What Hard SF Universe Could Beat the Federation?

[Starglider]

The same situation as the opening post put forward. This time around, however, the HSF civs get a FTL that's equivalent to Federation Warp drive on their ships.

Unless they also get FTL sensors they can't stop incoming warp missiles. But they can run away and they may be able to take out some fraction of the Federation in revenge, depending on their manufacturing capability. FTL sensors pretty much imply FTL comms.

If they do get FTL sensors your actual question appears to be 'are the UFP's (relatively weak) energy shields, inertial dampers and (easily jammed) transporters enough to ensure a victory over any conceivable opponent that does not have these things?' Because I can't see what else of combat utility useful the UFP has that HSF does not. The answer is of course 'no'. Big surprise.

[Beowulf]

What's your science education? Causality is an inherent rational assumption about the universe; science is philosophically itself not rigorous if effects may precede causes. Its an intrinsic premise to science; the universe quite literally makes no sense if there is no causality.

For this reason, and the highly accurate nature of relativity, it is almost certain that faster-than-light information transmission is completely impossible.

You think people haven't thought about this? Of course it won't globally throw causality out the window. There may, however, be instances where you can cause a violation of causality, and still have the universe be in perfectly self-consistent state. E.g. a Tipler Cylinder. We've figured out it's impossible to actually build one, but it's doesn't violate any constraints inherent in relativity.

[Darth Wong]

What difference would it make in terms of the outcome of the conflict? Forget how the drive works, simply assume they have something roughly equivalent to Warp.

Now you're just saying 'Federation vs completely arbitrary opponent with undefined capabilities, who wins?' What an utterly pointless question.

It would seem I overestimated your ability to think in context.

What are you, a goddamned retard? The OP defined the HSF civ only in terms of what it can't do, ie- violate the known laws of physics. Take away that constriction and this group has no real definition at all.

This is like asking whether a pre-gunpowder army could beat a gunpowder army ... if they had gunpowder.

[Nova Andromeda]

Oh great, now we have to deal with vague wanking about "super intelligence".

-Aside from your derision of the possibility is there some reason super intelligence shouldn't be considered? The OP does ask if there is any HSF civ that could stand up to the Federation. Furethermore, super intelligence is far from unlikely given a HSF civ that is advanced enough to span many systems.

If the UFP knows how dangerous the enemy is, they will kill it without messing about.

-Why would the UFP necessarily know how dangerous the HSF civ is? From outward appearances the HSF civ is utterly backwards, I've never seen any indication that the Federation worries about an enemy's computing capabilities (unlike Galactica), and massive computing capabilities and/or super intelligence isn't nearly as obvious as a Giant Mirror of Death (TM).

... but this is still strictly limited by the OP which bans reverse engineering etc.

-My interpretation of the reverse engineering and production rule was that it prevented the HSF civ from reverse engineering and producing things that violate physics. If the rule is interpreted to mean that the HSF civ can't even figure out how any Federation tech./software works (even if it doesn't violate physics) then you've gone way over board in handicapping the HSF civ. Under those conditions the I don't see how the HSF civ maintain Federation equipment at all which is inconsitent with the captured Federation equipment rule.

Any success via this route won't be within the scope of the original conflict.

-Only according to your arbitrary definition of the war's end. According to the OP the conflict isn't over until one side is neutralized.

DO NOT try to bullshit me with 'superintelligence = get out of jail free card'. I have spent the last four years working on general AI research, specifically self-enhancing systems, and working with people doing theoretical studies of the real dangers of superintelligence.

-You suffer from a failure of imagination. The number of variables and unknowns at play in this scenario isn't even in the same galaxy as your analogy. Until you can identify and account for all the significant options available to the super intelligence and reduce the unknowns to insignificance how can you possibly know we haven't missed something with any reasonable degree of certainty. This isn't like kicking a super intelligent bunny off a cliff and wondering if it can figure out a way to survive before it hits the ground. Besides, I see nothing wrong with saying I can't think of a way out for the HSF civ once I'm convinced my ideas won't work, but that's different from saying there is no way out.



Starglider's God like Federation sensors:
-I'm no Trek expert so perhaps someone who is can comment on the Federation's sensor capabilities. However, what you describe is approaching god like omnicience and doesn't account "space anaomolies" and technobabble signatures.

Oh so now it's 'lets see if we can design any vaguely plausible HSF civ that would stand a chance against the UFP'.

-That's basically what the OP asked for. It didn't ask whether your average HSF civ (in terms of what's normally written) stands a chance. It also makes sense for a HSF civ to have "major rainy day assets spread throughout space already as a contingency against major stellar events." This sort of idea is already bouncing around our planet.


