It may be a moot point, anyway. I ran the Universal Sandbox simulation for about 2,500 years, and while every few centuries the two Saturns would pass each other, their orbital instability ensured they weren't on the exact 'path' and so they were still several million kilometers from each other when this happened. Perhaps after a large number of iterations they'll eventually be close enough to collide, but if that's eighty thousand years from now, who cares?Simon_Jester wrote:If they can't, we can't either. It's the kind of thing you build when you've already got most of a Dyson shell's worth of sunpower satellites in orbit and are seriously thinking about dismantling Mercury for building materials. The space-elves weren't there yet as a civilization.JMHthe3rd wrote:Well, I don't know about the technical feasibility, but in Larry Niven's World Out of Time Uranus is moved via a gigantic pulse engine that uses the gas giant's atmosphere as fuel. The lower end of the tube stays lit to keep the engine "afloat," while the end outside produces thrust to push against the atmosphere. Rinse, repeat.
But then, this isn't something the Saturnines are going to build anytime soon.
These close fly-byes might mess up the moons' orbits, however.
This was just a scenario that popped into my head. I just finished reading John Birmingham's Weapons of Choice in which a UN naval fleet from 2021 gets ISOT'd to June 2nd, 1942, right before the Battle of Midway. I kind of played around with that general idea, and the narrative aspect of this ISOT reflects some of the tropes commonly associated with the ISOT genre. Like Eric Flint's 1632 and SM Stirling's Nantucket series, the Saturnine Elves are essentially a non-industrial "small town" transported to more primitive world. I decided against just having them come from the future, because I think their lack of shared history with the humans adds to their "otherness."Elheru Aran wrote:Are you basically asking us to vet your writing or something? Because that's what it smells like.
Agreed. For the AH forum, I'll clean up the silliness a bit. The elf bit is a little distracting. Perhaps I'll just go with them being homo sapiens or near enough as to make no difference[1]. But whenever their timeline diverged from ours, it was well before recorded history.Simon_Jester wrote:Although honestly this is offset by the... well, the WOW COOL SPACE ELVES aspect. I think that intentionally making them "like the elves from Skyrim" and using one of the most overused cliches of fantasy writing plus one of the most pop-culturey video games of the past few years... not a good combination.
[1]-Albeit a genetically augmented, immortal, racially mingled humanity. In fact, I think I prefer this. This may influence race relations on Earth.
Consequences more than the writing itself. The narrative part of my post was quickly written, and was more to just get the general idea across.Simon_Jester wrote:Also, the problem here is that it's not clear whether you're asking us to vet the technical quality of your writing, or the consequences that would evolve in the story.
Even if the Saturnines give every indication they're peaceful, they're still a threat neither the United States or Soviet Union can counter. What if they decided to bombard Earth from orbit? Or drop dino-killers? Or hell, even just threaten to? The humans need to get some pieces in the game. Space needs to be weaponized ASAP. As another poster on the SB forum pointed out, we should expect to see these become reality:That said. Elves are boned in the long term. Their best options are probably to work out a mutually beneficial trade agreement slash resettlement with Earth. They will have the temporary upper hand thanks to higher technology, but that's about it. Knowing there's a for-real alien race out there will give the human race strong motivation to expand out into space.
Excellent points. On reflection, I do see a pressure to immigrate to Earth, and the governments of Earth would welcome people with advanced scientific knowledge. However, as madd0ct0r pointed out, the threat nuclear war may spook the Saturnines into staying in space.Simon_Jester wrote:Very debateable. I don't know if you ever found this out, but nuclear pulse propulsion has problems. Some of them are major unsolved engineering issues (building the shock absorbers, making sure the pusher plate isn't ablated away by point blank nuclear initiations). Others are social issues (this is the height of the Cold War, both sides just got done pushing a test ban treaty to avoid dumping even more fallout into the atmosphere, neither side is going to be remotely inclined to trust the other with a big flying gun platform that is by its very definition armed with hundreds of nuclear bombs).
It is more likely that the Earth powers will seek to use their political leverage over the space-elves (we have the only long-term viable biosphere in the solar system, and the only population base that could conceivably sustain your industry)
One reason "Isle in the Sea of Time" stories tend to strand modern protagonists in primitive times is that in primitive times, local power blocs would be less capable of a systematic, coordinated, organized response to the sudden appearance of a handful of technologically advanced foreigners in their midst. They might not be stupid or easy pushovers, but they're still limited in terms of communications and the list of 'thinkable' concepts, prone to mistake high technology for magic and so on.
Here, the space-elves have to contend with powers that are much more organized and capable of communicating with each other, and that have the real humans' experience of what happens when a handful of advanced people come into contact with a larger mass of primitive people.
