Really break dit down and he's right about it being a pointless waste of time...it'll be a chunk I won't have back, but to his yabberings.
Now, I don't want to be the type to say "I told you so." Let me instead just say that a couple of years back I made a prediction about the gaming industry and that my prediction is on the verge of coming true and that I now wish to emphasize the fact that I told you about it beforehand.
Who am I? I am the creator of a certain video game console. I don't want to toot my own horn, but let's just say that profits from this machine were four billion dollars higher than the Microsoft XBox.
Yes, and I made $40 just sitting here reading this, while organizing an audit. I guess I should be crowing how I've trumped Microsoft.
While it engages the audience, it's just a poor beginning since it has little to any bearing with what happens in said industry, and tries to paint that MS is the only one ever losing money by specifically targeting them.
My console consisted of a plastic milk crate with a kitten placed inside. The controller was a wooden rod that could be used to poke the kitten. I sold zero of these consoles, which cost me zero to manufacture. Therefore my profits were zero. The XBox, however, LOST four billion dollars. Click the red words if you don't believe me. I'll wait.
Now imagine four thousand of those stacks, and then imagine someone setting them on fire. That's what the XBox has done for Microsoft. If, after I tired of playing the only game available for my console (Cat Poker Tournament) I sat down and mailed a $20 bill to every single gamer in America, I would still be $2 billion ahead of the XBox.
Continuation of the shit above, move along...move along.
Think about that, and think about how Sony plans to take a $400 to $500 loss on every single damned PS3 they sell for the first few years. Oh, I know they can make that money back on the games... if the consoles sell like hotcakes in a colony for hotcake addicts during a hotcake shortage. But only if.
Finally he reaches something of a point...at the end. Let's see if he does anything with it.
I hereby predict that this will not happen. Luckily for me, it doesn't take a genius.
No shit, now will he finally reveal his opening beyond his yabbering doomsaying?
I'll now answer some of the most common objections about the Video Game Crash:
1. Why does the industry have to crash at all? The movie industry is still around over a century later, dumbass.
Let's say Sony and Nintendo and Microsoft came out tomorrow and announced they were cancelling their next-gen systems. I don't know why, maybe there's a plague or something. How long would you keep playing your current game machine? Forever? As long as good games were coming out for it?
History says otherwise. History says that you'd eventually get bored with the machine even if there wasn't a better one to replace it.
No shit, still doesn't actually go into why the crash came about, but it takes you a while to even reach here.
It sounds crazy, and it took everybody quite by surprise the first time the game industry crashed in the early 80's. Back then the Atari 2600 was king, it being the first really popular game console. They sold 25 million machines when suddenly, inexplicably, most people stopped playing games.
Nice to see you gloss over real facts in favor of your bullshit. Atari failed not because of only the 2600, but the direct confusion over the market...first stone was that abomination called the 5200.
Nobody was more surprised than Atari, who in 1983 spent millions bringing their biggest title to market, a game based on the movie ET (at the time it the highest-grossing film in history). So they had the most popular film, in a game for the most popular system. What could go wrong? They stamped out seven million copies of the game, and then were shocked to find that about six million of them sat untouched on store shelves. Legend has it that the unsold games wound up buried in a landfill and that to this day, no plants will grow over that spot.
Still seeing yabbering over actual facts.
What Atari didn't realize was that by 1983 the vast majority of 2600's were sitting in closets, and in basements and in moldy cardboard boxes in the back of the garage. No other console became popular in its place, not for years.
Dumbshit...the 5200 hurt atari, the proposed 7800 did worse...huge amount of mismanagement at Atari to compete with Apple and Commodore ring any bells?
Of course not.
Why? After all, we still watch TV sitcoms, and they've looked the same since color TV was invented. Kids still play basketball, more than a century after that sport was accidentally invented by a rural turkey farmer looking for a quick way to get dead birds into the round hole of the carcass chute. So what's different about video games?
Another deviation.
The difference, is that most people are only playing games for the novelty of it.
