Supplies, Schmupplies

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Connor MacLeod
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Connor MacLeod »

Pantastic wrote: There are zero incidents of a military ship (that is not involved with escorting or attacking merchant ships) or military supply ship being intercepted in deep space in the fifteen or so books in the series. The reasons that merchant ships follow easily predicted paths don't apply to military ships trying to avoid interception. It's shown in Echoes of Honor that it's possible to fly a convoy of ships directly through enemy space with such a low chance of interception that they only worry about life support failures once a ship is underway. Since military ships don't generally travel at their highest theoretical speed (at least in Honor of the Queen, it may have changed later), it would be useful to have a small scout (that, like a dispatch boat, would travel at max speed) out to spot an enemy fleet en-route to a system and provide a bit of warning.

If it doesn't happen throughout an entire series of books even though there are many opportunities, people in the books don't worry about it even when running through a big chunk of enemy space, and it would be useful for them to do it to get warning, that is evidence that it simply doesn't happen. Proving a negative is generally not possible, but the complete lack of any indication that it happens once over the 20 year war qualifies as evidence that it is not practical to intercept warships and supply ships in deep space.
Oh for crying out loud. I demand evidence for this "un-interceptable FTL" and you fail to bring the evidence. I provided a quote so I don't see why its somehow impossible for you to do so, given how easily accessible online versions of the books are. I don't have to explain "burden of proof" do I?
You really should be more specific when asking for a cite, I'm guessing you mean the six months with no base bit. If so, take a look at p625 on War of Honor (italics mine). They have enough supply ships to carry six months of supplies for everything attacking Manticorian forces but Second Fleet, and can easily detach part of the supply ships to get more if they have to stay longer.
Giscard nodded. As soon as this conference ended, he and the newly designated First Fleet would depart the Haven system and head for his new station in the SXR-136-23 system. It had never recieved a name to replace the catalog designation because the thoroughly useless red giant had absolutely nothing, not even any planets, to attract anyone to it. It did, however, offer a handy anchor around which to park a fleet safely out of sight. And it just happened to be located less than forty light years northwest of Trevor's star.

The logistics ships to support First Fleet were already in place, orbiting SXR-136's dim central fires with sufficient supplies and spares to sustain the entire fleet on station for six months. If it turned out to be necessary to leave First Fleet for longer than that, the fleet train would detach ships in relays to bring back what was needed. And if the balloon went up, every single task group (except Second Fleet) set up by the carefully orchestrated war plan known as Case Red Alpha would depart from SEX-136.
Good! we have a quote to work with at least. However, I don't see how this automatically proves your point, because resource usage is not neccesarily constant across the spectrum since performance is not neccesarily the same (EG ships accelerate faster or slower, changes in firepower depending on what is to be accomplished - eg precision bombardment vs trying to destroy something, etc.) Your quote merely says "on station" for six months, which is not the same as "six months of continuous operations." - hell the KIND of operation can certainly dictate the operational endurance itself (invasion and space battle, vs commerce raiding, or scouting, for example.)
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Simon_Jester »

Commander Xillian wrote:And, this brings us to the theory of Zero-Point (Or Universal Stillpoint). Basically, there is a set space in the universe that everything revolves around. Using this theory, one could, theoretically, compute distances accurately, but like all great theories, it would be useless the moment you left your galaxy. But that would never wo-[KLAAANG!]

What the Fuck was That?
Xillian... that makes no sense. It's vaguely amusing, but even though I disagree with Skimmer about just how effective star sightings are for true deep-space navigation to the precision required to find a kilometer-sized object... gah.

Please, you seem like a reasonably clever fellow. You can do better than this.
Coyote wrote:I don't know about this; bear in mind that in stellar navigation we'd be able to track stars in an omnidirectional ball out from the ship, and not be limited to what we can see above a horizon line...
Here's the problem.

In theory, you can determine your exact position, anywhere, by knowing the angle to three points precisely enough. You know that Star A1 is at angular coordinates (B1 degrees above/below horizon, C1 degrees azimuth), Star A2 is at (B2, C2), and Star A3 is at (B3, C3). You know where those stars are in "absolute" terms (in the galactic frame), and you know where they are relative to you, allowing you to draw lines connecting you to the stars. Since there's only one point in three-dimensional space where the three lines intersect, you know your position.

