Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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Simon_Jester
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

Terralthra wrote:
VhenRa wrote:Uh. I believe Manty vessels in the 1500s (In A Call to Arms, which leads into the new prequel novels) have counter-missiles. Of course, If I am reading stats correctly, they are fired out of the same launchers the shipkillers are shot out of.
They might be counter-missiles, but they're not impeller-wedge counter-missiles, meaning they're just hilariously outclassed if they're fired at impeller drive attack missiles. In the 1500s, it might have been reaction-drive missiles vs reaction-drive CMs, in which case it's a fair fight, but not much more advanced than current technology in terms of what we can build. By the late 1600s, it was definitely impeller-drive missiles and reaction-drive CMs, which was..not a fun time to play missile defense.
This is true. We see this by looking at Grayson ships (which seem to be, technologically speaking, about 200-300 years behind the curve). They have recently developed impeller drive missiles (but did not have them in the previous Grayson-Masadan Wars), but have only chemical powered countermissiles.

Now, "chemical powered" can be quite respectable in theory; the most impressive example I can think of that actually neared or reached field deployment could make 100g acceleration for five seconds, with a terminal velocity of around 3.3 km/s. Higher if the atmosphere weren't getting in the way. This was on what is quite literally a countermissile

Honorverse explosives are much higher-performing, so accelerations might well be ten times higher, ten times longer burning, maybe even both though I doubt it. But even so, it's just not fast enough or far-reaching enough to have a meaningful chance of engaging an impeller-drive missile that comes in at thousands of kilometers per second.

Hm... FORCE SUBSTITUTION TIME. 1903 PD Grayson Space Navy in place of the RMN of A Call to Arms... from what little information I can find that would actually be a walkover in favor of the Graysons. :D
Terralthra wrote:It's not such a huge deal now, maybe, but the infodump on missile pods and grav drivers in SVW mentions that pods became obsolete due to advances in missile defense eighty years ago. SVW is in 1905 PD, meaning the aforementioned point defense improvements occur around 1825 or so - predating laser heads. Given that counter-missiles were invented in the 1700s PD, the advances they're talking about must be something like fast-cycle laser clusters.
Thing is, the terminal attack performance of a missile launched with grav drivers and a missile launched without them just isn't that large. Even without a laser head. There's nothing about the physical performance parameters of the incoming missile that changes that much. It just means that they can reach a few hundred thousand kilometers farther out, and come in about 5% faster.

Granted that this will be enough to make a small but statistically significant difference in ability to penetrate missile defenses. However, it'd only be noticeable in statistical terms.

But unless missile accelerations or burn times were drastically shorter in 1825 PD, that shouldn't have changed.

[Also note that while you DO get extra tracking time, you only get a second or two of that time out of the grav driver's velocity during the missile burn. Most of it comes from the time it takes for the missile to 'swim out' away from the launch platform... and a target as small as a missile isn't very trackable at those ranges. Plus tracking the missile before its engines fire does you very little good for purposes of predicting its final position when your missile defense fires at it.

I really do think that the grav driver would make more difference in terms of coordinating 'crisp' salvoes of missiles that launch out of their mothership's impeller wedge quickly and coordinate to take down their target precisely.
~1500 kps from the grav driver is what, 2% of the terminal velocity of modern missiles, sure, but what percentage it forms is not super-relevant. The only relevant thing is, is whatever percent difference it is enough that by the time the missiles enter the defensive CM/laser cluster envelope, the CM launcher or laser cluster gets another shot off? If the answer is "yes", then you're wasting your time. The difference could be 0.00001% and that would still be the case if the defensive measures get a second shot off.
Again, statistically speaking that really shouldn't happen except in freak circumstances. It's like, your countermissiles have an engagement envelope of a million kilometers or whatever, the enemy missiles come in at about fifty to a hundred thousand kilometers per second. They cross your engagement envelope in 10-20 seconds. What are the odds that a 0.2 second difference in that 'time to cross' is going to result in the enemy missile defense getting off two shots instead of one?
We see this philosophy at work with the SLN's Aegis system - since they're still stuck in that mentality of missiles being the picador's dart, not the matador's sword. "oh, they have more missiles? Psh, we'll just shove a couple more counter-missiles in canisters out of our missile tubes. That'll take care of the problem, and it's not like our missiles were seriously going to kill them anyway."
I kind of disagree. For one, Aegis would be a pretty effective counter to a large salvo of single-drive missiles from towed pods (i.e. the pods Technodyne is developing). In essence you use your countermissile pods to cancel out their missile pods, then proceed with the battle as normal.

For another, there is a damn good argument to be made for, say, doubling your ability to launch countermissiles at the expense of, say, 25% of your missile broadside. Especially if you're taking missiles seriously as a potentially decisive threat. It's when you don't take missiles seriously that you don't bother with something like Aegis, because you don't expect enemy missiles to cause real damage.
As for LACs - from my understanding, LACs went out of style for a number of reasons. Lack of grav drivers was a tiny reason, which is why even when they developed the miniature grav drivers, LACs didn't suddenly become economical. The number of ways pre-1908 LACs sucked would take a while to recount.
This is quite true. Come to think of it, not only do
Simon_Jester wrote:Maybe it has more to do with getting the missiles clear of the wedge quickly so that the launching platform can maneuver in safety? And/or ensuring that the missiles clear each other quickly so that given pod's salvo doesn't have to spend several seconds floating around in empty space waiting to be blown up by a random nuke before they get far enough apart to engage their wedges?
Valid enough, I suppose, but to me, the "is the gap big enough that we get another defensive shot off?" is the real determinant.
As noted above, this is very unlikely. Unless the enemy just happens to be able to fire one shot per 15 seconds instead of one shot per 15.2 seconds, it won't be an issue.

If this calculation really were at the top of everyone's mind, then everyone would be desperate to fire missiles from the longest possible range. Because at shorter ranges (for a given fixed acceleration) the missile's terminal velocity is greatly reduced. Close to half the distance before firing, and your missiles will be going at only about, oh... 70% as fast when they reach the enemy ship, which means that the defenders have about 40 to 50% more time to shoot at your missiles- not just one or two percent more.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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Okay I lied, another brief technical diversion. This time LACs, and mostly to illustrate the Katanas.


Shrike-class LAC

Mass: 21,250 tons
Dimesnions: 72x20x20 meters
Max Accel: 636 G
80% Accel: 509 G
Forward: 1 graser, 4 missile tubes, 4 counter missile tubes, 6 point defense
Aft: 4 counter missile tubes, 6 point defense

The original (well, the beta version, the original had no stern wall, an escape pinnace and no rear missile defenses) LAC. One batlecruiser graser with a 1.5 meter beam diameter. 4 missile tubes with five missiles each, rapid-fire revolver magazines. 70-odd counter missiles. A revolution in it's time. The only thing that bothers me is that everyone else has been upgraded compensators, so now their are cruisers with better accel than the LACs, once the fastest in space.


Ferret-class LAC

Mass: 20,750 tons
Dimesnions: 72x20x20 meters
Max Accel: 636 G
80% Accel: 509 G
Forward: 4 missile tubes, 4 counter missile tubes, 6 point defense
Aft: 4 counter missile tubes, 6 point defense

Screen to ensure survivability of the Shrikes, Ferrets are essentially Shrikes that trade in the graser for doubled missile and counter missile magazines, and significantly better ECM. Making them more defensive in nature. So far they're adapting better than Shrikes as commanders use LACs more and more for a missile-defense and counter-LAC role.


Katana-class LAC

Mass: 19,500 tons
Dimesnions: 71x20x20 meters
Max Accel: 640 G
80% Accel: 512 G
Forward: 5 counter/missile tubes, 3 point defense
Aft: 6 point defense

Developed in 1917, during the interbellum, this started life Grayson's interpretation of a Ferret, only their version had no anti-ship weaponry but focused on EW, missile defense and killing other LACs. Grayson always believed someone else would develop large LAC swarms and always figured LACs as primarily shipkillers would last only until the first opposing navy developed their own equivalent LACs. So they created a dogfighter, designed to butcher vast numbers of enemy LACs equipped with 5 rapid-fire off-bore launchers for their Mk IX "Viper" missile that can function as either a cunter missile or an LAC-killer. They gave it the two-stage buckler bow wall and built it smaller to make it ever so slightly faster and more maneuverable than other LACs.

You may also have noticed there are only 3 point defense clusters forward. It's okay though, those are a superdreadnought's clusters, with a great many emitters, rapid-cycling and as a bonus, each is powerful enough to break any enemy LACs that brave the range.

Manticore also had a space superiority LAC project in the works but it was canceled by, wait for it.... the Janacek Admiralty. Now Manticore is buying up Katanas in job lots from Grayson, and Eighth Fleet has mostly replaced their LAC screen with Katanas.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Mr Bean »

Have to say I'm surprised by Manticore numbers since we see Haven LAC's pulling 700g accelerations don't we?

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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

I don't think those numbers can be right. Ahriman, are you getting them from House of Steel?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Ahriman238 »

Mr Bean wrote:Have to say I'm surprised by Manticore numbers since we see Haven LAC's pulling 700g accelerations don't we?
And Manty heavy cruisers. That was their accel during Buttercup, but I seriously wonder if that hasn't improved.

Simon_Jester wrote:I don't think those numbers can be right. Ahriman, are you getting them from House of Steel?
Yes. I picked it up recently to get hard stats on the new BCs and higher.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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Battle of Manticore, Part I.
He turned from the visual display to regard the huge master plot, and allowed himself a feeling of satisfaction as he studied the icons of the new fortresses. A year ago, the Manticoran Wormhole Junction's permanent fortifications had been virtually nonexistent. In fact, they'd been so sparse he'd been forced to hang Home Fleet all the way out at the Junction to cover the critical central nexus of the Star Kingdom's economy against attack.

He hadn't liked that, but the Janacek Admiralty's failure to update the fortresses had left him no choice. And at least the Manticore System's astrography had let him get away with it for a while.
The Janacek Admiralty apparently halted work on the new fortresses, little more than heavily defended control nodes for thousands of missile pods.

Classic system-defense doctrine, developed over centuries of experience, taught that a covering fleet should be deployed in an interior position. Habitable planets inevitably lay inside any star's hyper limit, and habitable planets were generally what made star systems valuable. That being the case, the smart move was to position your own combat power where it could reach those habitable planets before any attacker coming in from outside the limit could do the same thing.

Unfortunately, one could argue that the Wormhole Junction was what truly made the Manticore System valuable. D'Orville didn't happen to like that argument, but he couldn't deny that it had a certain applicability. Without the Junction, the Star Kingdom would never have had the economic and industrial muscle to take on something the Republic of Haven's size. And it was certainly the Junction which made the Manticore System so attractive to potential aggressors like Haven in the first place.
Seems the hyper limit always exists outside the Goldilocks Band, and the Junction is naturally well outside the hyper limit. In fact, it's seven and eleven light-hours from the two stars of the system, respectively.

But theory, as Sebastian D'Orville had learned over the years, had a nasty habit of biting one on the backside at the most inopportune moment. That was why he'd never really been happy with his enforced deployment. And now that Sphinx would clear the RZ in less than four T-months, he was even less comfortable with hanging his fleet on the Junction. The planet had lost too much of the additional "depth" the zone had created for him, and even in a best-case scenario, his need to make two separate hyper translations from the Junction would have placed him well astern of his hypothetical attacker, since he couldn't make even the first of them until after the aggressor force arrived and started accelerating towards its targets.
At closest approach, Sphinx is less than an hour inside the hyper limit, meaning a defending fleet could theoretically micro-jump from the Junction to close enough to defend the planet. However, this happy circumstance only lasts a handful of months.

