WSJ on 1,700 XBOX 360 parts and assembly.

GEC: Discuss gaming, computers and electronics and venture into the bizarre world of STGODs.

Moderator: Thanas

User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Anecdotal evidence is the best evidence. But seriously, we could do with sources for some of these claims. Your word versus his is never a real appealing debate tactic. For instance, I have also heard MS has no hope in hell of supplying most of the pre-orders in England with major retailers this side of the New Year, letalone the rest of the UK or Europe.
Oh, you'll get that data just from browsing Ars Technia or a few market stories; the shortage is very real. Of course, Slashdot's been talking about a revealed agreement in Norway demanding the store supplied only sell bundles, and must sell out by December.

I can try and find a copy of one of Amazon's letters to the pre-order folks. It has the identical dates I listed.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

And more interestingly about the shortage debate is that Microsoft still intends to sell 3 million consoles within 90 days:
The Register wrote:Microsoft hopes to sell up to 3m Xbox 360 consoles by the end of February 2006 - three months after the next-generation machine machine debuts in the US in two weeks' time.

The 360 arrives in the US on Tuesday, 22 November, and the UK and Europe on Friday, 2 December. Japanese consumers will be able to get their hands on the console on Sunday, 10 December.
Click Here

Together, Microsoft hopes, they will all buy 2.75-3m units in the 360's first 90 days, Bryan Lee, the Xbox division's CFO, said at an analyst conference in New York yesterday.

"I'm very proud to announce that we think through the first 90 days of launch... We expect to have sold 2.75-3m consoles worldwide," he said.

Add together the consoles, the accessories, the Xbox Live subscriptions and, crucially, the software, and the overall revenue accrued from the 360's launch period will be "well over" $1.5bn, Lee forecast.

"I can't think of many other, if any other, products that have had an initial launch that have sold $1.5bn to consumers in their first 90 days," he said.

Microsoft has said it expects to sell 4.5-5.5m Xbox 360 consoles during its current fiscal year, which comes to a close on 30 June 2006. ®
Not much of a shortage here.
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:And more interestingly about the shortage debate is that Microsoft still intends to sell 3 million consoles within 90 days:

Not much of a shortage here.
Then why does CNN disagree?
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Getting your hands on one of this holiday season's hottest gifts might be even harder than you think – and it might get even more expensive.

While Microsoft has still not given precise shipment numbers for the Xbox 360, two sector analysts say the numbers seem to be slipping. That could lead to even higher priced game sets in a market that already seems to be on the verge of price gouging.

Wall Street has been expecting Microsoft to deliver more than 2 million of its next generation consoles to retailers worldwide this year. On Monday, though, P. J. McNealy of American Technology Research lowered his expectations to the 1.8 million – 2 million range. Friday, Banc of America's Gary Cooper said he believes the company will ship just 1.4 million – 1.6 million.

There was never any question that the first 'next generation' video game machine would sell out this holiday season. A cocktail blend of enthusiastic players and Santa's helpers virtually guarantee that demand for the machines will outstrip supply. It happens with every major holiday gaming hardware launch. (Skeptical? Think back to last year's desperate hunt for a Nintendo DS.)

Complicating matters is Microsoft's plan for a worldwide launch of the 360. That means those initial shipments, whatever they turn out to be, will be split between North America, Europe and Japan. McNealy said he expects Microsoft to send roughly 900,000 to 1 million units to North American retailers, 600,000-800,000 to Europe and another 100,000-200,000 to Japan.

Cooper's prediction is more dire, saying there will only be between 300,000 and 350,000 units available in the U.S. on Nov. 22, when the system launches. (Cooper, in a note, said he expects two shipments from Microsoft (Research) this year – one before launch and another in December.)

"Concerns about shortages, parts problems and other associated inventory qualms are typical of any console hardware transition," wrote McNealy.

Microsoft representatives were not immediately available for comment.

The expected shortages could prove beneficial to entrepreneurs and select retailers. Officially, there are two price points for the Xbox 360: $299 and $399 (one bare bones and one tricked out). And while you might be able to buy just the machine if you're willing to camp out at your local Wal-Mart (Research) or Best Buy (Research) the night before they go on sale, many retailers are only selling their allotted units in outrageously expensive bundles.

