Upgrade an Industrial Era army: Weapons or Logistics (RAR!)

[Zor]

In this scenario you have a continent on another planet populated by humans. Said continent with a population of some 50,000,000 divided into two states: the Kingdom of Altman and the Holy Dominion. The Kingdom is a fairly progressive constitutional monarchy with an active parliament, universal suffrage and a good set of legal rights by 20th century standards. The Holy Dominion in contrast is a militaristic theocracy based around an aggressive monotheistic religion which believes that it should spread the holy word with the sword and flame, an active caste system (including full condolences of slavery) and a set of strict religious laws which is keen on nasty punishments (though there are still some peoples who don't buy into this religion in areas recently conquered by the Holy Dominion). The Kingdom has a population of ten million and can mobilize up to a million soldiers. The Theocracy has forty million people and can mobilize up to four million warriors. Both nations are preparing for war and in three years time there will be war.

Both of said nations are at a 1850s to 1890s level of technological development, which had been attained thanks to the discovery of what the Dominion calls "Divine Caches". This planet was colonized by humans using STL sleeper ships about 1,400 years ago by two colony ships which arrived within three years of each other. Things went well for the first fifty years until there was an incident which led to political tension between the two groups which in sixty years culminated in a war which destroyed all the major settlements, killed off a large section of the population, left more of the population to die due to starvation and disease in the aftermath and were harassed by solar powered airborne kill drones afterwards. The scattered survivors eventually ended up living in a new dark age with medieval level technology. However before the war an organization managed to scatter a few aides for rebuilding an industrial society in catches, some of these on this continent which were discovered about a hundred and fifty years ago and bit by bit led to a new industrial revolution.

There are steam powered factories. There are trains and steamships as well as a few experimental steam powered land vehicles. Mechanical aides such as reaping machines, cultivators and disc plows are in widespread use if still mostly animal powered. There are telegraphs and heliographs for long range communications. There are phonographs and primitive electric light bulbs. In terms of military equipment the average soldier has a breech loading rifle, both sides have developed rifled cannons and explosive shells, Ironclads and screw frigates patrol the seas, gatling guns are still being experimented with. The Kingdom has a slight lead over the Dominion (bolt action rifles using brass cartridges and double action revolvers compared to Dominion's trapdoor rifles using paper cartridges and cap and ball revolvers, more of it's artillery is breechloading) but despite this it is still faces an enemy nation intent on conquering it with four times its land and resources to overwhelm them with sheer manpower.

However, they are about to get a boost which might turn the tide in their favor. Off the coast of the Kingdom in a water tight container they will find a relic from the colonial era, a mostly intact colonial fabricator intended for military purposes which can take in raw materials and put out finished products. What you choose is what said fabricator can choose: you have two options...

• SMALL ARMS: The Fabricator can make firearms comparable to 21st century guns intended to secure colonies against aggressive predators. These include hunter rifles (7.5x60mm semi automatic rifles with 15 round detachable magazines, comes with a detachable scope), PDWs (5x25mm small automatic weapons with 50 round horizontal magazines, effective range 250 meters, 900 rpm with selective fire), Shotguns (12 gauge pump action) and sidearms (5x25mm pistols with 25 round magazines). The fabricator can make 100 rifles, 100 sidearms, 75 shotguns and 75 PDWs a day, as well as 30,000 rounds of ammunition in magazines, spare parts for each gun and maintenance kits. It also will make 200 'hazard vests' a day, which are the equivalent of type III BPVs.
• UTILITY TRUCKS: The Fabricator can make three electric utility tucks a day. Each truck weighs in at 1200 kilograms, has four wheel drive, airless tires, a rugged construction, a trailer latch, 100kw in engine power and can store up to 5,000mj of power in a swappable power cell. It can be recharged either by hooking them up to a power station, or by letting them sit out in the sun as each truck comes with a "tarp" of high efficiency solar panels. In addition to the trucks it can make spare parts as well as an additional solar tarp and power cell. Though unarmed these vehicles will be a major logistical boon to any army and will allow soldiers to deploy and redeploy quickly.