Which was why D'Orville was so relieved the new forts were finally operational. Much smaller than the old prewar fortifications which had been decommissioned to provide the manpower to crew new construction, they were actually more powerfully armed, thanks to the same increased automation and weapons developments which had gone into the Navy's new warships. And each of those forts was surrounded by literally hundreds of missile pods, with the fire control to handle stupendous salvos. It would take an attack in overwhelming force to break those defenses, which had freed D'Orville to move Home Fleet closer to a more traditional covering position, locating his command in Sphinx orbit.

His new station provided Sphinx with badly needed, close-in protection. And with the planet of Manticore still trailing its orbital position, and so still deeper into the zone and (as always) further inside the hyper-limit, he was actually better placed to cover Manticore than he would have been anywhere else. Any least-time course to Manticore would require the attacker to get past his position at Sphinx, first, and he could easily intercept the opposing fleet short of its objective.
The new Junction Forts, and for now Home Fleet is sitting on Sphinx since they can still intercept any hypothetical attacker short of Manticore itself from there.

The solution wasn't perfect, of course. For one thing, the move left Manticore-B and its inhabited planet of Gryphon more exposed than it had been when Home Fleet was stationed at the Junction, since D'Orville would now have to get clear of the zone before he could hyper out to the system's secondary component. But the extra danger wasn't very great, now that Sphinx was within eight light-minutes of the zone's boundary. And more vulnerable or not, Gryphon had the smallest population and industrial base of any of the Star Kingdom's original inhabited worlds. If something had to be exposed, cold logic said Gryphon was a better choice than the other two planets, and the Admiralty had compensated as best it could by assigning the buildup of Manticore-B's fixed defenses a higher priority than Manticore-A's. In fact, Manticore-B's forts and space station were already refitting with Keyhole II and would begin deploying the first of the system-defense Apollo pods within the next three weeks, on the theory that it would need them worse since it couldn't call as readily on Home Fleet's protection.

And once Manticore-B's defenses were fully up to speed, Sphinx would receive the next highest priority, despite the fact that the planet of Manticore had the largest population and the greatest economic and industrial value of any of the binary system's worls. Like Manticore-B, Sphinx was simply more exposed than Manticore.
The planet Manticore itself is going to be the last to get the systems defense Apollo pods, because the other two are just that much more exposed.

But today, Sebastian D'Orville and half of Home Fleet were back out at the Junction, waiting. Waiting not for an enemy attack, but to welcome back two of the Manticoran Navy's own.
Specifically Hexapuma and Warlock for the end of SoS. and I guess that display we saw was only half of Home Fleet.

If she'd had the choice, she would have loved to have been back in the Manticore System in about half an hour. Unfortunately, she didn't really have that choice. Vizeadmiral Lyou-yung Hasselberg, Graf von Kreuzberg, and the leading elements of his Task Force 16, IAN, had arrived at Trevor's Star less than a week earlier. Two of his three battle squadrons were at full strength, and the Imperial Andermani Navy, like the Republic of Haven's, still used eight-ship squadron organizations. His third battle squadron remained short one of its four divisions, but what had already arrived had added twenty-two SD(P)s—every one of them Keyhole II-capable—to Eighth Fleet's order of battle.

Unfortunately, none of those ships had ever functioned as part of Eighth Fleet before, and eleven of them had finished their post-refit working up exercises less than two weeks before they deployed forward to Trevor's Star. And, just to add a little more interest to the situation, Vizeadmiral Bin-hwei Morser, Graffin von Grau, Hasselberg's second-in-command, was not one of the Royal Manticoran Navy's greater admirers. In fact, she was a holdover from the same anti-Manticoran faction within the IAN which had produced Graf von Sternhafen, who'd done so much to help make Honor's last duty assignment . . . interesting.

The rest of Hasselberg's senior flag officers seemed much more comfortable with the notion of their Emperor's decision to ally himself with the Star Kingdom, and she suspected that Chien-lu Anderman had had more than a little to do with their selection for their present assignments. Morser obviously had patrons of her own, however, since she'd received command of the very first squadron of refitted Andermani SD(P)s. And, Honor admitted just a bit grudgingly, she also appeared to be very good at her job. It was just unfortunate that she found it difficult to conceal the fact that she would have preferred to be shooting at the rest of Honor's fleet, rather than accepting her orders.
The Andermani are here, or most of them. 22 Apollo-equipped podnoughts. But there is some friction a Vizeadmiral with a real stick up her rear regarding Manticore and other difficulties integrating the Andy units, so it's drill, drill, drill.

The bottom line, though, was that the Manticoran and Grayson navies were the explored galaxy's most experienced, battle—hardened fleets. Their margin of superiority over the revitalized navy of Thomas Theisman was far narrower than it once had been, but it remained the Alliance's most significant advantage. And the Andermani, although they were very, very good by any less Darwinian standard, simply weren't up to their allies' weight.

Yet, at least.
The Andermani haven't fought a desperate war for their survival recently, nor had the opportunity to purge an awful lot of senior officers who climbed the ladder based on connections and political reliability rather than skill like Manticore.

Each of those specks of light was a starship, most of them as massive and powerfully armed as Guerriere herself. Now that Fisher had arrived on schedule, the reinforced Second Fleet was complete, as was Admiral Chin's Fifth Fleet, and both were under Tourville's command. Three hundred and thirty-six SD(P)s, the flower of the reborn Republican Navy, and by any standards, the most powerful battle force ever assembled for a single operation by any known star nation. They lay all about him, floating in distant orbit around the star system's second gas giant, waiting for his orders, and he felt a shiver of apprehensive anticipation flow through him.
Tourvilles Second and Fifth fleets are ready to begin their long jump to Manticore.

Tourville terminated the connection and stood. He patted his skinsuit's cargo pocket automatically, checking to be certain his trademark cigars were where they were supposed to be. They'd become so much a part of his image that he probably could have demoralized his entire flag bridge crew by the simple expedient of giving up smoking.
The man jokes. but if he quit smoking he just might send the morale of his immediate subordinates down the crapper.

He ran one hand over the hair in question, and chuckled again, much more naturally . . . just as the music began to play.

One of Thomas Theisman's reforms had been to allow the captains of capital units the right to substitute more personalized selections for the stridency of the standard fleet alarms. Captain Houellebecq had a fondness for really old opera, much of it actually dating from pre-space Old Earth. Tourville had cherished private doubts when she decided to use some of it aboard Guerriere, but he had to admit she'd come up with a suitable selection for this particular signal. In fact, he'd thought it was an appropriate one even before she told him what it was called.

"Now here this! Now here this! All hands, man Battle Stations! Repeat, all hands man Battle Stations!" Captain Celestine Houellebecq's calm, crisp voice said through the ancient, surging strains of Wagner's Ride of the Valkyries.
Havenite captains, at least the ones on capital ships, can now use whatever sound clip they like as a GQ alarm, and I have to admit Ride of the Valkyries is probably a good way to start the largest space battle ever. Give your side a little shot of confidence before dropping from hyper.

In fact, as both he and Zucker knew perfectly well, the Mantie's system platforms had detected and pinpointed their hyper footprints the instant they arrived. There was no point trying to fool those stupendous arrays. With dimensions measured in thousands of kilometers on a side, they could pick up even the most gradual translation into normal-space at a range of literally light-weeks, much less the signatures of two battlecruiser squadrons only six light-hours from the primary.
Oliver Diamato is commanding two BC squadrons sent to scout the Junction and report any major reinforcements coming through it. Pretty much spamming recon drones every time the defenders get one wave. Manty early warning arrays around the homeworld.

She wasn't the only one thinking dark thoughts, she noticed, watching the huge astro plot's sidebars as the Junction forts rushed to battle stations. It would take a lot of SDs to deal with them, she told herself, but that didn't make her feel a great deal better. There were several hundred freighters, passenger liners, mail boats, and exploration vessels either already in transit through the Junction's various termini or else lined up in the transit queues awaiting their turns, and the thought of MDMs tearing around amidst all that defenseless civilian shipping made her physically sick to her stomach.

She flipped up a plastic shield and punched a large, red button on her console. A harsh, strident buzzer sounded, and every other sound on the command deck of HMSS DaGama, the Junction's central ACS platform ceased abruptly. Every eye turned towards her as the saw-edged audio alarm jerked her personnel's attention to her.

"It hasn't been declared yet, but we have damned sure got ourselves a Case Zulu, people," she announced in a flat, tense voice. "I'm declaring Condition Delta on my own authority. Clear the Junction—all traffic, wherever it is in the queue, not just the outbounds already on final. I want anything that might draw an MDM's attention way the hell away from here ASAP.
The Junction Forts scrambling to battle stations, the Junction traffic is getting cleared and the ACS is preparing for inbound reinforcements as they send a warning to Trevor's Star.

"Good," Grimm said quietly, and looked back at the plot. The first Ghost Rider platforms were already twenty-five thousand kilometers out, accelerating at just over five thousand gravities. She couldn't see them, though she knew they were there. But she could see the blossoming impeller signatures of Junction Defense Command's LACs. Over thirty-five hundred were already in space, and more were appearing with metronome precision as the LAC platforms launched.
5,000 Gs accel for Ghost Rider recon drones, and at least 3500 LACs deployed from or near the Junction FOrts.

"They're coming straight down our throats, Sir," Captain Maurice Ayrault, his chief of staff, replied flatly. "The only finesse I can see is their approach vector. It looks like they think they're going to take out Home Fleet and Sphinx first, then roll on over Manticore, but they're trying to leave themselves an out just in case, and their astrogation was first rate. They came in right on the intersection of the resonance zone and the hyper limit and split the angle almost exactly. It's not a least-time approach, but it means they can break back across the zone boundary if it gets too deep instead of being committed to the inner-system. At the moment, they're eight light-minutes out, closing at fifteen hundred KPS, and they're pouring on the accel. They must be running their compensators at at least ninety percent of full military power, because current acceleration is right on four-point-eight KPS-squared."
Inbound Havenite accel and vector.

D'Orville considered what Ayrault had said. Home Fleet was still rushing to Battle Stations, but at least it was standing policy to hold his ships' nodes permanently at standby readiness, despite the additional wear that put on the components. He'd be able to get underway in the next twelve to fifteen minutes. The question was what he did when he could.
Home Fleet always runs their impellers hot.

"Tracking makes it two hundred and forty superdreadnoughts, Sir. At this time, it looks like they're all pod-layers, but we're trying to get drones in closer to confirm that. They've also got what looks like sixteen CLACs and a screen of roughly ninety cruisers and lighter units, as well."

"Thank you, Madelyn."

D'Orville was pleased, in a distant sort of way, by how calm he sounded, but he understood why Gwynett's shoulders had stiffened. Home Fleet contained forty-two SD(P)s and forty-eight older superdreadnoughts. He was outnumbered by better than two and a half-to-one in capital ships, but the ratio was almost six-to-one in SD(P)s. He had twelve pod-laying battlecruisers, as well, but they'd be spit on a griddle against superdreadnoughts.
Forces for the opening.

Haven: 240 SD(P) 16 CLAC and 90 screen

Manticore: 42 SD(P) 48 SD, 16 CLAC, 12 BC(P) and an unknown number of smaller units. At least 36 cruisers and 33 destroyers.

