The Battle of Bilbringi

[KraytKing]

One thing that has irked me for some time is the Imperial defeat at Bilbringi after Thrawn's death. The New Republic fleet is out of position, surprised, and outnumbered two to one in battleships and even more in escort warships. How could they pull a victory out of that? And why would Thrawn set up a trap like that without making certain that he had the firepower to win it?

I'm working on a piece where Pellaeon is a bit more active following Thrawn's death and is able to win the battle (I'll post it if anyone cares). But for now, what does the board think is a reasonable outcome of the Battle of Bilbringi based on the starting conditions?

[Eternal_Freedom]

IIRC it wasn't so much that the Republic clawed out a win it was that the Imperial fleet under Pellaeon bugged out immediately, leaving just the fixed defences to stave off the Republic ships. I don't think it was stated in canon but I believe this is Pellaeon thinking he is nowhere near as good as a commander as Ackbar was (present on Home One).

If Pellaeon had held his nerve I suspect it would have turned out either as a fairly decisive Imperial victory (at best) or a bloody stalemate/pyrrhic victory for either side (at worst), which outcome it is depends on just how badly outgunned the Republic fleet was.

[KraytKing]

The book describes it as twenty four Star Destroyers arrayed against eleven MC80s and one captured Imperial II. Even assuming they're MC80Bs, they should be badly outgunned. Additionally, the book describes the battle as having turned against the Empire in the end, with Pellaeon thinking that Thrawn could have found victory, but no one else.

I like your interpretation that it was a morale game from the bottom all the way to the top. Pellaeon is the wrong guy to have as a second in command. He's too much of a follower: he retreated after Endor, he obeyed incompetent commanders, then went and found a new one to follow when they inevitably died. Thrawn should have had a more independent captain of his flagship, one that would carry on the fight if Thrawn were to die. Which I suppose brings us back to Thrawn's main flaw, that he had too much confidence in himself and no trust in his inferiors. If he had shared contingency plans or ideas for campaigns after Bilbringi, things might have been different.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Yeah, given that proportion of firepower the Republic should have been stomped, especially since they had Interdictors preventing escape.

Of course, Thrawn should have designated a second in command on a different ship, since the most likely reason Thrawn being incapacitated and/or killed would be the Chimera being damaged or destroyed, and Pellaeon being about ten feet from Thrawn would have meant he got caught in the damage as well.

[Crazedwraith]

IIR the Thawn Trilogy and Isard's Revenge correctly, they'd escaped the ambush before Thrawn died. Karrde and his smugglers and Rogue Squadron were playing havoc behind the Imperial lines.

So Peallon was both shocked and demoralised and facing a knotty tactical problem and bottled it.

[Patroklos]

Is it ever outright stated that Pellaeon is the second in command for all of Thrawns forces? Just because you are the captain of the flagship doesn’t mean you have any authority over the formation. In fact it is almost never this way in real life. You are just the captain of the ship the Admiral decided to fly his flag from. Especially in this case when the flagship is the same class as dozens of othe ships in the formation. It comes with gravitas sure, but not actual rank or authority above and beyond normal.

It’s odd that there are no admirals of various grades between Thrawn and Pellaeon given the number of ships present. In fact this likely explains the defeat if the organization is indeed that flat. If every one of this 24 ISD COs is of a rough seniority with Pellaeon at the rank of Captain without any designated ranking intermediary commander, once Thrawn is dead they may not be an overriding imperative for any one of them to accept one of their number as in charge. Even if there was a will to cooperate, the lack of an overtly ranking officer might have simply made it impossible to establish a new C2 structure on the fly and thus the best course was to withdraw and hammer that out instead of possible put youself into a compromising situation.

It should also be noted that the nominal Imperial state is long gone by now. Normal organizational career progression isn’t probably a thing and much of the normal military order like respecting rank and authority is probably via momentum rather than a functioning service culture. Think of halfway between nuBSG when the enlisted and other junior personnel challenge the normal military order from the pre-attack colonial government system that distributed privileges and authority based on social and bureaucratic incentives that no longer existed. I imagine that most of these ISD CO’s are attached to Thrawn more via personal connection rather than chain of command, and when he was gone they decided to go their own way.

