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The battle of Geonosis diverges from the actions that actually happened in several ways:

1: Best case scenario for the Republic: the entire CIS leadership is killed or captured before they can make it off-world.

2: Next best case scenario for the Republic: Dooku fails to escape, but the rest of the CIS leadership succeeds.

3: Worst case scenario for the Republic: Not only does Dooku and the rest of the CIS leadership successfully escape like they did in the actual battle, but the battle itself is transformed through the chances of war from a tactical Republic victory to a smashing Republic defeat-in particular, the Jedi who survived the arena are all but wiped out.

4: Interesting scenario: Instead of simply losing his hand, Anakin actually dies on Geonosis.

How would all of these points of divergence affect the Clone Wars and the history of the galaxy?

1: Best case scenario for the Republic: the entire CIS leadership is killed or captured before they can make it off-world.

I assume that there is sufficient support for the war among the organisations themselves that whatever new leaders arise quickly pick up the cause as well. Also what is essentially the Republic invading a world and assassinating/arresting the senior financial leaders of the galaxy pretty much makes a war inevitable anyway. Not having Dooku to guide the war to the path dictated by Palpatine however may make things turn out differently however.

2: Next best case scenario for the Republic: Dooku fails to escape, but the rest of the CIS leadership succeeds.

Same again, war is inevitable but with Palpatine only guiding events from one side of the field the war may be resolved diplomatically if the Separatists are able to run things their own way.

3: Worst case scenario for the Republic: Not only does Dooku and the rest of the CIS leadership successfully escape like they did in the actual battle, but the battle itself is transformed through the chances of war from a tactical Republic victory to a smashing Republic defeat-in particular, the Jedi who survived the arena are all but wiped out.

There were still relatively few actual Jedi on the planet and only an insignificant portion of the new army so the Republic isn't at that much of a disadvantage. The main impact would be the deaths of the senior Jedi Masters, if Windu and Yoda are among the dead then Palpatine may make his move a lot earlier and with much less to fear. Also if the Republic is defeated then ObiWan and Anakin are dead as well, which changes the course of the galaxy immensely as there’s no one to stop the Empire in 20 years time.

4: Interesting scenario: Instead of simply losing his hand, Anakin actually dies on Geonosis.

Windu chops Palpatine into bits before being shot for treason? Alternatively if your of the 'he let him win to turn Anakin' variety then it simply boils down to there being no Luke to stop the Empire again.

Darth Tanner wrote:Windu chops Palpatine into bits before being shot for treason? Alternatively if your of the 'he let him win to turn Anakin' variety then it simply boils down to there being no Luke to stop the Empire again.

Small problem there - there's no Anakin to tell Windu that Palpatine is the sith lord they've been looking for.
Even though the Jedi Councils investigation had pointed to the Chancellors direction it was believed to be an associate of his, Palpatine wasn't a major suspect, it's highly likely he would put Order 66 into effect before they could put two and two together.

Windu et al were en route to "convince" Palpatine to set aside his emergency powers when Anakin warned them that Palpatine and Sidious were one and the same. The end result (i.e. the duel) is likely to be the same.

Small problem there - there's no Anakin to tell Windu that Palpatine is the sith lord they've been looking for.

Windu was already on route to arrest Palpatine when Anakin told him he thought he might be a Sith.

Darth Nostril wrote:

Darth Tanner wrote:Windu chops Palpatine into bits before being shot for treason? Alternatively if your of the 'he let him win to turn Anakin' variety then it simply boils down to there being no Luke to stop the Empire again.

Small problem there - there's no Anakin to tell Windu that Palpatine is the sith lord they've been looking for.
Even though the Jedi Councils investigation had pointed to the Chancellors direction it was believed to be an associate of his, Palpatine wasn't a major suspect, it's highly likely he would put Order 66 into effect before they could put two and two together.

Doesn't matter. Windu was going to Palpatine to get him to give up his emergency powers after Greivous' death not because he was a Sith Lord.

However the idea that the timeline would be changed so little by Anakin's death is ludicrous, Palpatine's seduction of Anakin is the only driving force behind episode III. If he's not trying to do that, he's going to be using drastically different tactics.

Darth Tanner wrote: [case1] *snip* I assume that there is sufficient support for the war among the organisations themselves that whatever new leaders arise quickly pick up the cause as well. Also what is essentially the Republic invading a world and assassinating/arresting the senior financial leaders of the galaxy pretty much makes a war inevitable anyway. Not having Dooku to guide the war to the path dictated by Palpatine however may make things turn out differently however.

