Games Workshop's Latest Price Insanity

[Dave]

However you would need a 3D scanner as well if you want to 'copy' an already existing model like GW's, and those are really expensive and somewhat difficult to use. So such a thing would be far into the future.

Then again, I've heard stories of how some people used two Microsoft Kinect's pointed at each other to rapidly model anything placed between the two. I don't know the resolution they got out of it, but the hardware and software is there, at a consumer-grade level.

[Stark]

Since you can just rip models out of dozens of games and mods, that seems a little excessive. Much more useful for stuff like figures that look less like bread boxes.

It'd probably take 3 kinects, unless you're rotating them.

Edit- hahaha I missed the 'business model' bleating. Their business model is so sound their operating profits are small? Must be why they have all those empty suburban stores supported by ludicrous prices.

[Spoonist]

Since you can just rip models out of dozens of games and mods, that seems a little excessive. Much more useful for stuff like figures that look less like bread boxes.

It'd probably take 3 kinects, unless you're rotating them.

Too much 'noise' it would take a big effort to make the model useful. So if you want 'pirated' copies of GW stuff that is a looong way to go.
However as you said, if one does not care for the latest official stuff from GW there are plenty of computer games 3D models of similar characters which would look great as 3D prints. Still a couple of years away though.
But then again if so then you could equally well be playing some other game.

Edit- hahaha I missed the 'business model' bleating. Their business model is so sound their operating profits are small? Must be why they have all those empty suburban stores supported by ludicrous prices.

Huh?
If that is some sort of retort to my position then please elaborate. Where do their business model fail?
GW turned a loss in '07 into one of their biggest profits in '10, yes their business model is sound.
They are one of the few gaming companies that started in the 70's who have survived and are traded on the stock market.

Their ridicilous store prices are of course part of that. Just like their ever changing rules and model lines forcing consumers who want to stay competetive to keep purchasing their products.

Just like for MTG to be successful they had to change the tournament scene to only include the latest cards.

[Starglider]

However you would need a 3D scanner as well if you want to 'copy' an already existing model like GW's, and those are really expensive and somewhat difficult to use. So such a thing would be far into the future.

The price of 3D scanning will probably decline at the same rate as the printers, there's no fundamental reason why 3D scanning has to be more expensive than 2D scanning. The structured lighting technique used by Kinect works fine, essentially you up the resolution and optimise it to scan a 30cm closed box instead of a 6m noisy room and put the object on a microwave-style turntable. Noise is not an issue with appropriate averaging and integration algorithms - not only is the noise lower, Kinect also has to use IR frequencies and run in real-time, whereas scanners can use visual frequencies and run as slow as necessary.

That said as we've seen with breaking DRM, even if the vast majority of people are unable to do it, it only takes one who can (as long as they have an Internet connection). So even if for some bizarre reason we're stuck with existing high-end laser-ranging scanners, some of the geeks who operate them will be into wargamming and some of those will scan their models when the boss isn't watching and post the files online.

[Spoonist]

However you would need a 3D scanner as well if you want to 'copy' an already existing model like GW's, and those are really expensive and somewhat difficult to use. So such a thing would be far into the future.

The price of 3D scanning will probably decline at the same rate as the printers, there's no fundamental reason why 3D scanning has to be more expensive than 2D scanning. The structured lighting technique used by Kinect works fine, essentially you up the resolution and optimise it to scan a 30cm closed box instead of a 6m noisy room and put the object on a microwave-style turntable. Noise is not an issue with appropriate averaging and integration algorithms - not only is the noise lower, Kinect also has to use IR frequencies and run in real-time, whereas scanners can use visual frequencies and run as slow as necessary.

The stuff I've seen made by the kinect fanatics do have lots of noise. But I wouldn't know the capabilities of kinect tech if taken a couple of steps further.
What I do know though is the automation industry where I work and those 3D scanners we get to use there are expensive, difficult to use and still give a so-so result for things like this.
I hope that you are right that would make our work so much easier in the future, but until I see it I'll continue to be a cynical old bastard.

That said as we've seen with breaking DRM, even if the vast majority of people are unable to do it, it only takes one who can (as long as they have an Internet connection). So even if for some bizarre reason we're stuck with existing high-end laser-ranging scanners, some of the geeks who operate them will be into wargamming and some of those will scan their models when the boss isn't watching and post the files online.