Remember the first Roy-Orbison-wrapped-in-shrinkwrap erotic fiction story you read? Of course. Do you remember the 207th one? Only vaguely. Well, it's the same reason. Those stories really aren't that great. It was only interesting for the novelty, and the novelty wears off.
Yep, intelligent analogy. I might as well claim my cat licking her pussy as my interest in sex.
With the 2600, players realized that Hot Dog Maze was just Pac-Man with different colors. Soon the cool thing among video game fans was to sit around not playing video games. The industry collapsed.
Y'know what Kirk said about Khan and missing the target?
Then the Next Big Thing came along, the Nintendo Entertainment System in 1986. It was a radical departure from the blocky 2600, to the point that the experience was novel once again. Games had actual worlds to travel in, and you could save your games from one day to the next. Playing these games didn't just look different; they felt different. Space Invaders was a series of symbols on a screen you manipulated for a score, Legend of Zelda was an actual universe you could escape to.
Kirk's statement even more true. To put it this way, it wasn't because the NES was vast new technology, or somehow they had stories. These help...but the truth is the game were not something you could see yourself doing. They were engaging and were for lack of a better term...not shit. Oh they were out there, and many still died, but the good ones that sold the system were not.
And yet, even with the enormous number of games (Metroid delayed my discovering girls for a for a good 18 months), the gaming experience itself still couldn't keep our interest for more than a few years. Attention waned again, but this time new, fancier systems arrived just in time, offering a new and novel experience thanks to prettier graphics and character animation. And yet those systems (the Sega Genesis and later the SNES), as great as they were, eventually were retired to closets and attics and the sandy carpets of the Pakistani black market.
Here's where I really wonder about super dork(Nintendo delayed nothing of women when I discovered them...that I call building self confidence).
Nintendo lasted about a good 7-8 years. Sega Genesis and Super NES lasted around the same mark before any true dissolve of their target market.
But given the precession...these thoughts are irrelevant to his all knowing truth he wishes to preach.
It was a bitter, dark cloud of Japanese expletives that wafted from the meeting rooms at Nintendo and Sega when they realized their industry effectively lived under a curse. Gaming was not an everlasting, deep well of joy for the audience. No, the only way to keep them playing was to distract them with novelty, to roll out a new machine every five years, spending half a billion dollars in development each time, moving from colored blocks to 2D figures to cartoonish 3D to realistic 3D.
Which brings us to today. We've now advanced from realistic 3D to slightly prettier 3D and... even slightlier prettier 3D with slightly better reflection effects and slightly better animated water ripples and - oh, look! This game has the most realistic fog yet!
Seriously I'm trying to figure what this pile is saying here. So they moved to 3-D....and we have slightly prettier 3-D? So what are you aiming at...other then ranting.
See the problem?
No, because what above was a bad rant.
What does an art form that relies on novelty do when it can no longer offer up anything novel? Think I'm crazy? Would you call Nintendo's Hiroshi Yamauchi crazy?
You of course will be able to point this out logically and effectively correct? No? Didn't think so.
Okay, you would, but in between strapping kleenex boxes to his feet and wearing a giant raw squid as a hat, the 114 year-old console gaming guru speaks wisdom. And he believes gaming has hit the wall as far as graphics go.
You don't have to be a tech geek to get this. Check out the rather startling difference between the Atari 2600 title Jet Goblins Attack from 1980 and The Legend of Zelda just seven years later:
What the hell are you getting at? Hell, I thought you wanted to talk about games as actually play and such not...not whether graphics are shiny. Oh wait, that was and is your main thrust, because it ignores all the other aspects of why the industry crashed.
Some prettier flame effects, but it's hardly enough to be a new experience.
2. Don't you know the new consoles are 1,000 times more powerful than the current ones, you flaming volcano of idiocy?
The walls show rust and shadow better, and maybe blood sprays a little differently... but you don't have anywhere near the leap from the Atari's little blocky shapes to the NES's ability to actually display little human characters, or the jump from flat 2D SNES games to the wide-open 3D landscape of Mario 64. With each successful new generation there was a real difference, not just in how the game looked, but in the gaming experience itself.
Too bad, you actually don't cover any of it until burping it out now.