The problem is: do you know your position to acceptable precision? Stars are, as I said before, tens of trillions of kilometers apart. An error of one part in a million in measuring the angular position of a nearby star translates into a positioning error of tens of millions of kilometers.

If you use distant stars for location (such as bright ones that can be seen anywhere in the galaxy), the problem is even worse. Now the distances (and the resulting error in position from a given error in your angular measurement) are ten or a hundred times greater. And you have the added problem of finding distant references, which requires you to scan the entire sky and identify exactly which stars have the right spectrum to be the landmarks you're looking for.

This is still a solvable problem. Astronomers do nail down the angular coordinates of distant bodies to extremely high precision... after long observations. As Sea Skimmer so kindly explains, this can be done to solve the problem of figuring out where you are after popping up in the middle of nowhere.

We see the problem solved in the Honorverse in War of Honor, with the survey ship Harvest Joy passing through the Talbot terminus of the Manticore wormhole junction. But it's not a trivial problem; it takes them hours to figure out where in the galaxy they are, because they don't know and have to search the surrounding stars to find reference points that tell them their position as I described above. Perhaps Weber was underestimating what the software of his era would be capable of, of course...

In a setting where such constraints apply, where it takes hours to get enough star sightings to know your exact position relative to the galactic frame without taking advantage of nearby points to sight on (such as the Sun in our own solar system)... it's understandable that you'd use a very visible aiming point (like a star) to place your fleet base. That way, ships aren't at risk of wasting time looking for your base billions of kilometers away from its real location, because if they can get within a few billion kilometers at all it's perfectly obvious where the base is: near the star.
Sea Skimmer wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:Just a guess.
That said, we track the stars on Earth by measuring the angles to the stars, compared to the horizon. In effect we're measuring the plane of the horizon, not the positions of the stars themselves. That tells us where we are... on Earth. We can say "Star 2495 is at azimuth X degrees, elevation Y degrees, so I'm at latitude A, longitude B." In space it doesn't work that way.
Yeah it fucking does. If i have three very distant known stars to sight on, and I measure the elevation and deflection to each one, I have my position in 3-D coordinates.
Yes. To what precision? If I drop your instrument package at a random location in deep space, how precisely can it determine its location within a minute? An hour? A day? At some point it becomes faster to drop out in the vicinity of a star, close enough that it's far and away the brightest thing in the sky, and just say "head to within a hundred million kilometers of that, then fire up the omnidirectional IFF beacon to get a hailing signal from the base."
Early mariners were limited in what they could do because of instrument limitations. However even then, such navigation done all by hand and eye could still be accurate to within 3 nautical miles even though the earth is moving rather fast. 3 miles is already more then good enough for any realistic space navigation given the premise that we already have interseller ships.
They didn't do it by measuring coordinates in a framework that encompassed the whole galaxy, though. They knew their latitude and longitude on Earth by measuring the position of nearby stars to a precision of tenths or (at best) hundredths of a degree. Drop them in deep space and their instruments become a lot less useful, because they are no longer constrained to the surface of a small sphere. Knowing the angular position of stars to a precision of one part in one to ten thousand doesn't give them their location to within five kilometers anymore; it gives it to within something more like five billion kilometers.

That is what I'm trying to get at. Trying to determine your absolute position "relative to the fixed stars" (or, if you prefer, to the black hole at the galactic core, or to the star that is the capital of the Galactic Empire, or whatever) is a much more difficult challenge, demanding MUCH better instruments, than doing celestial navigation on a planetary surface. Even with those much better instruments, without a known reference point nearby (like a star or planet), nailing down exact positions is difficult.
Fixed points in space? You're whole argument is flawed . A single star is not a fixed point! A star is a rather fast moving object like everything else in space.
Relative to interstellar spacecraft? We're talking about soft-SF FTL drives here. To take an example, the Sun has an orbital speed of around 250 km/s about the galactic core: less than 0.001c. Compared to the speed of an FTL starship... well. To take the Honorverse as a particular example, typical ship speeds are ~1000c. Stellar drift is to ships like that what a 100 meter per year drift would be to sailing ships. It's fast enough to have some effect on navigation over decade or century-long timescales, but for purposes of any given voyage it's well within acceptable margins of error.