Still, he told himself as firmly as possible, the situation wasn't quite as bad as the sheer numbers suggested. The new tractor-equipped "flat-pack" missile pods would allow each of his older superdreadnoughts to "tow" almost six hundred pods inside their wedges, glued to their hulls like high-tech limpets. That was a hundred and twenty percent of a Medusa-class' internal pod loadout, and the ships were already loading up with them. Unfortunately, they didn't have the fire control to manage salvos as dense as a Medusa could throw. Worse, they'd have to flush the majority of their pods early in order to clear the sensor and firing arcs of their point defense and its fire control arrays. So he was going to have to use them at the longest range, where their accuracy was going to be lowest.
Flatpack pods make every ship a podlayer, to an extent. But do nothing for fire-control links and leave you stuck with the basic "use it or lose it" nature of pods, even if the situation is generally a lot better.

The inner system defenses relied heavily on MDM pods, and they'd been deployed in massive numbers. Unfortunately, he thought, the numbers weren't massive enough. They'd been designed to stop any likely attack cold, but the defensive planners hadn't counted on an adversary who was prepared to throw over two hundred modern podnaughts, and all the anti-missile defenses that implied, straight into their teeth. They might still be able to beat off the attack, but not without letting the attackers into their own missile range of the hideously vulnerable dispersed shipyards in which the Royal Manticoran Navy's entire next-generation of superdreadnoughts was approaching completion. He couldn't let the Peeps close enough to do to the home system shipyards what had already happened to Grendelsbane's.

And that doesn't even count what could happen if they open fire on the inner system from that far out and a couple of their missiles run into Manticore or Sphinx at seventy or eighty percent of light-speed, he thought with a shudder.
MDM system-defense pods not thick enough to do the job in this case, and too close to the major shipyards which they are not letting a massive Haven fleet into MDM range of.

"So far, they've stayed away from anything which might look like a violation of the Eridani Edict," Caparelli pointed out.

"And so far they haven't invaded our home system, either," D'Orville shot back. The Manticoran tradition was that the Admiralty did not second guess a fleet CO when battle threatened—not even Home Fleet's commander. What D'Orville did with his fleet was his decision. Admiralty House might advise, might provide additional intelligence or suggest tactics, but the decision was his, and it wasn't like Thomas Caparelli to try to change that.

But D'Orville wasn't really surprised by Caparelli's reluctance to admit what he knew as well as D'Orville did had to happen. The First Space Lord knew too many of the men and women aboard D'Orville's ships . . . and he couldn't join them. He would be safely back on Manticore when the hammer came down on Home Fleet, and Sebastian D'Orville knew Caparelli too well, knew exactly what the other admiral was feeling, the miracle he wanted to find. But there were no miracles, not today, and so D'Orville shook his head.
Prepare for Sebastian D'Orville's death ride against a vastly larger fleet. The pain of fighting in the home system is having the entire Admiralty and political bodies looking over your shoulder, but at least they have a strong tradition of not meddling with the man on the spot, unlike in, say, Star by Star.

"I've ordered the Case Zulu message transmitted to all commands," he said, his voice more clipped, his dread of what was to come cloaked in reflex professionalism. "Theodosia can start responding from Trevor's Star in about fifteen minutes, but most of Eighth Fleet is off the terminus, on maneuvers. I don't know how quickly it can get back there, but I'm guessing it'll take at least a couple of hours just for Duchess Harrington to get to the terminus. I'm recalling Jessup Blaine's squadrons from the Lynx Terminus, as well, but our best estimate on his current response time is even longer than Eighth Fleet's."

"And even Theodosia can't do it in a mass transit," D'Orville said grimly. "She's going to have to do it one ship at a time, the same way Hamish did it when the bastards hit Basilisk, because we're going to need everything she's got."

Kuzak could have put almost thirty superdreadnoughts through the Junction in a single mass transit, but the destabilizing effect would have locked down the Trevor's Star-Manticore route for almost seventeen hours. Even in a sequenced transit, each ship of the wall would close the route for almost two minutes before the next in the queue could use it.
Time to reinforcements, and another callback to the beginning of the series (all these callbacks are on reason it really feels like a fitting ending) in reminding us that the wormholes have an upper limit on how much mass can move through, if they over load the wormholes they'll shutdown for almost a full day and there will be no chance for further reinforcement, in the case of Third Fleet, that means a mass transit would lock EIghth Fleet out of the fight and that's one thing they simply cannot do. So one at a time over the course of 2 hours.

"We're scrambling every LAC we've got," Caparelli said. "We should be able to get five or six thousand of them to you by the time you engage."

"That will help—a lot," D'Orville said. "But they've got sixteen carriers with them. That gives them over three thousand of their own."
System defense LACs. Back to roughly 200 LACs to a carrier, if it were the earlier larger number he'd have said over four thousand.

"Forget the screen!" Admiral Theodosia Kuzak snapped. "We can cut fifteen minutes off our total transit time if we leave them behind, and it's not like cruisers and destroyers are going to make any difference, is it?"
Kuzak preparing to transit. Might I suggest you instead send the screen last? It will probably still not inconvenience Eighth Fleet's transit in a few hours.

"Actually, Ma'am," Smithson continued in a low-pitched voice, "I've just had a rather nasty thought. What if this isn't their only fleet? What if they've got another one waiting to hit Trevor's Star as soon as we pull out for Manticore?"

"The same thought occurred to me," Kuzak replied, equally quietly. "Unfortunately, there's not a lot we can do about it, if they do. We've got to hold the home system. If they punch out Hephaestus and Vulcan, take out the dispersed yards, it'll be a thousand times worse than what happened at Grendelsbane. I hate to say it, but if it's a choice between San Martin and Sphinx or Manticore, San Martin loses."
At least thinking about the possibilities.

"Admiral Kuzak," she replied, then continued, getting straight to business, in light of the delay. "I assume you're already planning an immediate transit to Manticore with Third Fleet. I'm sending my battlecruisers ahead, but it's going to take most of my units another two hours-plus to reach the terminus. With your permission, I'll temporarily assign Admiral McKeon's battle squadron and Admiral Truman's carriers to you."

"Thank you, Admiral," Kuzak said very, very sincerely.

"The sooner they get there, the better," Honor replied eight seconds later. "And please remember that three of Alistair's superdreadnoughts are Apollo-capable. I don't know how much difference it's going to make, but—"
Third Fleet is coming through with Eighth's BC(P)s, carriers and one extra squadron of podnoughts, 3 of them with Apollo. In the last war, Third Fleet was the primary offensive element under first White Haven, then Kuzak until they took Trevor's Star, thereafter they were condemned to sit on that critical system while Eighth Fleet was formed to take the fight to the enemy. Well here's their epic comeback.

"So I see," Oliver Diamato murmured. Like Zucker, he was delighted he wasn't already having to play tag with hordes of Manty battlecruisers or—worse!—those damned MDM-armed heavy cruisers he'd heard so much about from NavInt since that business at Monica. But the shoals of LAC impeller signatures sweeping outward from the Junction were building a solid wall of interference which made it almost impossible for his shipboard sensors to see a damned thing, even at this piddling little range. The density of that LAC shell also augured poorly for the survival of his recon drones when they finally got close enough for a look of their own.
The Junction forces are using the LACs to keep Diamato from getting a good look at the Junction, but....

"Much as we may hate to admit it, a one-on-one engagement with one of us would be a Manty BC skipper's wet dream. So if they're not sending them after us, then they must've had wallers in place and ready to start coming through almost immediately, instead. And they're going right on doing it. Which suggests they have quite a few of them on call."

He frowned some more, then looked over his shoulder at his com officer.

"Record for transmission to Guerriere, attention Captain DeLaney."
Diamato's smart enough to figure it out.

"Sir, their acceleration's dropping," Captain Gwynett said.

D'Orville stepped across to her console, accompanied by Captain Ayrault, and she looked up at him.

"How much is it coming down?" he asked.

"Only about a half a KPS squared, so far, Sir."

"What the hell are they up to now?" Ayrault wondered aloud.

"Putting pods on tow, maybe," D'Orville replied.

"I suppose that could be it, Sir," Gwynett raid. "Their pods are almost as stealthy as ours are, and the recon platforms wouldn't be able to see them at this range. But those are superdreadnoughts. They'd have to have an awful lot of tractors to be able to tow so many pods they'd have to tow them outside their wedges."

D'Orville nodded. Pods towed inside a ship's wedge didn't degrade its acceleration. That, after all, was exactly what his own pre-pod designs were doing with the tractor-equipped pods glued to their hulls. But superdreadnought wedges were huge; for the Peeps to be towing so many pods they couldn't fit them all inside their wedges, they'd have to have hundreds of tractors per ship. So they had to be up to something else.

Oh dear, I remember this bit.

"We have to make them count," he told Gwynett, equally quietly. "We know our accuracy and penaids are better, but we've still got to get in close. They're going to bury us whenever we open fire, and according to the recon drones, every single one of their wallers is a pod design. They aren't going to face the same 'use them or lose them' constraints we are.

"So we're either going to wait until they open fire, or else until the range drops to sixty-five million klicks."

Gwynett looked at him for a moment, then nodded slowly.

"I know. I know," he said softly. "But we've got to get our hits through at all costs. We've got to, Madelyn. If we don't, all of this," a slight motion of his head, almost as much imagined as seen, indicated his flag bridge and the fleet beyond it, "is for nothing."
Planned range to fire, and why.

When NavInt reported that the new Manty pods incorporated onboard tractors as a way to allow their pre-pod ships to tow greater numbers of them, it had seemed impossible for the Republic to respond. Their pods were already too big, and they had too limited a power budget, to permit the designers to cram a tractor into them (and power the damned thing), as well. But Shannon had decided to turn the problem on its head. Instead of fitting additional tractors into the pods, she'd come up with the "donkey." That was what everyone was calling it, although it had a suitably esoteric alphabet-soup designation, and it was another of those elegantly simple Foraker specialties.

Instead of the typically Manty bells-and-whistles approach of putting the tractor inside the pod, Shannon had simply built a very stealthy pod-sized platform which consisted of nothing except a solid mass of tractor beams and a receiver for beamed power from the ships which deployed it. Each "donkey" had the capacity to tow ten pods, and a Sovereign of Space-class SD(P) had enough tractors to tow twenty of them. Better yet, they could actually be ganged together, as long as all the pods in the gang could be lined up for power transmission from the mother ship. In theory, they could have been stacked three tiers deep, with each donkey towing ten more donkeys, each towing ten more donkeys, each . . .

If Lester Tourville had so chosen, his two hundred and forty superdreadnoughts could—in theory—have towed 4.8 million pods. Except for the minor fact that the drag would have reduced them to negative acceleration numbers. Not to mention the fact that he didn't begin to have the power transmission capability to feed that many donkeys. Still, he could tow quite a lot of them, and the readiness numbers on the display gave him a sense of profound satisfaction. He studied them a moment longer, then looked at Lieutenant Anita Eisenberg, his absurdly youthful communications officer.
The "donkey" (I could have sworn it was Mule the first time I read it) Foraker's answer to the flat-pack pods making every ship a podlayer, a pod-like cluster of ten tractor beams that can tow ten pods, or ten donkeys, or a mix. Sure they can only stack them in three rows of donkey towing donkey before their ability to feed it power breaks down but that adds up to a lot of pods. With it's 20 tractor beams a Haven podnought can tow between 200 and 20,000 pods without even touching it's internal pod-bay. In short, the opening salvo here is going to be excessive, even for this series.

"No way." Tourville shook his head. "I wish to hell they would, but the Manties picked their best people to command Home Fleet, Third Fleet, and Eighth Fleet. I've studied NavInt's files on all three of them, and they aren't going to cooperate with our plans worth a damn.

