Ahriman238 wrote:An SD can carry 500-600 flatback pods, if they don't mind covering every antenna, radar array and weapon. But pre-pod designs can only control 100 or so missiles at a time, not sure I buy that, even the old Fearless would put out three or four salvos before the first one landed, so only 2-3x their broadside in control links doesn't make a lot of sense to me. An Invictus can apparently do two or three times better, I'll look back but I think a lot of previous missile spam doesn't make sense in that light.
Typical "heavy pod loads" were limited to roughly three times the ship's broadside: an SD would carry 10-15 pods in comparison to 30-40 broadside launchers.
Also, there's references in the tech bible to the idea that doctrinally, SDs carry 120 missiles per tube in the magazines, expecting one launch per minute of sustained fire. Since the maximum drive endurance of a missile is between one and three minutes, it's actually reasonable to limit a ship's control capability to, oh... 3-5 times the number of broadside tubes. Granted,
in theory a ship could have as many as nine broadside salvoes in space simultaneously... but realistically, if you're firing one salvo per twenty seconds, you cut your own control links with wedge interference so often that you hit diminishing returns. Especially if you're also firing countermissiles at a comparable rate because the enemy's doing the same thing.
There might have been a gradual upward trend in control capability per missile tube in the late 19th and early 20th century PD even without pods, simply because you see more ships that are designed to focus on missile combat and therefore more incentive to launch (and control) missiles at close to the maximum
possible rate of fire.
For that matter, I feel pretty confident Wayfarer managed at least one 300 bird salvo.
It's not clear whether Wayfarer
did control those missiles, or just fired off all 300 of them and counted on Manticoran missile seekers to ensure that 'enough' of them hit the target even though most of them would be largely uncontrolled.
The LAC formation altered abruptly, each tiny vessel accelerating on its own, carefully preplanned vector change. Zizka was new—a variant of the "Triple Ripple" the Fleet had employed so successfully against the Manties' LACs. It was wasteful, in some ways, but with that many Manty MDMs coming towards them, they needed the best defense they could get.
Zizka, the Triple Ripple as missile defense. Same idea, burn out the seekers with hard rads.
Amusingly, Jan Zizka's pioneering tactics using heavily armed wagons in combat against enemy armored knights included "circle the wagons."
Also, note that each LAC is firing off several missiles that, taken together, might actually not weigh much less than one MDM. Although I suspect that the cost of a missile scales more or less linearly with number of drives, not so much with raw weight.
The RHN approach to keeping battlecruisers current. Double the counter-missile tubes by taking out beam weapons, and add fire-control links. Also, note that CM canisters are being used here to give the counter missiles more range as well as increased numbers. Of course, the BCs have nothing but missile-defense to contribute when the MDMs start flying.
RMN battlecruisers are in the same position, except for the podlayer and BC(L) variants that were only just starting to be laid down at this point... Seriously, using 'battlecruisers' as the heavy screening elements for task force missile defense is a good idea in my opinion.
The Manty defender's opinions of this missile defense trick. I'm starting to think the problem with Aegis was mostly being too little too late. And Simon was right, Shannon Foraker can do a lot with the concept.
Very much so; Aegis is basically
this, in terms of hardware modification. The latest Solarian battlecruiser class, with Aegis integrated is probably just as capable technologically as the latest Havenite design... the only difference is doctrine that reflects Haven's far greater war experience and adaptability.
They get a lot more launches off, presumably because the LACs are running directly away from the missiles. Though Manty EW does a to get missiles through. And now we get to see Zizka unleashed...
The LACs may also be using that 'rotary launcher' trick for countermissiles. Fleet missile defense is almost certainly a role they're partly designed for along with counter-LAC duty, so being able to spam multiple countermissile launches in rapid succession as an MDM salvo sweeps in at half the speed of light is... desirable.
... and Zizka denied. Didn't take the RMN long to adapt to that particular trick, they've even programmed missiles to avoid it. On the other hand, half the missiles don't manage to reacquire lock, and of those that do they mostly gang up on the closest third or so of the LAC swarm.