If you choose one the blueprints for the other will be permanently corrupted. If you choose neither, both truck and small arms files are corrupted.

Which one do you choose?

Zor

[Borgholio]

I would choose the firearms. The trucks would be nice, as mobility is key to modern warfare. But having a massive boost in firepower would let you spread your armies more thinly and thus you wouldn't necessarily need to be more mobile. The ability to manufacture them that quickly would mean you can draft citizen-soldiers and rapidly train them on how to use and reload these weapons as well. This would help to neutralize the Dominion's numerical advantage, which really is the biggest threat here. The trucks would let you move more rapidly but you'd still be outnumbered 4 to 1 with weapons that are *barely* better than your opponent.

[Batman]

Not to mention that with 5J power cells those trucks aren't going to be all that useful.

[Borgholio]

I'm sure that's a typo...he probably meant 5,000 megajoules...not millijoules.

[Adam Reynolds]

One question is that of railroads. If effective railroads exist within the Kingdom, trucks would have much less value, even if they are able to operate anywhere. This was an advantage enjoyed by both the Germans in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as well as by the Union over the Confederacy in the ACW. This would actually have a larger logistics boost than a handful of vehicles. Given the option, I would choose the ability to produce new railroad instantly track rather than trucks. Railroads are vulnerable to partisans or air attacks but obviously neither of those are a serious threat here.

In general logistics are more useful than weapons, but in this case weapons might be better due to the ease of use that would allow them to somewhat make up for their numbers disadvantage. Trucks would be much harder to maintain and use without the fundamental understanding of how they work. Taking apart a more modern firearm is much easier for someone who is used to the 19th century version.

Trucks should be more advantageous in general, as vehicles advanced far more in the 20th century than firearms. The US Army still used small arms invented in the 1910s in 2015, This is obviously not true for vehicles. There is also the fact that trucks would be more useful from a technology standpoint given that they would show industry that such a thing is possible. More modern firearms wouldn't have quite the same value.

I would choose the firearms. The trucks would be nice, as mobility is key to modern warfare. But having a massive boost in firepower would let you spread your armies more thinly and thus you wouldn't necessarily need to be more mobile. The ability to manufacture them that quickly would mean you can draft citizen-soldiers and rapidly train them on how to use and reload these weapons as well. This would help to neutralize the Dominion's numerical advantage, which really is the biggest threat here. The trucks would let you move more rapidly but you'd still be outnumbered 4 to 1 with weapons that are *barely* better than your opponent.

With three years to build, it would lend a force of either just over 3200 trucks or 38000 firearms(a third of which are merely handguns). Not bad, but not nearly enough for a million man force to be either mobilized or equipped with modern weapons. That number of weapons, especially given the lack of proper machine guns, would not exactly be much more effective.

I wonder if such a strong tech boost to the Kingdom would cast doubt upon the Dominion's religion of precursor worship. If the Gods were on their side, why were the heretics getting this new power? Though it would be more likely that the use of new tech would produce a crusade that would cause the Dominion to go up in arms at all costs to destroy the heretics and crush their blasphemous use of the new technology.

[madd0ct0r]

With the trucks, you can afford to target dominion rail lines.

That said, it seems likely the dominion will use trench warfare which makes the trucks useless and the better handguns ineffective.

I'm thinking ww1 here. What was the brit/Germany population ratio?

[Purple]

Neither of those options are fantastic. But I'd go for the guns. Bottom line is that at least they'll come in handy during trench raids. And I can set up cavalry units armed with them as a sort of mobile reaction force until I have enough to arm everyone. Because let's face it we need something done RIGHT NOW. Those religious lunatics sure as hell won't wait for us to arm up once they get wind of us having a magical factory.

