Drakas vs Freeholders on an equal field

[Zor]

You have an Earthlike Planet with terran wildlife. On which are two human civilizations. Both of these are for the most part comprable technologically to that of OTL 1940s Earth with one exception. Fissile materials are non existant on this planet.

One of which is Freehold of Grainne from the Michael Z. Williamson novels. They have contraceptives of comprable effectiveness.

The other are Drakas from Stirlings Domination stuff.

Both have a population of 10,000,000 and are on either side of a fertile tropical australia sized continent.

The Handwavium from both of these is now no longer functional. Both have respectable and roughly equal amounts of natural resources.

Who wins?

Zor

[Ahriman238]

Yeah, that'll be option 4. Both factions exist and survive solely through authorial fiat.

[NecronLord]

So I've deleted option 5 of your poll, it's literally a spam option.

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

One of which is Freehold of Grainne from the Michael Z. Williamson novels. They have contraceptives of comprable effectiveness.

They have contraceptives of comprable effectiveness.

Okay then.

[Eulogy]

From what little knowledge I have, the Draka are morons, but the Freeholders are even bigger morons. The Draka destroy the Freeholders, and then their society falls apart.

[Raxmei]

In a scenario with balanced populations the Draka have a handicap because the majority of theirs are underproductive illiterate serfs. In Marching Through Georgia, which took place in the time period in question, one of the characters complains that even in the greatest war they've ever seen they can't use some tractors to free up for the army all the people they have stuck doing farm labor by hand. They were by far the most populous nation of their timeline's WWII since their serf population was over 200 million even before the conquests of their WWI and they still had manpower problems. The problem just gets worse as time goes on because they have trouble getting their work force up to the standard needed for industry. Of that 10,000,000 population only about 1,000,000 would be considered educable and they'll all be wasting substantial amounts of time in military training. If the Freehold can manage to build even a remotely functional war economy that can utilize their full population they'll have an advantage.

[Sidewinder]

In a scenario with balanced populations the Draka have a handicap because the majority of theirs are underproductive illiterate serfs. In Marching Through Georgia, which took place in the time period in question, one of the characters complains that even in the greatest war they've ever seen they can't use some tractors to free up for the army all the people they have stuck doing farm labor by hand. They were by far the most populous nation of their timeline's WWII since their serf population was over 200 million even before the conquests of their WWI and they still had manpower problems. The problem just gets worse as time goes on because they have trouble getting their work force up to the standard needed for industry. Of that 10,000,000 population only about 1,000,000 would be considered educable and they'll all be wasting substantial amounts of time in military training. If the Freehold can manage to build even a remotely functional war economy that can utilize their full population they'll have an advantage.

And these guys conquered the world?! S & M Stirling must be sci-fi's closest counterpart to a Trekkie trolling a SW vs ST forum- one so stupid, he can barely tie his shoelaces without strangling himself.

[NecronLord]

Everyone has terribly bad luck, and they have amazing.

In fairness, it's presented in a context of a multiple-timeline setting, where we're supposed to be following a particularly bad timeline.

In 99.999% of them, the Draka probably get ground under the foot of freedom.

[Norseman]

As one of the Drakafic authors I'd like to say two things:

1. The Drakan society in itself is actually quite believable, and there's no reason to suspect that it wouldn't be fairly stable over time. The main problem with it is that it wouldn't be able to compete against other more rational societies.

2. The Draka are ready for war and have a proper, well funded military. Simply put Freehold is not capable of resisting anyone who isn't a pants-on-head moron.

So yeah, the Draka would crush Freehold and then stagnate because there'd be no reason to push for further scientific progress.

[Simon_Jester]

And these guys conquered the world?! S & M Stirling must be sci-fi's closest counterpart to a Trekkie trolling a SW vs ST forum- one so stupid, he can barely tie his shoelaces without strangling himself.

In all fairness, he's a better writer than that in at least some of his other work. What costs him in quality with the Draka is the essential premise of the story: "evil triumphant," the idea of the antithesis of Western civilization as we know it, establishing itself as a world hegemon over the ruins of that civilization.

