What If: Timeswitch England 2012 A.D. with England 12 A.D.

[amigocabal]

On the summer solstice of 2012, England is surrounded by a curtain of colored lights. When the lights disappear, astronomers learn that the island had been transported back to the summer solstice of the year 12.

How would the people and government of 2012 England deal with being sent back to 12?

How would the rest of the world in 12 deal with 2012 England?

And vice versa?

[madd0ct0r]

just england? so scotland and wales are left in the present?

ONE BIG ASS SORTA CELTIC PARTY!

(and ruined economies. Neo UK becomes a largely wood exporting nation)

[fgalkin]

Collapse and starvation for everyone! What fun!

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Ahriman238]

Britain's relationship with Rome could make for interesting discussion. Assuming they don't starve or run out of oil.

Plus Christ should still be alive and a teenager at this time.

[Darth Tanner]

Britain should be able to feed itself if the government was sufficiently draconian with rationing and cutting back on meat consumption. Also we have the military and economic ability to get some foods from the Romans by trade or conquest although I don’t think they have the merchant marine to really make that much of a difference.

The cutting of oil and gas supplies would be a big problem though, how long would it take to start putting new oil rigs out in the now untapped North Sea, I’m reasonably certain we’ll run out long before we can get new rigs running although again sufficiently draconian rationing would help.

Once the population dies off or we reach a level of sustainability it’s going to be Pax Britannica a couple of millennia earlier though. I'd imagine the depravations that the collapse of consumerist society is going to be the perfect breeding ground for a mindset that doesn’t have a problem with going around taking things by force.

The Britain that gets sent forward in time gets taken over by the UN as an immediate basket case.

[amigocabal]

Britain should be able to feed itself if the government was sufficiently draconian with rationing and cutting back on meat consumption. Also we have the military and economic ability to get some foods from the Romans by trade or conquest although I don’t think they have the merchant marine to really make that much of a difference.

The cutting of oil and gas supplies would be a big problem though, how long would it take to start putting new oil rigs out in the now untapped North Sea, I’m reasonably certain we’ll run out long before we can get new rigs running although again sufficiently draconian rationing would help.

During World War II, wood gas vehicles were used due to fossil fuel scarcity. Fueling police cars, fire trucks, ambulances, and construction vehicles after the oil runs out would be a challenge but far from impossible.

Civilian pickup trucks, on the other hand, would have to rely on literal horsepower. I would expect pedicabs and bicycles to be the dominant form of transportation in the cities within a month after the timeswitch.

As for food, two options are to take Ireland or take Gaul. Agriculture in Ireland at the time is, however, more primitive than in Gaul, let alone the English countryside, and it would take great effort to do the planting and harvesting. Gaul (where France is in 2012) has more food, and while the Roman legions would not be able to put up much resistance, a hostile takeover would mean that for decades at least, the Romans would, at best, not provide any help.

(In the above post, I did not make clear that the entire island was timewitched. If only England was timeswitched, the English could settle Scotland and Wales, but as with Ireland, agriculture there would not be as developed as in Gaul.)

(and ruined economies. Neo UK becomes a largely wood exporting nation)

Yeah, there would be a short, steep, and severe depression in Europe, as bonds held in British banks suddenly become worthless, and the source of many consumer goods disappear. America would slide back into a recession, although the economic situation there would be much better than in Europe.

[Captain Seafort]

Plus Christ should still be alive and a teenager at this time.

And possibly stranded in the 21st century, depending on which legends you believe.

[Thanas]

On the summer solstice of 2012, England is surrounded by a curtain of colored lights. When the lights disappear, astronomers learn that the island had been transported back to the summer solstice of the year 12.

How would the people and government of 2012 England deal with being sent back to 12?

With starvation and collapse.

EDIT: The population of England is 50 million.
The entire population of the Roman Empire is at this point around 50-80 million.

This should give you some idea.

[fgalkin]

Britain should be able to feed itself if the government was sufficiently draconian with rationing and cutting back on meat consumption. Also we have the military and economic ability to get some foods from the Romans by trade or conquest although I don’t think they have the merchant marine to really make that much of a difference.

