2013 Earth vs. 50 Anacreon

[chornedsnorkack]

What do you think would 50 FE Anselm haut Rodric demand on Earth, from various states of 2013?

And what would the various states on Earth answer?

[Ahriman238]

What, the smug Anacreonian survey guy? He'd probably wet himself on discovering a planet with millions of men under arms and nuclear weapons, then run.

[chornedsnorkack]

True - slightly more intelligence might be needed to figure out the weakness of Earth.

But the whole Earth, despite having over 7 milliards of people (Anacreon - rather less than the 19 milliards of 80 FE, let´s make it 16 milliards in 50) and probably several times the GDP of Anacreon, thousands of nuclear warheads and many working nuclear reactors (Anacreon also had many, but 0 working by 50) has not a single ship capable of FTL. Anacreon warships... assume they can reach Earth in 13 hours from Anacreon as they could Terminus.

Anacreon navy could travel FTL to Solar system. The Earth ballistic missiles are not designed to hit a movable object. They just might hit a careless ship on low Earth orbit... but Anacreon ships that stay on high orbit can dodge Earth missiles at leisure.

And bomb Earth with impunity.
Unlike Terminus, Earth has no way to contact Smyrno by either sending a FTL ship or by ultrawave, because neither exist in any state of Earth. The states of Earth ALSO wet themselves - MAD has collapsed because Earth has no way of harming Anacreon.

How will the 2013 Earth governments react?

[Simon_Jester]

Once the Anacreoneans figure out that we know nuclear physics, have nuclear power (and uranium enrichment facilities) but do NOT have space drives, they'll view us as a sort of big plutonium-laden pinata to beat with sticks.

We will react by not wanting to be beaten with sticks, and giving them what they want while figuring out how the hell their idea of "nuclear power" includes things like tiny portable disintegrators and space drives, instead of being limited to huge bombs and even huger power plants.

[chornedsnorkack]

Once the Anacreoneans figure out that we know nuclear physics, have nuclear power (and uranium enrichment facilities) but do NOT have space drives, they'll view us as a sort of big plutonium-laden pinata to beat with sticks.

We will react by not wanting to be beaten with sticks, and giving them what they want

What will they want?

While we do not have atomic knives capable of cutting iron so that it would stick when put together by hand, nor necklaces capable of projecting glow in air (like Hober Mallow had to offer to Korell) we do have some fancy toys. Cellphones will not work on Anacreon (no network stations), but laptops will (provided that someone can figure out a laptop loader that is compatible with whatever the voltage and frequency standards turn out to be on Anacreon).

[Ahriman238]

Some nuclear tools, Anacreon might be familiar with and wanting, but the miniaturization of nuclear power is unique to the Foundation. Mostly the Empire did massive facilities meant to provide for everyone's needs.

At this point in time, Anacreon has descended to feudal semi-agrarianism. They have a substantial surplus of crops, a peasantry to grow them and enough manufacturing interests to seriously hunger for gold, chromium and vanadium, which are probably the first things they'd demand along with nuclear power.

Fortunately, the average Anacreon dandy at this time is quite stupid. They do not grasp how knowledge or science can be an advantage, their internal politics are complex but they their external policies are simple and thuggish. We could probably surrender to them and be ruling their piddling star empire ourselves within a couple of years.

[chornedsnorkack]

At this point in time, Anacreon has descended to feudal semi-agrarianism. They have a substantial surplus of crops, a peasantry to grow them and enough manufacturing interests to seriously hunger for gold, chromium and vanadium,

I admit that chromium and vanadium are needed for manufacturing interests - they have that level. Gold - yes, it has manufacturing uses, but the impression of gold as the natural way to pay taxes suggests that it was mostly used as currency in Anacreon.

which are probably the first things they'd demand along with nuclear power.

And Earth, being just one planet, does not have large surpluses of them. Much better use of Earth capacities would be for Anacreon to send their chromium and vanadium to Earth and get back the items they would have manufactured from them, only much better ones of Earth make. But this still needs some time to adjust Earth factories.

I guess it is pretty likely that, as of 2013, China has higher GDP than Anacreon. And USA+EU could well have bigger GDP than the 4 Kingdoms taken together.

