Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Wow. That was a long time ago for a reply.
Irbis wrote: From where? Ooh boy, where to start there are so many possibilities...

Take WW II Ireland for instance - it had cold relationship with UK, yet many thousands of Irish soldiers and sailors choose to 'desert' to fight for Queen and co. Why Beowulf can't arrange for a few thousands of their navy personnel to 'defect' clandestinely along with a lot of their shipyard guys to help their best buds in need? Or hell, why Manticore simply won't pay to establish shipyard subcontractors (no need to move workers) manufacturing less critical tech in Beowulf space, free from all attacks, to concentrate on critical tech? They were supposed to have more money than manpower, no?
Manticore didn't run into a serious manpower crunch until it had been building ships at the maximum possible rate for several years. By the time it was becoming a desperate enough problem that they really needed to think about hiring foreigners en masse to join their military, they were pretty close to winning the war by other means.
No option? He just got direct order from his superior - somehow, Honor in the same situation peed all over her superiors to get results. Ok, Diamato might not be Mary Sue so he might not have such callous indifference for command structure,
Honor was captain of her own ship, the flagship of the fleet, the one who routinely acted as her admiral's tactical deputy.

Joanna Hall was also captain of a flagship, same situation, and had the approval of her political officer in jumping the chain of command- which would arguably give her a lot more protection from consequences than Honor had any right to count on.

Diamato had nothing, he was not only outranked by the junior admirals but by all the other captains in the fleet.

Basically, when Hall took command it was the fleet's #3 officer issuing orders because #2 was useless- very questionable, but not completely out of the question in a crisis. When Hall was killed and Diamato took over her ship, he was something like #47- he could not credibly issue orders while #2 was still alive.
but my point was that somehow Manty LAC were armed with hard-drive erasing magnets as Diamato's fleet turns out to have no useful info on them despite dozens of repeated attacks...
Uh, no. I'm sorry, but this is completely delusional.

The essence of the problem Diamato runs into is that the sensor data left over from the handful of badly damaged ships is fragmentary enough that it does not provide a complete, comprehensive, indisputable picture of what the new LACs can do. Not well enough to convince people who already know it's impossible, that you literally cannot cram that performance onto that hull.

So the Havenites take only modest steps to counter the new LACs (we do see some), in the relatively short span of time before Buttercup effectively ends the war by rolling out the MDM, which is vastly more effective than the LAC as a war-winning weapon.

What you are stubbornly missing here is that it takes time to adapt to new enemy weapons. There is institutional inertia to override if the weapon is radically new, there are doctrines to be simulated and worked out in practice, there are new training manuals to write and read before the fleet can actually implement a new doctrine. Somehow, you seem to be thinking "Diamato encountered LACs in Book Eight, but Haven still didn't have a good counter-LAC plan in Book Nine, therefore Diamato's entire story arc is pointless even though he played a huge role in devising counter-LAC plans in Book Ten."

That's not a problem with Weber's writing, it's a problem with your attention span.
That in the same book where identical ships attacking fort/fleet group under extremely heavy ECM can still pick ship/class signatures at far greater distance. The point McQueen gets to discuss in following book with St Just is especially laughable - they argue how strong energy weapons LAC had were, as if there was no full fleet of shot ships in port to simply measure holes and establish how strong the weapons were with 99% certainty :roll:
In real naval battles, it is sometimes hard to figure out what caused a hole in a given ship- was it a 12" artillery shell? A 10" shell? And 8" shell? Who knows? You can make statistical estimates, but there is considerable room for doubt- especially if you know the same ships were also getting shot up with missiles at the same time, and I believe there were missiles being fired into the battleships at the time.
Also, there is the fact that just a single small carrier wing of LACs did damage far greater than they did in any of the following books where much greater more advanced LAC forces do much less to proportionally not that much stronger ships
...Would this not logically be exactly what you would expect as the Havenites adapt to the LAC threat, get at least some operational information about the 'Ghost Rider' ECM systems, and modify their fleet defense doctrine to counter the LACs?

How can you even say this, your argument is that
1) The Havenites don't do enough to counter the LAC threat, and
2) The Havenites are losing their vulnerability to LACs too quickly.

You can't have it both ways.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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Simon_Jester wrote:
That in the same book where identical ships attacking fort/fleet group under extremely heavy ECM can still pick ship/class signatures at far greater distance. The point McQueen gets to discuss in following book with St Just is especially laughable - they argue how strong energy weapons LAC had were, as if there was no full fleet of shot ships in port to simply measure holes and establish how strong the weapons were with 99% certainty :roll:
In real naval battles, it is sometimes hard to figure out what caused a hole in a given ship- was it a 12" artillery shell? A 10" shell? And 8" shell? Who knows? You can make statistical estimates, but there is considerable room for doubt- especially if you know the same ships were also getting shot up with missiles at the same time, and I believe there were missiles being fired into the battleships at the time.
Ghost Rider MDMs, fired from Minotaur. That there was "no ship in range to fire missiles" according to the fragmented records the Peeps come home with contributes to the conclusion that it wasn't LACs that reamed the task force. After all, no way LACs fired those missiles. There must have been some other ship in stealth that launched missiles, and also could potentially have contributed to the energy fire...etc.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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Ah. Which does form a self-consistent hypothesis, more or less.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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Also, there is the fact that just a single small carrier wing of LACs did damage far greater than they did in any of the following books where much greater more advanced LAC forces do much less to proportionally not that much stronger ships
You do remember that even during Second Hancock the BBs while still in formation were killing LACS by the numbers, right? To the point that Captain Harmon issued a 'last pass, people' order because of her mounting losses. It wasn't until that idiot Porter gave the scatter order that the BBs got eaten. A fleet of mere BBs, with zero intelligence on the new threat, no doctrine to deal with it, no time to absorb that doctrine if it existed to begin with, still managed to keep off the new LACs to the point that if Hall hadn't been killed, most of them would have made it back home battered but alive.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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He disliked clandestine ops on principle, and the superiors who'd explained how this was supposed to work had either totally underestimated the narrow-minded hesitancy of the Masadans or else lied when they briefed him. He was inclined to believe it was the former, yet one could never be entirely certain of that. Not in the People's Republic.

The outside galaxy saw only the huge sphere Haven had conquered. It didn't realize how fragile the Republic's economy truly was or how imperative that fragility made it that Haven continue to expand. Or just how calculating and cynically manipulative the PRH's leaders had become, even with their own subordinates, under the pressure of that imperative.

Yu did. He had more sense of history than most officers of the People's Navy—more of it than his superiors would have preferred. He'd almost been expelled from the Academy when one of his instructors discovered the secret cache of proscribed history texts written when the People's Republic was still simply the Republic of Haven. He'd managed to create enough uncertainty over who actually owned the offensive tapes to avoid expulsion, yet it had been one of the more terrifying episodes of his life—and he'd been careful to conceal his innermost thoughts ever since. The sophistry he practiced bothered him, at times, but not enough to change it, for he had too much to lose.
Alfredo Yu's musings on the apparent strength and surprising frailty of Haven. The strongest military outside the Solarian League is shackled to Haven's deep-seated social and economic problems. Also, apparently some histories are forbidden, at least at the military academy.
Yu's family had been Dolists for over a century. The captain had clawed his way out of prole housing and off the Basic Living Stipend by sheer guts and ability in a society where those qualities had become increasingly irrelevant, and if he had no illusions about the People's Republic, he had even less desire to return to the life he had escaped.
Clearly Dolists do not lead charmed lives swimming in luxury devoid of responsibility, whatever some people may tell you.
Not that Haven didn't have its own warts, he reflected, falling back into the dispassionate reverie whose Social Dysfunction Indicators would have horrified the Mental Hygiene Police. Two centuries of deficit spending to curry favor with the mob had wrecked not only the People's Republic's economy but any vestige of responsibility among the families who ruled it. Yu despised the mob as only someone who had fought his way clear of it could, but at least its members were honest. Ignorant, uneducated, unproductive leeches, yes, but honest. The Legislaturists who mouthed all the politically correct platitudes for the benefit of the rest of the galaxy and the Dolist Managers who controlled the prole voting blocs were better educated and dishonest, and that, in Captain Alfredo Yu's considered opinion, was the only way they differed from the mob.
Yu is apparently a self-made man, a rarity in pre-Revolutionary Haven. Also, Mental Hygiene Police who take away the anti-social. Think that was an intentional shot at the Vorkosigan books? Anyways, here the MHP seem to be the secret police, a book later that will be InSec, Internal Security. Might be a retcon, might be the two organizations co-exist.
"At this time," he continued in the same level voice, "there is only one Manticoran warship in Yeltsin space, probably a destroyer. That vessel's primary responsibility is undoubtedly the protection of Manticoran nationals, and I estimate that its secondary mission priority will be to protect the freighters which have yet to be unloaded. Under the circumstances, I would expect its commander to adopt a wait and see attitude, at least initially, if we attack Grayson. Obviously I can't guarantee that, but Grayson should assume they can defeat our 'raids' themselves, and if the commander of the remaining Manticoran ship shares that belief, he'll almost certainly remain in Grayson orbit until it's too late. Once we've destroyed the bulk of the Grayson Navy, he'll be faced with a manifestly hopeless situation and may well withdraw entirely, taking his diplomats with him."
Later, I'll mention why this is interesting. Promise.
"We could be ready to launch the first attack in forty-eight hours. I can't say precisely how quickly things will move after that, since so much will depend on the speed with which Grayson reacts.
2 days from a launch order to the actual fleet departure, or perhaps arrival at Grayson, which would most of a day. Still not bad for a whole fleet, even one with less than 30 ships.
The problem was that Wolcott needed to talk to someone from inside that circle—and not Venizelos or Cardones. They were both approachable to their juniors, but she was afraid of how the Exec might react if he thought she was criticizing the Captain. And Cardones' reaction would probably be even worse . . . not to mention the fact that anyone who wore the Order of Gallantry and the blood-red sleeve stripe of the Monarch's Thanks was more than a little daunting to anyone fresh from Saganami Island, even if she was his junior tactical officer. But Lieutenant Tremaine was young enough—and junior enough—to feel less threatening. He knew the Captain, too, and he was assigned to a different ship, so if she made a fool of herself, or pissed him off, she wouldn't have to see him every day.
So a junior crew woman who was harassed and molested by a Grayson officer wants to speak to a superior, but is afraid. She didn't step forward at the time because they were leaving, and she knew the Captain had swallowed a ton of BS so now she's afraid to speak to any officer even tangentially connected to the Captain, which is all of them. Still interesting that the crew of the new Fearless regard the crew of the old Fearless, the Basilisk vets, as the Old Guard.
"Good. I promise you'll get support, not a reaming." He leaned back again, then smiled. "Actually, I think what you really need is someone to ask for advice when you don't want to stick your neck out with one of the officers, so finish your coffee. I've got someone I want you to meet."
"Who's that, Sir?" Wolcott asked curiously.

