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CD's to go the way of Vinyl: New Study
Posted: 2003-09-03 02:02pm
by Stravo
Study: CDs may soon go the way of vinyl
Video rental stores also on the way out, report says
By Jeordan Legon
CNN
Wednesday, September 3, 2003 Posted: 12:02 PM EDT (1602 GMT)
(CNN) -- In the 1950s, the revolution was all about rock 'n' roll. The 70s brought punk and disco. And sometime this decade, the rebellion shifted from the music genre to the digital domain.
Signaling a new era of media distribution, Forrester Research on Tuesday released a study predicting an even bigger drop in compact disc sales as Internet music file-sharing keeps gaining ground on the flagging CD.
Twenty years after its introduction, the CD is no longer hip. From 2001 to 2002, Nielsen SoundScan estimates that 62.5 million fewer were sold -- a 9 percent drop to 649.5 million. Plummeting CD sales have forced record shops to close. And the music industry is scrambling to lift sales -- fueling the growth of new digital music services and suing hard-core file sharers.
Downloadable future
Forrester's survey of 4,782 adults and 1,170 young people finds about 20 percent of all Americans download music from the Internet. Half of the downloaders say they're buying fewer CDs. The study forecasts that in five years, about a third of music sales will come from downloads, and CD sales will drop 30 percent from their 1999 peak.
"On-demand services are the future of entertainment delivery," said Josh Bernoff, principal analyst at Forrester. "CDs, DVDs, and any other forms of physical media will become obsolete."
The survey did find some bright spots for music executives. It shows that the industry might ultimately be helped by pursuing lawsuits against heavy file sharers. More than two out of three young downloaders told Forrester they'd stop if they risked jail or a fine.
At least 10 Windows-based music services are expected to emerge in the next nine months, the report said, and by the end of 2004, downloads and on-demand subscriptions may bring in $270 million. If the trend continues, three years from now digital music sales could account for $1.4 billion of the music industry's $12.8 billion in expected revenues.
Music companies are also trying new tactics to keep CDs alive. Last year, for example, Interscope gave a DVD to the first million shoppers who took home 'The Eminem Show' CD. They're also trying out new, more expensive technologies such as the super audio CDs and DVD audio, both of which profess to offer superior sound than the plain old CD.
"The CD is turning out to be a transitory sort of item," said Roy Trakin, senior editor of Hits magazine, a California-based tipsheet covering the music business. "The future of the CD may be in its enhanced content -- in a hybrid CD DVD and the more upscale formats like DVD audio and super audio CDs."
Movies, TV take note
The report urges movie and television companies to take notice of what's happening with music. One in five young file sharers has downloaded a movie, Forrester says, and among downloaders with more than 400 files, 70 percent had at least one video file.
In the coming years, growing access to digital video on-demand in U.S. homes and the hassle of late fees and trips to the store will push many customers away from video rental shops, Forrester says. By 2007, the research group estimates that video rental revenues at Blockbuster and q-Mart will drop 37 percent. And by 2008, overall revenues from DVDs and tapes will drop 8 percent.
"Consumers have spoken -- they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs and prefer more flexible forms of on-demand media delivery," Bernoff said.
"Piracy and its cure -- streaming and paid downloads -- will drive people to connect to entertainment, not own it," the report concludes.
Speaking from experience, I was burning CD's up until about February when I got a Nomad jukebox. Now I throw everything in the jukebox and I haven't burned a CD since. I have a stack of blank CD's I brought in bulk because of my incessant CD creating that are gathering dust.
Definately the wave of the future.
Posted: 2003-09-03 02:13pm
by MKSheppard
Not really. CDs are a secure format that won't lose power, can be dropped
and still work.
Posted: 2003-09-03 02:35pm
by Stormbringer
CD aren't going the way of the dodo just yet. They're still useful and secure. Plus they're independent of a computer or jukebox. They're useful as a place to put those files.
As for slumping CD sales, that doens't mean much. No one wants to buy a 15 dollar CD that's full of crap. I mean whose going to pay that much for the kind of crappy bands out there? That's more a problem of the Music Industry than any flaw in CDs themself.
Posted: 2003-09-03 02:49pm
by RedImperator
Right. Another study that concludes that consumers will be willing to pay each time they view a movie instead of paying a higher price for it once and then watching it as often as they like. As much as the entertainment industry creams its panties over this idea, it's not going to happen.
Posted: 2003-09-03 02:55pm
by Joe
DVDs, I don't see disappearing. At least not for a good while. I haven't bought a CD all year, but I've bought tons of DVDs. At the least, they'll always be around for movie buffs.
