SDN World 3 Commentary Thread II

[Lascaris]

The only change is maybe we should go to 10d10 or 5d20 and roll for percentage successful. It would give us a fair bit more room to work with than the rather odd 18 point scale. But that is the only suggestion I have.

There is this evil a factor in the equations. This could be getting weighted as a result of die rolls to take into account random factors. And still produce much better results.

[CmdrWilkens]

The only change is maybe we should go to 10d10 or 5d20 and roll for percentage successful. It would give us a fair bit more room to work with than the rather odd 18 point scale. But that is the only suggestion I have.

Hrm? What is it you're proposing with this? Use the resulting value as a "percentage" to determine success?

Yes, if you roll a, say, 45 then you are 45% successful. Well 45% successful may still (depending on the circumstances) result in obliterating your opponent. Take for example the Mexico-Colombia war.

Crossing the border was and 18 on 4 division affair, rolling a 45 would probably still mean success but I fail to entrap the enemy forward elements and am slow to move forward (instead of 18 mi the fist day I only go 12 or 13). Alternatively 45% in attacking say Colon likely would mean I lost 2 divisions and at least 1 BB.


Honestly I would prefer a system where the extremes are more likely than the middle. Now I get the bell curve aspect of 3d6 (well I know the 2d6 curve but I can see how the 3d6 works) but my own experience, and this is just mine, is that things are likely in war to either really well or straight in to the shitter.

[RogueIce]

Sent out a PM to interested parties, reposting here so everyone can see it:

Just as a note the United States will be making a call to a conference to resolve the Mexican-Colombian War on D+14, or a day or two after the front line has reached its stalemate, whichever comes first. The US will be doing so as a member of the Panama Canal Board and will be inviting the other Canal Board members to the talks, as well of course as the belligerents.

So I'm letting you guys know as a heads up, but I obviously can't start it until we've reached that point in the war. Case in point: I'm not sure if Brazil will be one of the warring parties yet.

Also, this is a plea to not try and jump me on my story point (it does make a bit of sense that Mexico, at least, would be likely to listen to the US, and since I'm part of the Canal Board Colombia will probably work with us too).

So basically, once I see us hit that progress point in the Story Thread and I'm online, I'll make a post sending out invitations and a call to the conference and all that good stuff.

[Raj Ahten]

The holiday season is rather hectic for me, so I'll be taking a little break from posting for awhile. At the absolute latest I should be able to resume at the beginning of January and likely much sooner.

[Norseman]

The holiday season is rather hectic for me, so I'll be taking a little break from posting for awhile. At the absolute latest I should be able to resume at the beginning of January and likely much sooner.

Can we at least assume that you won't be attacking / sinking my task force? Note Brazil will not be at war during its transit to the Bolivarian Union.

[CmdrWilkens]

The holiday season is rather hectic for me, so I'll be taking a little break from posting for awhile. At the absolute latest I should be able to resume at the beginning of January and likely much sooner.

Can we at least assume that you won't be attacking / sinking my task force? Note Brazil will not be at war during its transit to the Bolivarian Union.

Then it would be suicidal for him to do so (or for your Admiral to have attempted sinking his ships). Such a gross breach of the peace would place Brazil in the position of provoking war. Simply put if you sink a vessel flagged to another nation you are not at war with that alone would be sufficient cause for war (think the USS Maine).

Anyway your ships probably get through but somebody would likely as not let me know they are coming.

Also since Colombia has no airplanes and an Air Tech of 0 that means either those MGs are mounted wing high or after shooting one down I will be able to find the nefarious truth of communist conspiracy when they are discovered with synchronizers

Steve, I'm gonna try and get on AIM tonight for the rolls at D+8/9 to about D+11/12 after which if Brazil doesn't get involved I will likely be asking for a ceasefire to begin discussing a means to find a permanent peace.

[RogueIce]

Steve, I'm gonna try and get on AIM tonight for the rolls at D+8/9 to about D+11/12 after which if Brazil doesn't get involved I will likely be asking for a ceasefire to begin discussing a means to find a permanent peace.

Hey now, you got my PM (or you should have). Don't go stealing my long-planned diplomatic initiative just because it took you forever to advance a measly two weeks in a war.

[Ryan Thunder]

Also since Colombia has no airplanes and an Air Tech of 0 that means either those MGs are mounted wing high or after shooting one down I will be able to find the nefarious truth of communist conspiracy when they are discovered with synchronizers

Quad-linked 14.5L80s on the wings?

Steve, I'm gonna try and get on AIM tonight for the rolls at D+8/9 to about D+11/12 after which if Brazil doesn't get involved I will likely be asking for a ceasefire to begin discussing a means to find a permanent peace.

I'll remind you (again) that this invasion of yours is not like assaulting some abused colony out in the middle of nowhere; you're occupying the equivalent of New York State. The default state of Panama is as sovereign Gran Colombian territory.

I've yet to see you acknowledge this, by the way, it'd be nice to know that you're keeping it in mind.

[CmdrWilkens]

Steve, I'm gonna try and get on AIM tonight for the rolls at D+8/9 to about D+11/12 after which if Brazil doesn't get involved I will likely be asking for a ceasefire to begin discussing a means to find a permanent peace.

I'll remind you (again) that this invasion of yours is not like assaulting some abused colony out in the middle of nowhere; you're occupying the equivalent of New York State. The default state of Panama is as sovereign Gran Colombian territory.

I've yet to see you acknowledge this, by the way, it'd be nice to know that you're keeping it in mind.

Sure it is, but prior to that it was part of the Viceroyalty of New Granada the seat of which is vacant. The Emperor of Mexico by descent of authority from the Viceroyalty of New Spain which has been subsumed as one of the titles held under his primary grant of authority as Emperor can lay claim to the Viceroyalty as the terms under which is was dissolved lacked the right as it did not come from the authority which created it in the first place. Simply put if I actually wanted to lay claim to the territory I'd have a legal argument for it. Since I'm not engaging in a 16th century Royal land grab but rather a crusade against nefarious communists (who also have far to strong a global military-economic position for my liking) then such legality doesn't matter. I know you think I'm trying to seize Panama, I'm not. It would be a bitch to manage as a colony and it would be hellish as as part of sovereign Mexico since that would require pissing on Spain and reclaiming Costa Rica while also requiring Nicaragua to be subsumed within Mexico (right now its a client Kingdom rather than a part of my HT). I'm doing this because it ultimately makes Mexico the dominant player in Caribbean affairs and it would drastically cut in to your ability to counter me in the future.

Anyway I fully expect that while your internal police have managed to quash most rebellion there were no fewer than 4 revolutions between the 1820s and actual Panamanian independence in the real world so I rather suspect there is a strong enough movement to form a provisional government if one that will, admittedly, need a lot of outside help.

[Steve]

Um, Wilkens, Ryan's position is that in this world the policies of Gran Colombia have made the Panamanian population, in majority, supportive of the government and their continued part in it, not as historical when Panama, due to the Darien Gap, being almost disconnected from Colombia in fact. And if I'm not allowing Lascaris to fiat widespread Uruguayan dissatisfaction with Spain and desire for union with Cisplatina without MoP's approval, I'm certainly giving Ryan the right to decide to a great extent the desires of his own population.

[CmdrWilkens]

Um, Wilkens, Ryan's position is that in this world the policies of Gran Colombia have made the Panamanian population, in majority, supportive of the government and their continued part in it, not as historical when Panama, due to the Darien Gap, being almost disconnected from Colombia in fact. And if I'm not allowing Lascaris to fiat widespread Uruguayan dissatisfaction with Spain and desire for union with Cisplatina without MoP's approval, I'm certainly giving Ryan the right to decide to a great extent the desires of his own population.

Fair enough then, iron boots stopping on the necks of dissent it is

[Steve]

What do you mean by that?

[CmdrWilkens]

What do you mean by that?