Let's say, three hundred or so years ago, there was a limited nuclear war in their past. Something between regional powers (think, India and Pakistan), but which still resulted in over a billion dead and massive ecological damage. While the Saturnines managed to avoid the worse fate of nuclear warfare between superpowers, nuclear war is still more than hypothetical to them.
So this is understandably worrying to them, and while between the two superpowers they see the the US as the lesser of evils (though still, by their standards, brutal and oppressive), they know they can't play favorites when it comes to sharing technology.
Let's slow down their ship a bit. Instead of two weeks, it takes a more reasonable two months for their scout ships to reach Earth. In the mean time they learn our languages through a combination of radio and television broadcasts and exchanged messages. [2] With the aid of computer translators, there are soon able to converse with us.
What do they say?
Anything they know about us will be only through broadcast media and what we tell them, both of which they know are unreliable. To make sure we don't just drag them off and dissect them as soon their shuttle lands, they're likely to use a "gunboat diplomacy bluff" to make themselves seem more powerful than they really are--which may scare us into boondoggling up a "space military" (in however limited capacity).
However, the likely arrangement would be to evenly share what they're willing to share (medicine, yes; fusion bombs, no) in return for patent rights. After all, you're right in that there's certain technologies they can't maintain with their low population. But it's possible to "ascend the tech tree" when you both a) know exactly what tools you need to make the tools to make the tools etc, and b) have the financial, material and labor assets to get this done. Around Timmuz, they have "a"[3] but not "b." True, the Earthling laborers don't know the science, but they can learn. It'll just take time.
So, while the colonies around Timmuz putter along in their gradually diminishing self-sufficiency, the elves on Earth can use the native labor pool to build components they can't fabricate on their own. The problem of course is that these components will cost a crazy dollars-to-pound price just to get into orbit . . . and then they have to be ferried back to Timmuz. So there's a conflict here: On one hand the Timmuz colonies are good security in case things turn south on Earth, but on the other they're a big money hole. However, the more stuff they ship to Tiimmuz, the more the colonies will (hopefully) build up their industry and become self-sufficient[4]. Also, the more they beef up Earth's materials science, the cheaper it'll be to send things into orbit.
The space elevator will be a long term project, and one not expected to be complete in anything less than several decades.
But what will we be doing? It'll take several years for the Saturnines to work through the various stages of development, but soon anti-agathic treatments, cancer cures and regenerative medicine will be on the market. Not to mention genetic engineering. I'm seeing this happening in the early eighties, albeit it'd be at first prohibitively expensive, but that will change.
Ditto for computer technology.
The space race will probably take an even more competitive character, not only the US vs. USSR, but against the Saturnines. I guess claims of territorial rights and whatnot would be determined by treaties, I guess.
[2]-If they're homo sapiens with a point of divergence of only, say, six thousand years ago, there may be a recognizable common liquistic ground, at least for ancient tongues.
[3]-The Timmuz colonists are overly represented by scientists and engineers (after all, they live in space habitats, ships and moon colonies), and while none of them are trained to ascend a tech tree from 20th century tech, they have extensive data in their computers, and they are smart. There'll be blunders in their progress, but technology will advance much faster than it did in our timeline.
[4]-Presumably some of these Earth-built components will be equipment and machinery to jump start a space-based industry--even if only on a small scale.
The Apollo Program is aborted--why spend billions so a couple of astronauts can spend a few hours prancing about around on the moon?
Good point.It's too late to save significant money. All the hardware for Apollo has already been purchased. Also, the hardware and development for Apollo (including the Saturn V) represents the best prospect for putting materiel into orbit in the foreseeable future. Because IF development of Orion ever does get going, the system is (literally) unlikely to get off the ground before 1985-1990 at the earliest.
Until then, refinement of chemical rocket launch infrastructure is the only game in town. NASA won't be shutting down Apollo, they'll be scaling up their launch infrastructure and developing post-Apollo design concepts. The goal may have more to do with orbital construction than with deep-space exploration, but it's still there.
Yeah, I was thinking of Footfall too. On further reflection, I think Project Orion is very unlikely to get off the ground. It would escalate the Cold War to such a degree that only a madman would go through with it, and the Saturnines would go ape shit. They already see a nuclear war as likely scenario, so launching giant tin cans full of nukes would in their eyes make that a forgone conclusion. Plus there'd likely be a huge public backlash against the idea, especially if the elves are wise enough to ingratiate themselves with the public media.Trust me, Orion drive isn't going to work like Footfall, it's not something you can build on the fly and seriously expect it to work. Either there will be numerous disasters in the testing phase (each of them causing massive radioactive fallout on Earth), or there will be a long, long period of prototyping and testing, over and above the multiple years of negotiation required to get the go-ahead to do start serious work on it at all. Probably the project can't be completed until semimodern computer modeling software becomes available in the '80s and '90s, I think.
