Haven isn't stupid [RAR]

[Irbis]

Yes, I know the deck was heavily stacked against them seeing that everything left-leaning/liberal in HH is evil communism and will never work no matter how good idea it is, all its adherents being dumbest people in the world.

Like Haven's stipend for one, despite all economists agreeing basic income is good idea that will boost creativity and economy growth, Haven is somehow uneducated backyard trailing after Grayson, reduced to raid poor, undeveloped capitalistic worlds to maintain that, despite humanity's almost post-scarcity economy and Haven being one of best developed systems in whole of human space...

Anyway, to the point. Something that bugged me since Short Victorious War - what if Admiral Parnell didn't grab idiot ball and instead of feeding his forces piecemeal into traps, executed Operation Beatrice (fielding 150 SD supported by 50 DN and 170 BB) right at the start of war, directly attacking the only objective the war had, Manticore?

Following by, if attack is successful, destroying Manticoran forces at each terminus either piecemeal or as they translate, immediately using San Martin to put his damaged ships in home territory and pull in reinforcements?

Everything else, like Manticoran forces being dispersed due to Haven raids, stays the same. Let's say attack happens around the time of First Battle of Seaford Nine in series, due to extra time needed to concentrate forces.

A side note - back then, I simply assumed making really big fleet attack is somehow infeasible for some reason, and that Haven being idiots again and again attacking in manageable fleets instead of using their overwhelming force to smash enemy formation against targets they couldn't abandon is somehow warranted. Then, came Operation Beatrice, followed by Solarian fleet twice as big showing at least someone in HH universe understood the principle of force concentration, but of course, it was too little, too late by then.

[Crazedwraith]

So yeah... if you rig the system specifically so Haven wins... Haven wins. What's your question here?

[Simon_Jester]

Yes, I know the deck was heavily stacked against them seeing that everything left-leaning/liberal in HH is evil communism and will never work no matter how good idea it is, all its adherents being dumbest people in the world.

Like Haven's stipend for one, despite all economists agreeing basic income is good idea that will boost creativity and economy growth, Haven is somehow uneducated backyard trailing after Grayson, reduced to raid poor, undeveloped capitalistic worlds to maintain that, despite humanity's almost post-scarcity economy and Haven being one of best developed systems in whole of human space...

I think we can justifiably fill in the blanks that what went wrong with Haven wasn't the welfare system, it was the political elite.

One of the big problems with a post-scarcity economy is figuring out what everyone's going to DO all day, and Haven appears to have chosen (initially) a route reminiscent of the WALL-E approach: provide everyone with a bounty of free money, food, and housing, and let the state take care of everything, and never you mind how the state does so.

This is at least conceivable- that a population might well grow so indifferent to real politics and policy that it begins to decay due to complacency.

It is explicitly stated that the government of the PRH has, for about the past 150 years, been a ruling elite of mostly-hereditary legislators, whose grip on power is maintained by their bargains with the political 'machines' that control the votes and opinions of the masses.

Anyway, to the point. Something that bugged me since Short Victorious War - what if Admiral Parnell didn't grab idiot ball and instead of feeding his forces piecemeal into traps, executed Operation Beatrice (fielding 150 SD supported by 50 DN and 170 BB) right at the start of war, directly attacking the only objective the war had, Manticore?

Eh, he followed basically the same strategic doctrine everyone else was at that time- based on the assumption that it was much safer and more sensible to capture the enemy's peripheral bases before striking deep into their territory. Especially since if you are gathering your entire fleet for a strike on a single, critical target... the enemy will see that you are doing this, wonder where all your ships are, and redeploy to cover the most critical targets. You can't easily concentrate your own forces without giving the enemy advance notice of the need to concentrate yours.

I certainly won't deny that Parnell made a mistake, and launching a direct attack on Manticore proper would have worked better.

But it would have been a gamble, especially in light of Havenite ships' maintenance problems and the unknown X-factor of Manticoran superweapons. The prewar skirmishes have made it clear Manticore enjoys a considerable edge in firepower per ton.

[As it happens, the main superweapon Parnell would have encountered would be towed pods, but it's made quite clear that N Manticoran capital ships with pods on tow can reliably beat N, or even 1.2N if not 1.5N, capital ships that lack such pods]

Following by, if attack is successful, destroying Manticoran forces at each terminus either piecemeal or as they translate, immediately using San Martin to put his damaged ships in home territory and pull in reinforcements?

Everything else, like Manticoran forces being dispersed due to Haven raids, stays the same. Let's say attack happens around the time of First Battle of Seaford Nine in series, due to extra time needed to concentrate forces.

So basically, what if Manticore somehow picks up a really big idiot ball to replace the small one Parnell dropped, and does not notice that "hey, all the Havenite squadrons dispersed to their forward fleet bases have... gone... I wonder if that means they're massing to attack a single target... OHCRAP."

