Zipang - fleet-o-philes' paradise

[Samuel]

I haven't read the manga, but in the anime I don't recall Kusaka ever mentioning a nuke being part of his plans. Spoiler

His main initial goal is revealed to be getting Japan access to all the hidden oil in Daqing, Manchuria, which wasnt historically found until 1959.

They mention that in wiki. Of course, there are a couple problems (Soviet invasion, Chinese partisans), but it is alot easier than making a nuke.

[Adrian Laguna]

Why do you doubt the Japanese have access to how construct nuclear weapons? I believe as of now most industrialized nations have produced their own sets of engineering documents to make them. That they don't is a political choice, not because after 60 years they don't know, or haven't detailed in some paper, how to make a crude atomic bomb.

Modern Japan could easily be nuclear in months if it wanted to.

[montypython]

Why do you doubt the Japanese have access to how construct nuclear weapons? I believe as of now most industrialized nations have produced their own sets of engineering documents to make them. That they don't is a political choice, not because after 60 years they don't know, or haven't detailed in some paper, how to make a crude atomic bomb.

Modern Japan could easily be nuclear in months if it wanted to.

Weaponisation still isn't quite as straightforward as it may seem, however, that's something that will take quite longer.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Weaponisation still isn't quite as straightforward as it may seem, however, that's something that will take quite longer.

It's very likely Japan one way or another studied the problem, built the machines it needed to make the bomb, and then hid them in one corner of Japan. Japan's high precision machine tools industry is still pretty much one of the best in the world, so there's no real problem doing it within a few months, short of the necessary weapons test to check that the calculations were done correctly.

[Sidewinder]

It's very likely Japan one way or another studied the problem, built the machines it needed to make the bomb, and then hid them in one corner of Japan. Japan's high precision machine tools industry is still pretty much one of the best in the world, so there's no real problem doing it within a few months, short of the necessary weapons test to check that the calculations were done correctly.

Unless the US government is helping Japan hide the existence of such a program and has a deal with China to moderate the Chinese military's posture towards Japan's (and the US will undoubtedly find out about such a program, for Japan's importance as the USN's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" means it's crawling with CIA, NSA, ETC agents), a nuclear-armed Japan will find itself in a situation similar to Israel's, i.e., surrounded by hostile nations (China, Taiwan, both Koreas, the Phillipines, Russia), with one crucial difference: while the Israelis can always count on the support of Jewish voters in the US, the Japanese lobby's not powerful enough to make the US government risk war with those nations to defend Japan, especially considering a nuclear-armed Japan is nowhere in support of American interests.

[Archaic`]

a nuclear-armed Japan will find itself in a situation similar to Israel's, i.e., surrounded by hostile nations (China, Taiwan, both Koreas, the Phillipines, Russia)

I wouldn't put either Taiwan or the Phillipines in the list of hostile nations there. There's a lot of pro-Japanese sentiment left in Taiwan (there's still a generation who remembers fondly being a part of Japan, and the younger generation laps up their popular culture), and the Phillipines have extremely close ties to the point where they'd be military allies if not for Japan's declared pacifism (though that didn't stop Japan sending soldiers to help after the Leyte Mud slide). While there's a lot of South Korean mudslingng as well, the two countries have strong enough ties economically that it'd be unlikely for them to come to blows.

[K. A. Pital]

Sidewinder's point only proves that there are no barriers to Japanese nuclear weapons except political ones, and that Japan is not nuclear for political reasons mostly, not because they are unable to produce a nuclear bomb.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Unless the US government is helping Japan hide the existence of such a program and has a deal with China to moderate the Chinese military's posture towards Japan's (and the US will undoubtedly find out about such a program, for Japan's importance as the USN's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" means it's crawling with CIA, NSA, ETC agents), a nuclear-armed Japan will find itself in a situation similar to Israel's, i.e., surrounded by hostile nations (China, Taiwan, both Koreas, the Phillipines, Russia), with one crucial difference: while the Israelis can always count on the support of Jewish voters in the US, the Japanese lobby's not powerful enough to make the US government risk war with those nations to defend Japan, especially considering a nuclear-armed Japan is nowhere in support of American interests.