-Lastly, I don't see a good counter yet to diplomatic options that involve bringing other Trek powers in the war on the HSF civ side. While this may seem like a copout it's a legitimate strategy that's been used throughout history.

[kinnison]

Let's take a step back here. Everyone is thinking of the same kind of hard SF advanced civilisation; somewhere between type I and type II, probably closer to the latter, with a population of quadrillions and computing capacity impossible for our civilisation, or anyone like it, to imagine. Possibly with some seriously advanced AI.

The HSF civilisation comes into contact with the Federation, and all of a sudden they know for sure that FTL travel and communication (which includes sensors) is possible. It has often been said that the biggest step is to know something is possible. Now they do - and they have billions of scientists, with the aid of transapient AI, to find out how.

One further point. The bigger the population, the further out along the bell curve the extremes get. In other words, such a civilisation would have maybe a thousand Einsteins. And maybe ten or twenty Newtons. And they most likely think faster than the originals - a lot faster.

The outcome here probably depends on how aggressive the Federation is. The answer is; not very - or at least that's the way they have always been depicted. And a transapient civilisation probably won't provoke it.

And once the type II civilisation has warpdrive, the Federation has the chance of a cockroach under the wheels of an 18-wheeler.

[Teleros]

And once the type II civilisation has warpdrive, the Federation has the chance of a cockroach under the wheels of an 18-wheeler.

Problem being the HSF civilisation has to stick to the laws of physics - which means no warp drive .

[Ghost Rider]

And once the type II civilisation has warpdrive, the Federation has the chance of a cockroach under the wheels of an 18-wheeler.

Problem being the HSF civilisation has to stick to the laws of physics - which means no warp drive .

At this rate, I want one of them to say they'll invent some new ones upon discovering Trek Tech.

Really, HSF can hurt the Federation when they get their hands on them. Before hand? The Federation is using jets versus sail boats.

[Gullible Jones]

And once the type II civilisation has warpdrive, the Federation has the chance of a cockroach under the wheels of an 18-wheeler.

Problem being the HSF civilisation has to stick to the laws of physics - which means no warp drive .

At this rate, I want one of them to say they'll invent some new ones upon discovering Trek Tech.

Really, HSF can hurt the Federation when they get their hands on them. Before hand? The Federation is using jets versus sail boats.

The problem is that a warp drive violates their laws of physics. There's no way in hell that they could reverse engineer something like that fast enough to make a difference.

(I think you guys have been over this with ST vs SW...)

[Darth Wong]

It has often been said that the biggest step is to know something is possible.

Who the fuck said this, and did this person ever try to actually design anything more complicated than a mousetrap in his life?

Now they do - and they have billions of scientists, with the aid of transapient AI, to find out how.

So a problem which has stymied them for the entire lifespan of their civilization will suddenly be solved overnight once they know it's possible?

One further point. The bigger the population, the further out along the bell curve the extremes get. In other words, such a civilisation would have maybe a thousand Einsteins. And maybe ten or twenty Newtons. And they most likely think faster than the originals - a lot faster.

Yay, a race of super-geniuses who never solved a particular problem despite all of this supposed superior brainpower, yet will solve it overnight once they are inspired to do so!

[Ghost Rider]

Problem being the HSF civilisation has to stick to the laws of physics - which means no warp drive .

At this rate, I want one of them to say they'll invent some new ones upon discovering Trek Tech.

Really, HSF can hurt the Federation when they get their hands on them. Before hand? The Federation is using jets versus sail boats.

The problem is that a warp drive violates their laws of physics. There's no way in hell that they could reverse engineer something like that fast enough to make a difference.

(I think you guys have been over this with ST vs SW...)

I'll put it this nicely since you're new.

What do you think I was refering to when I said

"They'll invent new ones..."

Perhaps the statement was in reference the laws of physics? Just maybe?

Really, no shit.

[Gullible Jones]

Blargh, looks like I misread your post... Sorry.

/goes off to recalibrate the sarcasm detector, or whatever they do in ST

[Junghalli]

The OP defined the HSF civ only in terms of what it can't do, ie- violate the known laws of physics. Take away that constriction and this group has no real definition at all.

I think he was thinking of something along the lines of "can't violate the laws of known physics with one exception: they have an FTL drive equivalent to Trek warp drive in performance."

[NecronLord]

To whoever it was saying they'll win via viruses; You want to explain how they'll magically compromise Star Trek ships? While their computing security is terrible, all the civilisations we've seen mess with it in the past have at least had related computing technologies. The Iconians sent them code through some funky beam of light. But how are the HSF guys going to send such code to a federation ship, and how are the UFP going to know what to do with it (assuming they're all dumb enough to immediately excecute it...) in any case?