"D'Orville's probably the most conventional thinker of the three, but he's also got the simplest equation . . . and plenty of guts. He can't let us get any closer to Sphinx than he can possibly help, so he's going to hit us head on, as far out as he can. He's going to get clobbered. In fact, I'll be surprised if any of his superdreadnoughts survive. But like you just said, it's going to be ugly for both sides, and our own losses are going to be heavy. He knows that, and he probably figures he can score at least a one-for-one exchange rate, despite the tonnage ratios. I think he may be being a little optimistic, but not very much. So given the combat strength he thinks he's up against, he probably figures he'll hurt us so badly we won't be able to close through the fixed inner-system defenses and missile pods. And if his analysis of the balance of forces was correct, he'd be right."
Tourville's thoughts on his opponents today and what each will do, starting with D'Orville.

"Kuzak's more of a free-thinker than D'Orville," Tourville continued. "I'm sure what she's doing right now has their Admiralty's approval, but even if it didn't, she'd do it anyway, on her own initiative. She knows exactly what's going to happen to D'Orville, and to us, and she knows she can't possibly get here in time to affect that outcome. So she's not going to split up her forces and send them in where we could chop them up in detail. Yes, she could've sent a couple of battle squadrons ahead, micro-jumped out to the side and then come back in directly behind us, assuming their astrogation was good enough. But unless she's got those new missiles, any small force she sent after us would get torn apart by the weight of fire we could send back at it.

"So, she's going to wait until she gets everything she's got through the Junction. Then she's going to do her micro-jumping and come in behind us—or more likely on our flank, especially, if we're driven back from Sphinx by our losses—as quickly as she can. She'll be too far behind to overhaul us, even with her acceleration advantage, if she has to come in astern, but she'll figure to put enough time pressure on us to limit the amount of damage we can do even if we've got enough left to risk engaging the Sphinx system-defense pods. At least, she'll figure, she can keep us from moving on from Sphinx to Manticore, and that would save about seventy percent of the system's total industry.

"The fact that she's waiting is the conclusive proof that she doesn't have any—or not very many, at least—of the new missiles, either. If she had a couple of battle squadrons equipped with them, then it would have made enormous sense to send them in, even in isolation. Their accuracy advantage would have been crushing enough to let them do heavy damage to us before we ever met D'Orville. Probably not enough to stop us, but maybe enough to even the odds between us and Home Fleet."
And Kuzak.

"Harrington's probably the most dangerous of the lot," Tourville said, "and not just because we know Eighth Fleet's reequipped with at least some of the new missiles. She's got more actual combat experience than D'Orville or Kuzak, and she's sneaky as hell.

"But what's happening out at the Junction is tempting me to hope we filled an inside straight on the draw. If Eighth Fleet had been in position to intervene, Kuzak wouldn't be coming through the Junction; Harrington would, and we'd have had two or three of her battle squadrons ripping our ass off already. Assuming of course that Admiral Chin didn't have a little to say about it. So it's beginning to look as if Eighth Fleet really may be off on an operation of its own. I'm not planning on counting on that just yet—there could be any number of other explanations—but that's not going to keep me from hoping."

"I think I agree with you, Boss," DeLaney said, then chuckled. "I know Beatrice Bravo was specifically planned to mousetrap Eighth Fleet, and I guess I ought to be disappointed if we're not going to get it, too. But having seen what the lady can do, I'll be just delighted if 'the Salamander' is somewhere else while we're taking on the Manty home system's defenses!"

"I'm tempted to concur," Tourville agreed. "Taking out Eighth Fleet on top of everything else would certainly be a deathblow, but even with Eighth Fleet intact and Harrington to run it, the Manties are done if we take out this system's shipyards and both of the fleets they have defending them."
And Honor. They have a plan for handling Honor and Eighth Fleet's crushing advantage, and it's entirely down to luck that it doesn't work. Just the luck of the draw that Honor was running exercises so she could respond to the Zulu alert but not as part of the first wave from Trevor's Star.

Although Tourville's command was still almost half an hour from its turnover point for a zero/zero intercept of Sphinx, the range between the opposing forces had fallen to just a shade over 84,000,000 kilometers, and their closing speed was up to 45,569 KPS. That geometry gave Tourville's MDMs an effective range of better than 85,369,000 kilometers, which, as Frazier Adamson had just observed, meant they were in extreme missile range of Home Fleet.

But Manticoran MDMs' acceleration rate was just over thirty-four KPS2 higher than his birds could pull. That gave them a current effective range of better than 90,370,000 kilometers, which meant he'd been in their effective range for over two minutes.
The difference in MDM accel rate. Maybe Terraltha or Simon can pull something interesting from the numbers, just trying makes my head hurt.

Sebastian D'Orville's forty-eight pre-pod superdreadnoughts carried 27,840 pods externally, and theoretically, they could have deployed all of them in a single massive wave. In fact, Home Fleet carried a total of almost forty-nine thousand pods, with well over half a million missiles. Lester Tourville's slightly larger superdreadnoughts carried fewer pods, and each of those pods carried fewer missiles, because of the size penalty their bulkier MDMs imposed. So although he had two and a half times as many ships, he had barely twice as many pods, and each of those pods carried seventeen percent fewer missiles. He actually had "only" sixty-four percent more total missiles than Home Fleet.

But Lester Tourville also had Shannon Foraker's "donkey," and that meant every one of Sebastian D'Orville assumptions about the number and size of the salvos he could throw was fatally flawed. And what else he had was far more control channels for the missiles he carried. Not all of the forty-two Manticoran, Grayson, and Andermani SD(P)s confronting him were Keyhole-capable. Still, the majority of them were, and the pod-layers as a group could simultaneously control an average of four hundred missiles each. But the older, pre-pod ships could control only a hundred apiece, whereas each of Tourville's ships had control links for three hundred and fifty missiles, and by using Shannon Foraker's rotating control technique, they could increase that number by approximately sixty percent. So whereas Home Fleet could effectively control a total of just under twenty-two thousand missiles per salvo, Second Fleet could control eighty-four thousand without rotating control links. Worse, it could have increased that total to almost a hundred and thirty-five thousand, if it was prepared to accept somewhat lower hit probabilities, and the "donkey" meant Tourville could actually have deployed the pods to fire that many.
Oh yes, very excessive.

Manticoran fire control was better, Manticoran electronic warfare capabilities and penetration aids were better, and Manticoran MDM's were both faster and more agile. Sebastian D'Orville could confidently expect to score a significantly higher percentage of hits, but that couldn't offset the fact that Second Fleet could control over six times as many missiles. Even if Tourville's hit probabilities had been only half as good as his, the Republic would have scored three times as many hits.

It wasn't quite as bad for the Alliance as the raw numbers suggested. For one thing, deploying that many missiles and launching them without allowing their impeller wedges to cut one another's telemetry links was a far from trivial challenge. In fact, Tourville had decided to limit himself to no more than eighty percent of his theoretical maximum weight of fire. And to clear the firing and control arcs for even that many missiles, he'd been forced to spread his squadrons and their lumpy trails of donkeys and pods more broadly than he'd really wanted to. The separation between his units, necessary for effective offensive fire control, made it more difficult for them to coordinate their defensive fire. On the other hand, Havenite counter-missile doctrine relied so much more heavily than Manticoran doctrine did on mass, as opposed to accuracy, that the sacrifice was less significant than it might have been.
Relative Haven and Manticoran advantages.

Home Fleet's Fire Plan Avalanche called for the pre-pod superdreadnoughts to deploy their pods as quickly as possible. They had to jettison them anyway, in order to clear their own defensive systems, and D'Orville had known from the beginning that he was going to lose a huge percentage of their total pod loads without ever actually firing their missiles. There was nothing he could do about that, however, and the older ships passed control of as many of their additional missiles as they could to their more capable consorts.

The Medusa, Harrington, Adler, and Invictus-class ships didn't deploy a single pod of their own in the initial broadsides. They used solely the pods deployed by D'Orville's older ships, reserving their better protected, internally stowed pods for the follow-up salvos it was at least possible they might live to launch. And since they were firing pods which had been effectively deployed in a single massive pattern, Avalanche also fired its salvos in closer, more tightly spaced intervals than the Republican Navy had yet seen out of any Allied fleet. In fact, Avalanche was almost—not quite, but almost—conceptually identical to Shannon Foraker's rotating control doctrine.

Each fleet's salvo density took the other fleet by surprise. Neither had anticipated such heavy fire . . . but Tourville's projections had been closer than D'Orville's to what he actually got. D'Orville had expected the battle to be short and violent, lasting no more than fifteen or twenty minutes.

The first half of his expectations was more than fulfilled.
Fire Plan Avalanche, get off all the flatpack pods first, save the podnoughts. With the Sd(P)s providing fire control links they can about pull it off. And I guess the Andermani podnoughts are Adler (Eagle) class.

In the seven and a half minutes it took the lead salvo to cross between Home Fleet and Second Fleet, Sebastian D'Orville's ships fired seven salvos at sixty-five-second intervals, each of 1,800 pods, containing a total of 21,600 missiles. Over a hundred and fifty thousand missiles, the maximum Home Fleet's fire control could manage, went screaming through space . . . and 524,000 Havenite missiles rampaged out to meet them. Fire control sensors and reconnaissance platforms all over the star system found themselves half-blinded by the interference and massive impeller source of almost seven hundred thousand attack missiles and many times that many counter-missiles. And then the EW platforms began to add their own blinding efforts to the chaos.

No human could have hoped to sort it out, keep track of it. There was simply no way protoplasmic brains could do it. Tactical officers concentrated on their own tiny pieces of the howling maelstrom, guiding their attack missiles, allocating their defensive missiles. Counter-missiles and MDMs blotted one another from existence as their impeller wedges slammed together. Decoys, jammers, Dazzlers, and Dragon's Teeth matched electronic wiles against tactical officers' telemetry links and onboard control systems. Standard counter-missiles, Mark 31s, and Vipers hurled themselves into the teeth of the mighty salvos. Great gaps and gulfs appeared in the onrushing wavefronts of destruction, but the gaps closed. The gulfs filled in. Laser clusters blazed in desperate last-ditch efforts to intercept missiles with closing speeds eighty percent that of light. MDMs lost their targets, reacquired, lost them again in the howling confusion. Onboard AIs took whatever targets they could find, and the sudden, abrupt changes in their targeting solutions made their final approach runs even more erratic and unpredictable.

And then wave after wave of laser heads began to detonate. Not in scores, or hundreds, or even in thousands. In tens of thousands in each roaring comber of fury.

The battle no one had been able to adequately envision was over in 11.9 minutes from the moment the first missile launched.
Our biggest missile swarm yet, and yeah this is where it kind of just became too much. The mind struggles to encapsulate most of a million missiles exchanged between hundreds of ships, and around this time a lot of the personal elements of combat are lost seeing people we know and care about struggling around battle damage, straining to manage missile defense, it's just not there anymore.

Ninety superdreadnoughts, thirty-one battlecruisers and heavy cruisers, and twenty-six light cruisers had been effectively destroyed in less than twelve minutes. At least twenty shattered, broken hulks continued to coast towards the hyper limit, but they were only wrecks, gutted hulls streaming atmosphere, debris, and life pods while deep within them frantic rescue parties raced against time, fighting with grim determination and courage about which all too often no one would ever know, to rescue trapped and wounded crewmates.

