Good news: Preorders are declining.

[bilateralrope]

Preorders declining industry-wide - Hirshberg

By Brendan Sinclair
Preorders declining industry-wide - Hirshberg

Tue 05 Aug 2014 9:35pm GMT / 5:35pm EDT / 2:35pm PDT

Activision Publishing president says reservations are no longer the most important pre-launch performance predictor

Bungie's upcoming shooter Destiny is on track to be the most preordered new intellectual property in gaming history, but Activision Publishing president and CEO Eric Hirshberg isn't putting as much stock in that as one might expect. Speaking to investors during a post-earning conference call today, Hirshberg said preorders just don't mean as much as they used to.

"It's also important to sort of reset expectations as it relates to preorders overall," Hirshberg said. "You guys can see the same thing we see industry-wide, which is that there's been sort of a secular downturn as it relates to preorders. We think that's happening due to a number of factors: Things like increased digital consumption, particularly on the next-gen consoles; titles being widely available on day one; and the decline overall for demand of software on the previous gen consoles."

As a result, Hirshberg said other metrics like awareness and purchase intent have become even more important than the number of preorders. Fortunately for Activision, Hirshberg said both of those measures are at all-time highs and climbing for Destiny when compared to any other new intellectual property at this point ahead of its release.

Later in the call, Hirshberg discussed Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare preorders, saying the series is "not immune" to the downward trend. However, he expects the series to lead the industry in reservations once again this year. He also noted that purchase intent for Advanced Warfare is significantly above last year's Call of Duty: Ghosts, and "actually in line with our past top performing titles."

Hopefully gamers in general are starting to realize that preorders do not benefit them in any way. The only people who benefit from preorders are the developers and publishers, because they get money before people get to see if the game matches the advertising.

[Phillip Hone]

If it's a developer I like and trust and want to help, I'll do it. That's why I got The Witcher 3. I didn't pre-order Company of Heroes 2 because I wasn't sure it would turn out right. At first, it sucked. I eventually got it on sale for 1/4 of its pre-order price. A few months later, Relic worked really hard and made it radically better, so after that they regained my trust and I pre-ordered the expansion that was coming out, and that turned out to be awesome.

In general I think pre-orders are stupid, though. They only make sense if you have complete faith in the developers and want to help them - the consumer benefit is pretty meh.

At least they're not as terrible a practice as having a "deluxe addition" for an extra $15 that doesn't even include a fraction of the game's DLC that will come out in the first month. It's like Stephen Colbert's "Colbert Platinum" routine where he tells the people who are "only Colbert Gold Status" to turn off their TVs.

[bilateralrope]

If it's a developer I like and trust and want to help, I'll do it.

How does preordering help the developer more than buying on release day ?

The usual bonuses I see for preorders are:
- A discount on the purchase price. Which can't help the developer as you are paying less than if you bought on release day.
- DLC or other games that the release day purchases will be able to purchase seperatly. So, again, you're paying less.
- Content exclusive to the preorder. Which you aren't paying any extra for, even though it probably cost something to produce it.

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers. Not for games that are guaranteed to come out. Games on Kickstarter are a different story as they might not come out without your support.

Where did you preorder The Witcher 3 ?
Because where you purchased it does make a difference when you're talking about supporting the developers.

[InsaneTD]

I've never seen a pre-order for cheaper then release day prices. More often then not, pre-orders are actually more, but pre-orders do normally have some kind of bonus for having done so.

[bilateralrope]

I've never seen a pre-order for cheaper then release day prices. More often then not, pre-orders are actually more, but pre-orders do normally have some kind of bonus for having done so.

It's quite common on Steam. For example The Witcher 3 has a 20% discount that expires at the same time it's released.
It doesn't always happen, but it happens regularly.

Could I get some examples of preorders costing more ?

[InsaneTD]

Ah, I haven't pre ordered on steam before. I've always gone into game stores to pre-order.

[Grumman]

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers.

It means they get your money even if the product is crap. But even if the game is good and people would be buying it anyway, getting paid now is always better than getting paid tomorrow - both for the money itself and to convince your bosses and/or creditors that you're a good investment.

[bilateralrope]

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers.

It means they get your money even if the product is crap. But even if the game is good and people would be buying it anyway, getting paid now is always better than getting paid tomorrow - both for the money itself and to convince your bosses and/or creditors that you're a good investment.

Ok, it does help the developers producing crap.

As for the developers producing decent games, the developers that people like Mongoose "trust and want to help", how many of them are in a position where the games release is uncertain when they open up preorders ?