There should have been a at the end of that, I haven't formulated an occupation policy should one actually prove needed

[RogueIce]

Logs for Wilkens' latest offensives:

(12:18:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yup, so anyway dice rolls
(12:19:00 AM) sbbigsteve: Yes.
(12:19:10 AM) RogueIce: Pacific:
Clearing the Gulf of Panama
Surface Action
Sub Action
(12:19:21 AM) cmdrwilkens: Like I said I'm committed to everything except the Atlantic landing right now
(12:19:30 AM) cmdrwilkens: for that I just want to know my odds first
(12:19:50 AM) cmdrwilkens: So for those, question comments or concerns?
(12:22:22 AM) cmdrwilkens: Everybody does see what this refers to yes?
(12:22:49 AM) RogueIce: Does your bombardment work at all on the forts or do you die as Shep insists you would, basically?
(12:23:14 AM) cmdrwilkens: Whoa, I'm staying at least 10mi outside of Fuerte Panama's range so that won't affect this
(12:23:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: I figure we can handle that at that time if that's okay with ya
(12:24:22 AM) sbbigsteve: GoogleMaps hates me.
(12:24:24 AM) RogueIce: I thought you were asking about Fort Sherman.
(12:24:36 AM) cmdrwilkens: I will be
(12:24:55 AM) cmdrwilkens: The Pacific Action I'd like to get out of the way first since I'm committed to it regardless
(12:25:00 AM) RogueIce: Ok.
(12:25:31 AM) RogueIce: Engage surface patrols
Heavy fleet units (Mexicana class, Radetzky class, and Tegethoff class) will engage any surface units with long range (20,000+ yards) gunnery on D+8 before withdrawing to open waters
(12:25:45 AM) RogueIce: First roll.
(12:25:56 AM) nerd359: What are they engaging?
(12:26:15 AM) sbbigsteve: Monitors and subs I believe.
(12:26:21 AM) sbbigsteve: Also a few cruisers.
(12:26:30 AM) nerd359: 2 sub rolls then
(12:26:33 AM) nerd359: 1 for subs
(12:26:42 AM) nerd359: second for surface combat
(12:26:43 AM) RogueIce: Subs are different. Well at least he's engaging them seperately.
(12:26:50 AM) nerd359: Oh
(12:26:56 AM) nerd359: /facepalm
(12:27:08 AM) RogueIce: Pacific Submarine Squadron
14x S-class Analogues
2x Tender Submarines
Units will lie in wait while surface units engage, this is a continuation of the D+6 attacks.
(12:27:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Depending on whether or not Ryan still has them out after I sunk some of D+7
(12:27:52 AM) cmdrwilkens: I'm engaging whatever I find with surface units first and with subs as targets of opportunity
(12:28:25 AM) RogueIce: I don't think Ryan mentioned anything about what his Pacific ships were doing.
(12:28:52 AM) RogueIce: And as Wilkens points out, he'd be dumb to sortie his monitors and cruisers again.
(12:29:09 AM) cmdrwilkens: During the D+6/7 attacks he had them patrolling in that area (thus I was able to sink 1 and damage another)
(12:29:11 AM) RogueIce: Though he might send those subs out.
(12:29:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: Subs are less likely since my recon squadron is stationed along the coast
(12:29:53 AM) cmdrwilkens: But doable
(12:30:37 AM) RogueIce: Well, one hopes the Mexican Navy learned their lesson after taking losses to subs before.
(12:30:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: BTW that was referring to my aerial recon squadron
(12:31:11 AM) RogueIce: Probably send them out at night again.
(12:31:17 AM) cmdrwilkens: I took 3 moderate losses and have since then sunk almost all of his cruisers and half of his monitors
(12:31:35 AM) sbbigsteve: Was trying to remember what you sunk and what you hit.
(12:31:38 AM) sbbigsteve: Wasn't a cruiser and monitor?
(12:31:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: I sunk 1 CA and hit 1 MN
(12:32:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: In the northern action I sunk a shitload more
(12:32:33 AM) sbbigsteve: I know.
(12:32:35 AM) cmdrwilkens: The monitor was torpedoed but limped home
(12:35:29 AM) RogueIce: So I guess we ask ourselves: what would the Mexican Fleet be engaging? Those Colombian CAs and Monitors would be suicidal to try and play tag with the heavy ships of the Mexican Navy.
(12:36:22 AM) sbbigsteve: He said that they'd move into Panama City port.
(12:37:07 AM) cmdrwilkens: Okay so no rolls?
(12:37:42 AM) cmdrwilkens: For those two items I mean
(12:39:03 AM) sbbigsteve: Yep.
(12:39:12 AM) sbbigsteve: So, amphibious movement?
(12:39:13 AM) nerd359: I have to go
(12:39:19 AM) nerd359 left the room.
(12:39:21 AM) sbbigsteve: I can't load Googlemaps.
(12:39:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: Link should be in this chat
(12:40:04 AM) RogueIce: Amphibious Movement
Do the ships get caught in the open
Landing Success
Rangers success (attacking Gap Bridges downstream)
(12:40:09 AM) cmdrwilkens: Is it not working?
(12:40:13 AM) RogueIce: First one shouldn't need the map.
(12:40:43 AM) sbbigsteve: The link works.
(12:40:49 AM) sbbigsteve: But Google maps isn't loading right for me.
(12:40:55 AM) sbbigsteve: It's not just your's.
(12:40:58 AM) RogueIce: The Pacific Landing...that's the XII Corps why the fuck over to the east?
(12:41:04 AM) RogueIce: *way
(12:41:07 AM) sbbigsteve: I noticed it yesterday, Google Maps won't load right for me.
(12:41:14 AM) cmdrwilkens: Its a good reference and it has a lot of information that is hard to otherwise convey (like when you go to terrain mode)
(12:41:42 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes, and XII Coprs is really just 1 Div landing to provide support for the Ranger Brigades moving down the river
(12:41:42 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm not saying it's not. I'm saying the site won't damned work on my connection for some reason. :-p
(12:41:49 AM) RogueIce: XII Corps Landing, D+9
Includes:
Primera Brigada de la violación pesados
Segunda Brigada de la violación pesados
(12:41:55 AM) cmdrwilkens: Oh I was bitching at Rogue not you
(12:42:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yup, that's the one
(12:42:07 AM) RogueIce: That's why I'm trying to c&p the stuff.
(12:42:33 AM) cmdrwilkens: Note Ryan has never indicated having any troops here so I honestly don't know if we need a roll or not
(12:42:57 AM) RogueIce: I have no idea what those Brigades are, not reading Spanish and all.
(12:43:03 AM) cmdrwilkens: Near as I can tell 8 days of steamrolling his lines have him sending everything to Cuidad
(12:43:07 AM) cmdrwilkens: 1st and 2nd Rangers
(12:45:21 AM) cmdrwilkens: They stay on their ships and head up river, see the separate "shallow draft attack" line
(12:48:20 AM) cmdrwilkens: So anyway at least 2 maybe 3 rolls needed, if he has no ships at sea I probably wouldn't be caught in the open
(12:48:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: But the landing at La Palma and the action upriver definitely need rolls
(12:50:08 AM) sbbigsteve: Yeah
(12:54:42 AM) cmdrwilkens: So rolls?
(12:55:00 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm determining what forces RYan would oppose you with.
(12:55:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: Ahhh
(1:04:01 AM) RogueIce: Ok, so we'll roll on the chances of getting spotted, since that's quite a bit of river to cross. And then depending on how that goes, you can decide whether they'd press on or think up something else.
(1:04:39 AM) sbbigsteve: sbbigsteve rolled 3 6-sided dice: 4 2 6
(1:04:57 AM) sbbigsteve: 12. They get spotted about two-thirds of the way to the objectiive.
(1:05:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: Is this the fleet at sea or the river boats?
(1:06:27 AM) cmdrwilkens: Also 2/3rds time or 2/3rds distance
(1:06:38 AM) sbbigsteve: River boats.
(1:06:54 AM) sbbigsteve: That'd be about the same, wouldn't it?
(1:07:02 AM) sbbigsteve: Or are you using straight-line distance for the latter?
(1:07:37 AM) cmdrwilkens: The river gets narrower so the speed slows, 2/3rds of the time would be about 3/4 of the distance
(1:09:22 AM) RogueIce: Ok, 2d6. 2-6 is 2/3 time; 7-11 is 2/3 distance; 12 is reroll.
(1:09:34 AM) cmdrwilkens: cool, go for it
(1:09:43 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 2 6-sided dice: 6 5
(1:09:55 AM) RogueIce: 11 Spotted at 2/3 distance to objective
(1:10:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: 2.5 hours to nightfall then (instead of 1.5), press onwards
(1:14:44 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay. We're presuming they're spotted by a patrol or by locals?
(1:14:50 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say roll for that.
(1:15:14 AM) RogueIce: Same numbers as before. 2-6 locals; 7-11 patrol; 12 reroll
(1:15:14 AM) sbbigsteve: Low roll is locals, meaning the Colombians will not be informed in time.
(1:15:19 AM) sbbigsteve: Ok.
(1:15:24 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 2 6-sided dice: 5 3
(1:15:28 AM) cmdrwilkens: I would say locals because honestly he shouldn't have anything there (unless he is shotchaning his transport in to cuidad)
(1:15:29 AM) sbbigsteve: Patrol.
(1:15:47 AM) RogueIce: Local garrison forces.
(1:15:49 AM) sbbigsteve: He'd probably have reserves at the very least. Rangers, maybe paramilitary.
(1:15:59 AM) RogueIce: They would expect a landing since you did it before.
(1:16:03 AM) sbbigsteve: Shotchaning?
(1:16:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: shortchanging
(1:16:19 AM) RogueIce: And should reasonably leave some forces in the rear, just in case.
(1:16:25 AM) sbbigsteve: He's not.
(1:16:39 AM) sbbigsteve: And it wouldn't necessarily be Army forces, it could be the equivalent of a forest ranger.
(1:16:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: Sure, if you aren't rushing everything to the front where he only just acheived numeric parity if he rushed everything to cuidad
(1:16:51 AM) sbbigsteve: Someone patrolling the rivers to help natives out.
(1:17:08 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue, he is rushing everything to Ciudad.
(1:17:09 AM) cmdrwilkens: Fair enough, can I shoot back at the patrol?
(1:17:19 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say you roll for success.
(1:17:28 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue?
(1:17:39 AM) RogueIce: Yeah, roll for success.
(1:18:41 AM) RogueIce: I use the word "forces" charitably.
(1:19:19 AM) cmdrwilkens: So who rolls?
(1:19:26 AM) RogueIce: I'll toss the dice.
(1:19:34 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 3 1
(1:19:39 AM) RogueIce: A 5
(1:19:59 AM) cmdrwilkens: Damn, can't catch a break, the patrol gets away
(1:21:16 AM) sbbigsteve: Do you press on?
(1:21:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes, need to get to those bridges, luck has to change sooner or later (or my brigades get wiped out )
(1:22:27 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay.
(1:22:39 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue and I are debating whether the garrisons are alerted in time.
(1:24:45 AM) RogueIce: Ok, sent Wilkens about where I figure his Rangers were spotted.
(1:24:48 AM) sbbigsteve: How long would that attack take from spotting to get to the target?
(1:24:56 AM) RogueIce: So the garrison forces are likely alerted.
(1:25:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: About 2.5 hours to nightfall but note there are virtually no roads here. The only reason I can move at all is that the river is navigable
(1:25:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: I am literally steaming upriver through the middle of the Darien Gap
(1:26:54 AM) sbbigsteve: *nod*
(1:27:19 AM) sbbigsteve: Attacking with 2 brigades, right?
(1:27:33 AM) sbbigsteve: Full strength brigades? Or smaller specialist ones?
(1:28:17 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes 2 Ranger Brigades, if they are successful then the river boats would move upstream with XII Corps but if and only if
(1:28:42 AM) sbbigsteve: ....to move 45,000 or so troops that's an awful freaking lot of river boats. :-\
