The Death of the (PnP)RPG Market

[Hotfoot]

Yes, this is a provocative title, but it's one that I think is appropriate. I've been mentioning to friends and in posts here my views on the RPG Market in general, and the direction I see it taking.

A few points:
Numerous smaller RPG companies have fallen on hard times as of late. Friendly Local Gaming Stores are no longer stocking many lesser known products, opting instead to stock WotC, SJG, and WW material, card games, Clix, and standard miniature gaming (largely GW).

WotC has adopted a GW model for D&D, including heavy miniatures gaming, republishing rules at fairly quick intervals, and in general doing all it can to maintain its dominant position.

Since the advent of the PC and Internet, several gaming products have been made obsolete. Most modules can easily be created by a GM with MSPAINT and Wordpad, or equivalent programs, which are pre-installed on pretty much any OS these days, to say nothing of superior versions of software for low amounts of money. For the cost of a good 5-6 supplements, one could get a program like Fractal Mapper or Campaign Cartographer and make unlimited dungeons on one's own. With a little creativity, one can make the flavor text and all that with any word processor.

Source Material supplements are easily ignored by most gamers, replaced with sometimes better material from sufficiently creative GMs. Since the advent of easy word processing, aspiring writers can easily crank out loads of material with very little effort.

The glut of games that have come out over the years have flooded the market with all manner of rules systems, and with thousands of gamers coming up with hundreds of thousands of house rules, for said systems, just about every possible variation of rules has been created. Amateur statisticians who are gamers can easily come up with new systems as needed, but really, one does not have to go far to find a system that they like, and barring that, make their own.

On top of that, let's talk about piracy. We all know that it doesn't really hurt the music and movie industries as much as they like to pretend it does, but gaming companies, with much, much smaller markets are more noticeably hurt by this. Add to this that many gamers are at least moderately competent with computers (or at least one in every group tends to be), widespread piracy within the gaming community can be brutal. Add to this the fact that gaming books have gone up in prices as of late, and were never cheap to begin with, and are targeting a group of consumers that are almost universally short on cash for all the books they want, and you have a recipe for disaster. Before, one person would buy the books, or the group would pool together, but now piracy is common. WotC is hurt the least by this, obviously, but smaller companies, such as R.Talsorian Games, Dream Pod 9, West End Games, and numerous other such outfits can be crippled by such an event, especially given how little the books usually sell.

Print on Demand alleviates some of the problem, since books can sell for lower prices and still give decent profits to the company, but because such smaller companies mean fewer shelves for Friendly Local Gaming Stores, the stores are less likely to carry them. Since the most popular things sell the best, they need to stock what sells, especially since they are in direct competition with Amazon, Borders, Barnes & Noble, Toy Stores, and to a degree, gaming shops and Best Buy. It's also a losing battle, since it's very hard for local shops to compete with chains in general, and the growing lack of specialty products is driving gamers from the Friendly Local Gaming Stores. At this point, the only thing keeping said stores open is the inclusion of gaming spaces, pay-for-play LANs, and even selling food.

Now, at the various conventions I go to, I've noticed that only in a very few does the RPG section have a good amount of activity. Most of the activity is in wargaming, board games, and card games. The RPG with the most face time, of course, is D&D, and the way the RPGA runs things (and they tend to run the bulk of the games), the game might as well be a wargame anyway.

Meanwhile, the "Indie RPG" market is something of a misnomer. Instead of creating products that compete with D&D, GURPS, or WoD, they tend to create more beer and pretzel games that can be picked up and played with minimal fuss, but also lack a bit of the depth and freedom allowed in a larger RPG.

Now, the silver lining to all of this: RPGs themselves aren't dead. Not by a long shot. People will continue to play them, and play things other than D&D, but there really won't be anything left to sell except the tools with which to build settings, campaigns, and adventures. Sure, the odd campaign setting, module, etc. might still be sold online in PDF format through DriveThruRPG, RPGNOW, and other select sites, but only the really good ones that gain momentum through word of mouth will really sell much of anything.

Now when I say that, I really mean anything outside of the big three. Even with them, WotC will soon homogenize the RPG market, with of course with the minor exception of GURPS. So long as SJG rakes in cash with their card games and such, they can keep their RPG division going forever. White Wolf, well, sure, there's a solid fanbase, but it's still fairly niche compared to the overwhelming might of D20.