So for purposes of navigation in FTL spacecraft, the stars are "fixed." Not perfectly fixed, but then continents on Earth aren't perfectly fixed either. They just move slowly enough that navigators don't have to care very much.
Furthermore a single star wouldn't work at all, since without taking in other information you have no idea what direction is what.
The star, by itself, IS NOT REQUIRED to be a complete navigation point. It is a beacon for convenience, an aid to fine-detail navigation on the order of millions of kilometers, to go with the coarse navigation that you do by reference to distant stars. You know, detailed enough that it is helpful to know the exact distance to a specific point, along with knowing the angular position of distant stars.

In deep space, the same purpose would have to be served by an artificial beacon. You could do it, it would work, but it would be clumsy.
In fact long range star tracking is the only space navigation system that will work over a wide area. Low and behold NASA has already created an automatic system to do this for spacecraft. It currently only uses the sun and the planets, since that works fine for movements within the solar system.
How precisely would it give them the position of a spacecraft that was suddenly dropped at a random point in the solar system? To within a million kilometers? Almost certainly. A thousand? Possibly. One kilometer? I would bet a considerable sum against it.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

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Commander Xillian wrote:And, this brings us to the theory of Zero-Point (Or Universal Stillpoint). Basically, there is a set space in the universe that everything revolves around. Using this theory, one could, theoretically, compute distances accurately, but like all great theories, it would be useless the moment you left your galaxy. But that would never wo-[KLAAANG!]

What the Fuck was That?
Wow, I didn't expect a meme I helped start to show up here.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Commander Xillian »

Meh, I never bought into Zero-Point, but I felt it needed listing. Unfortunately, I couldn't fix my typo of "Universe" when I meant "Galaxy". Sorry for the confusion and sounding like a retard who has to make sure he doesn't bite his tongue every time he tries to talk.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Simon_Jester »

Commander Xillian wrote:Meh, I never bought into Zero-Point, but I felt it needed listing. Unfortunately, I couldn't fix my typo of "Universe" when I meant "Galaxy". Sorry for the confusion and sounding like a retard who has to make sure he doesn't bite his tongue every time he tries to talk.
Well, from a physics standpoint you sounded like a retard anyway, because "zero point energy" is totally different from some bizarre notion of the universe having a fixed axis of rotation. There's zero evidence of that, and it would violate a number of fairly basic principles of cosmology if it were true.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Commander Xillian »

Hm. I really need to get my terminology right then, my bad. Sorry about the confusion. Heh, and to think I've been using that phrase for a few months/half a year now XD

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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by sirocco »

Simon_Jester wrote:
Fixed points in space? You're whole argument is flawed . A single star is not a fixed point! A star is a rather fast moving object like everything else in space.
Relative to interstellar spacecraft? We're talking about soft-SF FTL drives here. To take an example, the Sun has an orbital speed of around 250 km/s about the galactic core: less than 0.001c. Compared to the speed of an FTL starship... well. To take the Honorverse as a particular example, typical ship speeds are ~1000c. Stellar drift is to ships like that what a 100 meter per year drift would be to sailing ships. It's fast enough to have some effect on navigation over decade or century-long timescales, but for purposes of any given voyage it's well within acceptable margins of error.

So for purposes of navigation in FTL spacecraft, the stars are "fixed." Not perfectly fixed, but then continents on Earth aren't perfectly fixed either. They just move slowly enough that navigators don't have to care very much.

Just to add something : the Milky Way is 100 000 light years wide. If your FTL enables you to get to the other side of the galaxy, you will actually see the galaxy a 100 000 years ago...which add to the complexity of the problem.

If you have a FTL glitch in the middle of nowhere, not only do you need to calculate your coordinates relatively to remarkable stars but also calculate the new coordinates of those stars relatively to your origin or your destination.

Either you should always travel with starmaps from different places in the galaxy and try first to find in which quadrant of the galaxy you are.