(1:29:04 AM) RogueIce: I'm assuming XII Corps is still around La Palma.
(1:29:41 AM) RogueIce: If they
(1:29:53 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm.
(1:29:54 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes, like I said the momvement would start on or about D+11 and run continuously thereafter but since most of these operations are over by D+11 I didn't include it
(1:29:54 AM) RogueIce: If they're all heading down the river, that's a CF waiting to happen.
(1:30:23 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd understand the brigades for the raid but an entire Corps?
(1:30:28 AM) cmdrwilkens: No on D+9(night)/D+10(morning) when this is happening they are still in La Palma
(1:30:34 AM) RogueIce: Well, if XII Corps isn't anywhere near this, they don't need to be worried about.
(1:30:40 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes
(1:30:52 AM) cmdrwilkens: for this matter its a raid only right now
(1:30:55 AM) sbbigsteve: Could one even move their heavy equipment by river boat? And okay.
(1:30:58 AM) RogueIce: I assume he means that, if the Rangers are successful, they'll basically backtrack to the XII Corps beachhead and link uo there.
(1:31:15 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes, that would eb about it
(1:31:28 AM) sbbigsteve: Well, the timing means the garrison will be alerted, but is unlikely to be more than a reservist battalion or so given everything's being thrown into the Panama Line or as reserves for it.
(1:32:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: Which is about what I figured
(1:32:10 AM) RogueIce: Up against Ranger brigades, that's probably not a lot. But they are alerted and are the defenders.
(1:32:34 AM) sbbigsteve: So they'll inflict losses, but the Rangers have the numbers to outflank and overwhelm.
(1:32:44 AM) sbbigsteve: So shall that be our next roll?
(1:33:03 AM) sbbigsteve: Honestly given the logical numerical disparity I'd say only really low rolls indicate a complete Mexican defeat.
(1:33:06 AM) RogueIce: And are likely better trained in jungle fighting to boot. Since these aren't Colombian Regulars (who are also trained in jungle fighting)
(1:33:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yub yub
(1:33:30 AM) RogueIce: Yeah. 3 or 4 is a real clusterfuck.
(1:33:38 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay, you automatically lose, you freaking SW-breaking teddy bear! :-p
(1:33:40 AM) sbbigsteve:
(1:33:44 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay, roll?
(1:33:53 AM) RogueIce: I got this, yo.
(1:33:59 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 2 5 5
(1:34:03 AM) sbbigsteve: 12
(1:34:24 AM) sbbigsteve: But because of the Ewok impersonation, an automatic -10 modifier is applied, so Wilkens LOSES. :-p
(1:34:25 AM) sbbigsteve:
(1:34:30 AM) cmdrwilkens: (Just watched Robot Chicken SW 2 so yub yub indeed
(1:34:34 AM) RogueIce: I would say it's a better than average success.
(1:34:38 AM) sbbigsteve: Oh shit, forgot about that.
(1:34:59 AM) sbbigsteve: Reservist force overwhelmed and force to retreat.
(1:35:04 AM) cmdrwilkens: Flaming pieces of DSII for a +15 attack damage bonus
(1:35:10 AM) sbbigsteve: Rail lines through Yaviza heavily damaged.
(1:35:31 AM) sbbigsteve: ...let me guess, Robot Chicken also touched on the "Endor Holocaust" theory? :-p
(1:35:36 AM) cmdrwilkens: This would be on D+10 BTW
(1:35:46 AM) RogueIce: Focus people focus! Less extra crap for the log.
(1:36:03 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah the whole final 3 min of RC SW2 was flmaing pieces of DSII debris raining down on the eqoks killing them all
(1:36:05 AM) RogueIce: Night of D+10, right?
(1:36:22 AM) RogueIce: That would mean the D+9 and D=10 (day) airstrikes would have been conducted.
(1:36:22 AM) cmdrwilkens: no they moved upriver night of D+9, attack was morning of D+10
(1:36:26 AM) sbbigsteve: Yeah. So, 12, I imagine fair damage to one of the Darien lines.
(1:36:29 AM) RogueIce: Ok, so just one air attack.
(1:36:45 AM) RogueIce: We probably should have rolled on that one.
(1:37:05 AM) sbbigsteve: Ya think?
(1:37:19 AM) RogueIce: Well let's say they were being optimistic and went for the second line, expecting the Rangers to attack the other one.
(1:37:20 AM) sbbigsteve: So roll on it.
(1:37:30 AM) RogueIce: Then they would've re-evaluated on D+10
(1:37:37 AM) cmdrwilkens: The D+10 would probably proceed since it would be launched before the rangers left, they would then only attack where the bridges are still intact
(1:37:37 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 2 3
(1:37:38 AM) sbbigsteve: Wilkens?
(1:37:49 AM) sbbigsteve: 6. ow.
(1:37:54 AM) sbbigsteve: YOU FAIL
(1:37:54 AM) cmdrwilkens: The D+9 woudl definitely have gone forward
(1:37:55 AM) RogueIce: That's numerically ordered.
(1:37:56 AM) sbbigsteve: ....mostly.
(1:37:58 AM) sbbigsteve: Yes.
(1:38:12 AM) sbbigsteve: Too bad we didn't roll 3 dice. Then we could have 1 2 3 4 5
(1:38:23 AM) sbbigsteve: You mean commence your own Spaceballs jokes now.
(1:38:32 AM) RogueIce: Anyway, a 6. Your air attack blows.
(1:38:43 AM) sbbigsteve: But does it suck?
(1:38:59 AM) cmdrwilkens: Righteo then, D+9 inflicts almost no damage and loses a half dozen planes?
(1:39:09 AM) RogueIce: No. Rolled just high enough to avoid that. And yes, I got the joke. I'm just ignoring it.
(1:39:20 AM) cmdrwilkens: Roll for D+10 supporting the Rangers?
(1:39:30 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 2 1 1
(1:39:33 AM) cmdrwilkens: So minimal damage and 1 or 2 planes damaged but repairable
(1:39:43 AM) RogueIce: A 4
(1:39:53 AM) RogueIce: Now your air attack sucks and blows on D+10
(1:40:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: Jebus man, what did you do to upset the system...fuck me
(1:40:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: At least my pilots are probably safe with my rangers
(1:40:19 AM) RogueIce: Maybe Steve should roll for you.
(1:40:47 AM) RogueIce: Ryan should like me, though. Muy dice have been screwing you all night.
(1:40:56 AM) cmdrwilkens: So air attacks are useless (essentially) but the Rangers fuck the shit out of his rail lines in Yaviza
(1:41:04 AM) sbbigsteve: Generally.
(1:41:25 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm assuming they dynamite the rails and the concrete barges that hold them up in the swampy terrain?
(1:41:47 AM) RogueIce: Moderate losses D+9; should be heavy losses D+10 but your Rangers are in the area, so that probably fucks with his AA
(1:42:29 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah, sapper charges all around
(1:42:38 AM) RogueIce: And any pilots who make it safely to the ground should be able to get evacced by the Rangers to boot.
(1:42:54 AM) sbbigsteve: So D11 attack on the second set of rails.
(1:42:55 AM) cmdrwilkens: So figure a half dozen (maybe 10 planes) on D+10 but most pilots still alive if somewhat injured?
(1:43:00 AM) sbbigsteve: Probably ran northeast of Yaviza.
(1:43:06 AM) sbbigsteve: *nod*
(1:43:26 AM) RogueIce: And the Rangers are heading back upstream, so no help from them if anyone goes down, correct?
(1:44:03 AM) RogueIce: Steve, for Greg's sake I'll let you roll this one.
(1:44:16 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay.
(1:44:18 AM) cmdrwilkens: Sounds good, rangers stay put in Yaviza, Air attack switches to 2nd set of rails and negative
(1:44:32 AM) sbbigsteve: sbbigsteve rolled 3 6-sided dice: 5 5 1
(1:44:32 AM) RogueIce: Ok, so the Rangers are still there.
(1:44:39 AM) RogueIce: 11
(1:44:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: you've been rolling all night, joking aside if I had the hot dice for 1,2 and 3, averages mean sooner or later I had to go cold
(1:45:12 AM) sbbigsteve: Anyway....
(1:45:14 AM) RogueIce: That's an average-ish result.
(1:45:18 AM) cmdrwilkens: Steve I think Rogue needs to keep rolling, I really hate switching the roller even if it does look like its killing me
(1:45:23 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm.
(1:45:25 AM) sbbigsteve: Very well.
(1:45:27 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue, you roll.
(1:45:42 AM) RogueIce: Ok.
(1:45:48 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 3 3 2
(1:45:51 AM) RogueIce: 8
(1:46:00 AM) sbbigsteve: Well... at least it's not a 5?
(1:46:12 AM) sbbigsteve: Such a notable sacrifice, Greg.
(1:46:19 AM) cmdrwilkens: An 8 (if I remember from before) is a couple hours shutdown
(1:46:39 AM) cmdrwilkens: Anyway I beleive in fair play, if I'm having crappy rolls then I'm having crappy rolls
(1:47:01 AM) RogueIce: Indeed. So one line is basically out. The other only minorly inconvienenced (and I bet I totally mangled that word).
(1:47:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: I think I should end up winning overall because I brought a superior strategy to this fight BUT tactical setback should happen regardless
(1:48:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Right then, XII Corps will begin moving downstream starting the morning of D+11 (figure the ranger boats came back the evening of D+10) so 2 more brigades should be in Yaviza by the end of D+11
(1:48:22 AM) RogueIce: That'll definately affect his ability to reinforce and supply. Sure he has one line open, but he's got to send the cars back and the other one is basically out of service.
(1:48:59 AM) cmdrwilkens: I'm gonna figure 3 bde/day afterwards (its about 8hrs each way)
(1:49:37 AM) RogueIce: So what's XII Corps going to be doing, since you didn't specify?
(1:50:39 AM) RogueIce: Just plunk themselves along the destroyed line and make it a bitch to try and rebuild? Moreso than it would be already because of the remoteness and terrain?
(1:51:02 AM) cmdrwilkens: Blocking the supply line, sure he bridged the Darien Gap but If I place 1 (or 2) Corps across it then I can starve his troops out of Cuidad (or threaten to do so)
(1:51:33 AM) cmdrwilkens: Actually I take things back, stick with 2 bde/day plus 1 trip for supplies
(1:51:36 AM) RogueIce: Of course, keep in mind, they're pretty much dependent on supply from sea and traveling down the river. Your guys can easily be cut off.
(1:52:32 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah but a) He can't cut that route with surface ships b) Its tough to do with sub and c) there is physically no way to do it overland unless he marches south from Cuidad (which achieves my objective just the same)
(1:52:33 AM) RogueIce: You have all of 17 destroyers in the Pacific.
(1:53:06 AM) RogueIce: True. Any paramilitary forces he can move down there can try and disrupt your riverboats though.
(1:53:14 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes and a bunch of air assets that are still flying uncontested patrols while my own subs are waiting on his to come out.
(1:53:22 AM) RogueIce: It's a bitch though.
(1:53:26 AM) RogueIce: To get them there.
(1:53:28 AM) sbbigsteve: Won't be uncontested for long.
(1:53:36 AM) cmdrwilkens: I may lose some of my shipping in to La Palma but he isn't going to disrupt the upriver route
(1:53:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah the freakin Brazilians
(1:53:48 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm not sure you can successfully advance over the Gap to cut the other line.
(1:54:18 AM) RogueIce: It'd be an even bigger strain on logistics than you already face.
(1:54:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: The gap is a block ~50mi east to west that runs north to south, there is no where else the line could physically run save in to the environs of Yaviza
(1:54:44 AM) sbbigsteve: But cutting even one line will put him in a logistical tight spot.
(1:55:06 AM) sbbigsteve: What do you mean?
(1:55:17 AM) sbbigsteve: He has two two-track lines. Why would both have to go through Yaviza?