"Well, he's not exactly someone your folks would want me to introduce you to," Tremaine said with a wry smile, "but he certainly straightened me out on my first cruise." Wolcott drained her cup, and the lieutenant rose. "I think you'll like Chief Harkness," he told her. "And—" his eyes glinted wickedly "—if anyone aboard Fearless knows a way to deal with scumbags like that Grayson without involving anyone else, he will!"
Just made me laugh. Senior noncoms are great for handling things you don't want to involve officers in, and Chief PO Harkness is always awesome, even when just mentioned.
"He really likes rabbit, doesn't he?" McKeon observed, and Honor smiled.
"Not all 'cats do, but Nimitz certainly does. It's not like celery-every 'cat loves that—but Nimitz is an epicure. He likes variety, and 'cats are arboreals, so he never had a chance to taste rabbit until he adopted me." She chuckled. "You should have seen him the first time I offered him some."
Are there many rabbits on Sphinx, then? You'd think in the future people would have learned not to take them everywhere sans foresight. Then again, most Sphinxian life we've heard of consists of 6-legged lynxes, pumas, and polar bears. Oh, and some fish. Maybe the locals will be okay after all.
"Then you'll just have to figure out how." She looked back up at him, and he shrugged. "I know—easy for me to say. After all, I've got gonads. But they're still going to be there when we get back from Casca, and you're going to have to deal with them then. You're going to have to, whatever the Admiral may have achieved in our absence, and not just for yourself. You're our senior officer. What you do and say—what you let them do or say to you—reflects on the Queen's honor, not just yours, and there are other women serving under your command. Even if there weren't, more women are going to follow you in Yeltsin sooner or later, and the pattern you establish is the one they'll have to deal with, too. You know that."

-snip-

"No, I said you had to understand diplomacy. There's a difference. If you really did pull out of Yeltsin because of the way they reacted to you, then you let their prejudices put you in a box. You let them run you out of town when you should have spit in their eye and dared them to prove there was some reason you shouldn't be an officer."

"You mean I took the easy way out."

"I guess I do, and that's probably why you feel like you ran. There are two sides to every dialogue, but if you accept the other side's terms without demanding equal time for your own, then they control the debate and its outcome."

"Um." Honor buried her nose in Nimitz's fur for a moment and felt his rumbling, subsonic purr. He clearly approved of McKeon's argument—or at least of the emotions that went with it. And, she thought, Alistair was right. The Havenite ambassador had played his cards well in his efforts to discredit her, but she'd let him. She'd actually helped him by walking on eggs and trying to hide her hurt and anger when Grayson eyes dismissed her as a mere female instead of demanding the respect her rank and achievements were due.
Mckeon gives Honor both the butt-kicking and pep talk she needs to deal with her issues. There relationship really has come a long way, to the point where not only can they have this conversation, but he's probably the only one of the original Fearless crew who could have this conversation with her.
"Not his type, believe me. He's part of the domestic group that wants to hold down our own Fleet expenditures to keep from 'provoking' Haven, and he genuinely believes we could avoid war with them if the military only stopped terrifying Parliament with scare stories about Havenite preparations. Worse, he thinks of himself as a student of military history."
Interesting, I've heard this argument before, that a strong military in and of itself serves as provocation to one's neighbors, or at least a threat they have to honor. Usually it's a strawman of people who said such things during the Cold War, in this context it makes a certain sense given the pseudo-Napoleonic styling of the early series. Who else puts so much effort into a true first-rate navy?

Oh, and once again everyone but the Centrists are blind to the inevitability of Haven continuing to expand as it has for decades. Naturally the above 'He' can refer only to Reggie Houseman.
"Well, maybe it's a relief to know you've got people on your team with bean curd for brains, too. All right, Raoul. Thanks for the warning. I'll have a word with the Chancellor and try to sit on our people if he does."
Made me laugh. Also reminded of that Star Trek bit from First Contact (TNG episode, not the movie) where the alien Prime Minister says that he likes that the Federation "makes mistakes." However advanced the technology, people remain people.
" . . . so our greatest need, Admiral," Chancellor Prestwick finished his initial statement, "is for general industrial aid and, specifically, whatever assistance we can secure for our orbital construction projects. Particularly, under the circumstances, for naval expansion."
So industry is job one for the Alliance, expansion of the navy and orbital infrastructure.
"Masada is badly over-populated in terms of its productive capacity," Houseman went on, "and Grayson requires additional infusions of capital for industrial expansion. If you opened markets in the Endicott System, you could secure a nearby planetary source for foodstuffs and sufficient capital to meet your own needs by supplying Masada with the goods and services it requires for its population."
Naturally Reggie has to stick his foot in his mouth by suggesting they make business not war. I am curious what he means by over-populated for their productive capability. Does that mean there are too many people and not enough industrial tech to support them, or that Masada has a powerful industry hurting for new markets?
"as I was saying, Mr. Chancellor, we will assist your naval expansion in any way we can. Of course, as you yourself have indicated, you have other needs, as well. The equipment and materials already being transferred from our freighters to your custody will make a start towards meeting some of them, but their long-term solution is going to be an extensive and difficult task. Balancing them against your military requirements will require some careful tradeoffs and allocations, and I'm sure Mr. Houseman will agree that the best way to meet all of them will be to upgrade your own industrial and technical base. And I think we can assume your major trading partner will be Manticore, not Masada, at least—" he allowed himself a wintry smile "—for the foreseeable future."
The Manticorans have a plan, and seem to agree that getting Grayson industry and technology up to snuff is top priority.
"The reason these people are expanding their population after centuries of draconian population control, the reason they need those orbital farms, is that Masada is getting ready to wipe them out and they need the manpower to fight back. I was prepared to learn their fears were exaggerated, but after studying their intelligence reports and the public record, it's my opinion, Mr. Houseman, that they have in fact understated the case. Yes, they have a stronger industrial base, but the other side outnumbers them three-to-one, and they need most of that industry simply to survive their planetary environment! If you'd bothered to examine their library data base, or even the précis Ambassador Langtry's staff have assembled, you'd know that. You haven't, and I have absolutely no intention of allowing your uninformed opinions to color the official position of this mission."
Draconian population control, just to make it clear that the time of Graysons going at it like rabbits in the hope that a couple kids would live to adulthood really are ancient history. Masada's sheer number and Grayson's sinking so much resources into simple survival makes for a decent disparity. As you're about to see.
"Hogwash!" Houseman snorted. "I don't care what mystic gobbledygook they spout! The fact is that their economy simply won't support the effort—certainly not to 'conquer' such a hostile-environment planet!"