I know this is fairly long, but if anyone has any comments, criticisms, or devestations of my points, please feel free.

Thread Title edited for clarity-Bean

[Zixinus]

So from Table-top RPGs everyone goes to digital ones and the companies producing the stuff are feeling the effects of that? Not surprising. High speed internet has changed the entertainment industry, and the only thing that the industry can do, is adopt.

[DPDarkPrimus]

The Internet is the future for PnP RPGs as well. It's a lot easier to get a group together to play than to find people locally.

[SilverWingedSeraph]

PnP RPGs are also much more engaging when you play them via IRC or on a message board (although I prefer IRC), at least in my experience.

[Hotfoot]

PnP RPGs are also much more engaging when you play them via IRC or on a message board (although I prefer IRC), at least in my experience.

I'm going to have to seriously disagree here. Maybe it's just my own experience, but sitting down at a table with a group of friends and slinging dice is an experience unmatched by signing on to IRC or a message board. Sure, there are other charms, but there's nothing really quite like being there.

On the other hand, it seems like the divide is getting worse. LARPs allow for people who enjoy the action and the on their feet improv acting to get outside and interact with a larger number of people (and more girls, shocker), while forums allow for more flowery prose and things like MMOs and virtual tabletops allow for more action or tactical thinking.

IRC, however, is the worst combination in my experience. You don't have the time to turn the project into a "true" writing effort like you can do in a slower-paced forum game, which means you're down to either taking FOREVER to post or just posting the basics (i.e. Farangdu moves here and attacks the orc /rolld10+4) with a little bit of flavor on the sides.

That said, things like OpenRPG can work when the group uses a voip program like Teamspeak to replicate the around the table experience, with the virtual tabletop showing positions and dice, but it's still a poor substitute for table play in my experience.

Admittedly, I am something of a purist in this regard, so take my experiences (and opinions) with a grain of salt.

As a final point, I would like to point out that pen and paper RPGs have enough stigma attached to them as is, moving completely online will pretty much regulate the existing stereotypes we've fought so hard to avoid, leaving more socially acclimated gamers to just one alternative: LARPs. I don't think I need to mention that this is a big step for most PnP RPG geeks. It's one thing to hang out with your friends and talk about how Desmond the Rogue did X, Y, or Z, it's another thing to strap on a costume and actually try to do it.

[Uraniun235]

The Internet is the future for PnP RPGs as well. It's a lot easier to get a group together to play than to find people locally.

Local RPG groups will not go away because half the fun is in the bullshitting before/during/after the game.

As a final point, I would like to point out that pen and paper RPGs have enough stigma attached to them as is, moving completely online will pretty much regulate the existing stereotypes we've fought so hard to avoid, leaving more socially acclimated gamers to just one alternative: LARPs. I don't think I need to mention that this is a big step for most PnP RPG geeks. It's one thing to hang out with your friends and talk about how Desmond the Rogue did X, Y, or Z, it's another thing to strap on a costume and actually try to do it.

I really can't see any such doomsday scenario of "nobody ever plays basic RPGs anymore, it's either online or LARPs for you!" taking place; there's going to be people out there who don't want to LARP and who don't want to play online. Even if nobody wrote for PnP any more, there's still a ton of existing material out there to draw on.

[Hotfoot]

That's rather the point I'm trying to make. I'm not suggesting that tabletop RPGs will die out on the player end, just that we're not likely to see anything other than D20, GURPS, or White Wolf in stores for the next several years. The sales of anything smaller will have to be online, in either Print on Demand or PDF formats.

And yeah, there's a huge amount of existing stuff, and with piracy being what it is, and a lot of these smaller companies dead or dying, it's going to be circling around the net for quite some time.

[The Dark]

I agree that the pen-and-paper market's in a downturn at the moment, which I think is partially due to OGL. You had a huge glut of companies form or convert quickly (Mongoose, Vanguard, Green Ronin, and Fast Forward are all ones I can think of off the top of my head), many of which were cranking out mediocre or worse product. They swamped the market. Between their driving out the small independent systems with some promise (Arrowflight and Glorantha are two I have), and the fact that they drove away their own customers with the low quality, we're currently in the post-bubble crash. I think in a couple years, some companies will begin testing the waters with new products, particularly dual-stat (D20 plus their system), taking advantage of OGL to try to gain converts to their system.