Didn't think about that, you are right. It only takes a few dedicated to do it, and those would be dedicated enough to solve any noise issues as well.

So maybe GW needs to change their business model again and include RFID in their molds to scan for "true" GW stuff for use in tournaments. I wouldn't put such shenanigans past them.

[Stark]

The 3D scanning jury-rigs probably require a manual pass to 'clean up' the model, but I guess if your aim is to create 'copies' rather than 'substitutes' that's better than starting frmo scratch. Given Kinect's resolution, I think it would struggle with figures of any detail (guys with cloaks or animal skins in particular).

However, while home plastic printing is going to make it worse, cheap plastic stuff is ALREADY dramtically cheaper than GW stuff. Hell, given the amount of 'modelling' people do to their GW guys, I bet people could make generic plastic army men look fine, and god knows what they'd do with kits with slide mold, multi-colour sprue plastic stuff.

Is there any way to establsh what proportion of the GW market actaully participates in tournaments? Those that don't shoudl already be totally ignoring the attempts to lock people into their overpriced shitty manufacturing products, but that said a big part of their attempts to hook customers is the social aspect.

[Vendetta]

Tournaments probably aren't really a large part of the hobby. Collecting and painting for its own sake is however, hell when Rackham announced that their whole range for Confrontation was going to prepainted plastics the gamer reaction was so overwhelmingly negative it took about a month for the company to fold the stock took such a battering, and whilst Rackham weren't quite on the same level as GW they were still one of the bigger competitors (probably on the level of hordemachine when Confrontation was at its height).

Though there are plenty of other games in the running, with games like Mantic's Kings of War stepping into the Big Fantasy Battle ring (and another that I'm not sure I'm allowed to talk about, so won't).

[Starglider]

The stuff I've seen made by the kinect fanatics do have lots of noise.

Yes, that is current technology designed for low-cost room scanning at 30 FPS. I am talking about near future technology for scanning small stationary objects. Your statement is equivalent to 'Oh, I took a photo of my passport with my camera phone from 2003, and it looks all grainy, cheap document scanning must be impossible'.

What I do know though is the automation industry where I work and those 3D scanners we get to use there are expensive, difficult to use and still give a so-so result for things like this.

Look at the improvement in quality of a $300 flatbed scanner or printer from 1990 to 2000. After being stuck with dot matrix bluriness since the 70s, suddenly we advanced to near photo quality. The processing and sensors are there for 3D now, the mass market demand hasn't been but is just starting to materialise. It'll happen.

I hope that you are right that would make our work so much easier in the future, but until I see it I'll continue to be a cynical old bastard.

I'm sure you'll continue to use professional grade equipment which will also continue to improve, just not as fast.

So maybe GW needs to change their business model again and include RFID in their molds to scan for "true" GW stuff for use in tournaments. I wouldn't put such shenanigans past them.

No I wouldn't be surprised either, I hope they at least have the decency to make it useful by having it interface with tablets to tally points values, keep track of game state and do the more tedious rules calculations automatically. Of course they'll have to encrypt it otherwise people will copy the RFIDs as well. I'll laugh if most of the manufacturing cost is the DRM chip.

[Stark]

If not tournaments, maybe people don't like to do too much to their kits? You could buy nearly a dozen 1/72 tanks for the price of a Predator, for instance, and while they'd look a bit strange without some kitbashing it seems a bizarre way to spend money. Do they still let you buy bits?

I'm experimenting with various miniatures rules (including Mantic's, which seems much more interesting than 40k) for an MG Gundam tabletop game, and hilariously this would actually be cheaper, while requiring most of a house to play.

[Spoonist]

Is there any way to establsh what proportion of the GW market actaully participates in tournaments? Those that don't shoudl already be totally ignoring the attempts to lock people into their overpriced shitty manufacturing products, but that said a big part of their attempts to hook customers is the social aspect.

Just like with MTG you only have to have the big collectors do the tournaments, then the tournament rules will be enforced by word of mouth.
If you invest enough dough into a concept like this of course you are not going to allow others to cheat.
In the MTG example there have been numerous people who have simply photocopied cards and put into sleeves with worthless cards making it look OK. Only to be ridiculed by other players who refuse to play against them. Why? Because they have paid for the stuff so why would they let some newcomer get off for free.