But Home Fleet had not died alone. Sebastian D'Orville mght have been taken by surprise by the weight of Second Fleet's fire, and his computation of the exchange rate might have been overly optimistic as a result, but his ships and people had struck back hard. Ninety-seven Republican ships of the wall had been destroyed outright or beaten into dead, shattered hulks. Nineteen more had lost at least one impeller ring completely. And of the remaining hundred and twenty-four SD(P)s Lester Tourville had taken into the battle, exactly eleven were undamaged.
Casualties of that first exchange, and our most accurate count of Home Fleet comes only in Home Fleet's total destruction. But they achieved a slightly better than 1:1 exchange rate in capital ships, crippled almost twenty more and damaged almost all to a greater or lesser extent.

Home Fleet's LAC screen had suffered massive losses of its own, mostly from MDMs which had lost their original targets and taken whatever they could find in exchange. Despite that, over two thousand of them survived, and they were driving hard to get into their own range of Second Fleet. They could expect to take fewer losses, now that they were free to maneuver defensively and to protect themselves, not Home Fleet's superdreadnoughts, and their crews had only one thought in mind.

More LACs were still streaming towards Second Fleet from the inner system, as well, and it was obvious the Havenites had no desire to tangle with Sphinx's fixed defenses, at least until they could get their own damages sorted out and reammunition. Second Fleet was changing course, crabbing away from Sphinx as it shepherded its cripples protectively out of harm's way.
The Manty LACs are still in the game and going on their own death ride.

Most of the faces on her display showed a greater or lesser degree of shock at the total destruction of Home Fleet, and no wonder. Not only had the sheer weight of the Havenites' fire come as a complete surprise, but all of the Alliance's partners had taken losses when it hit. Of the ninety superdreadnoughts which had just been destroyed, twelve had been units of the Grayson Space Navy, and another twenty-six had been Andermani.
The increasingly diverse nature of Home Fleet, before it's end.

"Judah's right," Honor said. "Our lead superdreadnought won't even transit the Junction for another eight minutes. We'll need another seventy-five minutes just to get the superdreadnoughts and your carriers through, Samuel. That's almost an hour and a half. She can't give them that long to think about things, not when they're already so close to the planet."
Time to Eighth Fleet arrival.

"I agree, too," Honor said. "But two things. First, I want to start rolling pods now. Use their onboard tractors to limpet them to the hulls. I want a third of our total pod loadout out there, if we can manage it."

"Yes, Your Grace," Brigham acknowledged.

"And, second," Honor continued, "let's get some lighter units through as quickly as we can. Admiral Oversteegen, I want your squadron to take lead and transit as soon as you reach the terminus. Admiral Bradshaw and Commodore Fanaafi, you and your Saganami-Cs are attached to Admiral Oversteegen." She smiled grimly. "If the Havenites are still trying to keep an eye on the Junction, let's give whoever's minding their drones something else to worry about."
Honor wants to attach half the podnought loadouts outside their hull for immediate deployment after a wormhole transit and micro-jump. She's also sending through some of the light units to chase of Diamato's observers.
"Any plan which requires the direct intervention of any deity to work can be assumed to be a very poor one."- Newbiespud
Crazedwraith
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Crazedwraith »

A238 wrote: At closest approach, Sphinx is less than an hour inside the hyper limit, meaning a defending fleet could theoretically micro-jump from the Junction to close enough to defend the planet. However, this happy circumstance only lasts a handful of months.
dumb Question time. Which Junction is is D'Orville referring to? Or rather what Terminus/ When he's talking about being torn between having his fleet hang out in orbit of the planet or The junction, it's always The Junction singular as if that's one place. But aren't there like 7 wormholes scattered all over the system?
A238 wrote: And Honor. They have a plan for handling Honor and Eighth Fleet's crushing advantage, and it's entirely down to luck that it doesn't work. Just the luck of the draw that Honor was running exercises so she could respond to the Zulu alert but not as part of the first wave from Trevor's Star.
And the annoying thing for me is since Honor used it in the Battle Of Sidemore the hyperspace reinforcements mousetrap suddenly becomes the decisive factor in many battles in War Of Honor.
A238 wrote: Honor wants to attach half the podnought loadouts outside their hull for immediate deployment after a wormhole transit and micro-jump. She's also sending through some of the light units to chase of Diamato's observers.
This last bit is key as it makes Tourville screw up. He thinks no one would send light units to chase off Diamato if they had podnaughts to send. So he thinks 8th Fleet isn't coming.
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Dominus Atheos
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Dominus Atheos »

Crazedwraith wrote:
A238 wrote: At closest approach, Sphinx is less than an hour inside the hyper limit, meaning a defending fleet could theoretically micro-jump from the Junction to close enough to defend the planet. However, this happy circumstance only lasts a handful of months.
dumb Question time. Which Junction is is D'Orville referring to? Or rather what Terminus/ When he's talking about being torn between having his fleet hang out in orbit of the planet or The junction, it's always The Junction singular as if that's one place. But aren't there like 7 wormholes scattered all over the system?
What? The Manticoran Wormhole Junction is one point in space where several wormhole openings converge, thus the name.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Terralthra »

Crazedwraith wrote:
A238 wrote: And Honor. They have a plan for handling Honor and Eighth Fleet's crushing advantage, and it's entirely down to luck that it doesn't work. Just the luck of the draw that Honor was running exercises so she could respond to the Zulu alert but not as part of the first wave from Trevor's Star.
And the annoying thing for me is since Honor used it in the Battle Of Sidemore the hyperspace reinforcements mousetrap suddenly becomes the decisive factor in many battles in War Of Honor.
Really, this is something Admirals probably wished they could do for a while. In order for the "reinforcements hiding in hyper" to work, you need a) to be pretty sure an attack is coming, and when b) FTL comm of some sort and c) weapons that can range reasonably from the hyper limit to pretty far inside it. The confluence of b and c was technically there at the end of Haven/Manticore 1, but the tactic is mostly useful defensively, and Manticore was not on the defensive during Buttercup. Now that both sides have MDMs and FTL comm, using "reinforcements hiding in hyper" shows up more, because it's actually practical. Honor was the first to use it because she's the only one who had the disposition of forces to use it when it became practical.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

Terralthra wrote:
Crazedwraith wrote:And the annoying thing for me is since Honor used it in the Battle Of Sidemore the hyperspace reinforcements mousetrap suddenly becomes the decisive factor in many battles in War Of Honor.
Really, this is something Admirals probably wished they could do for a while. In order for the "reinforcements hiding in hyper" to work, you need a) to be pretty sure an attack is coming, and when b) FTL comm of some sort and c) weapons that can range reasonably from the hyper limit to pretty far inside it. The confluence of b and c was technically there at the end of Haven/Manticore 1, but the tactic is mostly useful defensively, and Manticore was not on the defensive during Buttercup. Now that both sides have MDMs and FTL comm, using "reinforcements hiding in hyper" shows up more, because it's actually practical. Honor was the first to use it because she's the only one who had the disposition of forces to use it when it became practical.
Yeah. Prior to the invention of FTL communications, you wouldn't really be able to coordinate- it'd take hours to get a message to your 'courier' ship, and therefore hours to summon reinforcements from beyond the hyper limit. Plus additional hours for those reinforcements to get close enough to your enemy to actually harm them.

We DO see multiple battles decided by one side secretly reinforcing their fleet and concealing the fact of that reinforcement from the enemy. White Haven did it first at Third Yeltsin by passing to Havenite spies that he'd removed ships from Grayson, while secretly reinforcing Grayson instead, and thus being able to jump Parnell with about 64 more capital ships than Parnell expected.

I wish this battle had happened 'on screen.'

Then the Havenites did it right back to White Haven at Nightingale, when he went after four Havenite battle squadrons with three of his own. White Haven was very much surprised to have yet another three Havenite squadrons rev up their engines behind him from out of nowhere and yell "BOO!" as soon as he'd conveniently flushed his own missile pods by firing them at the first four squadrons.

As a result, White Haven got his ass kicked up between his ears and lost ten of his 24 ships, almost half, while the Havenites only lost seven of their 56 ships, one eighth.

This battle did happen on screen.

Then Honor managed to dupe Thurston into thinking her superdreadnoughts were actually puny battlecruisers by hiding them under a large tablecloth and setting her EW suites to "nobody here but us chickens" at Fourth Yeltsin, resulting in him getting a pasting even worse than what happened to Parnell in the same system a few years earlier.

And after that, there seems to have been a similar attempt (with the attacking and defending sides reversed) to draw an enemy fleet out of position and hit them with a second attack by way of the Junction at Trevor's Star. White Haven's idea again.

And just off the top of my head, covert reinforcement of a defending fleet shows up again at Second Basilisk. White Haven's idea, yet again.

So yeah, the "defenders in hyper" idea is really just a new wrinkle on something that both sides have been doing to each other throughout the series, made possible by the thorough incorporation of advanced technology.
Ahriman238 wrote:The Janacek Admiralty apparently halted work on the new fortresses, little more than heavily defended control nodes for thousands of missile pods.
In other words, the Manticoran version of Moriarty. :D

Of course, the use of fortress command and control systems to fire large numbers of missile pods has been a standard tactic at least since Second Basilisk, where the first operational use of a podlaying warship was to dump pods of single-drive missiles out so that the Basilisk terminus forts could make use of them.
Seems the hyper limit always exists outside the Goldilocks Band, and the Junction is naturally well outside the hyper limit. In fact, it's seven and eleven light-hours from the two stars of the system, respectively.
Out beyond Pluto, in other words. Also explains how the orbits of the planets in the Manticore system can be quasistable; they're far enough apart that planets out to a light-hour or so might experience nasty eccentricity variations but probably wouldn't get flung into interstellar space.

[Although that dynamic... well, if it were up to me I might NOT give Manticore-A or -B any gas giant planets with . Then again, such are probably necessary to formation of a stable solar system because they tend to sweep the orbital space clear of miscellaneous stray planetoids that might otherwise pose collision hazards, as I understand it]

I imagine that a wormhole junction would have to occur in relatively flat spacetime a respectable distance from the primary, normally. Although clearly they have to happen near stars because otherwise there'd be zillions of the things bouncing around in interstellar void with termini far from any star.

[Then again, for all we know there are, since in the Honorverse, nobody actually sends ships through deep interstellar space since the advent of modern gravitational sensors. So it'd be impossible to detect or survey any wormholes that did exist if their termini were far enough from any star]
At closest approach, Sphinx is less than an hour inside the hyper limit, meaning a defending fleet could theoretically micro-jump from the Junction to close enough to defend the planet. However, this happy circumstance only lasts a handful of months.
More like two years; Sphinx has a long damn orbit.

Basically, the junction 'side' of Manticore-A has a large conical region of space tapering toward the hyper limit- the resonance zone. That effectively extends its hyper limit, because you can't emerge inside the resonance zone. So as long as Sphinx is on that side of the primary, it's 'protected' in that ships emerging too close to it will go splat.

[It also occurs to me that this SHOULD make it easy to find out whether your system has a wormhole junction: fly probes around the exterior of a star system in hyperspace and wait for one of them to smack into the conical 'prohibited zone' between the junction and its star. Then again, just finding the junction doesn't mean finding the termini...

Also, this would have made it pretty damn dangerous to take hyperdrive ships anywhere near the Manticore Binary System if you didn't know about the resonance zone, because on literally half of all possible approach vectors, coming out of hyperspace anywhere near the normal hyper limit is suicide. I wonder if Weber's ever thought of that...]
The Andermani are here, or most of them. 22 Apollo-equipped podnoughts. But there is some friction a Vizeadmiral with a real stick up her rear regarding Manticore and other difficulties integrating the Andy units, so it's drill, drill, drill.
Eh, well, they're Prussians, they can drill.
The bottom line, though, was that the Manticoran and Grayson navies were the explored galaxy's most experienced, battle—hardened fleets. Their margin of superiority over the revitalized navy of Thomas Theisman was far narrower than it once had been, but it remained the Alliance's most significant advantage. And the Andermani, although they were very, very good by any less Darwinian standard, simply weren't up to their allies' weight.