The current generation was novel because it introduced the world to adult games. The Grand Theft Auto series carried the PS2, with the ability to abuse prostitutes in ways that Mario only did off-camera. You had cursing in the cutscenes, you had games a 28 year-old man felt cool playing for the very first time.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Okay, equating to fucking hookers and killing to make a 28 year old feel cool, tells you all you need to know.
But now Sony is asking us to pay $600 for the PS3, a machine that really needs a $2,000 television to work, on the promise that it will "...be able to simulate cloth and fluid" like never before.
What little of the PS3 games they showed at E3 did indeed seem to be able to simulate some phat-ass cloth and fluid... but how much difference was there in the actual gaming experience? Gears of War for the 360 is beautiful to look at but nobody is claiming it's a truly different - or novel - experience than similar games we're playing now. And history says gaming can't survive that way.
Back to yabbering about graphics, stating that game experience will suck, but no proof.
The Nintendo Wii maybe has the right idea, introducing a controller that you flip around with your wrists instead of pushing buttons. Their thinking is you can engage gamers by translating their actual body movements into the game world. Right now it looks like a primitive, gimmicky attempt on a cheap, underpowered machine.... but at E3 just that little bit of novelty was enough to draw huge crowds that dwarfed the Sony and Microsoft booths.
Also see this little video clip, depicting E3 crowds walking past the PS3 booth like it was a homeless man asking for change. That, my friends, is the first iceberg sighting from the Titanic.
But crowing that "See Nintendo does this with their cheap ass machine...and it drew huge crowds!!!...The End is near!!!!!!!!"
Still nothing about how graphics spell instant gratification..oh wait, at this point does he have one? No. He's off on another tangent. Fits his analogy with Roy real well, doesn't it?
The problem is the next real leap forward in gaming, the next real difference in how we play games via sensory suits or neural inputs or whatever, is still too far away and too expensive. Back in the 90's they thought it would be VR headsets, but that technology turned out to be a headache-inducing fad, people's desire for tech novelty outweighed by their fear of being caught in an enormous electrical dorkhat.
You have got to be shitting me. He's bring the VR statement?
3. Look, jackass, as long as there are fun games, the industry will be just fine.
Let's look at this supposed "fun" thing for a moment. As far as I can see, there are two kinds of video game enjoyment:
A. Soothing Hand-eye coordination - you get this from fast-twitch jumping games like Mario and puzzlers like Tetris. See the block, tap a button, repeat. These quick repetition tasks provide the same kind of Zen stress relief that you can get from knitting or making pornographic doodles on a scrap of paper.
B. Imaginative Immersion - this is from games that let you pretend you are somewhere else and living as someone else, preferably someone who doesn't spend all day in a cubicle. These are your role playing games, adventure games, the same escapist pleasure that we get from movies and page-turner novels and schizophrenia.
Now, you've probably noticed that new versions of Mario and Tetris do not spark midnight riots in Japan these days. That first kind of games, once the entire point of having a console, are a dying breed on the new systems. The reason is obvious; we're now knee-deep in handheld game machines that do those simple button-tapping games better. Among a certain age group GBA's and DS's and PSP's are as common as cell phones.
Now he reaches gameplay. But wait, he wants to add "tetris and Mario do not spark raids on stores!!!!!" True, Mario and Tetris don't. We call them Halo and Madden.
And honestly there are games people buy for the console itself. You just want to pursue your point in exclusion of all else to persuade the reader of your unsupported idea.
Those simpler games now seem like a waste of consoles' power, and why play them tethered to your TV when you can take a GBA with you to be played in your bedroom or on the toilet or the bus or in the waiting room of the nipple-piercing parlor?
So consoles are left to butter their bread with the latter, with the immersion-type games, with the Final Fantasies and Grand Theft Autos and F.E.A.R., games that put you in a movie, basically. The competition here, then, is Hollywood. When teens are in the mood for a mobster story, the game industry hopes you'll be in the mood to play The Godfather game rather than watch the movie. The problem is that people can watch the movie version over and over and over again, there is a human element to the story that lets a person enjoy it all over again, 20 years later. Games really don't give you that.
