Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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cadbrowser wrote:Only a few grams of nuclear fuel a week? As big as these things are?
Well, they're 3m tall and weigh 750-1000kg. Their energy consumption is 10-400kW thermal.
With a kg of Uranium providing 1.3TJ, we need 0.0047 to 0.187kg of fuel per week, slightly higher in practice because the fuel produced by the breeder cycle is less energy-dense than uranium. I detailed the nuclear fuel consumption rates for various communities in an earlier post.
Consider establishing an upper limit for how many "thousands of years" has passed since humans have left the earth. How rare is this commodity? How many Iron Giants are there in the world? What is their rate of procreation/infant (?) mortality rates...etc.
I'll discuss my background more here, even if I repeat information posted earlier.
In 200 years, humanity will not find any more natural deposits of uranium. As the price per kg rises above 200USD/kg, they will be forced to recycle spent fuel using breeder reactors, but even if that holds out for 1000 years, they will need fresh fuel. The space exploration program is in full swing too, so nuclear fuel will leave in spacecraft drives and never return. The solution is a vast project of uranium extraction from seawater. As time passes, the process is automated. Scoops filter water and mud from the seafloor and process it into nuclear fuel. It is initially deposited in coastline installations with their own nuclear power supply.
Fusion never works out on Earth. By the time it is developped, the installations for gathering He3 have to tread on the uranium exctractors, so people just stay with fission.
10000 years pass and Earth has become unrecognizable. It is green, yes, and covered by plant and animal life; but most of it is engineered to survive the disasters humans have wrought over the years. By now, the population living in other solar systems exceeds that living in ours. Multiple restoration efforts fail, but people don't care, they have new homes now and an alien war to worry about.
20000 years later, the Sun's light is visibly dimmed by the solar power installations that power relativistic kinetic weapon launches. During the war, an alien race manages to divert part of a Gamma Ray burst's energy and sterilizes the solar system with it in a display of power.
Half of the Earth's oceans boil, the ozone layer is destroyed and the tons upon tons of uranium stockpiles meant to fuel the extraterrestrial colonization effort are flash-vaporized into the air.

When conditions settle down again, most of the Earth's water is locked up in huge polar caps around the poles, and extremely strong convection cells circle from the equator to the polar caps. They do a good job of grinding away the top soil and leaving a sandy belt around the planet. Between this and the polar caps is a dry, cold wasteland with flat, hard rock, rubbed down mountains, and very little water.

Onto the Iron Giants.

They are the last step of many unsuccessful efforts to return Earth to its former greenery. Capsules containing nanomachines are sent from the colonies on other solar systems, across interstellar space, to seed the earth with artificial bodies the returning humans can inhabit. They run on nuclear power, injesting practically any radioactive fuel and extracting whatever they can from it.
70000 years later, the humans do not return. The machines slowly overcome their inital programming, and the incessant degradation by the surrounding radioactivity allows them to mutate and gain consciousness. Civilization starts from the year +100000.

Not all of the nuclear fuel depots were destroyed during the gamma ray burst. Many of those placed underwater of underground survived. Over the millenia, they broke down, stopped functioning and were covered by wind-driven sedimentation. Of course, without ventilation or any sort of control, the containers broke down too, so some melted down and other heated up enough to leave a visible trace on the surface.

Natural hotspots caused by uranium concentrations on earth already. The giants had to detect these thermal signatures and began digging for them. What they extracted was an odd mix. On one side, we have high-quality refined fuel. In the midst, we have various products of radioactive decay of various usefullness, from as-good-as-uranium to poison-for-our-reactors.

The giants had to learn to separated them, and this is where my idea for centrifuges came up. Seems I was wrong. Only simple milling and sedimentation/filtering is needed to separate the lightest actinidesfrom the rest.
How long before they run out of fuel? In respects to this finit supply...where are you introducing the timeline? This is important, because if this is an established "race" and your introduction to them is "well estimates put fuel reserves expiring in a million years"...then it won't be as facinating. However, if there is less than a decade of fuel left...then hell yes you are going to have wars.
Oh it'll be millenia before they run out of fuel, but the amount they extract at any one time is very limited. There is competition for this rare resource.
The giants' population is mostly limited by how much iron and other metals they can put into the birthing pools. The active nanites, once they detect enough of each metal that composes a giant, will produce a youngster. The adults don't know how much exactly is needed, or what exactly the difference between titanium and aluminium is (beyond weight, hardness and other 18th century analytical data), so they just pour in what they mine until there is enough. I can't really say what birth/death rates are, but I can say that there are few births, and few deaths, and the average life span is 100 years.

