Gabe Newell: Windows 8 is a 'catastrophe' for PC biz

[TronPaul]

Gabe Newell: Windows 8 is a 'catastrophe' for PC biz

Analysis First it was Gartner, now Gabe Newell, the former Microsoft executive and billionaire computer games baron behind Half-Life, has laid into Windows 8.

Newell, who oversaw the first three versions of Windows under Bill Gates among other roles during his 13 years at the software giant, has reportedly called the touchscreen-friendly Windows 8 a “catastrophe for everyone in the PC space”.

Speaking at Casual Connect in Seattle, Washington, All Things D rather meekly reports Newell prophesied the death of some companies that today are happily churning out PCs running the Windows operating system.

He is reported to have told the audience: “I think we’ll lose some of the top-tier PC OEMs [manufacturers], who will exit the market. I think margins will be destroyed for a bunch of people. If that’s true, then it will be good to have alternatives to hedge against that eventuality.”

That alternative, apparently, is the open-source operating system Linux. Newell explained why his company – Valve Software, which he co-founded with ex-Microsoftie Mike Harrington in 1996 – is interested in putting its games on something other than Windows. He also wants to make titles in Valve’s online store Steam available for Linux users. In The Reg’s recent live chat with the boss of Linux distribution Ubuntu, Mark Shuttleworth, there were plenty of penguin-powered punters hoping for a Ubuntu-Steam tie-up.

“We want to make it as easy as possible for the 2,500 games on Steam to run on Linux as well. It’s a hedging strategy,” Newell is reported to have said.

Steam is believed to make up 70 per cent of the digital game distribution market with 40 million users on its books. Today it runs on Windows, Mac OS X, iOS and Android.

Newell’s tongue-lashing came after a Gartner analyst got everyone bent out of shape with a single word summary of Windows 8 when a touchscreen isn’t available: "Bad".

For once, it was a mercifully succinct comment from an industry analyst. However, the Gartner man has since retracted the statement, claiming he was taken out of context. But it reminded everyone that analysts' advice and views are partisan and often paid for: if their declarations are not slyly touting their services to vendors, then their words have been bought by companies to trumpet the brilliance of some new product or strategy.

This is why Microsoft pays IDC to write nice vapid things about how each new version of Windows will produce multi-million-dollar market opportunities around the world.

Question is, do the words of an ex-Microsoftie have more credibility?
Brass rubbed out

A lot of top brass has left Microsoft of late: product managers, marketing and communications types, business execs and brains such as Ray Ozzie without a portfolio to speak of – all gone in the last two years or so.

The reason has been the creeping Sinofskization of Microsoft – a philosophy that strips out a management layer between engineers and those in charge of product strategy. It’s named after Windows chief Steven Sinofsky, who even has a little orange book on how to run things.

Those who left didn’t have a future in the new Microsoft, given the star of Sinofsky is in ascendant: first came Windows 7, next touch, the Metro user interface and ARM processor support in Windows 8. When I’ve chatted to these people they haven't spoken out against Microsoft or Sinofsky in public. Arguably, they couldn’t because they might be dismissed as having an axe to grind.

Newell, though, jumped ship nearly 20 years ago - and on his own terms. He has enjoyed considerable success, and done so by working with Windows: his road towards earning billions in gaming started with Half Life that hit Windows PCs first in 1998, two years after Valve was created. Ten years later, in 2008, Half-Life landed a Guinness World Record for the best selling first-person shooter on the PC with eight million units sold. Since then the franchise has sold more than 16 million units.

Valve was a poster child for the symbiotic nature of the relationship between Microsoft and Windows on one side and independent software makers on the other. Games, above anything else, have helped sell consumer PCs by the container ship-load. Games written for Windows have cemented the operating system into computers in people's homes and the offices of those actually building the game worlds.

What broke the symbiotic link?

Newell was hired by Steve Ballmer in 1983 and spent 13 key years at Microsoft. These were important because they laid the foundations of a successful PC software business that became a successful apps, server and tools giant.

You could argue he’s the old guard who doesn’t “get” touch, and that times have moved on and Newell should go trade memories with Bill Gates over tea sometime.

