nanotech 'bubble' that makes the 90s seem sane.

Provided you let the scientists dictate what can and cannot be done and not the PR spinsters, I don't see a problem. In my own studies I have gone through entire papers that mention new advances in DNA mapping thanks to nanoscale manufacturing, or in vivo sensor suites made by micro- and nanotechnology to the point that that microscale German sub floating through veins is the tip of the iceberg. Biotech has already merged with IT to an amazing extent (the fact that a whole new concept, bioinformatics, exists for it is testament to that). The future, as I see it, will make use of very tiny stuff.

But a good way to gauge how serious some are is to see what they think of the T-1000, Shadow Planet Killer and Drexler's original Engines Of Creation and then note their reactions when reading Mike's nanotech myths essay.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2005-01-20 02:23pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
SirNitram wrote:
I'm going to remain skeptical. Frankly, given the widespread belief of the sci-fi wankery of nanotech, it's too easy to see a nanotech 'bubble' that makes the 90s seem sane.
Provided you let the scientists dictate what can and cannot be done and not the PR spinsters, I don't see a problem.

You're so cute, I wish I could take you home with me!

Seriously, who actually secures funding in this day and age? It isn't the scientists. The comparison to the 90s Internet Bubble isn't for show. I know there's legitimate breakthroughs waiting for nanotech.. And I'll be proud when they hit. But it's pretty naive to think that there won't be fallout to the widespread belief in the nonsense being peddled.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2005-01-20 02:29pm

Incidentally, while the report may be alarmist, the EU is going to be facing some serious demographic problems in the very near future. The birthrates in the most developed countries are well below replacement levels, especially in countries like Spain, and their already-elderly population isn't getting any younger.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 02:31pm

SirNitram wrote: You're so cute, I wish I could take you home with me!

Only your missus may be allowed that honour, sir.

Seriously, who actually secures funding in this day and age? It isn't the scientists. The comparison to the 90s Internet Bubble isn't for show. I know there's legitimate breakthroughs waiting for nanotech.. And I'll be proud when they hit. But it's pretty naive to think that there won't be fallout to the widespread belief in the nonsense being peddled.

Well, naturally, and given what I said there, it is somewhat inaccurate. There are scientists who care only for funding and forget that the baloney they proposed is just that; baloney. But they are usually found out and either mocked openly or denied funding since they failed to deliver the goods. A real scientist will take control and make sure that what he sets out to achieve is at least doable since some, as evidenced by sci-fi nanotech wankfest lovers, can't differentiate between fiction and reality *cough*DoD*cough*.

dragon · Post by **dragon** » 2005-01-20 02:31pm

Here you go the top ten nanotech products of 2003 as reported by Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2003/1 ... apbox.html

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2005-01-20 02:34pm

dragon wrote:Here you go the top ten nanotech products of 2003 as reported by Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2003/1 ... apbox.html

Number six...

DVD's of 'The Hulk', 'Spiderman', and 'Minority Report'.

Oh yea. My faith in nanotechnology is fucking soaring knowing that Forbes links 'The Hulk' to the coming nanotech revolution.

dragon · Post by **dragon** » 2005-01-20 02:36pm

Oh and as to the topic at hand maybe the CIA would like to explain why the Euro is worth more than the dollar and why the economic forcast for Europe is alot better than the US

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 02:44pm

Master of Ossus wrote:Incidentally, while the report may be alarmist, the EU is going to be facing some serious demographic problems in the very near future. The birthrates in the most developed countries are well below replacement levels, especially in countries like Spain, and their already-elderly population isn't getting any younger.