GameStop (Research), for example, offers five different pre-order packages for would-be owners of the machine, ranging in price from $700 to $4,500. That $4,500 bundle, for those of you gasping for air, includes (among other things) 20 games, three extra wireless controllers and a 42-inch plasma TV.

It's eBay (Research) where I suspect the real fortunes will be made, though. Already, those lucky enough to receive early accessories for the system have been making tidy profits from selling that merchandise to enthusiasts. The faceplate given out at the E3 press conference, for example, has fetched as much as $306.99 – more than the basic version of the machine itself.

How far will bid prices go for an actual Xbox 360? It's anyone's guess. But if you're planning to pad your bank account by flipping one, you'd better hurry. January will bring a new round of shipments and a likely drop-off in demand.
I'm obviously working on the resupply date; few places are gonna publish such, and blogs are relatively unreliable(Though I've seen lots of hits there on this, including Ars Technia referring to them about signs that this may be deliberate in places. Grain of salt, duh.).
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:Excuse me fuckhead, but my clarifications on your comments about the Xbox 1 were fully justiifed. You made it sound as if it was an imperative that the 360 make money after the Xbox loss even though Microsoft knew in 2001 that the Xbox would never break even.
A break from digging for a reliable source on info no store would want public to respond to this bit of tomfoolery:

The quote implied nothing of the sort, you lying, weasally little scumsucker. It's a straight up echo of the article; anything you read into it about the direness of the situation comes from your head not my words. Making mistakes with billions of capital is bad, so obviously they don't want to repeat it. Again, anything about the direness of it or having to make a profit is generated solely by your diseased excuse for a cortex.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: Then why does CNN disagree?
Read your own article:
Wall Street has been expecting Microsoft to deliver more than 2 million of its next generation consoles to retailers worldwide this year. On Monday, though, P. J. McNealy of American Technology Research lowered his expectations to the 1.8 million – 2 million range. Friday, Banc of America's Gary Cooper said he believes the company will ship just 1.4 million – 1.6 million.
Both fit with 3 million by Febuary figures. Not only that, but they show that any claims of shortages are more due to reallocation like Ars Technica suggests than anything else. That way Microsoft gets a perceieved shortage without having to sell dramatically less. Dishonest? Probably. But not a serious shortage, at least not for the US or Japan. Europe is probably getting screwed out of most of those missing units, but that's nothing new for them.

I'm obviously working on the resupply date; few places are gonna publish such, and blogs are relatively unreliable(Though I've seen lots of hits there on this, including Ars Technia referring to them about signs that this may be deliberate in places. Grain of salt, duh.).
Resupply dates won't tell you anything without numbers that are being resupplied and how many original units got retasked to places like WalMart.
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: A break from digging for a reliable source on info no store would want public to respond to this bit of tomfoolery:

The quote implied nothing of the sort, you lying, weasally little scumsucker. It's a straight up echo of the article; anything you read into it about the direness of the situation comes from your head not my words. Making mistakes with billions of capital is bad, so obviously they don't want to repeat it. Again, anything about the direness of it or having to make a profit is generated solely by your diseased excuse for a cortex.
Ahem...
Sir Nitram wrote:Throw on the mistakes that caused the X-Box to be 4B$ in the red since 2001, and alot is riding on getting this right.
The "mistakes" that caused the Xbox to be $4 billion in the red were self inflicted and known well ahead of time. They were accepted in order to reduce time to market. And the only conceivable avoidable one would have been a better deal with nVidia about GPU licensing, which is highly unlikely given that they didn't have an acceptable alternative availible on short notice.

In other words, they weren't "mistakes" and they have already been solved in the X360, something you would know already if you bothered to do any research. The ATI licensing deal and the hardware cost fixes both render the problems moot.