Fortunately, the average Anacreon dandy at this time is quite stupid. They do not grasp how knowledge or science can be an advantage, their internal politics are complex but they their external policies are simple and thuggish. We could probably surrender to them and be ruling their piddling star empire ourselves within a couple of years.

"We"? Who precisely?

Yes, there is a pretty appealing opportunity, of the 25 systems of Anacreon... in fact, of the 25 million systems of the whole Galaxy.
But I am afraid that some states on Earth have certain internal politic/psychological problems of their own with surrender to Anacreon.

Others don´t. I expect that several of them would try exactly to rule Anacreon... or rule with Anacreon.

[gigabytelord]

Just a quick question. When you guys say that earth 2013 has a total combined GDP that is larger than Anacreon's, how exactly are you coming to that conclusion? GDP is determined by total economic and industrial output, and the value of that figure is set by the values of markets currencies, and not to rain on another's parade but the US dollar has no value in space nor does any other major earth currency.

So how exactly are you determining that earth has a larger GDP than the star kingdom in question? In other words, do we know exactly how much these worlds can produce in a given amount of time and it's value.

I'm asking because I genuinely don't know.

[Ahriman238]

Anacreon has a limited population compared to ours, limited industry, an atmosphere hostile to all forms of science and innovation, and crude agriculture lacking in modern fertilizers or any techniques of the Green Revolution.

Details are scarce, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if our world had a higher GDP than the world of Feudal serfdom and a dozen real cities.

[chornedsnorkack]

GDP is determined by total economic and industrial output, and the value of that figure is set by the values of markets currencies, and not to rain on another's parade but the US dollar has no value in space nor does any other major earth currency.

True, but a 2012 US dollar does not exactly have value in 2013.
In some senses it does - you can spend it in 2013, you can also deposit money in 2012 to get something back in 2013, like repayment of a loan or a product to be delivered in 2013.
But there is not a free, two-way trade between 2012 USA and 2013 USA. What you CANNOT do is pay 2012 US dollars to actually GET in 2012 an item invented and produced in 2013.

So how do you assign the values, in 2012 dollars, to US production of 2013, incl. the products that are not available and thus do not have a market price in 2013?
And the whole notion of USA having "economic growth" of 1% or 2%, and the huge importance of the difference between economic depression or recovery, hinges on assigning price to 2013 goods in 2012 money, or vice versa.

Yes, there are problems. Or take the early uses of GDP. It was invented in 1934. It was used in second world war. Well, USA refused to trade with enemies like Germany and Japan (and Germany and Japan could not trade with each other because of the navies between them). But when Hitler was telling Germans to produce cannons instead of butter, then GDP was the measurement of the general ability of Germany, USA or Japan to produce cannons OR butter - the measurement of free-floating resources available.

Now, how do you imagine the 50 FE Anacreon?
Look at it this way: Asimov wrote in 1942... and it shows. What could be a good 1942 example of a Third World country that was huge and that was at least somewhat industrial to be armed?
I like to imagine 4 Kingdoms by analogy with 1940 India or China.
Some GDP-s of 2012 1st and 3rd World:
USA - 51 704
Earth average - 10 100
Mexico - 10 059
India - 1501
Cambodia - 926
Bangladesh - 797
Haiti - 759
Afghanistan - 633
Ethiopia - 490
Democratic Republic of Congo - 231

Now, estimating the GDP of 1938 India or 1936 China in 2012 US$ is not quite easy. But I get the impression that in 2012 prices, 500 US$ per capita is quite typical for such premodern third world economies.

My estimate of 16 milliards of people for 50 FE Anacreon comes from the stated 19 milliards and growing fast in 80 FE.

Unless the 50 FE Anacreon has GDP per capita worth at least US$ 4500 - which is 3 times the GDP per capita of 2012 India - the lone planet of Earth exceeds the GDP of Anacreon. And my guess of 500 US$ per capita would give Anacreon GDP equal to 2012 China (12 times fewer people) and half that of 2012 USA (50 times fewer people).

[Murazor]

Anacreon has a limited population compared to ours,

Even at this stage, Anacreon likely has twice the population of modern Earth, at a minimum.

limited industry

True enough.

an atmosphere hostile to all forms of science and innovation

Unclear.