[Brother-Captain Gaius]

The question really comes down to the generals. Both options are tempting, but are ultimately only a minor boon if the generals don't adapt their armies' doctrine to take advantage of the new technology. These are both armies which have not yet fought a WW1-analog, and are probably organized and thinking in mid-19th century terms of battle lines and infantry formations, with perhaps some partial understanding of the utility of railroads (or their equivalents) and telegraphs. Even in the American Civil War, it took years for generals to begin to wrap their heads around the ramifications of accurate rifle fire. In the case of the firearms upgrade, you have something approaching Clarke's Law in that the weapons provided are too many degrees of separation away from the existing firearms - the Kingdom seems to be around 1880-1890 at most in firearms understanding, and that's mostly in rifles themselves. With no real, true doctrinal understanding of submachine guns and machine guns and their relationship to bolt-action rifle infantry combat, they might struggle to effectively integrate their new semi-auto battle rifles (borderline assault rifles, almost). To an 1880s general, a semi-auto rifle may very well just be a snazzy way for a regiment to pour more volley fire on the enemy!

The trucks face similar but less severe problems. They'd undoubtedly be used effectively as logistical support, moving food, ammo, and supplies around, or at least as far as road infrastructure allows. Their true advantage in providing motorized infantry may very well be lost on the generals. To avoid defeat at the hands of this Dominion, the Kingdom essentially needs to pull off a preemptive blitzkrieg, but that requires understanding how to use the trucks to their fullest. And even if the concept of motorized infantry is understood in a strategic sense, there still may be huge shortcomings on the tactical level. One of the key (tactical) advantages of motorized infantry is their ability to carry a lot more firepower (especially machineguns), and that advantage is not present. Furthermore, it is unlikely the Kingdom will be able to devise any kind of modernized small unit infantry tactics until the war has dragged on for quite some time, further mitigating the usefulness of truck-mounted infantry formations.

In short, the tech is there, but the doctrinal experience required to make use of it probably isn't, and would require years of direct warfare to really bring doctrine up to speed with the technology.

[Starglider]

The main relevant advantages of the guns are higher rate of fire from a rifle company and more effective snipers. The Dominion already has these advantages, further increasing it for a couple of divisions (that can be equipped) is probably not going to be decisive. If it is possible to rebuild the assault rifles into light machine guns then it would be somewhat more attractive, but the 30,000 rounds per day limitation would be crippling for a war on this scale.

The trucks are potentially transformative, both in their original form and as components to be rebuilt. The engine output of just one is equivalent to a WW1 tank and I'm sure they could be combined into larger and/or armoured vehicles as required, while lacking some of the major disadvantages of actual WW1 tanks.

[Eternal_Freedom]

I'm wondering if, since we have 3 years to prepare with this new cache of supplies, if it is possible to take the blueprints for the guns and ammunition and manufacture them in other factories. The ammo shouldn't prove too difficult, they are already manufacturing brass cartridges for bolt-action rifles in what must be their millions.

I'd also take examples of the PDW's, as the only automatic weapon, along to the Kingdom's best gunsmiths and say "this works fine in this calibre, build me a version in rifle calibre that can fire for days" and then see what they come up with.

If we can get the existing industry to be able to build the guns (even if it takes 18-24 months to get set up for production) we'll have a much larger volume of guns and ammunition available. In which case the best bet is to dig yourself in on the border and inflict as many casualties as possible with the new weapons when the Dominion tries their massed infantry charge (because what else, other than cavalry, are they going to do?).

[Eternal_Freedom]

Ghetto edit: how would the "hazard vests" (Type III bullet proof vests apparently) stand up to the weapons used by the Dominion? Because if they can effectively protect wearers from enemy small arms fire, I can see them, and the sidearms/ahotguns/PDWs being issued to Stormtroops/special forces kind of units for trench assaults.

[Purple]

Ghetto edit: how would the "hazard vests" (Type III bullet proof vests apparently) stand up to the weapons used by the Dominion? Because if they can effectively protect wearers from enemy small arms fire, I can see them, and the sidearms/ahotguns/PDWs being issued to Stormtroops/special forces kind of units for trench assaults.