I'd have to disagree strongly with that. Palpatine was able to co-opt the trade federation's leadership well enough. There's no reason to assume he'd have any problem getting a hand on the CIS's strings again. Remember that Grievous was not even around for the battle of Geonosis, and was taking orders directly from Palpatine by the time of ROTS.

-AHMAD

The last scenario is the absolute best for Palpatine in the long run. With Anakin gone, he's not only succeeded in conquering the galaxy, but winning on the cosmic plane. He'll be unstoppable. He might be dissapointed that Anakin won't become his apprentice, but there are always others he can use.

BountyHunterSAx wrote:

Darth Tanner wrote: [case1] *snip* I assume that there is sufficient support for the war among the organisations themselves that whatever new leaders arise quickly pick up the cause as well. Also what is essentially the Republic invading a world and assassinating/arresting the senior financial leaders of the galaxy pretty much makes a war inevitable anyway. Not having Dooku to guide the war to the path dictated by Palpatine however may make things turn out differently however.

I'd have to disagree strongly with that. Palpatine was able to co-opt the trade federation's leadership well enough. There's no reason to assume he'd have any problem getting a hand on the CIS's strings again. Remember that Grievous was not even around for the battle of Geonosis, and was taking orders directly from Palpatine by the time of ROTS.

-AHMAD

Actually, I believe there's something that said Grievous was lurking on Geonosis somewhere at the time - his legs at least are a geonosian design, after all - however, he wasn't Supreme Commander. I think Sev'rance Tann was meant to be de-facto Supreme Commander of the nascent Confederacy (I may be wrong; I've blocked most of Galactic Battlegrounds from my memory) at the time, and she was presumably aware of and in league with Darth Sidious.

One wonders if Gunray was aware he was working for Darth Sidious at this time, or if he really did go to Tyrannus for help.

Darth Tanner wrote: I assume that there is sufficient support for the war among the organisations themselves that whatever new leaders arise quickly pick up the cause as well. Also what is essentially the Republic invading a world and assassinating/arresting the senior financial leaders of the galaxy pretty much makes a war inevitable anyway. Not having Dooku to guide the war to the path dictated by Palpatine however may make things turn out differently however.

I'd also be willing to bet that the war would go much better on a purely military level for the Republic. Taking out the enemy's leadership right away would lead to confused scurrying about that the Republic could exploit.

Crazedwraith wrote:

Darth Nostril wrote:

Darth Tanner wrote:Windu chops Palpatine into bits before being shot for treason? Alternatively if your of the 'he let him win to turn Anakin' variety then it simply boils down to there being no Luke to stop the Empire again.

Small problem there - there's no Anakin to tell Windu that Palpatine is the sith lord they've been looking for.
Even though the Jedi Councils investigation had pointed to the Chancellors direction it was believed to be an associate of his, Palpatine wasn't a major suspect, it's highly likely he would put Order 66 into effect before they could put two and two together.

Doesn't matter. Windu was going to Palpatine to get him to give up his emergency powers after Greivous' death not because he was a Sith Lord.

However the idea that the timeline would be changed so little by Anakin's death is ludicrous, Palpatine's seduction of Anakin is the only driving force behind episode III. If he's not trying to do that, he's going to be using drastically different tactics.

Windu was en route to arrest the chancellor if he refused to surrender power back to the Senate, he had no idea that Palpatine was a sith lord without Anakins warning.
He and the other masters marched in there knowing full well they were up against a sith lord, without that warning it could have gone a lot worse.

Just to bring it up, but in the last scenario, where Anakin is dead, Obi-Wan would probably have died at some point as well, if not directly after Dooku killed Anakin. So there would be no one to defeat Grievous and hence no reason for Windu to even go to Palpatine to demand he relinquish power.

havokeff wrote:Just to bring it up, but in the last scenario, where Anakin is dead, Obi-Wan would probably have died at some point as well, if not directly after Dooku killed Anakin. So there would be no one to defeat Grievous and hence no reason for Windu to even go to Palpatine to demand he relinquish power.

Someone else would've defeated Grievous. Another Master, maybe Windu, even.

NecronLord wrote: Actually, I believe there's something that said Grievous was lurking on Geonosis somewhere at the time

I think that was in Republic Commando, or at least referenced. He was supposed to be holding back the jedi sent after some of the seperatist leaders and making very short work of them. Something along those lines, anyway. So the the Republic would, according to the OP's possible scenarios, have a shot of taking out most, if not all, of the big movers and shakers in the Confederacy. Then again, I may be placing more credit than deserved on the Geonosis group

In any case, I think Grievous going would really put the screws on the Confederacy. Last I remember, he was one of their best assets.