[Lord Revan]

tbh only games I've pre-ordered have been Blizzard ones as those even when disapointing have been at least semi-decent (aka they may not have as good as I wanted but I didn't feel like I got cheated), everything else I wait and see.

[Borgholio]

I only recall ever actually pre-ordering two games. Civilization 5 and Master of Orion 3. The former did have a fair number of issues but it matured in to a good game so I don't really regret pre-ordering it. The latter on the other hand...

[Simon_Jester]

If it's a developer I like and trust and want to help, I'll do it.

How does preordering help the developer more than buying on release day ?

The usual bonuses I see for preorders are:
- A discount on the purchase price. Which can't help the developer as you are paying less than if you bought on release day.
- DLC or other games that the release day purchases will be able to purchase seperatly. So, again, you're paying less.
- Content exclusive to the preorder. Which you aren't paying any extra for, even though it probably cost something to produce it.

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers.

By this logic, why would the company even make such an offer? Surely they would not knowingly offer something that results in them being worse off than if they'd kept their mouth shut.

[Lagmonster]

Maybe the phenomenon of 'handing people money for product that doesn't exist in full form yet' has gone down on consoles. On PC, at least, between Steam Early Access and indie games releasing in Alpha and open betas for every upcoming MMO and Kickstarter backing of even semi-big titles, I feel kinda under deluge by pre-order gaming culture.

[Brother-Captain Gaius]

The PC early release model actually has its uses, however. You often get the full game at a discount, in addition to immediate access to whatever development build is currently available, if you are so inclined (and you don't have to participate in the pre-release builds if you don't want to). Those that do poke around with the unfinished game are often in a position to help give it further testing and feedback, and assuming the developer is competent, can actually incorporate the useful feedback and ignore the useless whining.

I mean, the system is entirely opt-in, so I'm not seeing the downside. True, the Kickstarter model often has outrageous early access prices, but that's due to the way Kickstarter backing works and not necessarily indicative of the developer trying to charge unfair prices prior to release. I'd argue that that many of these pre-release models are going to be good things in many ways, as they're essentially cutting out the worst middle-man (the publisher) entirely. Traditionally, publishers were not only a distribution partner but also the primary financial backer and, inevitably, owner of the developer - which has never ended well for the end user. Now, because of these new business models developers are becoming increasingly independent of publisher oversight and control, as modern distribution services like Steam or GOG act only as distributors and exercise no creative or financial control over the game development itself.

[Covenant]

As a dev who talks to other devs, we like pre-orders because it helps generate buzz and secure that important early money. It's not something that helps the dev more than, let's say, contributing to the advertising of the game by talking about it to your friends and posting it on your forums and then buying it (full price) on day one. But stuff like kickstarters and pre-orders make development simpler (if not easier) by making the cashflow more predictable. Predictable cash influx, even if it's less over time by offering it at an early discount, makes publishers happy, which makes them less eager to push developers, which makes the devs and their families happier because their paycheck (and company) is likely to be there next month when development shifts.

Same thing goes with massive sales or cheap prices. Both spur cash-flow but actually don't benefit a developer much overall, which you can most assuredly do by buying full-price. It's just that everything is such a crapshoot that and degree of predictability is preferred over the risk and reward aspect.

[Simon_Jester]

Having cash start coming in before the release date may also be a good way to convince the publisher not to rush release of the product, giving designers an opportunity to finish the job properly. Although obviously that doesn't work every time.

[Or I could just be naive. I'm having a rough day]

[Thanas]

I preordered the Witcher 3 directly from the developer because a) CD Projekt (gog.com) is awesome and hasn't led me down and b) they do give me a bonus which means I'll not be ganked by the difference in US and EU prices.

Also, no DRM.

[bilateralrope]

If it's a developer I like and trust and want to help, I'll do it.

How does preordering help the developer more than buying on release day ?

The usual bonuses I see for preorders are:
- A discount on the purchase price. Which can't help the developer as you are paying less than if you bought on release day.
- DLC or other games that the release day purchases will be able to purchase seperatly. So, again, you're paying less.
- Content exclusive to the preorder. Which you aren't paying any extra for, even though it probably cost something to produce it.

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers.

By this logic, why would the company even make such an offer? Surely they would not knowingly offer something that results in them being worse off than if they'd kept their mouth shut.

Because preorders let them sell the game to people based on the marketing, not the quality of the game. Because it can generate fanboys who will insist the game is good because they paid for it and don't want to admit that they have been fooled.

