That would only be the case if we're restricted to more or less present technology. Thankfully, there are pretty plausible theoretical propulsion schemes that could do much better. Laser lightsails for instance.Batman wrote:'A bit' meaning a factor of several ten thousand or so at the lower end. Sorry, a trip from one star to another taking several millenia does NOT fit my definition of actually 'roaming' the stars.
That depends, you could think up reasons why the galaxy might have advanced civilizations but they haven't completely colonized it billions of years ago. At any rate, you might as well say the same thing about most soft SF universes with aliens. Most of them basically just ignore the Fermi Paradox, and the Fermi Paradox is much worse in a universe with fast and easy FTL.None as advanced as we are. Otherwise we'd have heard of them by now, as per hard SciFi.
The estimate is straight from from the Goddard Space Flight Center's website (14,600 stars within 100 light years).I seriously doubt there's 10,000 star systems PERIOD within 100 lightyears of our system leave alone 10,000 ones that actually have habitable planets. Or planets PERIOD.
I'll address these in reverse order. Second points: it does not matter in the long run. Even orders of magnitude greater resource commitments are a trifle before the resources of our solar system. The asteroid belt has an estimated mass of 3-3.6 X 10^18 tons (ref). Even if only .1% of that material is usable for construction that's enough that consuming a mere .1% of the resources of the asteroid belt (or .0001% its total material) would give you enough material to build 10,000 ships massing 300 million tons each. Next point is energy. The sun's total output is 3.86 X 10^26 watts (ref). A laser lightsail produces thrust on the order of 1 newton per 6.7 gigawatts of laser power (ref). A 1000 ton ship accelerating at 1 G therefore requires a laser power of 6.57 X 10^16 watts. 10,000 such ships require 6.57 X 10^20 watts. That is .00017% of the sun's energy. Even if the vessels massed 1 million tons each we're talking 1/5 of 1% of the sun's energy. The solar collector to collect this energy if stationed at .125 AU would require 7.5 X 10^13 tons of material to construct assuming each square meter of panel masses 10 kg. That is 2.5% of the resources of the asteroid belt using my initial estimate, and the facility can be re-used for more ships or re-tasked to generate power for other purposes afterward (granted, I ignored the mass of the actual lasers, mirror, and cooling systems, but on the other hand I used a ridiculously lowball estimate of how much of the asteroid belt's mass is actually usable and a rather highball estimate of the required mass for the panels). That is to send all 10,000 ships out simultaneously. With a 1 G acceleration you could reach high c-fractional speeds within a few years, so that sending them out in several smaller lots would be perfectly fine if we with to meet the target of 10,000 stars colonized within a century.A hard SciFi society that actually WOULD make use of all a system's resources wouldn't NEED to go interstellar.
Yeah. Because there's totally no adverse emotions among the public towards cloning that would prevent such a thing and where did you get the 1000 ton figure from?
Whew, hope I didn't screw up any of that math!
Of course, this all assumes that for some reason we have the goal of colonizing 10,000 stars within a century. You don't need that kind of stupendous growth rate to be competitive with a typical soft SF star empire. The Federation in ST: TOS, for instance, had what, a few thousand settled systems after twice as long?
First point: a society that is vigorously exploiting the resources of its solar system does not need to have to send expeditions to other stars in order for that to happen. It only has to want to, for the same reason we want to send astronauts to the moon and Mars. As the above figures demonstrate, a tiny percentage of the resources of such a civilization would be enough for a very vigorous exploration program (I think most of us would consider even dozens of expeditions a year fairly vigorous, and that's small potatoes compared to the numbers above).
I never said a realistic universe couldn't have unpleasant aspects. That said, AI more efficient than the human brain is extremely plausible, and once you have it you don't really have an excuse for having any of your citizens living in poverty in the long term besides being strapped for resources (absurd for a civilization with access to the resources of a solar system on top of that unless they're ridiculously numerous), or being monumentally callous or actively sadistic.Which is why Africa is NOT an AIDS-ridden hellhole, the Middle East is NOT largely stuck in the Dark Ages other than where the technology they need to kill each other more efficiently is concerned, and there's totally nobody in the US trying to force Biblical law on anybody. Oh wait.
Why?Physically impossible if we accept the lightspeed limit.