Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

[Terralthra]

I would actually like to see some serious energy combat in the Honorverse again some day, that isn't just a summary execution. Sort of a "last ride of the pre-MDM ships," if you ask me. The obvious place for it is in a grav wave, which come to think of it is probably the main reason Honorverse ships still mount chase energy weapons- in a grav wave, missiles get ripped apart and killed. And you really can NOT rule out a battle there, because grav waves are the best place ever for someone to ambush you.

I just love the idea of a squadron of Sollie SDs jumping a Manticoran/Havenite task force in a grav wave and going "WHERE IS YOUR MISSILEGOD NOW!?" and predictably mauling the shit out of them. It'd help make a good counterpoint to the overall trend of "victory through superior technology:" Victory through superior use of the terrain!

It'd also be a good way to introduce, say, the Sollie version of Tom Theisman.

Personally, I think it would be interesting if the Sollies had been working on an alternative solution to the entire "decisive battles are hard to force" issue, where you can plink at people with missiles but its hard to get them into range for a genuinely destructive energy battle. Namely, instead of focusing on missiles, they took what they knew could kill ships - energy weapons - and found some way to use those. Suddenly war with the Manties is on the horizon and they rush to actually deploy whatever their numerous, should-be-bigger-than-Manticore's-entire-population R&D firms have up their sleeves. Picture this: the Manties come into a system, start their usual Mantie Missile Massacre, while the foolish Sollies plunge toward them in what looks like a pointless suicide run. Suddenly, even as them missiles do their thing and take out Sollie ships left and right, Mantie ships start exploding as well. It doesn't matter whether they're shooting god's own graser, a genuine wedge-killing grav lance, or a wave motion cannon, so long as it is a genuine challenge to missile superiority. Then we could finally have some interesting battles again as both sides try to come up with tactics to use their superweapons without in being a MAD situation.

Sadly, the Solarian Navy (both of them) are firmly stuck in the mindset that their quantitative superiority will allow them to steamroll anyone by simply having a fleet ten (a hundred) times as big as any possible opponent, pinning them against their planet and simply walking into energy range. Literally, the Solarians have 2000+ SDs in commission in their Battle Fleet, which is as many as the main combatants in the Manticore/Haven war had at any one point...combined. That's not counting the 8,000+ SDs in the reserve, and the simply enormous number of battlecruisers and smaller ships in the frontier fleet. With that kind of numerical superiority, combined with the arrogance of assuming that any non-Solarian weapons technology could never hold a candle to the League's might, their research and development has been stagnant since the development of the laser head.

Their most recent "fleet upgrades" before the New Tuscany incident was to redesign their bridge console layout to look more action-adventure-esque on documentary/propaganda. Once they get the barest of hints in first-person reports from Frontier Fleet getting their ass handed to them, they come up with more or less useless (against Ghost Rider) decoys called HALO and a system for firing canisters of counter-missiles from the broadsides, replacing missile tubes with the canister-firing mechanism (making their broadside missile launches even less powerful) called AEGIS.

The Mesans, on the other hand, have had every reason to try to develop new weapons tech. They haven't come up with anything like what you mean in the way of super-energy weapons, but the Cataphract is their version of a MDM, which basically just shoves a counter-missile drive on the warhead of a standard anti-ship missile, giving it a shorter-legged, but high-powered second boost phase. On the other hand, they can't be fired out of any of the shipboard missile tubes, so... yeah. They also have the first missile (well, torpedo) mounted grasers. They're pretty damn powerful, but there's no real reason they're immensely better than laser heads, really, and now that the RMN knows about them, it's likely BuWeaps will be playing with their own version of the design. The only answer the MAN have been able to come up with to the RMN, RHN, GSN and IAN missile swarms (RMN/GSN's being, with Apollo, even more overpowered than the RHN/IAN, and all four blow anything else out of space with ease) has been stealth drive technology that's nearly undetectable to standard ship sensor arrays, and a hyper drive that's superior to anyone else's in space, for strategic flexibility.

I think it's worth pointing out that even with the missile swarm combat of the modern wall of battle, energy weapons still have their place in space combat. Not every battle is two walls facing off, after all. The Battle of Monica, for example.