And the US pulls out of Vietnam. Who cares about some Southeast Asian jungle country? Those space battleships and orbital weapons platforms and lunar missile bases aren't going to built themselves, and they aren't going to be cheap. Better tighten the belt and prioritize.
I think a deescalation would be very likely. Importance is relative, and while Vietnam was an issue of national pride, the sudden existence of aliens would at least partially eclipse that. Plus the Saturnines would disapprove of the war and place what political pressure they can to end it. On the other hand, by the time they're in a position to do this, the war would be mostly ended anyway.What makes you think the US will just randomly put its priorities on hold that way? Vietnam had more to do with national pride than with anything else. Nixon MAY try to de-escalate the war before it causes further frying of the budget, but it'll be a gradual thing.
[Also note that the importance of Vietnam was, not surprisingly, exaggerated in the minds of American policymakers in the late '60s and early '70s. It wasn't just worthless jungle to them]
That being said, it'll probably won't be until at least the late seventies before even the most modest Orion ships begin launching. Missile satellites will be up before that. In the meantime, however, space shuttles will arrive sooner, even if only because the Saturnines need us to have them (more on this below).
Far more likely that we will see mass serial production of Saturn hardware. In many ways, for pure ability to chuck cargo into orbit, the Shuttle is inferior to a Saturn V, it costs more to make repeated Shuttle launches ferrying the goods into space. The advantage of the Space Shuttle was that it had a crew and life support system on hand so that it could do things like service satellites or assemble space station modules in orbit.
Note that this is true in general. If you have a situation where an emergency demands that you MUST do as much as you can, as fast as you can... you mobilize, in the military sense of the word. When you mobilize, it is almost always more cost-effective and practical to do it with slight variations on the equipment you already have than to develop entirely new equipment. Because R&D is expensive, risky, and in many cases you can't force the learning curve no matter how much money you throw at it.
Good points. And while "losing out" may be a real danger, it depends on whether the Saturnines choose to set themselves as competitors with the Earthlings. The fact that they’re giving us tech by definition means we’re closing the gap. But that’s not exactly a bad thing for the Saturnines. And assuming the Cold War ends peacefully, the Saturnines' arrival could be the best thing to ever happen to us.Elheru Aran wrote: Essentially what it boils down to is that the space-elves are between a rock and a hard place, and the humans aren't THAT far below them in terms of technological parity. The humans also have nothing to lose except the possibility of acquiring some advancements in technology; the elves are screwed in the long run. It's really kind of a reversal of the usual ISOT scenario, which you could play with if you went writing upon this background-- a higher-tech race losing out to a lower-tech one.
Since Utu/Earth was only a few weeks away, the Saturn colonies had little need for shipyards or advanced industry. They have only modest manufacturing capabilities. They can mine and smelt. They have a reasonable supply of spare parts and can repair and perform the usual maintenance on their ships and worker-drones. They did have the extensive orbital factories that built the Muon Collider Ring . . . but these were orbiting Zisustra/Tethys and for the most part were destroyed by flying chucks of ice. They may be able to salvage something useful from the debris, however.
As for food, they have enough hydroponic farms to keep their people fed, but only just. The elves better like protein bars and algae, because once the goods from Utu run out that's what's left on the menu. Advanced medicine can be fairly easily synthesized, and while not all of their equipment is readily replaceable, it's not something they have to worry about for the near-term.
The first decade or so will be hardest, and a catastrophe could doom them, but after that they should have build up their industry enough to make small spacecraft...
No semiconductor fabricators, but there's trillions of dollars worth of all sorts of components and high-industry materials floating in the debris field that was once Tethys. They can scavenge from that for a long while.HOW?
This isn't just a question of being able to dig minerals out of the ground (or sky as the case may be). There are a lot of components to modern technology which are very specialized and which a frontier community has literally zero need for. Mining and smelting aren't even close to all that's required; do they have their own semiconductor fabricators, or whatever high-tech equivalent they use to make computer hardware? Do they have engineers, in the sense of hardware design, who know enough to design their own equipment? Can they somehow do all this before existing equipment starts to break down?
There would be a steep learning curve, but it's not like they're in immediate danger of everything breaking down. Even if Saturn had ISOT'd into interstellar space, they could keep the lights on for a decade or so, even if by the end thing's would have been held together by bubblegum and duct tape.
There'll be time, and they'll know what they need from the Earthlings.
There's two qualities needed: specialized skill sets and a labor pool. The Saturnines' computers have all the data they need, and though none of their scientists are specialized for this, they can learn.Remember, this isn't just a case of calmly 'ascending the tech tree.' It's about whether there are physically enough humans (or humanoids, whatever) present to learn and master all the required specialties, of which there are many, before the lack of those specialties causes total collapse.