Also, Newell wasn’t pulled up on his comments: which OEMs did he mean and why? There aren’t too many PC manufacturers left today, thanks to Dell and Intel, which helped drive many rivals out of business and were pulled up by the authorities as a result. Gone in the UK are Elonex, Tiny and Evesham; among those left are Viglen and Stone.

That said Windows 8 does change things for OEMs on a number of fronts: it sees Microsoft exert control over the hardware like never before by wielding UEFI secure boot, while Windows 8 on ARM hardware rules out x86 makers who are alien to ARM architectures. Also, Microsoft has floated its Surface tablet-cum-laptop, a reference design it wants PC makers to follow and that it will manufacture and sell direct itself as an added incentive to make PC manufacturers fall into line.

The whole ethos of Windows 8 goes against what has been Windows's success for decades: it might be closed-source code, but you were pretty much welcome to put it on any PC hardware you wanted. It was designed to be the exact opposite of Apple’s hardware control freakery. That’s one reason why Windows sits on 90 per cent of the world's desktops while Apple perches on six per cent.

Whether all this marginalises PC makers and drives them out of business remains to be seen. Certainly Microsoft’s new requirements for future computers could act as a deterrent to new entrants - never mind the more opportunistic players who don’t have a 30-odd year relationship with Microsoft and can’t be bothered with the overhead of new onerous restrictions and rules.

What should be more troubling for Microsoft is this: that somebody behind one of the most successful games franchises of all time, who has moved with the times - building first for Windows and then for Playstation - is now looking at Linux because of his concerns about Windows 8.
To touch, or not to touch

Like other third-party software factories, Valve will be evaluating whether it should bother turning titles built for x86 gear that are connected to mice and keyboards into something for touchy gadgets running Windows 8. Newell is cool on touch, calling it a short-term idea compared to the mouse and keyboard that have dominated computer input for 25 years.

Games on the PC helped establish Windows and Valve. Windows 8 may put PC makers out of business – and truth be told, few will shed a tear – but the problem for Microsoft will be what if more software makers such as Valve turn to Linux rather than stick with Windows 8. This could be something that finally helps establish Linux as an alternative to Windows on laptops and PCs.

Steam is the place where Newell’s company today releases all its titles. Valve has been a paid-up member of the Windows third-party developer ecosystem. If Valve goes, then so goes the ecosystem; if the ecosystem goes, then it’s game over for Windows 8’s easy mass-market adoption.

This off the heels of an analyst calling Windows 8 "bad". source

[Vendetta]

I think this possibly overstates the impact of games on the desktop operating system market and, indeed, the OEM pc maker market.

Really, the reason 90% of computers have Windows on is because that's what Microsoft Office runs on, and although there are mostly functional alternatives they're never 100% identical implementations, so business use is locked in to the real deal for the sake of interoperability.

That said, the massive UI changes in windows 8 are going to cause much dissatisfaction and grumbling, as well as making it a pain in the arse to support (because the start screen is so customisable there is no guaranteed fixed point of reference on it or the desktop, if you can even get to the latter)

Big name OEMs will just poddle along selling the same email-and-office-and-web browser boxes they always have, with Windows on because of sweet volume license deals and ease of support.

And they'll stick to windows 7 for business clients (those that aren't on XP still).

[TheFeniX]

IIRC Enterprise is usually behind the times on OS upgrades, for good reason. Back when Server 2000 hit the scene a lot of IT professionals lost their jobs due to Microsoft's hilariously broken upgrade system from NT4.0. Don't get me wrong, any tech who believes MS's line about "seemless upgrade capability" and doesn't backup any domain settings, deserves to lose his/her job. But the actual process involved in upgrading an NT domain to Active Directory was fucking atrocious. They fixed this very well in Server 2003.

On the desktop end, I could see companies just flat-out skipping the OS like was done with Windows ME and Vista. Vista was so fucking terrible Dell started offering free copies of XP so users could roll back their already purchased computers. They pretty much quit offering Vista by default or gave people recovery CDs with both XP and Vista on them. HP started offering the same thing when I quit working IT in around 2007.

I don't see how this is so terrible when PC manufacturers have already shown they can and will avoid new MS operating systems if their customers complain enough (especially when they see "Buy a $500 touchscreen for full capability!"). We'll likely just have another orphan OS like Vista, ME, and 98 (first-edition).