Small communities are in the hundreds, large one in the thousands, and the largest few in the ten thousands. I'm guessing the world population is about 50 million, scattered around the equator and along the ancient coastlines. They would naturally group in where current major cities are, because of the likelihood of finding a nuclear fuel deposit.

5 million on average needs 465 tons a week, or 16.9 thousand tons a year. Cosidering that we actually consume 68 thousand tons a year, and that the average nuclear power station holds 75 tons of pure nuclear fuel, this is entirely reasonable.

Of course, if all the hidden fuel deposits and buried fuel reactors in a region are used up, all the inhabitants will all die out unless they manage to co-ordinate the invasion of another region before their fuel reserves are used up. This is doubly dangerous because fighting and building war machines and whatnot will increase their fuel consumption by up to 40 times.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Simon_Jester wrote:The point is that it's actively dangerous to stay anywhere near the community that just exiled you, so first you trek several thousand miles, then you find a place to settle by the usual means.
Without any war equipment, you are no danger to the original community. Plus, the exile is not a hateful, angry affair. It has a lot of ill sentiment between both parties, but I said before that exile is disguised as a punishment of a long-term expedition. There is a high risk of failure after all, which would mean the community would have decided to collectively kill a few of their own, and we know by now that killing another giant when the total population is 5 million is a big no-no.

Another factor is the average distance between nuclear fuel depots. They will be grouped in one region, and the next one is pretty far away. So, the exiles have to decide whether they stay relatively nearby with a good chance of finding a fuel depot underground near the one they came from, or running for months to find the next cluster. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages, such as the risk of being attacked by the original community in a few years, or the opportunity of finding two or even three depots in one mineable location.
Actually, medieval communities weren't quite that isolationist. Among other things, disasters and wars tended to kill off the people, which left a lot of unworked land in need of new people, which in turn gave refugees a place to settle.
Not sure what the counterpart would be here. Do these guys ever get sick? I'm picturing some sort of exploding thermonuclear flu.
[/quote]

The counterpart here is a whole region and its multiple colonies running dry. They will be forced to group up and invade another region, but that isn't exactly refugee-status...

As for getting sick, all I can think of is a mutated strain of nanite that gets added to the birthing pool upon the sick individual's death, and is spread the following offspring in a diluted form. The solution is to purge the pool at great cost to the community.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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So, no way to accidentally poison a reactor?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_poison

That surprises me. As Skimmer said, the chemical balance and geometry of a nuclear reactor is a very precise, finicky thing. Malnutrition should be a real problem here.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Simon_Jester wrote:So, no way to accidentally poison a reactor?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_poison

That surprises me. As Skimmer said, the chemical balance and geometry of a nuclear reactor is a very precise, finicky thing. Malnutrition should be a real problem here.
They can eat all the neutron poisons they want, it won't get processed and injected into the reactor.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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I think you're making them a bit too immune to that problem. Giving them at least some susceptibility, so that they sometimes 'get sick,' is likely to add flexibility to your stories.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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In 200 years, humanity will not find any more natural deposits of uranium. As the price per kg rises above 200USD/kg, they will be forced to recycle spent fuel using breeder reactors, but even if that holds out for 1000 years, they will need fresh fuel.
Hard to imagine that in 200 years FUSION isn't a viable alternative. :(

Thanks for going into more detail though. I can better grasp some of the other concepts you've outlined.
So, the exiles have to decide whether they stay relatively nearby with a good chance of finding a fuel depot underground near the one they came from, or running for months to find the next cluster.
How? Does the community exiling them give them "extra" fuel before sending them out?
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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cadbrowser wrote:Hard to imagine that in 200 years FUSION isn't a viable alternative. :(

Thanks for going into more detail though. I can better grasp some of the other concepts you've outlined.
Not a problem. You see, I love worldbuilding, and discussing it with other people is awesome.

The way I see fusion developing is that it suffers the same predicament as electric cars: a viable alternative to fossil fuelled cars exists, with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, but there is no impulse to convert the whole transportation system to electric, not with a massive overhead to pay. Currently, rising fuel prices are making the balance shift in favor of electric transportation... but imagine a situation where the uranium isn't going to run out for a good thousand years? How would you argue converting the stations to fusion power, with all the extra costs?
How? Does the community exiling them give them "extra" fuel before sending them out?
Natural consequence of how we would place the seawater uranium extractors: Along coastlines first, then deeper and deeper in national waters. The actual fuel extracted has to be stored either somewhere easy-to-maintain inland, or right next to the point of extraction to shorten the supply chain.