Wait, huh? So you're saying they are in competition with other entertainment?
When WERE THEY NOT?
4. Well, now that consoles can display movie-quality graphics, video games will just become the new Hollywood. Gaming will be better than ever! Stop wasting my time, you talking red baboon ass.
Luke's X-Wing approaches the surface of the Death Star.
"Red Five, begin your attack run."
Luke swoops down into the trench. "It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon back ho-"
Turret laser bolts tear his X-Wing apart.
___________________________
Luke's X-Wing approaches the surface of the Death Star.
"Red Five, begin your attack run."
Luke swoops down into the trench. "It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon back home!"
Turret laser bolts miss by inches. He skims along the trench.
A Tie Fighter drops in behind him and blows his ship to ten thousand flaming pieces.
___________________________
Luke's X-Wing approaches the surface of the Death Star.
"Red Five, begin your attack run."
Luke swoops down into the trench. "It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon back home!"
Turret laser bolts miss by inches. He skims along the trench.
A Tie Fighter drops in behind him, shoots and misses. Luke approaches the exhaust shaft... fires a photon torpedo...
...and misses. The Death Star destroys the rebel base.
___________________________
Luke's X-Wing approaches the surface of the Death Star.
"Red Five, begin your attack run."
Luke swoops down into the trench. "It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon ba-"
Turret laser bolts tear his X-Wing apart.
___________________________
That's the exciting Star Wars finale, as played out on your home video game console. "It's just like living a movie! A plotless ten-hour movie edited by Michael Bay's retarded brother and running on a skipping DVD player!"
It's unfair to compare any movie game to a movie because films are relying on an art form (drama) with a thousand years of popularity under its belt. You put sympathetic humans on screen and tell a well-paced, exciting story and we escape into their adventure. But the director controls how the story unfolds, controls what you see and, if he knows what he's doing, delivers it to an audience based on a centuries-old formula designed to engage the emotions.
Games try to trump that with interactivity, letting you control the outcome. But the more control the gamer has, the more the pacing is ruined by brainless repetition (leaving the task to the gamer presents the possibility the gamer will fail 30 times in a row).
Seriously, he's just trying to hard. The point is you are the main...the movie is someone we can sympathize or relate, the game does not.
If they make the game tasks easier (as not to bring the story to a screeching halt), the gaming experience becomes much too short to justify the $50.00 $60.00 pricetag. And the more interactivity is taken away in favor of pacing and pre-rendered cinemas, the more they stop being video games.
Good to see diphead still not getting what the difference between being the hero and relating...but then again I point to he related novelty with Roy Orbison erotica.
Again, the novelty of getting to be Luke Skywalker has attracted gamers in droves. We were never really able to do that before. The experience of being able to stride down a hallway blowing up monsters with a rail gun was also new to a lot of you. But it comes to the same, doesn't it? The first time you play a level, the monster around the first corner is a surprise. After that, it's homework. It's memorizing, via pure repetition, bad guy placement and ammunition deposits and card keys. "Okay, kill the mutant behind the crate. Duck behind the dual doors. Wait for guard to walk out. Kill him, take his key. There's two Hellgoats in this next hall. Pick up the rockets..."
Every game since the dawn that is played against a set amount is always this moron. Thank you for describing absolutely nothing new. It's strange you got the immersion right, but destroyed it with your completely wrong time frame.
Is it any wonder that once we see the new, glossier FPS games that so few of us go back and play the old ones? What do the old ones have to offer once the experience has been memorized? And what do the new ones have to offer but new arrangements of hallways and glossier monsters and new stiffly-acted cut scenes that we'll watch exactly once before skipping past them?
This has nothing to do with nostalgia, no sir, nothing whatsoever...
Yes, I had a reflex drool response when I first saw the screens for the 360's Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter.
But each event in that game is still carefully scripted. Run up to the busted-out brick wall. Truck pulls up. Six enemy troops spill out. Shoot them. Run down the hallway... get killed. Start over. Run up to the busted-out brick wall again. Again wait for the truck to pull out. Kill the six enemy troops. Run down the hallway. Pick up the First Aid Kit...