Also, no one has particularly pointed this out, since most of the battles so far have been decided tactically by concentration of forces or strategically by new weapons technology, but both the RMN/GSN and the RHN (at least prior to Apollo) had developed fairly successful doctrines for missile defense against even the swarm a podnaught wall can lay down. If equal forces of podnaughts with their screen were to come up against one another (something that never actually happened) with both missile defense doctrines in place, it's likely that the battle would result in orders of magnitude more missiles being expended, but just as tactically a stalemate as before the podnaught become a reality. In the end, a fleet which was losing by even a hair could turn on up their wedges and try to disengage to prevent attritional losses, and the only way to finish off an opponent is to pin them to a strategic target and force them to energy range.

This is kinda pointed out in the Battle of Solon, where Harrington's 2 SD(P)s, 6 CLACs, and a half-squadron of BCs and miscellaneous screen were ambushed at range by 18 SD(Ps), 6 CLACs, plus 3 standard SDs with a titanic number of system defense missile pods. Despite being outnumbered in terms of ships of the wall significantly, and tactically boxed in and forced to action against both a 3:1 disadvantage in SD(P)s and a truly stupendous missile salvo from the system defenses, 8th fleet suffered significant losses, but got out with half of what it went in with. Without vectors guaranteeing engagement of an even bigger tonnage ratio against, or energy range of the force that did engage, the missile swarm combat went right back to what it was before the podnaught and the missile defense doctrine responding to it.

The RMN had another weapons technology to answer this, but if everyone had Apollo (or similar), missile combat would become instantly deadly again, but force another evolution in missile defense doctrine. Once it does, we're right back to long-range stalemates unless you can force an opponent to action strategically and wipe them out at close range.

[Ahriman238]

Also, no one has particularly pointed this out, since most of the battles so far have been decided tactically by concentration of forces or strategically by new weapons technology, but both the RMN/GSN and the RHN (at least prior to Apollo) had developed fairly successful doctrines for missile defense against even the swarm a podnaught wall can lay down. If equal forces of podnaughts with their screen were to come up against one another (something that never actually happened) with both missile defense doctrines in place, it's likely that the battle would result in orders of magnitude more missiles being expended, but just as tactically a stalemate as before the podnaught become a reality. In the end, a fleet which was losing by even a hair could turn on up their wedges and try to disengage to prevent attritional losses, and the only way to finish off an opponent is to pin them to a strategic target and force them to energy range.

We see by at least the third book (and I think the second, but I'm going through slowly) that Honorverse ships network their missile defense. The first part of this is so counter-missiles and even point defense lasers aren't wasted on duplicate targets, but it's synching up their EW that really makes a squadron missile defense more than the sum of it's parts.

And one of the biggest innovations there is, funnily enough, the LACs. Even the original "super-LACs" the Shrikes carried, what 75 counter-missiles and a handful of laser clusters? With Ferrets having a lot more counter-missiles and EW capability. Individually it's just a little extra survivability for the LACs, but bring two carriers with a hundred each and suddenly you find yourself with an extra 15,000 counter-missiles, and more importantly a lot more launchers to get them out quickly. Extra EW stations and emitters are nice, but I honestly have no idea how much of a difference they make.

I am convinced, however, that the main reason later fleets can survive MDM missile spam is that they have hundreds of LACs in a defensive role. In fact, that's the only thing I can recall LACs doing in Mission/War of Honor or At All Costs, protecting the fleets from vast missile swarms.

[Terralthra]

Also, no one has particularly pointed this out, since most of the battles so far have been decided tactically by concentration of forces or strategically by new weapons technology, but both the RMN/GSN and the RHN (at least prior to Apollo) had developed fairly successful doctrines for missile defense against even the swarm a podnaught wall can lay down. If equal forces of podnaughts with their screen were to come up against one another (something that never actually happened) with both missile defense doctrines in place, it's likely that the battle would result in orders of magnitude more missiles being expended, but just as tactically a stalemate as before the podnaught become a reality. In the end, a fleet which was losing by even a hair could turn on up their wedges and try to disengage to prevent attritional losses, and the only way to finish off an opponent is to pin them to a strategic target and force them to energy range.