Also, Hollywood hasn't gone out of its way to piss of its key demographic as much as possible like the recording industry is, which will in the long run have some effect.
Posted: 2003-09-04 12:01am
by GrandMasterTerwynn
I would take a CD over most electronic formats any day of the week. As others have said, they're secure, they're tangible, and they're computer-independent. The only problem with CDs is that they cost way too fucking much! If one sold CDs at reasonable profit margins, one would have to pay, at most, seven bucks for a good CD. But, they seem determined to kill the format for these online on-demand schemes, which are essentially "pay forever" schemes, rather than "pay once" schemes.
Posted: 2003-09-04 01:34am
by EmperorMing
I see that article as waaay too ahead of things. No way I would stop burning stuff...
Posted: 2003-09-04 01:34am
by Darth Wong
If your basement gets flooded, wash out your CDs and DVDs, and they will still work. If a lightning strike sends a high-voltage spike through your lines, the CD or DVD in your drive will be intact. Lotsa luck getting through those kinds of problems with an electronic jukebox.
PS. Anyone who doubts the near-term viability of the video rental store would be well-advised to go to a Blockbuster and take a look at the sales volume.
Posted: 2003-09-04 01:36am
by EmperorMing
Darth Wong wrote:If your basement gets flooded, wash out your CDs and DVDs, and they will still work. If a lightning strike sends a high-voltage spike through your lines, the CD or DVD in your drive will be intact. Lotsa luck getting through those kinds of problems with an electronic jukebox.
Yeah, and when the 200 GB hd crashes, are you gonna pay 1000 clams for some recovery service to retrieve all that data when you could have burned it on disk for a fraction of the cost? Not me...
Posted: 2003-09-04 04:43pm
by greenmm
Darth Wong wrote:If your basement gets flooded, wash out your CDs and DVDs, and they will still work. If a lightning strike sends a high-voltage spike through your lines, the CD or DVD in your drive will be intact. Lotsa luck getting through those kinds of problems with an electronic jukebox.
PS. Anyone who doubts the near-term viability of the video rental store would be well-advised to go to a Blockbuster and take a look at the sales volume.
Or even Hollywood Video, for those of us who just in the past month joined the DVD club (although VHS stores tend to have better selections of older movies, particularly the B-grade stuff that makes great weekend viewing)...
Posted: 2003-09-06 08:37am
by Gil Hamilton
I still use CDs and DVDs, and I don't really care for digital jukeboxes anyway. Of course, I still have and have kept in function the Juliette Quadrasonic System that's a combination AM/FM radio, Quadraphonic, and vinyl record player that I inherited from my mom which she bought in the mid 70s.
This makes me want to spin a 45, I think, in honor of dead media.
Posted: 2003-09-06 09:22am
by The Yosemite Bear
Hey I am slowly converting my dad's vast liberary of reel to reels, 78s, and 33.333~s to CD format. Since may dad has a number of Dead tapes, old radio shows, and blues on tape.....
it has uses..
Posted: 2003-09-06 09:54am
by Spyder
I doubt that CD's will go anytime soon, that being said they are likely to be more often used somewhat differently then in tradition.
Posted: 2003-09-06 09:31pm
by Einhander Sn0m4n
I don't see CDs or DVDs going out anytime soon, although I'd love to have them made from a more scratch-resistant material. Nothing worse than picking up a CD by the optical side and ripping a Grand-Canyon-size gulch through it!
RedImperator wrote:Right. Another study that concludes that consumers will be willing to pay each time they view a movie instead of paying a higher price for it once and then watching it as often as they like. As much as the entertainment industry creams its panties over this idea, it's not going to happen.
Seconded. I never have been one for PPV services. I'd rather pay $20 for a movie disk once than have to pay $5 every time I watch the movie on the telly.
RedImperator wrote:As much as the entertainment industry creams its panties over this idea, it's not going to happen.
Whoa man, Bad Visual!!
Posted: 2003-09-06 09:38pm
by HemlockGrey
PS. Anyone who doubts the near-term viability of the video rental store would be well-advised to go to a Blockbuster and take a look at the sales volume.
And thank God, too, since I'd like to own a video place in the not-too-distant future.
Posted: 2003-09-06 10:04pm
by The Cleric
What about the iTunes? That seems to be a pretty good deal.
Posted: 2003-09-07 03:20am
by Gandalf
StormTrooperTR889 wrote:What about the iTunes? That seems to be a pretty good deal.
It does seem like a good idea, but how long before it gets corrupted by greed?