[KraytKing]

There should have been another admiral somewhere, but Pellaeon has the advantage in this particular situation by being on the command ship. The basis of my exploration into the topic: when Thrawn is stabbed, Pellaeon immediately deploys stormtroopers and locks down communications, insisting that the Grand Admiral is recovering. The rest of the fleet is never told that anything eventful occurred on the Chimaera, and the bridge crew and medical crew that may have witnessed it have three stormtroopers watching over each of their shoulders to make sure they don't talk about it. That is where having a skilled captain would come in handy. Even if the second in command was on another ship, Pellaeon could effectively seize power.

[Patroklos]

I doubt it would work that way. Thrawn was shown to be very personal and hands on in command style. A comms blackout from the top would be more confusing than the truth. I am sure people would have noticed that drastic change, if for no other reason than Pellaeon’s stodgy and unimaginative fingerprints would be all over the following orders.

[The Romulan Republic]

One thing that has irked me for some time is the Imperial defeat at Bilbringi after Thrawn's death. The New Republic fleet is out of position, surprised, and outnumbered two to one in battleships and even more in escort warships. How could they pull a victory out of that? And why would Thrawn set up a trap like that without making certain that he had the firepower to win it?

I'm working on a piece where Pellaeon is a bit more active following Thrawn's death and is able to win the battle (I'll post it if anyone cares). But for now, what does the board think is a reasonable outcome of the Battle of Bilbringi based on the starting conditions?

The real problem was not Thrawn's death- that would cause some confusion and demoralization, sure, but if Thrawn had dropped dead but everything else remained the same, it would still in all likelihood have been an Imperial victory, if a bloody one (even assuming the usual qualitative superiority of the Rebels/NR personnel). Nor was the problem that they lacked sufficient numbers to beat the Republic fleet.

What killed them was the intervention of the Smuggler Alliance, which hit the Imperial fleet unexpectedly from the rear while they were in position trapping the Republic fleet. That punched a hole in their lines, allowing Republic ships to slip through in large numbers and start blowing up the ship yards, forcing Thrawn to pull even more ships out of position to protect the ship yards.

They were already losing before Thrawn died. His death simply put the nail in the coffin of any slim hope of salvaging the situation.

[KraytKing]

Well that's another thing that pissed me off. How the hell did a bunch of criminals, not even pirates that might have stolen some real warships, get together enough force to kill a Golan II as quickly as they did? They didn't hit the battle line, they went for the stations far in the Imperial rear, so the battle would have been unaffected if Thrawn hadn't redeployed warships. And why would he need to, given that his three remaining Golan IIs are about as powerful as Star Destroyers, if memory serves.

[KraytKing]

I doubt it would work that way. Thrawn was shown to be very personal and hands on in command style. A comms blackout from the top would be more confusing than the truth. I am sure people would have noticed that drastic change, if for no other reason than Pellaeon’s stodgy and unimaginative fingerprints would be all over the following orders.

True, all. Perhaps a blackout wouldn't be necessary, but rather censoring to make sure all communications are battle-related.

[Batman]

They weren't losing as such but even Thrawn clearly didn't think things were going his way. 'We're not defeated yet. Not by a long shot' isn't exactly a 'we've got this easily' statement

[The Romulan Republic]

Well that's another thing that pissed me off. How the hell did a bunch of criminals, not even pirates that might have stolen some real warships, get together enough force to kill a Golan II as quickly as they did? They didn't hit the battle line, they went for the stations far in the Imperial rear, so the battle would have been unaffected if Thrawn hadn't redeployed warships. And why would he need to, given that his three remaining Golan IIs are about as powerful as Star Destroyers, if memory serves.

Large, well-armed pirate fleets have been a thing historically, and its not impossible that in the chaos of the Empire's collapse, sizable private fleets could be amassed. While I don't recall Karrde's fleet having any capital ships, it did have military-grade vessels IIRC, with multiple individual members being able to field fleets of dozens of light ships, and Karrde's own ship (I think) was equipped with turbolasers.

Its simply the perspective of the 20th/21st. Century that makes us think of criminals as being unable to gather the firepower to challenge professional navies.

Edit: IIRC they also had coordinated support from Rogue Squadron when they broke out.