We see by at least the third book (and I think the second, but I'm going through slowly) that Honorverse ships network their missile defense. The first part of this is so counter-missiles and even point defense lasers aren't wasted on duplicate targets, but it's synching up their EW that really makes a squadron missile defense more than the sum of it's parts.

And one of the biggest innovations there is, funnily enough, the LACs. Even the original "super-LACs" the Shrikes carried, what 75 counter-missiles and a handful of laser clusters? With Ferrets having a lot more counter-missiles and EW capability. Individually it's just a little extra survivability for the LACs, but bring two carriers with a hundred each and suddenly you find yourself with an extra 15,000 counter-missiles, and more importantly a lot more launchers to get them out quickly. Extra EW stations and emitters are nice, but I honestly have no idea how much of a difference they make.

I am convinced, however, that the main reason later fleets can survive MDM missile spam is that they have hundreds of LACs in a defensive role. In fact, that's the only thing I can recall LACs doing in Mission/War of Honor or At All Costs, protecting the fleets from vast missile swarms.

All true. Missile defense networking is mentioned in The Honor of the Queen, but much more importantly in Short, Victorious War, as the synergized missile defenses of BatCruRon 5 were far better than the PRN was expecting.

The Ferrets and Shrikes were never really used to thicken up missile defense swarms by design. It was the Katana-class space superiority LACs designed by Grayson that shone in that role. Their tubes were loaded with a missile based on a countermissile body, with a smallish warhead suitable to taking on other LACs, but the overpowered drive of the CM was left intact, and all of their "Viper" anti-LAC missiles could be fired off in shoals by LAC groups and used as counter-missiles as well. Keyhole I/II made this even better, since the platforms allowed the LAC groups to fire off massive amounts of counter-missiles which were then handed off to the squadron defense network via Keyhole.

Keyhole was also a large portion of the improving Manticoran missile defense doctrine. Somewhat typically, the RMN approach to countering the podnaught missile swarm relied on finesse and technology advantage, while the PRN/RHN approach devised by Shannon Foraker was a more brute-force approach relying on numbers and power to cope with a technology disadvantage.

[Mr Bean]

The thing LAC's bring to the table funny enough is our friend surface area. Laser clusters and counter missile launchers all take up deckspace. And need "portholes" in the sidewall to fire through. Worse radar's and tracking need extra surface area of their own so they don't interfere with other defensive measures. Give it fifty years and your going to see transforming honoverse ships just so they can get more surface area to mount more defenses.

*OAN Forakers LAC's had an even better missile defense design than the Manties only the crudness of the designs preventing them from turning out superior performance. From Day 1 Foraker saw the potential of using LAC's as in essence super drones with their own EW, own missile defense and own wedges.

[Ahriman238]

And again, I like that last part. I love how Manticore and Haven sort of feed off of each other, and learn from each other. For every clever tactic they see, a counter is devised and they keep that trick in the back of their minds in case a time comes when they can do it. For technology, Manticore has a lot more skill, creativity, a large R&D budget and advanced minaturization that opens up a lot of possibilities, but once Haven sees and figures out a trick, they'll come up with a brute force way to duplicate the feat. And if you reverse it and Haven comes up with something extraordinarily clever, well, Admiral Hemphill will see your Moriaty and raise you an Apollo. All done on a frantic R&D cycle that makes WWII seem leisurely.

It helps make the conflict feel so much more vast and real.

[Terralthra]

And again, I like that last part. I love how Manticore and Haven sort of feed off of each other, and learn from each other. For every clever tactic they see, a counter is devised and they keep that trick in the back of their minds in case a time comes when they can do it. For technology, Manticore has a lot more skill, creativity, a large R&D budget and advanced minaturization that opens up a lot of possibilities, but once Haven sees and figures out a trick, they'll come up with a brute force way to duplicate the feat. And if you reverse it and Haven comes up with something extraordinarily clever, well, Admiral Hemphill will see your Moriaty and raise you an Apollo. All done on a frantic R&D cycle that makes WWII seem leisurely.

It helps make the conflict feel so much more vast and real.

Technically, Moriarty and Apollo were in development at the same time. It was clear as far back as Buttercup that the podnaught MDM swarm had horrible accuracy downrange. Hemphill took Moriarty and developed Mycroft, which was essentially the same device, but beefed up with a massive amount of point-defense (to prevent something like Mistletoe taking Mycroft out like Moriarty was taken out). Oh, and FTL telemetry instead of lightspeed.