[Vendetta]

IIRC Enterprise is usually behind the times on OS upgrades, for good reason. Back when Server 2000 hit the scene a lot of IT professionals lost their jobs due to Microsoft's hilariously broken upgrade system from NT4.0. Don't get me wrong, any tech who believes MS's line about "seemless upgrade capability" and doesn't backup any domain settings, deserves to lose his/her job. But the actual process involved in upgrading an NT domain to Active Directory was fucking atrocious. They fixed this very well in Server 2003.

It's not just that, business IT budgets tend to be fairly ruthless when it comes to cost benefit analysis. Even if it was absolutely guaranteed to be as smooth an upgrade as Microsoft claim it would still cost a fair chunk to roll out an upgrade for any medium or large enterprise, so unless there's some kind of new requirement on the systems (after all, the current systems already do what you're doing now), there's no reason to do the upgrade).

I can't help but think that this is at least somewhat motivated by the fact that Microsoft are making the new Windows Marketplace a more central feature of the OS. Gabe doesn't like Windows 8 not because of nebulous doom for system builders but because it will compete with Steam.

(Though I think we're a little way off from the point where he really has to worry. When the Marketplace model is sufficiently mature and they start giving the OS away for free*, that's when Gabe needs to start thinking about writing Half-Life 3)


* You might think that's madness and that day will never come, but people are getting more used to the model that the OS and core software is free thanks to smartphones/tablets and consoles, and we've just seen Mountain Lion release for £14)

[Enigma]

I'm not worried about Win8 as it will be a failure of sorts. It falls under the "suck" category as it is a test bed OS. New shiny but a clunker. Win9 on the other hand will be the one to get.

Let me put it this way, 95 = Suck. 98 = Good. ME = Suck. XP = Good. Vista = Suck. Win 7 = Good.
All of the Win OS that fall under the suck category were ones that introduced "new shiny" (new tech, options, blah-de-blah), whereas the good Win OSes were cleaned up, improved, bug-checked (to a degree), improved functionality and so forth.

This is just my opinion BTW, but I do stand by it. 8 will suck but when 9 rolls around, all the problems and issues with 8 will have been fixed\improved\etc.. making 9 a better OS overall. Then it starts over with 10. lol

[Stark]

You're an idiot.

Is this the same Gabe Newell who was proud of analysing his business performance by 'profit divided by employee'?

Ps saying Steam 'runs' on iOS is pretty funny.

[DaveJB]

Let me put it this way, 95 = Suck. 98 = Good. ME = Suck. XP = Good. Vista = Suck. Win 7 = Good.
All of the Win OS that fall under the suck category were ones that introduced "new shiny" (new tech, options, blah-de-blah), whereas the good Win OSes were cleaned up, improved, bug-checked (to a degree), improved functionality and so forth.

From what I remember at the time, the general feeling was that 95 (at least in its OSR2 incarnation) was the good OS, and the first edition of 98 was a bug-ridden mess that was hampered by Microsoft going overboard with the browser integration and not allowing you to disable it without hacks.

Which, funnily enough, seems to be a very similar situation to Windows 8. For all the comparisons with Windows 95's UI change, people seem to forget that with that OS you still had the option to use a Windows 3.x style program manager as your main interface, even if Microsoft didn't exactly go out of their way to advertise that fact.

[TheFeniX]

It's not just that, business IT budgets tend to be fairly ruthless when it comes to cost benefit analysis. Even if it was absolutely guaranteed to be as smooth an upgrade as Microsoft claim it would still cost a fair chunk to roll out an upgrade for any medium or large enterprise, so unless there's some kind of new requirement on the systems (after all, the current systems already do what you're doing now), there's no reason to do the upgrade).

Good point, and even then: they usually won't go for the latest and greatest. Even after Vista popped, a lot of businesses I worked with were upgrading from 2000 (or even 98) to XP. As for the money part: the price of XP dropped nicely as well.

Let me put it this way, 95 = Suck. 98 = Good. ME = Suck. XP = Good. Vista = Suck. Win 7 = Good.
All of the Win OS that fall under the suck category were ones that introduced "new shiny" (new tech, options, blah-de-blah), whereas the good Win OSes were cleaned up, improved, bug-checked (to a degree), improved functionality and so forth.