Or lets look at what Wikipedia says about Aliens: Colonial Marines:

Aliens: Colonial Marines debuted at number one on the UK all formats chart despite the negative reception, similar to the 2010 game Aliens vs. Predator.[68] According to GfK Chart-Track it was the biggest release of the year in the UK ahead of Dead Space 3, and held the second highest first week sales for an Alien game since Aliens vs. Predator.[69][70] The game was number one on both the respective Xbox 360 and PS3 individual charts.[71]

In the U.S. the game debuted at number six on the all formats chart in its first month of release.[72] As of March 31, 2013, as stated in Sega's end-of-fiscal-year report, Aliens: Colonial Marines has sold 1.31 million units in the US and Europe.[73]

Everything looks like A:CM was only able to top sales charts because of the preorders that were made on false advertising.

Maybe the phenomenon of 'handing people money for product that doesn't exist in full form yet' has gone down on consoles. On PC, at least, between Steam Early Access and indie games releasing in Alpha and open betas for every upcoming MMO and Kickstarter backing of even semi-big titles, I feel kinda under deluge by pre-order gaming culture.

Kickstarter is different as those games probably won't come out without funding.

Early access can helps devs by getting people to test the game and provide feedback that can be used to improve it. It can provide the funding devs need to finish a game. Though early access isn't always good for the devs. Plus early access makes it very hard to hide the current quality of the game because it provides something that is playable right now.

So I have no problem with early access or Kickstarters in general. If Kickstarters didn't exist, there are games that wouldn't have been made. While I can't think of any specifics, I don't doubt that there are some indie studios that only managed to release their game because of early access money.

If preorders stopped happening, what would we lose ?

I mean, the system is entirely opt-in, so I'm not seeing the downside.

The biggest downside to me is that preorder culture leads to DLC that is exclusive to retailers that do not exist in my country. Something Gamestop wants to increase.

Also bad is that preorders can create an incentive to spend more of the budget on marketing, less on development, because the money spend on marketing has a better return on investment. After all, A:CM was a success when you look at the sales numbers. Payday 2 was profitable 6 days before launch.

Those are marketing success, not success that come from the game being any good. Sure, I don't know anything about how good Payday 2 is, I just doubt that anyone who helped make it profitable before launch knew either.

I preordered the Witcher 3 directly from the developer because a) CD Projekt (gog.com) is awesome and hasn't led me down and b) they do give me a bonus which means I'll not be ganked by the difference in US and EU prices.

Also, no DRM.

That's a good argument for buying form GOG and I also doubt that CD Projekt will let you down. But even with the risk being that tiny, the preorder bonuses simply aren't worth it compared to waiting for the reviews then buying.

[InsaneTD]

I'm surprised you don't have game stop. They are here in Australia trading as EB Games. A few developers eventually release the "launch exclusive" content later on. Bethesda did it with New Vegas.

[Phillip Hone]

If it's a developer I like and trust and want to help, I'll do it.

How does preordering help the developer more than buying on release day ?

The usual bonuses I see for preorders are:
- A discount on the purchase price. Which can't help the developer as you are paying less than if you bought on release day.
- DLC or other games that the release day purchases will be able to purchase seperatly. So, again, you're paying less.
- Content exclusive to the preorder. Which you aren't paying any extra for, even though it probably cost something to produce it.

I'm not seeing how preordering helps the developers. Not for games that are guaranteed to come out. Games on Kickstarter are a different story as they might not come out without your support.

Where did you preorder The Witcher 3 ?
Because where you purchased it does make a difference when you're talking about supporting the developers.

Like Thanas, I got it from gog, which is a sister company of CDProjekt, and another service I wish to support. It's a way of saying "thank you for not having DRM." We all want things like that, so it makes sense reward businesses that go against the grain and take a risk.

Businesses always would rather get paid sooner rather than later. True for most people, for that matter. Would you prefer to get $50 today, or $49 three months from now? There's a reason why people take out loans.

Also, these are GAMES we are talking about, these days they drop in price like falling rocks. I bought The Witcher 2 for like $15 *one year* after its release. So yeah, the pre-order price is way more than I'd be paying if I just waited a reasonable amount of time.

Pre-orders are mostly for the benefit of companies but I see it as a way of rewarding them for good service while also getting the game as soon as it's out with a few extras thrown in.

Also, some companies, like CDProject aren't necessarily in great shape because they are smaller or because they make games that are more niche. TW2 almost didn't happen.

Generally, yeah, pre-orders are really dumb.