Yeah. Honestly, "stop half the missiles from hitting the target" is about as good as something like Zizka ever had a realistic chance of accomplishing, against a dispersed incoming missile salvo.
So anyway, the Manticorans fired about 1400 missiles at 500 LACs and scored hits on roughly 140-160 of them. Hit rate is about 10-12%.
Missile defense, they [Havenites] actually achieve more with the canisters than the LACs did with three salvos of CMs. Of course, proper ships should be more capable, they've got the computer support for it.
Here, the RMN fires 830 missiles at the task force's starships and scores roughly 250 hits (noting that it looks like about 15-20% of the salvo are EW platforms, and not counted in hit calculations, which is typical). Hit rate is about 30%.
So despite the battlecruisers' unexpectedly good missile defense capability, it looks like the Manticorans achieved saturation of the Havenite task force's defenses- enough that roughly half of their missiles at least got into range to engage the enemy, and three eighths or so
could have had a firing solution if they'd had warheads.
The capital ships' inability to launch a "triple ripple" barrage may have played a role here; the LACs were able to defeat half the incoming salvo that way,
after countermissile fire had thinned it out, which suggests that the hit rate on the LACs would have been more like 20-25% without Zizka.
The light cruiser Phantom went with her, victim of at least three MDMs intended for her betters, and Peregrine was severely damaged. All of Diamato's battlecruisers took at least some damage of their own, but Peregrine was far more badly hit.
Assuming the 'lost lock and reacquired' missiles were distributed randomly across the ten ships of the formation, that's three hits out of... probably eight or nine that targeted
Phantom, consistent with overall hit rate. The battlecruisers would experience similar numbers of hits unless they're a lot easier to see, which come to think of it they probably are. Figure ten or so 'random' hits on each ship in the formation as the missiles try to reacquire targets...
And each carrier eats something like 80-100 hits from heavy system defense MDMs apiece, which is enough to ensure a mission-kill on one ship and a catastrophic-kill on the other. This is one of the few benchmarks we have of
just exactly how hard it is to kill Honorverse ships with MDM fire. Havenite CLACs are massive targets built to the same scale as the largest missile-ships on either side... but on the other hand, the LAC bays are huge empty spaces that easily take up half their internal volume, probably more; LACs are
biiig and this thing has to somehow wrap 250 or so of them around its hull. I actually have trouble visualizing that, although it is just barely possible given that the carrier is about ten times longer, higher, and wider than the LAC. So wrapping five or six 'girdles' of LACs around the hull is probably doable...ish, and each of them COULD include up to forty LACs. Alternatively, you could stack them two deep in 125-130 broadside-on bays, each containing one 'inboard' LAC and one 'outboard' LAC if you are
really willing to cut into other broadside systems.
[Basing that on the
Series 282 LAC and
Gryphon-class SD, which I have figures I can actually look up because I posted them earlier]
Anyway, the point is that I feel it fairly reasonable to estimate that an
Aviary would be able to survive at most half and at least a quarter of the pounding of a "properly" armored warship built to the same scale... giving us 200-400 MDM hits to knock out a superdreadnought. Somewhere in the low single digit hundreds, anyway... which is fairly consistent with what we've seen throughout the series.
Regardless of how many missiles get
launched, that is roughly the number of hits you need to score to wreck a capital ship with capital-class laser heads.
Skylark is dead, Peregrine heavily damaged yet strangely still hyper-capable. Diamoto orders her to pull out and leave the LACs, because in the final equation the carrier is less expendable than it's entire complement.
That, or Diamato just doesn't like LACs
for some inexplicable reason?
Nothing personal against the crews, mind, it's just that he hates
LACs. Gee, why might that be?
I kid. Probably.
____________________________
Also, an insane tactic for dodging missile barrages fired from long range at LACs just occurred to me: shut down your impeller wedge. Seriously, LACs are maneuverable enough that there
probably isn't a recon drone within radar range of your LAC formation if you're fifty million kilometers from the enemy defenses... and at those ranges you don't show up on anything except gravitics. You're practically invisible.
