RAR : 2012!China sent back to the Boxer Rebellion

[Purple]

What about option 3? China unitary declares that anyone who tests a nuclear weapon is committing an act of war against them and is immediately to be nuked back into the stone age. It sounds like a sensible thing to do after all. Especially in a world where no one else has even a remote capability of striking back.

[Simon_Jester]

What about option 3? China unitary declares that anyone who tests a nuclear weapon is committing an act of war against them and is immediately to be nuked back into the stone age. It sounds like a sensible thing to do after all. Especially in a world where no one else has even a remote capability of striking back.

...No, it really isn't, because you can't suppress nuclear missile or bomb technology forever without trying to artificially keep the rest of the world's tech base locked in the 1920s. China doesn't want to do that. And you may not have noticed, but the Chinese aren't actually a bunch of RED DAWN wannabe conquistador types; the idea of other states eventually developing their own nuclear deterrent won't necessarily bother them.

Would China or even Taiwan really want to give that knowledge away? I mean yes, show the world that nukes exist but I imagine China would do everything in its power to not let anyone else make them in order to retain the edge of being the worlds first and only nuclear power.

They don't actually have to give doctrinal knowledge away. Just selling a World War One power a brigade's worth of Type 59 tanks (which China has in ridiculous numbers) and operations manuals would let them steamroll over any similar army not similarly equipped. There was basically nothing in a World War One power's arsenal that could feasibly deal with tanks like that; their effect on a pitched battle would be pretty decisive, even if they're used crudely as "form them up into a hammer and smash them through the toughest enemy defenses." Even imagining them as bulletproof cavalry that brought their own siege guns would work.

As soon as people will connect the dots "Relativity = Superweapon", there's going to be a race to see who can build a Bomb first.

Relativity is largely irrelevant to the atomic bomb; knowing every last scrap of relativity (including the general theory, not just the special theory) doesn't bring you much closer to building one. What matters is quantum mechanics. The sequence goes something like this; I've associated names with most of the steps, and dates. The names I give are NOT the only ones involved, but looking them up gives you a place to start:

-Discover radioactivity (Becquerel/Curie 1895-1900)
-Discover early quantum theory. (Planck/Bohr 1900-05)
-Discover special relativity. (Einstein 1905)
-Discover basic model of the atom. (Rutherford 1905-10)
-Discover 'mature' quantum theory (Schroedinger/Heisenberg 1920s)
-Discover relativity-compliant quantum field theory (Dirac, 1925-30)
-Discover the neutron (Chadwick 1932)
-Discover better model of the atom (Yukawa 1935-40)
-Discover fission of light uranium isotopes (Meitner 1938)
-Discover plutonium (Seaborg 1940-41)
...
-Write letter to head of state asking for umpty billion dollars to build secret weapon (Einstein 1941)
-Spend five years working out neutron capture cross-sections, doing calculations, doing more calculations, doing engineering, putting your work under military censorship, doing MORE calculations, accidentally killing one of your researchers with a criticality excursion, doing EVEN MORE calculations... (Manhattan Project 1941-46)
-Nervously test bomb (Manhattan Project 1945)
-BOOM

Relativity isn't the key. Quantum field theory is, and it's extremely difficult; getting their hands on the relevant theories (which China is very likely to censor, or try to) and getting the theorists to wrap their brains around the implication will probably take thirty years at a minimum anyway.

It could very well force the start of the First World War, as Nations do their best to crush the concurrence before they have a chance to complete their program and menace them ; and create a situation that if a Second World War is to break, it is likely to be fought with Atomic Weapons.
Or maybe it will have the inverse effect, and there will be no World War altogether. I don't know.

World War One will be decided a lot faster. It's almost inevitable that it will happen, but whoever has the better access to the potentially decisive Chinese armament industry wins by default, and wins fast- no 1900 or 1910 level army can stand up to attack helicopters or main battle tanks, even in relatively small numbers.