EDIT: In fact, by all indications Microsoft will be either breaking even or even making money on X360 hardware. Or hadn't you seen this data from Merril Lynch?
Xbox 360 Component Est. Cost at Launch Est. Cost after 3 Years
CPU IBM PPC $ 100 $ 35
GPU ATI GPU $ 100 $ 30
Optical Media DVD-ROM $ 25 $ 10
Memory 512MB GDDR3 $ 50 $ 25
HDD detachable 20GB HDD $ 25 $ 15
USB 3 ports $ 5 $ 3
Ethernet Ethernet $ 5 $ 4
Wi-Fi 802.11 a/b/g $ 5 $ 3
Controllers up to 4 wireless NA NA
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $ 25 $ 20
Total
$ 340 $ 145
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Then why does CNN disagree?
Read your own article:
I did. I assumed you were not promoting dishonesty and shell games. That, apparently, was the mistake.
Wall Street has been expecting Microsoft to deliver more than 2 million of its next generation consoles to retailers worldwide this year. On Monday, though, P. J. McNealy of American Technology Research lowered his expectations to the 1.8 million – 2 million range. Friday, Banc of America's Gary Cooper said he believes the company will ship just 1.4 million – 1.6 million.
Both fit with 3 million by Febuary figures. Not only that, but they show that any claims of shortages are more due to reallocation like Ars Technica suggests than anything else. That way Microsoft gets a perceieved shortage without having to sell dramatically less. Dishonest? Probably. But not a serious shortage, at least not for the US or Japan. Europe is probably getting screwed out of most of those missing units, but that's nothing new for them.
Never said the shortage was worldwide, shithead. Let's again look at what was really written since you've proven to hallucinate things in this thread..
Me, I'm just wondering what the hell is up with the shortage. Sure, you expect these things, but a drop from 1 million units to, I think, 150 thousand, is something of a ridiculous drop. Did one of the factories explode?
Wondering aloud, nothing more, and then commenting that it sounded like a dumb move. Now we know where it went. Wow, you answer my question.

What's fucking pathetic is you think this was defeating an argument I made; the only one I made is that your appeal to ignorance should be assumed as right.

I'm obviously working on the resupply date; few places are gonna publish such, and blogs are relatively unreliable(Though I've seen lots of hits there on this, including Ars Technia referring to them about signs that this may be deliberate in places. Grain of salt, duh.).
Resupply dates won't tell you anything without numbers that are being resupplied and how many original units got retasked to places like WalMart.
The following should be taken with salt, as it is a blog source, but..

Link
Last week, Gizmodo reported that Norwegian retailers are being allocated just 20 consoles each: 6 core editions and 14 premium editions. As a condition of this, each shop or chain has to sign an agreement stipulating that they must sell all 20 units on the 2nd December release date. In addition, retailers must agree to bundle at least two titles per console.
Kotaku scored some insider info on Target's launch plans. Again, allocation is an anorexic 25-50 units per store, and curiously, managers have been told to pre-print a large 'Sold Out' banner to be displayed when all consoles are gone. The conspiracy theory dictates that this is less of a service to inform customers waiting in line, and part of an evil plot to have every store across America proudly shouting "we have sold out of Xbox 360!"
Target's not Wal-Mart, but it is the same 'Big Box' retailer type. But only a few dozen?

Ars-Technia confirms this for Best Buy.

But it confirms Wal-Mart itself is getting a choice deal..
But there appears to be truth to the rumblings about lower-than-expected allocations of consoles. Reliable sources at some major retailers tell Ars Technica that they have been informed by Microsoft that they will be getting as few as one-third the number of Xbox 360s that they had planned for. The rest of those initial shipments are being diverted to the likes of Wal-Mart and Japan.
You'd not think most Wal-Mart shoppers could afford the thing.(Obligatory Redneck joke)

The Amazon letter, BTW...
Due to limited supply from Microsoft, we are unable to guarantee delivery of some Xbox 360 pre-orders for Christmas. Please also note that all pre-orders made on or after November 2nd, 2005 will have expected delivery dates in 2006. We are working with Microsoft to ensure the consoles are delivered as soon as they become available.
Play.com simply states they can't guarantee you'll get it by Christmas. Not a huge supplier, but.

So. Not all the most reliable sources, but two online suppliers confirming what I said. I guess it's more than anecdotal now, ain't it?
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:
SirNitram wrote: A break from digging for a reliable source on info no store would want public to respond to this bit of tomfoolery:

The quote implied nothing of the sort, you lying, weasally little scumsucker. It's a straight up echo of the article; anything you read into it about the direness of the situation comes from your head not my words. Making mistakes with billions of capital is bad, so obviously they don't want to repeat it. Again, anything about the direness of it or having to make a profit is generated solely by your diseased excuse for a cortex.
Ahem...
Sir Nitram wrote:Throw on the mistakes that caused the X-Box to be 4B$ in the red since 2001, and alot is riding on getting this right.
The "mistakes" that caused the Xbox to be $4 billion in the red were self inflicted and known well ahead of time. They were accepted in order to reduce time to market. And the only conceivable avoidable one would have been a better deal with nVidia about GPU licensing, which is highly unlikely given that they didn't have an acceptable alternative availible on short notice.
I'm just quoting the article on the mistakes.
In other words, they weren't "mistakes" and they have already been solved in the X360, something you would know already if you bothered to do any research. The ATI licensing deal and the hardware cost fixes both render the problems moot.
Good. Then the billions they'll be sinking into this won't be more than necessary.
EDIT: In fact, by all indications Microsoft will be either breaking even or even making money on X360 hardware. Or hadn't you seen this data from Merril Lynch?
No, I hadn't. A risky move, if Nintendo decides to take a loss and make it back on their first-party games.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: Wondering aloud, nothing more, and then commenting that it sounded like a dumb move. Now we know where it went. Wow, you answer my question.

What's fucking pathetic is you think this was defeating an argument I made; the only one I made is that your appeal to ignorance should be assumed as right.
What appeal to ignorance is that exactly? I claim that reallocation and resupply can account for most of the supply shortages and you fire back with this? Your own article agrees with me.
Last week, Gizmodo reported that Norwegian retailers are being allocated just 20 consoles each: 6 core editions and 14 premium editions. As a condition of this, each shop or chain has to sign an agreement stipulating that they must sell all 20 units on the 2nd December release date. In addition, retailers must agree to bundle at least two titles per console.
And as I said, the UK would be the most likely candidate for supply shortage to shore up the US and Japan. I fail to see how Norway is indicative of a widespread problem.
Target's not Wal-Mart, but it is the same 'Big Box' retailer type. But only a few dozen?
I don't really trust the source, but even if true, so what? How does this disprove that all of the supply shortages can be explained through reallocation AND moving certain deliveries down the line? All you are talking about is a launch day projection and not a reliable one at that.
Due to limited supply from Microsoft, we are unable to guarantee delivery of some Xbox 360 pre-orders for Christmas. Please also note that all pre-orders made on or after November 2nd, 2005 will have expected delivery dates in 2006. We are working with Microsoft to ensure the consoles are delivered as soon as they become available.
This is what you'd expect considering they don't want angry customers calling them up asking why they didn't get Christmas X360's. That's what the letter is about, they are telling customers that they shouldn't expect to receive units until after the holidays if they ordered past November 2nd. And since we don't know Amazon's allocation OR preorder numbers, what exactly is this supposed to prove?
simply states they can't guarantee you'll get it by Christmas. Not a huge supplier, but.
No assurances and without any information about preorder numbers or allocation. So what the hell does this tell us? THat's right, nothing.
So. Not all the most reliable sources, but two online suppliers confirming what I said. I guess it's more than anecdotal now, ain't it?
Nope, since you have failed to provide any evidence of allocation numbers OR preorder sales from any of these stores. All you've got is a blog claiming 25-50 per Target store which tells us nothing unless we have some context for it in the first place and the rest of your examples only say that Amazon and Play are having supply isssues (gee, they are selling out? What a shock!) which proves absolutely nothing. Try again.
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: I'm just quoting the article on the mistakes.
And I was clarifying that they weren't indicative of any widespread problem for those that were reading. That's all.

No, I hadn't. A risky move, if Nintendo decides to take a loss and make it back on their first-party games.
Something that Nintendo has never done before and has denied as a valid corporate tactic. Besides, by the time Revolution ships Microsoft will have the opportunity to do a price cut if they feel they are a threat.
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Wondering aloud, nothing more, and then commenting that it sounded like a dumb move. Now we know where it went. Wow, you answer my question.

What's fucking pathetic is you think this was defeating an argument I made; the only one I made is that your appeal to ignorance should be assumed as right.
What appeal to ignorance is that exactly? I claim that reallocation and resupply can account for most of the supply shortages and you fire back with this? Your own article agrees with me.
No, you lying shithead(Can you actually tell the truth at all?):
But you don't actually know how long the push on those preorders are. They could be as little as a week.
That is the statement I've been referring to as an appeal to ignorance the entire time. Jesus H. Christ. You are a dishonest bitch.