Well, in that case, Haven likely punches out Manticore, wins the war, and seizes control of the Manticore Wormhole Junction. The Pierre coup never happens because it was triggered by the perceived mishandling of the opening round of prewar provocations, the Legislaturalists get their "short victorious war." Haven merrily continues corrupt politics-as-usual until such time as the Mesans take over the galaxy.

A side note - back then, I simply assumed making really big fleet attack is somehow infeasible for some reason, and that Haven being idiots again and again attacking in manageable fleets instead of using their overwhelming force to smash enemy formation against targets they couldn't abandon is somehow warranted. Then, came Operation Beatrice, followed by Solarian fleet twice as big showing at least someone in HH universe understood the principle of force concentration, but of course, it was too little, too late by then.

The obvious problems here are:

1) Launching your attack at a reasonable distance from your own bases. A fleet that suffers battle damage and casualties far from its home base is in trouble even if it wins; if it loses the consequences are disastrous (see the Havenite Second Fleet's fate after Second Sidemore)

2) Having enough ships to spare for an attack that you don't suffer bruising, damaging hits in the time it takes to prepare that attack. Basically, you have to have enough ships to not only stop the enemy fleets from seizing any important point (e.g. the fleet base you're planning to use to support your all-out attack), but also to go on the offensive at the same time. Weber set things up so that neither side could really afford to use a majority of their fleet for offensive operations without leaving their core territory uncovered... with the following exceptions.

2a) Haven had such a margin of error in their battleship fleet, which was useless against capital ships and therefore freely available to hit enemy rear area targets. However, these ships were too old and weak to punch out Manticore proper, so they had to hit secondary targets. They did so, with mixed success.

2b) Manticore and Grayson built up the Eighth Fleet... but we are explicitly told that this process took months if not years of drawn out negotiations and haggling and there was a tremendous struggle to get all the ships needed for that decisive offensive deployed, fully upgraded, and prepared... without fatally compromising the need to leave defenses covering everything else. Even then, by the time Eighth Fleet was ready to roll out, large parts of Manticoran home space and occupied space were covered lightly enough to be vulnerable to Havenite raids and counterattacks.

2c) Haven built up enough ships for Beatrice... but they had a whole star system devoted solely to manufacturing immense numbers of capital ships as fast as possible, AND they had every reason to think that it didn't matter whether they left their territory uncovered to send their fleet to Manticore, because if they didn't win with a single throw of the dice within a month or two, they'd lose the war to Manticore's Apollo missiles. So they knew they were gambling with this all-out attack, and took the gamble anyway because the alternative was worse.

2d) The League sends about 70 capital ships to Spindle and about 400 to Manticore... but the League Navy has 2000 capital ships in active reserve with about 9000 more on standby, plus literally unnumbered swarms of lighter escort ships. And despite Manticore dicking around with light forces via the wormhole network, they don't need to position the bulk of their capital ship strength to defend against enemy attacks. They have far more ability to mass for decisive attacks because they're so big that their idea of a mild exertion is their enemy's idea of overwhelming numbers.

[Ahriman238]

Yes, I know the deck was heavily stacked against them seeing that everything left-leaning/liberal in HH is evil communism and will never work no matter how good idea it is, all its adherents being dumbest people in the world.

Like Haven's stipend for one, despite all economists agreeing basic income is good idea that will boost creativity and economy growth, Haven is somehow uneducated backyard trailing after Grayson, reduced to raid poor, undeveloped capitalistic worlds to maintain that, despite humanity's almost post-scarcity economy and Haven being one of best developed systems in whole of human space...

Be fair, Haven is way ahead of Grayson until their meteoric rise, fueled by immense Manticoran investment.

And yes, the narrative shifted more towards the corruption causing problems than the BLS in later books. Hopefully a ton more details will be available in House of Lies.

Anyway, to the point. Something that bugged me since Short Victorious War - what if Admiral Parnell didn't grab idiot ball and instead of feeding his forces piecemeal into traps, executed Operation Beatrice (fielding 150 SD supported by 50 DN and 170 BB) right at the start of war, directly attacking the only objective the war had, Manticore?

They probably would have all died, while inflicting horrific losses on Manticore. Which had near-parity in hulls plus a few technical tricks that Haven didn't. Haven would probably absorb the losses better and ultimately prevail in the war but, well, future generaiton would replace the phrase 'Pyrrhic victory' with 'Manticoran offensive.' Please note that a decisive strike against the Manticoran system was considered, planned and discarded for precisely this reason.

Following by, if attack is successful, destroying Manticoran forces at each terminus either piecemeal or as they translate, immediately using San Martin to put his damaged ships in home territory and pull in reinforcements?

Doable, if tricky to coordinate, but assuming that initial victory is a stretch. They'd have to overcome the Junction Forts to ship in reinforcements or send home their ships for repair.

