The effects of life-extension drugs on society and economics

[Feil]

Postulate a future human society that possesses drugs or technology that allows those who are wealthy enough to afford them to remain physically and mentally active for hundreds - perhaps thousands - of years. (Examples: Warhammer 40,000; the Honorverse (David Weber); the Herris Serrano series (Elizabeth Moon); etc.)

In this thread, I hope to analyze and debate the likely effects on the society of this drug, the problems, the attempted solutions, the political, social, military, and economic ramifications, etc.

The first thing that comes to mind is that if the treatment becomes commonly available, a Malthusian crisis is inevitable. Even if people only have two children each, it will be centuries before the natural death rate catches up to the birth rate again, and in that period civilization will have collapsed under the weight of a population many times larger than it can sustain. Supply will have to be limited, either naturally (manufacturing methods cause small supply, and the huge demand makes the price too high for all but the most wealthy and powerful) or artificially, by government edict or by popular hatred of the drug (perhaps religiously inspired).

Any life-long political or corporate post will be a significant problem if the treatment is available. Imagine the SCOTUS, but with most of the judges having served since the 18th century... and likely to keep on serving until the 28th. Or the CEOs and boards of major corporations being there forever. Assassination would have to become the norm, as the children of the rich and powerful vied for scarce positions of wealth and power that were filled by the past generations' powerful. The poor would face tremendous downward social movement, as those wealthy children who did not choose to try to off their uncles instead took positions of lesser power within companies, eventually displacing everyone from every position they were willing to fill. There would be similar problems in the military, as admirals and generals stopped dying off or getting booted out for old age.

One would suspect that the natural outcome of this would be class struggle and revolution - perhaps as often as every other generation, as the downtrodden of the last regime became the immortals of the next. Preventing this would necessitate either very, very tiny supply - so small as to be almost nonexistant, or somehow sustaining civilization long enough for the death rate to go back up to normal again.

Thoughts, anyone?

[NecronLord]

In at least two of those settings, space travel, and not just space travel, but FTL space travel, makes Malthusian DOOOOM predictions an irrelevance. New opportunities on the colonies for all! Of course, in 40K it's also available to virtually no one, too.

[Jadeite]

I've always thought the best solution to the problems that would come with life extension technology would be to adopt the O'Neill plan for space colonization. Forget Mars, orbiting habitats are a better solution for housing humanity. If followed, the plan would give humanity access to almost unlimited energy and resources, and I doubt you'll have very much societal strife when there's enough resources for everyone to have a standard of living that surpasses the modern US (with all the economic opportunities that would acccompany it).

Personally, I find that your post is far too pessimistic. Would there be troubles? Yes, but solutions can be found. I feel your viewpoint is similar to the "We can't have it, so therefore it's bad." stance that Hollywood often takes toward this type of subject. When was the last time you saw a movie that took a positive stance toward life extension, genetic engineering, or even robotics? People don't like to acknowledge the fact that something glorious may come about that they might not be part of.

[Elaro]

How about a plan to sterilize, perhaps temporarily, the people who use the drug?

[frogcurry]

If people started living a lot lot longer then they'd probably be more inclined to try different careers, life styles etc. Retirement could become a temporary intermission before starting in a new area.

The idea of dynastic immortal families is nothing new; but that sort of corporate abuse would probably be limited in scope in publicly listed companies, just as it is limited today. And in the case of privately owned businesses, why let your self serving great great grand nephew wreck a part of your company which you built?

Tax rates would probably need to be pretty brutal for the rich though (or non-existent for the poorer population members), as otherwise the wealth divide could rise to a pretty extreme level after a century, simply between the newly born and the already existant. On the plus side, it'd eliminate the problem of Paris Hilton type rich heiresses somewhat, since they'd not be in such a good position to recieve large amounts of wealth if (grand)daddy is not going anywhere anytime soon.

[Lord Relvenous]

A drug like this could speed scientific growth considerably. The book the Sigma Protocol by Robert Ludlum touches on an idea of the influencial gaining extended living. Think about it. In the average engineering, medical, or research field, experts really only gain that status after decades of hard work and learning, and soon experience the slowing of movement and thought brought on by age. Now if these experts had hundreds of years to advance science after they have become experts, and we are not constantly having to train new inexperienced members to replace the old, experienced ones, progress could be phenomenal1

[Lord of the Abyss]

A drug like this could speed scientific growth considerably. The book the Sigma Protocol by Robert Ludlum touches on an idea of the influencial gaining extended living. Think about it. In the average engineering, medical, or research field, experts really only gain that status after decades of hard work and learning, and soon experience the slowing of movement and thought brought on by age. Now if these experts had hundreds of years to advance science after they have become experts, and we are not constantly having to train new inexperienced members to replace the old, experienced ones, progress could be phenomenal1

"Funeral by funeral, science advances." Or the old stick in the muds will retard scientific progress by ignoring anything that doesn't fit their prejudices.

Thing is, we don't know how much of the mental inflexibility of age is due to tne accumulation of data/experience, and how much due to the physical aging of the brain. Without knowing that we can't really say whether or not long life would speed or slow progress.

[Feil]

"Funeral by funeral, science advances." Or the old stick in the muds will retard scientific progress by ignoring anything that doesn't fit their prejudices.

Thing is, we don't know how much of the mental inflexibility of age is due to tne accumulation of data/experience, and how much due to the physical aging of the brain. Without knowing that we can't really say whether or not long life would speed or slow progress.

Perhaps in the theoretical sciences that might be the case, but generally it seems that industry and invention, not the Reaper, pushes science forwards. And industry tends to hunt for new people, because they're cheaper. Christ, imagine someone expecting yearly pay raises for a century....