"Then perhaps you'd better tell them that, not their intended victims. Their fleet is twenty percent stronger overall than Grayson's, and much stronger in terms of hyper-capable units. They have five cruisers and eight destroyers to Grayson's three cruisers and four destroyers. That's not a defensive power mix. The bulk of the Masadan Navy is designed for operations in someone else's star system, but the bulk of the Grayson fleet consists of sublight LACs for local defense. And LACs, Mr. Houseman, are even less capable in combat than their tonnage might suggest because their sidewalls are much weaker than those of starships. The local orbital fortifications are laughable, and Grayson doesn't know how to generate spherical sidewalls, so their forts don't have any passive anti-missile defenses. And, finally, the Masadan government—which nuked planetary targets in the last war—has repeatedly stated its willingness to annihilate the 'godless apostates' of Grayson if that's the only way to 'liberate' and 'purge' the planet!"
So for the scorecard.

Grayson- 3 CA, 4 DD, ? LAC (20+)

Masada- 5 CA, 8 DD, 20 LAC

Masada also has privateers with Q-ships and perhaps a couple of frigates. Or they did several years ago.
"All that is available from the public record, Mr. Houseman, and our own Embassy reports confirm it. They also confirm that those industrially backward Masadans have committed over a third of their gross system product to the military for the last twenty years! Grayson can't possibly do that. They've only managed to stay in shouting distance because their larger GSP means the smaller percentage they can divert to the military is about half as large in absolute terms. Under the circumstances, only an idiot would suggest they ought to give their enemies more economic muscle to beat them to death with!"

"That's your opinion," Houseman muttered. He was white-faced with mingled fury and shock, for he'd looked only at absolute tonnages in the casual glance he'd given the comparative naval strengths. The difference in capabilities hadn't even occurred to him.
Ah, I'm guessing then that he didn't mean the Masadan economy is over-strong earlier. Masada has spent 20 years (since their last defeat) funneling more than a third of their GDP into the military. I do believe that's close enough to a total war footing. Not sure why any of this is a surprise to the economist. Though I will understand he might not have considered that some ships are just better than others, or function in limited roles. Just not if he pretends to be a "student of military history."

Ah Weber, can't you give us someone who disagrees with your heroes but is neither a moron nor a coward? Oh, right. Theisman. Well, thanks for that, I guess.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

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There are more in the later books. Some of the previous stupid antagonists actually evolve towards this, from being complete idiots.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by andrewgpaul »

Yes, Weber does get better at this. It's certainly an improvement from the early Starfire novels, where "military = good guy, polititian = conniving villain" was painfully obvious.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Ahriman238 wrote:Alfredo Yu's musings on the apparent strength and surprising frailty of Haven. The strongest military outside the Solarian League is shackled to Haven's deep-seated social and economic problems. Also, apparently some histories are forbidden, at least at the military academy.
Which is if anything more damning- because a state which does not trust its military to have accurate pictures of history is a state that is truly afraid of what people will see when they looked at it honestly.
Yu's family had been Dolists for over a century. The captain had clawed his way out of prole housing and off the Basic Living Stipend by sheer guts and ability in a society where those qualities had become increasingly irrelevant, and if he had no illusions about the People's Republic, he had even less desire to return to the life he had escaped.
Clearly Dolists do not lead charmed lives swimming in luxury devoid of responsibility, whatever some people may tell you.
Honestly, I've always pictured it as a scaled-up version of living in modern public housing, with all the same social problems urban environments have in the US. I get the feeling the BLS basically consists of just mailing everyone who doesn't have a job a check, rather mindlessly, and the combination of this, and of systematic mismanagement and neglect of the economy, has reduced the average Peep citizen to a condition of ignorance and incompetence by the time 1900 PD rolls around.
Yu is apparently a self-made man, a rarity in pre-Revolutionary Haven. Also, Mental Hygiene Police who take away the anti-social. Think that was an intentional shot at the Vorkosigan books? Anyways, here the MHP seem to be the secret police, a book later that will be InSec, Internal Security. Might be a retcon, might be the two organizations co-exist.
They do. Basically, InSec is the Gestapo, while the MHP are the "soft power" version responsible for things like the medicalization of dissent, which was a very real thing in the USSR. And the PRH is basically a mishmash of the historical 1980s USSR (huge military, brittle economy) and Weber's perception of where "liberalism" leads.
2 days from a launch order to the actual fleet departure, or perhaps arrival at Grayson, which would most of a day. Still not bad for a whole fleet, even one with less than 30 ships.
To be fair, the Masadans are probably primed for an attack at this point, ready to launch the offensive on a hair-trigger basis. Also, at this time, the Masadans are only sending their hyper-capable fleet, so more like a dozen ships tops.
Are there many rabbits on Sphinx, then? You'd think in the future people would have learned not to take them everywhere sans foresight. Then again, most Sphinxian life we've heard of consists of 6-legged lynxes, pumas, and polar bears. Oh, and some fish. Maybe the locals will be okay after all.
Nimitz having never tasted rabbit in the wild suggests the opposite- it's NOT common on Sphinx.

Also, Sphinx has very harsh, cold, lengthy winters, which would tend to kill off a lot of the ground cover rabbits like to nibble on; I'm not sure it'd be a viable ecosystem for them unless we're dealing with Arctic hares or something else that's good at handling long periods with minimal grazing.
Interesting, I've heard this argument before, that a strong military in and of itself serves as provocation to one's neighbors, or at least a threat they have to honor. Usually it's a strawman of people who said such things during the Cold War, in this context it makes a certain sense given the pseudo-Napoleonic styling of the early series. Who else puts so much effort into a true first-rate navy?

Oh, and once again everyone but the Centrists are blind to the inevitability of Haven continuing to expand as it has for decades. Naturally the above 'He' can refer only to Reggie Houseman.
Calling back to the (written 20 years later) stuff I've already quoted, we see this as the logical conclusion of the political struggles of the mid-19th century in Manticore, and of all the same members of the Everyone But Centrist intelligentsia having basically experienced no turnover thanks to prolong. They're still, mentally, living in the world of the 1840s when it was possible to think of Haven as something other than a massive conquering blob.
So industry is job one for the Alliance, expansion of the navy and orbital infrastructure.
Grayson is hugely behind the curve in industrial technology- which is why they have such a massively labor-intensive industrial base. They have basically no nanotechnology or gravitics; in a real sense, they're stuck in hard SF while everyone else is in soft SF. It's not that simple, but that's a good approximation.
Naturally Reggie has to stick his foot in his mouth by suggesting they make business not war. I am curious what he means by over-populated for their productive capability. Does that mean there are too many people and not enough industrial tech to support them, or that Masada has a powerful industry hurting for new markets?
They have a large population (including masses of ignorant crazies in the back-country), but relatively little industry, and what industry there is is basically supporting the military in a hardcore fundamentalist command economy.

Grayson has a higher standard of living.
Ah, I'm guessing then that he didn't mean the Masadan economy is over-strong earlier. Masada has spent 20 years (since their last defeat) funneling more than a third of their GDP into the military. I do believe that's close enough to a total war footing. Not sure why any of this is a surprise to the economist. Though I will understand he might not have considered that some ships are just better than others, or function in limited roles. Just not if he pretends to be a "student of military history."
I can believe that he's met babbling ignoramuses like this. What I can't believe is that one of them would end up in a position of responsibility, or even be appointed to one by a minority political party.

Then again, he's not necessarily more at odds with the facts of his surroundings than, well, Senator Ted Cruz. ;)
Ah Weber, can't you give us someone who disagrees with your heroes but is neither a moron nor a coward? Oh, right. Theisman. Well, thanks for that, I guess.
Sigh, yeah.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Batman »

I'm not sure I agree with the 'basically no gravitics'. They don't have it to the extent Manticore (or Haven, or the Solarian League) have it which includes using it in sidearms, yes, but they clearly have artificial gravity, they have inertial compensators (better ones than the Manticorans if it weren't for their backwards tech base), they have impeller/sail drive, they have gravitic detection of the signatures of that drive. Again, nothing with the performance of what the Honorverse '1st World' has, but gravitics are definitely a common element in Grayson's spacegoing endeavors at the very least.
Completely pointless nitpick @Gahriman-CLs, not CAs.
'Next time I let Superman take charge, just hit me. Real hard.'
'You're a princess from a society of immortal warriors. I'm a rich kid with issues. Lots of issues.'
'No. No dating for the Batman. It might cut into your brooding time.'
'Tactically we have multiple objectives. So we need to split into teams.'-'Dibs on the Amazon!'
'Hey, we both have a Martian's phone number on our speed dial. I think I deserve the benefit of the doubt.'
'You know, for a guy with like 50 different kinds of vision, you sure are blind.'
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Terralthra »

Yeah, they have gravitics. They don't have nanotechnology, of any kind, whether that be chem-catalyst welding, molecular circuitry (molycircs), or any of the other miniaturization the "first galaxy" powers take for granted.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Eh

OK, it's not that they have absolutely zero gravitics, but their gravitics technology is very recently adopted (about a generation ago), and hasn't penetrated into the civilian economy yet, which creates all kind of costs and burdens when it comes to keeping up space infrastructure.