Further, to make subversion in such a method even remotely feisable, they'd need to be able to take over the ship in the seconds it would take a compromised ship to jump a few light hours away for repairs. And given the sheer whackyness of Star Trek computers (somehow operating simultaneously in binary and trinary forms, I doubt they're going to pull it off first, second or third time, and even the UFP learn if they get stung a few times.

Even the Iconians, a culture whose technologies made the Federation look practically 'hard' themselves, couldn't, with a dedicated probe, use info-warfare to destroy ships in a combat-useful timeframe.

[Ryan Thunder]

What are you, a goddamned retard?

*sigh*

The OP defined the HSF civ only in terms of what it can't do, ie- violate the known laws of physics. Take away that constriction and this group has no real definition at all.

You're not doing much better than Starglider was...

We're taking the civilizations that meet the prerequisites set out by the OP, and then saying that they magically have a FTL drive that is equivalent to warp, and the infrastructure to maintain it. Never mind what implications this would have had for their civilization in the past; assume it is the result of a discovery so recent as to defy reason. Suspend disbelief for the rapidity of the research and development and assume it is not representative of their nominal R&D capacity.

Since you might still not get it, I'll try a mathematical analogy. The opening post defined a HSF as f(x). I'm asking you to evaluate g(f(x)), where g(x) arbitrarily gives a civilization x a warp-equivalent FTL drive and infrastructure to maintain it.

This is like asking whether a pre-gunpowder army could beat a gunpowder army ... if they had gunpowder.

In a hand-waving manner, I guess. I think a better analogy would be giving an army that uses horse cavalry jets, and the infrastructure to use them, myself.

[Ghost Rider]

The OP defined the HSF civ only in terms of what it can't do, ie- violate the known laws of physics. Take away that constriction and this group has no real definition at all.

You're not doing much better than Starglider was...

We're taking the civilizations that meet the prerequisites set out by the OP, and then saying that they magically have a FTL drive that is equivalent to warp, and the infrastructure to maintain it. Never mind what implications this would have had for their civilization in the past; assume it is the result of a discovery so recent as to defy reason. Suspend disbelief for the rapidity of the research and development and assume it is not representative of their nominal R&D capacity.

Since you might still not get it, I'll try a mathematical analogy. The opening post defined a HSF as f(x). I'm asking you to evaluate g(f(x)), where g(x) arbitrarily gives a civilization x a warp-equivalent FTL drive and infrastructure to maintain it.

So you're conceding because you are not only changing the parameteres completely but adding an object that would do more then just be transportation.

Make another fucking topic if you want to discuss it, because at the moment it is akin to telling us "What if the Germans had ICBMs...and only ICBMs in 1939?".

[Ryan Thunder]

So you're conceding because you are not only changing the parameteres completely but adding an object that would do more then just be transportation.

What? Oh. Sure, I never had any belief the HSF could stand a chance on it's own. That much is obvious. I'm just curious about what sort of difference it would make if they could attack the Federation within a reasonable time period.

Pretty much, I'm asking if Warp is what makes the difference between victory and crushing defeat in this case.

Make another fucking topic if you want to discuss it, because at the moment it is akin to telling us "What if the Germans had ICBMs...and only ICBMs in 1939?".

Yeah, well, I'm not that interested...

[kinnison]

I believe the rules of versus debates here state that if anything works for one side it works for the other.

Therefore, the laws of physics in a universe that includes Star Trek equipment such as warp drive include the physics law alterations (or extensions) necessary to make such stuff possible. It is perhaps feasible, however, for a given civilisation to have simply not discovered those extensions. Perhaps because of some racial quirk of thinking, perhaps because they haven't seen the right phenomena, who knows?

As an example, late 19th century Earth was fairly advanced in some ways - but they simply hadn't thought of nuclear power or lasers, though the clues were there. That particular door got opened, I believe, when Becquerel messed up an experiment - and was open-minded enough to investigate the cockup rather than just throw away the plate he ruined.

Once the reality of FTL travel and by extension communication (which is the only advantage of ST over any advanced HSF civilisation) is demonstrated, one can be quite sure that the HSF civilisation will be working pretty damned hard to find those alterations. And will very shortly find them, given the astronomically (literally!) enormous thinking and computing power, to say nothing of physical resources, owned by a type II.

And then the HSF civilisation turns its assemblers to creating millions of warp ships. The Feds, if they attack, get crushed like a bug. In fact, in a relatively short time the type II is a type III.