Wikipedia defines type IIIA as:

New armor protects against 8.1 g (125 gr) .357 SIG FMJ Flat Nose (FN) bullets at a velocity of 448 m/s ± 9.1 m/s (1470 ft/s ± 30 ft/s) and 15.6 g (240 gr) .44 Magnum Semi Jacketed Hollow Point (SJHP) bullets at a velocity of 436 m/s (1430 ft/s ± 30 ft/s). Conditioned armor protects against 8.1 g (125 gr) .357 SIG FMJ Flat Nose (FN) bullets at a velocity of 430 m/s ± 9.1 m/s (1410 ft/s ± 30 ft/s) and 15.6 g (240 gr) .44 Magnum Semi Jacketed Hollow Point (SJHP) bullets at a velocity of 408 m/s ± 9.1 m/s (1340 ft/s ± 30 ft/s). It also provides protection against most handgun threats, as well as the threats mentioned in [Types I, IIA, and II].

So it will stop any handgun your enemy can plausible use. But I am unsure about rifle fire. I did some very basic math just calculating the muzzle energy and ignoring all other factors. And the most energetic of the above is the.44 at 436 m/s at about 1.48 KJ. Now that sounds like a lot. But even pre-1890 rifles such as the Model 1871 Mauser have between 1.6 and 2 times as much energy. So you'd need at least level IV protection to do anything against those.

On the plus side, if you can't make enough of those vests you can just issue steel substitutes like they did in WW1. Sure, it's going to suck for the user but he will be pretty much immune

[Mr Bean]

Let's talk raw numbers here

Option A gives us (Assuming 1080 days to prepare, I assume it takes a week or two to get the magic box fed plus supply delays)
Your talking

108,000 Rifles
81,000 Shotguns
81,000 PDW's
108,000 Pistols
216,000 Body Armor
32,400,000 rounds of ammunition.

First question is that 30k per GUN TYPE or 30k TOTAL my choice of how many rifle rounds and how many pistol rounds.
Because as it stands Assuming I toss away all the shotguns PDW's and pistols that gives my rifles three hundred rounds each which is just enough to get through a week of warfare assuming moderate fighting. Likely my fancy new guns if I equip more than five divisions with them will shoot themselves dry inside of the first three days of war.

Or I could get 3,240 Electric trucks

If the armament industries can supply the required hundred rounds per soldier per day of the new ammunition types (The armament industry needs to supply one million rounds per day minimum every day for three years for soldiers to have the 100 per day for half a year stockpile of fighting) then I take weapons. The new guns will be given to six divisions of the best soldiers as my counter punch force. The rest will be retained for training or used to equip special units of Assault Squads in existing divisions or handed to weaponsmiths for study.

If I can't produce the require ammo (The box produces 970,000 rounds to few per day) I'll be taking trucks as otherwise the guns are a VERY temporary item and something to learn from while the trucks have all sorts of dual purpose uses (Step 1 Slap armor on it make it a War-Truk)

[Zor]

First question is that 30k per GUN TYPE or 30k TOTAL my choice of how many rifle rounds and how many pistol rounds.

30k per gun type, which adds up to 90K total (Sidearms and PDWs use the same ammunition). It is also possible to make black powder rounds which would work if at decreased effectiveness. The kingdom is also experimenting with nitrocellulose.

Zor

[orbitingpluto]

On the plus side, if you can't make enough of those vests you can just issue steel substitutes like they did in WW1. Sure, it's going to suck for the user but he will be pretty much immune

Not immune- artillery splinters shouldn't get through, nor common pistol rounds of the time, but rifle shots could penetrate it, depending on range. In the tests conducted after the war by the New York Metropolitan Museum of Art(which one can read online) service rifle ammunition couldn't penetrate at 300 yards, but closer than that and the bullets would presumably go through. The same guy who did the video on the armor got a chance to test a reproduction set, though the reproduction lacked the same carbon content as the original and wasn't heat treated, but the video he shot testing the reproduction set is still interesting enough to see.

