io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

SF: discuss futuristic sci-fi series, ideas, and crossovers.

Moderator: NecronLord

User avatar
Formless
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4143
Joined: 2008-11-10 08:59pm
Location: the beginning and end of the Present

io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Formless »

I thought this would be an interesting discussion topic:
Charlie Jane Anders via io9 wrote:What ever happened to the "advanced civilization gone barbaric" story?

It used to be a mainstay of science fiction: the story where we visit a barbarian society that turns out to have been highly technologically advanced in the past. You saw this story all the time on Doctor Who and Star Trek, and in the pulps. And now, it's more or less vanished. What happened?

Top image: Michael Whelan.
Related
Michael Chabon's 17-Year Quest to Write a Mars Adventure Movie

We talked about this sort of story archetype with Michael Chabon, when we interviewed him about John Carter last year. We asked him where that type of "visiting a formerly advanced culture" story comes from, and he responded:
Michael Chabon wrote:As the 19th century turned into the 20th century and archeologists started to press deeper in to the jungles of Central and South America and into the deserts of Mesopotamia and India, they began to encounter clear evidence of many civilizations that had attained some level of technological greatness. You look around at these places and you see the living descendants of these people living without the incredibly sophisticated caliber of technology that their forebears had invented. I think it's a very haunting, stark memento mori for a representative of any civilization.

That begins to permeate the thinking of 19th century Europe and America and produces works like The Decline of The West. The rise and fall of civilization is this inevitable process, to which we must all eventually succumb. Nobody's going got be more haunted by that thinking than a parvenu, an ariviste who's kind of new to it all. The person who's most worried about losing everything is the person who's had it the least amount of time. You find that kind of anxiety haunting American popular fiction. You see it in H.P. Lovecraft, you see it in Robert E Howard. In fact, it's probably one of the key tropes of a lot of pulp fiction of the 20th century, that notion that it's all bound to end someday.

That helped determine the way the astronomer Percival Lowell, it helped determine what he saw when he looked through is telescope at the planet Mars. He saw these lines that looked like man-made structures. The Italian astronomer Schiaparelli referred to them as canalli, and [Lowell] thought that meant canals. In fact, it meant channels. His mind, prepared by the 19th century experience of the fear of decline, the gotterdamerung — he just made that imaginative leap and thought, "Now I can see Mars is far from the sun, and it looks cold, and it probably doesn't have much atmosphere and seems to be mostly desert. What I'm going to infer from that is that there was this once great civilization that built these mighty canals that criss-crossed the entire planet. And why were they there? They must have been trying to save their world by spreading water from the polar ice caps." This is a man of science, and he just made one wild inference after another. Those were all driven by the gestalt of that, and Edgar Rice Burroughs had the brilliant pulp narrative wisdom and transform into this rich world of Barsoom, which is in this long, slow, gradual decline, having once reached this mighty pinnacle.
But that still doesn't explain why this particular story trope went away. I'm hard-pressed to think of an "advanced civilization now fallen into barbarism" story in the past decade or so — apart from John Carter, of course. Especially the subtrope, where the newly barbaric society is worshipping its former high technology, doesn't seem to turn up that much. (Although apparently it's big in Japan, specifically Japanese RPGs.)

So what happened? I have two theories. First, these stories were about colonialism, and that they thrived during and immediately after the colonial era. Part of the wish-fulfillment aspect of the "fallen into barbarism" story isn't just the puzzle-solving of realizing that this apparently backward society was once advanced — it's also getting to be the clever white person (usually white guy) who understands the natives' own history better than they do. The European visitor who figures out that the idol all the natives are worshipping is really a computer, or that all of their ancient myths are actually about spaceships or whatnot.

And maybe we're a little less comfortable being overtly triumphalist in our depictions of race and cultural interaction, and a little less happy to celebrate the idea of the white explorer who visits other peoples and tells them how best to interpret their own cultures.

But a second theory is that the "foreign culture that has fallen into barbarism" story has largely been replaced by the post-apocalyptic story, in which it's our own civilization that's fallen. There's not that much difference between how Edgar Rice Burroughs treats the forgotten greatness of Barsoom and how, say, Revolution treats America's former technological and political prowess.