[Simon_Jester]

I personally wonder what Foraker has been working on in response to the problem of effective fire control at light-minute ranges. My money is on teaching the missiles to network with each other, not necessarily with the mothership. Possibly with dedicated 'control missiles' that lack the gravitic comm but carry several tons of computer in place of the warhead, just to at least take the fine edge off the enemy's ability to screw up the missile guidance systems. Sort of the opposite of the Manticoran dedicated jammer missiles.

Or with a thousand-ton "missile" that is basically nothing but an FTL comm transceiver and has to be fired out of its own single-shot pod, scrambling to control the fifty or so other missiles in an SD(P) salvo.

By the same token, Moriarty II is probably a massively armored platform damn near the size of a capital ship, wrapped around the same five hundred thousand ton core- survivable against a one-off ambush weapon.

[Terralthra]

I personally wonder what Foraker has been working on in response to the problem of effective fire control at light-minute ranges. My money is on teaching the missiles to network with each other, not necessarily with the mothership. Possibly with dedicated 'control missiles' that lack the gravitic comm but carry several tons of computer in place of the warhead, just to at least take the fine edge off the enemy's ability to screw up the missile guidance systems. Sort of the opposite of the Manticoran dedicated jammer missiles.

Or with a thousand-ton "missile" that is basically nothing but an FTL comm transceiver and has to be fired out of its own single-shot pod, scrambling to control the fifty or so other missiles in an SD(P) salvo.

By the same token, Moriarty II is probably a massively armored platform damn near the size of a capital ship, wrapped around the same five hundred thousand ton core- survivable against a one-off ambush weapon.

In At All Costs, in which Moriarty is introduced, it's described as being the size of a heavy cruiser, and that's just the telemetry control module. After Lovat, when Harrington uses Mistletoe to deep-six the Moriarty platforms, Theisman admits to Pritchart that Foraker intended all along that Moriarty was supposed to be built into a purpose-built SD, or made part of a larger, more defensible installation. She reasoned (correctly) that the stealth on the bare platform was nice, but wouldn't help if the OpFor knew what they were looking for. Theisman overruled her, arguing that getting Moriarty in place as quickly as possible was more important. In that sense, the Moriarty 2 you describe is exactly what Foraker wanted Moriarty 1.0 to be, and what actually ended up deployed was more like Moriarty 0.5.

In one sense, he was right, as Moriarty was the only thing that kept Solon as one-sided as it was: Giscard basically shot every missile he had in six SD(P)s just to get a piece of one of the two SD(P)s Harrington had; it didn't actually get destroyed until the Moriarty-controlled ultra-salvo of the system defense pods. In another, strategic sense, Foraker was right: a SD with Moriarty built-in would've been far more survivable, and perhaps kept Lovat from being the complete steamroll it ended up being. Probably not, since the Mistletoe drones also wiped out a large portion of the system defense pods, and Yanakov's Apollo-equipped task force would've blown the shit out of Giscard's three task forces no matter what.

As for Foraker's solution to the extreme downrange telemetry problem of MDMs, networking missiles to each other doesn't seem like it'd be a net gain. The missiles themselves are pretty dumb, in the grand scheme of things, and parallelizing processing doesn't help too much when each system is already outmatched. The miniaturized FTL link is more or less what Apollo is, but all along, it's clear that the PRN's FTL comm ability (and the power necessary to run it, more importantly) is nowhere near as miniaturized as the RMN's is. In the War of Honor, the absolute smallest platform the PRN can shove an FTL comm into is one of their (outsized, comparatively) LACs, and they have to strip out all the weaponry in order to make room for it (and have power for it). Their recon drones themselves are still light-speed limited, and have an LAC along to ride herd and transmit data back to the main fleet. The RMN's miniaturized fusion plants are a key part of their overall weapons technology advantage: their stealthed recon drones, Ghost Rider, Keyhole I/II, and Apollo all rely on it. If the PRN could match it, they would have used it already in other ways before Apollo came along.