[Purple]

On the plus side, if you can't make enough of those vests you can just issue steel substitutes like they did in WW1. Sure, it's going to suck for the user but he will be pretty much immune

Not immune- artillery splinters shouldn't get through, nor common pistol rounds of the time, but rifle shots could penetrate it, depending on range. In the tests conducted after the war by the New York Metropolitan Museum of Art(which one can read online) service rifle ammunition couldn't penetrate at 300 yards, but closer than that and the bullets would presumably go through. The same guy who did the video on the armor got a chance to test a reproduction set, though the reproduction lacked the same carbon content as the original and wasn't heat treated, but the video he shot testing the reproduction set is still interesting enough to see.

The forum cut off my post for some reason... Anyway my point was that he'd be as immune as he would be wearing a level IIIA vest.

[orbitingpluto]

The forum cut off my post for some reason... Anyway my point was that he'd be as immune as he would be wearing a level IIIA vest.

Getting cut off is one thing, but saying immune is still an poor word choice. Resistant is better- armor can fail, especially when you keep in mind getting a torso sized plate of armor to have the same quality of metal, and the right level of hardening is a tough thing to do. The Met's report pointed out the the vests they had on hand to test did have uneven hardening and the metal content varied a bit, but even if the Kingdom doesn't have the same problems sourcing consistently good steel or ensuring a good hardening, there's still cumulative damage.

Also, pointed out in both videos is that the trench armor shown makes it difficult to shoulder a rifle, and is some heavy stuff to have to wear as well. Historically they might have been used in a few trench raids, but the actual purpose was to provide some protection for static machine gunners(who couldn't just duck into the trench) or guards who would likewise end up stationary for long periods of time and don't have to shoulder a rifle. For the average soldier, the armor is too much of a hindrance, even if it might be a bit useful on a trench raid, depending how strong the particular soldier is and what he intends use as his weapon.


On the topic itself, I don't quite care enough about the Kingdom to really think about which is more suitable; either way, there's only so much a few thousand trucks or almost a hundred thousand guns could do, and it really depends on generalship to use them effectively. I'd flip a coin to decide, then leave the Kingdom to what chance/fate has given them. Hope they have good enough leadership to use what they get.

[Venator]

What is the transport capacity of the trucks? Being generous and assuming the truck could carry 20 soldiers and tow a trailer with the same number, you'd have a total transport capacity of just over 131,000 (or 13% of the army).

Compared to firearms, where if you count the rifles and PDWs (with an effective range of 250m, you could passably deploy them as front-line infantry weapons too), you can arm 19% of the army with a modern long-range weapon, and provide body armour for almost 22%.

If the trucks have on-board fabrication abilities, including producing new power tarps, I think they would provide a power generation advantage well in excess of their actual moving capacity - letting you field things like radio-equipped outposts and such with off-grid energy supply. At 1850s-1890s tech level, could they really exploit that, though?

I would choose firearms. Having units with both armour and automatic weapons as spearhead units, supported by conventionally-armed troops. Hopefully, reverse-engineering as mentioned above could provide MG and additional arms support.

The shotguns and sidearms are less applicable if we look at flexible maneouver warfare, but useful if it dissolves into trench warfare - armoured troops with shotguns making very useful stormtroopers. The handguns (and other arms) would also be handy for spies, partisans, and (if the situation was desperate enough to require it) terror squads. Any force multiplier counts with a 4:1 numerical disadvantage, including keeping them away from the front completely.

[mr friendly guy]

Didn't Harry Turtledove write a scenario where time travelling South Africans give the South some machine guns and they defeat the Union armies?

Anyway, in this case I choose the guns. I can't imagine trying to occupy the entire Dominion (hence logistics less important here, even if I can get the troops there, I don't have the numbers to occupy), so my best bet would be a war of attrition and play it mostly defensive initially. Bleed them dry then occupy some pieces of their land and then unindoctrinate the population. Of course if they believe we are evil they might flee by themselves. Over time settle it with sympathetic people until the next round and so on. This most probably isn't going to end because of one battle, and it will most probably be lots of battles over generations like the Byzantines / Muslim conflicts before one side breaks.