It's just that as America (and other Western countries) have appeared more fallible on the world stage and weaker economically, it's harder to imagine us striding triumphantly through the scene of other people's former greatness — and easier to imagine striding through our own ruins.
Personally, the first thing that came to mind was that they simply had to compete with alternative fantasy styles. Although they start with a sci-fi premise they usually have a high fantasy aesthetic, and that genre eventually drifted towards Tolkien's approach to world building where the setting never was or will be Earth as we know it.

The next thing I thought was that it might be grating on the suspension of disbelief of your average sci-fi fan in the sense that, why would society fall this far and no further? Why the iron age? Or the bronze age? Why not a Victorian steampunk setting? After all, don't better information storage methods (like books) help keep technological and scientific progress safe? And why does the resulting culture resemble our society about as closely as a bicycle resembles a banana? Technology and culture aren't one in the same.

Third thing I thought, it probably started fading during the Cold War era. The destructiveness of atomic warfare and the immediacy of it in popular culture spawned at least three different competing Apocalyptic genres: The Thriller where the protagonists are seeking to stop an apocalypse (successfully), the tragedy/satire where they fail to stop the apocalypse and we're all simply dead (see: Dr Strangelove), and Survivalist fiction (whether its Rugged Individualist stuff of zombie stories or the lesser seen underground city scenario). In none of these does society survive as a bizarre barbarian caricature of itself (and there certainly aren't any recognizable remains of our architecture... usually), it either dies out entirely or the survivors rebuild it as it was.

Then again there are some in io9's comments section that pointed out that there are analogous motifs in sci-fi of the vanished interstellar civilization that left only ruins. What do ye SDNettizens think?
"Still, I would love to see human beings, and their constituent organ systems, trivialized and commercialized to the same extent as damn iPods and other crappy consumer products. It would be absolutely horrific, yet so wonderful." — Shroom Man 777
"To Err is Human; to Arrr is Pirate." — Skallagrim
“I would suggest "Schmuckulating", which is what Futurists do and, by extension, what they are." — Commenter "Rayneau"
The Magic Eight Ball Conspiracy.
User avatar
andrewgpaul
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2270
Joined: 2002-12-30 08:04pm
Location: Glasgow, Scotland

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by andrewgpaul »

There's a related idea, I think; the decline into not barbarism but into totalitarianism or fundamentalism: The Republic's transformation into the Galactic Empire, the republic of Gilead in the Handmaid's Tale, Panem in The Hunger Games, or even the state of the USA in Dark Angel. A cultural or moral fall rather than a physical, if you will.

It saves on the effects budget if all you need are some black SUVs and spare uniforms from Starship Troopers, and it means you can say pointed things about whichever polititians you don't like.
"So you want to live on a planet?"
"No. I think I'd find it a bit small and wierd."
"Aren't they dangerous? Don't they get hit by stuff?"
User avatar
Borgholio
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6297
Joined: 2010-09-03 09:31pm
Location: Southern California

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Borgholio »

It's actually happened before. Look at the Greek Dark ages after the fall of Classical Greece, and the European Dark ages after the fall of Rome. Technology dropped back to the level where the existing population could support or need it. In Rome, that means the great aqueducts and roads fell apart, but they still knew how to forge iron and build large stone buildings. If the world today had a sudden technological collapse or a plague, the survivors would probably be at a late-industrial era level with smidgens of modern tech. It really isn't going to be that hard to fall back to late 1800's era methods for drilling for oil, mining coal, generating local areas of electrical power, telegraph networks, shortwave radios, etc...
You will be assimilated...bunghole!
User avatar
Batman
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 16430
Joined: 2002-07-09 04:51am
Location: Seriously thinking about moving to Marvel because so much of the DCEU stinks

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Batman »

Initially, yes. But there's too damned much information about how that technology works, and how to get to that technology eventually around for this information to be truly lost at least in Earth's case. A couple decades worth, certainly. But unless someone successfully went out of their way to destroy any and all records on how to get from ancient technology base A to current technology base B, recovery is distinctly likely. Lengthy to be sure, but likely.