When all goes to hell and the surface depots are vaporized, giving us pretty white snow that is toxic to everything but the cockroaches, we'll have the intact depots underwater or underground.
Now imagine you're an iron giant thousands of year trying to unearth these uranium stockpiles. They would be arranged the same way that they were originally placed, so we'd have a chain tracing the united states coastline, or a cluster in the French Alps, or regularly spaced along the Atlantic seafloor...

A group of exiles would have a search tactic based on the arrangement of the depots around them. If the last three communities set up in a straight line, one after the other, then it is likely for the fourth depot to be placed along the line. This would be the case if they are sitting on an ancient coastline. If the communities set up randomly around a certain region, then they would travel in expanding circles until the hit the next one. This would be the case if they are standing on a seafloor installation with regularly spaced extractors, and so on...

As for the exact process for exiling members of a community:
We have amiable and less amiable. A cynical method is to gather your youngest, strongest and most fuel-hungry warriors and give them the task of finding the next spot for the community to mine. It is a glorious mission that will ensure the community's survival! Only you, oh so strong warriors, can face the wilderness and bandits for so many years! To return bare-handed is shameful! Don't return until you are successful...
The second method is a bit more forceful. The elders start cracking down on the population with extra laws, strict work policies and collectivization of wealth. On the plus side, the community gathers money to buy more fuel. On the downside, morale will take a blow and many will complain or break the rules, unwittingly or in protest.
Guess what? That's a good thing. All the malcontents and wrong-doers are imprisoned, then gathered and cast out with nothing but a few tools to set up a community of their own.

And that's how things go.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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krakonfour wrote:
cadbrowser wrote:Hard to imagine that in 200 years FUSION isn't a viable alternative. :(

Thanks for going into more detail though. I can better grasp some of the other concepts you've outlined.
Not a problem. You see, I love worldbuilding, and discussing it with other people is awesome.

The way I see fusion developing is that it suffers the same predicament as electric cars: a viable alternative to fossil fuelled cars exists, with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, but there is no impulse to convert the whole transportation system to electric, not with a massive overhead to pay. Currently, rising fuel prices are making the balance shift in favor of electric transportation... but imagine a situation where the uranium isn't going to run out for a good thousand years? How would you argue converting the stations to fusion power, with all the extra costs?
Lack of long-lived radioactive waste material?
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Terralthra wrote:Lack of long-lived radioactive waste material?
An effective waste fuel recycling program gives you either lower grade fuel or stuff with a short half-life.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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No such program currently exists, nor are there really any promises of a program that would do that. Spent fuel reprocessing can reduce the amount of waste and breed new fuel, but it can't reduce the waste to zero. Reprocessing spent fuel is also significantly more expensive than disposal, making the economic argument against switching to fusion much weaker.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Terralthra wrote:No such program currently exists, nor are there really any promises of a program that would do that. Spent fuel reprocessing can reduce the amount of waste and breed new fuel, but it can't reduce the waste to zero. Reprocessing spent fuel is also significantly more expensive than disposal, making the economic argument against switching to fusion much weaker.
Every argument here has already been bought up.
I didn't say the waste fuel would get reduced to zero, I said an ideal reprocessing program would only leave behind products with a short decay time we can dispose of in decades, not thousands of years.
Also, the cost argument was mentioned: Above 200USD/kg price for uranium, it become profitable to reprocess spent fuel instead of searching for natural deposits. Since we have reserves for about 80 years, plus another 30-40 years from all the nuclear warheads converted through the 'Megatons into Megawatts' program, the estimate or 200 years for the implementation of a large scale nuclear fuel recycling program doesn't seem unreasonable.

I am aware that such a program does not exist, nor are there plans for it, but the timeline here is in thousands of years.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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No system has yet been proposed, even theoretically, that actually leaves behind only products with a short decay time. Tc99 and I129 both have long half-lives, and no efficient process has been found to transmute or reprocess them.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Terralthra wrote:No system has yet been proposed, even theoretically, that actually leaves behind only products with a short decay time. Tc99 and I129 both have long half-lives, and no efficient process has been found to transmute or reprocess them.
Breeder reactors principally use Thorium 232 as fuel, since it is much more abundant than Uranium and is easier to covert into fissile fuels after the initial reaction. Tc99 and I129 are byproducts of U238 fission, and have half-lives in the millions of years. However, they aren't particularly radioactive during their period of activity, because they only produce low-penetrating weak radiation such as Alpha or Beta particles.