Hell, helicopters with antitank missiles are a very credible and hard to counter threat to World War One battleships.

World War Two, fought as a rematch of World War One, may or may not ever happen- it depends on details that are inherently hard to predict.

So the war will be a lot less bloody, less brutally exhausting for France, Germany, and Britain, but possibly no less expensive. Russia will likely fall apart anyway because they were teetering on the brink of collapse as it was- Alexander II was simply nowhere near competent to hold the regime together under the pressures of the era, because he wouldn't moderate the system fast enough to keep the revolutionaries from gaining ground.

[Purple]

I don't think you get what I am saying S_J. Or rather, I think you confused me with that other guy and mixed our replies up. I newer said anything about conventional weapons, doctrinal knowledge or conquistador and stuff like that. I only ever mentioned nuclear weapons.

I don't dispute that China would sell its advanced (or less advanced) equipment left and right. Hell, they don't even have to sell tanks. Even surplus SKS rifles and RPG's will do quite nicely to achieve the effect you described. All I said was that it would probably take a dim view of anyone developing Nuclear Weapons in particular. Look at Iran today. Everyone is whispering that they want to make a nuke and everyone is nervous about it. I can quite imagine Chinese leaders looking back at the cold war and thinking the world does not need that happening again. Looking at the world nations of the 20's that went into two world wars within several decades, thinking of them and nuclear weapons together and having the same gut reaction as America had when uncle Kim tested his bomb. And so I can quite imagine them doing something with their nuclear arsenal to impose some sort of world wide moratorium on making nukes. And the fact that this would leave them as the worlds only nuclear superpower would sure help.

[Simon_Jester]

Rifles and RPGs... no, taken alone they are not enough to prevent trench warfare. It's armor and air power that change that equation by being immune to antipersonnel weapons, which means they can crunch through a defense that would stop human wave attacks cold.

All I said was that it would probably take a dim view of anyone developing Nuclear Weapons in particular. Look at Iran today. Everyone is whispering that they want to make a nuke and everyone is nervous about it. I can quite imagine Chinese leaders looking back at the cold war and thinking the world does not need that happening again. Looking at the world nations of the 20's that went into two world wars within several decades, thinking of them and nuclear weapons together and having the same gut reaction as America had when uncle Kim tested his bomb. And so I can quite imagine them doing something with their nuclear arsenal to impose some sort of world wide moratorium on making nukes. And the fact that this would leave them as the worlds only nuclear superpower would sure help.

I don't think it's so likely. For one thing, the shape of the 1920-era governments that can at least contemplate building nuclear weapons would be totally different from the historical record. For another, none of those nations are likely to order nuclear first strikes, with the possible exception of Imperial Japan which is crazy enough to do anything. Nazi Germany might do it, but they don't exist, and may never exist because the RAR changed the entire history of Europe from 1900 on.

And, of course, don't forget the sheer difficulty of maintaining that nuclear monopoly without blowing up nations that are your best trading partners. Is it really worth wrecking half of England to stop the British Empire from getting the bomb?

[mr friendly guy]

So if the Chinese sell some of their stuff to the waring powers, presumably the one power who can buy more will win, thus bringing WWI to an end faster. Ok, what happens if the Chinese drag this out and sell stuff to powers who aren't as rich as the US or the British Empire? Have a policy similar to the British of balancing the weaker power to partially offset the stronger one. Then what? Will the war drag on just as much, until one side figures out how to better use tanks and more modern equipment?

[Simon_Jester]

If it's World War One, the Allies have a huge advantage over the Entente in that they dominate the world ocean far from China's shores. Tanks and guns shipped to Germany or Austria-Hungary still have to pass through the Suez canal or the Atlantic, and the British and French can lock those access routes down very effectively, unless the Chinese enter the war outright, which is unlikely.