Yet, at least.
The Andermani haven't fought a desperate war for their survival recently, nor had the opportunity to purge an awful lot of senior officers who climbed the ladder based on connections and political reliability rather than skill like Manticore.
Hm. The RMN seemed to be taking the Andermani very seriously back in 1918 (War of Honor, though at that time they may just have underestimated the combat experience disadvantage). And in 1910-or-so (Honor Among Enemies, likewise, plus the combat experience advantage was slimmer then).

But yeah, it's striking how many of the (few) IAN officers we've seen are somehow connected and have strings to pull. Then again, so do a lot of their RMN opposite numbers, since all the current Manticoran senior officers rose through the prewar system.

By contrast, Haven's modern officer corps is, as Theisman observes, entirely a product of the war itself- so they probably have this going for them to a larger extent than Manticore does. Any given senior Havenite officer is a survivor of military actions against a superior enemy and probably executions of a number of their fellows pour encourager les autres. They are not going to be weak-minded.
"Now here this! Now here this! All hands, man Battle Stations! Repeat, all hands man Battle Stations!" Captain Celestine Houellebecq's calm, crisp voice said through the ancient, surging strains of Wagner's Ride of the Valkyries.
Havenite captains, at least the ones on capital ships, can now use whatever sound clip they like as a GQ alarm, and I have to admit Ride of the Valkyries is probably a good way to start the largest space battle ever. Give your side a little shot of confidence before dropping from hyper.
Fair. Me, I'd take Mars, Bringer of War.
Inbound Havenite accel and vector.
Haven's been running at 90% of maximum power since 1911 or so. It's probably a habit by now, and for all I know maybe a safe one- the 80% standard has been in place for a long time and may be the result of undue military conservatism. Plus, Haven has lots of shipyards and having to do compensator overhauls every few years on every ship in the fleet is good practice. :D

It occurs to me that for large fleet formations the REAL reason not to run at maximum acceleration in a fleet battle isn't so much the risk of losing one ship. Because in many circumstances, a 0.5% chance of losing each ship in the formation (from Flag in Exile) in order to gain a 10-20% increase in acceleration is actually worth it, especially for a large fleet that can't be seriously impaired by the loss of any single ship. If you're coldblooded enough, anyway.

No, the real nightmare possibility is that after a compensator failure splatters the crew and causes the ship to rocket out of control, it will slam into other vessels in the same formation. Or that evasive maneuvers by ships thus endangered will cause further collisions.
D'Orville was pleased, in a distant sort of way, by how calm he sounded, but he understood why Gwynett's shoulders had stiffened. Home Fleet contained forty-two SD(P)s and forty-eight older superdreadnoughts. He was outnumbered by better than two and a half-to-one in capital ships, but the ratio was almost six-to-one in SD(P)s. He had twelve pod-laying battlecruisers, as well, but they'd be spit on a griddle against superdreadnoughts.
Forces for the opening.
Note: the Agamemnons have 2/3 the podlaying capacity of an SD(P), assuming they are loaded for bear with the Mark 23, which they really ought to be if they're expected to participate in a fleet battle. So in terms of their ability to dump salvoes they really should count as 2/3 of an SD(P). Where they fall down is on defensive survivability... but as we're about to see, that's not necessarily going to matter.
Flatpack pods make every ship a podlayer, to an extent. But do nothing for fire-control links and leave you stuck with the basic "use it or lose it" nature of pods, even if the situation is generally a lot better.
If a standard capital ship can handle six hundred (!) pods, I imagine an SD(P) could do about the same- in which case it really should be able to fire its external ordnance off in one big whack, then switch to internally carried pods to finish off anything that survives the opening launch.
Prepare for Sebastian D'Orville's death ride against a vastly larger fleet. The pain of fighting in the home system is having the entire Admiralty and political bodies looking over your shoulder, but at least they have a strong tradition of not meddling with the man on the spot, unlike in, say, Star by Star.
Also, note that the RMN is not at all sure Haven isn't about to violate the Eridani Edict by hitting Manticore's planets with an extinction-level event to the face in the form of MDM salvoes.

To be fair this is a rational concern. Sure, there's the risk of the NUMBERLESS HORDES OF THE SOLARIAN LEAGUE launching a massive campaign of bloodthirsty revenge against Haven if they do such a thing. On the other hand, Haven is a long damn way from the League (especially if they can retake Trevor's Star), and they have something like five or six hundred of the wall with hundreds and hundreds more on the way. And those capital ships are armed with MDMs in the hands of battle-hardened crews.

Haven might honestly, and not without reason, think it can take the Solarian retaliation for an Eridani violation, batter Solarian fleets into the ground, and force the League to accept a peace because it can't win on the offensive.

If Haven were feeling a renewal of the old conquistador itch, we could easily imagine this hypothetical Dark!Haven actually using an Eridani Edict against those perfidious Manticorans as their gesture of "to hell with you" against the existing galactic order.

And for all the Manticorans know, this is exactly what's about to happen to them...

[Haven might be overoptimistic to think this way, but it would at least be more or less sane given the current balance of forces. Plus, for all Manticore knows, maybe Haven has superweapons in development, or the ability to reverse-engineer Apollo from captured hardware in the Manticore home system, that would give them even greater confidence in their own strength]
Time to reinforcements, and another callback to the beginning of the series (all these callbacks are on reason it really feels like a fitting ending) in reminding us that the wormholes have an upper limit on how much mass can move through, if they over load the wormholes they'll shutdown for almost a full day and there will be no chance for further reinforcement, in the case of Third Fleet, that means a mass transit would lock EIghth Fleet out of the fight and that's one thing they simply cannot do. So one at a time over the course of 2 hours.
If Third Fleet were Apollo-capable, I'd say "DO EET!" because thirty Apollo-capable SD(P)s would probably be able to handle the existing Havenite force quite well, and having those thirty now is better than having a much larger force too late.

On the other hand, I would probably then get my ass kicked when Chin came out of hyperspace on top of me, so I guess it's a good thing I'm not occupying Sebastian D'Orville's seat? :D
"Forget the screen!" Admiral Theodosia Kuzak snapped. "We can cut fifteen minutes off our total transit time if we leave them behind, and it's not like cruisers and destroyers are going to make any difference, is it?"
Kuzak preparing to transit. Might I suggest you instead send the screen last? It will probably still not inconvenience Eighth Fleet's transit in a few hours.
Well, frankly it makes no practical difference. Kuzak may say "have the screen come later" or not, but the point is that her forces will take long enough to assemble for battle as it is, and waiting for her screen to catch up is just going to make things worse.
The "donkey" (I could have sworn it was Mule the first time I read it) Foraker's answer to the flat-pack pods making every ship a podlayer, a pod-like cluster of ten tractor beams that can tow ten pods, or ten donkeys, or a mix. Sure they can only stack them in three rows of donkey towing donkey before their ability to feed it power breaks down but that adds up to a lot of pods.
Note that this requires that the mothership (somehow!) be able to power the donkey-powering-donkey-powering-donkey arrangement.

Which means that they have to be able to supply enough beamed power to operate uh... 10 + 10*10 + 10*10*10 is 1110 tractor beams. All at once. Through a single emitter-receiver array.

Either the individual tractors are actually very energy-economical, or they have some really big beamed power capability.
With it's 20 tractor beams a Haven podnought can tow between 200 and 20,000 pods without even touching it's internal pod-bay. In short, the opening salvo here is going to be excessive, even for this series.
Ayup. Tourville still holds the record for Single Largest Stupidly Large Missile Barrage, as far as I know. At least, I hope he does. :D
"I think I agree with you, Boss," DeLaney said, then chuckled. "I know Beatrice Bravo was specifically planned to mousetrap Eighth Fleet, and I guess I ought to be disappointed if we're not going to get it, too. But having seen what the lady can do, I'll be just delighted if 'the Salamander' is somewhere else while we're taking on the Manty home system's defenses!"

"I'm tempted to concur," Tourville agreed. "Taking out Eighth Fleet on top of everything else would certainly be a deathblow, but even with Eighth Fleet intact and Harrington to run it, the Manties are done if we take out this system's shipyards and both of the fleets they have defending them."
And Honor. They have a plan for handling Honor and Eighth Fleet's crushing advantage, and it's entirely down to luck that it doesn't work. Just the luck of the draw that Honor was running exercises so she could respond to the Zulu alert but not as part of the first wave from Trevor's Star.
I'm actually not sure. Honor has, what... thirty-five SD(P)s, most of them Apollo-capable? Between that and Third Fleet, I think they might have actually been able to deal with the trap Chin had set for them. Unless I'm missing something.
Although Tourville's command was still almost half an hour from its turnover point for a zero/zero intercept of Sphinx, the range between the opposing forces had fallen to just a shade over 84,000,000 kilometers, and their closing speed was up to 45,569 KPS. That geometry gave Tourville's MDMs an effective range of better than 85,369,000 kilometers, which, as Frazier Adamson had just observed, meant they were in extreme missile range of Home Fleet.

But Manticoran MDMs' acceleration rate was just over thirty-four KPS2 higher than his birds could pull. That gave them a current effective range of better than 90,370,000 kilometers, which meant he'd been in their effective range for over two minutes.
The difference in MDM accel rate. Maybe Terraltha or Simon can pull something interesting from the numbers, just trying makes my head hurt.
Eh, not much to say. One kilometer per second is a LITTLE over 100 gravities, standard long range missile accelerations are 45 to 50 thousand gravities. So the Manticoran acceleration edge indicates that their missiles have about 3500g higher acceleration, translating to about a 7% acceleration advantage at extreme range.

7% higher acceleration means that at the end of a given fixed burn duration you're going 7% faster and have traveled about 7% farther.

You get better mileage out of improving the burn duration- a 7% increase in how LONG your engine burns, at fixed acceleration, will still only result in you going 7% faster... but you've gone about 15% farther, roughly.

(This works because you're going much faster and cover more distance per second at the end of your burn, so adding each second to the end of the run has a drastic positive effect on range).
The Medusa, Harrington, Adler, and Invictus-class ships didn't deploy a single pod of their own in the initial broadsides. They used solely the pods deployed by D'Orville's older ships, reserving their better protected, internally stowed pods for the follow-up salvos it was at least possible they might live to launch.
Oh wait, they DID do what I had in mind!
Our biggest missile swarm yet, and yeah this is where it kind of just became too much. The mind struggles to encapsulate most of a million missiles exchanged between hundreds of ships, and around this time a lot of the personal elements of combat are lost seeing people we know and care about struggling around battle damage, straining to manage missile defense, it's just not there anymore.
Well, frankly, part of it is that there is literally one viewpoint character we've ever met on either side of this battle, both of them the commanding officers, and very few non-viewpoint characters we've built up any sympathy for. So rather than having scenes of the Manticoran missile defense working, working, then holy shit there's too many of them aaaaah! we have this rather impersonal description.
The Manty LACs are still in the game and going on their own death ride.
BANZAAAI!

Well, they do actually maybe have a hope of getting some meaningful shots in against the Havenite screening elements and even capital ships, what with those ships all being damaged, and with Manticoran LACs' ability to use enough EW and evasion to dodge MDMs all day long.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Terralthra »

Simon_Jester wrote:
At closest approach, Sphinx is less than an hour inside the hyper limit, meaning a defending fleet could theoretically micro-jump from the Junction to close enough to defend the planet. However, this happy circumstance only lasts a handful of months.
More like two years; Sphinx has a long damn orbit.