The post-Trantorian state which was backwards to an hilarious degree was Askone. Anacreon certainly does not have anything resembling a coherent scientifical establishment, but "hostile to all forms of science and innovation" is probably exaggerated.

and crude agriculture lacking in modern fertilizers or any techniques of the Green Revolution.

We know literally nothing about Anacreontian agriculture, except for the fact that they had vast surpluses of all the agricultural products that Terminus could have supplied.

Details are scarce, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if our world had a higher GDP than the world of Feudal serfdom and a dozen real cities.

Even if we have a higher average GDP than Anacreon (not unlikely, even if details are scarce), they still outnumber us by a sizable margin and we have literally nothing that can threaten them in any way, shape or form, unless they are kind enough to come down to Earth to fight it out with us.

[chornedsnorkack]

Anacreon has a limited population compared to ours,

Even at this stage, Anacreon likely has twice the population of modern Earth, at a minimum.

Details are scarce, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if our world had a higher GDP than the world of Feudal serfdom and a dozen real cities.

Even if we have a higher average GDP than Anacreon (not unlikely, even if details are scarce), they still outnumber us by a sizable margin and we have literally nothing that can threaten them in any way, shape or form, unless they are kind enough to come down to Earth to fight it out with us.

Which they would. Would have to.
Look at, say, Mangin.
It was a Trader world, so probably 300 000 souls in 300 FE.
When Haven surrendered, a week after Toran, Mule & Co had fled, the news bulletins reported attack on Mangin: a landing on the planet and ground fighting. The difference was emphasized - Haven surrendered without resistance, Mangin fought on even with ground troops on the planet.

Or look at Bel Riose. He conquered a number of planets in Four Kingdoms - finally Loris. But he complained that a rebellion rose on each planet and they were harder to hold than conquer in the first place.

The question is - what would Anacreon ground forces be like?
How big is Anacreon Army in the first place?
This is NOT obvious. There is a wide range of plausible options.
India around 1700 had standing army (Aurangzeb plus his opponents) of about 1 million, for total population of about 160 millions.
East India Company conquered these armies, with their masses of poorly trained and disciplined cavalry and infantry, with much smaller but well trained infantry. At Plassey, East India Company had 3000 men against 62 000 (20 000 cavalry, 42 000 infantry) and won.
East India Company army did expand. But by 1914, the whole British Indian Army was 155 000 men. While the population of India was twice what it had been in 1700.
What happened to these huge armies that fought English and lost, or who chose to ally with English? They got disbanded. East India Company demilitarized India thoroughly. The nobles and rich landowners whose definition had began with the duty to serve in Mughal army were, in vast majority, turned into rich landowners and zamindars who were allowed nowhere near arms.

Anacreon of 50 FE had about 40 times the population of 1938 India, so 40 times the size of British Indian Army (about 190 000 by 1938) means about 8 millions. Anacreon also had 100 times the population of 1700 India so 100 times the size of Mughal army means 100 million men.

Is the 50 FE Anacreon Army a small elite force of 8 million men? Or does it also include the masses of about 100 million canon fodder? Does the society and military tactics of Anacreon army have use and funding for masses of canon fodder, or do they prefer to keep arms for the small noble and professional elite and leave their masses of peasants and coolies disarmed?

A 1940 army would have some problems fighting man to man against a 2013 army on ground. And Anacreon does not have that many of them to spare or lose on Earth.

If Anacreon expect resistance on or near ground by a well armed and trained 2013 army, like NATO - how would they soften their targets? How could they?

Alternatively, they could use almost (but not quite) as well armed 2013 armies which they find on Earth.

How many bombs would Anacreon Navy have to shoot from space at USA before the 2013 Russian army thinks it safe to actually send Russian ground forces over sea to occupy USA?

The crews of US nuclear submarines know what to do if USA is bombed by Russian ballistic missiles. But if 2013 USA is bombed by an alien navy in space, whose 1940 technology is nowhere near good enough to figure where under the ocean the submarines are, BUT who are unreachable and untargetable by the shipboard ballistic missiles designed for ground targets (and the submarine does not contain workshops to even try building missiles against space targets) - what would the submarine crews do?