And that is one of the reasons I don't think historical examples necessarily apply. We have information access (and redundancy of information storage) that was simply undreamed of at the time. You can eradicate Germany, or the US, or any country via orbital strikes in their entirety with zero survivors and the vast majority of their knowledge would still be available.
'Next time I let Superman take charge, just hit me. Real hard.'
'You're a princess from a society of immortal warriors. I'm a rich kid with issues. Lots of issues.'
'No. No dating for the Batman. It might cut into your brooding time.'
'Tactically we have multiple objectives. So we need to split into teams.'-'Dibs on the Amazon!'
'Hey, we both have a Martian's phone number on our speed dial. I think I deserve the benefit of the doubt.'
'You know, for a guy with like 50 different kinds of vision, you sure are blind.'
User avatar
krakonfour
Padawan Learner
Posts: 376
Joined: 2011-03-23 10:56am

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by krakonfour »

Another thing is resources. We basically have millions of tons of iron and other metals just lying on the surface. We simply cannot revert to a society limited by resources because all that stuff we mined is not going back under the surface.

No Stone-Age.
It's Scrap-Iron Age.
GREAT BALLS OF FIRE!
Like worldbuilding? Write D&D adventures or GTFO.

A setting: Iron Giants
Another setting: Supersonic swords and Gun-Kata
Attempts at Art
User avatar
Thanas
Magister
Magister
Posts: 30779
Joined: 2004-06-26 07:49pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Thanas »

krakonfour wrote:Another thing is resources. We basically have millions of tons of iron and other metals just lying on the surface. We simply cannot revert to a society limited by resources because all that stuff we mined is not going back under the surface.

No Stone-Age.
It's Scrap-Iron Age.
That is a bad argument to make, up until the late middle ages nobody in previously-Roman Europe mined metall large-scale or had large quarries simply because there was so much Roman stuff to reuse. Didn't stop them from reverting, if anything it stopped progress because it was just so damned convenient to just rip up a Roman building.
Whoever says "education does not matter" can try ignorance
------------
A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
------------
My LPs
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

The main difference is that here, the survivors would still need technological means of working that raw material into usable engines- survivors 100 years after the apocalypse won't find working internal combustion engines! So while the technology of resource extraction would atrophy (no one builds giant offshore oil rigs after the apocalypse), the technology of building machinery would likely survive on some level above swords and muscle power.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
User avatar
Thanas
Magister
Magister
Posts: 30779
Joined: 2004-06-26 07:49pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Thanas »

I guess it would depend on how much of the technology and information storage is gone.
Whoever says "education does not matter" can try ignorance
------------
A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
------------
My LPs
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

An apocalypse that randomly killed a vast majority of all humans everywhere (such as a global pandemic where no one successfully manages to maintain quarantine) would probably see us reduced to stone/iron age technology. And I say "stone/iron" because in terms of what we could make for ourselves we would likely be essentially like Stone Age societies- we can bash metal into useful shapes, but we can't make it or manipulate it in controlled fashion.

An apocalypse that plays favorites in terms of which areas are hit the hardest (a pandemic that certain islands keep quarantine through, a thermonuclear war, an asteroid impact that devastates coastlines and specific land areas but leaves others unharmed) would probably leave some areas with a more or less intact social fabric where basic machine technology could be preserved, by those locals with the knowledge to apply to it.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
User avatar
Borgholio
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6297
Joined: 2010-09-03 09:31pm
Location: Southern California

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Borgholio »

I dunno if we'd regress THAT far. Certain "simple" modern machines will be simple to either cobble together or scavenge. Solar panels scavenged for electricity can last decades before wearing out, radios can be made with copper wire taken from buildings or downed power lines, watermills and windmills can be used to provide mechanical power, etc...

I think the only way we could go back to the "stone" age is if the human population was reduced to only a few thousand individuals in a remote area of the planet and had no modern technology to scavenge and / or no understanding of modern science to try and rebuild it. That'd be a hell of a pandemic.
You will be assimilated...bunghole!
User avatar
krakonfour
Padawan Learner
Posts: 376
Joined: 2011-03-23 10:56am

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by krakonfour »

Even if we lose a large amount of worldwide knowledge, we'd still have a lot of 'black-box' machines that we'd know how to operate but not rebuild. I'm thinking electric engines and solar panels here.
GREAT BALLS OF FIRE!
Like worldbuilding? Write D&D adventures or GTFO.

A setting: Iron Giants
Another setting: Supersonic swords and Gun-Kata
Attempts at Art
User avatar
PainRack
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7583
Joined: 2002-07-07 03:03am
Location: Singapura

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by PainRack »

The foreign culture slide into barbarism genre was probably replaced when Tolkien and Asimov replaced it with Dark Ages meme, which has now morphed into Apocalyptic meme.


