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Prediction time

Posted: 2005-02-17 08:09am
by Mr Bean
Time for you to put on your big old prohet of the future hat and predictice when these things will be aviable

Just quote and/or copy paste this and fill you answears in
Retail refers to the time you can log onto Newegg and order it or walk into a Best Buy and purchase it

All predictions are month/year

1. When will the first Terabyte hard drives aviable for retail?

2. When will the first ten gig flash keys be aviable retail?

3. When will discount/cheap computers start using a gig of ram standard

4. When will the 10 Ghtz Proccessing barrier be broken?(Retail)

5. When will GPU's hit 1Ghtz?

6. When will RAMBUS stop sueing people?

Re: Prediction time

Posted: 2005-02-17 08:55am
by Arrow
Mr Bean wrote: 1. When will the first Terabyte hard drives aviable for retail?
Well, we've just 400 GB, and last year it was 250GB, so I'll go for 12/2007, assuming that the pace of size increase slows just a little bit.
2. When will the first ten gig flash keys be aviable retail?
Hmmm. We're already at 1 GB for pen drives, and we've already got 10 GB flash drives. 6/2006, assuming they can get the packaging right.
3. When will discount/cheap computers start using a gig of ram standard
No idea.
4. When will the 10 Ghtz Proccessing barrier be broken?(Retail)
4 GHz seems to be the barrier at the moment, with companies switching to multiple core solutions to increase processing speed. Recent advances in nanoscale circuits and low power circuits need to make a full transition from lab toy to commerical product before we'll ever see like 10 GHz CPUs. I'd say no earlier than 1/2010 (now watch 'em be out in three years...)
5. When will GPU's hit 1Ghtz?
We can already run GPUs at 400 MHz, but they've got some of the same barriers as CPUs do. But I think asking for a 600 MHz increase is more doable than a 6 GHz increase. I think the GPU's architecture will be a big help in getting 1 GHz (data only goes through one way, more or less). The other driving factor is how fast can data be loaded onto the graphics card. PCI-E and faster memories will help that. I say three years, so 2/2008.
6. When will RAMBUS stop sueing people?
Right before SCO, the RIAA and the MPAA. When the seas boil and the skies fall...

Re: Prediction time

Posted: 2005-02-17 10:09am
by InnocentBystander
Mr Bean wrote:Time for you to put on your big old prohet of the future hat and predictice when these things will be aviable

Just quote and/or copy paste this and fill you answears in
Retail refers to the time you can log onto Newegg and order it or walk into a Best Buy and purchase it

All predictions are month/year

1. When will the first Terabyte hard drives aviable for retail?

2. When will the first ten gig flash keys be aviable retail?

3. When will discount/cheap computers start using a gig of ram standard

4. When will the 10 Ghtz Proccessing barrier be broken?(Retail)

5. When will GPU's hit 1Ghtz?

6. When will RAMBUS stop sueing people?
1 - 3 Years or so, it's quite a jump from the 5 or so GB we have now. The TB drives I've seen on websites are a LONG way from comercial use.
2 - Well, they are already at 1GB as I recall, 10 is not likely to be too far away, I'd give it a year, 2/3 for them to become reasonably priced of course ;)
3 - Ehh, 512 is the discount amount, or will be soon, 1GB is the average on gaming machines. I figure 2 years.
4 - That's a hard barrier, 4Ghz is sorta the limit with the technology we use. It was predicted that we should have had 10Ghz comercial processors THIS year. It could be 5 years, I think, before we start seeing those kinds of numbers, perhaps longer.
5 - 1 Year or so, the graphics industry is pretty competitive right now
6 - 3 Months after Hell Freezes Over :lol:

Re: Prediction time

Posted: 2005-02-17 11:19am
by Praxis
Mr Bean wrote:Time for you to put on your big old prohet of the future hat and predictice when these things will be aviable

Just quote and/or copy paste this and fill you answears in
Retail refers to the time you can log onto Newegg and order it or walk into a Best Buy and purchase it

All predictions are month/year

1. When will the first Terabyte hard drives aviable for retail?

2. When will the first ten gig flash keys be aviable retail?

3. When will discount/cheap computers start using a gig of ram standard

4. When will the 10 Ghtz Proccessing barrier be broken?(Retail)

5. When will GPU's hit 1Ghtz?

6. When will RAMBUS stop sueing people?
1) 12/05 or 01/06.
We've already got these: http://www.lacie.com/products/product.htm?pid=10462

2) 10/06. We have the iPod Mini at 4 GB, and some flash players with equal-sized 5 GB flash drives. Thatneeds to double and get a little smaller.

3) 11/06 or 01/07. But I predict Apple will only put 1 gig on the PowerMacs. Right now, most of their systems are still using 256 MB *sigh*.

4) Not for a while. I think multi-core will be the future, and also processors that are more efficient (more calcs per clock cycle, more cache, etc). Maybe...2010?

5) 6/07. However, the first 1 GHz GPU will take up two slots and have a huge fan.

6) If we get lucky, when Sony starts using their RAM in the PS3. Otherwise, never.