Or if you are going where no one has ever set foot before, make little FTL jumps and compare your new position to the last one (like when you are travelling in the desert)

And if all of this doesn't work, well... just ask your lead scientist/astronomer/space cadet if he's got a solution.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Simon_Jester wrote: That said, we track the stars on Earth by measuring the angles to the stars, compared to the horizon.
No actually the main method today is to measure the angles of stars relative to each other. How the hell do you think an ICBM is able to guide itself by star tracking when it’s above the atmosphere and doesn’t even have a firm horizon to sight on?

Yes. To what precision? If I drop your instrument package at a random location in deep space, how precisely can it determine its location within a minute?
That might be relevant, if not for the fact that inertial navigation exists, and any realistic navigation system is an inertial system which is simply updated by sensors. That shit is cheap enough to be thrown away on every JDAM. So you do not appear in a random location, you already roughly know your location. In any case the Hubble is accurate to 7/1000th of an arc second, and is based on 1980s technology and also still close enough to the earth to be affected by the earths atmosphere distorting its picture ever so slightly. It is able to clearly photograph specific stars outside of our own galaxy, which means it’s already more then good enough for navigational purposes.

If you just appeared at random in space meanwhile, how the hell would you even know what star to home in on hun? Distant navigation stars are chosen for having a VERY predictable appearance, but that is not true of most random stars. You’d be hopelessly fucking confused and lost.

An hour? A day? At some point it becomes faster to drop out in the vicinity of a star, close enough that it's far and away the brightest thing in the sky, and just say "head to within a hundred million kilometers of that, then fire up the omnidirectional IFF beacon to get a hailing signal from the base."
Each telescope on the ship works at the same time; so you are looking at maybe a few minutes at very worst to do this. Meanwhile unless you have FTL communications I would take about 15 minutes to run an IFF interrogation at that range. Of course, since we are talking about a spherical area of space, the distance and thus travel times could be double be doubled.

If you do have FTL communications then this whole navigational issue matters even less because you can dump beacons anywhere you want without waiting years for the signals to cross interseller space before the system becomes operational. Even without beacons it would be absurdly easier to find a deep space base through basic direction finding.

They didn't do it by measuring coordinates in a framework that encompassed the whole galaxy, though. They knew their latitude and longitude on Earth by measuring the position of nearby stars to a precision of tenths or (at best) hundredths of a degree. Drop them in deep space and their instruments become a lot less useful, because they are no longer constrained to the surface of a small sphere. Knowing the angular position of stars to a precision of one part in one to ten thousand doesn't give them their location to within five kilometers anymore; it gives it to within something more like five billion kilometers.
One in ten thousand is a joke, Hubble points with accuracy equal to seven three point six millionths of a degree. And it’s a modified spy satellite from the 1980s, with none of the future optical advancements we can expect from nano technology or space manufacturing. Of course we don’t need a telescope of similar accuracy to be anywhere near so big, because we don’t need to gather enough light to make detailed photos at such long ranges. As I have pointed out before, this technology can and does fit on a warhead bus, and did so as early as the Polaris program.
That is what I'm trying to get at. Trying to determine your absolute position "relative to the fixed stars" (or, if you prefer, to the black hole at the galactic core, or to the star that is the capital of the Galactic Empire, or whatever) is a much more difficult challenge, demanding MUCH better instruments, than doing celestial navigation on a planetary surface. Even with those much better instruments, without a known reference point nearby (like a star or planet), nailing down exact positions is difficult.
Good thing computers and all that crap kind of dominate what people did by eye and pen and paper.
Relative to interstellar spacecraft? We're talking about soft-SF FTL drives here. To take an example, the Sun has an orbital speed of around 250 km/s about the galactic core: less than 0.001c.
The galactic core is also moving.