More importantly, why the fuck aren't we questioning the assumption?

Dr Who? Ok. Who visits barbaric earth and other planets, fine.

But Star Trek? There are several episodes of this sure, but the remaining episodes are littered with god like beings, space salt vampires and Cold War mythology.

Barsoom had that, but then the whole space opera pulp didn't rely on this meme. Flash Gordon? Buck Rogers? Captain(insert toy hero)? Hell. Anyone remember the "astronaut visit dead planet, bring back egg that attacks the whole Earth monster" trope? After Aliens, it sorta died away too. Anyway, the whole space opera relied on good villians, swashbuckling adventures, a kinda hero setup that included this trope but didn't comprise of it.



I think the author simply ignores just how varied the genre is and just how influential a single work can be and the wave effect it causes. However, it can be replaced by other more influential works and that was what happened. Hell, fantasy nowadays is full of urban fantasy due to the Dresden Files and the traditional King revitalise dying culture trope is almost gone.
Let him land on any Lyran world to taste firsthand the wrath of peace loving people thwarted by the myopic greed of a few miserly old farts- Katrina Steiner
User avatar
PainRack
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7583
Joined: 2002-07-07 03:03am
Location: Singapura

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by PainRack »

Batman wrote:Initially, yes. But there's too damned much information about how that technology works, and how to get to that technology eventually around for this information to be truly lost at least in Earth's case. A couple decades worth, certainly. But unless someone successfully went out of their way to destroy any and all records on how to get from ancient technology base A to current technology base B, recovery is distinctly likely. Lengthy to be sure, but likely.

And that is one of the reasons I don't think historical examples necessarily apply. We have information access (and redundancy of information storage) that was simply undreamed of at the time. You can eradicate Germany, or the US, or any country via orbital strikes in their entirety with zero survivors and the vast majority of their knowledge would still be available.
Errr..... Just how durable is modern day knowledge infrastructure? Hard drives, books, are all quite vulnerable to fire and the elements.
Let him land on any Lyran world to taste firsthand the wrath of peace loving people thwarted by the myopic greed of a few miserly old farts- Katrina Steiner
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

Simon_Jester wrote:An apocalypse that randomly killed a vast majority of all humans everywhere (such as a global pandemic where no one successfully manages to maintain quarantine) would probably see us reduced to stone/iron age technology. And I say "stone/iron" because in terms of what we could make for ourselves we would likely be essentially like Stone Age societies- we can bash metal into useful shapes, but we can't make it or manipulate it in controlled fashion.

An apocalypse that plays favorites in terms of which areas are hit the hardest (a pandemic that certain islands keep quarantine through, a thermonuclear war, an asteroid impact that devastates coastlines and specific land areas but leaves others unharmed) would probably leave some areas with a more or less intact social fabric where basic machine technology could be preserved, by those locals with the knowledge to apply to it.
I think the opposite is true. All that is necessary to preserve a technological society is a relatively small number of people with 1. high IQ and 2. useful education (or just the survival of books, though it'll take a bit longer). They're not perfectly randomly distributed, but they're spread quite widely. Most people do not and do not need to understand how technology works or be able to reproduce it from scratch.

It would take a very selective killing mechanism targeted at the most useful 5-10% of people to destroy society, or else a geographic change that increases the cost of living (ie. GDP per capita may remain as high as now, but more of it needs to be spent fighting one's surroundings rather than on luxuries). The former genre is not popular but the latter is huge, not just in sci-fi but also in politics and major newspapers: the environmental catastrophe genre. So I disagree with the author's premise. I also think the armchair sociology is grasping but that's an aside.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

PainRack wrote:The foreign culture slide into barbarism genre was probably replaced when Tolkien and Asimov replaced it with Dark Ages meme, which has now morphed into Apocalyptic meme.
There was a gap in the '50s and '60s where they coexisted.

Personally, I think the "success -> decadence -> barbarism" thing started going out of fashion in the late '60s or early '70s, and that might be the time to look at. Coincidentally, that was the era when mass proliferation of ICBMs turned the threat of nuclear war into its modern form of "thousands of fusion bombs that cannot be stopped and will kill you in less than an hour's warning."