Edit:

Ekiqa wrote:Someone else would've defeated Grievous. Another Master, maybe Windu, even.

Wasn't it said somewhere that Obi-Wan was the only one who was able to defeat Grievous? As I don't know the quote and am operating off some rather shoddy memory, I could be mistaken. I remember it being something about Obi-Wan's fighting style being the reason why only he could win, though the quote may have been biased or something to begin with. Anyway, I have a hard time imagining one of the Jedi not force pushing him off a cliff into oblivion after Windu smashed in his chest

NecronLord wrote: I've blocked most of Galactic Battlegrounds from my memory

Hey! Me too! High five!

-Aaron

Ekiqa wrote:

havokeff wrote:Just to bring it up, but in the last scenario, where Anakin is dead, Obi-Wan would probably have died at some point as well, if not directly after Dooku killed Anakin. So there would be no one to defeat Grievous and hence no reason for Windu to even go to Palpatine to demand he relinquish power.

Someone else would've defeated Grievous. Another Master, maybe Windu, even.

Really? Then why didn't they? Just biding their time? Letting enough Jedi get killed fighting him to throw him into a false sense of security?
And as much as I like Windu and don't think he is dead , he isn't fucking magic. He was able to defeat Palpatine(or just hang with him, depending on what you believe) because he had a very specific style of combat that allowed him to do so. It doesn't mean he was Superman and could tackle any opponent, other wise they would have just sent Windu after everyone.

born in shadow wrote:Wasn't it said somewhere that Obi-Wan was the only one who was able to defeat Grievous? As I don't know the quote and am operating off some rather shoddy memory, I could be mistaken. I remember it being something about Obi-Wan's fighting style being the reason why only he could win, though the quote may have been biased or something to begin with. Anyway, I have a hard time imagining one of the Jedi not force pushing him off a cliff into oblivion after Windu smashed in his chest

Yeah. Something about his overly defensive fighting style IIRC. I think the source is the book before ROTS novelization... Labyrinth of Evil?

The source is the RoTS Novelization. Windu is giving Obi Wan a pep talk prior to the campaign to hunt Greivous down.

Count Dooku himself said though that in order to defeat Jedi that Greivous needed the element of surprise on his side, and that he had to cultivate a strong reputation so that Jedi would fear him. In a training duel, Dooku told Greivous flat out that he didn't have a chance of beating Windu or Yoda. I think that happened in Labyrinth of Evil.

Coiler wrote:1: Best case scenario for the Republic: the entire CIS leadership is killed or captured before they can make it off-world.

War happens. Palpatine orchestrates war in such a fashion to gain more powers to himself, one way or other. Dooku's death means his attempts to find a new apprentice will intensify.

Coiler wrote:2: Next best case scenario for the Republic: Dooku fails to escape, but the rest of the CIS leadership succeeds.

Same as above.

Coiler wrote:Worst case scenario for the Republic: Not only does Dooku and the rest of the CIS leadership successfully escape like they did in the actual battle, but the battle itself is transformed through the chances of war from a tactical Republic victory to a smashing Republic defeat-in particular, the Jedi who survived the arena are all but wiped out.

4: Interesting scenario: Instead of simply losing his hand, Anakin actually dies on Geonosis.

If that includes Anakin and Obi-Wan, Mace and Yoda, Palpatine is greatly empowered. War proceeds, Dooku and Palpatine accelerate their plans and soon bring the Empire into existence. Due to Dooku's possible treachery, it might be that it comes to a standoff between D. and P.

However, all viable Jedi opponents to Palpatine are already wiped out, so no problem for either of the Sith, or both of them, to usher the Imperial rule.

Luke, etc. never happen. Empire proceeds. Possibly some Jedi manage to escape and start forming an opposition to ,.the Empire and it's Emperor (no matter who, Palps or Dooku) later on, training someone to take him on.

There is no way in hell that Dooku overthrows Palpatine in any scenario.

havokeff wrote:There is no way in hell that Dooku overthrows Palpatine in any scenario.

I know. But this is the "Episode III" Dooku. If Anakin dies, who knows what might become of Dooku? Palpatine might not consider him 'waste material' as there's no immediate replacement, and thus teach him more and more of the power, until Dooku becomes dangerous enough.