The problem then being that the pure antithesis of Western civilization, something that was defined and created to be its opposite in every way, would have to do all sorts of things that just don't work. Or work, but not well enough to compete with the alternatives.

[Norseman]

The problem then being that the pure antithesis of Western civilization, something that was defined and created to be its opposite in every way, would have to do all sorts of things that just don't work. Or work, but not well enough to compete with the alternatives.

That indeed is the biggest problem with the Draka, their society would work just fine internally, but wouldn't really be able to compete against other systems. For an example of this look at North Korea, that state is often cartoonishly evil, and yet all predictions of its impending collapse have proven to be false. Likewise the Draka would be quite stable as long as they weren't seriously challenged from the outside.

The problem is that Freehold as it is written should be utterly dysfunctional and unable to raise a proper army, they've got no conscription and an obsession with a small super-elite army, and armed and vigilant citizens. Its just that this combination doesn't do you much good when you're up against a real military. However though Freehold is not a danger right now it could become one if left alone, given this and that it is currently low hanging fruit the rational Drakan response will be to attack and invade the moment it is feasible.

If we assume World War Two levels of technology (just to avoid the nuclear issue, but it really doesn't matter much) then the Draka can raise 200 000 citizens, some 300 000 janissaries, and around 1 000 000 auxilliaries (unarmed behind the lines staff). A mobilization on this scale will of course devastate their economy, but they'd be willing to pay that price in order to strike first and strike hard. It is very doubtful that there would be significant unrest at home, for instance there were no slave uprisings in the Confederated States during the Civil War. So for some time they'll be able to devote their full might towards conquering Freehold.

What exactly does Freehold have to hope to match this? Their government consumes under 10% of their GNP (probably far less), their military is exclusively voluntary, and they are ideologically incapable of making proper large scale mobilization plans. They simply won't have the necessary *time* to build a proper military to stop the Drakan attack.

In short it's a cakewalk for the Draka, smashing aside the Freehold military and then unleashing their janissaries on the Freehold civillian population. Sure Freehold might put up a resistance, but massive brutality, deportations, and starvation will break the resistance before too long.

[NecronLord]

for instance there were no slave uprisings in the Confederated States during the Civil War.

This is an entirely fucktarded comparison to use.

The reason there were no well known slave rebellions in the Confederacy is not least because the Confederacy was broken and destroyed, and after the Emancipation Proclamation, US forces were under orders to protect the freedom of all the former-slaves in the Confederacy. Confederate officials regarded escaped black soldiers in the union army as rebel slaves.

A strong case can be made that black involvement in the Civil War constituted a truly vast slave rebellion. It would be entirely irrational of fugitives to follow the normal pattern of a slave rebellion when attempting to link up with Union Forces (post EP) would allow them to be armed by the industrial might of the north and join the union army, letting them fight their oppressors with the cannon on their side.

Of course, the entire thread is a little stupid, given that the Freeholders exist in a setting where schools can build nuclear weapons and where the technology is set up to create a libertarian utopia; a 1940s equivalent of the Freeholders would doubtless assume a more... reasonable form. After all, the 1940 United States also spent less than 10% of its GDP on government expenditure, and the Draka would have no hope of victory against them in a sane universe. We know what 1940s Draka look like, it's not too clever, but we assume that 1940s Freehold would do everything the same way even without their supertech that enables their crazy? If we applied the same logic of expecting them to behave the same with more primitive technology, to the Draka, we'd have the Final Society Draka getting massacred because they now trust their slaves implicitly, but they're not genetically engineered homo servus.

In short, a 1940s Freehold will look like... a generic 1940s state with a strong emphasis on liberty and personal freedom. It will be fighting against 40s Draka without their wanktastic Hond tanks and other such handwavium that no 40s state could really build. It would of course, tear the Draka a new one.

[Norseman]

for instance there were no slave uprisings in the Confederated States during the Civil War.

This is an entirely fucktarded comparison to use.

