Cutting Through the Next-Generation Bull

[Dominus Atheos]

There's been a lot of talk recently about the PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Revolution. Some of the statements that have been made are complete BS while others hold some weight to them. We've compiled all of the recent headlines on both upcoming consoles, dug through the BS and provided the real facts behind each statement. So sit back, put on your nose plugs and grab a shovel as we remove the BS and get to what we can really expect from the PlayStation 3 and Revolution.

Statement #1: Sony Will Ship 4-7 Million PlayStation 3 Consoles This Year

"If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between 4 and 7 million units could ship."

- Andy Parsons, senior vice president of Pioneer Electronics

Source: GameDaily BIZ
High BS Warning
BS Meter: High

It's clear that Sony needs the PlayStation 3 to perform extremely well. The company has laid-off 10,000 employees and hired a Western CEO to attend to the falling demand for Sony electronics. The PlayStation 3 is the center of Sony's financial outlook throughout the foreseeable future, and with the console expected to release in Japan and the US this year, shipping a large amount of consoles could be crucial to the company.

With that said, how exactly does the senior vice president of Pioneer Electronics know anything about how many PS3 units Sony intends to ship? In fact, with Pioneer's first Blu-Ray player retailing for $1800, I would think Pioneer would be more concerned with the price of the PS3 than the number of units Sony will be shipping. It's very unlikely that an $1800 Blu-Ray player would stand up to a $500 (estimate) PS3 with virtually the same capabilities.

You've also got to wonder exactly how Sony would be able to manufacture 4-7 million PlayStation 3 consoles by the end of the year. The Cell chip manufacturing ramp up has not yet begun, and the chip yield will almost certainly impact how many units can be manufactured this year. The senior vice president of Pioneer Electronics should probably do some research before throwing out comments that force us to dig through a pile of BS before getting to the truth.

Statement #2: PlayStation 3 Online Service to Mimic Xbox Live

Sony Computer Entertainment America recently sent out an email survey to registered consumers, inquiring about gamers' online habits and what features matter most.

Source: GameDaily BIZ
Medium BS Warning
BS Meter: Medium

Let's face it, Sony dominates the home console market in every possible way except online gaming. It's no secret that one of the only advantages Microsoft has in the console gaming market is the Xbox Live service and its integration into the Xbox and Xbox 360. While many PS2 owners would love to see Sony implement a service similar to Xbox Live on the PlayStation 3, big name players such as Electronic Arts have been vocal about the ability to set up their own online networks for games.

In addition, if Sony plans to launch the PlayStation 3 this summer in Japan and this holiday season in the US, it may be too late to start asking what consumers want in an online service. It has taken Microsoft three years and two consoles to get to the point they're at now with the Xbox Live service, and it still doesn't offer everything gamers have been asking for. Sony sending out e-mail surveys less than a year before the PlayStation 3 releases is not a good sign that any online implementation will be executed anywhere near the level of Xbox Live.

What we see happening is a partial Xbox Live service for the PlayStation 3. You pay an annual fee less than Xbox Live and get access to online gaming, a friend's list and downloadable content. You will also gain access to downloading music and possibly movies down the line for an additional cost. However, we do not see the service being anywhere near the level of Xbox Live. It may take Sony the entire life cycle of the PS3 and beyond to get to the point where Xbox Live is at now with the 360.

Statement #3: The Revolution Will Be Shown In Near Final Form At E3 2006 And Release Before Thanksgiving 2006

"We can't disclose the Revolution's release period yet, but we have no plans to miss out on the year-end sales battle. As for North America, we need to release it by Thanksgiving, or otherwise we won't receive support from the retail industry. So the Revolution will be released prior to that period,"

- Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President
Low BS Warning
BS Meter: Low

Let's take this one BS statement at a time here. First of all, the "Nintendo Difference" has been to talk big about E3, then come up short (at least for the last couple of years). Last year Sony wowed us with tech demos of the PlayStation 3 and Microsoft gave us the basics on the Xbox 360. While we sat at the Hollywood and Highland Complex waiting on Nintendo to at least match Sony and Microsoft, we were greatly disappointed to see nothing more than a hardware mock up of the Revolution and a pseudo-announcement of Super Smash Brothers 3.