Britain imports something like 50% of its food. You don't get over that with draconian rationing (hint: if they cut rations by half the daily calorie intake will fall to concentration camp inmate levels). Assuming people will get their shit together and even implement it in the first place.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Darth Nostril]

The rural population would probably cope after a period of belt tightening, there's plenty of agricultural capacity that is unused/underused because of the cheaper imports the supermarkets prefer. The fuel situation could get tight, but older diesels (like a lot of equipment farmers hang onto) can run on heating oil if necessary.
Cities on the other hand would explode with violence and chaos, there's no way a city the size of London could be fed by Britains agricultural industry at short notice, especially so with a loss of electricity and refined fuels. The loss of power would effectively kill the urban water systems rapidly leading to mass outbreaks of diseases like cholera.
Expect a mass die off of chavs, residents of places like Notting Hill might last a little longer until their supplies of bottled designer water run out.
Any surviving hoodies could be put to good use extracting Britains remaining coal reserves, commercially unviable in a world of cheap imports, an essential asset in 12 AD. Or pulling carts - it'll be a while before the horse population is up to strength so put the misbegotten wretches to some good use before they collapse from exposure to non-polluted air/mobile phone radiation withdrawal symptoms.

[Simon_Jester]

If there is anything left of the English fishing fleet they will have record-breaking catches: modern trawling methods are frighteningly effective at sweeping the seas of fish, and in 12 AD fish populations are far higher because they've never been exposed to anything but hand-lines and hand-cast nets.

[Blayne]

Would it be possible to quickly resettle several million to Gaul?

What would interest me is how quickly and early could technology (re)spread to the rest of the world? What nations would survive culturally and which ones would likely be stillborn as a result of the cultural migrations and evolution being disrupted by the British? China, Vietnam and Japan strike me as likely to survive vaguely recognizable to us, Native Americans may do much better this time around. Rome might survive?

I'm not a linguist/guy-who-studies-cultures-ist but my educated guess is that Russia, Germany, Spain, France (anyone in the Roman Empire anyways) are probably screwed and may never form. The arab world become's really tricky because what happens with Islam? Does it still spread? The ramifications for this timeline would be fascinating.

[madd0ct0r]

Would it be possible to quickly resettle several million to Gaul?
.

Doubtful - most of gaul would be old forest that'd need clearing before you could farm.

[Thanas]

Oh, and bad transportation etc.

plus, people do not take kindly to you settling in their lands.

[evilsoup]

Would we see a repeat (well not exactly repeat since time travel, but you know what I mean) of what happened in the European colonisation of the Americas? Not deliberate genocide, I mean the disease-spreading aspects...

[HMS Conqueror]

England ends up ruling the entire world?

Not that it's special to England, even the most dysfunctional African country is a superpower in 12 AD, and a large first world democracy is omnipotent. Any adjustment problems (including loss of millions of lives - though I don't necessarily think that would happen) that you think are awful based on 2012 norms still leave it vastly more powerful than any 12 AD state.

Personally I would be more interested in the English immigration policy. Those Latin-speaking layabouts stealing our jobs, eh?

[Ultonius]

It would be interesting to see what would happen to 2012 Northern Ireland, since it would be the only remaining part of the UK, unless the islands surrounding Great Britain were not transposed either. Sinn Fein might push for Northern Ireland to join the Republic by 1916, on the grounds that it cannot survive on its own. This would be strongly opposed by the Unionist parties, and probably by the British Overseas Territories, not to mention the British military units stationed overseas. Dissident Republican paramilitary groups would probably step up their terrorist campaign, seeing their chance to unite Ireland closer than they ever thought possible, which in turn might stir up the Loyalist paramilitaries to retaliate, either specifically against the dissidents or more generally against Nationalists.

[Thanas]

Would we see a repeat (well not exactly repeat since time travel, but you know what I mean) of what happened in the European colonisation of the Americas? Not deliberate genocide, I mean the disease-spreading aspects...

Why? If anything, England will suffer a lot due to our modern bodies not really being healthy to handle all the stuff the ancients did - like lower food safety standards etc.

England ends up ruling the entire world?

Not that it's special to England, even the most dysfunctional African country is a superpower in 12 AD, and a large first world democracy is omnipotent. Any adjustment problems (including loss of millions of lives - though I don't necessarily think that would happen) that you think are awful based on 2012 norms still leave it vastly more powerful than any 12 AD state.

As usual you ignore the most basic problems. After, say, 80-90% of England dies off over the next two years and technology collapsed, there will be nothing but empty ruins trawled by savages.

[Ultonius]

Sorry, I meant to say 2016 in my above post, instead of 1916.