We see the implications of this (and the nanotech) in Flag in Exile, when Manticoran investment and technology makes possible weird and sophisticated stuff Grayson could never try before, like just building gigantic transparent domes out of advanced nanotech-created materials to cover over very large areas of land on Grayson's surface and keep out the contaminated atmosphere.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Terralthra »

As far as I recall, no gravitic technology was required to create the Skydomes. That was just the materials technology. Countergrav in civilian applications may've made it easier to initially construct, but it wasn't actively supporting the weight once built.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Strictly true, though it's a lot easier to loft big glass panels into position in a multimile dome structure when you can do it with a tractor/pressor beam.

I think my point is that Weber actually does try to show, in concrete ways, what a big difference there is between Grayson's current industrial-technical base and what Manticore can provide. And that this includes entirely different ways of doing basic tasks, like the nanotech and personal gravitics.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by chornedsnorkack »

Simon_Jester wrote:
p. 28 wrote:...He [Roger] had much more sympathy for the rank-and-file members of the Liberal Party, but their refusal to look beyond their own narrow political horizons was eroding that steadily. Marisa Turner, the Earl of New Kiev's older daughter, was a case in point. The only thing wrong with her brain, in Roger's opinion, was her refusal to actually use it,yet her birth, wealth, and her father's position in the party meant she was inevitably going to become one of the LIberals' leaders over the next ten to fifteen T-years, and she flatly refused to admit Haven could possibly have any territorial interests outside its immediate astrographic neighborhood.
Little Marisa is going to grow up to be the head of the Liberal Party in the timeframe of the main novel series, and hoo boy is she a piece of work, leading her own party into disaster after repeated pigheaded attempts to ignore the obvious and generally play the 'stupid liberal' stereotype to the hilt.

Note that the Earl of New Kiev, and his daughter the Countess, are leading figures in the Liberal Party despite being unelected members of the House of Lords. The Lords are the dominant chamber of Manticore's legislature. They write appropriations bills (in the US the House of Representatives does this), budget and tax laws (likewise), have final approval over any amended form of those bills, and moreover the Prime Minister has to come from the Lords, not the Commons.

So the Lords are the dominant branch of Parliament in Manticore; to quote Weber's own infodump site: "Ultimately, the powers of the Lords trump the power of the Commons, which was precisely how the Founders (who were all about to become nobles under the new Constitution) wanted things set up." The practical result of that is that politics in the Lords dominates Manticore's military and diplomatic posture, but since the Lords never come up for reelection, members of the Conservative and Liberal parties in the Lords are free to be complete fucking morons and still retain their seats. It's enough to make you (or Queen Elizabeth III) want to pound your head on the wall.

Lord Grantville institutes reforms in 1920 PD intended to change this, when he replaces the disastrous High Ridge goverment, but those changes are only beginning to take effect as of the latest novels in the series.


Also, more comments on how the unelected nature of the House of Lords means that it's easier for the Manticoran political parties to wind up with foolish leadership. Because the core of a party's strength is usually in the Lords, it doesn't really matter if they screw up or do something dumb, because their support base in the Lords is still there. Elected politicians have to be cannier about this sort of thing.

One consequence of this is that the 'sensible' faction in Manticoran politics has to endlessly refight the same battles, with the same people, over the same issues. Because no matter how many times an idea is discredited in Manticoran politics, it never really dies until there are no longer enough votes in the House of Lords to support it.

That's a thing I've largely forgotten in the years since I read the series intensively is just how much Manticore's political hierarchy handicapped it. It's pretty clear that after the end of the Pierre regime, the reborn Republic of Haven probably has the better government!

Shifts in the Manticoran cabinet. The monarchy can't get the cabinet they wish they had, because with three major and two minor political parties, all with significant representation in the Lords, it is practically impossible to form anything but a coalition government. As a result, the Liberal and Conservative parties can usually get senior members as cabinet officials of just about any government, even a nominally Centrist/Crown Loyalist one with results ranging from "consensus politics good" to "gridlock and idiots in high places bad."
A few observations:
1) In any democratic country, the voters are unelected, hereditary by the virtue of having been born citizens.
Meaning that they are free to be complete morons, and still keep their votes. Strictly speaking, seriously mentally handicapped or otherwise insane people are formally barred from voting and running their own business, but that is a fraction of % in most countries. Still, one can be much below average intelligence and still be a voter.
Elected politicians cannot be morons - even the voters who are morons can be persuaded to vote for intelligent politicians cynically catering for morons, rather than for politicians who actually are themselves morons.
2) In an unelected, hereditary House of Lords, why would the Lords keep party discipline? They owe their posts to birth, not electors and much less to any party machine. Just like a voter is free to switch his vote to a different party whenever the voter is persuaded, so are the Lords.
Whereas elected representatives of Commons may be merely appointees selected by their party for the constituency - so that the party could deselect them, and the defecting MP would not be able to take his voters along and get elected by the same voters to another party.
And of course, if the parties are unable to have discipline, why have parties at all, rather than loose informal groupings shifting with the issue at vote?
3) Why would birth and wealth and father´s position make Marisa Turner a political leader?

A voter in a democracy is only allowed to participate in politics at ballot box every few years. The members of UK Commons, on the other hand, have at least since 18th century been expected to work at Commons most of their working days.
Also at least since 18th century, the UK Lords have not been effectively sanctioned for not attending. Those who do attend, do so out of hobby.
What makes a complete moron, in Manticore Lords, a frontbencher/leader in Lords rather than a backbencher?
In English Lords, since ancient times, Lords have had equal vote per person - a Duke with 8 titles total still has same vote as a baron with a single title. Do the Lords of Manticore have unequal votes, that would make some of them political heavyweights irrespective of personal popularity?

4) The first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all voting system of England and USA has the effect of amplifying majorities and squeezing out third parties. It actually would squeeze out second parties as well... look at Electoral College. In a century, over 26 elections since 1912, only 8 runners-up have got 1/3 of the College votes - 5 of the presidents got over 90% of electors (Roosevelt 1936 had 8 against out of 531, Johnson 1964 has 52 against out of 538, Nixon 1972 17 against, Reagan 1980 49 against and 1984 13 against).

True, you STILL can have 3rd parties if your voters are concentrated. SNP and the Irish Sinn Fein and Unionists easily hold their seats, whereas the far more numerous Liberals are usually nonentity because their votes are scattered and not a majority anywhere.

Whereas proportional voting means minorities will get elected, so naturally you need coalitions.
On the other hand proportional voting exactly requires the existence of parties (in a majoritarian system, an independent candidate can have the local recognition to beat party appointees, just like local parties can).

So, in a dominant House of Lords like Manticore, you might expect a massive cross-bench to dominate the politics.

How do Manticore lords vote? Equally, or unequally? And how does party discipline work - what are the effects of the lords who desire to cross the floor, or be cross-benchers?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Ahriman238 »

"Sorry to wake you, Raoul." His soft Grayson accent was clipped. "Tracking just picked up a hyper footprint thirty light-minutes from Yeltsin. A big one."
Detection of hyper footprint at 38 light-minutes with Grayson hardware.

"What do you have on impeller signatures?"

"That's mighty far out for us." Yanakov sounded a bit embarrassed. "We're trying to refine our data, but—"

"Pass the locus to Commander Alvarez," Courvosier interrupted. "Madrigal's sensor suite is better than anything you've got. Maybe he can refine it for you."
Madrigal can make out more of the impeller signatures at this range than the entire Grayson navy and detection net.

Printers chattered madly as the admirals arrived at Command Central, and the two of them turned as one to the main display board. A dot of light crept across it with infinitesimal speed. That was a trick of scale—any display capable of showing a half light-hour radius had to compress things—but at least gravitic detectors were FTL so they could watch it in real time. For all the good it was likely to do them.

Madrigal had, indeed, gotten her CIC tied into the net. The board couldn't display individual impeller sources at such a long range, but the data codes beside the single blotch of light were far too detailed for Grayson instrumentation. That was Courvosier's first thought; his second was a stab of dismay, and he pursed his lips silently. There were ten ships out there, accelerating from the low velocity imposed by translation into normal space. Not even Madrigal could "see" them well enough to identify individual ships, but the impeller strengths allowed tentative IDs by class. And if Commander Alvarez's sensor crews were right, they were four light cruisers and six destroyers—more tonnage than the entire Grayson hyper-capable fleet.
Gravity sensors are FTL, real-time over a system's distance. This will be important later. The Masadan Navy in it's glory. For whatever reason, every scene in the GSN command center mentions the background noise of printers.

"Coming down on three million kilometers."

Jansen nodded. His missiles were slower than Thunder of God's. Their drives would burn out in less than a minute, and their maximum acceleration was barely thirty thousand gravities, but his fleet's closing speed was over 27,000 KPS. His missiles would take seventy-eight seconds to reach their targets from that initial velocity; Orbit Four's missiles would take a minute and a half to reach him. Only a twelve-second difference—but unlike asteroids, his ships could dodge.
Like I said once, launching from a stationary ship gets a missile a million klicks, launching from a ship doing half the speed of light gets you even further, 3 million for slow Masadan missiles on a relatively leisurely attack run, and they're apparently inside their optimal firing range. Of course, fixed positions don't get this range advantage.