Same with GW, there is a great reinforcement of "I have the latest rules, thus I rule" etc. Elitism is rampant within the GW player community.

If you are playing with friends only, who cares? But then again if so then you are not the target audience nor the prime customer.

[Stark]

Can you show any stats for that? I'm really curious (at least from AU perspective) since I've never seen more than two people in a GW store ever, and yet I know plenty of people who own GW stuff and played the games at some point.

If they're only kept afloat by nerd elitism and brand loyalty, it's no wonder their financials look so bad.

EDIT - Hasn't the target market been the younger audience since the 90s?

[Slacker]

Elitism is rampant within the GW community in terms of tactics and understanding the rules of the game. That does not apply to the modeling and painting aspect of the hobby, in the sense of using exclusively Games Workshop products. Spoonist, you're clearly not really into the 'elite' aspect of the hobby if you think that's the case.

Moreover, you've completely missed the point of the article and discussion-GW isn't afloat any more and their customers aren't standing for their tactics at this point, so their business model ISN'T working. A number of other games companies have come out in the last ten years that have done things differently that have significantly eaten into GW's market share and have offered customers a viable alternative, and people have taken them up on it.

[Kojiro]

Can you show any stats for that? I'm really curious (at least from AU perspective) since I've never seen more than two people in a GW store ever, and yet I know plenty of people who own GW stuff and played the games at some point.

If they're only kept afloat by nerd elitism and brand loyalty, it's no wonder their financials look so bad.

EDIT - Hasn't the target market been the younger audience since the 90s?

I used to work in a GW store back in the 90's/early 2000. I can recall exactly when the change to younger target audience occured. In fact it was a general shift from building a customer base to recruit/drain/lose mentality. We were told overall to push for new players, to sell core sets and generally go for explosive 'buy ins' while we had the kids attention. Whether or not the kid stuck around, learned to paint or ditched the stuff didn't matter so long as we made our cash off them.

Fact is that an experienced player, who has an army, paints, carry case etc just doesn't bring in that much cash. They buy an additional unit or vehicle occasionally but you won't make that much off them in a year. A new player needs the rulebook, they need the case, the paints, the brushes, the whole lot. You can make more off them with secondary stuff than you can an old timer without even selling them a model. I can play 40K, if I want, without ever spending a cent in a GW store- I have no need of anything new- which is precisely why GW doesn't care how crazy I think their prices are.

[Stofsk]

Wouldn't their constant price hikes serve as a barrier to entry to those hypothetical new players? I mean unless they have rich parents I guess.

[Kojiro]

You'd think so wouldn't you? But then that's why there are intro sets which really are decent value. The first taste isn't free, but it seems affordable. The Assault on Black Reach box contains a tactical squad, terminator squad, dreadnought and captain for the marines and 20 ork boyz, 5 nobz a warboss and three deff coptaz for the orks. This is a good deal, no doubt. If you want to split it with a friend (who say takes the orks) you're paying $80 for all those marines.

What they don't tell you though is that when you want to buy an second tactical squad it'll cost you $62, the captain $37, the terminators and the dread are $74 each. Of course if you buy the new squad you don't have to give them a missile launcher and flamer, or the sergeant a chainsword. You don't have to give your new captain the balls kit of a bolter and power sword. Your dread can have a decent weapons load out.

They also breed a kind of religious fanaticism and loyalty in the stores, openly calling other systems 'heresy' (not to mention crap) and mocking, shunning or removing from the store anyone so much as mentioning such. Where I live there are two types of wargamer- those that play GW stuff and those that play everything else. But this 'dedication' let's the keep a literal hold on customers- I've seen it used to guilt people onto purchases. Indeed recently I watched a friend of mine get guilted into buying two stormravens because 'the store was in danger or being shut down', according to the manager. This disgusts me because a) my friend knew full well he could get them half the store price from Wayland games and b) the manager of the store is an old friend I used to work with back in the day and you don't do that shit to friends.

There is a long and continuing to grow number of people who have simply gotten fed up or outright angry at GW and walked away. I can't say I know anyone who has done quit any other systems with the same feelings. That alone should tell you something.

[Spoonist]

@Stark
Numbers? Numbers on what? I'm a bit slow today and didn't get it from the context.