I imagine that once they face the reality of the situation, the UK government in 12 AD would see that the only real alternative to starvation would be to get food from the Roman Empire, and relocate as many people as possible there. They would hopefully first attempt to do this peacefully, offering the Romans technology within their ability to manufacture, such as black powder and steam power, in return for food, and the right to set up settlements within the empire. If these peaceful attempts failed, the UK would probably invade the empire while their stocks of ammunition, explosives and fuel were still high, then begin setting up military colonies they could move their population to, while taking control of food supplies. They might also found colonies in North America and Africa, so that even if the UK fell to starvation, some form of British civilization would survive, even if it was limited to black powder and steam.

[Thanas]

I imagine that once they face the reality of the situation, the UK government in 12 AD would see that the only real alternative to starvation would be to get food from the Roman Empire, and relocate as many people as possible there. They would hopefully first attempt to do this peacefully, offering the Romans technology within their ability to manufacture, such as black powder and steam power, in return for food, and the right to set up settlements within the empire.

That won't really work, considering the economy of the Roman empire will not be able to support twice the size of people overnight.

If these peaceful attempts failed, the UK would probably invade the empire while their stocks of ammunition, explosives and fuel were still high, then begin setting up military colonies they could move their population to, while taking control of food supplies.

So....your solution to that is to destroy europe? That may be possible, but doubtful (the military will be needed to shoot its own people first to stop looting) and the British miltiary cannot control a country the size of Europe by itself. At this point, I very much doubt they can even control Gaul and/or spain.

Even more problematic, this will save nothing, as neither country can produce enough crops to feed them.

They might also found colonies in North America and Africa, so that even if the UK fell to starvation, some form of British civilization would survive, even if it was limited to black powder and steam.

Sure, but how do you suddenly change your entire tech base to something like that? It cannot really be done.

[Purple]

Assume it can be done thou. Assume it all works out fine with magic. What than? Nether the rest of Europe or America have the kind of port facilities or transportation infrastructure that would be required to transport such amounts of food to england. There are no modern ports in the roman empire, certainly nothing that can fit modern ships. What are they going to do? Build a gazillion galleys and sail them up the Spanish coast and beyond? It just can't be done.

[HMS Conqueror]

England ends up ruling the entire world?

Not that it's special to England, even the most dysfunctional African country is a superpower in 12 AD, and a large first world democracy is omnipotent. Any adjustment problems (including loss of millions of lives - though I don't necessarily think that would happen) that you think are awful based on 2012 norms still leave it vastly more powerful than any 12 AD state.

As usual you ignore the most basic problems. After, say, 80-90% of England dies off over the next two years and technology collapsed, there will be nothing but empty ruins trawled by savages.

Even the domestic food production would support the population, and it is obviously not optimised for the task. Or at the present calorie intake, which is excessive even relative to optimum let alone minimum, it could support 50-60%.

The big problem I could see is sudden interruption of oil - it matters a lot here whether he means "England" or the UK, because the UK is actually self-sufficient - but that still wouldn't be enough to do more than dramatically drop the English GDPPC for a few years. Note, drop relative to 2012, it would still be at least an order of magnitude greater than any 12 AD state.

[Captain Seafort]

The big problem I could see is sudden interruption of oil - it matters a lot here whether he means "England" or the UK, because the UK is actually self-sufficient - but that still wouldn't be enough to do more than dramatically drop the English GDPPC for a few years. Note, drop relative to 2012, it would still be at least an order of magnitude greater than any 12 AD state.

That assumes (assuming that the basic assertion is accurate) that the North Sea platforms get dragged along with the shift, rather than the UK or Great Britain alone moving, and leaving the platforms to spurt oil into the oggin at whatever point the cutoff occurs.

[Thanas]

Even the domestic food production would support the population, and it is obviously not optimised for the task. Or at the present calorie intake, which is excessive even relative to optimum let alone minimum, it could support 50-60%.

Dude, you got no idea of the problem. Optimization? Try downsizing. For one, fertilizer will run out very quickly, which means foodstuff production will crash. Likewise, the meat production will be down massively after a few months.

Without modern fertilizer, no modern food production.

This leaves us with 18th century production methods, which mean there will only be one large city in the country. And that is assuming the service sector will somehow magically transform itself to skilled agriculture workers.

Not possibe.

[Ahriman238]

Sure, but how do you suddenly change your entire tech base to something like that? It cannot really be done.

It could be done, just not really on a useful scale within a useful timeframe. Same with the agriculture, you could perhaps take measures that would lessen the damage a very small amount, but at the end of the day most of the technology will stop working and most the people will die off.

The question then becomes, what would you have after? Who is more liekly to survive the chaos and collapse, and can they organize? If not, they're fodder for barbarians or at best Rome's newest province.