There are two rather unbelievable premises to this debate. The first is that if FTL is possible the HSF civilisation hasn't already developed it. The second is the entire set of things that the STverse hasn't done. On Federation Earth, it ought to be impossible to see the stars for the lights of the orbiting factories; the asteroids ought to be full of machinery; assorted otherwise useless giant-planet moons ought to be partially dismantled; etc. etc. etc. The only vaguely feasible reason why it hasn't happened is that some mysterious entity or group of entities (Organians, perhaps?) has prevented it.

One last thought here; am I the only one here who would like to see a TV series, or movie, set in a late-period space-engineering HSF setting?

[18-Till-I-Die]

One could speculate that the HSF Civilization has a religious hang up about FTL.

Say that ST FTL has elements similar to their transporters (it doesnt, but follow me for a second...) then there would be innumerable arguments over such things as the soul, the existence thereof, and the FTL drive's effect on it.

This is not, in the case of Warp Drives, the case but one could theorize that they have some other, similar religious belief that prevents them from developing warp.

There are people on Earth, today, who have major problems developing stem cell technologies because of far less reasonable misgivings than "But...but...it defies physics!!!" which might just be their problem. Fear and perhaps religious implications.

Indeed, if they attach some mystical bent to Subspace, say they consider it Heaven or Hell, that may also explain it.

Just a thought as to rationalize the existance of the UFP in the same universe as the Hard Sci-Fi Civilization.


Now to add my two cents to the discussion. I think it's fairly obvious that Trek wins, but in more ways than just speed. Consider for a moment that while they have shit for infrastructure they have literally millennia to "do better". They could, very realistically i might add, simply invent whole new classes of ships and weapons to deal with the HSF Civ in the time it takes the latter to find their homeworld, launch a fleet, and attack...which would be thousands of years minimum. I have no reason to suspect their infrastructure is that good currently, nor do i suspect they have the resources at the time, but consider that centuries will pass between contact with the HSF Civ and their attack, at best, and one can see that they have literally generations and generations to repair any of the glaring problems seen in the series.

Literally by the time the HSF Civ attacks, the UFP will have the technology of those Time Travel UFP guys from the future, because for them it WILL be the 29th century (or was it 31st? I forget...but you get my point).

[Gullible Jones]

I believe the rules of versus debates here state that if anything works for one side it works for the other.

Therefore, the laws of physics in a universe that includes Star Trek equipment such as warp drive include the physics law alterations (or extensions) necessary to make such stuff possible. It is perhaps feasible, however, for a given civilisation to have simply not discovered those extensions. Perhaps because of some racial quirk of thinking, perhaps because they haven't seen the right phenomena, who knows?

As an example, late 19th century Earth was fairly advanced in some ways - but they simply hadn't thought of nuclear power or lasers, though the clues were there. That particular door got opened, I believe, when Becquerel messed up an experiment - and was open-minded enough to investigate the cockup rather than just throw away the plate he ruined.

Once the reality of FTL travel and by extension communication (which is the only advantage of ST over any advanced HSF civilisation) is demonstrated, one can be quite sure that the HSF civilisation will be working pretty damned hard to find those alterations. And will very shortly find them, given the astronomically (literally!) enormous thinking and computing power, to say nothing of physical resources, owned by a type II.

And then the HSF civilisation turns its assemblers to creating millions of warp ships. The Feds, if they attack, get crushed like a bug. In fact, in a relatively short time the type II is a type III.

There are two rather unbelievable premises to this debate. The first is that if FTL is possible the HSF civilisation hasn't already developed it. The second is the entire set of things that the STverse hasn't done. On Federation Earth, it ought to be impossible to see the stars for the lights of the orbiting factories; the asteroids ought to be full of machinery; assorted otherwise useless giant-planet moons ought to be partially dismantled; etc. etc. etc. The only vaguely feasible reason why it hasn't happened is that some mysterious entity or group of entities (Organians, perhaps?) has prevented it.

Eh, it's a hypothetical discussion. If you wish, you can posit that it's all simulated in the mind of a transhuman intelligence, and the Trek ships are surrounded by a bubble of altered space in which their tech works, or something. It doesn't really matter, since the whole thing is an intellectual exercise - one roughly equivalent to twiddling one's thumbs, at that.

One last thought here; am I the only one here who would like to see a TV series, or movie, set in a late-period space-engineering HSF setting?

No, you're not the only one; I'd definitely like to see something like that. As long as they kept Ben Bova the hell out of it anyway.

(I suppose Planetes might qualify. Never seen it though.)

[Ghost Rider]

I again state:

"What the title says: who could beat Star Trek's Federation without violating the laws of physics"

So no, HSF would NOT get Warp Drive, since it...guess what? It GROSSLY VIOLATES the laws of physics.

