Realistic expectations of an Assiti Shard scenario

[spartasman]

To clarify the basic premise, an Assiti Shard is something created by Eric Flint in order to explain the Ring Of Fire series (1632 and so on). The idea is that an area is transported through time & Space and deposited into an earlier (or perhaps later) period of time. S.M. Stirlings' "Nantucket" Series is likewise an example of this scenario (Though the mode of travel is not related to Eric Flints'). Of the two, The Nantucket series seems to be the most realistic, with the entire Island of Nantucket struggling to survive food shortages and disease and warfare after being sent into the year 1250 B.C.

The question that I have is whether or not this would be possible with another group of people. The Nantucketers (or, if you must, the Americans in 1632) seem to be able to pull themselves together as a tight-nit group, which they already were. Also, the areas transported are relatively small and with low population densities, meaning that food is less of an issue. What could be reasonably expected if another group of people were to be transported, a group without the community-centric cultures that were sent back in the previously named stories. Now, I'm not asking what would happen if New York City was transported to, say, 548 A.D, or some Chicago suburb to 1886. What could be expected if a largely rural area were to be transported, an area, say, twelve miles wide that included substantial numbers of people and infrastructure from a nearby city? Another note I should make is that both the 1632 and Nantucket books use areas that include their own power plants. What are the prerequisites be for a community to make survival at a relatively advanced level possible?

[Junghalli]

I think too much depends on the exact circumstances to answer this in anything but the broadest generalities.

For instance, a group dumped into 12,000 BCE ... the main factors determining how things go is going to be their internal cohesion, their self-sufficiency, how well they can deal with the different climate and environment, and how much technology they can retain. Take the same group and dump them into the same situation the 1632 guys were and I imagine things will look very different (probably worse for them).

[spartasman]

What if an area, comprised of several small towns and the outskirts of a reasonably-sized city, along with alot of surrounding farmland, was transported to the American east coast in 1600, without any power stations except small generators. Say around thirty thousand people, with some group cohesion and near-immediate measures by police/officials to control the area (not to mention major food and resource stores along with medicines). I'm trying to gauge whether or not an idea for a story is plausible, so if you think its not possible for them to maintain at least a low-industrial state for a minimum of two years, don't beat around the bush.

[Bakustra]

Define "reasonably advanced". Maintaining a power plant is going to be near-impossible before a certain date. Oil power plants would be limited to time-traveled fuel supplies before 1856 period, but being anywhere outside East-Central Europe would effectively shut them down before refineries entered that area. Coal plants could go farther back, but they still would run into problems before coal production started en masse in the area, as well as problems with lower-grade coal. Natural gas didn't start getting refined until oil did, and was mostly burned anyways. Nuclear... don't make me laugh. Solar, wind, and hydroelectric don't need fuel, but spare parts will be dear and they will break down eventually. Geothermal will break down faster. So electricity is unlikely in the long-term, beyond the possibility of crude exploitation of water and wind power... but then we run into the problem of agriculture.

Most modern crop varieties are sterile ordinarily. This is to prevent unwanted hybridization and genetically-modified crops from spreading. Unfortunately, this puts a hard cap on the amount of food they can grow. This is ignoring the suitability of the crops to the area- a modern slice of rural USA won't grow much if transplanted to 1000s Central Africa. While they could subside on local crops, that only applies after the introduction of agriculture.

While there are ways to get around this, there are far more problems. Ultimately, for a community to really thrive, it becomes more plausible for it to be a planned experiment, which would explain the relative cohesiveness of the people, the supplies, and so on. Of course, that is a different scenario entirely, and, I would submit, less fun to read about, but there you have it.

Overall, a low-industrial state for two years is not quite implausible in 1600, but unlikely for a variety of reasons. Go ahead and write the story, but keep the problems in mind.

[thegreatpl]

Also depends on entirely who got transported. A group who already knew each other in person could survive and probably band together well. But if you get a group of people who never really met each other we could have more problems getting a society up.

Also, there is a question of knowledge. If we have a bunch of workers with no real knowledge of how things work, then you are looking at societal collapse. But if you got a bunch of engineers who know everything, then you are looking at Alfred Packer and his Woodgas power generators.

There is also a question of the societal makeup of the group; More upper class than lower class? More men then women? More women and men?

The time they arrive at is also important. If it is less than 1000AD you are pretty much going to be one of the most powerful nations on the planet. After 1000AD, you are probably going to have to make deals with rulers.

Also, whatever the scenario, you are likely going to need more population to be able to really make a dent in world affairs.

There was, I believe, a RAR and a story about what would have happened if the inhabitants of this forum went back with Nantucket. The story has only just had a coup to get a proper democracy in place after an entire year back in time.