You left out 2000 Pro which was one of MSs more stable releases. And 98fe and 95RevA were fucking awful. It wasn't until SE and RevB (I think, it's been years) for 98 and 95 (and numerous updates) respectively that the operating systems become somewhat stable. And let's not forget how much of a shit-fest XP vanilla was. SP1 made it even worse. It wasn't until SP2 that XP became worth upgrading to over 2000Pro.

By contrast, Windows 7 was released out of the box as a solid OS. It shouldn't be a surprise though as it's basically VistaSE.

[xthetenth]

I've been using Windows 8 on my laptop for months now and I vastly prefer it to the point that even if I'm mainly going to be gaming I'll use my laptop instead of my desktop running 7 with hardware entirely better than my laptop unless I want to play a game not installed on my laptop (equivalent SSDs and better in every other way, with a HDD full of games). I'm finding the doom and gloom kind of funny, especially from people who just so happen to be running what amounts to an app store for windows looking at a windows version with an app store. Gee.

But I've been sold on it since I realized that with an SSD my laptop boots in about four seconds and the search in 8 is much faster since the display of the results as you type is large enough and segregated enough that you can actually tap windows, hit three keys and know to hit enter, because it's just worrying about programs and not displaying the results in 12pt in the corner of your screen. The start screen having enough room for pinned programs to get all the ones I usually use rather than just six or so that never has what I need reliably enough to bother doesn't hurt matters, and it being windows 7 in basically every other way really doesn't hurt.

[Zaune]

I've been using Windows 8 on my laptop for months now and I vastly prefer it to the point that even if I'm mainly going to be gaming I'll use my laptop instead of my desktop running 7 with hardware entirely better than my laptop unless I want to play a game not installed on my laptop (equivalent SSDs and better in every other way, with a HDD full of games).

Is that with or without a touchscreen? Because I find Microsoft's inability to leave the UI the hell alone between versions annoying enough when I'm not expected to shell out several hundred quid extra for a new monitor to get whatever (highly subjective) benefits the new setup brings.

[weemadando]

Yeah, this couldn't possibly be about the fact that an integrated app/game store is central to the Windows 8 strategy.

It must be about ui or some philosophical management issue.

[Stark]

Remember when nerds screeched about the ribbon in office?

[weemadando]

I. Love. The. Ribbon.

Fuck you haters.

[DaveJB]

Yeah, this couldn't possibly be about the fact that an integrated app/game store is central to the Windows 8 strategy.

It shouldn't be. Microsoft already has their own downloadable game store for Windows; having it integrated into the OS probably isn't going to improve its marketshare that much when you consider how entrenched Steam already is.

Of course, Newell seems to be in full-on Chicken Little mode judging by his predictions of top-tier OEMs going out of business, so maybe he really is worried Microsoft are going to drink his milkshake.

[weemadando]

There's a massive difference between shitty second party malfunctioning abandonware like GFWL and Zune Marketplace that have to be hunted down and installed and reinstalled constantly because they're so crappy and buggy and a CENTRAL CORE CONCEPT of your OS being a fully integrated market.

[DaveJB]

Maybe. But Steam has a nine year headstart, and odds are that the vast majority of PC gamers have a library of games that, assuming they even bother to upgrade to Windows 8 in the first place, they won't be in a hurry to drop. Unless Microsoft manage to do something truly amazing with the integrated gaming store, they're unlikely to pose a serious threat to Steam with regard to the bigger titles simply because people are likely to carry on doing the same stuff as they have been for the last several years.

Indie games are a different matter, as OS X's integrated apps store (which I keep forgetting is there, since I only recently upgraded from 10.5) is chock-full of indie titles, far more so than the OS X version of Steam is, and I expect it to be a similar matter with Windows 8's app store. Whether that'll make a serious dent in Valve's bottom line I'm really not sure about, though I can see MS taking at least some of their revenue away.

[Netko]

I've been using Windows 8 on my laptop for months now and I vastly prefer it to the point that even if I'm mainly going to be gaming I'll use my laptop instead of my desktop running 7 with hardware entirely better than my laptop unless I want to play a game not installed on my laptop (equivalent SSDs and better in every other way, with a HDD full of games).