What other things might have had the effect?
I think the author simply ignores just how varied the genre is and just how influential a single work can be and the wave effect it causes. However, it can be replaced by other more influential works and that was what happened. Hell, fantasy nowadays is full of urban fantasy due to the Dresden Files and the traditional King revitalise dying culture trope is almost gone.
That's true.

I miss the nobility of spirit associated with high fantasy, to tell the truth. All the "I was a teenage vampire" stuff tends to miss that.
energiewende wrote:I think the opposite is true. All that is necessary to preserve a technological society is a relatively small number of people with 1. high IQ and 2. useful education (or just the survival of books, though it'll take a bit longer). They're not perfectly randomly distributed, but they're spread quite widely. Most people do not and do not need to understand how technology works or be able to reproduce it from scratch.

It would take a very selective killing mechanism targeted at the most useful 5-10% of people to destroy society, or else a geographic change that increases the cost of living (ie. GDP per capita may remain as high as now, but more of it needs to be spent fighting one's surroundings rather than on luxuries). The former genre is not popular but the latter is huge, not just in sci-fi but also in politics and major newspapers: the environmental catastrophe genre. So I disagree with the author's premise. I also think the armchair sociology is grasping but that's an aside.
Well, I'm picturing a disaster that kills off, say, 99.9% of the human race, in which case the number of these highly educated people is limited, and in the long run their contribution to the overall social knowledge is limited.

But I'm describing the extreme limiting case, even in a plague that kills 'only' 90% of everyone I'd expect more of an Iron/Steam Age to emerge, with at least a few technological enclaves that can build and run basic machines.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

Killing 90% of the population purely at random would certainly reduce the possible division of labour and therefore the standard of living, but I don't see why it should reduce the level of technological development. The world would have a population of 700m people which is easily enough to sustain numerous concentrations of high-IQ, high-skilled people. The number of people living in the industrialised world was probably less than 700m in 1950.

99.9% would be more dangerous but only because it would reduce the division of labour dramatically everywhere at once; the isolated communities may not survive the initial convulsion but if all those people were collected together it would not be an unviable population.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

The main problem is that it's not as simple as "90% of population vanishes into thin air," which would be hard enough to deal with, but more manageable than this.

From the start, economic activity will come to a screeching halt for a long time because no one wants to go to work and risk being infected by Death Flu if they can possibly avoid it. Even if transportation networks keep functioning, quarantines would still slow things down tremendously. So even before the plague stops actively killing people, the survivors are in a significantly worse position than if 90% of the human race had just inexplicably vanished into thin air all at once, due to dislocation and things not being stored properly at the beginning of the crisis.

Mass death means massive sanitation problems, which the survivors are ill equipped to handle.

A lot of systems that involve specific special knowledge like "what is the password for this computer" or "where are the keys for this truck" will be inoperable in the post-crisis period, making it very hard for the survivors to use infrastructure even when it's available and in working order.

I'd expect smaller population centers that work on an improvised basis with whatever pieces of technology still function to coalesce at the 90% death toll level, but it'd take a while, and secondary effects might well kill off a large fraction of the people who survived.

Meanwhile, literally everyone is dealing with massive survivor issues (no more than a few percent of married couples can be expected to survive the epidemic, roughly 80% of all children are now orphans, et cetera).
____________________

Go past the 90% level to the 99% level and it becomes even worse, and I think it's somewhere around that level that you'd start to see near-total societal collapse. The problem can't quite be summed up as "division of labor becomes impossible," it's not that simple. The problem is that people don't calmly, rationally step into the shoes of the dead, they are prone to act irrationally, or to do things with very negative long term consequences.

The problem is that in the extreme limiting case, the disaster represents such a massive social phase change that it becomes hard to see how the survivors assemble functioning communities above the "tribe of desperate scavengers" level. Such a group can't sustain enough people with useful skills (i.e. scientific knowledge of metalworking) to accomplish very much.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

I'm very sceptical of psychological or 'morale' effects over physical effects. The same has been said before: of strategic bombing, for instance. In reality the will to survive is not much impaired by circumstances that are beyond one's control. As for possibility, the market is a mesh network, and those are extremely hard to bring down entirely. It might seem that some or other pathway is vital because it is the most efficient and therefore the most used, but if you block it then traffic is routed around, the efficiency drops, but more like to 95% rather than 0%.