(1:55:21 AM) RogueIce: Of course he's got (in theory) another day to send air attacks. Maybe two, but that's D+14 and the US will be calling for a ceasefire/negotiations by then anyway.
(1:56:34 AM) cmdrwilkens: To the north is either mountains or raw swampland with drainage issue everywhere, even 21st century techniques aren't going to be able to build through that region no matter the cost. It would be liek the Kwai River issue (the real one not the movie version) with horrific personnel losses, rainfall that swallows temporary supports whole, the inability to pour concrete, lack of footing etc
(1:56:44 AM) RogueIce: Wait, my bad. He has D+12 and D+13 air attacks, if he wants. D+14 might happen before a ceasefire when the US calls for talks, but it wouldn't serve a lot of purpose if such happens.
(1:58:02 AM) cmdrwilkens: To the SW of Yaviza you run smack dab in to the river basin I am now operating on with the only viable line of advance straight north towards Metei running East of the coastal mountains...but taht area is already under my control
(1:58:53 AM) sbbigsteve: So it'd have to be close enough to Yaviza you threaten the other one?
(2:00:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: If you look at the terrain map there is a ridgeline just west of Yaviza. What might be the case is he has one line runnign east of that ridge (through Yaviza) and one west
(2:01:11 AM) cmdrwilkens: We could say I took out the Western One but would have to cross the ridgeline to attack Yaviza proper (and the seocnd line)
(2:01:30 AM) sbbigsteve: Couldn't he have one east of Yaviza?
(2:01:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: He would have probably from the evening of D+10 to the afternoon of D+11 to get troops in place
(2:02:29 AM) sbbigsteve: Why not have a line east of Yaviza?
(2:02:40 AM) cmdrwilkens: Not really, east of Yaviza is the drainage basin for the N and NE mountains, its swamp/jungle that has 300+days of rain per year and not the slightest hint of supporting road infrastructure
(2:03:16 AM) sbbigsteve: How far east before you hit the basin?
(2:04:16 AM) sbbigsteve: You understand, Wilkens, if I'd like to confirm this from a source with less, *cough*, interest in the outcome?
(2:05:07 AM) sbbigsteve: Ryan says he has them lined out, I'm going to ask.
(2:05:49 AM) cmdrwilkens: Go for it but ask Beo because he was, IIRC, the first to point out the huge issues with running a line through the Gap
(2:05:57 AM) cmdrwilkens: Ryan is about as disinterested as I am
(2:06:42 AM) sbbigsteve: http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/panama_veg_1981.jpg
(2:06:46 AM) sbbigsteve: Ryan used this map.
(2:06:56 AM) RogueIce: Well either way, by D+11 he has one track basically out. I don't think you'd have advanced to the other by then. Since your Atlantic Landings would happen by D+11 anyway, I don't think it's a major issue to those.
(2:07:54 AM) RogueIce: Although if you did manage to cut both it might make a difference at the negotiating table. But I think we can do the rolls for the Atlantic landings in the meantime?
(2:08:39 AM) sbbigsteve: We can start.
(2:08:46 AM) sbbigsteve: I think Ryan means to run his rails east of Yaviza.
(2:11:42 AM) RogueIce: So, his forces at Ciudad. Basically normal until the morning of D+10 when he loses a line.
(2:11:50 AM) RogueIce: Normal reinforcements.
(2:12:02 AM) RogueIce: When does the actual landing commence?
(2:12:45 AM) RogueIce: Looks like D+12?
(2:13:04 AM) sbbigsteve: Where?
(2:13:11 AM) cmdrwilkens: It is "deciduous or evergreen" vegetation but that (in this case) is code word for tropical rainforest
(2:13:18 AM) sbbigsteve: Remember, Google Map hates me now.
(2:14:24 AM) cmdrwilkens: Anyway the attack commences when the observers/intel agents/resistance groups I have in Colon hijack the lighthouse and send me a morse code signal that the subs are all in harbor (a coded morse code signal)
(2:15:18 AM) cmdrwilkens: The reason I wanted ro roll for the success of this is to see how accurate they are at checking the status of Ryan's subs. If they are very accurate then I woudl be guaranteed to attack only with his subs in port (and at least 4 hours sailing from a viable engagement range)
(2:15:45 AM) RogueIce: Atlantic:
Fleet actions
Agents sending signals via lighthouse
Submarines on surface/submarine contacts
Fleet bombardment on Fuerte Sherman
(2:15:51 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay.
(2:15:54 AM) cmdrwilkens: One of the bits of research I did was to get the effective range on the Mk15 Torpedo and the sucker is only good fro ~5k yards
(2:16:09 AM) sbbigsteve: So you want to roll on success of accuracy in status of Ryan's subs.
(2:16:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: Which means his subs (after I appear) woudl have to wake up, cast off, either run surfaced or submerged to about 20k+ yards offshore (or about 3-4 hours of sailing)
(2:16:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes that is step 1
(2:16:51 AM) RogueIce: Ok then.
(2:17:01 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 4 3
(2:17:08 AM) RogueIce: Another 8
(2:18:14 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say not very accurate.
(2:19:32 AM) cmdrwilkens: So his subs may or may not be in port but I attack anyway though certainly at least a few definitely are
(2:19:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: fuair to say?
(2:19:49 AM) cmdrwilkens: *fair
(2:22:05 AM) sbbigsteve: Yes.
(2:22:47 AM) cmdrwilkens: Okay, not sure which day that would be (you would have to ask Ryan what his Atlantic Sub Patrols look like) but we can move forward regrdless of that
(2:23:32 AM) sbbigsteve: I know.
(2:25:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: Okay, so my subs are sitting waiting to hit anybody that comes out of the harbor mouth (the exit through the breakwater is only about 2,000' wide)
(2:26:38 AM) sbbigsteve: *nod*
(2:27:00 AM) RogueIce: Not very pretty landing sites.
(2:27:27 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm, well, his subs are loitering in your sub's area.
(2:27:35 AM) sbbigsteve: So roll to avoid detection by his subs.
(2:27:46 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah that's why I'm beaching most of the ships
(2:27:47 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 6 5 2
(2:27:56 AM) RogueIce: 13
(2:28:03 AM) sbbigsteve: You avoid detection.
(2:28:07 AM) sbbigsteve: For now.
(2:28:17 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yay, do I detect him?
(2:28:24 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm.
(2:28:27 AM) RogueIce: Let's roll on that.
(2:28:34 AM) sbbigsteve: His subs are off Point Sherman and Colon.
(2:28:35 AM) RogueIce: If he does, he has the element of surprise.
(2:28:51 AM) RogueIce: If not, they just pass each other.
(2:28:53 AM) sbbigsteve: So while not in port, they're still out of position to interfere.
(2:28:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: inside or outside the breakwater?
(2:29:19 AM) sbbigsteve: Where's the Breakwater?
(2:29:22 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd presume outside it.
(2:29:31 AM) cmdrwilkens: inside then they would pass the subs on the way out...and fuck I forgot Google is screwing you over
(2:29:55 AM) sbbigsteve: It's completely failed on me.
(2:30:06 AM) sbbigsteve: I can't even view the Spacebattles forums because the top google banner won't load.
(2:30:19 AM) RogueIce: Shit, the big picture map I sent you has the caption over his little swimming dude.
(2:30:42 AM) cmdrwilkens: It exteneds from Pt Sherman NE at ~45deg then meets the other breakwater from the northermost tip of the colon which works its way due west before turning NW
(2:31:46 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say mostly out then.
(2:32:22 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm, maybe not.
(2:32:25 AM) RogueIce: I sent him a screenshot. The little swimming dude is where the subs are lying in wait, right?
(2:32:41 AM) sbbigsteve: if that icon is the extent of the breakwater....
(2:32:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: ROUGHLY, emphasis on the word
(2:33:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Rogue did you send the satellite image version? It shows the breaker pretty clearly
(2:33:50 AM) sbbigsteve: Ryan figures his Darien rails, at Yaviza, start following the area around the current road.
(2:34:00 AM) RogueIce: No, terrain.
(2:34:05 AM) sbbigsteve: So I'd say you cut the west line.
(2:34:05 AM) RogueIce: I'll send the sat.
(2:34:15 AM) sbbigsteve: And the east line is in direct danger.
(2:34:23 AM) cmdrwilkens: Okay then controlling Yaviz (which is where I landed) would give me the chance to cut both line
(2:35:00 AM) cmdrwilkens: (the road map is slightly out of phase with the Sat map where you can see Yaviza pretty clearly SW of where the road map says it is)
(2:35:26 AM) sbbigsteve: That's what I just ruled; you cut the west line and the east is in danger.
(2:35:48 AM) cmdrwilkens: Cool, righteo then, back to my audacious roll of the dice
(2:36:15 AM) RogueIce: Ok, so knowing where the breakwater is, that's where Wilken's subs are heading.
(2:36:30 AM) sbbigsteve: Anyway, we're rolling for landing, yes?
(2:37:07 AM) cmdrwilkens: Not yet, we need to figure out if Sherman fires on my BBs and BC when they move in range because that is Phase 1 of the landing
(2:37:12 AM) RogueIce: I think we had to determine if the subs enagaged each other.
(2:37:22 AM) RogueIce: Then we have to handle the fleet bombardments.
(2:38:01 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes, shit forgot that, my subs evade detection y his but we need to roll for me detecting him (and engaging in the world's first sub on sub duel
(2:38:21 AM) RogueIce: If his subs are loitering in the area.
(2:38:58 AM) RogueIce: Anyway, knowing the Mexican subs general path and general loiter area, and where the Colombian subs are (roughly), Steve what do you think?
(2:39:19 AM) sbbigsteve: Sub on sub duel would be enormously unlikely to do much.
(2:39:28 AM) sbbigsteve: You might kill one or two of his subs on a good roll.
(2:39:30 AM) sbbigsteve: Via ambush.
(2:39:40 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay Rogue, roll.
(2:40:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes but the objective is to disrupt his ability to range against my heavy units, get Ft Sherman firing on disparate targets and generally sowing confusion
(2:40:55 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 3 4
(2:40:55 AM) sbbigsteve: So you wouldn't ambush his subs?
(2:41:08 AM) cmdrwilkens: Looks like I won't
(2:41:14 AM) sbbigsteve: 1 kill.
(2:41:17 AM) RogueIce: I don't think he was terribly successful even if he wanted to.
(2:41:21 AM) sbbigsteve: I'll give you 1 kill for being so undetected.
(2:41:43 AM) sbbigsteve: Well, if he chose to hold his subs back until the BBs opened fire, well, that roll is nullified.
(2:41:52 AM) sbbigsteve: Because that changes the circumstances of the engagement.
(2:41:54 AM) RogueIce: That leaves, in total, 9 subs. Some of them still in harbor (I think Ryan only had 10 total at Colon).
(2:42:04 AM) cmdrwilkens: I don't want to be terribly successful, I just need his subs looking for mine and not the following:
(2:42:10 AM) sbbigsteve: Okay.
(2:42:18 AM) sbbigsteve: So the attack commenced, one Colombian sub goes down.
(2:42:28 AM) cmdrwilkens: My subs are in place before the BBs appear so if they ambush they would ambush patrolling subs BEFORE the BBs attack
(2:42:44 AM) sbbigsteve: The others look back, but as has been stated a sub on sub kill will be generally unlikely once everyone's maneuvering.
(2:42:54 AM) sbbigsteve: *nod*
(2:43:13 AM) cmdrwilkens: Critical things about the attack from my map:25,000 yard line
Last Updated by burnettr on Dec 19
BB and BC lines will engage Fuerte Sherman from 22,000 to 28,000 yards