Moreover, you've completely missed the point of the article and discussion-GW isn't afloat any more and their customers aren't standing for their tactics at this point, so their business model ISN'T working. A number of other games companies have come out in the last ten years that have done things differently that have significantly eaten into GW's market share and have offered customers a viable alternative, and people have taken them up on it.

Bullshit. Didn't you claim to be the writer of the article? Or did I miss something there?
In it you quote this:
http://investor.games-workshop.com/down ... Report.pdf
Their profit is increasing. Their sales are up.
Are you refering to some other numbers that we are not aware of? Have their sales dropped in 2011?
*goes to google current stock price*
Looks like a big drop JAN-FEB then rise through MAR-APR back to prechristmas trading in MAY. For a toy company I'd say they look in great shape. Am I missing something?
Go here, change the start date to 2006, look at the index
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 4GBGBXSSQ3
They hade a huge dip in '07 and a record profit in '10, deja vu feeling coming up, who said that just a couple of posts ago? Yupp that's right; me.
Their revamped business model IS WORKING please provide evidence to the contrary or concede the point.

Elitism is rampant within the GW community in terms of tactics and understanding the rules of the game. That does not apply to the modeling and painting aspect of the hobby, in the sense of using exclusively Games Workshop products. Spoonist, you're clearly not really into the 'elite' aspect of the hobby if you think that's the case.

Quite correct that I'm not into the elite aspect of GW, I'm definately on the outside looking in. I'd also add that I would only have insight into the northern european market, my acquaintance is only with people in the hobby in UK, DK, SE and NO. Mostly from the convention scene, but also from playing other games with kids who hang out at the GW store(s). Plus some random internet ramblings. I know that the US market is different, having been over the pond a couple of times, but the revenue is similar there as well.
So I could be totally out of touch. However I don't think I am. Lots of the min-maxing comes from finding the 'broken' units in the latest revision and utilizing them under conditions to maximize gain. So as you say tactics and rules, but... that means getting those 'broken' units ie models.
As for the elitism part, agreed on not necessarily using GW paint but as for the rest, I've seen it all. All the way from someone complaining about people using Märklin terrain (which is stupid because Märklin terrain is much much nicer looking), or teasing other kids because they don't use the GW 'briefcase'. Up to trying to get people disqualified for cheating when using 'too much' non GW stuff on their pieces. I've seen men in their fourties refusing to talk to preteens because they had the wrong 'generation' of GW stuff and couldn't be bothered explaining the difference. (I think the kids had some LOTR units mixed with the WFB stuff). I've seen teen kids bullying some other kid because he 'only' had old stuff he got from his father. etc Even the fluff can get heated amongst the GW fanatics.
When it comes to elitism I'd rate the GW subculture way, way, way worse than any other part of the gaming hobby and that includes MTG and historical larp. (A caveat, maybe with the exclusion of paintball/softair but their type of elitism is different and more objective on truly expensive stuff which in their case really is better).
But that is all subjective, agreed. As I said earlier:
"If you are playing with friends only, who cares? But then again if so then you are not the target audience nor the prime customer."

They also breed a kind of religious fanaticism and loyalty in the stores, openly calling other systems 'heresy' (not to mention crap) and mocking, shunning or removing from the store anyone so much as mentioning such. Where I live there are two types of wargamer- those that play GW stuff and those that play everything else. But this 'dedication' let's the keep a literal hold on customers- I've seen it used to guilt people onto purchases.

This I've seen plenty of.

[Serafina]

And to think that, when i started, i actually got advice on how to build terrain and customize my models using lot's of non-GW-stuff...
Or how we built the terrain for the Eye of Terror-Campaign using Märklin-terrain and non-brand materials.

But that was more than half a decade ago - and i've been out of the hobby for an almost equal time now.

[Stravo]

Has anyone gotten a look at the new Citadel Finecast figures? They look amazing, wonderful detail and at last no longer metal so you can glue it like the rest of your models and never ever have to worry about fucking pinning anything ever again. I still remember the blister that developed on my thumb trying to screw holes into the pewter to put in the pins for the Chaplain and his jump pack. My metal Lysander, Librarian, Dante and Terminator Chaplain are sitting at the work station mocking me to pin them. I may try to dump them on EBay for these new figures to avoid that pain and frustration. Now there is some controversy in that some people have been seeing a number of miscasts, someone on the Dakka forums posted a Librarian who came with a bent staff and a storm bolter missing the top half. However others are saying that they have no issues with their figures so we'll have to wait and see.