Where I live, there are two gaming stores. One is almost entirely devoted to wargaming, with GW, PP, and FoW being the big three, with some Mongoose wargames as a fourth product line. The other carries mostly D20 for RPGs, with some SJG, BT/MW, and WW, along with drabs of other systems (Call of Cthulhu, Runequest, and one or two that I've never heard of). The systems I prefer are completely unobtainable anywhere except the Internet.

[rhoenix]

My personal experiences with LARP has...not been positive, as I've seen much ego-driven drama arise, in character and out, to feel much enthusiasm for it. In theory however, I can appreciate the concept; but in my experience, I can't help but feel a bit jaded.

I refuse to play MMORPG's, because the divide between "solo'ing" and "group play" nearly always was an insurmountable gulf. Diablo 2 was the closest thing I've ever played to one, and even that had a gulf between PvP-build characters, and regular game builds.

Table-top will always hold a special place in my heart, because of the in-person interaction, the bullshitting before/after the game, and the much more organic excitement that computer gaming can come close to, but cannot match in my case.

EDIT: Forgot the word "was" in the second paragraph. I've no idea how.

[Covenant]

I've never enjoyed Tabletop gaming, as it feels extremely nerdy and I felt the necessary theatrics required for a good campaign would descend into camp--and I've never wanted to have to kill off someone's character. Don't go off and flame me for that, I just haven't liked it myself. I feel that online, the character and player blend a bit better, and it feels a little less ridiculous. Now, I'm definately not happy with the state of MMORPGs and such, as the varieties of roleplaying games you'd see out there would be the most obvious munchkin fests ever if someone put them to paper.

Anyway, I say this with great sadness, as I really do have a nice big stack of RPG materials over here and would direly like to play with someone. I've just always been disappointed with people's levels of creativity when it comes to playing their own characters or others--mine is similar to Rhoe's experience with LARP, which I've never done. Too much drama. So while I mourn the passing of PnP gaming, I'm hoping it's only temporary.

[Hotfoot]

The Dark

DP9 tried Dual-Statting, and making OGL supplements. It didn't seem to work well for them, as virtually no FLGS in the NJ/NY area carries their stuff anymore. Add to this the fact that many companies have direct ordering online, or through Amazon, B&N, and Borders, and the FLGS has little reason to try stocking the stuff anymore. Plus look at DP9's current agenda, it almost completely revolves around Blitz with very little in the way of RPG material, with most of that being handled through Aurora. It wouldn't surprise me if the next RPG supplement DP9 put out contained some choicer bits from Aurora with material that they've been sitting on for a while, released via DriveThruRPG and limited POD. Not that it's a bad thing for that to happen, but I seriously doubt we'll see it in stores. This, of course, can also be hindered by the widespread piracy of gaming books.

I think what's honestly going to happen is that D20 is going to hegemonize the market somewhat, and that any new or innovative settings are going to be D20 or fall flat. It's easier to introduce a setting with a variation of the D20 rules than to try dual-statting, as that will tend to confuse players. Once a particular setting has a large enough following, it can make its own ruleset or adopt another one, but that seems unlikely for the time being.

[Jade Falcon]

I tend to agree that the gaming market is stagnating somewhat. (Self Plug) I'm even part of a team doing a new tabletop RPG at the moment, and I'd like to think it will do well. However, there's a lot of products out there.

There's two categories that I think stand out, these haven't just been around in recent years, but have always been around.

The great sounding game background that doesn't work.....Let's be honest, how many times have any of us heard the universe of a game that just seems damned cool and innovative, but the game either doesn't sell because it's too different, or sometimes because a really crappy system has been tacked to it. For instance, I used to think Twilight 2000 had a good background, but GDW's house rules just weren't up to much. Then you get games like "Solid", the D20 game based on the Blaxploitation films of the 70's. The books makes for interesting and amusing reading, but I can't see it working as a game unless you get the right lunatics in the right mood.