Skipping stuff I stated was shaky and thus don't give much of a damn about..
Due to limited supply from Microsoft, we are unable to guarantee delivery of some Xbox 360 pre-orders for Christmas. Please also note that all pre-orders made on or after November 2nd, 2005 will have expected delivery dates in 2006. We are working with Microsoft to ensure the consoles are delivered as soon as they become available.
This is what you'd expect considering they don't want angry customers calling them up asking why they didn't get Christmas X360's. That's what the letter is about, they are telling customers that they shouldn't expect to receive units until after the holidays if they ordered past November 2nd. And since we don't know Amazon's allocation OR preorder numbers, what exactly is this supposed to prove?
The exact claim I made earlier, that some were being delayed until mid-December, duh? Maybe if you weren't busy inflating this into some claim it wasn't, it'd make more sense.
simply states they can't guarantee you'll get it by Christmas. Not a huge supplier, but.
No assurances and without any information about preorder numbers or allocation. So what the hell does this tell us? THat's right, nothing.
It confirms exactly what I claimed and which you claimed they could get 'as soon as next week'. Sorry, that's all I said. I know you wish it was more.
So. Not all the most reliable sources, but two online suppliers confirming what I said. I guess it's more than anecdotal now, ain't it?
Nope, since you have failed to provide any evidence of allocation numbers OR preorder sales from any of these stores. All you've got is a blog claiming 25-50 per Target store which tells us nothing unless we have some context for it in the first place and the rest of your examples only say that Amazon and Play are having supply isssues (gee, they are selling out? What a shock!) which proves absolutely nothing. Try again.
No. I backed up my claims as I desired to. I see no reason to bow to your ridiculous chariacture of my position. I never made claims about numbers being moved around, though I speculated on why of the shortage; now I have answers.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

You still apparently don't get it do you? Nothing you provided proves how much of the shortage actually exists and none of it says that the majority of preorders won't be shipped within a week or two as a push like I already said. Sure, some retailers are going to push till next year, but that's not what we were talking about. We were talking about the people who preordered, were promised a box, and then had that taken back from launch day. The fact that Amazon can't assure availibility for preorder made November 2nd for Christmas means nothing since they never promised a launch day box for those people in the first place, nor do they say when those boxes will arrive, just that they don't make any promises about it being this year for everyone.

Do you get it now? You have no numbers about how many boxes are going to get moved day one, nor any numbers about how many boxes may be held up a mere week or two because of a kink on launch delivery. Your "evidence" doesn't dispute any of that.
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:You still apparently don't get it do you?
Oh, I get it: You're parodying my words into something they aren't, and spinning like a top to try and portray this as anything but you being dishonest. My statements are what they are, and are not the chariactures you try to pass off. Cease the strawmen.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

Let me make this easier for you by doing an illustration:

[x] = 100,000 units

Original Estimate:

Launch: [x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x]

Week 2: [x]


Delayed Estimate:

Launch: [x][x][x][x][x][x]

Week 2: [x][x][x][x][x]

-----------------------------------

Amazon preorders: 100,000
Preorders to fill within a week of launch: 90,000
Preorder to fill post launch: 10,000
Allocation in 2005: 96,000

-----------------------------------

See how this works? That fits the articles and everything I said perfectly as an example.
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote:
The Kernel wrote:You still apparently don't get it do you?
Oh, I get it: You're parodying my words into something they aren't, and spinning like a top to try and portray this as anything but you being dishonest. My statements are what they are, and are not the chariactures you try to pass off. Cease the strawmen.
Is this the way you always debate someone? 90% bullshit cloaking 10% substance? Make a fucking argument that is consistant and makes sense and drop the damn bullshitting or shut the fuck up.
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:Let me make this easier for you by doing an illustration:
See how this works? That fits the articles and everything I said perfectly as an example.
Let me make this even easier: Shut up with strawmen. :roll: Christ. I never argued there was a worldwide shortage any more than what CNN said, where shortages were regional and by distributor. Of course, that still is a shortage, but not the kind I originally wondered about.

Given that the wondering was openly phrased as a question, it can't have been an argument. Unless you're deranged and looney, which you seem to be.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:Is this the way you always debate someone? 90% bullshit cloaking 10% substance? Make a fucking argument that is consistant and makes sense and drop the damn bullshitting or shut the fuck up.
Excuse me, child? You spew endless strawmen of me then claim it was 'Cloaking' on my part? You claim I'm 'bullshitting' when I simply support my own claims and don't rise to your baiting for an argument which would not be supported by evidence?