In the grand scheme of things, I really dig that the advantages and disadvantages aren't really based on different tech or magically better everything, but simply that the RMN has developed a better power plant. All the gadgets in the world don't matter if you can't power them, and the strategic, technological, and tactical advantages are based solely on the RMN's ability to make a smaller fusion plant to power them all.

[Simon_Jester]

One thing we're likely to see very soon is the first generation of Havenite hardware based on either

Looking at the most recent novels, as of Books Thirteen and Fourteen, Bolthole is the only really major production facility left to the "Grand Alliance" which is now opposing the Solarian League. If the Manties aren't willing to share their information on miniaturized fusion bottles, that facility will never reach its potential- and the Alliance will ultimately be stuck fighting with weapons built by Haven... weapons that the Solarians could probably duplicate if they put their minds to it.

[Terralthra]

Aye. They mention there are some problems with the techbase at Bolthole, that may make the miniaturized fusion plants and FTL hard to produce there, but Beowulf can pick up the slack of the miniature work with components to put into Bolthole-built SDs built to RMN standards. Also, Bolthole is hardly the only major production facility left in the Republic of Haven, it's just the most advanced and productive one. 8th Fleet under Harrington trashed the infrastructure of 4 or 5 systems in Cutworm I/II and Sanskrit, but Barnett, e.g. is still more or less intact, and had quite a bit of production capacity. White Haven splashed the PRN weapons platforms, but there was no mention of destroying the system infrastructure. Solon, as well, was a big enough target to be worth attacking, but the attack was driven off without any infrastructural damage.

[Simon_Jester]

Well, to be more clear, Bolthole is the primary shipyard of Haven, the one responsible for their mass production of capital ships. This was a deliberate choice on their part to NOT build up their modern ship construction infrastructure elsewhere, because they wanted a location where they could build and work up huge masses of SD(P)s and CLACs in secret where no one would have any idea they were doing it. Where they could build and test-fire MDMs and be sure Manticore wouldn't notice. And so on.

This would have been nearly impossible had they build the ships in the Haven system or any of its immediate neighbors.

Now, they could surely manufacture the fusion plants somewhere else and install them into weapons at Bolthole, or build (or already have) production lines for things like missiles that can be modified to work with imported fusion bottles. But the point is, Manticore isn't going to be able to keep the fusion bottle technology secret from Haven now, unless it wants to be pretty sure of losing the war. By themselves they just don't have the muscle to survive alone.

The corollary to this, of course, is that the Manticorans have to really, really hope that Haven will bury the hatchet.

[Terralthra]

Oh, my main point was just that Bolthole was the primary modern capital shipyard during the interbellum. They had other capital shipyards, that weren't being used, for both secrecy and because they weren't up to the modern shipyard technology standard. However, the PRN CLACs and SD(P)s were revealed in mid-1920 P.D., and the Grand Alliance standing off the SLN happens in 1922 P.D. It would be entirely in Haven's interest to get more of their other shipyards up to a modern technology standard and running, if at all possible.

And yes, I fully agree that it's up to both the RMN and PRN (and IAN/GSN) to get the hell over the prior 20 years of war.

[Simon_Jester]

I suspect the Havenites (who have apparently been building the place up since the days of the late Legislaturalists) have found that expanding the yard capacity at Bolthole is more cost-effective than creating entirely new yards, or updating yards that were last used under the Pierre government. Bolthole is where they have the educated workforce that understands the systems, and the construction facilities to create new infrastructure quickly.

In other words, they're likely to fall prey to the same high degree of centralization that bit Manticore on the ass first at Grendelsbane, then later with the loss of their big space stations.

Granted, the Pritchart government is smart enough to consciously resist this tendency a bit, especially with the example of what happened to Manticore- the mere fact that Bolthole's location is a secret is not enough.

[Phantasee]

Because of you guys I had to dig up my old EPUBs to finish the series. It seems there have been a few additions since the last time I touched the series, and I hadn't quite finished it even then! Rereading Echoes, I think I stopped reading last time somewhere in Ashes or War of Honor. I only have EPUBs up to At All Costs, though.

[CaptainChewbacca]

For Grand Alliance shipyards, isn't Grayson supposed to have some of the largest orbital infrastructure in the galaxy outside of Manticore?

