SD.Net World Redux Comment Thread IV

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Because any sane country would close its borders or at the very least institute quarantines and heavy inspections to prevent infected persons entering?

For two whole months?? Not even SARs had that much an adverse effect after countries in question were removed from the WHO watch list.

And cessation of banking and stock exchange activities?? PeZook, not even at the worst part of the Asian Financial Crises, which saw some bourses falling as much as 75% or more did that even happen. Are you exaggerating or something? Mind you, trade within Asia was severely disrupted, and practically every Asian economy, excepting China, contracted by 2-20% or more (for example. S. Korea had a drop of "$170.9 billion fall in 1998 was equal to 33.1% of the 1997 GDP" according to Wikipedia.)

I would estimate there would be a global recession, but certainly not on the scale you are suggesting. It's not as if none of the companies in question are even bankrupt.

[PeZook]

For two whole months?? Not even SARs had that much an adverse effect after countries in question were removed from the WHO watch list.

Well, for the entire period of martial law at least. I erred to be on the safe side, and would certainly be glad if someone corrected me, but we instituted martial law about two weeks before the CSR strikes on Shep (right after we tacitly approved the Astarian counterattack), and only ended it recently, which gives circa 75 days for contagins to burn out. If that's excessive, well, I'll be damn glad to have 50 billion instead of 150 GDP contraction

And cessation of banking and stock exchange activities?? PeZook, not even at the worst part of the Asian Financial Crises, which saw some bourses falling as much as 75% or more did that even happen. Are you exaggerating or something? Mind you, trade within Asia was severely disrupted, and practically every Asian economy, excepting China, contracted by 2-20% or more (for example. S. Korea had a drop of "$170.9 billion fall in 1998 was equal to 33.1% of the 1997 GDP" according to Wikipedia.)

It's not a mere financial crisis, but cessation of all economic activity for an extended period of time. I want to prevent a run on the banks and rapid liquidation of stock assets which can cause a financial crisis and compound already existing problems with consumer spending. It's essentially a break for people to take a deep breath and stop panicking. And, of course, for enterprises reliant on foreign trade to not have to do payments on credit for a short while.

I would estimate there would be a global recession, but certainly not on the scale you are suggesting. It's not as if none of the companies in question are even bankrupt.

Yeah, I'm trying to prevent a wave of bankrupcies. If trade picks up quickly, the emergency measures will be rescinded quicker.

[Siege]

Why did international trade fall to that extent? In game time, that shouldn't happen in more than.. what? 2 weeks?

Some nations spent months under martial law/total quarantine (which, considering the evil shit that was tossed around, isn't anything but prudent). That's months in which international commerce amounts to zip, which is bound to affect the world economy in a pretty bad way.

And FUN and the FTO can bugger off, there is no way I'm going to let just any tom dick and harry play around in Japanistan proper.

Wait, what? Why should the FTO be involved with Japanistan? I say frack that, we've got our hands full with our own continent. As I see it, Karmic's suggestion is just that: a suggestion. It's got nothing to do with the FTO.

Also: FTO big boom coming right up...

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

It's not a mere financial crisis, but cessation of all economic activity for an extended period of time. I want to prevent a run on the banks and rapid liquidation of stock assets which can cause a financial crisis and compound already existing problems with consumer spending. It's essentially a break for people to take a deep breath and stop panicking. And, of course, for enterprises reliant on foreign trade to not have to do payments on credit for a short while.

Won't the cessation of bank and stock market activites even make things worse? In one swift stroke you squash flat consumer spending since people are afraid of spending, and companies, heck, they can't even draw upon their reserve cash to tide over the crises since they don't have any cash. And how do you expect people to get their paychecks? In effect, zero liquidity for 2-5 months. Not least, it might instead postpone the inevitable bank runs/stock exchange when people rush to either withdraw their funds and sell stocks. Unless you are suggesting that basic banking activities such as access to bank accounts will continue at the minimum.

Not to mention, this will instead be a time for governments to dig from their reserves money to stimulate the economy, which I assume every country has a sizable reserve, unless you have been using all of it to drive your socialist policies.

Yeah, I'm trying to prevent a wave of bankrupcies. If trade picks up quickly, the emergency measures will be rescinded quicker.