[Me2005]

The crews of US nuclear submarines know what to do if USA is bombed by Russian ballistic missiles. But if 2013 USA is bombed by an alien navy in space, whose 1940 technology is nowhere near good enough to figure where under the ocean the submarines are, BUT who are unreachable and untargetable by the shipboard ballistic missiles designed for ground targets (and the submarine does not contain workshops to even try building missiles against space targets) - what would the submarine crews do?

ICBM's may be able to reach targets in space; according to the wiki:

boost phase: 3 to 5 minutes (shorter for a solid rocket than for a liquid-propellant rocket); altitude at the end of this phase is typically 150 to 400 km (93 to 250 mi) depending on the trajectory chosen, typical burnout speed is 7 km/s (4.3 mi/s), up to the speed of Low Earth Orbit.
midcourse phase: approx. 25 minutes—sub-orbital spaceflight in an elliptic flightpath; the flightpath is part of an ellipse with a vertical major axis; the apogee (halfway through the midcourse phase) is at an altitude of approximately 1,200 km (750 mi); the semi-major axis is between 3,186 and 6,372 km (1,980 and 3,959 mi); the projection of the flightpath on the Earth's surface is close to a great circle, slightly displaced due to earth rotation during the time of flight; the missile may release several independent warheads, and penetration aids such as metallic-coated balloons, aluminum chaff, and full-scale warhead decoys.

I'm not sure what programming would need to happen or how submariners are capable of adjusting on their rockets, but they already go into orbit, so you'd need to somehow trigger the bombs to go off in orbit rather than on a land-target. All the tooling that should be required is something to access the programming on the rocket and a way to track where the ships are in orbit. Since we are talking about nuclear weapons, I doubt it's as simple as any laptop or smartphone, but those should be able to do the required programming. Tracking the incoming ships and hitting them is more difficult for any single sub, but for the whole world I'd think we'd be able to figure it out.

That is assuming the aliens are required to fire from an Earth orbit, but I think it's a safe assumption that they'll at least start from there.

[chornedsnorkack]

All the tooling that should be required is something to access the programming on the rocket and a way to track where the ships are in orbit. Since we are talking about nuclear weapons, I doubt it's as simple as any laptop or smartphone, but those should be able to do the required programming. Tracking the incoming ships and hitting them is more difficult for any single sub, but for the whole world I'd think we'd be able to figure it out.

Not the whole world. The part of the world that is targeted - and the assets that are remaining.

So the US submarine crews hear from the radio that the ports nuked happen to include all the US nuclear submarine bases. They therefore cannot go to any base for refurbishment. Two options:
a) Anselm haut Rodric is smarter than he seemed on his diplomatic visit. Or he has some smart staff officers on his flagship, who could correctly interpret what they could observe from orbit.
b) Anselm haut Rodric is an idiot and so is his staff - but someone from Earth tipped him off.
Except there are many options. It could have been any well-informed military from Earth - Russian, Chinese, Iranian, North Korean, Syrian - his representatives visited all of them. Or it could be a defector - Edward Snowden took the occasion of Anselm´s visit to Moscow to go to the Anacreon Navy, and there were some others.
So what would the submarine crews do?

Anselm haut Rodric is a "subprefect" of Pluema. Well, Kingdom of Anacreon was till 50 a "prefecture". There were 25 planetary systems, 6 with "more than one" inhabited planet - reasonable number would be 5 with 2 and 1 with 3, thus 32 planet.

A logical position for a "subprefect" would be to be a governor of a planet. Running the Prefecture and then Kingdom of Anacreon with about 30 "subprefects" (maybe one subprefect governing several planets of the same planetary systems, or maybe subordinating a sparsely settled planet like the ones in Red Corridor to a nearby more populous solar system, maybe not having a subprefect for capital planet Anacreon, but making different arrangements) would seem to make sense. Expecting the subprefect of a planet to fly his squadron to battle and leave a lieutenant in charge of the planet is one of the options, and is not historically rare.

Given the average population of a planet (600 millions in 80 FE, less in 50, so let´s say 500 millions), Anselm haut Rodric was something of a social equal for Viceroy of India (425 million people by Partition).

Do we know his age, or social background?

[Me2005]

Anselm haut Rodric is a "subprefect" of Pluema. Well, Kingdom of Anacreon was till 50 a "prefecture". There were 25 planetary systems, 6 with "more than one" inhabited planet - reasonable number would be 5 with 2 and 1 with 3, thus 32 planet.