Basically, the junction 'side' of Manticore-A has a large conical region of space tapering toward the hyper limit- the resonance zone. That effectively extends its hyper limit, because you can't emerge inside the resonance zone. So as long as Sphinx is on that side of the primary, it's 'protected' in that ships emerging too close to it will go splat.

[It also occurs to me that this SHOULD make it easy to find out whether your system has a wormhole junction: fly probes around the exterior of a star system in hyperspace and wait for one of them to smack into the conical 'prohibited zone' between the junction and its star. Then again, just finding the junction doesn't mean finding the termini...

Also, this would have made it pretty damn dangerous to take hyperdrive ships anywhere near the Manticore Binary System if you didn't know about the resonance zone, because on literally half of all possible approach vectors, coming out of hyperspace anywhere near the normal hyper limit is suicide. I wonder if Weber's ever thought of that...]
I had pictured it as a cone with a base width of the star, not the base width of the system hyper limit, but according to the book it's actually twice the width of the hyper limit, but it says very specifically that it is difficult to translate from normal space to hyper-space, but does not say that the same is true of the converse. You're definitely right though, the fact that you can't really enter hyper easily for half of a star's hyper limit would be kind of a dead give-away there's something afoot, though that's way too much volume to localize anything in particular, especially you have no idea what the height of the cone is except by sacrificing dozens of ships to try to estimate the slope of the sides. It's possible that Weber means something exactly that specific: you can pass through the RZ just fine; you can transition out of hyper ok inside the RZ, but you'll get lost; transitioning into hyper in the RZ is a complicated form of suicide.

Is there any situation in the books that such a narrow interpretation of the RZ would mess with?
Simon_Jester wrote:
Ahriman238 wrote:With it's 20 tractor beams a Haven podnought can tow between 200 and 20,000 pods without even touching it's internal pod-bay. In short, the opening salvo here is going to be excessive, even for this series.
Ayup. Tourville still holds the record for Single Largest Stupidly Large Missile Barrage, as far as I know. At least, I hope he does. :D
Pretty sure not, actually. He fires 524,000 over a number of ~65k salvoes, but Honor fires a single salvo that obliterates hundreds of SLN SDs in Second Manticore. She shows Filareta 250k missile pods, each with the 8 apollo missiles, and says that's less than 10% of the total available to her. Even if she only fires that 10%, that's 2 million attack missiles in a single salvo. It's never said how many missiles she fires, but to blow away ~300 SDs, and damage 100 more, is probably more than the combined barrage Tourville unleashes here.
Simon_Jester wrote:Eh, not much to say. One kilometer per second is a LITTLE over 100 gravities, standard long range missile accelerations are 45 to 50 thousand gravities. So the Manticoran acceleration edge indicates that their missiles have about 3500g higher acceleration, translating to about a 7% acceleration advantage at extreme range.

7% higher acceleration means that at the end of a given fixed burn duration you're going 7% faster and have traveled about 7% farther.

You get better mileage out of improving the burn duration- a 7% increase in how LONG your engine burns, at fixed acceleration, will still only result in you going 7% faster... but you've gone about 15% farther, roughly.
It's actually odd that Manticore never does this, imo. Why not step them down to equal to the RHN, if it gives them a range advantage with no impact on overall terminal velocity? Weber never seems to consider that, unless there's some sort of direct hard limit of 180 seconds. That would be...very odd.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

Terralthra wrote:I had pictured it as a cone with a base width of the star, not the base width of the system hyper limit, but according to the book it's actually twice the width of the hyper limit, but it says very specifically that it is difficult to translate from normal space to hyper-space, but does not say that the same is true of the converse...

It's possible that Weber means something exactly that specific: you can pass through the RZ just fine; you can transition out of hyper ok inside the RZ, but you'll get lost; transitioning into hyper in the RZ is a complicated form of suicide.
I thought it was the other way round- you can't go from hyperspace to sidereal space inside the Resonance Zone. Otherwise, the Zone wouldn't offer much protection to Sphinx, because the real threat is enemies jumping out of hyperspace and attacking the planet.

Is there any situation in the books that such a narrow interpretation of the RZ would mess with?[/quote]Not really. Especially since Manticore is more or less unique in having a resonance zone that's such a huge menace to navigation.
Simon_Jester wrote:
Ahriman238 wrote:With it's 20 tractor beams a Haven podnought can tow between 200 and 20,000 pods without even touching it's internal pod-bay. In short, the opening salvo here is going to be excessive, even for this series.
Ayup. Tourville still holds the record for Single Largest Stupidly Large Missile Barrage, as far as I know. At least, I hope he does. :D
Pretty sure not, actually. He fires 524,000 over a number of ~65k salvoes, but Honor fires a single salvo that obliterates hundreds of SLN SDs in Second Manticore. She shows Filareta 250k missile pods, each with the 8 apollo missiles, and says that's less than 10% of the total available to her. Even if she only fires that 10%, that's 2 million attack missiles in a single salvo. It's never said how many missiles she fires, but to blow away ~300 SDs, and damage 100 more, is probably more than the combined barrage Tourville unleashes here.
What? BOOOOO!

Dammit, I want Tourville to get that record! Stupid Weber... :finger:
It's actually odd that Manticore never does this, imo. Why not step them down to equal to the RHN, if it gives them a range advantage with no impact on overall terminal velocity? Weber never seems to consider that, unless there's some sort of direct hard limit of 180 seconds. That would be...very odd.
Well, for one I'm not sure he's up on Newtonian physics. For another, it might actually not be possible- an incremental stepdown might not result in a linear decrease in burn time.

Halving your acceleration triples your endurance... but further decreases might not produce a proportionate improvement. If they did, then the "extreme range fire" option would use lower accelerations on single drive missiles, which is the place where extending drive endurance does the most good.

So it may be that they've found a way to put 7% more power through the impeller, but which does not actually affect the parts of the impeller that 'burn out.' Hard to think of an example of this in real life off the top of my head, but there it is.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by VhenRa »

You know... I was reading through House of Steel and noticed something. Grayson has exactly two original clean sheet designs. Their CLAC design and Podlaying Battlecruiser. Joshua-class Destroyer, Paul-class Destroyer, David class Light Cruiser, Disciple class Light Cruiser, Alvarez class Heavy Cruiser, Protector Adrian class Heavy Cruiser, Burleson class Heavy Cruiser... are respectively either direct copies or modifications of the Manty Chanson DDs, Roland DDs, Apollo CL, Avalon CL, Star Knight CA, Saganami-A CA and Saganami-C CA. Same for the Courvoiser Battlecruiser (Reliant BC), Steadholder Denevski SD (Gryphon SD), Benjamin the Great (Again Gryphon) and Harrington/Harrington II (Medusa/Invictius).
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Terralthra »

Simon_Jester wrote:
Terralthra wrote:I had pictured it as a cone with a base width of the star, not the base width of the system hyper limit, but according to the book it's actually twice the width of the hyper limit, but it says very specifically that it is difficult to translate from normal space to hyper-space, but does not say that the same is true of the converse...

It's possible that Weber means something exactly that specific: you can pass through the RZ just fine; you can transition out of hyper ok inside the RZ, but you'll get lost; transitioning into hyper in the RZ is a complicated form of suicide.
I thought it was the other way round- you can't go from hyperspace to sidereal space inside the Resonance Zone. Otherwise, the Zone wouldn't offer much protection to Sphinx, because the real threat is enemies jumping out of hyperspace and attacking the planet.
Not sure I agree, really. If they can transit from hyper to sidereal, but it adjusts your position by, say, 1 light second in a random direction, no attacker would dare put any formation of appreciable size in that way. It might be possible to arrange some sort of attack there, but the likelihood is remote at best that you could even get your formation together again and start advancing before Home Fleet was onto your tricks.
Simon_Jester wrote:
Terralthra wrote:Is there any situation in the books that such a narrow interpretation of the RZ would mess with?
Not really. Especially since Manticore is more or less unique in having a resonance zone that's such a huge menace to navigation.
Sure, but we've had at least three engagements involving the MWJ, or one of its termini.
Simon_Jester wrote:
Terralthra wrote:It's actually odd that Manticore never does this, imo. Why not step them down to equal to the RHN, if it gives them a range advantage with no impact on overall terminal velocity? Weber never seems to consider that, unless there's some sort of direct hard limit of 180 seconds. That would be...very odd.
Well, for one I'm not sure he's up on Newtonian physics. For another, it might actually not be possible- an incremental stepdown might not result in a linear decrease in burn time.

Halving your acceleration triples your endurance... but further decreases might not produce a proportionate improvement. If they did, then the "extreme range fire" option would use lower accelerations on single drive missiles, which is the place where extending drive endurance does the most good.

So it may be that they've found a way to put 7% more power through the impeller, but which does not actually affect the parts of the impeller that 'burn out.' Hard to think of an example of this in real life off the top of my head, but there it is.
Yeah, it just seems highly unlikely that the hardcoded 60/180 second burns are literally the ONLY wedge-timeouts that will work on a missile drive, and have been for at least 25 years (since those were Fearless the first's missile options, too).
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by eyl »

Simon_Jester wrote:It occurs to me that for large fleet formations the REAL reason not to run at maximum acceleration in a fleet battle isn't so much the risk of losing one ship. Because in many circumstances, a 0.5% chance of losing each ship in the formation (from Flag in Exile) in order to gain a 10-20% increase in acceleration is actually worth it, especially for a large fleet that can't be seriously impaired by the loss of any single ship. If you're coldblooded enough, anyway.

No, the real nightmare possibility is that after a compensator failure splatters the crew and causes the ship to rocket out of control, it will slam into other vessels in the same formation. Or that evasive maneuvers by ships thus endangered will cause further collisions.
Assuming no other damage, however, a compensator failure won't change the size or direction of the ship's acceleration vector; it just means the crew can't survive it. The ship's course should be unchanged so long as human intervention isn't needed.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

VhenRa wrote:You know... I was reading through House of Steel and noticed something. Grayson has exactly two original clean sheet designs.
Well, frankly, as of 1904 PD they have NO experienced naval engineers who know how to build a modern impeller-drive warship. Realistically, a lot of their design process would have to be either contracted out to Manticoran firms,

Even in real life, on vessels that use much more primitive technology and are much smaller, designing a ship is a challenging, difficult art. Nations have often tried very hard to rebuild the depth of experience and knowledge it takes to have effective warship design teams, and often they fail.

Meanwhile, Grayson has to build this expertise from scratch, because there is literally no aspect of ship design that is remotely the same for them as for their Manticoran peers.

So the Graysons may be able to set the specifications and say "I know you'd never normally build a ship this way, but this is what we want and are going to pay for, so make it work." But they're not in a good position to come up with a ship totally different from what Manticore is building at the same time. Naturally, this results in a lot of Grayson-"designed" ships that are essentially a modification of a Manticoran design that was already 'on the shelf.'
Terralthra wrote:Not sure I agree, really. If they can transit from hyper to sidereal, but it adjusts your position by, say, 1 light second in a random direction, no attacker would dare put any formation of appreciable size in that way. It might be possible to arrange some sort of attack there, but the likelihood is remote at best that you could even get your formation together again and start advancing before Home Fleet was onto your tricks.
Hm. That's a fair point.
Simon_Jester wrote:
Terralthra wrote:Is there any situation in the books that such a narrow interpretation of the RZ would mess with?
Not really. Especially since Manticore is more or less unique in having a resonance zone that's such a huge menace to navigation.
Sure, but we've had at least three engagements involving the MWJ, or one of its termini.[/quote]First and Second Basilisk involve a system with a weak resonance zone and it's easy to handwave the geometry of the engagement to explain how the battle was fought without interacting with any resonance zone.