The tired old background. This is my second category. Cookie cutter fantasy worlds, predictable sci-fi, and so on, where every stereotype known to man exists. These aren't always bad games as such.

Hotfoot...are the card games STILL making such an impact. I know for a wee while after Magic the profiteering came out every man and his dog were making a card game, most of which were tripe, but I thought the market might have calmed down. Same with miniatures games, though I suppose I'm proved wrong with Haloclix or whatever its called.

I must have been one of the few that just never liked the White Wolf games.

[Vehrec]

The Internet is the future for PnP RPGs as well. It's a lot easier to get a group together to play than to find people locally.

Local RPG groups will not go away because half the fun is in the bullshitting before/during/after the game.

Half the fun? I think its a bit more than that. Oh the games we used to play. Killing Neutral Good rangers because they were sneaking around. Our Warlock charging into melee against a guy holding an artifact. And the LULZ that resulted the day my brother rolled out his new Druid, 'Mr. Berries'.

"Make a wisdom check to disbelieve the birds."
". . .2"
"Yeah, go wander around the woods for ten years, you got too confused talking to the birds. Then try again"
"1"
At this point, all four of us, my brother and the DM were all laughing so hard we could barely throw the dice a third time. That poor druid got so OLD because he spent so much time listening to those birds before he even got into the Party.

[Hotfoot]

Hotfoot...are the card games STILL making such an impact. I know for a wee while after Magic the profiteering came out every man and his dog were making a card game, most of which were tripe, but I thought the market might have calmed down. Same with miniatures games, though I suppose I'm proved wrong with Haloclix or whatever its called.

I must have been one of the few that just never liked the White Wolf games.

Card games are more than just the CCGs these days. Games like Munchkin are hugely popular as they are quickly played and all sorts of fun. Anyone can play them, they're fast to learn, and fun to play, plus they don't cost much to buy or make.

Meanwhile, Magic, oddly, is still going pretty strong, as is Pokemon and Yu-gi-oh.

And yeah, Clix and the D&D sets are still pretty strong markets. AT-43 made decent headway in the states, but 40K still holds strong due to GW's marketing techniques.

[The Dark]

AT-43 made decent headway in the states, but 40K still holds strong due to GW's marketing techniques.

AT-43's also hurting because of Rackham's financial problems. I forget what it's called in the EU, but it's the closest equivalent to a US warning of impending Chapter 11.

DP9 tried Dual-Statting, and making OGL supplements. It didn't seem to work well for them, as virtually no FLGS in the NJ/NY area carries their stuff anymore. Add to this the fact that many companies have direct ordering online, or through Amazon, B&N, and Borders, and the FLGS has little reason to try stocking the stuff anymore. Plus look at DP9's current agenda, it almost completely revolves around Blitz with very little in the way of RPG material, with most of that being handled through Aurora. It wouldn't surprise me if the next RPG supplement DP9 put out contained some choicer bits from Aurora with material that they've been sitting on for a while, released via DriveThruRPG and limited POD. Not that it's a bad thing for that to happen, but I seriously doubt we'll see it in stores. This, of course, can also be hindered by the widespread piracy of gaming books.

I agree completely - dual-statting didn't work for DP9, and Jock and Nick are currently focused on HGB! and getting JCB! started. Aurora was a great idea, since it's a fanzine, but vetted by the official writers to avoid cotradicting what is (or will be) canon. I'm doing some work on an article for Aurora myself, for GKModern. I think a big part of DP9's problem was that they stopped publishing for a couple years. Between the collapse of City of Clocks, writers being sent to war, and Marc-Alex leaving after he got engaged (plus the boom of DP9Ent), the publishing kind of fell by the wayside.

That said, I do think some new companies will still try it. It didn't seem to work badly for Fading Suns or Deadlands (although FS was always a marginal market at best), and I think up-and-comers may try to do dual-stat to draw the D20 crowd to their game and convince them to use their system as well. If it's well thought-out, a good game designer can make it fairly simple to convert between two systems, so every D20 supplement would (with some work) then become a supplement for their game as well.

Oh, and AT-ATs suck in Heavy Gear, because the SW RPG is ridiculously underpowered