Is that with or without a touchscreen? Because I find Microsoft's inability to leave the UI the hell alone between versions annoying enough when I'm not expected to shell out several hundred quid extra for a new monitor to get whatever (highly subjective) benefits the new setup brings.

It works fine without a touchscreen and once you get over the fact that the program launcher (start screen) takes over the whole screen its actually more functional as xthetenth noted. For all the screeching about touchscreens, the classic mouse interface works and works well in Metro, and what compromises existed in the first public previews were mostly fixed by the latest.

I've been putting the preview versions on all my computers actually (none of which sadly have touch) - its as rock solid as Win7, consumes less resources on its own, has the potential to be excellent for hybrid devices (dockable tablets, hybrid laptop/tablet computers etc.) with the, admittedly split-personality, desktop and Metro interfaces, while if you are on a classic desktop you just open the desktop (exactly one click) and you can forget about the new touch-friendly stuff except for standard start menu functionality which, as noted, is actually better once you get over the conceptual differences.

I'm in the camp that Newell is seeing a not so bright future for him in which casual software purchasing explodes as it did on the iOS while on Windows its still actually struggling compared to what it can be - think of all the not computer savvy people you know which are deathly afraid of installing anything because they are conceptually afraid of running something called an installer; which is not really helped by warnings not to run anything from the Internet because it might be virus-ridden and such - its just too much conceptual overhead for a lot of people, especially since they have, probably unbackedup, personal documents and such on the computer. A curated, known-safe, you-can-"run"-this-program-safely-immediately-after-purchase store has a lot of potential - and in a couple of years, you have a generation of Windows users used to getting their software from the built-in store. All the game developers will be there because the barriers will be even lower then Steam and at that point you better hope that your fringe benefits (which are all in the focus and community aspects - the actual downloading mechanism in terms of reinstalling and such is going to be even better in the built in store) outweigh the benefit of being the default install. And we all know how much of an advantage that is for Internet Explorer...

[Netko]

Maybe. But Steam has a nine year headstart, and odds are that the vast majority of PC gamers have a library of games that, assuming they even bother to upgrade to Windows 8 in the first place, they won't be in a hurry to drop. Unless Microsoft manage to do something truly amazing with the integrated gaming store, they're unlikely to pose a serious threat to Steam with regard to the bigger titles simply because people are likely to carry on doing the same stuff as they have been for the last several years.

Indie games are a different matter, as OS X's integrated apps store (which I keep forgetting is there, since I only recently upgraded from 10.5) is chock-full of indie titles, far more so than the OS X version of Steam is, and I expect it to be a similar matter with Windows 8's app store. Whether that'll make a serious dent in Valve's bottom line I'm really not sure about, though I can see MS taking at least some of their revenue away.

Think long term. The people I described also contain a lot of console gamers which are not PC gamers (in the traditional sense) precisely because the PC gaming is too daunting for them in the technical sense. That is changing, on the one hand, with PCs getting powerful enough that any can probably run most games thus not requiring to have a understanding of hardware specs and capabilities. On the other, you need convenience (a safe and simple experience). And that is exactly what the built-in store brings - and its built on the same model as the mobile stores so its conceptually familiar. Installing a separate client (Steam) with a separate account then using browser-based payout where you have to input additional passwords if you use Paypal is not.

Then also think about the new generations - gaming is still in its infancy; the first really big wave of gamers is only in their late twenties/early thirties - there are a lot of generations still to come and they are, in all likelyhood as seen up until now, going to go for convenience.

Its not going to happen overnight (or even likely in the Win8 lifetime as the flagship OS) but long term its a extreme threat to Steam.

[Stark]

Why does using any MS marketplace require users to 'drop' their steam games?

I'll give you a hint; it doesn't. The market being so captured is a huge lol - especially given the most common complaints I see about other services are WAH WAH WHY DON'T THEY SHOW UP IN STEAM - but it's obviously quite possible to use multiple distributors for games, however much fat people might complain. It isn't even about TAKING STEAMS REVENUE AWAY OMG GIVE IT BACK, because several other marketplaces exist on PC, even without utilising patented Valve technology for literally selling nothing. There's a lot of room in the market, and I think it's pretty clear Valve knows that even if their legion of grazing cows don't.