One thing I remember a lot of fretting over in the second and third books is the 'c fractional strike' where a warship gets most of a system's running start to get to max accel, then launches missiles at light-speed (or rather, close enough as makes little practical difference) rendering them impossible to intercept.
The missile was an orphan from Captain Hill's third and final salvo. In fact, it should have been from his second salvo, but its launch crew had suffered a momentary loss of power. By the time the frantic techs got their weapon back on line, their bird launched almost five seconds after the third salvo, and all of them were dead by the time it entered attack range. The orphan neither knew nor cared about that. It drove forward, still under power while its sensors listened to the beacon of its chosen target. The Masadan defensive systems almost missed the single missile entirely, then assigned it a far lower threat value as it tagged along behind the others.

-snip-

The two counter-missiles targeted on it flashed past, clear misses without the better seeking heads of more modern navies, and its target's sensors, half-blinded by the artificial grav wave of its own belly stress band, lost lock. There was no last-minute laser fire, and the missile bobbed up, programmed for a frontal attack, and threw every erg of drive power it still had into crushing deceleration. There wasn't time to kill much velocity, even at 30,000 gees—but it was enough.
The unprotected, wide open throat of the light cruiser Abraham's impeller wedge engulfed the warhead like a vast scoop. Primary and backup proximity fuses flashed as one, and a fifty-megaton explosion erupted one hundred meters from the Masadan flagship.
The Little Missile that Could.

So missile defense computers automatically prioritize, for the Masadans at least this is done mainly by proximity, closest missile is first up. Also, it seems Grayson missiles have half again the accel of their Masadan counterparts, implying a significant tech-disparity. Still only about a third that of modern missiles.

Of Orbital 4's desperate 3 salvos, only two missiles hit, doing minor damage to a destroyer, and killing the Masadan flagship cruiser. Not bad for a refinery/smelters.
Orbit Four had been joined by Orbit Five and Six, and neither of their commandants had gotten as lucky as Hill. Or, rather, the Masadans had gotten smarter. They were launching from six million kilometers or more, ranges so long the defensive missiles' drives burned out over five full minutes short of their targets. It gave the defenders longer tracking times and better point defense kill probabilities, yet sheer numbers more than made up for that by saturating the defenses. It might cost the Masadans a lot of missiles, but Grayson had already lost nine percent of its orbital resource processing capacity . . . not to mention twenty-six hundred uniformed defenders and sixteen thousand civilian workers.
The Masadan's switch to missile spam at 6 million klicks. It mentions the defender's missiles burning out, but not the attackers so I guess that's still within the bounds of their powered envelope while moving at speed.

Each orbital (well, belt) processing center represents 3% of the whole, so I'm guessing there's 33 or so.
"You know," the Manticoran admiral mused, looking out through the glass wall across the bustling battle staff, "there's something peculiar about this whole attack pattern." He turned to face Yanakov. "Why aren't they either pulling completely out of the system or continuing straight along the belt?"
So you'll engage them at the point they keep returning to and get ambushed by their modern Haven warships. Of course, they assume that there are fleet tenders/colliers out there which is logical enough. There really ought to be, with the rate they seem to be blowing through their magazines.
"All right. Your orbital sensor arrays give you real-time gravitic detection out to thirty-four light-minutes—eight light-minutes beyond the belt on their normal retirement vector. More than that, the Masadans know they do."

"Well, yes." Yanakov scrubbed at burning eyes, then rose and walked across to stand beside his friend and watch the display. "Of course, there's a lot of transmission lag from the more distant arrays—especially those on the far side of Yeltsin—but they're working our side of the primary, so Command Central's got real-time data where it really matters. That's why they pull back out beyond our detection range after each raid, pick a new attack vector, and come charging back in. As you say, our shipboard sensors have very limited range compared to yours. Even if we happened to guess right and place a force where it could intercept them, its commander couldn't see them soon enough to generate an intercept, and we probably couldn't pass him light-speed orders from Command Central in time for him to do it, either."
Grayson uses orbital sensor platforms to maintain a 34 light-minute blanket, large enough for signal delay to be a problem. Last time for a while we'll see system commanders struggling to deal with comm delays. Til the Sollies get in, in fact.

It was odd, Courvosier thought. Manticoran destroyers had excellent sensor suites for their displacement, but they were hardly superdreadnoughts. Yet at this moment, Madrigal was the closest thing around. She was a pygmy beside Honor's Fearless, much less a battlecruiser or ship-of-the-wall, but she massed barely twelve thousand tons less than Yanakov's flagship, and her command and control facilities, like her firepower, were light-seconds beyond the best the Graysons could boast.
Manticoran destroyers apparently have really good sensors for a ship their size. This is probably because of Manticore's emphasis on trade protection, they did mention wanting Madrigal to sniff out trouble for the convoy. Also, Grayson cruisers are pretty small.

Neither Endicott nor Yeltsin had been able to attract significant outside help until the Haven-Manticore confrontation spilled over on them. Both were crushingly impoverished; no one in his right mind voluntarily immigrated to an environment like Grayson's; and Masada's theocratic totalitarians didn't even want outsiders. Under the circumstances, the Graysons had made up a phenomenal amount of ground in the two centuries since their rediscovery by the galaxy at large, but there were still holes, and some of them were gaping ones.

Grayson fusion plants were four times as massive as modern reactors of similar output (which was why they still used so many fission plants), and their military hardware was equally out of date—they still used printed circuits, with enormous mass penalties and catastrophic consequences for designed lifetimes—though there were a few unexpected surprises in their mixed technological bag. For example, the Grayson Navy had quite literally invented its own inertial compensator thirty T-years ago because it hadn't been able to get anyone else to explain how it was done. It was a clumsy, bulky thing, thanks to the components they had to use, but from what he'd seen of its stats, it might just be marginally more efficient than Manticore's.
Some of the reasons even after reconnecting with the wider galaxy some time ago, both systems are still playing catch-up. Grayson uses printed circuits, as I believe we do in the present, as opposed to "molycircs" that cram a lot more capacity into negligible space. Their fusion reactors are 4x larger than everyone else's, hence why they still use so much fission. Also, first mention of Grayson's superior compensators.

For all that, their energy weapons were pitiful by modern standards, and their missiles were almost worse. Their point defense missiles used reaction drives, for God's sake! That had stunned Courvosier—until he discovered that their smallest impeller missile massed over a hundred and twenty tons. That was fifty percent more than a Manticoran ship-killer, much less a point defense missile, which explained why they had to accept shorter-ranged, less capable counter missiles. At least they were small enough to carry in worthwhile numbers, and it wasn't quite as bad as it might have been, if only because the missiles they had to stop were so limited. Grayson missiles were slow, short-legged, and myopic. Worse, they required direct hits, and their penaids might as well not exist. They weren't even in shouting range of Madrigal's systems, and the destroyer could take any three Grayson—or Masadan—light cruisers in a stand-up fight.
And then there's the pitiful state of local weaponry, and actually understating the mass thing. Manticore ship-killers vary by class but are in the neighborhood of 75 tons (at least this is how they're inevitably mentioned collectively) so 120 is a big difference. Add the lack of laser heads and penaids... Well, it's a good thing Honor wasn't actually unstable enough to declare war on Grayson, Fearless would finish them in an afternoon.

Which, he reflected grimly, might be just as well in the next several hours, for something still bothered him about the entire Masadan operational pattern. It was too predictable, too . . . stupid. Of course, closing to three million klicks before engaging Orbit Four hadn't exactly been a gem of genius, either, but the Graysons and Masadans had fought their last war with chem-fuel missiles and no inertial compensators at all. Their capabilities had leapt ahead by eight centuries or so in the last thirty-five years, so perhaps closing that way resulted from simple inexperience with their new weapons mix.
Much has changed, and both Grayson and Masadan are still reeling from the leap forward in technology, clinging to the traditions that are most important to them. Of course, this time Courvosier really is drastically underestimating the Masadans.