Now Nintendo is saying that a near final version of the Revolution will be on display and working at E3 2006. If the company expects to release in the US before Thanksgiving then it has to have a working model at E3, but exactly what does that mean for attendees of the annual expo? We expect to see Zelda: Twilight Princess running on Revolution with the new features discussed a couple weeks ago, and maybe Smash Brothers and a Mario title with a couple of little mini-games like we saw at the Tokyo Game Show. We may also see a handful of classic Nintendo titles to promote the Revolution download service Nintendo has vaguely discussed in the past. If we can play Smash, Mario and some Nintendo classics on the show floor we'll be happy Nintendo. Don't let us down!

As far as a release date is concerned, Nintendo really doesn't have a choice in the matter. As Mr. Iwata stated, if Nintendo does not get the Revolution on US retail shelves before Thanksgiving, retailers won't support the console in 2006. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft and Sony will be heading into the holiday season at full force. It would greatly benefit Nintendo to release before the PlayStation 3 in the US, but we really don't see that happening unless Sony has some sort of manufacturing mishap with the Cell chip.

Statement #4: The Nintendo Revolution Will Be Priced Under $300 And Outsell The Xbox 360

"The next-generation console from Nintendo, code-named Revolution, will cost less than $300. Our third resolution is to stop turning away new players."

- Reggie Fils-Aime, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Nintendo of America

"We will sell more units than Xbox 360 did here in the United States in our launch window. I mean, in December, we sold more GameCubes in the United States than Microsoft sold 360s, and Revolution will do better than that."

- Reggie Fils-Aime, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Nintendo of America

Source: GameDaily BIZ
Medium BS Warning
BS Meter: Medium

Remember when Reggie told the world that Nintendo was all about kicking ass and taking names? Anyone look at the GameCube sales for 2005 compared to PlayStation 2 and Xbox? Yeah, not much ass kicking, and we won't even get into the taking names part. The Nintendo DS and Game Boy Advance/Micro sold well, but we're talking consoles here, not handhelds. Now Nintendo wants us to believe that not only will the Revolution be priced at under $300 when it releases sometime before Thanksgiving in the US, but that it will also perform better than the Xbox 360 over a comparative timeframe.

Reggie… we're cool with you man. You aren't that great at Smash Brothers (according to Satoru Iwata), but we won't hold that one against you. But are you feeding us some BS here man? You're saying the Nintendo Revolution will release under $300. That's great, but what does that really mean? Are we talking $299.99, $249.99 or what? We'll assume that if Nintendo was seriously considering a $199.99 price point, "under $300" would not have been used. If the Revolution comes in at $299 or even $249 do you really think it will be able to stand against the Xbox 360 at $300 and $400 or the PlayStation 3 at even $500, Reggie?

Now let's take a look at that statement calling Microsoft out. The Xbox 360 sold out in the US this holiday season. Final numbers haven't been released, but it's safe to say MS sold at least 500,000 units with roughly a 4:1 ratio on games to systems sold. Can a $250 Revolution perform better than that competing against the Xbox 360 in its second holiday season and the much hyped PS3 in its opening season? We noticed you didn't say too much about outperforming the PS3, but you certainly boasted about the DS outselling the PlayStation Portable.

We expect the Revolution to release around $250 this upcoming holiday season, so that figure probably isn't BS. However, while we do expect Nintendo to ship more Revolution consoles within the launch window than the number of Xbox 360 consoles Microsoft was able to ship, we don't expect Nintendo's console to outperform the Xbox 360 launch. This is mainly due to stiff competition from the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. Microsoft is off to a great start with the Xbox 360 and Sony will generate super hype for the PS3 based on the name brand alone. Sorry Reggie, we're down to beat up on you in some Smash Brothers Revolution, but you won't be beating on Microsoft or Sony this year; at least not in the console market.