A logical position for a "subprefect" would be to be a governor of a planet. Running the Prefecture and then Kingdom of Anacreon with about 30 "subprefects" (maybe one subprefect governing several planets of the same planetary systems, or maybe subordinating a sparsely settled planet like the ones in Red Corridor to a nearby more populous solar system, maybe not having a subprefect for capital planet Anacreon, but making different arrangements) would seem to make sense. Expecting the subprefect of a planet to fly his squadron to battle and leave a lieutenant in charge of the planet is one of the options, and is not historically rare.

Given the average population of a planet (600 millions in 80 FE, less in 50, so let´s say 500 millions), Anselm haut Rodric was something of a social equal for Viceroy of India (425 million people by Partition).

Do we know his age, or social background?

All this is well and good, but I think the problem is pretty open-ended. He'd probably try to demand out-and-out surrender, but wouldn't get it readily, and most of our tech base could be valuable enough that he'd want to keep it intact. If he fights us he destroys our tech base, as all the most capable nations are also the most valuable in that regard. If he tries to land troops on the ground (which he could have done and won readily at Trantor), we would make a close match, assuming they aren't armed with some inconceivable Empire-weaponry.

So really it's a question of whether he can destroy us outright from orbit, and if he can, whether we are or are not worth negotiating with to him. I'd argue that we are, since at the least we have pretty compact computer technology.

[chornedsnorkack]

All this is well and good, but I think the problem is pretty open-ended. He'd probably try to demand out-and-out surrender, but wouldn't get it readily, and most of our tech base could be valuable enough that he'd want to keep it intact. If he fights us he destroys our tech base, as all the most capable nations are also the most valuable in that regard.

Yes, but are the most valuable/capable nations equally unwilling to surrender?

What was the underlying attitude of Anacreon to the Foundation folks as of 50 (not speaking about 80 FE Wienis embittered by the humiliation of 50 FE)? Mutual contempt, yes, but how bad?

It raised Anselm´s eyebrow that Pirenne was not a noble and Wienis railed at Hardin having no drop of noble blood. This suggests that the governor of a comparably sized region on Anacreon, like a district governor being a subordinate of Anselm (probably one of several hundred - not a direct subordinate of Anselm, but people whom Anselm would have used to meeting) would normally be expected to hold noble titles and be of noble birth. Which is not strange - for example, Ancien Regime France used to appoint provincial governors from nobility.

This is separate issue from contempt to science. Lord Dorwin is the example of the elites of Empire - he liked and valued science. And expressed his contempt for the people of Anacreon.

Anselm haut Rodric would have been disinterested in Dorwin´s science, too - but he would have acknowledged Dorwin as a noble of high birth. But not Pirenne - Pirenne and especially Hardin were socially worth contempt for Anselm.

Anselm was not demanding unconditional surrender. He mentioned the offer to give titles and donate manors to the leaders of Foundation.

Was it a false promise to induce cooperation, to be discarded as soon as Anacreon annexed Terminus? Or was it honest intention of Anacreon and the leaders of Foundation were honestly going to be left alone as small nobles on a provincial Anacreontian planet (of peasants imported from Anacreon)?

We know what Foundation did. After Second Crisis, the whole nobility of Four Kingdoms was systematically and mercilessly screwed. Not only Anacreon, not only Wienis and his sons - Sef Sermak annexed all 4 Kingdoms including the 3 who had bailed out Foundation in First Crisis, and redistributed the land. Many nobles fled all over Periphery and brought the word of what happened. Many stayed and held a hatred of Foundation - like Hober was suspected of being a grandson of a baron of Loris.
And 75 years later on Askone - same happened. It is emphasized that in 20 years, not only was Askone a part of Foundation, but Grand Master was penniless.
Rising tide floats all boats. The nobles could have waxed rich with economic growth even while their peasants got out of poverty. They did - till Foundation gained power, and then the Foundation snatched all away and left the nobles poor.
We NEVER have a clearly described case of Foundation keeping faith with any ruler or noble.

What would Anselm and the pre-First-Crisis Anacreon have done to Terminus?