This is how adults debate, Kernel: By not responding to dishonest tactics to change what your opponent is arguing. I made claims about folks having their preorders shoved back to December or later, I backed it up. End of discussion. What you wish it was doesn't enter into it.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: Let me make this even easier: Shut up with strawmen. :roll: Christ. I never argued there was a worldwide shortage any more than what CNN said, where shortages were regional and by distributor. Of course, that still is a shortage, but not the kind I originally wondered about.

Given that the wondering was openly phrased as a question, it can't have been an argument. Unless you're deranged and looney, which you seem to be.
Then we are in agreement. But YOU are the one that expanded the shortage argument by trying to argue against my article from The Register about 3 million units shipped. Why you would post something you don't agree with is beyond me.
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:Then we are in agreement. But YOU are the one that expanded the shortage argument by trying to argue against my article from The Register about 3 million units shipped. Why you would post something you don't agree with is beyond me.
I argued there was a shortage, dipshit, not that they won't move 3 million units. Therefore there is no disagreement, just you trying to strawman me again. You're pretty bold, or perhaps just mind-numbingly stupid, to keep shoving words in my mouth(Keyboard?).
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: Excuse me, child? You spew endless strawmen of me then claim it was 'Cloaking' on my part? You claim I'm 'bullshitting' when I simply support my own claims and don't rise to your baiting for an argument which would not be supported by evidence?

This is how adults debate, Kernel: By not responding to dishonest tactics to change what your opponent is arguing. I made claims about folks having their preorders shoved back to December or later, I backed it up. End of discussion. What you wish it was doesn't enter into it.
Blah, blah, more of the same shit yet again. I'm sure you think you are being extremely clever, but anyone reading this can tell that your posts have consisted of nothing more than an attempt to stir up an argument about nothing and then attempt to use vitrol to make yourself look important. In other words exactly what you have done in every other debate we've had.

[Quotes Fixed - SirNitram]
User avatar
The Kernel
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7438
Joined: 2003-09-17 02:31am
Location: Kweh?!

Post by The Kernel »

SirNitram wrote: I argued there was a shortage, dipshit, not that they won't move 3 million units. Therefore there is no disagreement, just you trying to strawman me again. You're pretty bold, or perhaps just mind-numbingly stupid, to keep shoving words in my mouth(Keyboard?).
That's right, you used the tactic of claiming that CNN disagreed with the 3 million estimate. Of course I should have known that you were just spamming with bullshit interpretations of an article rather than stating your opinion on the matter. Sure. :roll:
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Excuse me, child? You spew endless strawmen of me then claim it was 'Cloaking' on my part? You claim I'm 'bullshitting' when I simply support my own claims and don't rise to your baiting for an argument which would not be supported by evidence?

This is how adults debate, Kernel: By not responding to dishonest tactics to change what your opponent is arguing. I made claims about folks having their preorders shoved back to December or later, I backed it up. End of discussion. What you wish it was doesn't enter into it.
Blah, blah, more of the same shit yet again. I'm sure you think you are being extremely clever, but anyone reading this can tell that your posts have consisted of nothing more than an attempt to stir up an argument about nothing and then attempt to use vitrol to make yourself look important. In other words exactly what you have done in every other debate we've had.

[Quotes Fixed - SirNitram]
What's that? No actual evidence I argued anything but what I said? Nothing but you posturing and grandstanding?

Here's me unsurprised. Since you're not even on topic anymore, just whining about how I wouldn't take the bait, you can desist now. Childish accusals you can't or won't back up are only suitable for the sewer.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

The Kernel wrote:
SirNitram wrote: I argued there was a shortage, dipshit, not that they won't move 3 million units. Therefore there is no disagreement, just you trying to strawman me again. You're pretty bold, or perhaps just mind-numbingly stupid, to keep shoving words in my mouth(Keyboard?).
That's right, you used the tactic of claiming that CNN disagreed with the 3 million estimate. Of course I should have known that you were just spamming with bullshit interpretations of an article rather than stating your opinion on the matter. Sure. :roll:
I never said a word about the 3 million estimate, you lying peice of shit. You can cease trying to be clever; you're now just being spammy as you keep reciting this, wishing it to be true. Then, of course, you accuse me of spamming. You're irony in a can, you idiot.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
Post Reply