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Format Wars, Blu-Ray faltering
Posted: 2006-12-07 11:02pm
by FedRebel
http://techdigest.tv/2006/12/consumers_favou.html
HDTVUK have reported the findings of a US-based survey which suggests that a major factor in consumer negativity about the Blu-ray high definition optical disc format is a distrust of Sony, and annoyance from some gamers that they're forced to adopt Blu-ray if they get a PS3.
Cymfony, a market influence analytics company, discovered that positive discussions about HD DVD were 46% higher than Blu-ray, with over twice as many post authors stating being "impressed with HD DVD" versus "impressed with Blu-ray"
The study was independent, so not sponsored by any company with a direct interest in one of the formats. Some consumer comments that came out of the survey included:
"Sony, on the other hand, has a track record of starting format wars, and losing them too. Beta, mini-disc, umd, and atrac have all been huge flops, but they just don't seem to learn their lesson because they're too greedy." -- phishbook.com
"There are other issues too; the sheer arrogance of Sony is incredible, and puts me off wanting to support them." -- avforums.com
"What if you don't give a damn about watching movies on your game console? What if you prefer to buy a separate HD player? That's the rub. Sony forces you to buy Blu-ray. MS doesn't force you to buy HD-DVD. It's about giving the consumer options. Bargain my arse, as a consumer I prefer options." -- forums.adventuregamers.com
Jim Nail, chief strategy & marketing officer at Cymfony, commented, "While the media and manufacturers duke it out over their format choice, our research shows that consumers are turning away from Blu-ray because of Sony's reputation and heavy-handed launch strategy. Cymfony's unique capabilities for analysis of traditional and consumer generated media provide corporations with an early warning system of whether their marketing or product initiatives are gaining traction in the user community."
[Palpatine] Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen [/Palpatine]
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:35am
by Stofsk
So which one is actually better?
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:37am
by Darth Wong
I hate Sony so much that I couldn't even care less how Blu-Ray compares to HD-DVD on a technical level. I want to see it fall just to see Sony bleed.
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:41am
by Ace Pace
Stofsk wrote:So which one is actually better?
Very much depends on what you are looking at.
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:45am
by Stofsk
Darth Wong wrote:I hate Sony so much that I couldn't even care less how Blu-Ray compares to HD-DVD on a technical level. I want to see it fall just to see Sony bleed.
Heh. Their shenanigans haven't raised any confidence in me, truth be told, though I'm so divorced from these issues that I'm more curious than expectant.
Ace Pace wrote:Stofsk wrote:So which one is actually better?
Very much depends on what you are looking at.
Assume I don't know what I'm looking at.
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:52am
by atg
Stofsk wrote:So which one is actually better?
As I understand it Blue-ray has a higher capacity, but has much higher production costs.
Posted: 2006-12-08 02:27am
by Sephirius
Go Blu-Ray!
I don't want to buy another player after shelling out for a PS3
Posted: 2006-12-08 07:32am
by Meest
Blu-ray is superior is all aspects except cost, but most importantly has more room for expanding capacity.
Posted: 2006-12-08 10:10am
by Arrow
atg wrote:As I understand it Blue-ray has a higher capacity, but has much higher production costs.
Higher theoretical capacity. Last I checked, production Blu-ray disks had lower capacity than HD-DVD disks, and Sony was having trouble with higher capacity lab samples. This could have changed in the few months since I last read about Blu-ray, though.
Meest wrote:Blu-ray is superior is all aspects except cost
Not really. Both Blu-ray and HD-DVD support AVS, VC-1 and MPEG-2, and the supported audio formats are nearly identical. Both have more than enough transfer rate to support 1080p (and both have the same data transfer rate of 36 Mbps. The resulting image and sound quality depends entirely on the hardware each manufacture puts into the player, and the end user's home theater equipment.
The only way I could see Blu-ray being clearly superior is if a 1600p spec was released and Sony actual delivers on its promises. The former not happening any time soon, and I have my doubts about the latter.
Posted: 2006-12-08 01:07pm
by Admiral Valdemar
You know what? Much as I dislike Sony, I hope BOTH formats go the way of SACD/Audio DVD. I hate forced format wars, and let's face it, neither side is backing down on this, no matter what surveys say. Sony has enough resources to bleed for years over this.
The companies are trying to win here by screwing the consumer over. Only, unlike Betamax vs. VHS, neither side is going to be a victor or loser anytime soon.
Posted: 2006-12-08 02:21pm
by Arthur_Tuxedo
VHS reigned supreme from 1977 to about 2000, and these idiots think they're going to dethrone DVD after it only overtook VHS about 6 years ago? Please. The only thing to speculate is which format will fail harder. My prediction is HD-DVD will end up a niche product like Laserdisc and BD will end up a forgotten product like Videodisc.
Posted: 2006-12-08 02:43pm
by TheFeniX
Ok, this whole issue has me kind of confused, so I'm going to throw this out there and maybe someone can point me in a better direction than Google has. I've done a bit of reading from random websites, but haven't received anything concrete.