Compared to the speed of an FTL starship... well. To take the Honorverse as a particular example, typical ship speeds are ~1000c. Stellar drift is to ships like that what a 100 meter per year drift would be to sailing ships. It's fast enough to have some effect on navigation over decade or century-long timescales, but for purposes of any given voyage it's well within acceptable margins of error.
Assuming we limit ourselves to the 250km/s figure alone, and we had a trip only lasting 1 hour, that’d be enough to move the sun 900,000km. That’s not a small error when you are bitching about distant star tracking not being accurate enough. Of course you could predict this drift… if you had a map and an INS system like I have been pointing out all along. But you insit on ignoring this and claiming that everyting will be random.

Okay buddy. You just appeared in a random system. You are only allowed to use a random star in front of you for navigation. Where the fuck in the universe are you? You would NEVER EVER KNOW.

So for purposes of navigation in FTL spacecraft, the stars are "fixed." Not perfectly fixed, but then continents on Earth aren't perfectly fixed either. They just move slowly enough that navigators don't have to care very much.
They care when they get close to land. Just like a spaceship would care when it got damn close, but in deep space getting within a million kilometers is quite good enough. You really wouldn’t want ships coming out of FTL all that close to a base anyway, it’s just begging for a collision. Not to mention security concerns.
The star, by itself, IS NOT REQUIRED to be a complete navigation point. It is a beacon for convenience, an aid to fine-detail navigation on the order of millions of kilometers, to go with the coarse navigation that you do by reference to distant stars. You know, detailed enough that it is helpful to know the exact distance to a specific point, along with knowing the angular position of distant stars.
And somehow millions of kilometer is good enough, but you don’t think star tracking can do that even though the freaking Hubble keeps itself perfectly pointed at distant stars for HOURS on end to take absurdly detailed photographs?
How precisely would it give them the position of a spacecraft that was suddenly dropped at a random point in the solar system? To within a million kilometers? Almost certainly. A thousand? Possibly. One kilometer? I would bet a considerable sum against it.
Random point? Not happening for reasons I have outlined over and over again and you keep fucking ignoring. But in any case, hubble points with enough accuracy to hold itself to within the diameter of a star at absurdly long range, and its just a single sensor. So we are looking at 1.3 million kilometer precision or better, perhaps much better since nothing is really going to stop having a dozen telescopes or more. Now you’ve already conceded that using a single moving star for a reference point would only bring you within millions of kilometers, assuming you even find the right star while moving blind as you fucking insist on, so I say concession accepted.

Of course in reality if you actually jumped into a system and you had maps and an INS you would very easily locate yourself by using the planets. But that was never the fucking point, navigating inside a solar system is almost trivial with advanced technology. The point was that accuracy would be fine for deep space operations, and you’ve now demonstrated that this is true and that indeed, compared to just homing on a star you may not loose any accuracy at all.

So you have no fucking reason in space to enter a star system for navigational considerations. That’s just pure bullshit, and the systems which would let you precisely home in on a star and other planets would work fucking fine if you were a couple light years outside of the system anyway, which is far as you can get away from stars in much of the galaxy. Weber may be an ignorant writer but that’s not my fucking problem. Nothing is stopping interseller basing from working.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Simon_Jester »

All right, Skimmer, I concede. The presence or absence of a star is not a notable convenience for navigation during final approach.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by PainRack »

Sea Skimmer wrote: Only in extreme situations would planetary invasions be required. Mainly, if the distance to the enemy was SO MASSIVE that you could not operate a supply line at all. You needed to build actual forward factories that make supplies from local resources. But even in that case, most resources could be found on asteroids and moons. You would still have little to no reason to invade anything against ground opposition. Plus if the distance really was that massive, one might ask what on earth you are fighting over.
Supply outposts, factories, repair yards would still be required wouldn't it? That would mean that if planetary invasions or some form of interdiction would be required to protect your own orbital assets from enemy attack, even if the enemy is held in an entirely different system.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Coalition »

Enjoying the thread, and I thought I'd comment about going FTL, and winding up somewhere unknown. I am assuming I am in the same galaxy I started in (so my navigation maps are mostly complete).

The Captain would delegate this task to the Navigation officer, who delegates it to his assistant, who delegates it to the midshipman who came on board expecting a boring cruise. The midshipman is assigned to develop a program to take in various spacemarks, their relative positions, and plot likely locations for the ship.