Mexicana and Presteza class vessels will hold at 32,000 yards to engage any ships that sortie.

Light elements will hold at 34,000 yards to engage any submarines that come in range.


* Note, submarines would need to cruise to within ~5,000 yards for effective range on torpedoes, this means covering just over 30,000 yards from time of deployment or roughly 3 hours submerged sailing from the time they leave dock
(2:43:17 AM) sbbigsteve: Confused sub melee, but it keeps the subs from engaging.
(2:43:42 AM) sbbigsteve: Now, fort attack.
(2:44:04 AM) sbbigsteve: If you roll real high (fat chance with Rogue here) I may even give you a direct hit on one of the fort's guns.
(2:44:22 AM) sbbigsteve: But generally you're just distracting them and unlikely to get a single hit, or just hit the wlal.
(2:44:24 AM) sbbigsteve: *wall
(2:44:30 AM) ***RogueIce shakes extra good
(2:44:40 AM) cmdrwilkens: Other notes:
Aside from reduction in accuracy against MPI over barrel life the US 16"/50 had a barrel life of 290 rounds. Meanwhile the Japanese 18.1/45 had a life in the 150-200 range and both of the comparative guns were produced two decades after Ryan would have made these so lets go with 250 rounds as barrel life.

2x3 17.7" Guns at 250 rounds each = 1,500 rounds, at 6% hit rate, 90 hits

Now for the 350mm guns, based on the US 14"/50 Mk11 (200-250), the US 14"/45 Mk12 (250), the British 14"/50 Mk VI (150), the British 13.5"/45 (300), and onwards you can see that extending to the L50 barrel seems to indicate lower barrel life but lets go midpoint and stick with 250 round