Left to his own devices, Yu would have preferred a direct, frontal assault, trusting Thunder's missile batteries to annihilate any defenders before they ever reached their own combat range of her. But for all their vocal faith in their own perfection as God's Chosen, what passed for Masada's General Staff held the Grayson military in almost superstitious dread. They seemed unaware of the true extent of the advantage Thunder gave them, but then, most of them had been very junior officers during Masada's last attempt to conquer Yeltsin's Star. That had been the sort of disaster even the most competent military people tended to remember with dread . . . and most of the senior officers who'd launched it and escaped death at Grayson hands had found it from the Church their failure had "betrayed." The consequences to fleet morale and training had been entirely predictable, and Yu had to concede that the present Grayson Navy was at least half again as efficient as his own allies.
Grayson Navy, though smaller, is worth more in absolute terms than the Masadan (excluding recent foreign purchases.) The fact that they always lose against Grayson, and failure is punished by death, doesn't exactly engender confidence in the men.
And, in a way, Yu was just as happy his energy weapons would be out of it. His jamming and other precautions should make it almost impossible for even the Manticorans to localize him if he used only missiles, but energy fire could be back-plotted far too precisely, and hiding his ships had required him to shut down his own drives, which deprived him of any sidewalls. Besides, Principality was one of the new city-class destroyers. She was short on energy weapons . . . but she packed a missile broadside most light cruisers might envy.
Haven city destroyer has enough missile tubes to throw a light-cruiser's missile broadside. Interesting contrast to the sensor-heavy search and destroy model of the Manticoran equivalent.

Admiral Courvosier checked the numbers once more and frowned, for the current Masadan maneuvers baffled him. They were obviously trying to avoid action, but on their current course the Grayson task force would overtake well before they reached the .8 C speed limit imposed by their particle shielding. That meant they couldn't run away from Yanakov in normal space, yet they were already up to something like .46 C, much too high for a survivable Alpha translation, and if they kept this nonsense up much longer, they'd put themselves in a position where he would overrun them in short order if they tried to decelerate to a safe translation speed.
Hint: it's a trap. This happens all the time in this series, the enemy does something that cannot reasonably be explained by your knowledge of their capabilities and goals. This seems like a good time to start worrying and re-examining your assumptions, yet only the intelligent characters so much as get confused, the rest seem to accept that the enemy is screwing up or panicking or something and move on. Now this isn't unrealistic. Quite the contrary, it's highly realistic in a depressing way.

The destroyers Ararat and Judah vanished in savage flashes. They were the flankers, closest to the incoming fire. It reached them thirteen seconds sooner than it did Madrigal, and they never had a chance. They'd barely begun to roll their wedges up to interdict when the incoming missiles detonated, and they carried laser heads—clusters of bomb-pumped X-ray lasers that didn't need the direct hits Grayson missiles required. They had a stand-off range of over twenty thousand kilometers, and every primitive point defense system aboard the destroyers had been trained in the wrong direction.
2 Grayson destroyer's down, 20,000 km range for laser-heads.

Courvosier nodded and his mind raced even as Madrigal's counter missiles went out once more. This time her human personnel knew what was happening as well as her computers did; that should have made her fire even more effective, but she was spread thinner, trying to protect her consorts as well as herself. There were almost as many missiles in this salvo—with fewer targets to spread themselves among—and whoever had planned their targeting clearly knew what Madrigal was. The missile pattern was obviously a classic double broadside from something fairly powerful—probably a light cruiser—and he'd allocated six of the birds in his second launch to Madrigal. Whether it was an all-out bid for a kill or only an effort to drive her anti-missile systems back into self-defense was immaterial.
The missile heavy destroyer, going purely by it;s missiles, is judged a light-cruiser. I guess it really does have a CLs broadside. At this point Madrigal is providing missile defense for the whole task force, so 6 missiles are a genuine threat.

Even as Courvosier replied, two missiles slashed in on the damaged David. The destroyer's outclassed defenses nailed one of them; the other popped up to cross her starboard quarter at less than five hundred kilometers. The sides of her impeller wedge were protected by the focused grav fields of her sidewalls—far more vulnerable than the wedge's "roof" and "floor," but powerful enough to blunt the heaviest energy weapon at anything above pointblank range. But this was pointblank for the laser head . . . and Grayson sidewalls were weak by modern standards.

A half-dozen beams ripped at David's sidewall. It bent and degraded them as it clawed at their photons, and the radiation shielding inside the wedge blunted them a bit more, but not enough.
Three of them got through, and the destroyer belched air. Her impeller wedge flashed—then died as the ship broke almost squarely in half. Her forward section vanished in an eye-tearing glare as her fusion plant's mag bottle went, and her frantically accelerating sisters left the madly spinning derelict of her after hull—and any survivors who might still cling to life within it—astern as they raced for salvation.
Modern missiles can simply one-shot Grayson destroyers. Then again, Grayson missiles can apparently one-shot Masadan cruisers, so perhaps they're really fragile agianst their own weapons too.

"I'm not sure what hit us, Sir, but assuming they both fired double broadsides, I'd guess one was a light cruiser. The other was bigger—maybe a heavy cruiser. They're both modern ships. We couldn't get a read on them, but they have to be Havenite. I wish we could tell you more, but—"
Again with Theisman's destroyer mistaken fro a cruiser.

The signal died. GNS Covington went back to full power, racing desperately for safety while her single remaining destroyer covered her wounded flank, and there was silence on her bridge.

Astern of her, HMS Madrigal turned alone to face the foe.
Last stand of Madrigal, to cover the retreat of the Grayson Navy's only non-LAC survivors, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

chornedsnorkack wrote:A few observations:
1) In any democratic country, the voters are unelected, hereditary by the virtue of having been born citizens.
Meaning that they are free to be complete morons, and still keep their votes. Strictly speaking, seriously mentally handicapped or otherwise insane people are formally barred from voting and running their own business, but that is a fraction of % in most countries. Still, one can be much below average intelligence and still be a voter.
Elected politicians cannot be morons - even the voters who are morons can be persuaded to vote for intelligent politicians cynically catering for morons, rather than for politicians who actually are themselves morons.
The thing about an unelected electorate is that it's large, subject to continuous demographic shifts, and is by definition not insulated from public opinion. An unelected legislature is the opposite.
2) In an unelected, hereditary House of Lords, why would the Lords keep party discipline? They owe their posts to birth, not electors and much less to any party machine. Just like a voter is free to switch his vote to a different party whenever the voter is persuaded, so are the Lords.
Whereas elected representatives of Commons may be merely appointees selected by their party for the constituency - so that the party could deselect them, and the defecting MP would not be able to take his voters along and get elected by the same voters to another party.
And of course, if the parties are unable to have discipline, why have parties at all, rather than loose informal groupings shifting with the issue at vote?
Well, my impression is honestly that self-selecting demographic shifts as individual Lords cross the aisle in response to the perceived stupidity of 'their' party. The actual structure of the parties probably has a lot to do with social circles and people who've grown up together among the nobility sharing basically the same political views for decades. That may also be the main deterrent to crossing the aisle- it's a prolong society, you're turning your back on people you've known for a century or so.

High Ridge basically keeps control of the Conservatives through a combination of:
1) Being the only faction of the Lords who can be relied on to stick up for the Lords' privileges in a, well, conservative way.
2) Having massive blackmail files, no I am not making this up.

The Liberals are a bit looser in organization; I get the feeling that Weber pictures them as having a lot of 'fashionably concerned' yet ignorant aristos among their ranks. Most of their support base is in the Commons anyway.
3) Why would birth and wealth and father´s position make Marisa Turner a political leader?
Probably because the actual internal mechanics of a "party" in the Lords consists of the aforementioned social circle and ties, so being the daughter of someone with standing can actually give you a meaningful leg up as long as you don't completely spazz out and lose it... which, come to think of it, Turner eventually does.

Even so, it's her enemies who think she's an idiot, and it's not like there isn't a substantial fraction of the Manticoran population who (by author fiat) agrees with her. She didn't seem unpopular among her own ranks until the political crises brought on during the ceasefire era.
So, in a dominant House of Lords like Manticore, you might expect a massive cross-bench to dominate the politics.

How do Manticore lords vote? Equally, or unequally? And how does party discipline work - what are the effects of the lords who desire to cross the floor, or be cross-benchers?
It seems to be equal, Lords who desire to cross-bench seem to be able to do so, but I think Weber is positing a lot of inertia so that such cross-benchings don't happen very often. The seniormost noble families do effectively get two votes, one for the title-holder and one for the cadet seat, but that's about it.

The main reason there's no massive cross-bench, I think, is that by the time the main series starts the political lines have been very polarized by Roger III and Elizabeth III's aggressive military buildup and strong anti-Havenite stance. Most people who see the Havenite threat as preeminent are in the Centrists, most people who see the domestic position of the Lords as preeminent are in the Conservatives, most of the Winton loyalists are Crown Loyalists, and most of the populists are with the Liberals or Progressives.