Rinse. Repeat. Memorize.
Again, it's okay for a film to be scripted because you're in the hands of the director and charismatic actors who make you care about their situation. But other than the thrill of seeing what special effects a shiny new console can show off, what's the reward for playing a scripted game?
So wait...every game you play is exact memorization? Shit dude, I guess all my old game s are just a matter of me remembering placement...oh wait, has nothing to do with me...I should just program a bot. Still I don't see how the gaming industry will die again given this wasn't the reason the first, and hardly has bearing on what hurts the industry anyway.
Oh wait, this is akin to your analogy of games versus movies. Which is what every entertainment industry competes with.
5. Who cares about single player? It's multiplayer that makes these games worth playing. The reward is getting good at the game and thrashing your opponents, you foppish wide-brimmed asshat.
That's true... for a small, hard-core minority of gamers.
How many people do you personally know who play console games online? I'm not talking about the people you met online. I'm asking how many of your actual real-life game-having friends actually go online with their little headset thing like in the commercials?
Right now about 10% of current-gen gamers are online. That's all. Analysts say that by the end of the next-gen games lifespan, in 2011, less than 25% of the consoles will be used online..
And now multiplayer...his point being? You got me, aside from another rant.
I'm going to share a secret with you; the average video gamer isn't big on fist-pumping competition with strangers. That's the territory of the jocks and the scholarship-clutching Future Businessmen of America members. Among gamers, the Halo 2 teabaggers and Madden fanatics who insist on playing against a dozen strangers online are a small, hard-core faction.
That you can ignore. They see money there, but given only a bare hand full have struck gold and they only make the COMPETITVE STYLE games in this fashion, I still am wanting to see the point?
You think competition is against a superior computer that has to be dumbed down for you to win?
And yet, whole classes of games (specifically first-person shooters and fighting games) are more and more set up so that the single-player mode is nothing but a tutorial for the multiplayer. And I understand why; the industry sees a future where I pay $60 for a game and then pay another $20 a month to play it for the next two years. Look at the money Blizzard is making off World of Warcraft. Five million subscribers, at $15 a month.
Blizzard
The difference is that you can play WoW for days without ever interacting with another human; that's what the solo quests are for. It's online, but not necessarily multiplayer. You see, lots of us play video games as a way to alleviate the stress of dealing with people. If I have a bad day at the office and then go home and play Halo 2 online, I might run into the same type of asshole I just left at work. Petty feuds and cliques.
Isn't that akin to not wanting to go dancing but going to a dance club anyway?
Or even worse, I may get to where I have to practice a game, working to make my skills sharper and sharper so I can rub victory in the face of annoying teenagers I'll never meet, feeling the pressure to log more and more hours in the game so I don't embarrass myself in matches. I don't want to do that. I want to relax. I want to play.
I'm not alone. The numbers speak for themselves. If online play is what's going to save gaming, it won't save it in time for this generation.
Seriously, you need to get a man to butt fuck you while you complain about you hating it. You don't like something, unless someone is forcing you, don't play.
6. But the gaming industry is still growing, dung-hoarding Turd Baron. You're saying everybody's going to suddenly stop playing?
I'm saying both Sony and Microsoft will wind up losing money on their consoles this time around. Nintendo won't, because they quite frankly don't seem to have that much invested. I think the pool of gamers, for the first time in 20 years, will shrink.
The first problem is HD (high-definition) TV. These televisions with four or five-digit price tags are still in only 25% of homes. It's $1,000 to get a very bad (or very small) HDTV, and $10,000 to get a really nice one.
If we play it on the cheap side and get a $2,000 HDTV, and then buy our $600 PS3 console and two games and an extra controller... we're $3,000 into our next-gen investment.
So wait, how does Sony's problems relate to MS?
I know there are people willing to pay that. Their gleaming SUV's pass me on the highway every day. But think about this. The dominant machine, the Sony PS2, has shipped 103 million units as of the writing of this article. Of those, 70 million were sold after Sony dropped the price to $199 in May of 2002.