I really hope we see a combined Haven-RMN-Andermani armada at some point, that would be terrifying.

[Mr Bean]

For Grand Alliance shipyards, isn't Grayson supposed to have some of the largest orbital infrastructure in the galaxy outside of Manticore?

They have the largest single orbital infrastructure for a single system outside Manticore (Or had pre- Oyster Bay) mostly because their planet was a giant toxic waste dump. The reason for the pretty blue oceans is just a hint of... lethal dose of natural arsenic. So once they got space capacity back they moved a much production back into space as possible. With all the loans and investments from first Manticore and then the various Manticore trading companies and business interest they shot way up.

Funny enough I'm in the middle of re-reading Ashes and it was pointed out that the reason they have the manpower for this is simple. The old Grayson pre- Firs Yelsen needed five spacers to do the same job it took one Manticore spacer to do. When modern methods was introduced all five spacers for every one spacer were kept in the same business just all retrained time permitting on the new methods. It's mentioned elsewhere in the chapter that Grayson has six hundred years more history than Manticore and it shows in population which is 3 billion on one planet to the Manticore systems 3.2 billion for all three planets.

[Batman]

While nothing short of them anihalating the Mesan Alliance would please me more I'm afraid at least short term, they don't have the construction capability for it. Bolthole remains untouched (for now), but both Manticore and Grayson lost virtually all of their grade A shipbuilding capacity, and something tells me the Andermani Empire is going to be...cautious, at best, about offensive operations against the League.
The Manticorans have the tech advantage and are likely to retain it for several years (I'm inclined to say a decade at least) but the Solarians have the numbers advantage so bad it is no longer funny. If they lose 25 SDs for every SD(P) the Alliance loses, they still come out ahead (Note:Have not read Shadow of Fredoom yet).

[Terralthra]

For Grand Alliance shipyards, isn't Grayson supposed to have some of the largest orbital infrastructure in the galaxy outside of Manticore?

I really hope we see a combined Haven-RMN-Andermani armada at some point, that would be terrifying.

They did, and still do, in a number of ways, but most of their capital shipyard capacity was in the Blackbird Yard, and that got shot to shit as part of Oyster Bay, same as Hephaestus, Vulcan, and Weyland. Personnel casualties at Blackbird were also nearly 100%, same as Hephaestus and Vulcan. The core personnel to rebuild are going to be Grayson's orbital facilities (mostly civilian) and the research and fabrication techs from Weyland, who were coincidentally on Gryphon due to an evacuation drill at exactly the right time.

While nothing short of them anihalating the Mesan Alliance would please me more I'm afraid at least short term, they don't have the construction capability for it. Bolthole remains untouched (for now), but both Manticore and Grayson lost virtually all of their grade A shipbuilding capacity, and something tells me the Andermani Empire is going to be...cautious, at best, about offensive operations against the League.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. While the majority of the Mesan operations were targeted at Manticore and the Republic of Haven, Mesa did try to assassinate the Andermani Emperor's younger brother, Prince Huang, and it's made very clear by everyone involved that the Andermani do not fuck around with dynastic threats. If Gustav XI becomes convinced that Mesa was behind Hofschulte's assassination attempt, it could be very very bad news for Mesa.

The more I read the off-shoot books, the more I'm impressed with the Mesan Alignment's plans, to be honest. In the grand scheme of things, it never mattered how successful they were at getting the SKM/SEM and the PRN/RN to destroy each other, that was all the tinderbox to get the Solarian League involved, sooner or later, and once they were involved, the Mesan Alignment's plan to splinter the Sollies could've worked, no matter what exactly triggered it. That the RMN and RHN got so categorically overpowered compared to the SLN made it easier to push the conflict ahead, and having the two biggest enforcers of the Cherwell Convention distracted by war was certainly nice, but it was never necessary for Prometheus.

[Vehrec]

So, question! How many counter-missile pods would a pod-ship carry? 20% of it's load? Or does nobody do that?

On the front of the alliance vs the universe, well, I think things are about to get Interesting for everyone if the Solarian League staggers. Signs of weakness will lead inevitably to a breakdown in peace and prosperity along the borders of civilization as every other neo-barb decides that Manticore has the right idea of it, pirates multiply, crews and ships desert their posts, and even member states go their own way.