[KraytKing]

I'm fine with large, well armed pirate fleets in the years following Endor, but as you said, no capital ships were mentioned. Furthermore, a smuggler doesn't exactly want a big, ostentatious Star Destroyer when they sneak through customs. So they have some very well-armed freighters that look unarmed, which limits the amount of weaponry they can actually carry. I can't imagine they would make a difference in a battle of three dozen Star Destroyers, not when one side is already outnumbered two to one.

Karrde's ship had like three or four turbolasers. Enough to match a single battery of the sixty mounted on an Imperial I, let alone the Imperial IIs or Golan IIs he faced at Bilbringi.

[Gandalf]

Why wouldn't some smugglers want a Star Destroyer? It's a hell of a way to assert a place in a black economy.

[FaxModem1]

I'm fine with large, well armed pirate fleets in the years following Endor, but as you said, no capital ships were mentioned. Furthermore, a smuggler doesn't exactly want a big, ostentatious Star Destroyer when they sneak through customs. So they have some very well-armed freighters that look unarmed, which limits the amount of weaponry they can actually carry. I can't imagine they would make a difference in a battle of three dozen Star Destroyers, not when one side is already outnumbered two to one.

Karrde's ship had like three or four turbolasers. Enough to match a single battery of the sixty mounted on an Imperial I, let alone the Imperial IIs or Golan IIs he faced at Bilbringi.

For all their firepower, it should be noted that Stardestroyers are meant to fire weapons in broadsides or forward. This leaves them with a hell of an opening in their engines, and Thrawn was maneuvering his fleet to deal with the Rebels/New Republic. That can leave you open to surprise attack.

In a critical moment, a few ships being disabled by having a surprise flotilla of gunrunners and smugglers can make all the difference.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, ISDs aren't optimized for dealing with attacks from the rear. Although that doesn't really say much about the effectiveness of Golans against such an attack.

Why wouldn't some smugglers want a Star Destroyer? It's a hell of a way to assert a place in a black economy.

It also takes a lot of personnel to man and maintain, and paints a big target on your back if you're running around stirring up shit in a proper warship. It might be worth it for a major pirate fleet in a region/era without a strong stable government, though.

I'm fine with large, well armed pirate fleets in the years following Endor, but as you said, no capital ships were mentioned. Furthermore, a smuggler doesn't exactly want a big, ostentatious Star Destroyer when they sneak through customs. So they have some very well-armed freighters that look unarmed, which limits the amount of weaponry they can actually carry. I can't imagine they would make a difference in a battle of three dozen Star Destroyers, not when one side is already outnumbered two to one.

Depends where and when they hit, and how much support they got from the Republic fleet, I'd think.

Karrde's ship had like three or four turbolasers. Enough to match a single battery of the sixty mounted on an Imperial I, let alone the Imperial IIs or Golan IIs he faced at Bilbringi.

Any numbers on the relative firepower of those turbolasers? ISD turbolasers aren't the heaviest individual guns ever built. It might be that Karrde decided to pack as much punch as he could into a few batteries, while the ISD spread its greater firepower out over far more individual batteries, so it could engage more targets simultaneously.

And if many of Karrde's ships were similarly armed, then several dozen of them operating together could very well inflict substantial damage on a Golan platform, especially with the advantage of surprise. Enough at least to leave it vulnerable for a follow-up strike by the New Republic. Which is pretty much what appears to have happened.

[The Romulan Republic]

Also, out of curiosity, what is the source for the compositions of the fleet? In the books, types of vessels present in the Imperial fleet are listed (star destroyers, strike cruisers, etc.), but not the number of each type. Pretty sure there were multiple (three?) Golans, and multiple interdictors, as well as the Chimaera (an ISD), but nothing very specific beyond that. The composition of the Smuggler and Republic fleets is even more vague, though IIRC we know from the text that Ackbar's command ship, Rogue One and other Republic fighters were present, plus multiple Republic Assault Frigates, and multiple smuggler vessels (though now I come to think of it, NOT Karrde's command ship, since he was at Wayland).

I don't really doubt the numbers given in this thread, but I'm curious as to the source.

[KraytKing]

Essential Atlas and Warfare are my sources, but I'm pretty sure they talk about it in Last Command. And Karrde's turbolasers are comparable to those on a Star Destroyer in power. If anything, I'd expect the opposite, given that he wants to actually haul cargo. But I guess a bulk freighter is pretty big.

[Solauren]

Oh, let's see...