We know what the English did. They do have their track record of perfidy. But by the end of Raj, about a quarter of India was left to Native States - 565 of them. Sure, the English did hold contempt for the "indolence" etc. of Maharajas. But after Mutiny, the English contempt did not extend to actually annexing them. It was the Dominion and Republic who broke these promises.
Plus the class of zamindars. Who benefited a lot from the Raj. Before the Raj, they had been tax collectors who were, true, noble birth and hereditary status, but not entitled to their posts - officials who could be fired or moved, who were entitled only to a share of the income and often owed military and administrative duties for it.
Thanks to the Permanent Revenue Settlement, the officials with duties and responsibilities became landowners with no duties save paying fixed taxes which they were free to delegate to subordinates, and who were assured of their property and the right to extract rent from tenants.

So, how willing is Anacreon to work with existing governments of Earth as their subordinates?
And which governments are willing to work as subordinates of Anacreon?

So really it's a question of whether he can destroy us outright from orbit, and if he can, whether we are or are not worth negotiating with to him. I'd argue that we are, since at the least we have pretty compact computer technology.

Yes, and lots of other things.
But remember - Anselm is negotiating with states. Lots of them.
He can very well make a deal with some states but NOT with others. AND he can delay dealing with some states until others have been dealt with.

So... assume that USA is bombed by Anacreon navy - but Russia is not. Would US submarines respond by launching ballistic missiles on Russia to prevent Anacreon from capturing tech base in Russia?

If Anacreon Navy starts by bombing USA alone and spares at first even NATO allies like UK and Canada. Would USA then launch nukes on Canada or send ground forces across border to Canada just to scorch the Earth and not leave tech base for capture in Canada?

[Me2005]

But remember - Anselm is negotiating with states. Lots of them.
He can very well make a deal with some states but NOT with others. AND he can delay dealing with some states until others have been dealt with.

So... assume that USA is bombed by Anacreon navy - but Russia is not. Would US submarines respond by launching ballistic missiles on Russia to prevent Anacreon from capturing tech base in Russia?

If Anacreon Navy starts by bombing USA alone and spares at first even NATO allies like UK and Canada. Would USA then launch nukes on Canada or send ground forces across border to Canada just to scorch the Earth and not leave tech base for capture in Canada?

Ah, now that's a pickle. If the USA gets wiped out as a show-of-force (assuming that Anacreon can do that), I doubt we'd launch against allies just to keep our world's tech from falling into the hands of the force that wiped us out. They've already shown that they can scorch us, so scorching Earth isn't keeping any power that they don't already have away from them, just some really nice flatscreens.

But I don't think they'd come in and first thing wipe us out, they didn't at Terminus, and I'm not sure they can anyway. They'd come in and negotiate, and that's where I'll step out of the discussion since I've got no idea who would fall to what terms or to whom the terms would even be offered.

[Boeing 757]

Anselm haut Rodric is a "subprefect" of Pluema. Well, Kingdom of Anacreon was till 50 a "prefecture". There were 25 planetary systems, 6 with "more than one" inhabited planet - reasonable number would be 5 with 2 and 1 with 3, thus 32 planet.

A logical position for a "subprefect" would be to be a governor of a planet. Running the Prefecture and then Kingdom of Anacreon with about 30 "subprefects" (maybe one subprefect governing several planets of the same planetary systems, or maybe subordinating a sparsely settled planet like the ones in Red Corridor to a nearby more populous solar system, maybe not having a subprefect for capital planet Anacreon, but making different arrangements) would seem to make sense. Expecting the subprefect of a planet to fly his squadron to battle and leave a lieutenant in charge of the planet is one of the options, and is not historically rare.

Given the average population of a planet (600 millions in 80 FE, less in 50, so let´s say 500 millions), Anselm haut Rodric was something of a social equal for Viceroy of India (425 million people by Partition).

Do we know his age, or social background?

All this is well and good, but I think the problem is pretty open-ended. He'd probably try to demand out-and-out surrender, but wouldn't get it readily, and most of our tech base could be valuable enough that he'd want to keep it intact. If he fights us he destroys our tech base, as all the most capable nations are also the most valuable in that regard. If he tries to land troops on the ground (which he could have done and won readily at Trantor), we would make a close match, assuming they aren't armed with some inconceivable Empire-weaponry.

So really it's a question of whether he can destroy us outright from orbit, and if he can, whether we are or are not worth negotiating with to him. I'd argue that we are, since at the least we have pretty compact computer technology.