Get the picture? They dropped the price because sales were falling. Sales were falling because there were only 30 million customers willing to pay $300 for a game console. And now they're asking us to make ten times the investment most of us wouldn't make the first time?
So, how does this reflect on MS? Wait, is this like your beginning again, where you try to generalize?
Hello? Am I the only one who sees this? This is exactly like the HDTV movement, people a decade ago predicting that by 2005 every home would have a $2,000 HDTV in the living room. Who are these jackasses who think the upper edge of the middle class is 100 million households strong?
Well, if you had a point, you wouldn't be ranting to yourself.
7. But all they have to do is find new markets. You already said they're making games for older gamers, and new gamers are being born every day.
There are two sides to that coin, though. Yes, there's a new generation of gaming kids out there. But the thing is, the original video game generation is growing old. I know, because I'm one of them, an Original Gamer. I owned Pong as a toddler, an Atari 2600 in grade school and an NES in 1987. I've logged hours on the Sega Genesis, the Atari Jaguar, the NEC Turbographx 16, the SNES, a Sega Saturn, a 3D0, a Sony Playstation, a Casio Fungiver 5000, a 4-bit Toyota Gamemobile... you get the idea.
But I'm 30 now, worried with mortgages and job stress and coffin shopping. My peers all have their own children, the household toy budget spent on the offspring, not the adults.
Did you even have a point. Oh wait, games being spent on kids...possibly your first real point.
I know some of us still play games at 30, studies say about 25% of gamers are now over 35. But can you play games at 40 or 50 without looking like an intellectually-stunted manchild, there in your sweater vest, the control pad tangled in your long, gray, drool-soaked beard as the creeping hand of death stalks your every thought?
We Original Gamers, the hard core, bought every machine that came on the market for two decades. But for a whole lot of us OG's, the game consoles we own now will be the last we'll ever buy. There are millions of us, and it's just a matter of time.
And I mean it's literally a matter of time. I'll pop in a DVD because a movie only requires two hours from my busy schedule of work and home repairs and chasing kids off my lawn. Getting to the end of a video game, however, requires hours upon hours of play. Not because the story is hours long, mind you, but because getting through each scene requires practice and repetition and repetition and repetition, all in the hopes of seeing that exploding Death Star cutscene at the end.
Which is drowned by drivel.
A 10 year-old can come home from school in the afternoon and devote the rest of the day to the task of memorizing the exact sequence of finger twitches that will get him past the dark forces of the Empire. A college kid can do the same, often while high. Most employed and married adults cannot. If I'm right about this, the gaming industry is about to face its first real exodus of existing customers, a hard-core group they've relied upon for decades to snap up every new box on the shelf. We're leaving, because while we have grown up, gaming, in many ways, has not.
I know some of you Nintendo fans were screaming at your monitor in the last section, saying the $199 (or $249) Nintendo Wii is the low-cost answer to the affordability problem. The problem is Nintendo is still so neglectful of older gamers that it borders on hostility. Everything they showed at E3 starred a cartoon character, and the games that didn't (Madden and Red Steel) appear to be very bad games. Plus, I say the older you are, the less inclined you'll be to flail around the room with their new controller.
So the industry will die why again?
In Conclusion...
There's going to be a lot of money lost the next few years, a lot of articles written, a lot of panic, a lot of changes. And when gaming comes back, it will hopefully be different and innovative and based on something other than eye candy and the shock value of blood and guts and hookers. Hopefully it will allow for creativity from the players, and room for small, independent game makers to create content. Hopefully it will be something every working person can afford.
What will it look like? I for one am on record predicting that a massive expansion of the MMORPG market is on the horizon at some point, a new form of online play that relies less on competition and more on MySpace-style human interaction. But that's just me. As for what will fill the void in the mean time, well, no one thing has to fill it. Do you honeslty think there are fewer entertainment options now than the last time gaming went out of style in 1983?
We'll go Indie?
BWAHAHAHAHAHA...fucking A, this was a waste of time. And I agree with Spanky. this man is an annoying retard who's trying to be Maddox. I don't really know which is worse honestly, the stupid yabbering part or him trying to ape Maddox; which is not a goal worth pursuing.