The reason there were no well known slave rebellions in the Confederacy is not least because the Confederacy was broken and destroyed, and after the Emancipation Proclamation, US forces were under orders to protect the freedom of all the former-slaves in the Confederacy. Confederate officials regarded escaped black soldiers in the union army as rebel slaves.

A strong case can be made that black involvement in the Civil War constituted a truly vast slave rebellion. It would be entirely irrational of fugitives to follow the normal pattern of a slave rebellion when attempting to link up with Union Forces (post EP) would allow them to be armed by the industrial might of the north and join the union army, letting them fight their oppressors with the cannon on their side.

Thank you for making my point for me. The slaves never rebelled on site, but would be willing to flee towards Union lines if they believed they'd be able to get there. Likewise the Drakan serfs would not rebell, but if they thought they could make it they would no doubt be willing to flee towards advancing armies dedicated to liberating them. Your own sources, indeed your very own words back this 100%.

Of course, the entire thread is a little stupid, given that the Freeholders exist in a setting where schools can build nuclear weapons and where the technology is set up to create a libertarian utopia; a 1940s equivalent of the Freeholders would doubtless assume a more... reasonable form. After all, the 1940 United States also spent less than 10% of its GDP on government expenditure, and the Draka would have no hope of victory against them in a sane universe. We know what 1940s Draka look like, it's not too clever, but we assume that 1940s Freehold would do everything the same way even without their supertech that enables their crazy? If we applied the same logic of expecting them to behave the same with more primitive technology, to the Draka, we'd have the Final Society Draka getting massacred because they now trust their slaves implicitly, but they're not genetically engineered homo servus.

The Draka wouldn't stand a chance against the USA in a sane universe because the Drakan economic system is utterly inferior on so many levels. However if the US of 1940 was to be a state with 10 million people and then get plumped right next to the Draka the outcome would be more in doubt, mainly because the Draka might win before the US would be able to mobilize. See the reason the US could afford such a small army is that they had no enemies on the same continent as themselves, which is also why they were so keen on their navy and their coastal defences.

In short, a 1940s Freehold will look like... a generic 1940s state with a strong emphasis on liberty and personal freedom. It will be fighting against 40s Draka without their wanktastic Hond tanks and other such handwavium that no 40s state could really build. It would of course, tear the Draka a new one.

Uhm no, Freehold is Libertarian Wank. There is nothing in the Freehold system of government which requires high levels of technology. In fact you could argue that Freehold would be *more* workable in a 1940s kind of setting.

However whether the Draka have 1940s or Freehold level tech or anything in between is not really relevant, the outcome will always be the same: Freehold loses *hard*. It is quite inevitable that when a heavily militarized state is slapped down next to a libertarian state that the militarized, organised state will have a huge advantage when it comes to war. If on the other hand the Draka were slapped down next to something like ... the French, the Germans, the Russians, etc, then the outcome would of course be reversed.

Don't allow your hatred of the Draka to blind yourself to the fact that a real military will always crush rabble, and Freehold is rabble.

[NecronLord]

Thank you for making my point for me. The slaves never rebelled on site, but would be willing to flee towards Union lines if they believed they'd be able to get there. Likewise the Drakan serfs would not rebell, but if they thought they could make it they would no doubt be willing to flee towards advancing armies dedicated to liberating them. Your own sources, indeed your very own words back this 100%.

Except of course, you're saying that the enemy will not advance into Draka territory. Therefore the situation is not the same, and consequently the results will differ.

The Draka wouldn't stand a chance against the USA in a sane universe because the Drakan economic system is utterly inferior on so many levels. However if the US of 1940 was to be a state with 10 million people and then get plumped right next to the Draka the outcome would be more in doubt, mainly because the Draka might win before the US would be able to mobilize. See the reason the US could afford such a small army is that they had no enemies on the same continent as themselves, which is also why they were so keen on their navy and their coastal defences.

Certainly they might do better against an equal size US directly next against them, than one far away with a huge navy, but your notion still assumes that the US entirely misses the Draka mobilizing, or otherwise fails to react. Which is also what you're presuming; that the other side will miss the point entirely. Plans that require that rarely work out. This is the same flaw as the Draka books have. The mere existence of the Draka nearby is reason for any sane state that doesn't want to be enslaved to go onto a total war footing, and strike first, just as you point out the Draka would with Freehold.