A side note - back then, I simply assumed making really big fleet attack is somehow infeasible for some reason, and that Haven being idiots again and again attacking in manageable fleets instead of using their overwhelming force to smash enemy formation against targets they couldn't abandon is somehow warranted. Then, came Operation Beatrice, followed by Solarian fleet twice as big showing at least someone in HH universe understood the principle of force concentration, but of course, it was too little, too late by then.

Again, Parnell originally pitched four plans. Seize Basilisk and blitz the Junction from Basilisk/Trevor's Star. Seize Grayson and then directly on to Manticore. A two-pronged assault through Grayson and Hancock, and finally hit Manticore up and down the frontier to degrade and scatter their strength.

Funny enough, this sort of all-or-nothing strike in-universe is considered the mark of either desperation or an armchair-tactician. Since anyone with FTL has the ability to deep-strike if they don't mind the risks of getting too far from their supports, space navies tend to be very defensive minded, and only attack with whatever is left once they're feeling pretty secure. Where was the biggest and baddest Manty fleet for the duration of the Haven Wars? Sitting on Manticore. What did White Haven's amazing Third Fleet do after taking Trevor's Star? Hold it for the duration. And the storied Eighth Fleet after Manticore? Became Home Fleet.

[Guardsman Bass]

Like Haven's stipend for one, despite all economists agreeing basic income is good idea that will boost creativity and economy growth, Haven is somehow uneducated backyard trailing after Grayson, reduced to raid poor, undeveloped capitalistic worlds to maintain that, despite humanity's almost post-scarcity economy and Haven being one of best developed systems in whole of human space...

The BLS was a poorly designed Basic Income, at least from what I remember. You only got it if you were poor, meaning Dolists had a severely negative incentive to work more (doing so would result in you losing the BLS). But aside from that, Weber does make a good point about the potential risks of it, particularly the way it can generate a dangerous spiral as demands for a greater BLS lead to greater spending, driving greater inflation that reduces the BLS's real purchasing power, increasing demands for a rising BLS, and so forth.

[Simon_Jester]

Well, quite honestly, the only way it could have gone THAT wrong was if Haven did the following:

1) Exploit the extreme productivity of Honorverse societies to pay out a 'basic' living stipend that would actually be quite comfortable by normal standards

2) Take advantage of political machines to establish the corrupt and oligarchical Legislaturalist regime, essentially using control of the BLS to maintain control of a voting block that would rubberstamp the government.

3) Over intergenerational timescales, systematically neglect the educational system to the point where the nation's technical infrastructure and ability to manage its industrial enterprises decays. Any Weberverse society probably COULD function with 50% of the population as unproductive drones while the other 50% manage a heavily automated economy... but to do this requires the people who actually do any work to have a good education and manage their operations efficiently according to good practices. Once oligarchical corruption and political dogma start interfering with the efficiency of the automated economy, that economy collapses.

4) The results of this might well be inflation and economic stagnation, both of which would contribute to the way large parts of the Dolist population seems to be living in 'slum' conditions despite the fact that their planet can still afford to construct hundreds of flying space battleships. The BLS can't even be held constant once inflation kicks in, and meanwhile the real economy collapses.

It's hard to imagine any modern society actually screwing up a welfare state this badly, but Haven appears to have managed.

[Q99]

I gather the problem was Haven wasn't a welfare state that got out of control, rather it was a state with a corrupt elite who started paying people not to work in order to prevent uprising. Hence it being far less effective than a welfare state should be.

[SpottedKitty]

And yes, the narrative shifted more towards the corruption causing problems than the BLS in later books. Hopefully a ton more details will be available in House of Lies.

I have a vague memory that one of the recent books either hinted or outright stated that at least part of this instability came from behind-the-scenes nudging by Mesa. Or am I misremembering something?

[Ahriman238]

No, you're right, Mesa apparently engineered a lot of Haven's slide into a corrupt, expansionist state.

[SpottedKitty]

In that case, I can hardly wait to see how the same historical events from the two* different perspectives are treated in House of Lies and House of Shadows — an event-for-event comparison might make... interesting reading.

* Possibly three, if you count the viewpoint from inside the Onion.

[Simon_Jester]

No, you're right, Mesa apparently engineered a lot of Haven's slide into a corrupt, expansionist state.

I doubt they required a lot of pushing once the Legislaturalists took charge.

[Mr Bean]

No, you're right, Mesa apparently engineered a lot of Haven's slide into a corrupt, expansionist state.

I doubt they required a lot of pushing once the Legislaturalists took charge.

I've been thinking about this for awhile all Mesa had to do was start exactly two social movements and handful of special action assignments. First remember Mesa thinks in the centuries ++ timescale so before prolong all you needed to do was reward corruption (Solly companies doing favors for the most corrupt officials thus gaining more power) and taking apart the underpinnings of the BLS (IE make the people into drones by sabotaging the education apparatus).

Anyone to big comes along? Nothing a sex scandal or air car accident can't fix. Also you can just wait and undo the reforms after they are out of office. Reward the corrupt, punish the just and wait five generations and you get Haven prior to Short Victorious War.