While I'm sure there's shift back and forth, most of the actual people in the Lords have been there for decades and move slowly if at all on these issues.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Ahriman238 wrote:Gravity sensors are FTL, real-time over a system's distance. This will be important later. The Masadan Navy in it's glory. For whatever reason, every scene in the GSN command center mentions the background noise of printers.
Probably because the book was written in 1993 or so, when it was impressive to contrast the paper-using Graysons with the "paperless office" Manties.
Like I said once, launching from a stationary ship gets a missile a million klicks, launching from a ship doing half the speed of light gets you even further, 3 million for slow Masadan missiles on a relatively leisurely attack run, and they're apparently inside their optimal firing range. Of course, fixed positions don't get this range advantage.
Which is frustrating; they should. After all, the fixed defense can fire missiles into the volume the enemy ship will occupy in two or three minutes' time, and the enemy ships can't dodge fast enough to avoid plowing straight into the oncoming missiles. If you ask me, in effect this means they recover the attacker's range advantage to a large extent.
So you'll engage them at the point they keep returning to and get ambushed by their modern Haven warships. Of course, they assume that there are fleet tenders/colliers out there which is logical enough. There really ought to be, with the rate they seem to be blowing through their magazines.
Maybe there are, but they were sent away when the Havenite ships detected the Grayson ships coming out to intercept?
Haven city destroyer has enough missile tubes to throw a light-cruiser's missile broadside. Interesting contrast to the sensor-heavy search and destroy model of the Manticoran equivalent.
Well, the RMN does missile destroyers too, observe the Havoc-class I referenced back in August.
The missile heavy destroyer, going purely by it;s missiles, is judged a light-cruiser. I guess it really does have a CLs broadside. At this point Madrigal is providing missile defense for the whole task force, so 6 missiles are a genuine threat.
Six tubes is, yes, credible for a CL- the Courageous-class only has seven and is missile-heavy; the beam-heavy Apollo has only five.

One thing to factor in is that the Havenite "destroyer" may actually be as large as one of the older, smaller light cruiser classes- tonnage is flexible in the Honorverse. A destroyer is as a destroyer does.
Modern missiles can simply one-shot Grayson destroyers. Then again, Grayson missiles can apparently one-shot Masadan cruisers, so perhaps they're really fragile agianst their own weapons too.
Since the warhead on the Grayson missiles is probably a fifty-megaton shaped charge or something of that sort, yes, it'll blow away damn near anything.

My way of filling this in- pre-laser head missiles are actually more powerful, but the advent of effective point defense lasers and impeller-drive countermissiles made it practically impossible to get into their standoff range. Thus, the missiles were powerful but had an incredibly poor hit probability. A destroyer or cruiser hit by one had basically no chance of survival

In the mid-1800s Post Diaspora, efforts were made to increase the standoff range of the "sidewall burner" mode to deliver megaton-range hits from ranges of up to ten thousand kilometers. This improved the hit probability, by at least putting the attacking missile out of effective range of the enemy's defensive autocannon. But since laser clusters and countermissiles were already proliferated, mature technology, this was not decisive.

The laser head doubled standoff range again, finally giving an attacking missile a hit probability of, well, about 1 if it could get into attack range. On the other hand, they were also less powerful, such that it made sense to design even light ships to resist them, to some degree.

The Graysons have copious masses of missile defenses designed to cope with the Masadan missiles (which probably have to fly within a few hundred kilometers), and are presumably designed to shoot down said missiles before they detonate because it's impossible to 'tank' a hit from such a weapon. Moreover, they lack the nanotech materials Manticore has, so they just plain can't armor a ship effectively against even kiloton-range beams all that well- the ships aren't actually heavier than a real life aircraft carrier, so try to imagine the sort of materials it'd take to make an aircraft carrier immune to near misses from tactical nuclear warheads and you'll see the Graysons' problem.

Modern Havenite missiles totally bypass the Grayson defenses, and the Graysons simply don't (can't) armor their warships well enough to withstand a hit from a serious modern beam weapon, be it a missile attack or a shipboard beam mount.
"I'm not sure what hit us, Sir, but assuming they both fired double broadsides, I'd guess one was a light cruiser. The other was bigger—maybe a heavy cruiser. They're both modern ships. We couldn't get a read on them, but they have to be Havenite. I wish we could tell you more, but—"
Again with Theisman's destroyer mistaken fro a cruiser.
More importantly, Yu's battlecruiser (which fired one broadside) is mistaken for a heavy cruiser that fired two broadsides at once. This mistake has far more far-reaching consequences.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Crazedwraith »

There something from Ahriman's 2nd most recent update that I wanted to comment on.
And LACs, Mr. Houseman, are even less capable in combat than their tonnage might suggest because their sidewalls are much weaker than those of starships
So this one puzzled me for a while. Because I was thinking, surely scaled to a starship, shouldn't a LAC be more combat effective per ton of mass? After all, they don't have to devote some of that mass to FTL components like warshawski sails, (sorry, guessed at spelling there). So there's more mass for weapons/shields for combat.

Then I was thinking that it made more sense as in context he's talking about entire fleets rather than as an individual unit. So if you have x tons of tonnage your better off with 4 destroyers rather than 20 LACs or whatever. Given the comment about sidewalls I guess I have to wonder if the strength of systems like that scale linearly with the mass you can devote to them. If a sidewall twice the mass is actually three times as resilient to fire...

edit and from the latest update;

Hint: it's a trap. This happens all the time in this series, the enemy does something that cannot reasonably be explained by your knowledge of their capabilities and goals. This seems like a good time to start worrying and re-examining your assumptions, yet only the intelligent characters so much as get confused, the rest seem to accept that the enemy is screwing up or panicking or something and move on. Now this isn't unrealistic. Quite the contrary, it's highly realistic in a depressing way.
I think this even more prevalent in the section you skimmed over where Coursviour figures out their attack plan. He specifically notes that they're returning to a single location consistently and that the Masadans must know that the Graysons can see them doing it. Yet this second part does not seem to be taken into account afterwards.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Terralthra »

Crazedwraith wrote:There something from Ahriman's 2nd most recent update that I wanted to comment on.
And LACs, Mr. Houseman, are even less capable in combat than their tonnage might suggest because their sidewalls are much weaker than those of starships
So this one puzzled me for a while. Because I was thinking, surely scaled to a starship, shouldn't a LAC be more combat effective per ton of mass? After all, they don't have to devote some of that mass to FTL components like warshawski sails, (sorry, guessed at spelling there). So there's more mass for weapons/shields for combat.

Then I was thinking that it made more sense as in context he's talking about entire fleets rather than as an individual unit. So if you have x tons of tonnage your better off with 4 destroyers rather than 20 LACs or whatever. Given the comment about sidewalls I guess I have to wonder if the strength of systems like that scale linearly with the mass you can devote to them. If a sidewall twice the mass is actually three times as resilient to fire...
More than that, not everything scales down to as small as you might want it to. There's a minimum size you can make a ("grav-focused") fusion plant in the Honorverse. A fusion plant of the minimum size will probably power more than you can squeeze into an LAC, but if you make it a bigger LAC, you'll end up with an LAC which is less maneuverable than a smaller LAC, in which case your LACs lose to other LACs (since they're largely dependent on fleetness to win engagements, given their "eggshells with hammers" status), but they'd still be eggshells to any "real" ship.

This is why the Shrikes are disbelieved at first: in order to make an LAC capable of moving (impeller nodes and the internals associated with them have a minimum size which scales to be smaller, relative to the ship's mass, as it gets bigger; sidewall generators likewise), firing its hellaciously overpowered graser (minimum size there, too), crew spaces, life support, etc. (again, there's only so small you can make this), and squeeze in the fusion plant necessary to run it, was simply judged impossible.
Crazedwraith wrote:edit and from the latest update;

Hint: it's a trap. This happens all the time in this series, the enemy does something that cannot reasonably be explained by your knowledge of their capabilities and goals. This seems like a good time to start worrying and re-examining your assumptions, yet only the intelligent characters so much as get confused, the rest seem to accept that the enemy is screwing up or panicking or something and move on. Now this isn't unrealistic. Quite the contrary, it's highly realistic in a depressing way.
I think this even more prevalent in the section you skimmed over where Coursviour figures out their attack plan. He specifically notes that they're returning to a single location consistently and that the Masadans must know that the Graysons can see them doing it. Yet this second part does not seem to be taken into account afterwards.
To be fair, had the Masadans not had Thunder of God and Principality, they would be completely incapable of seeing the Grayson fleet set course to intercept their next attack, nor would they be able to sneak an ambushing force to intercept. Since the Graysons and Madrigal don't know about the modern warships, their choices are "the Masadans are somehow setting us a trap, despite not knowing where we are, our course, or our strength" or "the Masadans are fucking up." Given the loss of Abraham to utterly avoidable counterfire, the second option isn't entirely unreasonable.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by chornedsnorkack »

