StarDestroyer.Net BBS

So apparently legal music downloading is actually well on-track to overtake illegal downloading. This got me thinking of the various P2P systems that have come and gone, especially Kazaa. Kazaa used to be a one-stop shop for just about anything. But what happened? Now it's difficult to find anything on there.

So here's my theory. As P2P systems become more popular, they draw the attention of advertisers. The advertisers then begin infecting shared files with spyware and adware. This eventually drives people away from the system, which in turn drives the amount of "legitimate" (where "legitimate" is defined as files being no more and no less than what they portray themselves as) content down. As the amount of legitimate content goes down, people look for other systems to use and eventually settle on one. Then the cycle starts over.

The same is starting to happen to BitTorrent. If you download a file, it might be encapsulated in a RAR archive, which decompresses to an EXE file, which is a self-extracting ZIP archive that also has code to install spyware. According to my theory, BitTorrent should, barring some outside factor, gradually wane in popularity.

Any thoughts?

BitTorrent isn't a monolithic system, it's a file-transfer protocol. Analogously, the web is large and popular, and it has certainly attracted the attention of advertisers, but there are plenty of web sites where you won't see any ads, or popups, or other nastiness.

I think that BitTorrent will be similar. Individual BitTorrent communities may go the way of Kazaa, but there will be many which don't, due to being smaller and/or better run. Try comparing this BBS with Slashdot, and you'll see what I mean: SD.Net is competently moderated, Slashdot is not. And it shows in the signal-to-noise ratios.

Durandal wrote:Any thoughts?

Adam Smith was right.

That's all there is to it; P2P networks allowed folks a better alternative than buying CD's, so the marketshare shifted towards them. But P2P networks are loaded with downsides... Spyware, illegality, crap recordings, misnamed files, slow load times... So it was inevitable that a well-organized scheme to use it would work better.

Legal downloading doesn't have the problems I mention; it's easy to find the song you want, know it's what you want, and it'll download quickly. Quick, convenient, no moral ambiguity. I predicted this one for a while.

It's just another blunt laugh in the face of the lying asshats who try to paint P2P as the apocalypse. Its just another evolution.