2x2x2 13.7" Guns at 250 rounds each = 2,000 rounds, at a 6% hit rate 120 hits


(2:44:51 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 4 6 6
(2:45:00 AM) RogueIce: 16
(2:45:01 AM) cmdrwilkens: Fuck YEAH
(2:45:10 AM) sbbigsteve: Oh damn.
(2:45:21 AM) sbbigsteve: You manage hits on the fort.
(2:45:33 AM) sbbigsteve: No direct hits on gun turrets, but the walls take damage.
(2:45:51 AM) RogueIce: They're definately look north now.
(2:45:57 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say you get the fort's attention.
(2:46:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: So Steve this is my main point I made to Shep/Ryan: What this really means is that he should be able to reasonably land 180 total hits before suffering increasingly severe loss of range and accurracy. Since I can rotate my units in and out of the engagement I'd be in fine shape. 210 hits distributed amongst 14 front line battleships equates to about 15 hits each...or 210 hits amongst 18 Battleships (if I brought the Mexicana or Virtuoso class in to play) works out to 11 2/3 (call it 12) hits per ship
(2:46:37 AM) sbbigsteve: And unless one of those is a golden BB it won't kill those ships generally.
(2:47:08 AM) RogueIce: I'll roll to see if Ryan gets an 18 and does get a Golden BB (har har)
(2:47:10 AM) cmdrwilkens: I am engagining with the Santa Ana, Veracruz and Virtuoso class for 18 ships so 12 hits each
(2:47:12 AM) RogueIce: ?
(2:47:13 AM) sbbigsteve: I may have to invest IBPs in beefing up Oahu's forts after this... :-p
(2:47:22 AM) sbbigsteve: Yes.
(2:47:27 AM) sbbigsteve: Roll for hits on the Mexican fleet.
(2:47:32 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 5 4 2
(2:47:35 AM) RogueIce: 11
(2:47:36 AM) sbbigsteve: I have 16 16"/50 guns there.
(2:47:39 AM) sbbigsteve: He lands hits.
(2:47:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: Now those 12 hits (average) are still likely to mean turrets out of commission, reduced speed, conning towers damage, etc
(2:47:55 AM) sbbigsteve: So some of your ships take damage.
(2:48:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: 11/18 means he hit aminline accuracy at least a few of my ships should be limping home
(2:48:28 AM) sbbigsteve: Roll again, if a low roll is made Wilkens will lose ships to fire.
(2:48:41 AM) sbbigsteve: As in onboard fires breaking out from the damage.
(2:48:55 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 3 2 3
(2:49:01 AM) RogueIce: 8
(2:49:36 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm, at 8, no ships lost, but one ship further damaged by a fire that was barely controlled.
(2:49:52 AM) sbbigsteve: Someone's getting the Mexican equivalent of the MoH on that vessel.
(2:49:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: I would offer 2 BCs with turrets damaged and out of commission, 1 BB with steering damage, 1 BB with conning tower damage and 1 BB with fires in the engine room (loss of 2 shafts)
(2:50:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Should more be damaged?
(2:50:31 AM) sbbigsteve: Out of 18 ships?
(2:50:37 AM) cmdrwilkens: out of 18
(2:50:42 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm.
(2:50:46 AM) sbbigsteve: It's a roll of 11.
(2:50:56 AM) sbbigsteve: So... maybe one more.
(2:51:08 AM) sbbigsteve: But it can be a non-critical hit generally.
(2:51:21 AM) cmdrwilkens: So maybe 1 more BB with steering damage. I'll make it one of my Santa Ana's
(2:51:31 AM) sbbigsteve: Since for such damage a couple ships might've taken more than one hit.
(2:51:42 AM) RogueIce: 9 ships damaged total
(2:51:53 AM) cmdrwilkens: Should soften the blow somewhat and all of the ships with steering/enginge damage probably would be the target of Ryan's subs heading back to base
(2:51:58 AM) sbbigsteve: 6.
(2:52:02 AM) sbbigsteve: Six ships damaged.
(2:52:17 AM) RogueIce: Clearly I'm staring at my screen upside down.
(2:52:35 AM) RogueIce: But yeah, brainfart.
(2:52:41 AM) sbbigsteve: Anyway, now for the fun part.
(2:52:47 AM) sbbigsteve: Then I can get to writing Pacifica over on LibArc.
(2:52:50 AM) RogueIce: Landings!
(2:52:53 AM) cmdrwilkens: 2 BC with turrets out of commission, 2 BBs with steering damage, 1 with conning tower blown away, and 1 with fires in the engine room (loss of 2 shafts)
(2:52:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes...landings
(2:53:07 AM) sbbigsteve: Basically Cascadia, but with New Zealand and California and bits. And it's British and not Yet Another Steve Republic.
(2:53:11 AM) cmdrwilkens: Amphib Landing
Fleet ELEMENT (Mexicana class only) bombardment support of landing
Air Element supporting (arty spotting and strafing)
XXI Corps Landings (first wave)
XXI Corps movement to in shore objectives
XVII Corps Landing (follow on wave)
(2:53:22 AM) RogueIce: Amphib Landing
Fleet ELEMENT (Mexicana class only) bombardment support of landing
Air Element supporting (arty spotting and strafing)
XXI Corps Landings (first wave)
XXI Corps movement to in shore objectives
XVII Corps Landing (follow on wave)
Note that if at any point elements of the Amphib landing fail there may be an abort for which a success roll will be needed for the quality of the dis-engagement.
(2:53:40 AM) RogueIce: I'd say first roll is the effectiveness of your bombardment.
(2:53:45 AM) cmdrwilkens: The ships bombing the beaches are my old 12" 1909 BBs that were held out of the fight with Ft Sherman until we finished really blasting each other
(2:53:46 AM) sbbigsteve: Wait
(2:54:11 AM) RogueIce: Once we do landings, if one fails the proceeding ones are called off.
(2:54:15 AM) RogueIce: Right?
(2:54:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: The preceedings ones can't be called off The suceeding ones might be
(2:54:54 AM) cmdrwilkens: Total failure yes, poor showing its a maybe
(2:55:01 AM) sbbigsteve: This is D+12?
(2:55:09 AM) RogueIce: I said pro, as in following. But whatever. It's 3am and my mastery of the English language is not at its greatest.
(2:55:27 AM) cmdrwilkens: I don't know, it depends on when Ryan had roughly half his Colon ships at sea
(2:55:28 AM) RogueIce: Yeah, kinda need to know the day so we can guessitimate the forces Ryan has brought up.
(2:55:47 AM) cmdrwilkens: I stated operations for either D+10,11,12 depending on my agent in place
(2:56:24 AM) RogueIce: I'm betting Ryan's not on to ask, and I'd hate having to wait on a PM.
(2:56:47 AM) cmdrwilkens: Say they got jumpy and went on D+11 (eagerness got the better of them after a 24hr vigil)
(2:56:48 AM) sbbigsteve: I think he's been keeping them to sea.
(2:57:19 AM) cmdrwilkens: Go with D+11, just not worth it to dig deeper
(2:57:26 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm asking him now.
(2:57:29 AM) sbbigsteve: He's on MSN.
(2:58:37 AM) RogueIce: Man, the Halo theme is really rather appropriate to be playing right now, I must say.
(2:58:39 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm still not quite sure what you're getting at with when his fleet's active?
(2:58:53 AM) sbbigsteve: His subs have been out of port pretty much generally since the war began.
(2:58:54 AM) RogueIce: Essentially, he's moving in when he sees the subs leave.
(2:58:57 AM) sbbigsteve: Probably rotating back and forth.
(2:59:15 AM) RogueIce: Or rather, when he thinks they're all still in port.
(2:59:22 AM) cmdrwilkens: The plan was to launch with his subs in port to refuel.rearm/reviticule so I have fewer threats against me
(2:59:44 AM) RogueIce: Well if they've been rotating they're never all in port.
(2:59:54 AM) sbbigsteve: Well, your agents weren't accurate, perhaps they thought they saw all the subs coming back in but there were actually only 4 or so with 5-6 still out in the ocean?
(3:00:00 AM) cmdrwilkens: Figure my locals got jumpy when they saw a pair of 'em pull up to the pier to refuel and shot off the signal for D+11
(3:00:08 AM) RogueIce: D+11 works for me.
(3:00:35 AM) RogueIce: He's only been feeling the effects of the loss of the western line for a day.
(3:00:49 AM) sbbigsteve: So 28-30 divisions are in and around the Panama Line region.
(3:00:54 AM) sbbigsteve: But most would be to the South.
(3:00:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah but all of my troops are opposite Cuidad
(3:01:10 AM) cmdrwilkens: There really isn't much going N-S other than the canal itself
(3:01:31 AM) cmdrwilkens: there are, I think, 2 secondary or gravel roads that make it from Cuidad to Colon
(3:01:43 AM) sbbigsteve: Quit yer back-talkin' foo', or I'll go all Mr. T on your ass with the Mohawk Grenades!
(3:01:46 AM) RogueIce: Well the bulk of your forces are south.
(3:01:54 AM) cmdrwilkens: Even figuring Ryan is an INF 5 that would be 2 macadamized roads and a rail line
(3:02:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah, that is why we call it a flanking manuever
(3:02:15 AM) RogueIce: So that's probably where he's been sending a good chunk of them.
(3:02:24 AM) sbbigsteve: He was having troops gradually shifting north as they arrived to lay in the Panama Line.
(3:02:26 AM) RogueIce: But the Colon area won't be undefended, either.
(3:02:32 AM) sbbigsteve: http://meta.filesmelt.com/downloader.ph ... a_Line.jpg