From my understanding: HD-DVD is "open-source" in that if you wanted to create an HD-DVD, have fun, let us know how it works out.
Blu-Ray is proprietary so everytime you want to use the format, you're giving money (in numerous different forms) to the owners (namely Sony).
Is this an accurate description?
Based on this, I've looked at the whole ordeal like Sony Memorystick⢠vs something like SanDisk. I'm under the impression that SanDisks are manufactured by anyone who wants to use the format, whereas Sony's stick are made by Sony and are rediculously priced (sometimes double the cost per gigabyte.
Even if I didn't hate Sony with a seething passion, bullshit like this would push me over the edge anyways.
Posted: 2006-12-08 02:47pm
by MKSheppard
Arthur_Tuxedo wrote:VHS reigned supreme from 1977 to about 2000, and these idiots think they're going to dethrone DVD after it only overtook VHS about 6 years ago? Please.
Well, you DO need it to play HiDef Content; it will pickup when HDTVs actually become cheap enough to buy a decent sized one at $500.
Posted: 2006-12-08 05:58pm
by Arthur_Tuxedo
Except that most consumers don't see anything wrong with the DVD's they've already got, and don't have trained eyes. I doubt the average consumer would notice much difference between an upscaled DVD and a hi-def one in an uncontrolled setting. People didn't buy DVD players en masse until they dropped below $100 and DVD's were cheaper and easier to find that VHS tapes. The whole point of these discs is that they want to charge more for the disc rather than less.
I won't argue if someone claims that HD-DVD will probably claim a much larger marketshare than Laserdisc did, but I would be astounded if it overtook DVD before something better came along.
Posted: 2006-12-08 06:05pm
by Uraniun235
Personally, I'm just fine with HD-DVD being more a high-end niche market; I think Laserdisc managed to hold out long enough for The Matrix to be printed onto LD, so it's not like comparisons to Laserdisc are a death sentence. I just hope that certain HDTV content (neoBattlestar Galactica, for me at least) makes it onto a high-def format for those who would be able to appreciate it, because I've seen neoBSG in high-def and it looks pretty.
Posted: 2006-12-08 06:20pm
by Admiral Valdemar
You can't compare HD-DVD to the VHS being replaced by DVD. There is
no real difference between DVD (especially when uprated by HDMI on an HD telly) and HD-DVD bar capacity, which just means more useless extras tacked on to the main feature.
VHS next to DVD looked a world of difference and sounded it too. DVD and HD-DVD? No one gives a shit. And that will remain until everyone has HD sets and players for cheap. Why pay a grand for HD-DVD or Blu-ray players when I can get a good DVD player for $30 today? I'm sure that slight increase in pixel count will be worth me paying a grand more for a player and buying
all my DVDs again.
Posted: 2006-12-08 06:54pm
by Spanky The Dolphin
I think Arthur and Uranium are absolutely right and I agree with the argument that HD-DVD will end up in a niche market like LaserDisc did during the 1980s and 90s, while DVD will remain the primary consumer format for at least another five or ten years. If I recall, Pioneer actually planned and expects that to happen with both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.
Overall though I that both formats were pushed out much to early (as in years) and simply aren't enough of a quality increase to justify adoption. I've seen numerous in-store demonstrations of HD-DVD on HDTVs, and I've been more impressed by the televisions themselves on their own...
Posted: 2006-12-08 07:08pm
by Arrow
The problem both formats face is that the upscalers built into HDTVs, and even AV receivers, do a good enough job of making regular DVDs look highdef. Why spend a grand on a new player and replace your collection when your shiny new HDTV will give you that image quality anyway, for "free"?
Posted: 2006-12-08 08:57pm
by Admiral Valdemar
With holographic UV discs being looked at as well, it really doesn't make that much sense to go straight to a blue laser DVD which offers only a few times more capacity. When you can have your entire movie collection on a single UV disc, people may think about that then. DVD box sets for series would be a thing of the past, though the technology needs to mature first and become cheaper given it's not simply a newer rendition of DVD technology.
And that's assuming solid-state and downloadable media don't takeover from DVD first anyway.
Posted: 2006-12-08 09:02pm
by Spanky The Dolphin
Admiral Valdemar wrote:With holographic UV discs being looked at as well,
I thought that was only being looked into for data storage, and not at all as a home video medium. I recall a statement on The Digital Bits to that effect when it was announced.
Posted: 2006-12-08 09:41pm
by Uraniun235
Admiral Valdemar wrote:And that's assuming solid-state and downloadable media don't takeover from DVD first anyway.
Solid-state storage is not progressing fast enough for that to become a reality for quite some time, seeing as I can get a 320GB hard drive for a mere $100 USD. Hard drives with spinning platters will be around for probably at least another decade if not longer.