If you want to see the figures you can see a pretty good video on the Miniwargaming store and Dakka has some pictures. All in all great looking product. Kudos for them on this but boo on how they handled it, from the utter secrecy of the unveiling to coupling it with a price increase.

[Stravo]

Privateer Press has announced an amazing sale. Buy a starter box set that includes a basic army and its tokens and get the rule book for free AND free shipping. Can anyone doubt this is in reaction to Games Workshop's price increase and gamer discontent? I have had only a passing interest in Warmachine but hell, if I can buy a starter army for under $65, get the rule book for free with free shipping it sounds extremely enticing.

http://privateerpress.com/privateer-pre ... rsary-sale

[Stark]

People getting 'guilted' int buying stuff answers two questions for me. How stupid the customers are (amazingly) and why all the suburban stores exist. I couldn't see them getting many impulse sales, cause their product is so expensive, but if they're abusing their customer base to get sales, renting all those stores might be worth it.

It also explains the changing focus to customers too weak or foolish to make decisions. I thought they were just badly run, but this is good stuff.

[Kojiro]

Has anyone gotten a look at the new Citadel Finecast figures?

They're not really shining yet, due to the current range simply being recasts, using the same moulds, as the original metals. The resin looks better next to metal but that's purely a texture issue- metal is crap to look at. Undercoat them and I doubt you could tell the difference without picking out up*.

*That said, you can probably tell the difference because of the high proportion of mistcasts and air bubbles. They've since taken it down but you can see it here, the 'promo' piece they put forward was even flawed (their facebook page contains many, many comments pointing this out). Finecast thus far seems to have an exceptionaly high flaw rate. Just google 'finecast review' for pics a plenty.

Privateer Press has announced an amazing sale. Buy a starter box set that includes a basic army and its tokens and get the rule book for free AND free shipping. Can anyone doubt this is in reaction to Games Workshop's price increase and gamer discontent? I have had only a passing interest in Warmachine but hell, if I can buy a starter army for under $65, get the rule book for free with free shipping it sounds extremely enticing.

It's not entirely in reaction- it is after all their 10 year anniversary. It just seems that GW gave them a present for some reason. I'm sure they'd have done something regardless. But yeah, I'm sure the PP guys are smart enough to recognise a opportunity when it presents itself. I'd highly recommend getting into it. Just as a note, PP used to sell those boxes here for about $80. Then PP switched from metal and the price of those boxes dropped to $48. Perhaps GW should find out what magical cheap production trick PP has going.

That said (and not to derail the thread too much) Warmachine is a far, far superior game to 40K. It's balanced and playtested to levels GW has never heard of and the depth of play is far deeper than 40K. If anyone wants to discuss it or wants more info PM me and I'll be happy to chat.

People getting 'guilted' int buying stuff answers two questions for me. How stupid the customers are (amazingly) and why all the suburban stores exist. I couldn't see them getting many impulse sales, cause their product is so expensive, but if they're abusing their customer base to get sales, renting all those stores might be worth it.

12 year old aren't known for their smarts. And the 'abuse' also takes the form of goading and competitiveness. That same store manager has some of the most busted armies imaginable (a Blood Angels army consisting entirely of six dreadnoughts, a Khorne Fantasy army consisting of nothing but bloodletters on juggernaughts)- armies which are pure cheese one could only build if one had heaps of disposable cash. Or the support of the store. Either way there's standing challenges to beat said staff- to build an army that can do it. Naturally the only way to answer such blatant abuses of the (poorly balanced) rules is to buy an equally focused army. An army which is of course useless to play outside of that scenario, but for just a few more $$$ you could make it really good... But this is probably more common than guilt- the idea that your army performance is somehow a reflection on you, and you'll be way cooler if you have a more powerful army. Imagine how a 13 year old feels when the super cool staffer says 'sorry, your army isn't up to scratch to play me... but you know what would give you a chance?'

[Srelex]

While I'm sure there are quite a few better games than GW's offering, the problem is that miniature gaming is a niche hobby as it is, and lord knows it's hard enough for me to find people with Warhammer, let alone various obscure games that would basically be accessible via the internet only for me. Perhaps others are fortunate enough not to be in this position but GW products are still easier to access than things like Obscurity: The Gathering or whatever for most people.