Technology is practically the last thing to go, long after the division of labour and just before the last handful of people, because losing technology means that the mean surviving community size is less than that required to include even a few dozen specialists by chance. And the smaller the community size, the larger the stock of excess capital to work with. The way I see it, practically any immediate death rate that doesn't have 100% within the error bars is long-term survivable with the current technological development. The only issue is to ensure that in the initial dislocation, the population does not drop below zero before it starts to increase. 700m is easy. 70m is likely. 7m is pushing it, but possible.

What's a lot more dangerous is that people respond to the crisis by smashing up the market. Most post-apocalyptic novels depict something like War Communism emerging, even if not actually in practice, at least as the goal of the 'good' faction (and always as the goal of the 'evil' faction). Communities coalescing around military camps in zombie movies, and turning into de-facto absolute monarchies of the base commander, are typical. The reason this is a problem is that countries that are run this way are extremely poor even with full access to the world market of current technologies, and that is likely to be true after the apocalypse too. My belief is that these communities will be harder to form than people think, given most survivors will be healthy and probably armed, and that those that do form will be evolutionarily pruned. But it is possible that a bandit-state emerges, with very low standard of living except for the small elite.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

One thing I'd like you to consider is that the extreme efficiency of markets may itself depend on certain conditions of the surrounding socio-political environment. A jet engine is a wonderfully effective means of getting fast, cost-effective transportation... in an oxygen atmosphere, under certain conditions of pressure and temperature, if there isn't too much grit in the air.

A theory of market economics is not the same thing as a fully general theory of economics, you see- it is a model of one system of economics, which may apply only when certain conditions are met. Examples of the assumptions that might break down in a postapocalyptic environment. Maybe not all of them are critical to conventional models of a market economy, but I would be very surprised if none of them are...

-Outright theft is comparatively rare, so that it is practical to accumulate large amounts of capital and stored surplus beyond the minimum for survival. Thefts may be rare because of respect for propriety, because of a sense of communal mutualism, because of threats and law enforcement, but it is nevertheless rare. This assumption tends to break down in an anarchy, or at least risks breaking down.

-Commodities and processes are fungible or nearly so- one unit of something can be exchanged for another, equally functional unit, without too much difficulty. One process for doing something can be feasibly replaced with another that will get the job done without causing any nonlinear knock-on effects. This assumption starts to break down when your community is operating the last functioning tractor in a hundred mile radius. Sure, you CAN go back to horse-drawn machinery, but the opportunity cost of doing so is large enough to provoke an immediate crisis.

-Temporary dislocations of supply are not a matter of life and death. This is true for most earthly commodities, and even in disaster conditions remains true most of the time. Aid organizations, charities, and governments will generally step in to make sure that (for example) drinkable water is available even if the existing supply lines close down.

The problem is that if people can die because of a supply dislocation, then that very will to survive which you suggest is going to cause them to react to a dislocation in very drastic ways. And if that means tearing up the web of precedents and implicit social rules which make a market function, then they will. Very few people are willing to die to keep a free market running. If they have a choice between breaking the market and dying, then it will take massive armed force to stop them from breaking the market.

At which point the mere existence of that armed force changes the rules of the social game, and makes the bandit-state endpoint all the more likely.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

The biggest complaint about the market is that it's too harsh to the losers, which means people who do not produce as much as they consume (or want to consume). While in comfortable times it may be that the complaints of these people should be placated by interventions, even at the cost of lost efficiency, in a post-apocalyptic bid for survival the removal of these people is a feature rather than a bug. Charging $100 for a cup of clean water where it is needed most (and therefore persuading those who have water to bring it there) and killing off preferentially the least useful people if still not enough water can be provided, is precisely what is needed. This is not grit, at least, not in your sense of the word.

Another superiority of the market over War Communism is that it is flexible. In a comfortable society, winners might include men who can manipulate journalists to persuade these net consumers that they will redistribute to them more money than others will. In a post-apocalyptic world, these people might find themselves at the loser end of the queue for a cup of water, behind a guy who knows First Aid or can repair a bandsaw. The politician's skill is no longer marketable and his savings stored in US bonds and equities are now worthless, while bandsaw guy's skill has suddenly rocketed in value and the gun he keeps in the glove compartment of his truck is worth more than its weight in gold. This a change that has happened overnight, and the market will respond in real time. Governments will be much slower to react (although the ultimate outcome will likely be the same) and that lost time will cost more lives.