[TheFeniX]

Also, these are GAMES we are talking about, these days they drop in price like falling rocks. I bought The Witcher 2 for like $15 *one year* after its release. So yeah, the pre-order price is way more than I'd be paying if I just waited a reasonable amount of time.

That's CDP though. EA would rather never let you see a game than sell it to you at a reduced price.

We won't be doing that. Obviously they think it's the right thing to do after a certain amount of time. I just think it cheapens your intellectual property. I know both sides of it, I understand it. If you want to sell a whole bunch of units, that is certainly a way to do that, to sell a whole bunch of stuff at a low price. The gamemakers work incredibly hard to make this intellectual property, and we're not trying to be Target. We're trying to be Nordstrom. When I say that, I mean good value - we're trying to give you a fair price point, and occasionally there will be things that are on sale you could look for a discount, just don't look for 75 percent off going-out-of-business sales.

Fuck you, Target is awesome. And keep trying to be Nordstorm, and failing because you're really just Wal-Mart at this point.

Not only EA, but a lot of other publishers love keeping their games at inflated prices for years (in the $20+ range), which is likely the biggest reason they want to kill the used/physical gaming market because Gamestop will sell a game for $15 for what Steam/2K wants to sell it to you for $30: Bioshock Infinite.

[Alyeska]

Also, these are GAMES we are talking about, these days they drop in price like falling rocks. I bought The Witcher 2 for like $15 *one year* after its release. So yeah, the pre-order price is way more than I'd be paying if I just waited a reasonable amount of time.

That's CDP though. EA would rather never let you see a game than sell it to you at a reduced price.

We won't be doing that. Obviously they think it's the right thing to do after a certain amount of time. I just think it cheapens your intellectual property. I know both sides of it, I understand it. If you want to sell a whole bunch of units, that is certainly a way to do that, to sell a whole bunch of stuff at a low price. The gamemakers work incredibly hard to make this intellectual property, and we're not trying to be Target. We're trying to be Nordstrom. When I say that, I mean good value - we're trying to give you a fair price point, and occasionally there will be things that are on sale you could look for a discount, just don't look for 75 percent off going-out-of-business sales.

Fuck you, Target is awesome. And keep trying to be Nordstorm, and failing because you're really just Wal-Mart at this point.

Not only EA, but a lot of other publishers love keeping their games at inflated prices for years (in the $20+ range), which is likely the biggest reason they want to kill the used/physical gaming market because Gamestop will sell a game for $15 for what Steam/2K wants to sell it to you for $30: Bioshock Infinite.

That doesn't even make sense. EA gives deep discounts far sooner than almost every other publisher. I have seen their games reduced to $30 within 2 months of release. BF4 sold for $25 on Black Friday. Activision charges full price on COD games a year after release. EA massively reduces prices within the first 6 months.

[Thanas]

EA may give discounts to huge chains, but their games are ridiculously expensive no matter how old they are on internet distribution and amazon.

[Alyeska]

EA may give discounts to huge chains, but their games are ridiculously expensive no matter how old they are on internet distribution and amazon.

I have found EA prices on Amazon are also discounted. Checking Amazon right now, both Battlefield 4 and COD Ghosts are selling for less than $30. Though both have significantly higher digital prices. BF4 is $45 while CODG is $60.

Now this is interesting. The list price for CODG is $60, on sale for $25. The list price for BF4 is $30, on sale for $28. List price for Titan Fall is $40, on sale for $38.

The release day price has increased on PC, but both Activision and EA are showing steep discounts before the first year where previously a game might stay full price up to 2 years.

[TheFeniX]

How much is EA banking on DLC purchase, such as the multiple unlock packages and infinite number of expansions? The unlock package is $40 and from what I've read: not having a lot of the unlocks gimps you. And the base game is pretty much worthless unless you can dig for vanilla servers, so at this point considering all the expansions you're basically stuck with the $80 (when not on sale) Premium edition. Also, all the weapons you can buy. And as far as I know, you can't mod the game, so EA has a stranglehold on all the content. So, you get the base game and can't play on 90% of the servers out there. You either deal with it, quit, or pony up. I would assume people who still waste money on Battlefied games just pony up.

And really, who cares about CoD sale price? Activision makes their money on massive pre-orders and sales, then just releases another installment next year, after hitting people up for $15 to port over maps from the older games like MW1. You know, the good maps? EA goes the Sims route with BF: release rushed poorly made expansions that add even more bugs to the game, and gouge the shit out of people for them.

[Alyeska]

Actually, the majority of the servers are vanilla. Because the DLC packs fragment the community.