(3:02:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: No, he's got the Fortress Division at a minimum
(3:03:12 AM) cmdrwilkens: I know, did you look at the terrain that line runs over? Its 1400m high mountains once you go 10mi north of Cuidad
(3:03:13 AM) RogueIce: That line is actually a bit to the SW of the landings. So Wilkens is landing behind where they're setting that line. I think.
(3:03:46 AM) cmdrwilkens: The tips of those yellow lines are about as far north as you can run before the terrain goes impassable
(3:04:31 AM) sbbigsteve: Why only one N-S Rail-line linking Colon and Panama?
(3:04:34 AM) RogueIce: You're advancing through some elevated terrain yourself.
(3:05:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah, that's why I'm betting on no more than 6mi/day after stripping my arty out of my loads
(3:05:47 AM) sbbigsteve: Still, if your landing succeeds I'd say you'll pretty much force a major shift in his defense line.
(3:06:01 AM) RogueIce: My read of that is, the northernmost parts of the line are there in case you try a landing and attempt to proceed along the coast.
(3:06:21 AM) cmdrwilkens: Absolutely, the thing is if I DO succeed then I surround his fort, starve them out and control the Gatun locks
(3:06:30 AM) RogueIce: The problem is, I can't quite tell if your landing locations are in front of or behind that line.
(3:07:18 AM) sbbigsteve: Mostly behind.
(3:07:19 AM) cmdrwilkens: behind, you cn tell by the color of the satellite photos
(3:07:33 AM) cmdrwilkens: I am landing in the segment that is brownish instead of green
(3:07:39 AM) sbbigsteve: Use the waterway as a reference.
(3:08:01 AM) sbbigsteve: His western-most landing might be just behind the line, and will likely meet the most resistance.
(3:08:09 AM) RogueIce: Well, there's only a pretty narrow gap between the shore and the ridges. So I imagine he's moving forces and supplies along that. Which kinda sucks because that's where Wilkens is landing.
(3:08:10 AM) cmdrwilkens: Using the color of the sat photos is better, there is a large block of brownish photos surrounded by green photos
(3:08:30 AM) RogueIce: Sucks for Ryan, anyway.
(3:09:04 AM) cmdrwilkens: Well either way, we need bombardment roll, flying arty spotter rolls and then the landing rolls
(3:09:38 AM) RogueIce: Are the Brazilian "volunteers" in the area? That'd make things interesting for your aircraft.
(3:10:39 AM) cmdrwilkens: I can't imagine that they'd be anywhere other than Cuidad or maybe near Yaviza (given where I previously attacked by air)
(3:11:07 AM) sbbigsteve: On D11 you'd have 28 divisions of Colombia having reinforced the line.
(3:11:56 AM) sbbigsteve: Not counting the D+11 units that have probably been thrown into an effort to protect the remaining rail line near Yaviza and which may counterattack your brigade.
(3:11:59 AM) sbbigsteve: *Brigades
(3:12:02 AM) cmdrwilkens: I have 36 opposite Cuidad on that date
(3:12:22 AM) sbbigsteve: But not all full strength?
(3:12:57 AM) RogueIce: "Well, you know what you signed up for, head north until you reach the Caroni River, then follow it to the midway point, and from there towards Ciudad Bolivar."
That was them leaving on D+8
(3:12:58 AM) cmdrwilkens: Only a few have seen combat (mostly those in the 21st and 9th) so I've probably lost 1 Div worth of strength total at most
(3:13:56 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah Ciudad Bolivar is still in Venezuela so D+9 to there, D+10 or D+11 in theater
(3:14:11 AM) sbbigsteve: Anyway....
(3:14:15 AM) sbbigsteve: Roll for bombardment.
(3:14:25 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 2 4 5
(3:14:32 AM) RogueIce: 11
(3:14:41 AM) sbbigsteve: I'm presuming he has at least four divisions in the northern area.
(3:14:50 AM) sbbigsteve: By D+11.
(3:14:59 AM) sbbigsteve: Including forces at Colon.
(3:15:06 AM) sbbigsteve: Since he has to guard against Mexico landing east of Colon.
(3:15:31 AM) RogueIce: Plus his fortress division.
(3:15:43 AM) sbbigsteve: ....which would be manning his fortress?
(3:15:52 AM) RogueIce: Yeah.
(3:15:59 AM) RogueIce: I'm just being a completist.
(3:16:16 AM) cmdrwilkens: Allright, guys can we accelerate wife woke up and told me its sleepy time (0315)
(3:16:18 AM) ***sbbigsteve Gibbs-smacks Rogue on principle
(3:16:29 AM) sbbigsteve: 11 on bombardment. Generally successful..
(3:16:33 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue, next two rolls.
(3:16:38 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 6 1 4
(3:16:42 AM) RogueIce: 11 again
(3:16:44 AM) sbbigsteve: 11 on arty spotting.
(3:16:59 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 3 2
(3:17:01 AM) sbbigsteve: Which.... I suppose means they don't get shot down and provide decent, but not decisive, gun-spotting.
(3:17:11 AM) sbbigsteve: But the landing fails anyway!
(3:17:12 AM) RogueIce: Your landing just kinda sucked.
(3:17:13 AM) cmdrwilkens: So my gunnery is above average, should help
(3:17:24 AM) sbbigsteve: Well, I'll give you a +2 for the two prior rolls.
(3:17:27 AM) sbbigsteve: So an 8.
(3:17:28 AM) RogueIce: 8
(3:17:38 AM) sbbigsteve: Your troops get ashore but aren't going much further.
(3:17:55 AM) RogueIce: Is XVII Corps moving in?
(3:17:56 AM) cmdrwilkens: I actually asked for a separate roll on the inland advance
(3:18:06 AM) RogueIce: Ok, so they're ashore.
(3:18:08 AM) sbbigsteve: Inland advance?
(3:18:12 AM) cmdrwilkens: My thought was that the landing roll would determine casualties casued by the landing
(3:18:23 AM) sbbigsteve: Well, your casualties were pretty sizable.
(3:18:26 AM) RogueIce: Another roll to see if they can get past the beachead? Modified by the losses on landing.
(3:18:34 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yeah basically
(3:18:35 AM) sbbigsteve: Shoot.
(3:18:41 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 3 4 2
(3:18:44 AM) RogueIce: 9
(3:18:48 AM) sbbigsteve: But also modified by successful.... yeah.
(3:18:53 AM) cmdrwilkens: modified by losses but also modified by my spotting/arty support
(3:19:08 AM) sbbigsteve: So an effective 10.
(3:19:30 AM) RogueIce: A moderate advance.
(3:19:34 AM) sbbigsteve: 9-10, either way you get ashore and advance a bit.
(3:19:42 AM) RogueIce: Is XVII going to land?
(3:19:43 AM) cmdrwilkens: Righteo, the question is does my northernmost unit make its 6miles on day 1?
(3:19:56 AM) RogueIce: Well, they're behind the lines.
(3:20:02 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm...
(3:20:07 AM) sbbigsteve: On a 9-10 roll?
(3:20:10 AM) RogueIce: But then if Fort Sherman's gonna notice anybody, it's them.
(3:20:19 AM) sbbigsteve: 4-6 miles generally.
(3:20:23 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes but they also shot most of their heavy shells at my BB
(3:20:35 AM) sbbigsteve: Some units made it, some might be lagging behind due to the chaos of the landing.
(3:20:38 AM) cmdrwilkens: if not all of their heavy shells
(3:20:43 AM) RogueIce: Well we'll go with 4-6 miles as Steve said.
(3:20:57 AM) RogueIce: You did get their attention rather well, after all.
(3:20:57 AM) sbbigsteve: So, is XVII landing?
(3:20:59 AM) cmdrwilkens: Okay call is 2 bde at the locks with 2 bde still 1-2 miles away?
(3:21:15 AM) cmdrwilkens: Yes XVII is landing
(3:21:22 AM) RogueIce: And here comes that roll.
(3:21:31 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 1 5 4
(3:21:32 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm, maybe more like 1 bde at the lock and the other 3 are 1-2 miles.
(3:21:37 AM) RogueIce: 9
(3:21:39 AM) RogueIce: Er, 10
(3:21:39 AM) sbbigsteve: 10.
(3:21:51 AM) cmdrwilkens: Modded to 11/12?
(3:21:53 AM) sbbigsteve: 10-12 given the other rolls.
(3:22:02 AM) sbbigsteve: We're hurrying this for you, not going to quibble.
(3:22:02 AM) RogueIce: So pretty good landing there.
(3:22:13 AM) RogueIce: RogueIce rolled 3 6-sided dice: 3 2 2
(3:22:15 AM) sbbigsteve: So your forces are firmly ashore, but it remains to be seen if you can easily support them.
(3:22:18 AM) RogueIce: Advance of 7
(3:22:31 AM) sbbigsteve: A bit short of a full advance though.
(3:22:36 AM) RogueIce: Modified by whatever.
(3:22:42 AM) sbbigsteve: Not to be surprised, you're pushing a lot of units ashore.
(3:22:55 AM) cmdrwilkens: So roughly 15-20% casualties on the landing but they push in shore most of the way to their objectives. XVII lands and gets ready to support the advance
(3:23:09 AM) sbbigsteve: Works.
(3:23:36 AM) sbbigsteve: Though your battalion at the locks may face overpowering resistance, the Colombians should be able to shift troops to face them.
(3:23:41 AM) sbbigsteve: Rogue, you post the log.
(3:23:42 AM) cmdrwilkens: Figure I lost the equivalent of 2 bdes in XXI Corps with the nothernmost ones most heavily hit
(3:23:49 AM) sbbigsteve: I posted last time.
(3:24:06 AM) cmdrwilkens: I will post an actual narrrative today/tomorrow
(3:24:13 AM) sbbigsteve: Hrm... no, otherwise I'm making it the other divisions that got the furthest.
(3:24:13 AM) cmdrwilkens: Night guys
(3:24:30 AM) sbbigsteve: I probably should, since the Colombians would want to protect the locks more.
(3:24:37 AM) sbbigsteve: Anyway, go to bed, rogue and I will finalize this.