Come to think of it, Darlington DID screw up his navigation for the attack on the Basilisk terminus, and maybe this is why...
Simon_Jester wrote:Yeah, it just seems highly unlikely that the hardcoded 60/180 second burns are literally the ONLY wedge-timeouts that will work on a missile drive, and have been for at least 25 years (since those were Fearless the first's missile options, too).
Well yes. The numbers are arbitrary, but I suspect that in 'reality' they have two settings: "maximum acceleration" and "maximum range."

Maximum acceleration is pouring on as much power as the machinery can physically handle, and we know that it IS possible to push that higher with countermissiles (4/3 higher acceleration, 2/3 to 3/4 shorter burn time).

Maximum range is the 'efficiency' setting, and would be defined by the longest that the drive can operate at anything like full power without burning out. You'd set it at the point where you would otherwise hit diminishing returns, where adding one second of burn time doesn't justify the sacrifice of acceleration anymore.
eyl wrote:Assuming no other damage, however, a compensator failure won't change the size or direction of the ship's acceleration vector; it just means the crew can't survive it. The ship's course should be unchanged so long as human intervention isn't needed.
A compensator failure means that every person aboard dies, and every object on the ship (including computers, control runs, and the physical impeller-generating machinery itself) is abruptly subject to an acceleration of several hundred gravities.

In other words, take a machine that previously weighed ten tons, and which was pulled toward the floor with that ten-ton force by the ship's gravity. It now weighs several thousand tons, and that force is pointing toward the stern of the ship, at right angles to the direction the ship's structure is designed to brace and support it from.

This is the equivalent of taking, say, a pickup truck designed to carry a ton of gravel in the bed, standing it on its end, and parking a five hundred ton boulder on top of it. All over, as in this is being experienced simultaneously by every part of the ship, including stuff like the cable ties holding the wires together in the wiring conduits.

It is... over-optimistic to assume that this can happen to a ship without causing further damage to the machinery.

Which could in turn make the ship's course or acceleration change unpredictably- either a sharp increase, or a sudden drop to zero. Either way, bad for navigation.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Batman »

It's likely to do terrible things to the ship's electronics. I seriously doubt it's going do anything besides trashing them though. We're talking an instantaneous increase of several hundred gravities. What are the chances the computers will live long enough to mess up the ship's navigation?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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Batman wrote:It's likely to do terrible things to the ship's electronics. I seriously doubt it's going do anything besides trashing them though. We're talking an instantaneous increase of several hundred gravities. What are the chances the computers will live long enough to mess up the ship's navigation?
It's happened "on page", and Weber (inexplicably) describes it as nothing outward happening except the ship stopping maneuvres and non-automatic actions.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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I've been thinking about missiles VS ships for awhile now and a comparison came to me on why the 60/180 limits exist.
Simply put the missile drives are not built the same way to the same scale a ship drives. After all the limit to ships "only" doing 500 kps accelerations is not the ship but the compensator, better compensator=better acceleration which is why missiles get crazy good acceleration rates since they are built to handle huge acceleration G forces being made of metal and wire not puny meatbags.

But why the 60/180 second limits? Well let me try this one on you... Lightbulbs. See the heated up wire in an old vacuum bulb is only designed to last so long before burning out. Not because better materials are not available but because cheaper ones were not. Want a screw in light bulb that last's 90 years? Give me 1800$ a bulb and I can make you one.

Likewise a honorverse missile has a life time of under a day once it's been spun up and fired. Meaning a honorverse engine is not built to the same standards of a ship board missile. After all why would you since the EOL of a Impeller missile is an explosion as either it fires at the target or gets hit by a point defense laser or counter missile. So it makes sense that the engines would be built to a cheap if exacting standard. 180 seconds is the limit because after that there's no guarantee the engine will function. It's only design to hold up to the stresses of acceleration for that long at that speed before things start breaking by space dust particle impacts if nothing else. Thus the light bulb comparison. It may be that such an engine after 180 seconds of acceleration is so much space junk. Having done it's job to exacting standards. Maybe it's designed to run for 200 seconds once and the safety margin is simply not used because statistical analysis says that a 18 missile salvo if they all tried to run for 200 seconds 1/3rd would not last that long. So by setting it at 180 seconds all 18 launch and stay together.

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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Terralthra »

Simon_Jester wrote:
Terralthra wrote:Not sure I agree, really. If they can transit from hyper to sidereal, but it adjusts your position by, say, 1 light second in a random direction, no attacker would dare put any formation of appreciable size in that way. It might be possible to arrange some sort of attack there, but the likelihood is remote at best that you could even get your formation together again and start advancing before Home Fleet was onto your tricks.
Hm. That's a fair point.
I re-read the Battle of Manticore, and I'm clearly wrong, since 8th Fleet transitions to hyper from inside the RZ and jumps to outside it. So, I'm further mystified. How did they explain half of Manticore's hyper limit extending for 7 light hours than the other half, before they knew about the Junction?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

To be fair, hyperspace travel was extremely poorly understood at first, and most of hyperspace physics was developed after the fact to explain phenomena that were empirically observed first. Sort of like how the science of meteorology came long after the experience of people sailing around on the sea and encountering hazards like hurricanes and useful phenomena like the trade winds.

Indeed, the sensors to detect most naturally occurring hyperspace hazards didn't even exist until several centuries after the first hyperspace-capable ships were built.
Batman wrote:It's likely to do terrible things to the ship's electronics. I seriously doubt it's going do anything besides trashing them though. We're talking an instantaneous increase of several hundred gravities. What are the chances the computers will live long enough to mess up the ship's navigation?
We've seen compensator failure scenarios before in which the ship accelerated at two thousand gravities long enough to ram someone (a deliberate, preset action).

Or where it accelerated out of control for an extended period of time before something critical to engine function finally broke (this happened to a Manticoran royal yacht at some point, I think).

So while the navigation computers may get pancaked in a compensator failure, the ship itself doesn't always stop accelerating or maneuvering.

Therefore, it may be difficult to predict exactly what such a ship will or won't do. It might stop suddenly, it might veer to one side, it might speed up or slow down.

And the fear of this, and of the chain reaction that could be caused by Ship A dodging Ship B and ending up in the path of Ship C, may have a lot to do with why nobody wants to risk compensator failures on their warships except when ultimately desperate.
Mr Bean wrote:I've been thinking about missiles VS ships for awhile now and a comparison came to me on why the 60/180 limits exist.

Simply put the missile drives are not built the same way to the same scale a ship drives. After all the limit to ships "only" doing 500 kps accelerations is not the ship but the compensator, better compensator=better acceleration which is why missiles get crazy good acceleration rates since they are built to handle huge acceleration G forces being made of metal and wire not puny meatbags.
Nitpick: 500 gravities is not 500 kilometers per second squared; it's five. But yeah, true true.
But why the 60/180 second limits? Well let me try this one on you... Lightbulbs. See the heated up wire in an old vacuum bulb is only designed to last so long before burning out. Not because better materials are not available but because cheaper ones were not. Want a screw in light bulb that last's 90 years? Give me 1800$ a bulb and I can make you one.

Likewise a honorverse missile has a life time of under a day once it's been spun up and fired. Meaning a honorverse engine is not built to the same standards of a ship board missile. After all why would you since the EOL of a Impeller missile is an explosion as either it fires at the target or gets hit by a point defense laser or counter missile. So it makes sense that the engines would be built to a cheap if exacting standard.

180 seconds is the limit because after that there's no guarantee the engine will function. It's only design to hold up to the stresses of acceleration for that long at that speed before things start breaking by space dust particle impacts if nothing else. Thus the light bulb comparison. It may be that such an engine after 180 seconds of acceleration is so much space junk. Having done it's job to exacting standards. Maybe it's designed to run for 200 seconds once and the safety margin is simply not used because statistical analysis says that a 18 missile salvo if they all tried to run for 200 seconds 1/3rd would not last that long. So by setting it at 180 seconds all 18 launch and stay together.
Except that in that case it would make sense to take the chance under certain circumstances. Say, when engaging an individually weaker opponent and trying to nail it before getting hit back.

Think about the situation Wayfarer was in at the end of Honor Among Enemies. Imagine if they could spam 300 missiles at the first Havenite battlecruiser, accept that 'only' 150 or 200 of them would still be running after a long burn that pressed their safety margins by trying to run the drive for 200 seconds. In those extra 20 seconds, their missiles go about 23% farther compared to Havenite missiles of equal acceleration but a 180-second burn time.

They could thus hit the Havenite ship before it got off any missile shots. Which, for an eggshell-armed-with-sledgehammer like Wayfarer, is a major tactical advantage in an emergency.

Also, extending the lifetime of the missile by 1% increases effective range by 2%, and people are routinely getting huge benefits out of outranging the enemy. So there IS a powerful incentive to design more rugged missiles, or to push the edge of the envelop in how much burn duration you can get out of them.

It seems as though the time limits on a given missile's drive are quite hard and fast, such that you can't get any significant increase in burn duration (even 5-10%) by pushing the edge of the envelope. Or if you can, it's not worth a 10-20% increase in powered missile engagement envelope to try... EVER.

That sounds more like a firm limit than a 'stretchy' one to me. It's as if light-bulbs ALWAYS burned out after, say, six months, and it was NEVER economical to build a more rugged one. And it wasn't even worth trying to let 100 light-bulbs burn for seven months in hopes that most of them would still be working.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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Your making two assumptions there Simon

1. An engine pushing past burnout simply stops working rather than say... exploding
2. An engine can be adjusted on the fly unlike say the components auto shut down after hitting the hard 180 second limit. It would help if we ever saw a missile pushed past the 180 second limit ever.

I know I made a few assumptions but the counter to my assumptions is more assumptions so I will make some assumptions to back up my first assumptions :D

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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

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1) If you're actively firing a missile at someone, there's no practical difference between "it suddenly stops working" and "it explodes." Either way, it fails to harm the enemy and that's all.

It's already several million kilometers downrange and headed away at thirty percent of the speed of light; if it explodes it's someone else's problem.

Come to think of it, don't they canonically already have self-destruct charges in place to blow up 'dud' missiles anyway?

So that's not an assumption on my part, because I see no reason why the people launching the missile would even care if it failed explosively at 190 seconds instead of just quietly shutting down. No skin off their nose.

2) IF the engine can in fact make it to T+190 seconds a fair fraction of the time, wouldn't it be prudent to include some means for a captain to remove the '180-second-cutoff' functionality? You never know, they just might want to fire an extreme-range missile salvo just this once.

The 180-second cutoff seems to be very hard and fast, which suggests that 'standard' missiles routinely cut out at that burn time regardless of any other consideration... and that it is effectively impossible to gain more time.

Or that if you CAN gain more time, it's very very cost-ineffective to try. Something like "after this point, missiles burn out at a rate of 80% of the salvo per five seconds of burn time, so to gain even a six or seven percent increase in range you must accept that only 1/5 of your salvo will actually reach the target."
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Batman »

I assume Bean was worried about missile fratricide when they go kablooiee rather than merely shutting down, which should be a nonissue even if it somehow does result in the warhead going off what with the missile separation forced by the wedges. And unless missile drives work significantly differently from ship ones, one of them going up shouldn't result in anything except the missile becoming a fatality.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington III

Post by Simon_Jester »

By the time they've traveled that far and are going that fast, it is highly unlikely that shrapnel from the explosion of one missile would do any harm to the others. At least, not in time to matter.
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