Step one is to locate the galactic core. This should be fairly easy, and you label those coordinates as bearing and azimuth zero.
Step two is to locate something weird. A close by galaxy, some Cepheid variables, a supergiant, whatever stands out. You measure the difference in angles between the galactic center, and the weirdmark. Plugging those two points into the program should form a prolate spheroid (a 3-D oval, rotated about its long axis, aka a stretched sphere) showing you where you are in the galaxy.
Step three is to find another weirdmark, and make two more prolate spheroids. One with weirdmark1 and weirdmark3, and one with WM2 and WM3. Putting those together should give you six points to choose from. Adding a fourth weirdmark should let you find your location.

From there, you know your rough location in the galaxy, and can use closer stars to narrow down the location.

If you are not in your own galaxy, I'd recommend looking for nearby stars that are likely to have life-bearing planets, and checking the M:F ratio of your crew.


Good thread though, I like it where everyone was discussing the effects of supplies on interstellar operations, and the results thereof. I was comparing it to DS9's Dominion War, when the Dominion seized Betazed. It not only conquered part of the Federation, but the Dominion would have used it as a supply base, allowing for faster and more frequent strikes on Federation targets. Similarly, if you could get the Klingons and Romulans to trust each other; where a Romulan capital ship or few serve as cloaked supply platforms, for Klingon raids on Dominion targets. They'd be able to shift course based on targets discovered or enemy patrols much faster than waiting for the ships to return to DS9, update the database, and the follow-on ships learning about the defenses only after they get back.

Federation ships could not be used, due to the lack of cloaking technology.
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Simon_Jester »

Yes, this is precisely what I'm getting at. The closer to the target you can get a secure supply route, one immune to interception*, the heavier and more prolonged the operations you can sustain at the target. The more secure your supply route is in relative terms, again, the more operations you can sustain against the target.

Now, capturing a single point deep in enemy space does you little good if you don't capture all the points around it, unless it's impossible for the enemy to intercept your supply line and you just need a convenient place to park your ships while they tank up. But a broad-front offensive that at least destroys the fleet positions the enemy has in the vicinity will do wonders for your supplies, even if you never bother to take the planets themselves.

*Because it uses a wormhole, or because your supply ships are cloaked, or because you've knocked out all the fleet bases within easy striking range of it
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Re: Supplies, Schmupplies

Post by Sea Skimmer »

PainRack wrote: Supply outposts, factories, repair yards would still be required wouldn't it?
Sure but it can all be mobile or in containers that can just drift together in space. The normal naval constraints which force us to have sheltered water for bases don’t apply in space, and you have no need of heavy infrastructure like dry docks and heavy cranes. All that stuff was made mobile and forward deployed by the USN anyway, and lots of destroyer and submarine tenders still exist today. As an example of what was made mobile in WW2, here's a 10 piece dry dock able to support 100,000 tons, larger then any ship on earth. The full version was 12 pieces but we scaled some of them down to have more total docks.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... rydock.jpg

Docks like this were taken all the way forward to Gaum, and were intended for Okinawa to support the invasion of Japan once it got going. Of course like I was saying, you don't really need stuff like this in space. Robots with thrusters can move large objects around for you in zero G, and some mobile robotic arms like the one on the ISS could guide stuff into precise position. In space no real reason would exist why a ship could not be sustained on a forward deployment for its whole life if you had the proper support assets, and all without requiring controlling any earth or rock.

That would mean that if planetary invasions or some form of interdiction would be required to protect your own orbital assets from enemy attack, even if the enemy is held in an entirely different system.
You’ve got to defend your offensive bases in or near enemy territory no matter where you put them. Putting them in space away from any system could be advantageous though, past merely removing the need to invade planets. If you are in deep space, no other spacecraft has a reason to approach for example, so no bullshit with supply ships coming from the planets population and your own sensors should work a lot better since you don’t have a sun throwing out energy. Furthermore, since you can move about anything in space a base would almost certainly be designed to be mobile in real time, like current USN sea basing concepts. So you can just move the ship thing from time to time to make it harder to attack.

Home territory bases would be more likely to be around planets, because you need to defend fewer points then. Also you wont want to pay for all the base infrastructure being mobile.
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