As for staff behaviour in stores, the ones I've seen before seemed cool enough to their customers, and even accepting of dark mutterings about price hikes, but like with most things it's going to vary.

[Stark]

Well that's what I mean; using high-pressure sales with kids is one thing, but I'm curious if this was a conscious culture decision or simply a result of poor performance measurement. When you only have 10 customers a day (or in a suburban store, perhaps less than 200 customers total) and you're measured on units or whatever, you're going to push every single teenage kid to walk out with as much stuff as possible. It won't scare anyone off because people with enough spine to reject such sales methods would never be in the store to begin with, and if this makes players police themselves, it's helpful (if toxic).

I've gotta put up the guerilla size/price comparison pics between Bandai stuff and GW stuff, lol.

Srelex, I'm not sure what you mean, but anyone with any plastic mans can play any game. I don't have the experience a lot of you guys have, but I've never met anyone married to the 40k rules, they're into either the modelling or fluff so wouldn't care if you said 'hey these rules are different'. Frankly, it being hard to find players is one of the reasons why blowing a grand on massively overpriced toy soldiers seems particualrly retarded to me. I guess the answer is to go and experience the high-pressure environment in your friendly suburban revenue factory, I mean GW store.

[Slacker]

@Stark
Numbers? Numbers on what? I'm a bit slow today and didn't get it from the context.

Moreover, you've completely missed the point of the article and discussion-GW isn't afloat any more and their customers aren't standing for their tactics at this point, so their business model ISN'T working. A number of other games companies have come out in the last ten years that have done things differently that have significantly eaten into GW's market share and have offered customers a viable alternative, and people have taken them up on it.

Bullshit. Didn't you claim to be the writer of the article? Or did I miss something there?
In it you quote this:
http://investor.games-workshop.com/down ... Report.pdf
Their profit is increasing. Their sales are up.
Are you refering to some other numbers that we are not aware of? Have their sales dropped in 2011?
*goes to google current stock price*
Looks like a big drop JAN-FEB then rise through MAR-APR back to prechristmas trading in MAY. For a toy company I'd say they look in great shape. Am I missing something?

Their sales by volume are down 10-15% over that same span-their numbers are only good because of their dramatic price increases and all of the slashing they've made in their backend and all of the stores they've closed. There's only so much cutting they can do before there's no more they can trim, and the prices are so ridiculous now that fewer and fewer people are buying each year. That was the point I was actually driving at-it's the wrong model to increase sales volume, which they need to do when they've actual got viable competition, which they've never had to legitimately deal with in the past. Their methodology is exactly the wrong thing to do to survive long-term in a market with real competition. That information is buried in their investor's report, you have to really dig in order to find it.

[Spoonist]

Their sales by volume are down 10-15% over that same span-their numbers are only good because of their dramatic price increases and all of the slashing they've made in their backend and all of the stores they've closed. There's only so much cutting they can do before there's no more they can trim, and the prices are so ridiculous now that fewer and fewer people are buying each year. That was the point I was actually driving at-it's the wrong model to increase sales volume, which they need to do when they've actual got viable competition, which they've never had to legitimately deal with in the past. Their methodology is exactly the wrong thing to do to survive long-term in a market with real competition. That information is buried in their investor's report, you have to really dig in order to find it.

Their working methodology is wrong? If you had been given such a speech in 06-07, you could have had something. To give it now is just nerdrage.
Me I despise GW with a vengeance because of what they represent and how they have gone about their business, however I recognize that they have survived for four decades where as their competition in the eitghhies is gone, their competition in the nighties is gone, even some of the competition from 00 is gone. Who out there remembers MageKnight for instance? I'll bet that most of this new competition will be long gone as well a couple of years down the road.
Why?
Because GW has enough staying power in the brand recognition and enough capital to do stuff like this. They have the margin to do a couple of bad years every now and then. Either through their own mistakes or through the market changing.
For all of those other, they simply don't. One or two bad years and they are gone.
You can go outside of geekdom and people will have heard of GW brands, for those other I don't even think that most gamers know who they are.

Where I do think that your type of rant could be right is that GW has not changed their market so much, even with the LOTR lineup they are still targetting a very small audience of hard core nerds. If nerd culture would change dramatically in post web2.0 then they could be in for a challenge. However me, I don't see that coming at all. I see nerdcore increasing all over.