I put this question to a UKIP MEP before Xmas and he said that the chances of a reform are quite slim because the bureacracy in the EU is mind numbingly bad. Although, despite being anti-EU, he didn't say this would mean certain doom for the superstate. He expected that the social and welfare projects that drain so much money may be sorted out sometime when they wake up to the consequences. Germany and Italy have defaulted at least once with debts in the EU and haven't met requirements for GDP contributions to the EU since the start, IIRC. The irony in these places criticising the likes of the UK and new members is palpable.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2005-01-20 03:38pm

dragon wrote:Oh and as to the topic at hand maybe the CIA would like to explain why the Euro is worth more than the dollar

Because the US is attempting to lower its trade deficit, and has taken on a number of policies in an effort to deflate the dollar against foreign currencies.

and why the economic forcast for Europe is alot better than the US

Is it? The US had a growth in real GDP last year of 4%, and has averaged well over 3% for the last decade. What's the EU's annual growth rate in real GDP? About 2.4%. How can you possibly claim that the economic forecast in Europe is "alot better than the US?"

Dahak · Post by **Dahak** » 2005-01-20 04:14pm

AMX wrote:Well... I can only speak for one rather smallish coutry... but our "ailing welfare system" is continously reformed,

Which are no real reforms, but little itsy-bitsy pieces to keep the old system walking a bit longer. There has not been a major reform or breakthrough.

net benefits shrinking every single year, retirement ages were raised just last year and are expected to rise again soon

Which doesn't mean a thing if the actual age people really retire isn't going to soar.

- then we had a bureaucracy-cutting measure in health insurance, an adjustment in charges in favor of cheaper medication...

Which don't work out at all. The insurance rates are not going down, as was hoped. The "bureaucracy-cutting measure" didn't cut any bureaucracy. Maybe even added some.

all kinds of charges added to pretty much anything ... the last actual increase I remember (not counting election pledges that were not fulfilled, or disbanded shortly after implementation) was an "investment-type" thing to raise birth rates...
I think someone is underestimating our politicians' ability to do cuts without making a lot of fuss about it (except, of course, in election years, when they do make a lot of fuss about the cuts the others will make, then do exactly the same themselves).

In Germany, every year is election year, as there is an election almost any month somewhere in the republic. And someone will scream and rant if they do things which could alter their chances of election.
Doing cuts means that hundreds of pressure groups and lobbyists crawl out from the woodworks and start screaming.

We've got kick-ass politicians, here. They're assholes with a predilection for kicking their own voters in the ass, but kick-ass politicians.
Except for our education minister. That's a groundschool teacher who doesn't know anything about politics, or running a university, or anything else that matters.

Like...who?

Post by **LadyTevar** » 2005-01-20 04:18pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
SirNitram wrote: You're so cute, I wish I could take you home with me!
Only your missus may be allowed that honour, sir.

And I don't think you'll fit on the mantle next to the unicorns. Sorry, Val.

ISn't the CIA the one that said the USSR wasn't collapsing?

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2005-01-20 04:55pm

SirNitram wrote:Somewhere after the descriptions of Future Warrior 2020 being able to metamorph his business suit into a full-body suit of armour that completely cancels out automatic weapons fire hitting him, and other such comic-booky nonsense regarding nanotech, I lost all ability to give credibility to anything the US government says near the word 'Nanotech'.

That being said, if the EU pins it's hopes on nanotech in similar ways, they could suffer a serious blow.

Because the analysis departments of the CIA have what to do with hypothetical and not even remotely planned long-term DARPA plans how, again?

The words gross overgeneralization come to mind.

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2005-01-20 04:57pm

LadyTevar wrote:ISn't the CIA the one that said the USSR wasn't collapsing?

No, the CIA knew it was collapsing. Then the proto-neocons like Rummy and Co. back then took the reigns and bullshitted their way through hundreds of billions in lucrative defense contracts (surprise).

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2005-01-20 05:04pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:
No, the CIA knew it was collapsing. Then the proto-neocons like Rummy and Co. back then took the reigns and bullshitted their way through hundreds of billions in lucrative defense contracts (surprise).

The CIA did their fair of bullshitting as the USSR fell, though they didn't run on the mistaken assumption that the US had defeated the evil empire, rather than internal and inevitable turmoil breaking it apart instead.