This probably wouldn't work, actually, for several reasons.
Terralthra wrote:Worth noting that a simple perpendicular course change in the incoming MDM missile swarm should be, by the geometry of the engagement, a losing proposition. The MDMs at their terminal velocity have a huge vector toward where the incoming force targeted their triple ripple to go off, and until Apollo, the defending ships have a lot better chance of adjusting their outgoing track to blanket the area (and adjusting their missile track midflight) than the attacking ships have to adjust their missiles' evasive maneuvres to dodge the ripple.
Well, all you really have to do is make sure your missile is pointing 'up' or 'down' and away from the ripple when the warheads go off. It's a totally viable tactic to "look away" for only a couple of seconds, which even at missile accelerations will impart a lateral delta-V of about 1000 km/s at these ranges. Enough that it can be corrected for by turning again and pointing the wedge in the opposite direction for a few
more seconds, as long as you get something like 10 seconds' advance notice that the ripple is coming for you.
Which, at MDM terminal attack velocities... is a few million kilometers. O_o
Ahriman238 wrote:Having been upgraded from a task force commander to a full Fleet, it should come as no surprise that Honor has less capital ships than Janacek let her take to Sidemore. After all, she's only commanding the sole force going on the offensive, what would she do with podnoughts if she had them?
Anyway, think about the strategic situation. Haven only lost about twenty of the wall during Operation Thunderbolt, tops; Manticore lost at least six or seven. Both sides have essentially the same force levels they did before the war, except that the Alliance has the Andermani ships... which, coincidentally, aren't fit to fight a
proper MDM battle without further modification.
And the correlation of forces in Thunderbolt was... pretty unfavorable; the RMN was unable to stop Havenite task forces anywhere except at Sidemore and Trevor's Star. They
must hold Trevor's Star and Grayson or they've practically lost the war already, and they must hold the Manticore Binary System or they
do lose the war.
Doing so during Thunderbolt required basically every ship the RMN and GSN had, and Haven is no less powerful now than it was then. So doing so
still requires basically every ship the RMN and GSN has. About the only place they can actually take ships away from, ships that are no longer required to defend vital systems, is Sidemore.
The Sidemore fleet is their
last reserve force, the only group of ships that were not committed to a vital objective. So that's six RMN SD(P)s, plus the Protector's Own... and since Benjamin left Grayson virtually uncovered during Thunderbolt, he's probably going to have to recall the Protector's Own to defend his own homeworld.
Which leaves Honor with, yeah, pretty much the same wall of battle she had last book.
Despite that, she's a
bit stronger. The SD(P)s she
does have are better ones than the
Medusas from last book. And she now has multiple BC(P)s and the sole BC(L), all of which are capable of contributing meaningfully in a major fleet action... Even if it takes three BC(P)s to punch as hard as two SD(P)s, and even if the BC(P)s have only a tiny fraction the survivability as individual platforms. Plus, as noted, way more carriers.
So the new Eighth Fleet would probably wipe the floor with the old Task Force 34, not counting Grayson reinforcements.
And as noted, what we see is that her force mix is dominated by battlecruisers, cruisers, and LACs... which are, coincidentally, the units the RMN doctrinally favors for raids. Wonder why?
The previous war raged for nearly a decade. This time though, both Manticore and Haven have independently come to the conclusion they need to wrap things up within two years. Manticore is afraid of Haven catastrophically outbuilding them, Haven doesn't want to give Manticore time to design, test and deploy further wunderwaffen.
Well, Manticore would probably love it if the Havenites decided to 'take five' for three years or so... because that gives them time to get their next wave of construction into commission and resume building SD(P)s at a wartime rate of dozens a year. In other words, to reach full war mobilization.
Haven is already
at full war mobilization, and in fact is just hitting their stride... which means striding all over the Manticoran Alliance just as soon as they recover their balance from that last massive haymaker they swung.