Now while bandits could destroy the market (which, you might concede, is not the fault of the market!), I think they're not likely the biggest problem. Bandits will only expand to the point they are checked by other armed force, at which point the market re-emerges. It is cheaper for them to trade than to fight. In the case of individuals, this radius is likely to be very small. In the heavily armed rural states of the US, probably not beyond peoples' lawful property anyway, while the cities are in any case uninhabitable in the short term. What's much more dangerous is an authority of more-or-less voluntarily accepted legitimacy deciding to implement economic planning out of misdirected goodwill.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

I think you're trying to map fully-generic defenses of capitalism to an argument where they're not really the applicable ones.

In this context "grit" means, well, anything about a post-apocalyptic environment that makes it hard to rely on a market functioning the way simple macroeconomic models say it should. There are a lot of things that fall into that category. The market's tendency to kill people who cannot afford food is not necessarily grit, but that doesn't mean there is no grit.

Think about Newtonian gravity- a good model for the physics of planetary motion, reliable for nearly all purposes practical today... but it breaks down rather sharply if you wander into the neighborhood of a neutron star or a black hole. Because Newtonian physics makes assumptions that are true or at least harmless under the relatively 'normal' conditions we're familiar with... but which are simply, objectively false in the changed environment.

This is not somehow a statement that Newtonian gravity is morally blameworthy, or that markets are blameworthy. My point is that it is not automatically true that markets will produce optimal outcomes under all conditions, especially if we try to generalize "all conditions" to include very extreme conditions outside the normal human experience.


So my point here is that under the systematically warped social conditions of post-apocalyptic societies, markets simply might not be viable, might become dynamically unstable and fall apart. Whether the market would be more or less efficient would be irrelevant; a house made out of cotton candy might be very pretty and desirable... except that it'd collapse under its own weight and dissolve in the rain.

So saying "a market could preserve XYZ in an apocalyptic scenario" proves little, if the market cannot even preserve itself.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

I'm making the opposite argument: that attributes of free markets that might make them undesireable in comfortable times can be beneficial or even necessities in extreme survival situations. In this latest post you've merely repeated your claim (that markets work worse in such situations) but not substantiated it. As such I don't need to respond at all.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by Simon_Jester »

My basic criticism is that market economics makes no allowance for what happens when starving peasants decide to storm the Bastille. That simply isn't part of the model, any more than relativistic frame dragging is part of the model of Newtonian physics.

If, as a result of these strange effects (like bread riots) the market economy system ceases to function, then as a strictly practical matter we've hit the limit of market economics' power to predict what's going to happen, or to prescribe the best course of action.

It is not about markets work well or poorly. It is about whether they have any survivability at all. A model that works brilliantly as long as the peasants are compliant will lose out if they stop being compliant.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
amigocabal
Jedi Knight
Posts: 854
Joined: 2012-05-15 04:05pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by amigocabal »

Simon_Jester wrote:My basic criticism is that market economics makes no allowance for what happens when starving peasants decide to storm the Bastille. That simply isn't part of the model, any more than relativistic frame dragging is part of the model of Newtonian physics.
This is correct. While starving peasants would be gunned down with machine gun fire if they "storm[ed] the Bastille", the free market no more predicts that than it predicts that courts would impose damages for breaches of contract, or that people who are in the "business" of kidnapping teenage girls and renting out their vaginas against their will would be thrown in prison by law enforcement (or lynched by the girls' families).

In general, the free market does not take into account the existence of law enforcement or a court system.
Formless wrote: Then again there are some in io9's comments section that pointed out that there are analogous motifs in sci-fi of the vanished interstellar civilization that left only ruins. What do ye SDNettizens think?
NBC's Revolution is one example. Showtime's Jeremiah was another example about ten years ago.
energiewende
Padawan Learner
Posts: 499
Joined: 2013-05-13 12:59pm

Re: io9 blog: Decline of the Slide into Barbarism genre?

Post by energiewende »

In the case of an absolute shortage, some people are going to die. The only question is who. In practical terms, the question is what is the best way to decide. It's perfectly true that the losers under whatever system is chosen may try to reverse that outcome by force. That is true of any possible system of decision making. It is however irrelevant to an analysis of which system will produce the best outcome.
Post Reply