I have heard people doubt that even Steam Age technological infrastructure could be sustained indefinitely on a population base of 20-25 thousand, let alone futuristic super-Space Age infrastructure.
The labor pool is Earth, and the challenge is getting the stuff made on Earth shipped into orbit and sent on its way to Saturn.
It's doable, and the more it's done, the easier it'll be--and the less the Saturnines will actually need as they develop their industry.
Aid NASA (and the Soviets! Best not play favorites) in designing a cheap, reusable shuttle with off-the-shelf technology. Given that the elves have been at this for a few more centuries than us, they can presumably come up with something better than our space shuttle.
But if you know what steps to take to get to those advances, you can "speed run" the tech tree. As long as Earth-based governments and corporations agree to fund the Saturnine's 'research,' then it's just a matter of time. And while nano-constructed mono-weave fiber may be a few decades away, they can still aim towards less advanced materials. Which means the Saturnines will have to make do with inferior 'good enough' tech for a while.The material science to replicate this may not be easily available. One of the reasons the shuttle was what it was is that that was the best that could be built at the time- a titanium-shielded, slimmer-winged version might have performed incrementally better but it'd still be basically the Space Shuttle, with a cost to LEO measured in thousands of dollars per pound.
Advances in material science directly correlate to advances in space launch capability; we're only now beginning to get close to designing an SSTO-type spaceplane, and that's largely thanks to drastic advances in our ability to make such a spacecraft light.
Not if they contract out the work to the Earthlings. And between being having both generally competent scientists and access to a vast computer library, the Saturnines can get by. Remember, they're also immortal. Some of them are over two hundred years old.If the space-elves have enough material scientists and chemical engineers to set up their own steel mills (or, more to the point, foundries for making high-end composite materials) that changes a bit... but to a large extent they'd still be the ones doing the work of building the things.
They may know the broad outlines of the theory, but do they have enough chemical engineers and material scientists to oversee and manage quality control on such a facility?[/quote]In 1970, the Saturnine Commonwealth buys property in Brazil along the equator. Using funds from medical, industrial and computer patents, they pay human laborers to start construction for the base of a space elevator. This is a huge undertaking, and at the earliest won't be done until the early 21st century. The high-tensile nanofibers for the cable can only be created (or "grown") in a zero-g environment (and as of 1970, the elves aren't even close to being able to do this--but they're working on it!), but once this is completed, material trade with earth will be much, much easier.
Good point. This sort of project would qualify as "mega-engineering," and realistically won't be feasible until the Saturnines have 1) manufactured the vast amounts of high-end specialized materials (and no "good enough" stop gaps) 2) schooled themselves in the "how" part, 3) trained the Earthlings in the same. Call it mid-21st century, at the earliest.
Alternate orbital delivery means such as mass drivers or laser launching may be a more sensible route.
madd0ct0r wrote:question.
Could the elves build a 2nd installation on out our Saturn and blip that out of this solar system?
phred wrote:I doubt it. It sounds like most of the people with the expertise were killed in the experiment.
Yeah, none of the remaining Saturnines know much of theoretical physics behind the experiment. And building a second, 1000km wide collider would be a feat in itself.
But if Universal Sandbox is to be believed, however, colliding Saturns won’t be a thing for a long, long time.
This will be a major fear among the Saturnines. It’d be a fine line to walk, and even if they don’t play favorites, one side may think they are, which would be just as bad. It doesn’t help that to the US the Saturnines are perceived as socialist, atheistic (or, in a few cases, “pagan”) counter-culture sympathizers—who are also sexual deviants[5]. To the Soviet Union the Saturnines fair somewhat better: decadent degenerates--yet socialistic. [6]madd0ct0r wrote:thinking about Pax Timmus.
There was a fair few sci-fi stories from that era that considered the result of the invention of something like a missile sheild - something that averted MAD for one side. The logical response was for the other side to launch an all-out preemptive attack.
Same here, if either side speculated the elves would give technological edge to the other, then doing unto others first makes sense.
If that knife-edge policy ridge is successfully traversed, and the elves claim they will shoot down any ICBM's that are launched, then the nuclear deterrent is gone.
War in Europe, proxy wars to end all proxy wars.
But really, this depends on how the Saturnines choose to portray themselves. If they’re wise, they’ll try to be as least offensive as possible to both sides. And, perhaps in an attempt to “scare us straight,” release footage of the aftermath of their own nuclear war.
[5] Imagine how people in the late-sixties would see citizens of Iain Banks' Culture.'
[6] Of course, now that the Saturnines are cut off from their near-post-scarcity civilization, they may find themselves growing progressively capitalistic.