Uhm no, Freehold is Libertarian Wank. There is nothing in the Freehold system of government which requires high levels of technology. In fact you could argue that Freehold would be *more* workable in a 1940s kind of setting.

However whether the Draka have 1940s or Freehold level tech or anything in between is not really relevant, the outcome will always be the same: Freehold loses *hard*. It is quite inevitable that when a heavily militarized state is slapped down next to a libertarian state that the militarized, organised state will have a huge advantage when it comes to war. If on the other hand the Draka were slapped down next to something like ... the French, the Germans, the Russians, etc, then the outcome would of course be reversed.

Don't allow your hatred of the Draka to blind yourself to the fact that a real military will always crush rabble, and Freehold is rabble.

Freehold is a state set on an asteroid and has no territorial ambitions. It has limited reason to develop an army worth two shits compared to a terrestrial state, especially one plunked down next to the Draka. Your assumption that it will still insist on having a tiny military is laughable.

[Norseman]

Except of course, you're saying that the enemy will not advance into Draka territory. Therefore the situation is not the same, and consequently the results will differ.

If by that you mean that there won't be a massive influx of serfs fleeing to the enemy, then yes.

Certainly they might do better against an equal size US directly next against them, than one far away with a huge navy, but your notion still assumes that the US entirely misses the Draka mobilizing. Which is also what you're presuming; that the other side will miss the point entirely. Plans that require that rarely work out.

No. In fact I assume that the US realises almost immediately that the Draka are hostile and mobilizing for war, and that they immediately and desperately scramble to do whatever they can to match them. Thing is... it doesn't matter. The Draka will as most militarist states have plans drawn up for mobilizing, they will have supplies in stock, their economy is already pretty much run on a wartime basis. They are ready for a full on war *right now*, much in the same way as Nazi Germany was ready for a full on war in 1939, or the Soviet Union was ready for one during the Cold War. Meanwhile the 1930s US mobilization plans and preparations are all based around the idea that they will have time to mobilize and that no enemy can really effectively threaten the US homeland.

Now see... in the real world you don't plan to suddenly find yourself dumped on a different planet, on the same continent as a bunch of psychotic slavers you've never heard of before. So it makes sense that the US plans and the US military would be rather ill-equipped for suddenly having a large hostile force next door.

Freehold is a state set on an asteroid and has no territorial ambitions. It has limited reason to develop an army worth two shits compared to a terrestrial state, especially one plunked down next to the Draka. Your assumption that it will still insist on having a tiny military is laughable.

But you see... this is a come as you are war between two powers with the same social and political set up as described in the books. THere is no reason why the Freehold social and political setup couldn't work with 1940s tech, if for instance they were far away from any real enemies or what not. The OP specifies these things and that we are using 1940s tech. So on the one hand you have a hypermilitarized state devoted to full scale war, on the other hand you have a libertarian state with a utterly minarchistic government devoted to the ideas of Armed Citizens and a Small But Elite army.

Even if the sight of the Draka knocks some sense into the Freeholders they have a big problem in that the Draka will immediately start mobilizing and move off to conquer Freehold. Freehold meanwhile can do what? They can ready their armies sure, they can ask their citizens to prepare for invasion, but if they want to mobilize for war they'd need to introduce conscription and government control of industry. This wouldn't be easy, at the very least it would take six months to a year to do so (and that is probably optimistic), but within that period of time the Draka would conquer them.

However dysfunctional the Draka are (and they are very dysfunctional) Freehold is far, far worse.

[NecronLord]

Now see... in the real world you don't plan to suddenly find yourself dumped on a different planet, on the same continent as a bunch of psychotic slavers you've never heard of before. So it makes sense that the US plans and the US military would be rather ill-equipped for suddenly having a large hostile force next door.

Here's were we differ, clearly. You're presuming that Q did it, I'm operating on the assumption that these are states that have organically grown up next to each other over an appropriate timescale, and have been aware of each other for decades.