In fact, isn't it a common story between the Sith for the disciple to try and - in case of success - kill the master? Palpatine killed Plagueis, Dooku thought or plotted to kill Palpatine, Anakin plotted to kill Palpatine (and killed him eventually, hehe).

Darth Nostril wrote:Windu was en route to arrest the chancellor if he refused to surrender power back to the Senate, he had no idea that Palpatine was a sith lord without Anakins warning.
He and the other masters marched in there knowing full well they were up against a sith lord, without that warning it could have gone a lot worse.

Worse how?

Ep III:

"You're under arrest, 'my Lord'!"

*Chop* *Cut* *Zzap*

[Jedi dead, Anakin evil]

Alternate version:

"You're under arrest, Chancellor!"

*Chop* *Cut* *Zzap*

[Jedi dead, no Anakin]

NecronLord wrote:

BountyHunterSAx wrote:

Darth Tanner wrote: [case1] *snip* I assume that there is sufficient support for the war among the organisations themselves that whatever new leaders arise quickly pick up the cause as well. Also what is essentially the Republic invading a world and assassinating/arresting the senior financial leaders of the galaxy pretty much makes a war inevitable anyway. Not having Dooku to guide the war to the path dictated by Palpatine however may make things turn out differently however.

I'd have to disagree strongly with that. Palpatine was able to co-opt the trade federation's leadership well enough. There's no reason to assume he'd have any problem getting a hand on the CIS's strings again. Remember that Grievous was not even around for the battle of Geonosis, and was taking orders directly from Palpatine by the time of ROTS.

-AHMAD

Actually, I believe there's something that said Grievous was lurking on Geonosis somewhere at the time - his legs at least are a geonosian design, after all - however, he wasn't Supreme Commander. I think Sev'rance Tann was meant to be de-facto Supreme Commander of the nascent Confederacy (I may be wrong; I've blocked most of Galactic Battlegrounds from my memory) at the time, and she was presumably aware of and in league with Darth Sidious.

One wonders if Gunray was aware he was working for Darth Sidious at this time, or if he really did go to Tyrannus for help.

I remember Gunray in LoE complaining about how Sidious has mistreated after Naboo and then went to Dooku for help. Mr. Gunray had quite a nasty surprise when he found out Sidious was issuing orders to Dooku.

#3 -
The death of the Jedi on Geonosis assures Sidious's victory. No one else is even close to the future-Emperor in power.

#4 -
Anakin's death wouldn't slow down Sidious trying to make him his apprentice.

He could just have him cloned, and if the clone had the same potiental, raise him as his next apprentice/succesor/son.

The war would have gone differently, probably with another Master killing Grevious (if it wasn't the Clonetroopers), and Dooku would have been killed by Sidious, but the end result would be a Sith Lord no one could stop ruling the galaxy. Oh, and then passing it on to an even more powerful Sith.

Actually, would the Jedi even have found Grievous with out Palpatine providing the intel? Wasn't the whole point of that ploy to separate Anakin from Obi-Wan to further his fall and keep him away from the one person that might have been able to prevent him turning?

havokeff wrote:Actually, would the Jedi even have found Grievous with out Palpatine providing the intel? Wasn't the whole point of that ploy to separate Anakin from Obi-Wan to further his fall and keep him away from the one person that might have been able to prevent him turning?

Indeed, Palpatine leaked his location though Clone Intelligence.

Darth Hoth wrote:

Darth Nostril wrote:Windu was en route to arrest the chancellor if he refused to surrender power back to the Senate, he had no idea that Palpatine was a sith lord without Anakins warning.
He and the other masters marched in there knowing full well they were up against a sith lord, without that warning it could have gone a lot worse.

Worse how?

Ep III:

"You're under arrest, 'my Lord'!"

*Chop* *Cut* *Zzap*

[Jedi dead, Anakin evil]

Alternate version:

"You're under arrest, Chancellor!"

*Chop* *Cut* *Zzap*

[Jedi dead, no Anakin]

But the entire reason Windu didn't kill palpatine was because of Anakins rather untimely interference. If Anakin wasn't there we would have had a horribly mutilated an DEAD sith lord instead of a horribly mutilated and alive one.

#1 and 2 are hard to predict, though possibly slower fall for anakin there (Killing Dooku in cold blood was a noticable step there)
With Anain dead Dooku might have killed the chancellor after kidnapping him. After all, sith apprentices adn power right?
Dead Anakin might mean a more sunny republic if Windu wins.
With no jedi whatsoever the republic would be absolutely doomed.