The mission brief. Maybe they should make Eighth a joint force again, invite Grayson and the Andermani to contribute a few ships? They could double her podnoughts with hardly any effort.
Andermani SD(P)s haven't got the missile range to fight alongside Manticoran SD(P)s until the refits come through, and even then will be 'second-line' ships. Much better to use an Andermani SD(P) to free up a Manticoran ship to fight on the front lines by using it to garrison a system that
might be attacked, if you ask me.
Grayson, well, they've pretty much hit an upper bound on the ships they can possibly man and maintain, and I suspect they can't commit more ships than they did during Thunderbolt. Most of which are either helping to secure Trevor's Star, or
were sent to Sidemore and will now have to be recalled... because now Haven knows Grayson is still willing to send ships to support the Alliance. They didn't know that during Thunderbolt, or they would have attacked Grayson too; now that they do there is a very strong temptation for Theisman to see if his fourth time tangling with Graysons is a charm.
[He always survived the experience before, which is more than most can say, no?]
If Giscard shows up with the same fleet that declined battle at Trevor's Star, throwing, say, 50-80 of the wall on Grayson,
can they stop him? Good question, and the GSN will take considerable pains to make sure the answer is as close to 'yes' as possible.
So no, I don't think Grayson will have a lot of ships to spare now.
Prichart's follow-up offers for renewed talks, which the Queen has shot down. Manticore has published their copies of the diplomatic correspondence and both sides are calling each other liars over it. Also, the skipped over her offer for third-party observers to the plebiscites' organization.
Also confirms my theory that a renewed cease-fire would be to Manticore's advantage right now. WOO!
[does happy I-was-right dance]
And that's that. In the grimdark future of the Fourth Millennium, there is only war.
Unless the psyker witchcraft kicks in. Thaaat'd help.
Naval contraception, and the clerical error that let it run over.
Well
gee Honor, just because your protection lasts a decade doesn't mean you get to forget about it!
Allison Chou Harrington was a Beowulfer by birth. More than that, she was a daughter of one of the great medical "dynasties" of Beowulf. For her, the termination of a pregnancy was unthinkable, except under the most unusual possible circumstances. Something out of the barbaric era before medicine had made so many alternatives available.
Beowulf doesn't allow abortions, though Manticore does.
Beowulf also has pretty strict social pressures favoring advance family planning as I recall; conspicuously large families are frowned on. People who have kids too fast are criticized, and we've just seen how trivially easy it is to postpone having children for years or decades with Honorverse medical technology.
Of course, they've had prolong long enough that basically everyone on the planet who isn't dead has centuries of life and fertility to look forward to, they
invented prolong!
Hm. I wonder what the options are like for male birth control.
"Even so, there's no medical reason you have to rush things," he argued gently. "You've already ruled out simply terminating the pregnancy. Obviously, that means tubing or a surrogacy. And if you're going to have the child tubed, you're talking about a routine out-patient procedure. Your mother's a geneticist, not an OB, but she could perform the procedure in a half-hour."
Surrogacy and 'tubing' or uterine replicators. Remove fetus and transplant in an artificial womb. This is one of those odd little technologies that pops up here and there in sci-fi (and in the weirdest places), because it removes many of the risks and downsides to pregnancy...
True that.
and allows quicker reproduction with women getting back into the breeding population much faster.
Which is
not usually one of the reasons listed.
Seriously, artificial wombs are one of those technologies we'd almost certainly develop if we could, but it turns out precisely replicating the very complex system required to support a developing fetus is
hard, and screwing it up means mutant flipper-babies, so it's probably not going to happen for a long time in real life.
Honor's mother has come up with nanites programmed to destroy any ova bearing the defect that causes so many male stillbirths on Grayson. But there's significant resistance, some religious, a lot based on simple appeals to fear, to using them.
Hard to blame people. The male-female birth ratio on Grayson is 1:3, so two thirds of all males conceived must have the defect...
How many women are there who'd flinch if you told them you were going to inject them with nanobots that would seek out and kill 50-70% of their remaining ova? I'm guessing "most."