Simon_Jester wrote:
chornedsnorkack wrote:A few observations:
1) In any democratic country, the voters are unelected, hereditary by the virtue of having been born citizens.
Meaning that they are free to be complete morons, and still keep their votes. Strictly speaking, seriously mentally handicapped or otherwise insane people are formally barred from voting and running their own business, but that is a fraction of % in most countries. Still, one can be much below average intelligence and still be a voter.
Elected politicians cannot be morons - even the voters who are morons can be persuaded to vote for intelligent politicians cynically catering for morons, rather than for politicians who actually are themselves morons.
The thing about an unelected electorate is that it's large, subject to continuous demographic shifts, and is by definition not insulated from public opinion. An unelected legislature is the opposite.
Number 2 is usually clearly impossible. Unless the whole legislature is immortal and also takes no new recruits, it is subject to demographic shifts.
And normally FASTER than electorate! Voters get vote by birthright while teenagers, and keep it into advanced age unless they are so demented as to be unable to run their own affairs. Teenagers have an equal vote with their living parents and grandparents all along.
In British House of Lords, with titles that are hereditary, one in family, children with living father usually cannot vote even in their middle age. Meaning demographic shifts are much faster - the time any one average voter spends in Lords is shorter. The only young people in Lords are orphans, entitled to vote age 21.
There was a feature called "writ of acceleration" that allowed the Government to appoint heirs of Lords to sit and vote without needing to create a new hereditary peerage for the son. But it was optional for the Government, and politically motivated. In any case, a legislature appointed for life, or elected for life, is more responsive to demographic shifts than electorate - simply because the politicians normally get appointed or elected sometime after a career in middle age, not at age of majority.
Due to Prolong, Manticore sometime in 19th or 20th century might be exception - old pre-Prolong parents are dead, the Prolonged people have not reached age where it would catch up with Prolong, so no one dies and therefore no one inherits. Was this the case? And then about when?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

Crazedwraith wrote:Then I was thinking that it made more sense as in context he's talking about entire fleets rather than as an individual unit. So if you have x tons of tonnage your better off with 4 destroyers rather than 20 LACs or whatever. Given the comment about sidewalls I guess I have to wonder if the strength of systems like that scale linearly with the mass you can devote to them. If a sidewall twice the mass is actually three times as resilient to fire...
That, or existing LACs* are simply below the threshold of minimum cost-effective size. We already know LACs have inferior acceleration to destroyers of the same generation (prior to the Shrike), and that's counterintuitive enough; it's much easier to swallow the same problem arising with regard to the LAC's sidewalls.

*(and at this point in the series no one has ever designed a LAC with technology as good as what the RMN has by 1900 PD...)
I think this even more prevalent in the section you skimmed over where Coursviour figures out their attack plan. He specifically notes that they're returning to a single location consistently and that the Masadans must know that the Graysons can see them doing it. Yet this second part does not seem to be taken into account afterwards.
Unfortunately, the Graysons appear to have been somewhat corrupted by a 'Masadans are stupid' meme*. Given how their culture distorts military decisionmaking in the novel, we can make inferences about what happened during the last Masadan invasion of the Yeltsin's Star system... which kind of support that meme.

*Because SURE fundies are stupid!
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

chornedsnorkack wrote:Due to Prolong, Manticore sometime in 19th or 20th century might be exception - old pre-Prolong parents are dead, the Prolonged people have not reached age where it would catch up with Prolong, so no one dies and therefore no one inherits. Was this the case? And then about when?
This is exactly the case from, oh, 1850 PD on through the entire duration of the series. Prolong was introduced to Manticore around 1800-1820 PD, so basically anyone born after 1810 PD is going to live for two hundred years, while anyone born before that will be dying of old age by 1900 or so.

By the time the main series starts, all the doddering nonagenarians and centenarians have left the House of Lords to their (nigh-immortal) heirs.
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by chornedsnorkack »

Simon_Jester wrote:The thing about an unelected electorate is that it's large, subject to continuous demographic shifts, and is by definition not insulated from public opinion.
Only by definition.
Simon_Jester wrote: The actual structure of the parties probably has a lot to do with social circles and people who've grown up together among the nobility sharing basically the same political views for decades.
Grown up together with others growing up, or grown up together with others already grown up?
Simon_Jester wrote:
How do Manticore lords vote? Equally, or unequally? And how does party discipline work - what are the effects of the lords who desire to cross the floor, or be cross-benchers?
It seems to be equal, Lords who desire to cross-bench seem to be able to do so, but I think Weber is positing a lot of inertia so that such cross-benchings don't happen very often. The seniormost noble families do effectively get two votes, one for the title-holder and one for the cadet seat, but that's about it.
I see that "cadet seat" is a seat not for a younger family branch (the usual meaning of "cadet") but for the heir. Something like the British "writ of acceleration" and "courtesy title" - the heir if adult (and heir apparent?) can sit and vote as of right, not government patronage.

How effective is the family discipline in Manticore Lords? Are the titleholding parents free to keep the vote of the heir under tight control by keeping the adult child at short purse strings, or can adult heirs of living parents vote according to their own political opinion because of financial independence (adequate personal earnings, or legally assured allowance out of family fortune beyond family head´s control) or because of secret vote?
In the lower Lords, a death of family head would replace a member, and opinions, in Lords. In the upper lords, there would be knock-on effect - the heir would be promoted to the head of family, still having the same 1 vote, and the grandparent would effectively be replaced by grandchild as voter. The holder of family voting discipline, if any, would be moved by 1 generation.
Simon_Jester wrote: The main reason there's no massive cross-bench, I think, is that by the time the main series starts the political lines have been very polarized by Roger III and Elizabeth III's aggressive military buildup and strong anti-Havenite stance. Most people who see the Havenite threat as preeminent are in the Centrists, most people who see the domestic position of the Lords as preeminent are in the Conservatives, most of the Winton loyalists are Crown Loyalists, and most of the populists are with the Liberals or Progressives.

While I'm sure there's shift back and forth, most of the actual people in the Lords have been there for decades and move slowly if at all on these issues.
The pre-Prolong generation, say birthdates 1790...1810, would have been dying out during polarization, right?

IF the parties were held together by social circles then the polarization would have been socially hurtful. The first Prolonged generation, born about 1810, would have been something like 40 when the polarization started, used while growing up to free social intercourse across party divides, but also as yet voteless. Of course, there would have been a big generation divide between lower nobles (voteless till their middle age when their parents die) and upper nobles (voteless only as long at their grandparents lived and parents held the cadet seat, then reaching the cadet seat while their agemates slightly lower in nobility are still voteless). So when they start to vote, alienation from their old friends who turned out to hold different political opinions might be very painful after these decades...

How much are the voteless young nobles (children of lower lords and adult grandchildren of higher lords) involved in politics and public opinion?
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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by tim31 »

On a related side note, I hadn't read this before and thought it'd do well to be shared. In Ovens Baked, by David Weber(but not really)
lol, opsec doesn't apply to fanfiction. -Aaron

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Re: Bit of Analysis: Honor Harrington

Post by Simon_Jester »

chornedsnorkack wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:The thing about an unelected electorate is that it's large, subject to continuous demographic shifts, and is by definition not insulated from public opinion.
Only by definition.
It's a pretty important definition- the public cannot fail to vote for what the public wants. They may not get what they want, but they always vote for it.
Simon_Jester wrote:The actual structure of the parties probably has a lot to do with social circles and people who've grown up together among the nobility sharing basically the same political views for decades.
Grown up together with others growing up, or grown up together with others already grown up?
Both, mostly the former, since the current generation of Senior People in the Honorverse are pretty much the first generation to get prolong, with a few exceptions.
I see that "cadet seat" is a seat not for a younger family branch (the usual meaning of "cadet") but for the heir. Something like the British "writ of acceleration" and "courtesy title" - the heir if adult (and heir apparent?) can sit and vote as of right, not government patronage.
I believe so.
How effective is the family discipline in Manticore Lords? Are the titleholding parents free to keep the vote of the heir under tight control by keeping the adult child at short purse strings, or can adult heirs of living parents vote according to their own political opinion because of financial independence (adequate personal earnings, or legally assured allowance out of family fortune beyond family head´s control) or because of secret vote?
Unfortunately there is no clear answer to this, so far as I know. If you asked Weber I'm sure he'd eventually write you a two thousand word essay on it.
The pre-Prolong generation, say birthdates 1790...1810, would have been dying out during polarization, right?
Yes, since the polarization took place from, oh, 1840-1890. A few of them are still alive and functional when the novels start, but not many.
IF the parties were held together by social circles then the polarization would have been socially hurtful. The first Prolonged generation, born about 1810, would have been something like 40 when the polarization started, used while growing up to free social intercourse across party divides, but also as yet voteless. Of course, there would have been a big generation divide between lower nobles (voteless till their middle age when their parents die) and upper nobles (voteless only as long at their grandparents lived and parents held the cadet seat, then reaching the cadet seat while their agemates slightly lower in nobility are still voteless). So when they start to vote, alienation from their old friends who turned out to hold different political opinions might be very painful after these decades...
Seems likely.
How much are the voteless young nobles (children of lower lords and adult grandchildren of higher lords) involved in politics and public opinion?
Good question. They seem almost invisible- Weber really did take a more or less recognizable turn-of-the-millenium social structure and superimpose a hereditary aristocracy of property-holders on it. It's not like historical societies, where the nobility had virtually all the spending money and their drunken brawls and duels dominated the social scene in the centers of culture.
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