Your point being? I didn't say they had a nuclear program, I said they could build the machines needed, studied the problem, and chucked the stuff away in the "open only on the last resort" vault. Not to mention, you have no proof that the Japanese counter intelligence is as porous as you would like to believe.

[Sidewinder]

Your point being? I didn't say they had a nuclear program, I said they could build the machines needed, studied the problem, and chucked the stuff away in the "open only on the last resort" vault. Not to mention, you have no proof that the Japanese counter intelligence is as porous as you would like to believe.

If Japan built machines necessary for the production of nuclear weapons, the US will find out about it. If this info leaks out, e.g., some CIA officer decides to do so after a nasty trade dispute with Japan, Japan's neighbors will raise a huge stink. As for Japanese counterintelligence, you seem to think Japan is a non-aligned nation, like India, which would not allow and even support US covert activities on its territory. Japan is a US ally, USAF spy planes have operated out of Japanese military bases to spy on the former USSR (see the SR-71, which earned the nickname "Habu" for a venomous snake native to Japan), and if the Japanese counterintelligence agencies arrest a CIA officer, do you think this CIA officer will be allowed to rot away in a Japanese prison?

[Beowulf]

Your point being? I didn't say they had a nuclear program, I said they could build the machines needed, studied the problem, and chucked the stuff away in the "open only on the last resort" vault. Not to mention, you have no proof that the Japanese counter intelligence is as porous as you would like to believe.

If Japan built machines necessary for the production of nuclear weapons, the US will find out about it. If this info leaks out, e.g., some CIA officer decides to do so after a nasty trade dispute with Japan, Japan's neighbors will raise a huge stink. As for Japanese counterintelligence, you seem to think Japan is a non-aligned nation, like India, which would not allow and even support US covert activities on its territory. Japan is a US ally, USAF spy planes have operated out of Japanese military bases to spy on the former USSR (see the SR-71, which earned the nickname "Habu" for a venomous snake native to Japan), and if the Japanese counterintelligence agencies arrest a CIA officer, do you think this CIA officer will be allowed to rot away in a Japanese prison?

Japan has a robust nuclear power program, including enrichment and reprocessing (they can't afford the room for storing nuclear waste). Aside from that, you need precision CNC milling machines to form the parts... Japan is also a world leader in robotics. If Japan really wanted a nuclear weapon, I wouldn't doubt that they could manage it in a year.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

If Japan built machines necessary for the production of nuclear weapons, the US will find out about it. If this info leaks out, e.g., some CIA officer decides to do so after a nasty trade dispute with Japan, Japan's neighbors will raise a huge stink. As for Japanese counterintelligence, you seem to think Japan is a non-aligned nation, like India, which would not allow and even support US covert activities on its territory. Japan is a US ally, USAF spy planes have operated out of Japanese military bases to spy on the former USSR (see the SR-71, which earned the nickname "Habu" for a venomous snake native to Japan), and if the Japanese counterintelligence agencies arrest a CIA officer, do you think this CIA officer will be allowed to rot away in a Japanese prison?

Are you a twit living in a fantasy world? Do you seriously think that an aligned nation, such as the British, would allow America's spy networks to operate freely? Does "Ally" imply that the US should have wanton access to Japanese classified files? Did you know that spies also have uses in negotiations, and that Japanese negotiating positions can get compromised by spies? Fuck, not even the British would share every damn secret they have with the US. And again, what proof do you have that the Japanese counter intelligence is that porous? Do you seriously think the CIA officer is truly operating out in the field sneaking in and out of Japanese bases? They would do it through Japanese people working in Japan. Worse case scenario, have the military attache expelled for "misdeeds".

And there's Lots of deep places in Japan. Plenty of places to hide a program. Jeez.. you make it sound so easy for secrets to leak out.

[Pelranius]

The question for a Japanese Bomb is can they deliver it to the intended target? It's not much use if the said bomb just takes up space in some JDSF hangar.