Of course, the League's politics are so backwards and inane that it won't be able to respond at all to the crisis, and it will inevitably break apart into hundreds of feuding worlds. It's designed to fail-you think the US congress is good at doing nothing? The League allowed a war to be fought practically within it's core worlds without sending a single officer to observe, gather intelligence, stage an incident so they could intervene or anything. It's like they're not allowed to have an agenda of their own-oh wait.

[Ahriman238]

1.) Nobody does that.

2.) The plan for the League has always been to Balkanize them, humiliate the Navy while making it clear that people don't have to kowtow to the League, then watch them splinter.

3.) Officially the League has no capacity for swift action. But the behind-the-scenes policy makers can and do get what they want, and very quickly while the official apparatus of govenment carries on debating a now moot point.

[Dominus Atheos]

Bolthole being the only major shipyard Haven has doesn't sound right to me. Remember, Bolthole was originally a StateSec shipyard, only building ships for StateSec. The PRH had to have other shipyards that built the regular fleet.

[Batman]

Exactly. The regular fleet. They indubitably were building traditional design ships up to and including SDs elsewhere, but the new ships, like podnoughts, carriers and the improved LACs were, at least for the interwar period, pretty much coming exclusively out of Bolthole. While Haven is no doubt considerably better set up to make use of the upgraded technology due to having more shipyards to use it on, upgrading shipyards takes time, and the only Havenite shipyard we know to be able to turn out podnoughts is Bolthole.
If we give them a decade to adjust-or Manticore, for that matter-they might be able to continue to give the League the finger.
They don't seem to have that decade.

[Dominus Atheos]

I can't imagine re-tooling the shipyards for the upgraded technology and new designs would take more then a year, and the Second Battle of Manitcore happened at least 3 years after Bolthole and the new tech were revealed.

[Terralthra]

I can't imagine re-tooling the shipyards for the upgraded technology and new designs would take more then a year, and the Second Battle of Manitcore happened at least 3 years after Bolthole and the new tech were revealed.

More like a little over two, according to the chronology of all the books combined. They went back to war in mid-1920 P.D., and the new tech was revealed one round of diplomatic back and forth before that. Second Manticore is in June 1922 P.D. So, a minimum of 2 years, but somewhat less than 3.

Edit - the chronology at Pearls of Weber clarifies this. The decision to end the ceasefire was made in November, 1919, P.D. Operation Thunderbolt was launched thereafter, with the various battles of Grendelsbane, et al., taking place in the early months of 1920 P.D., Sidemore being the last in February 1920 P.D. Thus, 2.5 years.

Bolthole being the only major shipyard Haven has doesn't sound right to me. Remember, Bolthole was originally a StateSec shipyard, only building ships for StateSec. The PRH had to have other shipyards that built the regular fleet.

Err? Bolthole was originally built in secret by Pierre and Saint-Just's government, but it's not the StateSec shipyard. At least, that's never said in the abooks, and it's contraindicated by non-novel evidence: A Weber infodump indicates that it was a R&D yard under the Committee as well. It wsa where the PRN developed their missile pods and Solarian tech transfers, as well as reserve shipbuilding capacity in a part of the then-PRH where Manticore was unlikely to find it, much less raid it.

In the same infodump, he makes clear that Bolthole is an entire system essentially dedicated to nothing but R&D and shipbuilding. No real large-scale industrial infrastructure exists for the system besides that which the PRH/RH invested in it. In that sense, it is unlike the SKM/SEM's orbital yards, which were both military and civilian infrastructure, save perhaps Weyland, which I recall the RMN kicked civvies off of in order to have some secrecy for some of their projects in the more remote (from the junction hub) Manticore-B system.

[CaptainChewbacca]

The collapse of the Solaran league is destined to happen, especially if we get a third battle of Manticore as gruesome as it appears (although I think the League is going to glass Beowulf and cause itself to implode). The problem with the Mesans and the Rennaissance factor is their plan is to create a power vacuum and be the only game in town, but they never banked on the SEM and PRH talking to each-other and declaring a ceasefire. Now the Grand Alliance is poised to become the preeminent power in the galaxy (whatever shape that may take) and the Mesans will have to break it apart or their plan won't work.