Hell, even if the Chinese enter the war, short of nuclear attacks there's not a lot they could do about it, simply for the lack of the ability to physically sail ships and weapons to the other side of the world and deliver a substantial military punch. Their navy is mostly range-limited.

[Lusankya]

Why would China even want to get involved in a European war? It would just be expensive, and is completely at odds with the mythology of the Han being a peaceful non-expansionist race.

I can imagine them trying to delay the invention of nuclear weapons as long as possible, however the Chinese leadership aren't idiots. They know that people invented them from scratch by 1945 in the real world, so they'd know that mere withholding of information won't do much good in the long run. I can see them deciding to go and buy off all of the world's richest uranium mines, however. The beauty of it is that for plenty of uranium mines, you can even just pass off your desire for the mine as being due to a really pressing need of copper.

[Simon_Jester]

I would never expect them to get involved.

I would expect them to sell weapons at utterly ludicrous prices, because it's such an incredibly easy way for them to make a quick buck. Then again, maybe they wouldn't.

I'm not sure buying off uranium mines would work too well. This is still an age of tariffs, and there will be a lot of countries reluctant to let China get a lock on their mineral rights; the US is one of them.

[madd0ct0r]

maybe they would sell, maybe they wouldn't.

don't forget we have two powers acting here - China and Taiwan. I can easily see Taiwan giving plane designs to a power (not japan) in return for a level of protection. Taiwan basically needs the factory potential of the somewhere else to have even a hope of not being steamrollered.

[mr friendly guy]

If it's World War One, the Allies have a huge advantage over the Entente in that they dominate the world ocean far from China's shores. Tanks and guns shipped to Germany or Austria-Hungary still have to pass through the Suez canal or the Atlantic, and the British and French can lock those access routes down very effectively, unless the Chinese enter the war outright, which is unlikely.

Hell, even if the Chinese enter the war, short of nuclear attacks there's not a lot they could do about it, simply for the lack of the ability to physically sail ships and weapons to the other side of the world and deliver a substantial military punch. Their navy is mostly range-limited.

However they have around one decade to sell stuff to the Europeans before hostilities break out. Even if they just declare themselves neutral during the war and stop all shipments, they could possibly have armed both sides equal amounts to balance out the warring factions.

[Purple]

maybe they would sell, maybe they wouldn't.

don't forget we have two powers acting here - China and Taiwan. I can easily see Taiwan giving plane designs to a power (not japan) in return for a level of protection. Taiwan basically needs the factory potential of the somewhere else to have even a hope of not being steamrollered.

What makes you think China will allow Taiwan to do anything? I mean sure a blockade or something similar might lead to a war between the two. And such a war would be short and bloody. But without America at their back would Taiwan really have the guts to call China's bluff as opposed to just submitting to them in exchange for not being steamrolled?

[Chirios]

China is likely to draw close to the Ottoman empire in this scenario. China needs oil, badly, so trading weapons to the Ottomans is a perfectly viable strategy. Does China currently have warships capable of reaching the Persian gulf?

Who is the worlds largest coal producer in the Pacific region? America, correct? China needs coal to power it's manufacturing plants until it can get its alternative fuel system set up, and trading guns to the US isn't that bad an idea considering how insular the USA is at this point in history.

[mr friendly guy]

China has shit loads of coal, so much that it can use the coal to convert to liquid fuels. If it needs extra sources just look to Outer Mongolia, who in the 1900 timeline is still nominally part of China. They may even decide fuck it, this new China is so much better than the one it replaced we should forgot about those secession plans.

It needs however oil.

[Rabid]

The US at the time, if I understand things rights, is the N°1 producer of oil worldwide.

As far as getting oil goes, it may not be as elegant a solution as buying colonial concessions and developing them from scratch, but at least it would have the advantage of already being there ; and with the trade generated China may well decide to re-create to some extent the commercial ties it had with the US, or at least to teach the Americans how to better extract the oil in their soil.