Even if the sight of the Draka

Which to my mind, "on which are two human civilizations" means they've been seeing way back into history, and have doubtless been preparing for conflict with as an inevitability.

[NecronLord]

I mean sure, if Q just dumps them down, the Draka would probably win (though the occupation/genocide would probably result in mass casualties) but that is also true of The Culture if you plunked its citizens down as a 1940s-Tech society and expected them to then fight a war with a huge horde of slavers. That doesn't mean the 1940s tech Draka would have a hope in hell against a 1940s tech society with the same values and society (say, a legitimately non-oppressive USSR).

[Norseman]

If Freehold creates a proper army, with all the government and taxation that this entails, then it is no longer Freehold but something else. Simply put a Libertarian state cannot resist a proper military in the 1940s, it's just not doable, it has to create the governmental infrastructure to have a proper full scale military and conscription.

[Sidewinder]

That indeed is the biggest problem with the Draka, their society would work just fine internally, but wouldn't really be able to compete against other systems. For an example of this look at North Korea, that state is often cartoonishly evil, and yet all predictions of its impending collapse have proven to be false.

To be fair, one major reason why North Korea has survived for so long, is because China- which has a far stronger, and capitalistic economy- refuses to let its government fall. I doubt the Draka will have so generous a "sugar daddy" in any realistic universe.

Likewise the Draka would be quite stable as long as they weren't seriously challenged from the outside.

With the stagnant economy that'll inevitably result from being a slave state? Without a "sugar daddy" like the one mentioned above, I suspect it'll collapse within decades.

[Norseman]

That indeed is the biggest problem with the Draka, their society would work just fine internally, but wouldn't really be able to compete against other systems. For an example of this look at North Korea, that state is often cartoonishly evil, and yet all predictions of its impending collapse have proven to be false.

To be fair, one major reason why North Korea has survived for so long, is because China- which has a far stronger, and capitalistic economy- refuses to let its government fall. I doubt the Draka will have so generous a "sugar daddy" in any realistic universe.

Without a serious challenge from outside the North Koreans wouldn't need the Chinese, because they wouldn't need their enormous military and would be free to devote resources to other stuff. Sure it'd be a dirt poor oppressive dictatorship, but so what? That only matters if there's an outside challenge to the regime, like South Korea or the USA.

Likewise the Draka would be quite stable as long as they weren't seriously challenged from the outside.

With the stagnant economy that'll inevitably result from being a slave state? Without a "sugar daddy" like the one mentioned above, I suspect it'll collapse within decades.

Without a serious outside challenge? Of course they could last! The problem with the Draka is not that the regime is stable internally, that actually makes a bit of sense. The problem is how they came about and that they're capable of competing with the outside world, neither of which makes any sense whatsoever. If there's no outside challenge it doesn't really matter how inefficient the regime is on an absolute scale, so long as they're able to sustain the security apparatus.

In fact let me quote Orwell:

But the problems of perpetuating a hierarchical society go deeper than this. There are only four ways in which a ruling group can fall from power.

1. Either it is conquered from without, or

2. it governs so inefficiently that the masses are stirred to revolt, or

3. it allows a strong and discontented Middle group to come into being, or

4. it loses its own self-confidence and willingness to govern.

These causes do not operate singly, and as a rule all four of them are present in some degree. A ruling class which could guard against all of them would remain in power permanently. Ultimately the determining factor is the mental attitude of the ruling class itself.

The Draka and North Korea are both quite stable internally so long as there are no outside powers willing and able to seriously challenge them. It is wishful thinking of the worst sort to believe that oppressive, even horrible regimes will simply crumble under the weight of their own evil. On the other hand quite a few regimes would crumble very quickly if someone kicked in the door.

[Simon_Jester]

I blame Zor about this one- he didn't make it clear whether the societies are getting plunked down by Act of God, whether they grew up organically, whether the Freeholders somehow get mutated into a 1940s civilization with preexisting plans and knowledge of how to use 1940s technology efficiently, or whatever.