Most of the Smuggler's Coalition was within the shipyard itself, and opened fire on the Imperial fleet. The Smuggler's Coalition was originally there to steal the CrystalGrav Field Sensor Trap at the shipyards.

One would assume that they had enough firepower to handle the Shipyards security, at least.

In any event, that ramped up the firepower against the Empire considerably.

And, even Thrawn 'sounded grim' right before he was assassinated. It was probably down to 'destroy the Rebel fleet but lose the Shipyard' or 'protect the shipyard and take alot of damage from the Rebel fleet'.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yup. The best even Thrawn could reasonably hope to achieve at that point was a situation where both sides were crippled, not the crushing victory he had planned for.

[KraytKing]

Hold up. The smuggler fleet attacked a Golan II at the yards, not the fleet. The fleet was deliberately placed far from the yards. Smugglers only came in contact with Star Destroyers because Thrawn sent the Star Destroyers back to defend the battle stations.

And how exactly did the New Republic fight its way out of the ambush? Outnumbered two to one and with more Imperial support ships than NR support, and facing a near englobement to boot, they would have had to pull serious magic out of their collective ass to get to a point where Thrawn isn't going to just be managing a massacre. They didn't have other warships to pull out of hyperspace. They had Rogue Squadron, which was facing AT LEAST 2-1 odds. With the sheer volume of fire pouring out of those Star Destroyers,warships optimized for firing into an englobement, their fleet should have been disabled quickly. If a Star Destroyer is vulnerable to ambush from behind, then it is because it is a superlative in frontal assault.

[Coop D'etat]

My recollection for the ending was that the two fleets were at rough parity at the time of the retreat, with the NR fleeting having the tactical momentum and superior positioning due to the unexpected attack on the shipyards. This suggests that either the Atlas entry for the number of heavy combatants was wrong, or perhaps that the New Republic fleet made up for the deficiency in Star Destroyer equivalents with having a much more robust compliment of smaller craft (as seems to be traditional in Rebel Alliance/New Republic formations compared to the Destroyer-heavy Imperials. A rough parity in fleet strength also befits Thrawn's style, which tended towards economy of force and counting his own presence at the scene as a significant force multiplier when making assessments of relative combat power.

I also think I recall that it was mentioned in a later book that the New Republic showed up in much greater than expected strength at Bilbringi, something Thrawn was capable of handling, but would have presented difficulties to a lesser commander.

[Lord Revan]

Why wouldn't some smugglers want a Star Destroyer? It's a hell of a way to assert a place in a black economy.

As it was pointed out before a star destroyer is one hells of attention grabber and a smart smuggler plans for the eventually that things will go back to a reasonble "normal" state of affairs, during which a major warship like an ISD would be a liability. A smuggler would want a ship that you could potentially park at any non-resistricted starport in the galaxy and not drawn attention.

[KraytKing]

I'm fine with large, well armed pirate fleets in the years following Endor, but as you said, no capital ships were mentioned. Furthermore, a smuggler doesn't exactly want a big, ostentatious Star Destroyer when they sneak through customs. So they have some very well-armed freighters that look unarmed, which limits the amount of weaponry they can actually carry. I can't imagine they would make a difference in a battle of three dozen Star Destroyers, not when one side is already outnumbered two to one.

Karrde's ship had like three or four turbolasers. Enough to match a single battery of the sixty mounted on an Imperial I, let alone the Imperial IIs or Golan IIs he faced at Bilbringi.

For all their firepower, it should be noted that Stardestroyers are meant to fire weapons in broadsides or forward. This leaves them with a hell of an opening in their engines, and Thrawn was maneuvering his fleet to deal with the Rebels/New Republic. That can leave you open to surprise attack.

In a critical moment, a few ships being disabled by having a surprise flotilla of gunrunners and smugglers can make all the difference.

As I said already, this acknowledges that his fleet was optimized for the ambush he had set up. It should not have failed so miserably. The New Republic should have been losing ships left and right when the smugglers arrived, and that would have been sufficient to stop the bleeding and maybe allow for an attack on the Interdictor screen. If that fails, three Star Destroyers maneuver around, paste the smugglers, and the other twenty or so keep their forward arcs, their most powerful, trained on the englobed Rebel cruisers. The ambush was using Imperial strengths perfectly, and somehow failed.