[Norseman]

Also since Colombia has no airplanes and an Air Tech of 0 that means either those MGs are mounted wing high or after shooting one down I will be able to find the nefarious truth of communist conspiracy when they are discovered with synchronizers

The airplanes are basically Sopwith Snipes so yes they have synchronizers and all the goodies you'd expect, they're also equipped with a Boa Vista Air Club decal in addition to the Colombian markings, and the pilots, though wearing Colombian Army uniforms also have a Boa Vista Air Club unit badge. Once the fighting start I am expecting quite a bit of attrition, after all these are old Bolivarian surplus aircraft, but then again airplanes exist to be spent and spend them I will.

EDIT: Seriously the bit about how a fripping *air club* flew their *trainers* across the border and had them equipped with machineguns is... well... It's a fig leaf used by the Brazilians to officially stay out of this war even if they're sending aid to the Colombians. These are fairly obviously purpose built military aircraft piloted by trained, albeit it mostly green, pilots.

[Thanas]

A quick note - Norseman and I are close to resolving the Kenyan crisis.

[Norseman]

Speaking of which, I'm just posting this in public mind, we need a place where we would have held our meeting. What I'm thinking of is Cairo, since the Brazilians probably have some connections there (Mordecai Heller's liquor import ) Also we will at times need a neutral arbitrator if there's a quarrel over various points in the treaty, would the Sultanate be willing to take on this role? Thanas also suggested Britain.

[Thanas]

To arrange for a quicker meeting, why not simply have the treaty being discussed by the respective ambassadors and then have them sign it?

[Norseman]

To arrange for a quicker meeting, why not simply have the treaty being discussed by the respective ambassadors and then have them sign it?

That could work, everyone involved could be present there, but it would also be fairly easy for the Congolese and the Germans to get proper representatives off to Cairo. These are details though, but I'm waiting for Siege's answer.

[Mr Bean]

Well since no one noticed I've left the game a week or two ago and stated I wanted someone to take over Britain for me. Czechmate stepped up and said he would but as far as I know did nothing towards it. So let it be know that Britain and her territories are up for some new player to take over.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Well since no one noticed I've left the game a week or two ago and stated I wanted someone to take over Britain for me. Czechmate stepped up and said he would but as far as I know did nothing towards it. So let it be know that Britain and her territories are up for some new player to take over.

I take it then that Singapore is solely mine to control then.

*whips up a major naval base*

Though personally, I would prefer someone else take control of Britain, what with most of the Baltics and others under Czech's control already.

Give it to another player who might be interested.

[loomer]

Hmm. Well, historically, Britain did have an interest in Afghanistan...

Oh, lets face it. I can't be trusted with anything but a landlocked shithole.

[Siege]

Speaking of which, I'm just posting this in public mind, we need a place where we would have held our meeting. What I'm thinking of is Cairo, since the Brazilians probably have some connections there (Mordecai Heller's liquor import ) Also we will at times need a neutral arbitrator if there's a quarrel over various points in the treaty, would the Sultanate be willing to take on this role? Thanas also suggested Britain.

Sure, that sounds like fun. The Sultanate is pretty much neutral in all world affairs that do not directly involve it or its immediate surroundings, so it stands to reason they'd make for a reasonable place to meet in such affairs.

[CmdrWilkens]

EDIT: Seriously the bit about how a fripping *air club* flew their *trainers* across the border and had them equipped with machineguns is... well... It's a fig leaf used by the Brazilians to officially stay out of this war even if they're sending aid to the Colombians. These are fairly obviously purpose built military aircraft piloted by trained, albeit it mostly green, pilots.

Well yeah, my point was moreso that the deception will be good until and unless I shoot down one of these purpose built machines and tear it apart to discover the manufacturing origins. Anyway as noted in the log if they left for Ciudad Bolivar on D+9 they should get there on D+9 and then be in theater (Ciudad Panama) around D+11 and flying their first missions on D+12.


Anyway I should have a writeup on the above sometime Monday since I have that day off. Ryan certainly beat up on my fleet (probably 9-12 months before those BCs and BBs are ready for sea again) but I got my troops ashore and 75-80% of the way to Gatun on D+11.

[Lascaris]

Logs for Wilkens' latest offensives:
(2:45:33 AM) sbbigsteve: No direct hits on gun turrets, but the walls take damage.
(2:45:51 AM) RogueIce: They're definately look north now.
(2:45:57 AM) sbbigsteve: I'd say you get the fort's attention.
(2:46:05 AM) cmdrwilkens: So Steve this is my main point I made to Shep/Ryan: What this really means is that he should be able to reasonably land 180 total hits before suffering increasingly severe loss of range and accurracy. Since I can rotate my units in and out of the engagement I'd be in fine shape. 210 hits distributed amongst 14 front line battleships equates to about 15 hits each...or 210 hits amongst 18 Battleships (if I brought the Mexicana or Virtuoso class in to play) works out to 11 2/3 (call it 12) hits per ship
(2:46:37 AM) sbbigsteve: And unless one of those is a golden BB it won't kill those ships generally.

Ok. First has anyone heard the term concentrated fire? Fire won't be willy nilly distributed against every battleship in sight. It will be directed at 1-2 targets till these are crippled or forced out of the line, then move to the next target till that one is crippled and so on.

Second even if the fire was idiotically distributed across every battleship in sight 14 hits per ship average isn't exactly something to be shrugged of. Particularly in the older ships and battlecruisers they could well be causing crippling damage.

Third Gran Colombia has 50 odd cruiser submarines in the Atlantic. One would be expecting at least a significant of them in the vicinity of the battle. No less than a dozen, probably more. Which coupled with the non existence of anything approaching a serious screen would mean oh say half a dozen battleships sunk from submarines.


As for the Darien landings. I won't go on whether the Colombians have lookouts over their whole coast. But the Mexicans after, yet one more successful multi-division landing with no specialist craft (allied militaries must really have been incompetent in WW2 to fail to manage even a fraction of that) in one of the most hostile terrains on Earth advance several dozen miles though a navigable river without being detected till they reach the rail line. Navigable river without any custom stations and patrols to at the very least keep an eye on contraband, in a country that is less than a democracy.?

Anyway lets assume that the two Mexican brigades somehow reach undetected the rail line. With no artillery to speak of, of course, I might be willing to forget where sufficient river boats for 10,000 men were found in the middle of Darien or gathered together along with the remaining invading armadas in Mexico but adding to that enough capacity to bring a divisions worth of artillery along... The point is at the moment the line isn't just in use. The Colombians ar moving division after division accros the line to Panama. So can someone explain to me why exactly the divisions en route don't hit immediately the poor Mexican units that have reached the rail line?