A Thorium 232 cycle's major byproduct is Uranium 232, which has very g(gamma) radioactive byproducts and cannot be chemically separated from the Uranium 233 fuel mixed in with the thorium. It does however have a half-life of only 69 years.

There are processes to quickly reduce the activity period of radioactive wastes, and one of them is subjecting them to neutron bombardment from an active reactor. The transmutation was successful in laboratories.
ORNL wrote:Irradiation of the long-lived technetium-99 isotope by neutrons will cause it to absorb a neutron and become technetium-100, which undergoes complete radioactive decay into stable ruthenium within minutes. Similarly, the iodine-129 isotope can be transformed by neutron absorption into stable xenon isotopes.
The problem is that no-one gives a damn about securing nuclear waste because it costs money, and for a bunch of political reasons involving the USA's nuclear waste disposal program being paid to hold other countries' waste for hundreds of years... In this setting, I don't care much for today's limitations.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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krakonfour wrote:
Terralthra wrote:No system has yet been proposed, even theoretically, that actually leaves behind only products with a short decay time. Tc99 and I129 both have long half-lives, and no efficient process has been found to transmute or reprocess them.
Breeder reactors principally use Thorium 232 as fuel, since it is much more abundant than Uranium and is easier to covert into fissile fuels after the initial reaction. Tc99 and I129 are byproducts of U238 fission, and have half-lives in the millions of years. However, they aren't particularly radioactive during their period of activity, because they only produce low-penetrating weak radiation such as Alpha or Beta particles.

A Thorium 232 cycle's major byproduct is Uranium 232, which has very g(gamma) radioactive byproducts and cannot be chemically separated from the Uranium 233 fuel mixed in with the thorium. It does however have a half-life of only 69 years.

There are processes to quickly reduce the activity period of radioactive wastes, and one of them is subjecting them to neutron bombardment from an active reactor. The transmutation was successful in laboratories.
ORNL wrote:Irradiation of the long-lived technetium-99 isotope by neutrons will cause it to absorb a neutron and become technetium-100, which undergoes complete radioactive decay into stable ruthenium within minutes. Similarly, the iodine-129 isotope can be transformed by neutron absorption into stable xenon isotopes.
Yeah, that's not neutron bombardment from an active reactor, that's neutron bombardment from a particle accelerator. Those are very different things.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Terralthra wrote:Yeah, that's not neutron bombardment from an active reactor, that's neutron bombardment from a particle accelerator. Those are very different things.
Neutrons are neutrons, and the only defining trait is their velocity.
So a neutron bombardment from a particle accelerator can be perfectly replicated by neutrons emitted from the reactor at the correct energies.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Not... necessarily. Nuclear physics is not quite that simple.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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Simon_Jester wrote:Not... necessarily. Nuclear physics is not quite that simple.
well, in this case it is 8)

Technetium might be an important part of the robot's biology - in particular as high temp alloys for holding the internal fuel.

http://theenergycollective.com/nnadir/2 ... -good-idea
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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madd0ct0r wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:Not... necessarily. Nuclear physics is not quite that simple.
well, in this case it is 8)

Technetium might be an important part of the robot's biology - in particular as high temp alloys for holding the internal fuel.

http://theenergycollective.com/nnadir/2 ... -good-idea
Thanks. Where would I be able to scavenge the material today? Would I have to look in a nuclear reactor? Nuclear waste disposal? Or is it stockpiled elsewhere?
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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nuclear waste and the irish sea (for trace amounts)
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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madd0ct0r wrote:nuclear waste and the irish sea (for trace amounts)
Interesting. I'll research the current nuclear waste stockpile locations and see if I can make them match the giant's colonies' locations.
For now, I'm concentrating on drawing them and getting a feel for the size and weight of their armor.
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Re: Plausibility check for a setting - Iron Giants

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I'm thinking of scrapping this setting. It didn't end up as I wanted, and it is much too hard to turn into a story without all the typical human elements that draw the reader.
The motivation, the of these Iron giants and the timescales they live in are so far removed from what we know that I'd end up with the 'writing the life and time of an AI computer' problem. I could force them to have human minds, but it'd feel contrived and completely inadapted to the reality they live in.

I'll post another setting soon.
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