Anacreon can easily destroy our civilization from orbit. Even if we were to assume that their ship-mounted weapons are woefully underpowered compared with modern-day Earth, the Anacreonian Navy could simply drag an asteroid from the asteroid belt and threaten to drop it on Earth. There wouldn't be a darned thing that we could do about.

[Me2005]

So really it's a question of whether he can destroy us outright from orbit, and if he can, whether we are or are not worth negotiating with to him. I'd argue that we are, since at the least we have pretty compact computer technology.

Anacreon can easily destroy our civilization from orbit. Even if we were to assume that their ship-mounted weapons are woefully underpowered compared with modern-day Earth, the Anacreonian Navy could simply drag an asteroid from the asteroid belt and threaten to drop it on Earth. There wouldn't be a darned thing that we could do about.

Obviously they should be able to do that, but in the whole of the Foundation series I don't recall such a thing even being discussed, and we know that the Foundation itself didn't have any kind of force capable of stopping something like that happening during the time we're dealing with. There might be something keeping them from doing it normally in the Foundation-verse (Standard planetary defenses? MAD?) that wouldn't be in place in ours, or there might be a reason that they can't (drives aren't good enough and FTL is used for getting around, though that seems unlikely).

Shoot, they should be able to ram one of their ships into Earth if nothing else, and do at least as much damage as we could do to ourselves.

So maybe it's just that they won't or don't want to do that. Though I'd be willing to chalk it up to Asimov's outdated understanding of space in this case and assume that yes, they can destroy us completely from orbit. Then it goes back to being a game of figuring out which nation folds first, and as I said, that is something I can't even begin to speculate on.

[chornedsnorkack]

Obviously they should be able to do that, but in the whole of the Foundation series I don't recall such a thing even being discussed, and we know that the Foundation itself didn't have any kind of force capable of stopping something like that happening during the time we're dealing with. There might be something keeping them from doing it normally in the Foundation-verse (Standard planetary defenses? MAD?) that wouldn't be in place in ours, or there might be a reason that they can't (drives aren't good enough and FTL is used for getting around, though that seems unlikely).

Shoot, they should be able to ram one of their ships into Earth if nothing else, and do at least as much damage as we could do to ourselves.

So maybe it's just that they won't or don't want to do that. Though I'd be willing to chalk it up to Asimov's outdated understanding of space in this case

Not specific to space.
Remember the date. Foundation was published May 1942 to August 1944, except the Wedge/Traders, and that´s out of order. Foundation and Empire in 1945 - do not know which months.
This was after Guernica, Rotterdam and Blitz. Foundation began before air attack on Germany became successful. But even by 1945, Germany managed to maintain military production and replace some of the losses under the heavy bombing till the ground forces managed to break in at the end of March.
We do not hear much comment about the effect of space bombing. Traders, in August 1944, state that people will put up with a lot at wartime - including living in caves half mile deep and eating objectionable foods.
Asimov wrote knowing how the WWII dumb bombs could be put up with. But one small problem:
In 1940s, airplanes were not used to haul coal. Nor was much food carried by plane. Even now is not.
For a reason. Air freight was expensive, still is.
Air freight is too expensive for high volume, low volume goods like the coal Hober´s poor space coolie grandfather was hauling.
If the spaceship freight costs at Anacreon were cheap enough to haul coal then the navy of Anacreon could also haul bomb payloads much bigger than the Second World War ones - so they would be more effective even if equally dumb and imprecise.

Now ramming is another thing! We know what happens when our spaceships ram Earth. Messy mass suicide, and harmless fireworks 50 km up - the small pieces of metal and charred bone that reach ground have decelerated to safe speeds long ago.
We never know how dense or strong the spaceships are. Harmless breakup in upper atmosphere is quite possible.

and assume that yes, they can destroy us completely from orbit. Then it goes back to being a game of figuring out which nation folds first, and as I said, that is something I can't even begin to speculate on.

How would the 2013 US army or military economy function under prolonged but modest rate bombing with 1942 type dumb bombs?

[Boeing 757]

It has been a while since I read Foundation, but is Anacreon really as advanced as 1942 Earth? It seems farfetched that a civilization which has access to FTL drives and hyperwave communications would not be able to build a decent guidance system for a bomb...but then again I suppose that it's possible given that the Foundation-verse still uses old-school 40's film projectors and reels.