I'm also skeptical about downloadable media taking over. There are still vast swaths of the United States where broadband access is sketchy if not unavailable, and combined with the costs of bandwidth, the movie/TV industry may not be willing to swallow the cost of losing millions of potential customers in order to drop DVD fabrication. There's also something to be said for having your movies on separate physical discs that won't get fried by a power surge or accidentally deleted by your kid.
Posted: 2006-12-08 11:14pm
by Darth Wong
Arrow wrote:The problem both formats face is that the upscalers built into HDTVs, and even AV receivers, do a good enough job of making regular DVDs look highdef. Why spend a grand on a new player and replace your collection when your shiny new HDTV will give you that image quality anyway, for "free"?
All of that bullshit doesn't really make it look high-def. The problem is that even most high-def movies don't really look high-def. There's just too much film grain and other visual problems on the average movie, which is why the difference between the high-def version of a movie and the DVD version is often rather small.
But as high-def digital video cameras become increasingly common, this should change. You'll see a ton of detail on movies shot using high-def digital technology which shows up on HD but doesn't show up on regular DVD, and those upconverting toys won't do a damned thing to simulate that level of detail. All they do is apply sharpening filters on an upscaled image. Big deal; I can do that to a picture with any image processing software but it doesn't really simulate a picture that had a higher native resolution to begin with. Not even close.
Posted: 2006-12-09 12:14am
by Arrow
Darth Wong wrote:All of that bullshit doesn't really make it look high-def. The problem is that even most high-def movies don't really look high-def. There's just too much film grain and other visual problems on the average movie, which is why the difference between the high-def version of a movie and the DVD version is often rather small.
Here's where my "good enough" comment comes from, and it has a lot of room for error. I can watch Star Wars Episode III on HBO HD and on DVD. While the HBO HD signal looks a little better, its not mind blowingly better. Since Ep 3 was all digital, its not going to have the film quality problems. The difference isn't enough to make me want to get an HD-DVD or Blu-ray player. Now, that analysis is purely based on what my own eyes show me, and its assuming that HBO is using theater quality source, and that my TV's odd resolution (13-something by 768) isn't screwing up the HD signal.
But as high-def digital video cameras become increasingly common, this should change. You'll see a ton of detail on movies shot using high-def digital technology which shows up on HD but doesn't show up on regular DVD, and those upconverting toys won't do a damned thing to simulate that level of detail. All they do is apply sharpening filters on an upscaled image. Big deal; I can do that to a picture with any image processing software but it doesn't really simulate a picture that had a higher native resolution to begin with. Not even close.
No argument the technology and detail will be superior (and that upscaling is just faking it). But will that superiority be enough to convince consumers to buy into either technology, just to watch new releases that were filmed with the new equipment? Will the price fall low enough and will a big enough library of material that can take advantage of the players be available before the next big format is out? When I look at it that way, I have to say Arthur, Uranium and Spanky are right: HD-DVD and Blu-ray are doomed to niche markets and failure.
Posted: 2006-12-09 12:21am
by Darth Wong
Arrow wrote:Here's where my "good enough" comment comes from, and it has a lot of room for error. I can watch Star Wars Episode III on HBO HD and on DVD. While the HBO HD signal looks a little better, its not mind blowingly better. Since Ep 3 was all digital, its not going to have the film quality problems. The difference isn't enough to make me want to get an HD-DVD or Blu-ray player. Now, that analysis is purely based on what my own eyes show me, and its assuming that HBO is using theater quality source, and that my TV's odd resolution (13-something by 768) isn't screwing up the HD signal.
Keep in mind that HD cable/broadcast material is
massively compressed, so you're not getting the same quality that you could theoretically get from an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player. However, having said that, the special effects people who worked on Episode III may not have projected the need to make it look good on an HDTV set. A lot of the effects in AOTC looked pretty damned dodgy in the theatre when projected with a digital camera, but fine on a relatively shaky, blurry film camera (that's the funny thing about movie theatres; the screen is huge so you think the picture quality should be amazing, but it's really not that great).
No argument the technology and detail will be superior (and that upscaling is just faking it). But will that superiority be enough to convince consumers to buy into either technology, just to watch new releases that were filmed with the new equipment? Will the price fall low enough and will a big enough library of material that can take advantage of the players be available before the next big format is out? When I look at it that way, I have to say Arthur, Uranium and Spanky are right: HD-DVD and Blu-ray are doomed to niche markets and failure.
All I can tell you is this: I saw the CGI movie "Chicken Little" on Blu-Ray through an HDTV and I was absolutely floored. It just looked
incredible. A normal DVD of the same movie, shown side by side, looks like absolute shit compared to the highdef version. However, that is a CGI movie, hence its images are razor-sharp. It's an ideal scenario. A subsequent demo of some action movie I didn't recognize produced a "ho hum" reaction.
Posted: 2006-12-09 12:23am
by Stark
CGI movies are a great example: they show off difference in display quality equally well. On a high-contrast, high-quality display, the difference in quality is fucking obvious, whereas watching a regular movie doesn't have the same impact.
The first time I saw Ice Age on an LCD television was crazy. It looked fucking AWESOME.