Could we instead get the entire Old Continent Governments together to instead make some confidence building measures and to restimulate cross border trade across the continent; such as common customs/medical checks across the country to give clear guidelines on the movement of people and goods. After all, I would dare say that 90% of trade takes place within the Old Continent itself.

[PeZook]

And how do you expect people to get their paychecks? In effect, zero liquidity for 2-5 months. Not least, it might instead postpone the inevitable bank runs/stock exchange when people rush to either withdraw their funds and sell stocks. Unless you are suggesting that basic banking activities such as access to bank accounts will continue at the minimum.

Hmmm...these are pretty convincing arguments. Yeah, let's assume we'll allow withdrawals of limited amounts of cash and stock trading by companies.

Not to mention, this will instead be a time for governments to dig from their reserves money to stimulate the economy, which I assume every country has a sizable reserve, unless you have been using all of it to drive your socialist policies.

I've been running a budget deficit for the last three years...Keynesian spending will be practically impossible here - but I am maintaining social spending at previous levels, despite a contraction in available funds. Hence the massive military cuts.

Could we instead get the entire Old Continent Governments together to instead make some confidence building measures and to restimulate cross border trade across the continent; such as common customs/medical checks across the country to give clear guidelines on the movement of people and goods. After all, I would dare say that 90% of trade takes place within the Old Continent itself.

That would be great! I feel stupid for not coming up with it earlier

[Lonestar]

Hey Coyote...

What are the statistics on that awesome piece of kit of yours? I'm thinking about letting your guys put their money where their mouths are and sponsoring a FASTA launch with and Eagle as a payload

MSA launches buddy, no FASTA launches for the MESS!

[PeZook]

MSA launches buddy, no FASTA launches for the MESS!

Yeah, let's also develop propertiary standards to make cooperation as hard as possible! We can even make MSA and FASTA radios explode if they try to talk to each other!

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

MSA launches buddy, no FASTA launches for the MESS!

Yeah, let's also develop propertiary standards to make cooperation as hard as possible! We can even make MSA and FASTA radios explode if they try to talk to each other!

Worse come to worse, I'll plow in money to develop the module. In any case, with this economic crises to persist for 2-3 years, I say, we are in no hurry.

[PeZook]

Well, FASTA has accumulated enough funding to develop the lander module - I just thought we'd save some cash by using the Eagle, and spend the remainder on an extra mission or two.

EDIT: Additional benefits would include interagency operability. I'm thinking mostly of rescue missions, but supply runs etc. will also be important. Standardized avionics and procedures will greatly ease the conquest of space.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Well, FASTA has accumulated enough funding to develop the lander module - I just thought we'd save some cash by using the Eagle, and spend the remainder on an extra mission or two.

EDIT: Additional benefits would include interagency operability. I'm thinking mostly of rescue missions, but supply runs etc. will also be important. Standardized avionics and procedures will greatly ease the conquest of space.

Well, if it can't be helped, there is more than enough expertise throughout the SNC to work the module in 2-3 years.

[Siege]

Why would this crisis last for three years? There's no structural problem (apart from the disappearance of all trade & investments in Astaria and Shepistan, but that doesn't account for much of my economy at least), it's just the sudden shock of international commerce grinding to a halt. After the quarantines lift, all the goods that were stockpiled can be exported again. There's no real loss of either supply or demand here insofar as I can see, and consumer confidence should pick up again after it turns out the world didnt end. It's still a bad hit for the economy, but whyever would it take that long to recuperate?

[PeZook]

Why would this crisis last for three years? There's no structural problem (apart from the disappearance of all trade & investments in Astaria and Shepistan, but that doesn't account for much of my economy at least), it's just the sudden shock of international commerce grinding to a halt. After the quarantines lift, all the goods that were stockpiled can be exported again. There's no real loss of either supply or demand here insofar as I can see, and consumer confidence should pick up again after it turns out the world didnt end. It's still a bad hit for the economy, but whyever would it take that long to recuperate?

It depends wholly on a gazillion of factors. The key here is to prevent collapse of financial markets: as you observed, the "real" economy isn't touched, the infrastructure is okay, etc.