[phongn]

The question for a Japanese Bomb is can they deliver it to the intended target? It's not much use if the said bomb just takes up space in some JDSF hangar.

Japan has a highly developed rocket program.

[Pelranius]

The hard part comes with actually making sure that you can fit a warhead onto the rocket, and you'd have to modify the rocket in order for it to become a halfway decent ballistic missile (unless you're planning to shoot the warhead into orbit and then have it drop down on the other guy).

[TheLostVikings]

The hard part comes with actually making sure that you can fit a warhead onto the rocket, and you'd have to modify the rocket in order for it to become a halfway decent ballistic missile (unless you're planning to shoot the warhead into orbit and then have it drop down on the other guy).

If JAXA can build rockets precise enough to intercept and land probes on asteroids bajillion miles from earth (witch they have) I'm pretty sure they can plot the dead simple trajectories necessary to hit anywhere on earth.

This isn't exactly rocket science you know... oh, wait


Also: one of the reasons USA, Russia &Co stopped blowing up actual nukes for testing was that todays supercomputers are more than powerful enough to simulate the nuclear interactions at a detailed enough degree. And Japan just happens to have some of the worlds most powerful supercomputers, and more than enough Nuclear Plants to gather any data they need firsthand without having to rely on anyone else.

Which pretty much means they could do all the research necessary to build a nuclear weapon from the ground up without drawing any attention whatsoever from anyone, this is after all how the US, etc design ALL their modern nukes.

[Pelranius]

If JAXA can build rockets precise enough to intercept and land probes on asteroids bajillion miles from earth (witch they have) I'm pretty sure they can plot the dead simple trajectories necessary to hit anywhere on earth.

This isn't exactly rocket science you know... oh, wait


Also: one of the reasons USA, Russia &Co stopped blowing up actual nukes for testing was that todays supercomputers are more than powerful enough to simulate the nuclear interactions at a detailed enough degree. And Japan just happens to have some of the worlds most powerful supercomputers, and more than enough Nuclear Plants to gather any data they need firsthand without having to rely on anyone else.

Which pretty much means they could do all the research necessary to build a nuclear weapon from the ground up without drawing any attention whatsoever from anyone, this is after all how the US, etc design ALL their modern nukes.

You do know about CEP, don't you?

Again, the important thing about a nuke is that you have to test it, both so that you know it works and other people do as well. For instance, up to 60% of nuclear weapons may not make it to the target and explode. A computer simulation is helpful, but nothing will substitute for an actual test.

[K. A. Pital]

You do know about CEP, don't you?

Electronics and satellites for guidance are Japan's strong point, not it's weak point.

For instance, up to 60% of nuclear weapons may not make it to the target and explode

You're talking about old and obsolete weapons designed and built decades ago, with a sufficient lifespan. A nuclear weapon constructed now with the modern machine tools would not have a "40-60" probability of explosion, but it would be more like 99 versus 1.

[Pelranius]

You do know about CEP, don't you?

Electronics and satellites for guidance are Japan's strong point, not it's weak point.

For instance, up to 60% of nuclear weapons may not make it to the target and explode

You're talking about old and obsolete weapons designed and built decades ago, with a sufficient lifespan. A nuclear weapon constructed now with the modern machine tools would not have a "40-60" probability of explosion, but it would be more like 99 versus 1.

The 60% figure refers not only to nukes not exploding, but to failures involving the delivery systems. Stuart mentioned a figure like that somewhere (I'll have to go dig it up where ever it was he said it first).

I'll address the part about guidance and CEP later. My knowledge in that area is a bit rusty.

[K. A. Pital]

The 60% figure refers not only to nukes not exploding, but to failures involving the delivery systems.

Yeah. But the failure of delivery system is, explicitly, the failure of rockets. Rockets which have been used, and are old, having often multi-decade lifespans. It's not totally unreasonable that 40% of our nuclear missile arsenal would fail to work due to rocket failure. But it's inconcievable that a new and tested missile will not work.

What is Japans' problem? Constructing cruise missiles capable of crossing thousands of kms? Testing them? They can do it as part of the Navy expansion programme and no one would even see anything.