In related news I'd probably be fine replacing my desktop with a Surface or similar Win8 ultratablet and never looking back, so I welcome the UI along with all it's inevitable problems. I just never learned to hate and fear change.

[DaveJB]

Think long term. The people I described also contain a lot of console gamers which are not PC gamers (in the traditional sense) precisely because the PC gaming is too daunting for them in the technical sense. That is changing, on the one hand, with PCs getting powerful enough that any can probably run most games thus not requiring to have a understanding of hardware specs and capabilities. On the other, you need convenience (a safe and simple experience). And that is exactly what the built-in store brings - and its built on the same model as the mobile stores so its conceptually familiar. Installing a separate client (Steam) with a separate account then using browser-based payout where you have to input additional passwords if you use Paypal is not.

Then also think about the new generations - gaming is still in its infancy; the first really big wave of gamers is only in their late twenties/early thirties - there are a lot of generations still to come and they are, in all likelyhood as seen up until now, going to go for convenience.

Its not going to happen overnight (or even likely in the Win8 lifetime as the flagship OS) but long term its a extreme threat to Steam.

Well, that ties into what I said earlier - that the Win8 App Store's biggest chance of success is to exploit the market for casual and indie titles, something which Steam isn't doing quite as well as they could right now. However, that'd put it in a different market segment to what Steam mostly caters to (unless they make a lot more money from the indie games than they're letting on), so all the talk about Newell being scared because MS are going to roll in and squish Steam like a bug is... well, maybe he is scared that's going to happen, but there doesn't seem to be much of a logical basis for it.

If anything, I could actually see Origin posing more of a direct threat to Steam in the long-term, assuming EA ever get off their backsides and sort out its various problems.

[Stark]

Since he's both catastrophically stupid and extremely greedy, all it has to do is reduce revenue growth and it's a concern. Surely you don't thi k Valve should ignore every competitor that isn't about to totally destroy Steam RIGHT NOW? Given how much of Steam's design and success is built around locking people in and selling them nothings they'll never even use, it's pretty obvious how they'd react to any suggestion of alternatives.

[DaveJB]

Surely you don't thi k Valve should ignore every competitor that isn't about to totally destroy Steam RIGHT NOW

Of course not. I just don't think it should be assumed that OS integration is going to be some sort of insurmountable advantage that Steam (and Origin, and the other services) are going to have no form of defence against in the long-term. Being bundled with Windows helped Internet Explorer dominate the browser wars, certainly, but it didn't help MSN a whole lot during the time when it was actually an ISP.

[xthetenth]

Because someone asked, my use of win 8 has been with a laptop with an SSD that occasionally gets a second screen plugged in. In comparison to win 7 on a desktop with a similar SSD, I've noticed the following main improvements:
-Less than half the boot time (about 4 seconds)
-File copy and task manger both offer more and more useful information
-Searching from the start screen feels like it responds faster and it's much easier to tell when what you want is up top to tap enter because of a much larger font not tucked in the corner with settings and stuff crowding matters.
-The start screen offers enough room to pin all your frequently used apps rather than the six or so that're probably already pinned to your taskbar
-Taskbars and hot corners on each screen in case you feel like clicking things with a two monitor setup but don't feel like mousing all the way over to the primary screen.

The downside I've noticed is that shut down and the like are tucked in a different place, which is annoying the first time but no harder to reach, and that control panel being reached by search or right clicking in the lower left is non-obvious and could probably use being pinned to the start screen. I know there's a way through the settings to reach it that's easier but it's a lot of clicks.

[White Haven]

Could you elaborate on file copy and task manager, X?

[xthetenth]

Yeah, although I'll be better able to when I'm back to my computer. The task manager shows your current utilization of CPU, RAM, your hard drives, and your network connections. The copy dialog is pretty much the same sort of graph of the file transfer rate. The other main thing is that the list of all active programs shows the consumption of each resource, and the background behind each of those numbers is colored with the shade showing what fraction of the resource it's using.

I believe the way it's set up also has the programs listed with the ability to expand to see their child processes. Finally startup programs are listed there which I really appreciate since it's the one thing I consistently have to look up every time I use it.

I'll show it to you on Skype tonight if you want. There may be a few errors or omissions, I haven't been on my computer for a week or so.