[Simon_Jester]

I really don't think it's fair to assume that they are primitive, more so than real-life Earth, in areas where Asimov simply could not feasibly have predicted the march of technology. Or where doing so would have actively detracted from the quality of his story by introducing complications he'd have to explain to the reader.

We know Asimov could imagine intelligent robots because he was publishing stories featuring them at the same time he wrote the Foundation stories. But I suspect he didn't introduce them, simply because they undermined the story he was trying to tell with the Foundation stories.

[chornedsnorkack]

Asimov wrote knowing how the WWII dumb bombs could be put up with. But one small problem:
In 1940s, airplanes were not used to haul coal. Nor was much food carried by plane. Even now is not.
For a reason. Air freight was expensive, still is.
Air freight is too expensive for high volume, low volume goods like the coal Hober´s poor space coolie grandfather was hauling.
If the spaceship freight costs at Anacreon were cheap enough to haul coal then the navy of Anacreon could also haul bomb payloads much bigger than the Second World War ones - so they would be more effective even if equally dumb and imprecise.

I do get some doubts about the divergences between Anacreon warships and freighters. Warships are designed to maneuver around opponents who are shooting back. Freighters are not.

But still. The freighters MUST deal with accelerations of landing and takeoff in planetary gravity. The warships CANNOT maneuver at accelerations that the crews would not endure. The margin cannot be all that big.

On the other hand, while people are limited in their accelerations, explosive shells and fuses, not so much. The bombing may involve, not dumb bombs "dropped" from spaceships but dumb shells "fired" from guns of some sort.

In that case, payload limitations would make perfect sense. A freighter full of stones or coal is not a practical way to bomb Smyrno, and Anacreon Navy is limited in the amount of chromium and vanadium steel they can put in explosive shells, and machines and expert workers to produce explosive shells that would not explode in gunbarrel.

Was planetary bombardment a dangerous undertaking? Did the navies normally assume that their target would be shooting back, effectually?

[Boeing 757]

I really don't think it's fair to assume that they are primitive, more so than real-life Earth, in areas where Asimov simply could not feasibly have predicted the march of technology. Or where doing so would have actively detracted from the quality of his story by introducing complications he'd have to explain to the reader.

We know Asimov could imagine intelligent robots because he was publishing stories featuring them at the same time he wrote the Foundation stories. But I suspect he didn't introduce them, simply because they undermined the story he was trying to tell with the Foundation stories.

Simon, I agree. There is still a lot of stuff in the Foundation books that real-life Earth does not have like commonplace holographic communications, whacky force fields and psychic probes among others. In the later prequels and sequels, Asimov adds more technical stuff like AIs and R2-D2 like droids (although they're much more primitive than Spacer robots). The science in those early books was never meant to be accurate or precise...take Anacreon's fossil-fueled interstellar starships, for example's sake. The concept is exceedingly laughable in hindsight, but Asimov employs it to play off the whole "we've reverted to barbarism" angle.

[chornedsnorkack]

Hint - where I have serious problems with suspension of disbelief is the Independent Merchants.

Haven of 300 FE was described as "few hundred thousand" people hiding in caves. Let´s make it 400 000.
This is the largest world of Merchants, and Haven, Mnemon and Iss together were half the total.
It would make sense to have a total of 2 million merchant population by 300 FE - 1 million in the 3 big ones, and the other million in the 24 smaller ones. Radole was the smallest of the 27.

At the end of the day, Foundation always had technical advantage over all opponents. It did not suffice against 4 Kingdoms, because of their advantage of numbers and militarization, and it did not suffice against Korell and Bel Riose because in both case the attacker had advantage of militarization (Foundation having neglected serious fleet buildup in the meantime) - but it was always significant.

Whereas the Traders never had technology that Foundation did not have. Terminus alone was by 50 FE bigger than any Trader world - by 150 FE it was 15 million people. Plus the annexed subjects - 4 Kingdoms of 60 milliard people by 80 FE and room to grow, Askone, Korell, Siwenna, the number of regions Foundation would annex offscreen after Korell.

Just how could the Independent Merchants ever threaten Foundation, or defend themselves if noticed?