I mean, it isn't even sure that the US would get involved in "WWI" at this point, and so it would be a less risky investment. Plus, they only have to cross the Pacific to do trade, whereas to trade with Europe the Chinese would have to cross three quarter of the world by sea.

[Simon_Jester]

Rabid, at this time, oil production was very small scale and mostly on the East Coast. I doubt there were any transcontinental oil pipelines, and the transcontinental rail links had only been completed in the past ten to thirty years. While rolling tank cars of oil across the country is certainly possible, it will not supply enough oil to run the Chinese economy, and cannot for some years until infrastructure is improved.

Getting oil in the quantities China needs is going to be a really serious problem; they will need to explore a lot of options, and the US is only one of them.

However they have around one decade to sell stuff to the Europeans before hostilities break out. Even if they just declare themselves neutral during the war and stop all shipments, they could possibly have armed both sides equal amounts to balance out the warring factions.

Two problems with that. One is that the war could easily break out sooner, precipitated by the consequences of 2012!China's arrival. Early 20th century Europe was very unstable in that regard.

The other problem is that consumption of all sorts of military supplies increases during war. If the war lasts any real length of time (admittedly, the influence of Chinese weapons makes this unpredictable), then choking off shipment of your enemy's new munitions to top off his arms stockpiles becomes decisive.

[Ariphaos]

Could Taiwan use this sort of technology as a bargaining chip to get protection from the elder Great Powers?

Basically, there are going to be tourists and businessmen from America and other countries in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and the rest of China, and the only way to stop this knowledge from spreading is going to be killing them all. As this will include tankers and planes that are taking off as this occurs, this is essentially going to be impossible. Many of these people are going to know the basics behind how a microchip works, how a nuclear bomb works, etc. even if the specifics are not clear.

China now represents nearly half of the world's population. A campaign of conquest would be quite easy for them. Their current position of peace is because they consider the US military machine to be effectively invulnerable. That no longer exists in a world in which only they have nukes, ballistic missiles, satellites, roughly 95% of the world's industrial capacity, and a clear lack of scruples on the part of its leadership.

China declares war on the rest of the world. Wins. The world is now slaves to the Chinese Corporate Communist state. Pretty much the only thing stopping them is if Europe and America can get nukes fast enough to act as a deterrent, which is by no means guaranteed.

[Ariphaos]

Ach. Oil would be a major problem for China to be able to to much of anything. Currently, they're importing some odd 200 million tonnes of oil per year, apparently. There's a chance that they might just up and collapse, with half of their oil needs basically vanishing overnight.

[mr friendly guy]

Could Taiwan use this sort of technology as a bargaining chip to get protection from the elder Great Powers?

Basically, there are going to be tourists and businessmen from America and other countries in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and the rest of China, and the only way to stop this knowledge from spreading is going to be killing them all. As this will include tankers and planes that are taking off as this occurs, this is essentially going to be impossible. Many of these people are going to know the basics behind how a microchip works, how a nuclear bomb works, etc. even if the specifics are not clear.

China now represents nearly half of the world's population. A campaign of conquest would be quite easy for them. Their current position of peace is because they consider the US military machine to be effectively invulnerable. That no longer exists in a world in which only they have nukes, ballistic missiles, satellites, roughly 95% of the world's industrial capacity, and a clear lack of scruples on the part of its leadership.

China declares war on the rest of the world. Wins. The world is now slaves to the Chinese Corporate Communist state. Pretty much the only thing stopping them is if Europe and America can get nukes fast enough to act as a deterrent, which is by no means guaranteed.

Remember guys, America invades other countries on bullshit reasons while China stays within its own borders. But you see, its China thats the aggressive one. Oh sorry, I mean lacks scruples.

But it gets better. You see, when people point out China hasn't fought a war outside its territory, since I don't know, 1979, why that doesn't count because <insert reason here>. Unfalsifiable claim FOR TEH WIN.