You need to prevent a bank run (see discussion with fingolfin), a stock market collapse and a wave of bankrupcies caused by halting of the revenue stream. GDP contractions will even out in at most two years, as production picks up again (since they were caused by a stoppage in production not, say, bombing the shit out of factories).

We'll live.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

In all likelihood? The economy will take 2 years to recover. 1 year for everything to right itself, then another to restructure and then growth starts to kick start.

Buttt... any economy that's heavily export oriented will be hit the hardest and might outright collapse. Then there's Lonestar, who's just came out of a war, and then hit by this, and there are a few FTO nations that might have a fragile economy from the start.

And all it takes is for one country to crash to send ripples.

[DarthShady]

BTW, Shady, it's nice to see there's someone to take Shep's place. Really, didn't we just have a huge biowar over his fetish for killing entire populations?

Dude, you do realize I was joking?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

BTW, Shady, it's nice to see there's someone to take Shep's place. Really, didn't we just have a huge biowar over his fetish for killing entire populations?

Dude, you do realize I was joking?

If it was true, the Emperor Heraclius IV will pay him a visit to give him a whack in the head.

Anyhow, we should have that meeting to discuss economic issues, along with the SNC meeting thereafter.

[DarthShady]

I can make the same tanks, and you get to support an FTO buddy. Come on, whaddaya say?

Get the fuck out of my business deals you capitalist bastard.

Hmm, alright.
240, right?

Yes.

If it was true, the Emperor Heraclius IV will pay him a visit to give him a whack in the head.

Comrades, there is nothing to worry about. The Premier is a sane man(most of the time).

Anyhow, we should have that meeting to discuss economic issues, along with the SNC meeting thereafter.

Will you be our gracious host?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Will you be our gracious host?

As I stated in the news post, yes, I offered Constantinople as the site of such talks.

[PeZook]

Count us in. I'll send in a delegation of experts and the prime minister (he doesn't have a name yet ), while myself I'll attend the bioweapons ban conference.

[Master_Baerne]

I can make the same tanks, and you get to support an FTO buddy. Come on, whaddaya say?

Get the fuck out of my business deals you capitalist bastard.

Tell me, how much do you value your left arm?

(off camera) Socialist pig.

[Shroom Man 777]

Shroom will be visiting the WIBBLE - that's what he'll call it and that's what the rest of the world will informally call it, much to all of YOUR DISMAY!

Melchett can go to that economic talk thing and visit his favorite country in the world - Byzantium!


And PeZook, mang! The SUBMARINES, goddamn it!

MY MOM!


EDIT:

At least I saved my economy by not declaring Martian Law.


EDIT 2:


I think it would be cool if Skimmer's Japanistani character ended up committing seppuku with a frisbee, or other forms of ritualistic suicide, before the Emperor of Japanistan.

Yes. He shall absolve his dishonor by swallowing the golden ritualistic throwing disk to die in shame!

[RogueIce]

Well, I think I'll kick it off with President Shinra opening the conference in Cancun, Wilkonia. In a speech where he most certainly will not be referring to it as "WIBBLE" no matter how much the insane Shroomanian PM might try and think otherwise.

Because Cancun is awesome. And since it's there, the WIBBLE acronym won't work. Mwahahahaha!

EDIT: Damn you Shroom, you took the Baerne reference out. Oh well.

EDIT2: And the conference has begun in Cancun, Wilkonia! You will all note I do not call it the WIBBLE, and even made a point of informing PM Shroom the 777th of that fact.

[DarthShady]

The conference is off to a great start.

[Raj Ahten]

Just poking my head in real quick to say I'm going to have to officially pull out of this game. I am just way to busy at work to give the game the attention necessary to run Indhopal the way I would like. (It also looks like I might have stopped at the right time, what with biowarfare attacks and so on.)

Sorry to see you go, I hope things ease up for you in the future.

Thanks.

It looks like I'm going to be pretty much slamed for the next six weeks or so while I am in training. There are weekly tests that I have to pass or I will no longer be employed, so no STGODS for awhile. If this game is still going on then I should be able to jump back in :crosses fingers:.

[TimothyC]

Oh, Alaska is at the conference where ever it is. I've sent My VP, Dr. Rice, backed up by my Medical Adviser Dr. Martha Jones, and my science adviser, Dr. Doctor.

[K. A. Pital]

Gromyko has been sent.