The particular rule you are twisting because you can't accept it like some rabid whore, was made so people wouldn't pull shit like "NO HYPERDRIVE!!!!", not because we're comparing one series that obeys physics and another that doesn't. This situatiuon is you trying to appeal to authority without grasping one side has a stipulation already attached before it enters the event at hand. So no kinnison. A HSF universe cannot by the original premise GET warp drive because said warp drive doesn't follow the laws of physics, thus getting a warp drive would make the series no longer HARD SCIENCE FICTION as per the thought of what Hard Sci-Fi is.

So if you can't deal with that, shut the fuck up and stop trying to twist with fallacies out your ass.

[Junghalli]

Once the reality of FTL travel and by extension communication (which is the only advantage of ST over any advanced HSF civilisation) is demonstrated, one can be quite sure that the HSF civilisation will be working pretty damned hard to find those alterations.

I think you're significantly underestimating the difficult of reverse-engineering something when you don't even understand the fundamental principles behind it. A hard SF civilization trying to figure out how a warp drive works would be like eighteenth century scientists trying to figure out how a TV works. They'll have to essentially discover a whole new field of science just to have the mechanism be something other than a black box to them. It's extremely unlikely that they'll be able to do this in a time span that will allow them to start mass-producing warp ships before they're overrun, to put it mildly.

[kinnison]

OK Junghali, reverse-engineering that sort of tech difference might be very difficult. Leave aside the enormous disparity in the number of people available to work on the problem (I doubt that there were a thousand physicists anywhere in the eighteenth century, and the HSF civilisation would probably have a hundred million) and consider speed.

Imagine an AI "brain" with roughly equal complexity to a human one, but working at computer speeds. A reasonable estimate for the speed difference is a factor of a million - in fact it's probably more; a human brain works at about 20Hz whereas a computer works at maybe 3GHz. But let's be conservative and say a million. Let's also say that most of the development work in the HSF civilisation is done by AI - a bit like the Culture in this respect.

Now; let's say that the HSF civilisation has extremely good computers, practical nanotech and space travel, which puts it at maybe 2050. Star Trek (Next Generation) is set in c. 2375, IIRC. This is a timespan of about 325 years, and technology and science have gone from somewhat worse than the HSF civ to Trek tech in that time.

So what is a useful ballpark figure for how long the reverse-engineering would take, to get the science behind it? (remember, they already know Trek tech is possible, and they may have some observational data.) A crude estimate might be 325 years divided by a million. How long is that?

About three hours. And once the science is done actually making the stuff is trivial.

A nanotech, transapient AI, type II civilisation is powerful. More powerful than anyone in our society can imagine.

Given all that, Ghost Rider, if one stipulates that the HSF civilisation is prevented by deific fiat from gaining the Trek technology - then of course it will lose. Trek has a hard fight of it, though - much harder than some people here think, IMHO.

[Darth Holbytlan]

kinnison
You do realize that a good chunk of the time required to develop scientific knowledge and technologies is in running experiments, right? Being a fast thinker isn't going to make creating or running the scientific experiments or prototype testing go any faster.

[18-Till-I-Die]

I understand what he's saying kinda. But the point is moot as the whole thread concept tacitly implies that they cant "steal" so-called "soft" scifi technology.

That being said, even if they DID it would STILL be of no use.

Because even IF they develop warp, somehow, they would not be able to retrofit their shits with it in any reasonable timeframe, because it would require almost complete redesigns. At least if i understand the way warp works, it would. The hypothetical ships of an advanced "lighthugger" civilization would require a great deal of stuff to be completely rebuilt from the ground up. And THEN they still have to communicate this to the rest of their civilization, without FTL communication. Which would take centuries.

Unless MULTIPLE planets of the HSF civ get Warp tech at the same time, which is more than a little rediculous.

[Teleros]

I understand what he's saying kinda. But the point is moot as the whole thread concept tacitly implies that they cant "steal" so-called "soft" scifi technology.

They can steal it, use it, and even maintain it if that means not violating physics as we know it, but they can't reverse-engineer it or maintain things that require technobabble to maintain.

And THEN they still have to communicate this to the rest of their civilization, without FTL communication.

Or they fly out using said warp drive. However as has been said, there is still the problem that they can't develop Fed warp drives.

Just to remind some people of the OP:

Should the hard 'verse capture Federation equipment, they can use it for as long as it works, or can be recharged/refueled/maintained using technological knowlege that follows the laws of physics. However, they cannot reverse engineer Federation tech, produce it, etc.