[Chirios]

Ach. Oil would be a major problem for China to be able to to much of anything. Currently, they're importing some odd 200 million tonnes of oil per year, apparently. There's a chance that they might just up and collapse, with half of their oil needs basically vanishing overnight.

Which is why I think they'll spend a lot of time trying to butter up the middle east with technology and weapons transfers. If they got permission, and with rationing, I don't think it would be out of reason for them to build large oil refineries in the Persian gulf. Over perhaps a decade or more, if they can control their populace in the interim, they might be able to relax rations until they can get modern day production capabilities, at which point it's "back to usual folks; only this time America isn't suspicious of us. Soft power for the win!"

[Rabid]

Hypothesis :

In order to meet their need for Crude Oil, China could invest in the Middle-East (Iran & Arabia).

Consequences :

To import said oil back to China, there would be two solutions :
- By sea, passing an area of the world seas heavily dominated by the British Empire and far from lands that China could use as refueling bases for its own fleets (which could force them to heavily invest in a nuke-powered fleet if they want to secure this supply line)
- By creating an oil pipeline between Iran and China passing by Afghanistan, but which would need for China to also invest & stabilize Afghanistan in the long term.


Alternatively, the Chinese could negotiate with the Russians up north in order to exploit the oil fields of Siberia.

[mr friendly guy]

I will go with the Russian option and come to some sort of deal with the British empire. Because if history takes a similar course, within a decade it will be too busy dealing with other European nations to pay attention to China.

[Purple]

There is also one more thing to consider that we all forgot. What about communism? Sure, China is not your average communist country but it still is one. How would the Chinese see the various communist uprisings and movements of the day (well, a few decades down the line)? Would they support and thus accelerate the Russian revolution? What about say the German revolution of 1919? Would that one have actually yielded a communist Germany? Would we see these and others happening sooner? And would we end up with a communist Europe with a Chinese hegemon (like the USSR was back in the day) in the long run? It might just be the best thing from the Chinese perspective.

[Simon_Jester]

Rabid, that pipeline would be incredibly expensive and run up and down huge mountains- completing it would take decades. Ship traffic is far more likely; the British may dominate those territorial waters, but they themselves have a long tradition of enabling free trade, and it wouldn't be hard for the Chinese to deter any harassment the British might attempt. One thing the Chinese would do right away, for example, is try to steal a march on D'Arcy and negotiate with the Persian Shah for a monopoly on Persian oil rights. Similar agreements with the Ottomans would be easy enough to arrange as well.

[Chirios]

Alright, so China has a way to obtain oil. How long do people think it would take to build the oilfields and refineries btw? Also, and I may be getting this wrong, wasn't the Ottoman Empire on the side of the Germans in WWI? Which means that China has at least a decade before the British will be seriously considering cutting Chinese access to Middle East oil.

[Rabid]

I'm sure a pipeline through Afghanistan would be expensive as hell ; but considering the political situation of the world at this date, putting myself in the shoes of the men in charge in Beijing, I wouldn't be very comfortable with the idea of having half of my economy relying on a maritime road of which I have no realistic mean of ensuring the safety short of buying (a part of) Sri-Lanka and (Singapore/Malaysia/Indonesia).

This is why I would instead tend to recommend the Russian option, and developing the oil fields of Siberia and the Caspian sea. Note that by having an agreement with Russia (at the time controlling Central Asia and Georgie/Azerbaijan/Armenia), you would also gain access to Iran, killing two birds with one stone.

The question then, for Beijing, would be to maintain the oil flowing when the country will inevitably enter the Revolution and the Czar and his clique will fall.

Also, Siberia's and Kazakhstan's soils are rich in Iron, Uranium, and other precious elements that are as essential than Oil to China's economy.

I think that in the long run Beijing would have everything to gain from stabilizing Russia and making it its first trade partner. And the Russian Communists, once the Revolution is over and they are a pariah for the rest of the world, will be glad to have a faithful trade partner injecting fresh currency into their economy.